Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Econ Lessons" channel.

  1. I dont believe in BS polls Alan LIchtman 13 keys to the white house, he has been right 90 percent on his USA presidential eelction predictions since 1984. He predicts a Harris win in 2024. and the polls have been mostly wrong in all USA presidential elections. Things can change. rapidly in a short time. I think there will be a massive surprise this elections which will blow away the pollings.
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  2. also yah the Russian soldiers may be paid 2 million rubles or 22K USD just as a sign up bonus to fight vs. the Ukrainians but when hyperinflation kicks in that 2 million Rubles may be worth what 2 USD. and the soldiers are paid in Rubles. You simply cannot save rubles these days so either you spend them fast or you buy USD Euro or any other stable currency and store them like in a safe in your house or some secret place since if you put them in the bank, the bank will alert the Russian gov and you may have your USD confiscated. and the banks will only sell you limited amounts of USD. so who to turn to...the Russian black market which Ive heard sells USD for like 400 Rubles to 1 USD. hahah. and if you buy rubles from them the rate is like 100 rubles 1 USD. Here is Vancouver Canada , most exchange stores dont even take Rubles , but those who do the rate is selling Rubles 200 Rubles = 1 CAD, buying Rubles 1 CAD = 40 rubles haha, and the exchange rate is 1 CAD = 76 rubles.
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  3.  @johnhough7738  LOL Laugh out loud
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  4. the Russian oligarch church is fake, its leader is a former KGB agent. and buddy of Putin.
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  5. not only taht the Russians are spending lots of money to repair and refurbish their stored Russian weapons since many dont work, they have been maintained and stored badly many Russian tanks and APCs are unrepairable and used for spare parts.
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  6. yep and the PLA is the biggest mega corporation in China owning lots of different companies from making weapons to smart phones to dollar store nick knacks. Yep despite reports the PLA corporations has been broken up I dont believe it.
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  7. I predict after the war is over, the Russian economy will experience massive Zimbabwe style hyperinflation, in fact the USD Euro and other stable economies will be accepted even crypto will be accepted over the Russian ruble .
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  8. There are already a bunch of board wargames published on the current war In Ukraine and the 2014 Ukraine war. and for future reference also a bunch of wargames on a future Russian civil war.
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  9. Future Russians decades will look back to all these and ask how the Russians of 2024 esp. the older generations be so STUPID, to have supported a shit like Putin and caused the bloody Russian civil war. Putin's legacy will be shit. He will be compared by future Russians to hitler and Czar Nicholas II. Some future deluded Russians might try to rehabilitate his name but there will be streets named after him(the one in Grozny will be renamed after Kadyrov is gone and Chechnya becomes an independent state), no monuments to his name, his legacy is shit, his wealth probably stolen by his buddies, his family may be killed(like the familiy of Czar nicholas II). Future Russians will revile his name. Putin will be much studied by future and current historians. Ukraine on the other hand , will be rebuilt with trillions of USD in investments from the west. Economy will boom, it will be accepted into the EU and NATO. Ukraine will be used as a main forward base by the USA and her allies to support their proxies in the coming Russian civil war. So even more investments on the Ukrainian economy. Zelensky will be lauded as one of the greatest leaders of the 21st century, there will be streets towns, monuments to his name. He will be compared to Churchill. He will be lauded as a hero. Heck not surprised if Russians actually wished that Zelensky was there leader instead of Putin. Zelensky will be much studied by future and current historians.
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  10. the loss of the first chechen war was pretty bad, the Russian generals abandoned their own men, and the Russian soldiers in Chechnya had to hitchhike or beg for train fares back to Russia. HOwever, the Yeltsin gov did not collapse due to heavy western aid and support to Russia at the time and trade with Russia. however the embarassing defeat paved the way for Putin to take over a few years later.
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  11.  @EconLessons  the pegged price is so amusing at 1 USD = 88 Russian rubles. when a few days ago Russian banks were offering buying USD at 200 russian rubles to 1 USD. before Russian gov pressure made them change it back to 90 Russian rubles to 1 USD. haha Buying Rubles was still 1 USD = 50 rubles haha
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  12. well I hear early in this war in 2022 that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was caused partly by his enforced isolation due to covid fears(cabin fever) and steroids and other medications to treat his parkinsons and rumored cancer. All this worked on his ego which caused him to give the go ahead for the invasion.
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  13. so my scenario here is that you have a Trump admin who will probably do all it says during the presidential campaign like massive rise in tariffs, withdrawal from NATO, USA effectively becomes isolationist. the rest of NATO EU step up in a dramatic way and replace USA aid to Ukraine as peace talks break down. with UK and French troops deploying to Ukraine HOwever USA ups its oil drilling massively bringing down world oil prices, which strongly impacts the RUssian economy. Russia does not do war with NATO even with USA withdrawal and Trump stating the RUssians can do whatever it wants with NATO, Russians do not attack NATO countries since its military is near total committed to Ukraine and does not have enough forces to take on NATO even without USA out of the organization. War goes on , this time, Ukraine is not constrained anymore by the Americans, a lot more Ukrainian bombing of Russian oil infrastructure ammo dumps etc. hits the Russians hard. The war goes on, the Russians step up yes probalby gain more land at thte same rate but getting massive casualties ,
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  14. yah or you could be like Charlie Bronson become a brawler underground bare knuckle fighter make good money in cash only to have it squandered by your manager James Coburn.
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  15. also depends on what happens in the EU. without USA aid and USA dallying on its NATO membership and worrying statements from Trump and EU fears of Russian aggression on NATO members, I think the rest of NATO will break from the USA. and this time with urgency rearming and covering up the USA aid to Ukraine, USA stops sending aid to Ukraine, the rest of EU/NATO steps up dramatically. Yes USA may withdraw from NATO lifts all the sanctions on Russia, but the EU NATO and allies do not comply with the USA and breaks from it. and steps up aid to Ukraine. This time, there is a sense of urgency and then you dont have delayed aid anymore from NATO members since the USA is blocking them politically, thsi time the pro Ukraine NATO members do not listen to the USA then massively ups the aid to Ukraine. Russia threatens war but its army is so much stuck in Ukraine cant even do much , but do sabre rattling, France UK, send troops to Ukraine. and lift all the restrictions on their weapons use on Russian soil. France and UK probably threaten the Russians too of war if nukes are used. the French and UK may have much smaller stockpiles than the Russians but they will mostly work, the Russian nukes are very much in question , my estimate 75 percent of it will not work.
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  16. if Putin did not invade Ukraine, Putin would have been known in Russian history as the best post soviet pres. however due to his ego and probably all those steroids and drugs he was taking for his illnesses and fear of covid plus lockdowns, made him loopy. and caused him to make very stupid decisions like invading Ukraine.
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  17. I find it very amusing here in Vancouver Canada currency exchanges, most of them do not accept the Russian ruble those that do the exchange rate is when selling the Russian ruble to CAD the exchange rate is 150 Russian Rubles to 1 CAD(official exchange rate is 1 CAD -= 70 Russian Rubles) when buying Russian rubles its 1 CAD to 50 Russian rubles haha. what a joke,
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  18. you mean Russian ruble will be future weimar toilet paper money
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  19. also getting popular in Russia is the buying of USD backed Stable coins like USDC and USDT from exchanges like Binance. Yep Russians know the Ruble is shit and headed for hyperinflation so buying Crypto Stable coins is the way to go since buying USD from banks suck and limited, and buying USD from the black market too expensive. also Russian banks allow fiat cashed out from crypto exchanges however I do think the people probably have to cash out in limited amounts so their accounts dont get flag and reported to the Russian gov.
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  20.  @EconLessons  Yep its that bad, even in the cold war 70s and 80s, the T-55 was designated as a Soviet donation tank to their third world clients , in the Soviet army it was kept in storage to be given only to Soviet Category C units, those are the units which are only mobilized in desperation when the front line Category A and B units are badly depleted or destroyed. So the Russians fielding the T-55 is an act of desperation. I think they would have fielded the T-34 but the Soviets and Russians scrapped them all or sent them to their clients in the cold war. The ones they bring out during every may day parades were actually imported from Vietnam!!!!
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  21. I predict after this war is over, Russia will go back to the 90s on steroids. Russian oligarchs backed up by PMCs will rule Russia through their puppet gov. officials, the Russian army will be a joke a shell of its formal self. the real miltiary power of Russia will be the PMCs. So Imagine a Russia with a Russian ruble in hyperinflation, the Russian currency has unofficially dollarized since no one accepts the Russian ruble. and would rather accept USD, EUros, crypto gold and even barter trade. Russia becomes a failed narco state. with a weak corrupt as hell Moscow gov and Russian military and Oligarchs and criminal gangs monopolize the economy and resources of Russia and they use their PMCs and influence in the Russian gov to impose their will. Russia becomes like an African nation as the name of the game is resource extraction to export to other countries along with the USA and China treating Russia as the new great game, vying for influence in the country for its resources. Also Russia the narco state, due to a much weaker Russia gov control, criminal gangs both foreign and domestic run amuck, the country becomes a source for smuggling of all kinds esp. military grade weapons and narcotics to the west. heck not surpirsed if they start growing opium , and other narcotics sources, as well as industrial scale manufacture and processing of narcotics for sale in the west. Not even surprised if you have piracy as criminal gangs use Russian ports as bases for piracy in the Baltic , North Atlantic , Caspian seas. Yep Russia in time of troubles 2.0 will look like an African country, maybe like the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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  22. yah DOGE and PEPE memecoins become more valuable than the Russian ruble its that bad,
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  23. I think many more Russians will be leaving Russia in teh next decade or so. esp., after teh war is over. Things will get worse in Russia.
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  24.  @MS-ii1sv  /Yah China and Russia improved a lot. then again the current gov is making mistakes that might erase all their gains.
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  25. who would have thunk the USA shot itself in the head and joined the Axis of evil.
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  26. yah Crimea is better off with Ukraine and part of the EU. HOwever I think in the future Crimea will probablyi still be militarized, since as I said before Russia is going to go into civil war after Putin is gone and Russia has lost this war, Im not surprised if the Russian civil war warlords start doing somalia style piracy in teh black sea to supplement their income since there is no central gov to control their guys. Not surprised in a Russia in civil war, NATO will have to respond to Russian piracy of shipping in the Black sea with some sort of intervention, and Crimea will be used as a forward NATO base.to handle things in Southern Russia and the Black sea. Also Crimea might have to deal with lots of Russian refugees trying to escape from a Russia in civil war. Yah back in the 80s you had the Vietnamese doing that to escape from a communist Vietnam, the new boat people of the 21st century might be the Russians.
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  27. not surprised if a future Russian economy becomes dollarized, like Ruble is considered monopoly money where Russians would rather trade in Pepe crypto than the Ruble.
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  28. yah I remember in the 70s and 80s the world media esp. the communist bloc propoganda was harping all about the fall of the USA and capitalism and western democracy due to victory of the USSR and decadence in the west. Nope...USA and western democracies won the cold war USSR collapsed and broke up in 1990 , China has graduated from a agrarian Maoist communist state to a Authoritarian one party capitalist state who still does lip service of being communist. Russia has evolved from a one party communist state being hte successor state of the USSR to a multi party authoritarian capitalist state(reminds me of the third world capitalist American aligned dictatorships of the cold war era like Marcos Philippines, Somoza Nicaragua and Pinochet Chile etc. ) where one man has been dictator and president for life since 2000.
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  29. not only that one all this woke nonsense really damaged the chances of Kamala to win, also interesting that 45 percent of California voted for Trump , USA cities experiencing high crime rates due to police being defunded , bail reform which criminals only have to pay 10 percent of the bail. let out to do more crime, also police not enforcing the law , yep a lot of the people who voted for trump were US business owners that are being affected by all this and more.
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  30.  @nattygsbord  in this case the Russian gov is spending the lifeblood of the country just to keep a ahole like Puitn in power and not out of a window.
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  31.  @nattygsbord  Yep and Russia's idiotic actions during this war will make things worse after the war is over.
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  32.  @marcbjorg4823  you mean 300K dead Russians 300K wounded Russians 100K dead UkraInians. 300K wounded Ukrainians. who is winning???
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  33. its going to get worse in Russia, after the Ukraine war is over, Russia is probably going into civil war. as they did in 1917 when your grandparents left. Yep you have economic collapse coupled with a lost war, coupled with many PMCs(private military companies) being formed by oligarchs, politicos and regional governors. and the fact that Russia is held together by one guy called Putin and his inner circle. Putin does not have anyone to take over from him who is as capable as he is in keeping Russia together. Very simliar to the situation in 1917.
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  34. Im thinking more like 1917 2.0 will happen to the Russian Fed in the next few years. The Russians are not fighting for their motherland and survival but for the survival of one ahole called Putin and his regime.
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  35.  @slippingsnake  haha
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  36.  @EconLessons  loved SPI however the majority of my games were from Avalon Hill. and yah SPI was massive but It was hard to get them outside the USA, I used to live in Manila , Philippines in the 70s to the early 90s and got my board wargames from Japan, Hong Kong and locally and at the time Avalon Hill was jsut all over the place like you can buy them in Hong Kong and Japnaese department stores while SPI games were rare. My first board wargame that I collected was Samurai from Avalon hill bought from a Daimaru dept store in Osaka Japan. The first hex CRT game I collected was Operation Konrad designed by Perry Moore published by Close Simulations bought from a Hong Kong book store in Kowloon back in 85.
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  37. I dont think russia has a long term economic plan its just trying to survive this war, I predict after the war is over, Russian economy will crash, and Russia might even break up. and then you will see multiple seperate economies rise from the Russian federation.
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  38. in vancouver Canada these days, most exchanges dont even accept RUR(Russian ruble) and the few who do have crazy exchange rates . I know one exchange ini Gas town that will buy RUR at 130 to 1 CAD(the official exchange rate is 76 RUR to 1 CAD), however if you want to buy RUR its 1 CAD to 40 rubles hahaha, so they want to get rid of their rubles.
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  39.  @EconLessons  also in a real prison or he ends up like Epstein.
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  40. my personal view the chances of a collapse will increase when Biden wins this yeasr and esp. when the dems sweep congress and senate. This will cause a political tsunami in the Kremlin. and I think war will end in 2025 probably mid to late 2025. The Russian elites cut their losses , like stalin , Putin dies of "natural causes" , in reality a palace coup occurs. and you have negotiation to end the war. and like the Korean war which ended a few months after the death of Stalin in 1953, the war ends a few months after the death of Putin with the new Russian gov ordering the withdrawal from all of Ukraine, in exchange there is a formal peace treaty, liting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west, all frozen Russian money in western banks are unfrozen, no war crimes trials or ICC arrest warrants for Russian leaders.
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  41. Trump musk and his maga ahole buddies have all been paid for with Russian oligarch money.
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  42. my view is that when Biden wins this year 2024 and the dems sweep the house and senate, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war effort in Ukraine and later lead to a Russsian civil war. Yes Russia will be reformatted but it will have to undergo 1917 2.0 again. it will have to undergo lots of bloodshed and national humiliation before rising up to a new form. I think the war in Ukraine will end when Russia goes into civil war in 2027 , which causes the collapse of not only the Russian gov but also the economy and the Russian army in Ukraine. The Ukrs will take advantage of this and launch major offensives to collapse the Russian army in Ukraine which undergoes a rapid collapse as whole units dissolve in surrender and mutinies and desertion . Something on a scale not seen since the disintegration of teh Iraqi army in Kuwait during Desert storm 1991.
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  43.  @EconLessons well I believe in Alan LIchtman's 13 keys . So far it says Biden will win but well you never knows its been right 99 percent of the time since 1980
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  44. if you want to see a movie that shows a real Russia, its the first part of the movie Babylon AD(with Vin diesel)....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mTSyz3x-go
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  45. well either way if Ukraine loses this war, Ukraine wins later, after Putin dies and Russian economy collapses and Russia goes into civil war. Ukraine will regain its lost territories
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  46. even if this war ends in a draw and a trumpo negotiated armistice. Putin's prestige is very much damaged in the eyes of the Russian people and elites. Putin cannot spin this war as a victory. I think this war will lead to the break up of the Russian federation within the next decade. or less. and Russia becoming the largest failed state in the world. becoming a great game of influence between the USA China and Turkey. The break up of Russia will become the largest geopolitical mess in the 2030s. Ukraine will break all agreements an retake all its lost territories plus also annex more Russian ones. and this will be mostly disregarded. and the Ukrainians will be given carte blanche to do so by the USA and EU. Not surpirsed if NATO, Chinese and UN troops get deployed in Russia , something not seen since the 1917 to 1922 Russian civil war. Ukraine will be the graveyard of the Russian federation.
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  47.  @Notrusbot  and you are a russian bot haha
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  48. yah USA trumpo wants Canada and Panama annexed, very amusing highly doubt it he will be able to do that in fact, Congress and senate wont even ratify that one despite Rep majorities, and the rep party is having their own civil wars right now. Heck trumpos deportation policies will probably be much opposed even by governors of blue states. So trump may bluster a lot of crap but as a pres he wont get anything done. Americans voted for shit , time to eat a big shit sandwhich
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  49. @volkerr. disagree I think things are going to get a lot worse, people think Biden was horrible no he was not , USA was still a lot sane under Biden
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  50. @ well hopefully or something worse happens due to the trump presidency. we shall see.
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