Comments by "Geoff Lepper" (@geofflepper3207) on "Whatifalthist"
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My first thought is to remember a man who talked about people who say "We should have a new subway here and another one here and another one here".
The man said "Anybody can draw lines on a map and say we should have a subway there. But actually building subway lines is another matter entirely".
In a similar way
anybody can draw lines on a map and say "that's where the borders of countries will be a century from now"
but that doesn't make it happen.
Must say it's strange for this map to show so many countries or parts of countries joining other countries when in the 77 years since WW2 there seem to have been virtually no instances of this happening and I don't see why the next 77 years should be so different than the past 77 years.
There have been cases in which a country has seized land that was historically part of the country
(eg India seizing Goa or China seizing Hong Kong)
but to imagine so many places deciding to join countries with which they have no historical connection?
Don't see it happening now when it hasn't happened on the past 77 years.
And frankly the age of empire and the age of countries invading other countries to take them over seems to be in the past.
Other than Russia what country does that and other than seizing Crimea and I believe a bit of Georgia I'm not sure that Russia has seized significant new territory.
Sure China is being aggressive in different places and may seize marginal bits of land from India or other countries but to seize much of Eastern Russia?
I don't see it.
China does claim that part of Eastern Russia was part of China unfairly taken by Russia in the 1800s and one blogger predicted that while Russia was busy invading Ukraine China would try to seize that territory.
However that territory was not nearly as big as what is shown on the map and obviously China has not invaded Russia even though Russia moved a lot of troops from the East to the West and is mired in a quagmire in Ukraine.
If China was going to invade Russia this was the ideal time so if they aren't doing it now they likely never will.
There is also the fact China will lose half its population by 2100 so I'm not sure what it would need all that extra land for.
It might want the resources but I am thinking that as Russia becomes a pariah, isolated from the west
China feels that it can have immense power over Russia which will need connections with China so no need to invade Russia when one can just tell it what to do.
Another problem with this map is that I don't think it takes into account climate change.
Half of Florida is going to be under the sea by 2100 as will be many other places in the world.
As well, much of the middle east,
India, parts of Africa and possibly parts of the Sourhern United States and other places will likely be too hot or have too little supplies of fresh water or be hit too often by major storms to be inhabitable.
And in terms of Canada splitting apart and much of it joining the United States there are serious problems with that prediction as support for the separatist party in Quebec is extremely low now
and although some western provinces might be closer in values to the United States than the rest of the country it doesn't mean that they have American values.
They like their public health care,
hockey and CFL and history, etc
and they don't want their children conscripted to fight in foreign wars or want American levels of gun violence.
I think they also might wonder why the Unuted States is still stuck in the dark ages and hasn't gone metric yet.
There is also the fact that western Canadian provinces know that they can have significant political influence in Canada but that if they join the U S. they will have much less political influence.
Also, American culture is going to change drastically by 2050 anyway.
This video may assume that the United States will have the same political culture in 30 years as it has now but that will not be true.
Biden won by 65-31 percent against Trump in the under age 30 group.
In 30 years if Republicans don't change rhen Democrats will get 65% of the vote of those under age 60 and will win all age groups under age 80.
80% of the people who listen to Fox TV are 55 and older so they'll almost all be dead in 30 years.
In 30 years the Unitrd States will be more urban, much less conservative,
much less religious, much more liberal and progressive so if people in western Canadian provinces want to join a conservative, Christian fundamentalist country in 30 years the United States won't be a good choice for them.
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