Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Professor Tim Wilson"
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yes always have a plan B and C. and maybe even D just in case that is why Zelensky did not criticize trump at all. he smart hedging his bets. so now its Plan B. time to butter up trump and play games , 2025 will be game negotiations with Trump. In my opinoin the situation is Trump is pres. Trump is for himself , Trump has lots of assets and investments in Russia, also borrowed lots o money from Russian, lots of Russian investments in his companies. So Trump really has vested interest with Putin. HOWEVER....the big guys in the USA and European political and military industria infrastructure have a vested interest to see Russia not win this war, their goal, a much weakened economically and military Russia without Putin and a weak Russian gov. but a Russia stable and not in civil war. Trump may think he is da man, but nope he has to answer to these people. who are much richer than he is.
So Trump probably has a vested interest which coincides with the vested interest of the leaders of the American political sphere and military industrial complex. A weakened Russia stable with a weak gov is easilly exploitable by US companies for its cheap natural resources esp . by Trump who is just salivating to get more money from this. and also with Ukraine, the big boys in the US gov and miltiary want Ukraine to not only survive but serve as a foil vs. Russia. Like a wall to keep Russia out of Europe. and to that end , USA and the Europeans want a strong Ukrainian military and a stable ukrainian gov . and the hundreds of billions of USD in Ukrainian reconstruction money comiong will handsomely benefit trump .
So I think 2025 will be the year of negotiations, and the war will go on, and there is an even chance the USA continues military aid to Ukraine even under trump. Seeing that possibly in 2026 you might see the start of the collapse of the Russian economy with hyperinflation along with widespread discontent which leads to Putin getting removed from power.
So in the future maybe in the USA interest to keep a strong Ukraine hostile to the Russians to act as a wall for Europe, and a Russia will a weak Russian gov and military but with a stable more or less gov that is easilly exploitable for its cheapo natural resources.
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not surprised if Patrushev is running Russia right now having won the struggle with SHoigu, so after Putin went belly up and frozen, the FSB/Rosgvardia(under Patrushev) and the Russian army/GRU(under Shoigu) were ruling Russia jointly but there was a power struggle in the background. However starting early 2024 due to the poor Russian army performance in Ukraine, the FSB won the power struggle, hence Patrushev is in the driver's seat and SHoigu sidelined. Yep so you have a hardliner Patrushev running the show, with the FSB in command of the Russian army. and the war in Ukraine. If that is so, Ive heard Patrushev is even more of a war hawk than Putin and has maximalist goals on Ukraine. If the war goes on and bloodily stalemated with a depressed Russian economy, Patrushev may well lose his position, however from what I heard, Patrushev/FSB won the power struggle handidly and effectively removed Shoigu's supporters in the Russian army and gov. and Patrushev boys are now firmly in charge of the Russian army. so there is really no major faction to challenge Patrushev/FSB for now. Patrushev has also purged (fired and or arrested) possible dissenters in the Russian army. the Loud mouth Prigozhin is dead, Surovikin I hear has been arrested, Igor Girkin is languishing in prison. (rumored to be dead). Navalny dead. and so on, that means Patrushev probably cleaned out purged any possible rival to his regime. and now the Russian army officer corps are populated by yes men and FSB informants. along with lots of micromanagement down to the battalion level from the Kremlin. That is why you notice the Russian army tactics are not just plain jane unimaginative attritional meat attacks. However I do hear a lot of grumblings in the Russian officer corps and many are not happy with how the war is being run. So if the Patrushev flubs up, we could see possible revolt from the Russian army.
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