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Geoff Lepper
Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics
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Comments by "Geoff Lepper" (@geofflepper3207) on "Something Big Is Going On Inside Russia’s Economy" video.
There are a lot of other things that are going badly for Russia and were not mentioned. Russia has an incredibly low unemployment rate and every Russian who joins the military or goes to work at an arms factory or flees the country makes that labour shortage worse. Russia is quickly using up its liquid assets in its national wealth fund and is going to be facing a serious problem when there's nothing left. Russia is quickly using up its stores of army equipment in decent condition that it took Russia 80 years to accumulate. It may all be gone by next summer and then Russia is going to have a much more difficult time providing adequate amounts of military equipment to Russian forces. Ukraine is gradually damaging Russian oil refineries. Ukraine is gradually destroying Russian fuel depots and ammunition depots and anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine is getting better and better at producing its own drones and missiles to use in the war. Russian forces are suffering huge losses of men and equipment to take relatively small amounts of territory and control less Ukrainian territory than they did in May 2022. Ukraine now controls some Russian territory and that has led to a number of problems for Russia and Putin. - the need to use troops to protect the whole border with Ukraine. - an embarrassment for Putin being the first Russian leader since 1941 to suffer an invasion. - 200,000 Russians fleeing the region and telling people that Putin is doing a poor job protecting Russia. - the erasure of another Putin red line indicating that Putin's red lines are meaningless. - a lot of Russians and even some Russian state media personalities questioning how the war is going. Russia's arms export industry has collapsed. Russia's gas industry is in serious trouble with far less revenue and might take over a decade to recover and Gazprom is suffering huge losses. Canada, the United States, Guyana and Brazil have been increasing their oil production and now Saudi Arabia has indicated that it is going to do the same so oil prices are likely to be heading downward and staying there for the foreseeable future unless Israel destroys Iranian oil facilities and Iran responds by attacking Saudi oil facilities and trying to shut down the strait of Hormuz. The United States and Qatar have plans to significantly increase gas exports and Canada is building a huge LNG export port. China's economy has been stagnant and China has been quickly building up its renewable energy and dams and coal plants and seems determined to transition to electric vehicles. China also recently signed an agreement with Qatar to import a lot of Qatar natural gas for many years to come and signed a major agreement with Saudi Arabia, Russian infrastructure is no doubt continuing to deteriorate due to lack of maintenance and it's likely that Russians will be freezing in the dark in their apartments again this winter. I think that if Putin knew and understood everything that is going wrong for Russia he would not be happy at all with the situation. 2025 will be bad for Russia and its forces and for Putin. 2026 will be very bad for Russia and its forces and for Putin. Putin's only hope is a Trump victory.
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@MaximumEfficiency North Korea, Iran, Syria and Belarus is not over half of the world in any way shape or form.
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I doubt it very much. I can't imagine any Russian politician or military leader or bureaucrat daring to tell Putin that he should demolish one of his own palaces. That surely must have come from Putin himself.
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Venezuela has immense natural resources. So does the Congo. Things aren't going very well for them.
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@Viktor-gk5ri I'm not sure that Russia has lots of enablers just across the border. It basically has one - China. China is huge but relying so much on one export market is turning Russia into somewhat of a client state of China with Russia having little negotiating power when dealing with China. Russia wants a new gas pipeline to China and the Chinese said they didn't want much more gas from Russia and they wanted it heavily subsidized by the Russian government. And at the same time China signed a deal with Qatar to import lots of Qatar LNG for many years to come. Russia also recently signed a major deal with Saudi Arabia although it's not clear what is entailed. China's economy is somewhat stagnant and China faces rapid demographic decline and huge problems such as in its bubble of a housing industry. China is rapidly building coal plants and renewable energy and dams and is trying to quickly transition to electric vehicles. It's also selling a lot of solar panels to the rest of the world to speed the transition from fossil fuels. China itself controls a lot of valuable minerals. If the CCP is stupid enough to attack Taiwan then the world's wealthy countries will almost certainly put major sanctions on China which will lead to a contraction of the Chinese economy and a decrease in demand from China. Russia might benefit from China buying Russian instead of western agricultural products but Chinese demand for Russian oil and minerals would likely decline.
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@nerdynautilus5373 "Let the propaganda flow through you" is likely the main instruction that every Russian troll receives before beginning to work as a propagandist for Putin. Don't think. Don't question. Don't demonstrate any morality, decency or humanity. Just repeat whatever your boss tells you to say.
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