Comments by "Jim Mcneal" (@jimmcneal5292) on "William Spaniel"
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1)I think that it's extremely unlikely that Putin's regime will crumble. Ordinary russians are quite exhausted by the war, but for now there was no open mobilization for more than 2 years. Instead Russia offered money to people signing the contract, or forced conscripts to sign it.
2)People overestimate Surovikin's line. The biggest problem for Ukrainians was lack of firepower(Russia had air superiority, parity in artillery) and parity in manpower in the field. Plus Russia use mines a lot, including distance mining. Plus one of few good russian generals, Alexey Popov was in command of defense.
3)I don't think there's much point in Retaking Donbass or even Mariupol. First of all, it will be difficult. The terrain is quite defensible, with a lot of towns. Plus Russia has decent logistics there, unlike in Crimea, that can be cut off. Second of all, part of it is completely destroyed, and the rest has absolutely failed infrastructure(in Donetsk there's basically no water for 3 years or so). Plus population in LDPR is much less pro-Ukrainian, than in occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
What I think Ukraine should do is to bait Putin into thinking that everything is good, no new mobilization is needed, so he orders Russian army to continue advances. While at that time Ukraine will accumulate forces and maybe somewhere during summer will be able to counterattack. This of course is only unless Russia is already extremely exhausted and on a brink of collapse(from what I know it is not true and till now they were able to keep the parity in manpower in the field).
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