Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Binkov's Battlegrounds"
channel.
-
73
-
28
-
25
-
21
-
19
-
18
-
17
-
Putin's days are not only numbered but so is Russia's , Putin's actions will have great effects on the Russian federation, I forsee after the war is over , post Putin Russia has lost the war, Political economic and social chaos in Russia. Something similiar to 1917 all over again. which will last for a few years. I dont think it will be a civil war, but it will be the breakdown of law and order, in Russia, collapse of the Russian economy, many PMCs and militias popping up all over the place and being the law and order of the area, power plants break down, many areas of Russia without power and internet, criminals , anyone with the gun and can organize become the new rule of law. Millions of Russian refugees will flee to their neighbours many will die when winter sets in and they get stuck at the borders in the dead of winter out int he open. with inadequate winter clothing and heating. Millions of Russians will die from this time of chaos which will last a few years, not only due to murder but also to the breakdwon of transport infrastructure, and the Russian ruble becoming worthless, Russian economy effecitvely becomes a barter economy where USD EUro UK pounds, Chinse Yuan and crypto are accepted and Russian ruble is toilet paper which makes food expensive and valuable , also millions of pensioners will lose their pensions and have to cope with hunger and bad winters. Im not surprised if UN Central Asians, Chinese and NATO troops are forced to deploy to Russia to maintain peace and order . and to stop the massive flow of refugees to their countries.
17
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
15
-
15
-
and also not only does ukraine heavilly outnumber the Russians but also add in the force mulitipliers that Ukraine has highly motivated high morale, troops, know their home terrritory, better tactics, armed with the latest ATGMs from NATO, bit better managed logistics, good coordination better military leaders, superior intel and you compare that to the Russians who have: low morale low motivation, poorly trained, poor coordination , no unified military coommand, poor morale , mismanaged bad logistics, poor military leaders, more fragile political situation the only things superior for the Russians are artillery, navy and air power.
14
-
14
-
12
-
12
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
Russian failures are all across the board here. Putin only wants good news, you give him bad news realistic assessments he will fire you. so his own people gave him the wrong assesments ti keep their jobs. bad corruption for several decades hollowed out the Russian army. Poor centralized doctrine not much different from the Soviets times, poor morale, unmotivated. corrupt poor Russian army leadership across the board. poor pay of Russian soldiers poor equipment , poor logistics. Yep the Russian army really blundered into this one, very simliar to the winter war of 1940. and the Russian army currently is a huge elephnat with arthritis and can only do limited offensives and cannot win the war. so is scaling down its objectives to like only the Donbass, LOL. in fact, I htink the Ukrainians are in a bit better positions the Russians have run out of reserves, they cant call up general mobilization since PUtin might get kicked out and you are only throwing in even more poor quality soldiers into the meatgrinder. The Ukr army stil has tens of thousands of reserves being trained and the Ukr army will soon go into counter offensive, the Russian army is a good target to be hit by a major knockout blow offensive and can collapse a major portion of their army similiar to what happened to the German army in Bagration 44. Im thinking this will happen in the next month or two. However I do think Putin with his army collapsing will probably use massive amounts of chemical weapons to stop the offensive then on to peace talks. and in the peace talks for the Russians the war is lost but Putin still waves around his nukes and chems to try to get what he wants. but his army is gone. Probably suffered a 25 percent loss. I think the peace will end up with the Russians keeping part of the Donbass. a withdrawing from the rest of Ukraine. many of teh sanctions will end. but some will remain. Also Ukraine will not recognize Donbass and Crimea both of which will be annexed by Russia. Tensions still bad between Russia and Ukraine, and NATO gives assurances, that they will intervene if Ukraine gets attacked again. putin still keeps power and tightens up his control over Russia, millions of Russians fleet from the country and refugee to Europe and North America, Austrralia. Many Russian soldiers dont go back to Russia and refugee in Europe.
7
-
7
-
7
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
The west wants to grind down Russia in Ukraine. the longer the war goes the weaker Russia gets. so 8 months into the war Russia is already doing partial mobilization , something not seen since WW2. Russia cannot keep on mobilizing or its risks damaging its economy and provokes unrest. Also the sanctions can get worse later, and sanctions are just slowly grinding down the Russian economy. Also Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in this war, 3K tanks and 6K APCs, number not seen since WW2. This is not just some insurgency like Chechnya or Afghanistan its a real full on conventional war fought with a bit more firepower than WW2. according to Prigozhin, the Ukraine war , the Russians are burning ammo 2X that of the battle of Stalingrad. and makes Chechnya look like kindergarden a walk in the park. The longer Russia is fighitng the war the worse it will be for Russia after the war. I think the Ukrs have to endure 2 years of war, I dont think Russia can keep up the war for 2 more years, Russian people are not the same Russian people of WW2. who were more hardier, and their morale was a lot higher and they were fighting for national survival , here the Russians view this war as a mistake.
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
In the negotiations , PUtin will threaten to use more chems and maybe even nukes to stop more Ukrainian offensives. They'll claim they used chems since Ukrainians have just invaded Russian territory. or some BS like that.k Putin by this time knows his army is kaput. so wants a face saving reason for peace. with great bitterness. the Ukrs agree to part with the eastern part of the donbass but again Ukraine does not recognize this and Crimea's annexation. Ukraine will still not be part of the EU and NATO however very close cooperation with them. Massive marshal plan trillion dollars at least to repair Ukraine. For Russia, lifting of many sanctions, some still in place due to Russia's occupation of Crimea and East DOnbass. While its back to business as usual, Russia's economy has been badly hurt by the war and sanctions. war scared off the investors. Putin tightens his hold on Russia, scaring millions to leave the country. Europeans really offended by the large scale use of chems by the Russians which not only kills Ukr soldiers but also lots of civilians. boycotts of Russian products worldwide esp. in the 1st world continues. Economic chaos in Russia. China steps in besides lending money to Russia to keep the the Russian economy alive, China starts also getting Russian resources are bargain prices. China also buys a lot of Russian weapon systems , submarines missles etc. However Putin's leadership stops the Chinese from buying off Russian companies. Putin tries to reform the Russian army downsizes it massively tries to make it more professional but this is slow going since Russia has other more pressing matters to attend to. The Russian army has stopped becoming a strong monolithic army to a territorial defense force. Putin probably dies in the next five to ten years. Reputation broken, legacy kaput , Russia is in sort of political chaos first free elections in Russia. Next Russian leadership is more acceptable to the west. However Russian economy while stabilized is still in bad shape, just like the 90s. and with Putin gone. China steps in more, buys up more Russian corporations, extends her influence into Central Asia Caucasus for their very important resources. The war in Ukraine has really been beneficial to China having gotten CHina access to cheap resources , upgraded its weapons tech, not surpirsed CHina hires out Russian scientists to upgrade its weapons systems for a future showdown with the USA. Russia has effectively become a economic vassal to China. Belarus , LUkashenko gone, democratic Belarus gov. which similiar to Ukraine goes heavilly to the west, lots of USA , 1st world investments that fled Russia go into Ukraine and Belarus. Im not surprised after Putin is gone, wih the price of massive economic aid and lifting of the rest of the sanctions, , Russia can agree to have Ukraine and Belarus join the EU but not NATO, probably even Moldova. Giving back Crimea and Donbass are very dicey political topics the Russians will not give those up. Due to the war Russia has lost prestige, and has become a scorned laughingstock. Its oligrachs have also lost a lot since the west sequestered confiscated a lot of their assets due to the massive use of Chemical weapons by the Russians.
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
My view, Pacific war , starting in Dec 1950 caused by US freezing of japanese assets in 1950. Japanese plan for conquering the Philippines , Hawaii, panama canal and landings in the US west coast. The Japanese would sweep hard across the pacific, however the going is hard in the Philippines, as the defenders give the Japanese heavy losses while falling. in about several months. Hawaii falls fast. Japanese also capture the Panama Canal. the USN Pacific fleet is virtually destroyed. Japanese make landings in the US west coast. in 1951 and capture parts of it but have a tough time going due to fierce resistance. , lots of atrocities vs. American civlians, while the USA is momentarilly cowed and stunned, there is great outrage and calls for war and revenge vs. the Japanese. While the other great powers would not side with anyone, the USA might probably get Mexico and a bunch of Latin American states on its side vs. Japan. with the USA itself invaded the USA mass mobilizes and swtiches to a war economy. Japanese are pushed out of the US west coast and panama by mid 1951Probalby would take the USA to 1953 to take the fight to the Japanese in the pacific There would be no nukes, and the USA would be fully focused on Japan. with nothing but unconditional surrender in mind despite attempts by the Japanese for a negotiated armistice. while the USA has overwhelming industrial might and a bigger population they are hampered by a poor military position at the start of the war and a much stronger japanese military. the war takes longer than our timeline, maybe takes even 6 years.US is very much straighforward not only evicting japanese military from the Pacific and USA territories but going straight for the jugular and for a possible invasion of the Japanese home islands. USA would probalb win in the end with massive losses and probably the conquest of the japanese home islands and the collapse of the Japanese empire, USSR probably takes advantage by seizing manchuria and Korea.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
the Ukr Kharkov offensive in late 2022 was a unmitigated disaster for the Russians, the worst they suffered in the war, the Russians lost several hundred tanks and APC lost , as the Russian front there collapsed, Russian troops ran away abandoned their vehicles and positions even stole bicycles and ran back to Russia, at Izyum alone, the Ukrainians captured 450 tanks and APCs in various states of disrepair since Izyum was a Russian logistics and vehicle repair hub. Also the Russians in their desperation sent in their conscrupts who were barely trained many only trained for a week at most. sent with T-90s and 80s and whatever tank or APC was at hand but they also got creamed and defeated by the Ukrainians resulting in these new recruits panicking abandoning their vehicles and running away. It was that bad. So the Russians just gave several hundred tanks and APCs including a handful of T-90Ms, one of which was last seen being shipped to the USA for study. haha. Many of the abandoned tanks were in good condition, Ukrs just repaired refuelled them and deployed them against their former Russian owners...LOL. it was that embarassing for Russia hahaha and I find it amusing that Russians like to crow about the few Leopard 2s the Ukrs lost hahahaha. while the Russians lost several thousand Russians tanks ranging from vintage museum T-55s to the latest T-90Ms, so far in this war, the Ukrs lost far less. In fact its so bad the biggest tank donor to the Ukrs are the Russians Its that EMBARASSING. Its so bad that before the war , 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the Russian federation. now 1.5 years later, 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the USSR. its so bad not only are the Russians bringing out their T-55s from storage which the last time the Russians used them in large numbers was during hte invasio oif Czechoslovakia in 1968, the SOviet never used them in Afghanistan. heck its even worse the Russians are bringing out their T-10 heavy tank, made before the T-55 hahaah. So what next , will the Russians bring out....IS-3s and T-34s hahahahaah.
1
-
if the war went on for one more year like 1919 , The USA would have conquered all of Canada and the British Carrabean. Stalemate in the western front, Probable armistice as Communist revolutions sweep the Austro hungarian empire , Russian empire, Germany and France. Maybe , the whole Western and central europe would turn into Commie states. with the exception of Great Britain., Spain , Portugal , Greece, Ottoman Empire would maintain hold, Italy later becomes a socialist fascist dictatorship under Mussolini. The Soviets would win the Battle of Warsaw in 1920 paving the way for direct intervention in the German and Austro Hungarian revolutions. WW2 might look like USSR and allied German, French , Turkish, European communist states vs. USA, British and Japanese empires fighting over the Middle East and China.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
another one, I think the Loss of India due to independence would probably lead to the gradual decolonization of the British empire in the 60s like in OTL becoming a commonwealth, this esp. in the face. of a new power balance post WW3 1950 to 1956. (I posited WW3 in this timeline would be Germany vs. the USSR, Japan vs. the USA with the British neutral. I think Germany vs. USSR round 2, would result in the USSR pushing all the way tot he Pyrenees. conquering all of Western and Eastern Europe with the exception of Spain and Portugal(British troops land there to protect them from the USSR). commie revolutions in France and Italy make conquests easier. Japan is conquered by the USA and later turned into a USA territory like Puerto Rico, I posit the USA lost like 1.5 million dead in the pacific war tht the USA would not give the Japanese independence(the Japaanese probably lost like 15 million dead in the war or roughly ten percent of its population. ) and turn it into an American territory. purge its military and civlian leadership with thousands hanged is post war war crimes trials. USSR would probably conquer manchuria, Korea, and Hokkaido and the Sakhalins. China woud turn commie under the CCP and support commie rebellions in indochina, Burma. New cold war between USA and the USSR. starting 1957. Again no nukes are developed in this timeline's WW3 but a bunch of innovations are used like mass use of jet fighters, long range missles.,.use of computers(USA) for logistics management, mass use of assault rifles(Germany , USSR). Atomic bombs are probably devleoped during the cold war but not used in war. Maybe in WW4 between the USA and USSR.
1
-
well the longer the war goes, the more the Russian economy bleeds and with the coming worldwide recession depression will crash oil and gas prices and crumble the Russian economy will impact its war making capabilities, the Russian economy will simply be unable to the fund the war resulting in unrest food shortages etc. that will end the war. that is why I think the war will end by late 2023. Collapsing Russian economy leading to unrest , by that time, the Russians will probably have taken the donbass but bogged down trying to form a bridge to transnistria . The war is an expensive static in eastern and southern ukraine, becoming like the later stages of the iran iraq war. a war of attirtion with tanks and modern aircraft. However the Russian forces in Ukraine are in a poor shape using weapons from the 20th century(not surprised they are fielding T-55s). Putin and his inner circle is purged and a new gov takes over that declares a arministice ceasefire, meanwhile, Ukraine has enjoyed battlefield victories taking advantage of the sorry state of the Russian army and discruption of command and control due to the unrest in Russia. manages to take back huge porition of Ukraine. In the end , there is a negotiated peace for hte Russian army to withdraw completely back to Russia but still keep the Crimea. However the withdrawal is chaotic and the Russians practically abandon their troops in Ukraine who are forced to go back to Russia by themselves with no support. Crimea is later given back to Ukraine a few years later in exchange for the complete lifting of sanctions and economic aid. the burden on the Ruissian economy is simply very catastrophic with very bad sanctons which results in the Europeans mostly stop buying energy sources or even trading with teh RUssians , to a global recession depression which results in the collapse of the oil and gas prices whcih the Russian economy is reliant on along with the expense of running the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy simply has fallen apart resulting in a Russian revolution. and the decade of the 2020s will be historic for Russia as it will see Russia lose from 25 to 50 percent of its current territory to secession as multiple Russian republics declare independence due to political chaos and economic depression. and the Russian army mainly demobilizing as its economy collapses. and collapse in morale due to the defeat in the Ukraine war. Russia becomes a proxy battleground between USA and China. for its resources. By 2030 Russia still exists but 25 to 50 percent smaller with the secession of its repubclics in the Caucasus , Siberia and the Far East.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1