Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Binkov's Battlegrounds"
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The west wants to grind down Russia in Ukraine. the longer the war goes the weaker Russia gets. so 8 months into the war Russia is already doing partial mobilization , something not seen since WW2. Russia cannot keep on mobilizing or its risks damaging its economy and provokes unrest. Also the sanctions can get worse later, and sanctions are just slowly grinding down the Russian economy. Also Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in this war, 3K tanks and 6K APCs, number not seen since WW2. This is not just some insurgency like Chechnya or Afghanistan its a real full on conventional war fought with a bit more firepower than WW2. according to Prigozhin, the Ukraine war , the Russians are burning ammo 2X that of the battle of Stalingrad. and makes Chechnya look like kindergarden a walk in the park. The longer Russia is fighitng the war the worse it will be for Russia after the war. I think the Ukrs have to endure 2 years of war, I dont think Russia can keep up the war for 2 more years, Russian people are not the same Russian people of WW2. who were more hardier, and their morale was a lot higher and they were fighting for national survival , here the Russians view this war as a mistake.
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In the negotiations , PUtin will threaten to use more chems and maybe even nukes to stop more Ukrainian offensives. They'll claim they used chems since Ukrainians have just invaded Russian territory. or some BS like that.k Putin by this time knows his army is kaput. so wants a face saving reason for peace. with great bitterness. the Ukrs agree to part with the eastern part of the donbass but again Ukraine does not recognize this and Crimea's annexation. Ukraine will still not be part of the EU and NATO however very close cooperation with them. Massive marshal plan trillion dollars at least to repair Ukraine. For Russia, lifting of many sanctions, some still in place due to Russia's occupation of Crimea and East DOnbass. While its back to business as usual, Russia's economy has been badly hurt by the war and sanctions. war scared off the investors. Putin tightens his hold on Russia, scaring millions to leave the country. Europeans really offended by the large scale use of chems by the Russians which not only kills Ukr soldiers but also lots of civilians. boycotts of Russian products worldwide esp. in the 1st world continues. Economic chaos in Russia. China steps in besides lending money to Russia to keep the the Russian economy alive, China starts also getting Russian resources are bargain prices. China also buys a lot of Russian weapon systems , submarines missles etc. However Putin's leadership stops the Chinese from buying off Russian companies. Putin tries to reform the Russian army downsizes it massively tries to make it more professional but this is slow going since Russia has other more pressing matters to attend to. The Russian army has stopped becoming a strong monolithic army to a territorial defense force. Putin probably dies in the next five to ten years. Reputation broken, legacy kaput , Russia is in sort of political chaos first free elections in Russia. Next Russian leadership is more acceptable to the west. However Russian economy while stabilized is still in bad shape, just like the 90s. and with Putin gone. China steps in more, buys up more Russian corporations, extends her influence into Central Asia Caucasus for their very important resources. The war in Ukraine has really been beneficial to China having gotten CHina access to cheap resources , upgraded its weapons tech, not surpirsed CHina hires out Russian scientists to upgrade its weapons systems for a future showdown with the USA. Russia has effectively become a economic vassal to China. Belarus , LUkashenko gone, democratic Belarus gov. which similiar to Ukraine goes heavilly to the west, lots of USA , 1st world investments that fled Russia go into Ukraine and Belarus. Im not surprised after Putin is gone, wih the price of massive economic aid and lifting of the rest of the sanctions, , Russia can agree to have Ukraine and Belarus join the EU but not NATO, probably even Moldova. Giving back Crimea and Donbass are very dicey political topics the Russians will not give those up. Due to the war Russia has lost prestige, and has become a scorned laughingstock. Its oligrachs have also lost a lot since the west sequestered confiscated a lot of their assets due to the massive use of Chemical weapons by the Russians.
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