Youtube hearted comments of John Walsh (@johnwalsh4857).
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of course Poland, Poland has been better off than Russia since the 2000s and Russia is declining gradually. After the war is over, not surprised if millions of Russians will be streaming thru Poland to get to the west. Here in Vancouver Canada we have had waves of immigration from different countries , back in the 90s I remember it was from Somalia, former Yugoslav nations, Honduras, El Salvador, Hong Kong , China, being the largest immigrants now its the Indian students, but in the future oh say in a few years, you will see large numbers of Russians immigrating here in Canada.
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The collapse will get worse as the war goes on will get worse when the war is over when the Russian gov tries to shift the Russian economy from war to civlian, I forsee economic depression , hyperinflation, soldier who are paid say the ruble equivalent to 8K USD now all in rubles will suddenly find they have lost their value by 75 percent. by the time they go home after they demobilize , and faced with very high unemployment, the hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans coming home to high unemployment depressed economy hyperinflation high prices of foodstuffs many will go into crime or get employed by the many PMCs private armies of Russian elites. who pay well and treat their soldiers much better than the Russian army. and with many soldiers getting out of the Russian army to these PMCs or form criminal gangs, then Putin tries to purge Russian elites and shift blame to them for the war failures and to try to ban PMCs, well....that will be a good recipe for a CIVIL WAR. I think this will occur within 10 years of the end of the Russian Ukraine war. and in the meantime, Ukraine will be rebuilding and rearming and reforming its economy , gov and esp. its mlitary for round 2 reform and rebuild along NATO lines. So imagine in ten years after the war is over, Russia on the verge or going into full blown civil war, with a now strengthened , strong and stable Ukrainian gov economy and military very vengeful and looking to take back its lost territory looking to take advantage of a Russian civil war. (not surprised in the meantime, the Ukrainians fund anti Putin and secessionist groups in Russia). ....the coming Russian civil war will be very bloody and confusing as the Syrian civil war with many factions and possibly even foreign intervention. Just like the 1917 to 1922 one=.
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i predict thaw into civil war. Russia lost WW1 turned into a civil war. in 1917, USSR lost the cold war , it almost went to civil war in 1991. in the Russo Ukraine war 2022 to present. Well I think the war will drag the Russian economy to depression hyperinflation whose effects will come to full bloom after the war is over. With hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans going back to their homes facing economic depression, hyperinflation, the massive loss of value of their savings. , rising and high food prices, high unemployment, even more repressive Russian gov. and the only jobs they can do in this environment that is in demand are hiring up to PMCs, the private armies of the oligarchs and elites and criminal groups. In order to secure his grip on power Putin blames the oligarchs and elites for the failings of the war and tries to purge them and outlaw PMCs, With their backs to the wall, the oligarchs and elites rebel with their PMCs, then there is civil war.
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I agree with him, as I said many a time in the past , PUtin is probably frozen in some freezer in his ural bunker kaput since Oct 2023, and the Russian elites are just waiting to see the results of the 2024 USA presidential elections, if Trump wins more war and get a superior position in the peace negotiations, if Kamala wins, then the elites will cut their losses and negotiate for peace in 2025. Either way, I think the war will end in late 2025 or in 2026 with either the Russians negotiating a peace deal with Russia in control of 20 percent of Ukraine and keeping Crimea, in a Trump win or a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in a Kamala Harris win. Also swan lake will probably play in 2025 or in 2026 then later all the blame will go to the now deceased Putin. I suspect in a Kamala Harris win, the Russians might go on a desperate on last major all out offensives in 2025 in order to inflict such a blow to the Ukrainians to get a leg up in the final negotiations, this will probably be disastrous and fail which will influence the final outcome of the war.
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Russia currently is in a similar situation to the Russian empire before the 1917 Russian civil war. 40 percent of its budget is now geared to military spending. and its shifting 6 percent and more of its economy to war. its in a bloody stalemate not winning in Ukraine. suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses., more repression of free speech from the state. Rising food prices. It will get worse in the next few years culminating in Russia becoming more repressive suffering from venezuela style hyperinflation, suffering from battlefield defeats and even more significant casualties. This will trigger widespread protests in Russian cities , and lead to more Russian gov repression, and the match that causes the fire will be simliar to the start of the Russian civil war in 1917, Russian security forces massacre Russian civilian protesters which leads to a general mutiny in the Russian army,
As the Russian gov collapses so does the collapse of the command and control of the Russian army in Ukraine, which is taken advantage of by the Ukrainian army who launches major offensives which collapses the Russian army in Ukraine and Ukraine regains a lot of its lost territory in the offensives. The end of the Ukraine war ends not with a negotiation but with the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing in mass surrenders and desertions with their officers abandoning their troops just like in the end of the 1st Chechen war. There is no Russian gov to negotiate with .
The upcoming Russian civil war which I think starts in 2027(110 years from the start of the last one) wil be very bloody. and also have a lot of factions. I think the west and China will meddle in the war and support their proxies. However just line in the 1917 to 1922 civil war which had the Reds(communists) vs. the whites(anti communists), this civil war it will be Freedom/Liberty and the letter L who are supported by the west and Ukraine vs. the Nationalists/Patriots and the letter Z supported by China.
With the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, the Russians left massive amounts of weapons and military equipment , many of which will be given to the Russian Freedom Legion which I think will be massively expanded into a real army(from 2 current battalions as of April 2024). with recruits from the surrendered Russian soldiers in Ukraine and volunteers from Russia itself along with volunteers from Ukraine and other countries. and aided by support from the west.
The other side is like the whites during the 1917 Russian civil war, factionalized with an assortment of Russian nationalist movements and regional militias but with the uniting goal of being opposed to liberal democratic Russia that is influenced by the west. China supports it with funds and weapons.
The Freedom of Russia army is more coordinated and united with support from the west plus a head start in former Russian army weapons and equipment and large appeal from the Russian people. The Patriots also have a significant influence from the Russian people and initially have a bit larger recruit base but is poorly coordinated but support heavilly by China, Iran, North Korea etc.
The Russian civil war is bloody and also affects its neighbours as millions of Russian refugees cross into their countries with teh largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Also well armed Russian bandits raid into their neighbours and also become pirates, the Russian navy has practically devolved into a Pirate navy hijacking shipping in the black caspain and Baltic seas .
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yah cause Russian front line military hospitals care centers suck at medical, Russian battlefield medical is horrible. most of the time, only officers get evaced to good medical care, everyone else, GOOD LUCK YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN....or if you are lucky enough to have a friend officer or have a pull with a gov official you might get also evaced out. Otherwise, the average Russian soldier at the front does not even have adequate first aid kits, they use clothes rags, tampons(LOL) for bandages and wound blockers. and yah vodka(the cheapo and fake one) for anaesthesia and disinfecton. That is why there a a lot more Russians dying of their injuries which can be treated than the Ukrainians and if Russian soldiers are wounded many cant even be put back in the field since they would be permanently injured or dead. and that is for regulars, conscripts , mobiks, the Z convict Russian troops its even worse, ive seen videos and heard stories where Z convict troops who are wounded getting executed by their officers. its that insane in the Russians army.
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as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change.
I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine.
In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc.
The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse.
Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline.
Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse.
Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956.
Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks.
All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them.
Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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my take on how Russia loses this war, Kamala Harris wins Nov 2024, even better if Congress and senate are controlled by the dems. and the USA massively ups aid to Ukraine in 2025. a Kamala Harris win alone in Nov 2024 wil cause a massive Political tsunami in Russia, the Russian elites know the Russian economy cant support another 4 years of war, and the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrell in terms of refurbishing Soviet stocks of tanks and APCs, even better if the Ukrainians score a major victory ont he battlefield. in 2025 I can see the Russian elites and disgruntled military officers start organizing to chuck Putin out of a window and get a new regime going which I think happens in 2025 or in 2026.
WIth a new regime , negotiations occur and the Russians totally withdraw from Ukraine including crimea, in exchange all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets unfrozen in Western banks, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. , normalization of relations with the west. a formal peace treaty recognizing borders. That is how the war ends with a Kamala harris win in 2024.
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yes always have a plan B and C. and maybe even D just in case that is why Zelensky did not criticize trump at all. he smart hedging his bets. so now its Plan B. time to butter up trump and play games , 2025 will be game negotiations with Trump. In my opinoin the situation is Trump is pres. Trump is for himself , Trump has lots of assets and investments in Russia, also borrowed lots o money from Russian, lots of Russian investments in his companies. So Trump really has vested interest with Putin. HOWEVER....the big guys in the USA and European political and military industria infrastructure have a vested interest to see Russia not win this war, their goal, a much weakened economically and military Russia without Putin and a weak Russian gov. but a Russia stable and not in civil war. Trump may think he is da man, but nope he has to answer to these people. who are much richer than he is.
So Trump probably has a vested interest which coincides with the vested interest of the leaders of the American political sphere and military industrial complex. A weakened Russia stable with a weak gov is easilly exploitable by US companies for its cheap natural resources esp . by Trump who is just salivating to get more money from this. and also with Ukraine, the big boys in the US gov and miltiary want Ukraine to not only survive but serve as a foil vs. Russia. Like a wall to keep Russia out of Europe. and to that end , USA and the Europeans want a strong Ukrainian military and a stable ukrainian gov . and the hundreds of billions of USD in Ukrainian reconstruction money comiong will handsomely benefit trump .
So I think 2025 will be the year of negotiations, and the war will go on, and there is an even chance the USA continues military aid to Ukraine even under trump. Seeing that possibly in 2026 you might see the start of the collapse of the Russian economy with hyperinflation along with widespread discontent which leads to Putin getting removed from power.
So in the future maybe in the USA interest to keep a strong Ukraine hostile to the Russians to act as a wall for Europe, and a Russia will a weak Russian gov and military but with a stable more or less gov that is easilly exploitable for its cheapo natural resources.
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not surprised if Patrushev is running Russia right now having won the struggle with SHoigu, so after Putin went belly up and frozen, the FSB/Rosgvardia(under Patrushev) and the Russian army/GRU(under Shoigu) were ruling Russia jointly but there was a power struggle in the background. However starting early 2024 due to the poor Russian army performance in Ukraine, the FSB won the power struggle, hence Patrushev is in the driver's seat and SHoigu sidelined. Yep so you have a hardliner Patrushev running the show, with the FSB in command of the Russian army. and the war in Ukraine. If that is so, Ive heard Patrushev is even more of a war hawk than Putin and has maximalist goals on Ukraine. If the war goes on and bloodily stalemated with a depressed Russian economy, Patrushev may well lose his position, however from what I heard, Patrushev/FSB won the power struggle handidly and effectively removed Shoigu's supporters in the Russian army and gov. and Patrushev boys are now firmly in charge of the Russian army. so there is really no major faction to challenge Patrushev/FSB for now. Patrushev has also purged (fired and or arrested) possible dissenters in the Russian army. the Loud mouth Prigozhin is dead, Surovikin I hear has been arrested, Igor Girkin is languishing in prison. (rumored to be dead). Navalny dead. and so on, that means Patrushev probably cleaned out purged any possible rival to his regime. and now the Russian army officer corps are populated by yes men and FSB informants. along with lots of micromanagement down to the battalion level from the Kremlin. That is why you notice the Russian army tactics are not just plain jane unimaginative attritional meat attacks. However I do hear a lot of grumblings in the Russian officer corps and many are not happy with how the war is being run. So if the Patrushev flubs up, we could see possible revolt from the Russian army.
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true ...being Chinese from the Philippines, the Chinese are all about making a buck , very capitalistic business oriented.
Yah the Chinese want to take back Taiwan not only for the land but to win their civil war which started in 1921 and has not ended yet since the KMT is still alive in Taiwan and protected by the USA. They want to get rid of the KMT and any opposition to the CCP once and for all.
As for making a buck, the CCP are very much enemies of the KMT in Taiwan and the Taiwan independence parties. much they have strong business relationships with each other, all of them are enemies but making a buck with each other.
Same can be said with the China and USA relationship. Political and military rivals but deep and strong business relationships. USA and EU are China's best business partners and customers but also China's main political and military rivals.
As for the Russian Chinese relationship. They never liked each other, heck then almost went to war in 1969 with the Sino Soviet border clashes and the USSR threatened war with China in 1979 if China besieged Hanoi . and still have some border issues. the Russians did not like the way the Chinese were pirating their military designs. and entry into their economy.
However due to the Ukraine war and desperation of the Putin gov. China is making a buck out of the Russians , also China is making a buck out of the Ukrainians. by selling both sides drones, electronic equipment , parts, and not surprised if the Ukrainians are buying artillery ammo in the black market and Chinese artillery ammo is being sold there. Russia bought lots of artillery ammo from North Korea, and North Korea has long been a middle man for military arms sales for China. During the Iran Iraq war North Korea was a middle man to sell Chinese weapons to Iran which at the time had arms embargoes on it. Meanwhile the Chinese were selling weapons directly also to the Iraqis. Again the Chinese making a buck.
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also depends on what happens in the EU. without USA aid and USA dallying on its NATO membership and worrying statements from Trump and EU fears of Russian aggression on NATO members, I think the rest of NATO will break from the USA. and this time with urgency rearming and covering up the USA aid to Ukraine, USA stops sending aid to Ukraine, the rest of EU/NATO steps up dramatically. Yes USA may withdraw from NATO lifts all the sanctions on Russia, but the EU NATO and allies do not comply with the USA and breaks from it. and steps up aid to Ukraine. This time, there is a sense of urgency and then you dont have delayed aid anymore from NATO members since the USA is blocking them politically, thsi time the pro Ukraine NATO members do not listen to the USA then massively ups the aid to Ukraine. Russia threatens war but its army is so much stuck in Ukraine cant even do much , but do sabre rattling, France UK, send troops to Ukraine. and lift all the restrictions on their weapons use on Russian soil. France and UK probably threaten the Russians too of war if nukes are used. the French and UK may have much smaller stockpiles than the Russians but they will mostly work, the Russian nukes are very much in question , my estimate 75 percent of it will not work.
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Ive seen this Chinese bluster before, the Chinese like to bluster and beat its chest and threaten war but nothing happens, the CCP is not stupid like putin, Xinping is not Putin and he has to answer to his party not the other way around. and the CCP is not suicidal once China attacks the USA, or Taiwan, CHina is kaput, economic collapse destroyed navy , air force, blockades, total sanctions, destruction of Chinese shipping. = Chinese civil war.
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Now as for the media saying a lot that trump is enamoured with Putin, Trump i like a giddy school boy around putin etc. etc. etc. Nope dont think so, since in the interview of Epstein as to what he thought of Trump, he said that Trump was an expert ingratiator, he is expert at buttering people up, stroking people egos so he can get a good deal then he backstabs them later, like his former business partners, black mails them , tells their wives of their infidelities, then uses that to bed them, then later swindles his business partners by not paying the full amount he owes them. since he has blackmail on them. I think Trump will do the same with Putin. Trump will backstab Putin. Trump will drain both Putin and zelensky for what they are worth, however even Trump and USA politicos, strategic planners, etc. they would like Russia to be properly weakened. so they can properly controlled and not a threat to their neighbours, Putin out and with weak leaders in power, and not coillapse in civil war but stable politically. Zelensky, well he is already controlled very much by the Americans. and they want to build up Ukraine so it can be a counter to a possible future resurgent Russia if Russia gets a another strong leader after Putin is gone. and also make money while doing it. since Trump would like all that sweet hundreds of billions of USD in Ukraine rebuild aid along with being the leader who saved Ukraine.and he downgrades and laughs at Biden saying this guy was mediocre in aid while I won the war or something like that, heck a nice Trump tower in Kyiv would be nice along with avenues being named after him.
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