Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Econ Lessons"
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of course Poland, Poland has been better off than Russia since the 2000s and Russia is declining gradually. After the war is over, not surprised if millions of Russians will be streaming thru Poland to get to the west. Here in Vancouver Canada we have had waves of immigration from different countries , back in the 90s I remember it was from Somalia, former Yugoslav nations, Honduras, El Salvador, Hong Kong , China, being the largest immigrants now its the Indian students, but in the future oh say in a few years, you will see large numbers of Russians immigrating here in Canada.
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Russia currently is in a similar situation to the Russian empire before the 1917 Russian civil war. 40 percent of its budget is now geared to military spending. and its shifting 6 percent and more of its economy to war. its in a bloody stalemate not winning in Ukraine. suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses., more repression of free speech from the state. Rising food prices. It will get worse in the next few years culminating in Russia becoming more repressive suffering from venezuela style hyperinflation, suffering from battlefield defeats and even more significant casualties. This will trigger widespread protests in Russian cities , and lead to more Russian gov repression, and the match that causes the fire will be simliar to the start of the Russian civil war in 1917, Russian security forces massacre Russian civilian protesters which leads to a general mutiny in the Russian army,
As the Russian gov collapses so does the collapse of the command and control of the Russian army in Ukraine, which is taken advantage of by the Ukrainian army who launches major offensives which collapses the Russian army in Ukraine and Ukraine regains a lot of its lost territory in the offensives. The end of the Ukraine war ends not with a negotiation but with the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing in mass surrenders and desertions with their officers abandoning their troops just like in the end of the 1st Chechen war. There is no Russian gov to negotiate with .
The upcoming Russian civil war which I think starts in 2027(110 years from the start of the last one) wil be very bloody. and also have a lot of factions. I think the west and China will meddle in the war and support their proxies. However just line in the 1917 to 1922 civil war which had the Reds(communists) vs. the whites(anti communists), this civil war it will be Freedom/Liberty and the letter L who are supported by the west and Ukraine vs. the Nationalists/Patriots and the letter Z supported by China.
With the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, the Russians left massive amounts of weapons and military equipment , many of which will be given to the Russian Freedom Legion which I think will be massively expanded into a real army(from 2 current battalions as of April 2024). with recruits from the surrendered Russian soldiers in Ukraine and volunteers from Russia itself along with volunteers from Ukraine and other countries. and aided by support from the west.
The other side is like the whites during the 1917 Russian civil war, factionalized with an assortment of Russian nationalist movements and regional militias but with the uniting goal of being opposed to liberal democratic Russia that is influenced by the west. China supports it with funds and weapons.
The Freedom of Russia army is more coordinated and united with support from the west plus a head start in former Russian army weapons and equipment and large appeal from the Russian people. The Patriots also have a significant influence from the Russian people and initially have a bit larger recruit base but is poorly coordinated but support heavilly by China, Iran, North Korea etc.
The Russian civil war is bloody and also affects its neighbours as millions of Russian refugees cross into their countries with teh largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Also well armed Russian bandits raid into their neighbours and also become pirates, the Russian navy has practically devolved into a Pirate navy hijacking shipping in the black caspain and Baltic seas .
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as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change.
I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine.
In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc.
The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse.
Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline.
Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse.
Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956.
Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks.
All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them.
Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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my take on how Russia loses this war, Kamala Harris wins Nov 2024, even better if Congress and senate are controlled by the dems. and the USA massively ups aid to Ukraine in 2025. a Kamala Harris win alone in Nov 2024 wil cause a massive Political tsunami in Russia, the Russian elites know the Russian economy cant support another 4 years of war, and the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrell in terms of refurbishing Soviet stocks of tanks and APCs, even better if the Ukrainians score a major victory ont he battlefield. in 2025 I can see the Russian elites and disgruntled military officers start organizing to chuck Putin out of a window and get a new regime going which I think happens in 2025 or in 2026.
WIth a new regime , negotiations occur and the Russians totally withdraw from Ukraine including crimea, in exchange all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets unfrozen in Western banks, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. , normalization of relations with the west. a formal peace treaty recognizing borders. That is how the war ends with a Kamala harris win in 2024.
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my view the longer the war goes the more destroyed the Russian economy is, yes the Russian economy is currently experiencing growth but its artificial gov spending for the war economy to support the war in Ukraine. The longer the war goes, more money for Russian infrastructure, more of the civlian economy will be converted to manufacture of military supplies and equipment to support the war in Ukraine. Supposedly a whopping 40 percent of the current Russian budget 2024 is being spent on the war on Ukraine.
This is a long term disaster. and the Russian minister of economy has already stated that the Russian economy cannot handle this one indefinitely , there will be a turning point in the Russian economy starting with hyperinflation, rising prices of essentials such as food , gasoline etc. when the Russian economy starts collapsing.
This will cause resentment in Russia towards the Russian gov, of course this will lead to more unrest and more Gov crackdowns on dissent. also add to that discontent in the Russian military on how the war is being run. esp. when Russia after a biden win this year 2024, and facing a tank and APC shortage due to their cold war stocks running out by late 2025 and their tank and APC production and refurbishments cannot keep up with losses on the battlefield coupled with Ukrainian major victories in the front. Made worse by incompetent corrupt uncaring and rigid Russian military and political leadership.
Prigozhin's uprising in 2023 was only the first and he did it to address the incompetencies of Russian military command in Ukraine(among other things). I think a much bigger uprising will occur in the Russian military coupled with Russian civlian uprisings triggering a collapse of the Russian economy and then the Russian gov. and then collapse in the Russian military command.
Like a domino this will be the start of the Russian revolution 2.0 then civil war. or Time of troubles 2.0(or 3.0 whichever you prefer). This will be much worse than the 90s which the Russian like to hanker back on. The Russians will wish the 90s was back to what is coming for Russia.
The Russian civil war that is coming will be even more bloodier than the Ukraine war, it will be a massive geopolitical event like the 1917 to 1922 civil war and will probably draw international intervention( not surprised if UN peacekeeping troops are deployed in Russia), millions of Russian refugees and Russian dead. and Russia breaking up. It will be a geopolitical great game between USA and China as they support their proxies. Russia will become the largest failed state in the world. A massive version of Syria/Somalia.
The new Russia that will come out of the mess will probably be significantly smaller with new nations being born. I posit the largest of these will be the Russian federation with Moscow as its capital will one day decades after the civil war liberal and democratic finally thown down its Soviet shackles will join the EU and NATO.
When will this happen, ....my estimates, analysts say the Russian economy will run out of steam by 2025, Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs will run out by late 2025. So I am positing it occurs around 2027. the 110th anniversery of the 1917 revolution.
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true ...being Chinese from the Philippines, the Chinese are all about making a buck , very capitalistic business oriented.
Yah the Chinese want to take back Taiwan not only for the land but to win their civil war which started in 1921 and has not ended yet since the KMT is still alive in Taiwan and protected by the USA. They want to get rid of the KMT and any opposition to the CCP once and for all.
As for making a buck, the CCP are very much enemies of the KMT in Taiwan and the Taiwan independence parties. much they have strong business relationships with each other, all of them are enemies but making a buck with each other.
Same can be said with the China and USA relationship. Political and military rivals but deep and strong business relationships. USA and EU are China's best business partners and customers but also China's main political and military rivals.
As for the Russian Chinese relationship. They never liked each other, heck then almost went to war in 1969 with the Sino Soviet border clashes and the USSR threatened war with China in 1979 if China besieged Hanoi . and still have some border issues. the Russians did not like the way the Chinese were pirating their military designs. and entry into their economy.
However due to the Ukraine war and desperation of the Putin gov. China is making a buck out of the Russians , also China is making a buck out of the Ukrainians. by selling both sides drones, electronic equipment , parts, and not surprised if the Ukrainians are buying artillery ammo in the black market and Chinese artillery ammo is being sold there. Russia bought lots of artillery ammo from North Korea, and North Korea has long been a middle man for military arms sales for China. During the Iran Iraq war North Korea was a middle man to sell Chinese weapons to Iran which at the time had arms embargoes on it. Meanwhile the Chinese were selling weapons directly also to the Iraqis. Again the Chinese making a buck.
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