Youtube comments of John Walsh (@johnwalsh4857).
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the real disaster for Russia will be when the war ends and these guys come back to Russia, yep , if you thought the 90s was bad with a horrible russian crime rate fuelled by Russian vets of the Afghan and Chechen wars, they havent seen anything yet, yep , the social chaos these guys will cause in Russia will be worse than the 90s. Imagine Russia loses the war, these guys go back to Russia no jobs for them , discriminated for losing the war, psychotic from their war experiences, yep already military trained experienced in war, .....they will cause a massive social chaos in Russia post war.
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My top ten in no order and Ive been doing this since 2017. SOL, XRP , DOGE, AVAX, LUNA, , MATIC, LUNA, FTM, SHIBA INU, BNB
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Yep absolutely true Russia has 10X the military and economy compared to Ukraine, and Ukraine has taken back 50 percent of what it lost and both sides are stalemated on the 20 percent of Ukraine that Russia holds, Russia is having a hard time fighting Ukraine, current Russian casualties estimated in two years of fighting to be 350K Russian casualties 175K dead and 10K destroyed tanks and APCs. Yah the Russians can withstand that kind of pain and send more troops but so can the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are still fighting hard with high morale, meanwhile the Russians are reduced to sending poorly trained and motivated conscripts , even resorting to human trafficking to get recruits from abroad, reduced to recruiting convicts to fight, and begging North Korea for weapons, that is a sign of desperation for the Russians. and note that the Russian tactics pre war were for mobile maneuver warfare, breakthroughs in enemy lines exploited to mechanized units to cause a collapse of the enemy lines, well that has much devolved into WW1 style warfare. Seeing that a supposedly 2nd strongest military int he world is struggling to defeat a supposedly much weaker Ukrainian military and the battlefield stalemated since late 2022, this is not a good sign for the Russian army. In fact it is a Russian army in decline and defeat. I dont think the Russians can keep this up for long, as the Russian economy is getting blasted by the war.
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ah its failing cause for the following reasons #1: Russia did not have a plan for this kind of contigency, the Russians never dreamed the Ukrainians would do something like this. #2 Russian command and control is inflexible , they always stick to a plan, if the plan falls apart or there is no plan. they do not know what to do, that is why the response looked uncoordinated, basically left to the commanders of individual units. #3. Notice the local Russian civilians at Kursk did not actively resist the Ukrainians, in fact many of them fled clogging the roads and impeding Russian reinforcements. #4. The Ukrainains were able to cause a lot of losses among Russian reinforcements as they came in piece meal uncoordinated no air defense and road bound(the rail links were cut off by the Ukrainians). the Ukrainians were able to hit convoys of road bound Russian reinforcements with HMARS, ATACMSs, JDAMs and GMLRS. killed thousands Ive been told. due to Ukrainian drone recon and western supplied intel from sats#5. Many of those sent as reinforcements are a mix bag of fresh conscripts and reserves from Russian units fighting in Ukraine. the Fresh conscripts are next to useless, having ZERO combat experience. The Russian veteran units from Ukraine are in poor shape, partially staffed understrength, and not configured or trained in mobile warfare their AFVs are configured turtle style. #6 Russians have no air superiority in the Kursk area, due to the fact, the Russians transferred the SAMs in the Kursk area to crimea a week before and the SU-34s luanching their glide bombs are useless since the Ukrs are quite mobile and not stationary targets. You already have a few SU-34s getting shot down as well as Russian attack helis. Lots of Ukrainian drones being used, Russian drones are hampered by the very effective Ukrainian ECMs.
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True the Russians have a very high tolerance for casualties, as is historically, however I do think the real battle is in the Russian economy. the longer Russia is in this war the more its military and economy gets smashed. It cost 500 mil to 1 billion USD to just maintain the war in Ukraine for Russia, Russia is estimated to have about 45 billion USD left in its war fund. and not to mention the massive costs to build and refurbish new weapons, maintain infrastructure in Russia, train and recruit and equip more sucker recruits, and of course to defend the Russian ruble from hyperinflation and to subsidize and control the price of food. The moment Russia runs out of funds it will be a catastrophe for the Russian economy, this will lead to hyperinflation, rapidly inflating food prices and it will also get harder for Russia to fund their war in Ukraine leading to logistical problems, supply shortages which will heavilly affect the war fighting capabilities of the Russians in Ukraine. Also note that its est 95 percent of the standing Russian army is deployed in Ukraine and the Russians while they are making gains, are trying to hold on to and expand the 20 percent of Ukraine they occupy. Making gains but small gains fighing over towns and villages while suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses. The more casualties and equipment losses the Russians suffer the more the Russins have to recruit and mobilize, the more the Russsinas have to produce and refurbish more equipment , the more the Russians spend money , the more money Russians spends the more the Russian economy is getting hit hard. Also the final kicker is in what happens to the Russian economy after the war is over, with the Russian economy a large part dangerously on war mode without western foreign investments, and massive debts to the Chinese and Indians, it will be a disaster on a monumental scale on the Russian economy after the war, the Russians will endure the full force of a collapsed economy , an economic tsunami probably worse than the Great depression, the economic collapse of the USSR. , venezulea, zimbabwe etc. Heck this might not even happen after the war but near the end of the war something which causes the Russians to lose the war.
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Also not only that, Ukraine was already hammering Russian logistics in the southern front espeically hard for months, and also hitting Russian reinforcements as they move into the southern front. So the Russians dont really have a reserve in the southern front, they have to rail them from other fronts and by the time they are sent to fight the Ukrs fro the railheads, they are weakened, also low in supply and ammo. That is why the Ukrs are still advancing despite Russians trying to bring in reinforcements to the southern front in desperation and Russian commanders int he Russian front constantly complaining of low artillery ammo , and low manpower. The only things slowing the Ukrs are massive amoutns of minefields, very extensive Russian fortifications, tunnels , trenchlines and Russian air support. Also astounding the Ukrs are advancing with very little if any air support. and at the start of the offensive inthe south the Russians had hte artillery advantage but Ukrs concentrating on hitting Russian ammo dumps and artillery pieces had a very strong effect as the Russians literally have a bad artillery shortage in the southern front, as well as bad artillery ammo shortage. So the Ukrainians have a artillery advantage over the Russians in the southern front. Putin is so desperate he has to meet with Kim Jong Un leader of the NKs to buy artillery ammo and more artillery missles etc.
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Well I think the USA should send the following: Lots of Toyota Tacomas, Hiluxes, with bulletproof bodies and glass. with weapon mounts military excellent quality off road tires, wheeled APCs. Lots more Javelins, and any other top attack ATGMs, more stingers, more GPS, more night vision gear, drones esp. LOTS of switchblades secure comms. Why is that: Well, the Russians are probably planning a massive slow careful tank offensive backed up by heavy artillery, air support. The ground in southern Ukraine is perfect tank country, hard ground, open plains, weather also warming up 20 C in April. little rain. So the Russians will be conducting a classic battle of firepower, tank heavy infantry heavy cut the enemy into pockets then use massive firepower to destroy each pocket one by one at leisure. Typical Russian strategy after they get a bloody nose. The Russians will probably modify this one employing their own military trucks with elite soldiers to provide security for their convoys. and to counter enemy trucks. Now it will be suicide for the Ukrs to play by the RUssian mech book, the Russians have more AFVs more artillery and air support than the Ukrs, so how do you fight this strategy. Take a page from the Chadians in their 1980s Toyota war, and the South Africans in the Battle of Cuito Cunavale vs. Angola in 87. Both were faced with tank heavy forces in open terrain. so you deal with these by being more mobile and faster than your opponent. The Russians will probably employ mostly tracked AFVs, in open hard terrain, wheeled vehicles are actually much more faster and maneuverable. Also these vehicles can run rings around Russian tracked AFVs. THe Chadians used old desert maneuver battle tactics and just substituted Toyota trucks to their old horses and camels vs. the tank heavy libyans. THe Ukrainians can use this strategy in the open hard plains of Southern Ukraine. Ukrs do hit and run attacks ont he Russians again like in the north focusing on their logistics, Russian airpower is clumsy, large numbers of mounted Stingers and Star streaks will ward off Russian airpower, for artillery, Ukrs not only can coordinate their regular artillery with their drones but also use drone swarms as mobile smart artillery. Imagine,. lots of switchblade drones launched from these trucks with a 40 mile range loiter, then swarm attack Russian positions, very good vs. logistical vehicles which is your main target and also Russian stationary artillery. These drones not only double as kamikazes but also as recon drones , where you can bracket enemy units with Ukr artillery. civilian trucks are gas economical, much more easy to repair, durable off road very fast and mobile and can even go anti tank minefields. as proved by the Chadian toyota war of the 80s. and Ukr strategies should be hit and run. shoot and scoot, then repeat, the Ukrs have the advantage of range with the Javelin ATGMs which are very deadly vs. Russian AFVs. also fast moving trucks make difficult targets.
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Yah the tensions were bad in the mid 90s across the Taiwan straights, I was living in Guangzhou China in 1994 and it was crazy, starting 6 am , I coulid hear the PLA conducting artilleryi excercises near the city with loud artillery booms from 6 to 8 am every day. for like two weeks. ankd the USA was sailing a air craft carrier near the straights and Taiwan just to warn the Chinese off. This was due to the Taiwan independence party winning the elections adn Chinese fears and threats if Taiwan ever declares itself an independent republic that war will happen. I believe the US assured China that Taiwan will never declare independence and also assured China that if China ever invaded Taiwan that the USA will intervene, While China was blustering, the Chinese were scared to death of the US military. and the Chinese economy was just starting to take off but very dependent on exports to the USA and her allies. Fast forward to 2022, yah China is significantly stronger economically and militarilly also a bit more technologically advanced. the Chinese people are richer now than they have ever been at any point in their history. and this is all due to trade and investment with the 1st world esp. with the USA> but still the Chinese gov. blusters about kicking the ass of the USA militarilly and economically but just like the Russians, the CHinese are deathly afraid of the US military. If the Chinese were to invade Taiwan, this move by the CHinese gov. will be the worst mistake they have ever made in the 21st century. Not only is the CCP inviting military defeat but also economic collapse and social unrest to civil war levels. and if China invades Taiwan, its not only Taiwan who China will be fighting, it would be the USA, Australia, UK, and possibly even Japan and South Korea(if the NOrth Koreans get involved). economically the Chinese are dwarfed by the combined economic power of its enemies. China and NOrth Korea has a total GDP of 14.7 trillion USD, USA Taiwan , Australia, UK , Japan and South Korea have a total GDP 32.3 trillion USD. If there was ever a war , it wouuld primarilly be a naval air war, with the land battles possibly if the Chinese were able to land on Taiwan itself. Not surprised in the opening phases the Chinese would overrun the Islands of Quemoy and Matsu but invading the island itself will really be difficult. US 7th fleet has two aircraft carrier battle groups centered around the USS Ronald Reagan, and USS America but this can be enforced rapidly by the 3rd fleet. , with 4 extra carrier groups the Chinese currently have 2 aircraft carriers Russian cold war designs, and one being currently fitted the Fujian class, which rivals US super carriers. Not to mention the naval commitments of the UK, Australia and possibly Japan and South korea. . I think the Chinese will probably sink and destroy an number of Allied ships and planes but the Chinese navy will be mauled mostly sunk. the Chinese air force mauled. The USA and her allies will impoose not only total sanctions in China but also threaten to do so for anyone else who trades with China, and the Allied navies will blockade Chinese ports interception of Chinese shipping. In short = economic and military catastrophe for China. and can lead to a break up of China , the fall of hte CCP. and civil war.
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as far as I know, the Ukrainians had full intel on Russian dispositions in Kursk, most of the SAMs in Kursk were moved to Crimea, the Kursk area was poorly defended by the Russians, no defense lines , no mobile reserves, very few armoured vehicles and heavy weapons, the Ukrainians fielded a few brigades of their best mech units, veteran battle hardened well motivated Ukrainian troops backed up by NATO tanks and having localized air superiority backed up by good artillery and air support facing a few battalions of poorly motivated Russian conscripts with zero combat experience with few heavy weapons using mainly trucks and jeeps and no artillery and air support. backed up by some FSB, Rosgvardia and overhyped Chechen troops. . Well in the first 24 hours, two battalions of Russian troops(31st/102nd Motor rifle brigade and 17th/488th Motor rifle brigade) all but collapsed, many surrendering or running away. One Russian battalion was completely wiped out at Zeleny Shlyach Kursk when it tried to counterattack.
The Ukrainians captured intact a large number of motor vehicles(trucks and jeeps) which is greatly aiding Ukrainian mobility. Also the Ukrainians captured intact logistical depots,
Quite amusing are the Russian claims their glide bombs are inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainains but so far the sky is clear of Russian planes, and Russian glide bombs only effective vs. stationary targets, the Ukrainians are quite mobile and impossible to hit. So far the capture of the town of Sudzha severed the rail supply links to the Russian army grouping North of Kharkov and getting worse the town of Koroneva is contested also severing more of the rail line to north of Kharkov.
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Putin's days are not only numbered but so is Russia's , Putin's actions will have great effects on the Russian federation, I forsee after the war is over , post Putin Russia has lost the war, Political economic and social chaos in Russia. Something similiar to 1917 all over again. which will last for a few years. I dont think it will be a civil war, but it will be the breakdown of law and order, in Russia, collapse of the Russian economy, many PMCs and militias popping up all over the place and being the law and order of the area, power plants break down, many areas of Russia without power and internet, criminals , anyone with the gun and can organize become the new rule of law. Millions of Russian refugees will flee to their neighbours many will die when winter sets in and they get stuck at the borders in the dead of winter out int he open. with inadequate winter clothing and heating. Millions of Russians will die from this time of chaos which will last a few years, not only due to murder but also to the breakdwon of transport infrastructure, and the Russian ruble becoming worthless, Russian economy effecitvely becomes a barter economy where USD EUro UK pounds, Chinse Yuan and crypto are accepted and Russian ruble is toilet paper which makes food expensive and valuable , also millions of pensioners will lose their pensions and have to cope with hunger and bad winters. Im not surprised if UN Central Asians, Chinese and NATO troops are forced to deploy to Russia to maintain peace and order . and to stop the massive flow of refugees to their countries.
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Russian battlefield medical is very very poor. depending on the forces. but the vast majority of Russian forces get very poor medical, they have a bad shortage in first aid kits, Medevac is for officers. otherwise you get wounded you mend yourself or lucky you are near the Russian border you go to Russia and go to a hospital. Russians leave their dead and dont collect them, goes to show you what they think of their losses. Ukrainians, well equipped with first aid, excellent battlefield medical, near NATO standards, troops get Medevaced to NATO countries for treatment. This is very important in getting your injured back to fighting order. Ukrs are fighting for their country and motivated to go back to the battlefield after an injury, the Russians, if they are lucky enough to get evaced back to Russia, most of the time they wont go back to Ukraine. Russians fight for money and are forced to fight.
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Yes this is typical of the North Koreans, very disciplined, well trained, very centralized command, they really follow the commanders word to the letter, however when they fight in real combat, no flexibility, even worse flexibility than Russian combat doctrine however higher morale and bit more discipline than Russian troops, when they go into real combat, they follow choreographed rotes as they had practiced to the letter, that is why you see them bunched up and nice juicy targets for drones and artillery. yah and they shoot at any drone, let them waste ammo. very amusing. also these North koreans are excellent cannon fodder.
As a note the South Korean army is similiar however the South Korean army uses a much better US combat doctrine which while the South Korean army is much more disciplined than the US army, and more centralized command, and better trained too esp. in hand to hand combat, there is less flexibility in command compared to the US army. however the South Korean army has more flexibility in command than the NKs. with better gear too.
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and also not only does ukraine heavilly outnumber the Russians but also add in the force mulitipliers that Ukraine has highly motivated high morale, troops, know their home terrritory, better tactics, armed with the latest ATGMs from NATO, bit better managed logistics, good coordination better military leaders, superior intel and you compare that to the Russians who have: low morale low motivation, poorly trained, poor coordination , no unified military coommand, poor morale , mismanaged bad logistics, poor military leaders, more fragile political situation the only things superior for the Russians are artillery, navy and air power.
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I remember China and British ruled Hong Kong back in the 70s to 90s was like night and day. Hong Kong orderly, lots of things to buy, nice TV channels, lots of movies to watch, clean more or less. excellent and efficient public transportation nice night life. well made roads then you cross the border, you start seeing pot holes shabilly dressed police in sandals. dirty, people shitting in the streets, few cars, mostly bicycles, polluted, nothing to buy, food dirty , tap water yellow, tv sucks, no movies to watch nightlife sucks.
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well it took Russia 5.5 months to take Soledar, since they have been trying to take it since the start of August 2022, and they have not taken the whole town , the Ukrs sitll hold the outskirts of Soledar. The Russians probably lost at least 10K to 20K casualties in Soledar alone, the Ukrs 2500 to 5000 casualties. and as Prigozhin said, every house is a fort, so the Ukrs have mulitple lines of trenches and fortifications in the Donbass. in Bakhmut, While Bakhmut and Soledar are important in terms of location where taking Bakhmut can domino to the possible collapse of hte Ukrs position in the Donbass. the Ukrs will make sure the Russian suffer a Lot of casualties doing so. casualties not seen since WW2, and if the Russians think they can endure something like this like they did in WW2 nope, the Soviets back then were the ones who were invaded fighting for their survival , here the Russians are not in that position and are the invaders, it is the ukrainians who are fighting for their survival. and to top it all of USA NATO and their allies are supporting Ukraine, no one is really supporting Russia. The Soviets had high morale high motivation to fight in WW2 vs. the Nazis, here the ukrs have the high morale and high motivation to fight, the Russians, low morale , low motivation to fight compounded by poor logsitics, poor corrupt leadership. Yep the Ukraine war will be a disaster for Russia.
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it is already an army unto itself, ever since Shoigu was demoted and his buddies purged, and Patrushev head of the FSB became aide to Putin plus the FSB now controlling the Russian army well, the Rosgvardia has become the FSB private army, analogous to the KGB border guards of the USSR that ensure the security of the regime. Also besides ensuring the regime security, Rosgvardia is the source of barrier troops , the Russian troops who shoot Russian soldiers who retreat without orders. they are there to ensure the Russian offensives are stable and dont fall apart.
As a whole the Rosgvardia while better armed and more loyal than the Russian army, its still smaller as a whole than the Russian army and they are low experience , they dont actually directly fight the Ukrainians in the instances they did they got their asses kicked hard, just like Kursk offensive 2024 , where the Chechen akhmat under the control of General Aludinov was in charge of the defense of Kursk with units of Russian conscripts, well they were the first to run away from the Ukrainian offensive. Leading to a collapse of the Russian defenses there, when the Rosgvardia barrier troops run away , the whole Russian front also melts.
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Also not only that, Ukraine was already hammering Russian logistics in the southern front espeically hard for months, and also hitting Russian reinforcements as they move into the southern front. So the Russians dont really have a reserve in the southern front, they have to rail them from other fronts and by the time they are sent to fight the Ukrs fro the railheads, they are weakened, also low in supply and ammo. That is why the Ukrs are still advancing despite Russians trying to bring in reinforcements to the southern front in desperation and Russian commanders int he Russian front constantly complaining of low artillery ammo , and low manpower. The only things slowing the Ukrs are massive amoutns of minefields, very extensive Russian fortifications, tunnels , trenchlines and Russian air support. Also astounding the Ukrs are advancing with very little if any air support. and at the start of the offensive inthe south the Russians had hte artillery advantage but Ukrs concentrating on hitting Russian ammo dumps and artillery pieces had a very strong effect as the Russians literally have a bad artillery shortage in the southern front, as well as bad artillery ammo shortage. So the Ukrainians have a artillery advantage over the Russians in the southern front. Putin is so desperate he has to meet with Kim Jong Un leader of the NKs to buy artillery ammo and more artillery missles etc.
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So far from what I know the Russian recruited thousands of foreign volunteers from Syria, Nepal, China, Central Asian nations, Palestine, Serbia, Armenia, Mongolia, Hungarians, USA, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Cuba, Central African republic. Ive heard figures of 10K to 50K volunteers for hte Russian army from these nations, well many of them are kaput. I remember reading an account of a Chinese mil blogger who volunteered to fight for the Russian army got deployed with Wagner at Bakhmut in 2023 , he only lasted 2 days before getting killed. its that deadly for the Russians in the war.
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as for Soledar , it took the Russians 5.5 months and probably 10K casualties just capturing a town, and they havent even fully captured the town , the Ukrs still hold the outskirts of Soledar and probably fallen back to their other lines of defence, after inflicting heavy losses ont he Russians. If this is how Russia fights , I can predict that Russia will lose this war, the longer this war goes, the more Russia will be worse off after this one. I can see this war ending with a civil war in Russia. as Russian leaders start creating their own PMC or private armies. That wont turn out well in a power struggle after Putin is gone. The Russian civil war afte rthis war is over will be similiar to teh Russian civil war 1917 to 1923. Russian nationalists vs. each other, vs. secessionists vs. other groups(bandits, etc. ). After this war , Russians will all blame Putin for the war, and massively regret the day he came to power.
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Russian human wave tactics is a named misnomer, its not actually human wave as to its human wave like. Russian send in multiple squads in waves, not all in one attack but multiple attacks to draw in Ukrainian fire so the Russians can find out where the Ukrainian positions are. These are the expendable troops, the Convict Z units, the units from the non Russian ethnic republics, not too far behind them are squads of regular Russian troops who are used to corset the expendable frontal troops so they dont retreat(they shoot them) and with these troops are Russian artillery spotters who are used to call in Russian artillery strikes, the Russian army took a page from the successful wagner tactics in Bakhmut, earlier on, the Russians would really use waves of tanks and APCs with no supporting infantry preceded by unspotted massive rolling artillery barrages, Russian combat aircraft would be used to fire their weapons at extreme range at Ukranian positions, the problem was the Russian tanks and APCs would run into lots of Ukrainian mines and would get disabled then when prone get hit by Ukrainian artillery and ATGMs which are a bit more accurate than the Russian ones. So now with the mud season, the Russians are using the WAgner human wave strategies to get thru the mud and minefields, what the Russians will do is send in APCs thru no man's land park it at a distance, unload the expendables, then drive back fast to the Russian lines. these expendable would be told to attack Ukrainian positions, of course these guys would be hit by drones , artillery machine guns etc. run into mines. yes while that strategy was successful in Bakhmut since the Russian infantry can hide in hills forested areas or destroyed buildings, its a bit less successful in Avdiivka, where no man's land is a flat open plain. heavilly sown with mines. with teh Ukrainians in the high elevations with perfect fields of fire. That is why the Russians are not making much progress in Avdiivka are getting more losses than Bakhmut.
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from what I read, the Russian national wealth fund will run out in 2025 and vis a vis the rate of tank and APC losses in Ukraine vs. the Russian rate of tank and APC refurbishment and manufacture, well, Russia will have a tank and APC shortage by 2026. Yep Russia is weaker now than it is pre war, 95 percent of its current standing army is deployed in Ukraine, its so bad they are recruiting convicts to be soldiers, you only do that out of desperation. The Russians are also using human trafficking around the world to get suckers to fight in Ukraine and they wont even get paid. also the Russians are fielding ww2 artillery pieces , T-55s and BMP-1 all made in the 50s. They havent fielded T-55s in large numbers since the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. and the supposed 2nd strongest army in the world...supposedly.... are launching multiple big attacks in Ukraine, however not really taking much land , in fact the front has not changed much since Dec 2022. The Russians are proud to announce taking towns and villages while losing tens of thousands of men and thousands of tanks and APCs. and the ukrainian strategy is trade space for time , cause as much Russian casualties as possible and destroy as much Russian tanks and APCs as possible. Force the Russians to commit more troops and equipment to Ukraine which impacts their economy strongly and makes Putin's poltiical position weaker.
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of course Poland, Poland has been better off than Russia since the 2000s and Russia is declining gradually. After the war is over, not surprised if millions of Russians will be streaming thru Poland to get to the west. Here in Vancouver Canada we have had waves of immigration from different countries , back in the 90s I remember it was from Somalia, former Yugoslav nations, Honduras, El Salvador, Hong Kong , China, being the largest immigrants now its the Indian students, but in the future oh say in a few years, you will see large numbers of Russians immigrating here in Canada.
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Yes Ive figured this one out since the 90s. Russia may be a massive big power with thousands of tanks millions of men ready to sweep and attack Europe(or through the Fulda Gap west Germany in the cold war) but again we have always overestimated the Russians(and SOviets). Yes they may have a massive well equipped army which looks scary but in reality the Russian army has a lot of doctrinal problems, the command structure is overly centralized which results in poor flexibility of command during combat situations. the army is massively corrupt, the Russian patronage system favors who you know rather than ability so you get officers who are incompetent, discipline is poor, the Russian army is a peacock that likes to strut around likes its the best army in teh world, to hide its bad weaknesses. and it shows in Ukraine. The Russian army is good at fighting short fast wars like vs. Georgia, Syrian and Chechen insurgents(not so good with a determined able enemy like the Chechens as it took two decades and two wars to subjugate them with a population of around 10 million). Now Russia thought it could do a fast war with ukraine. Probably the most populous country that Russia has invaded post cold war. Even though the Russians have 10X the economy, 3-4 X the population, 10X the number of tanks planes, APCs vs. Ukraine and attacked with relative surprise, all these weaknesses in doctrine, leadership , command and control , training, discipline and esp. motivation and morale came to fore, that allowed Ukraineto quickly recover from the shock of invasion take back 50 percent of what it lost in 9 months and stalemate the bigger Russian army and inflict so far 300K to 400K casualties on the Russians in nearly 2 years of war. In nearly two years of war, the Russian army lost 50 percent more men than all the wars fought after WW2 combined. Heck Im not surprised by the time this war ends. it would be twice or three times that.
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Russian failures are all across the board here. Putin only wants good news, you give him bad news realistic assessments he will fire you. so his own people gave him the wrong assesments ti keep their jobs. bad corruption for several decades hollowed out the Russian army. Poor centralized doctrine not much different from the Soviets times, poor morale, unmotivated. corrupt poor Russian army leadership across the board. poor pay of Russian soldiers poor equipment , poor logistics. Yep the Russian army really blundered into this one, very simliar to the winter war of 1940. and the Russian army currently is a huge elephnat with arthritis and can only do limited offensives and cannot win the war. so is scaling down its objectives to like only the Donbass, LOL. in fact, I htink the Ukrainians are in a bit better positions the Russians have run out of reserves, they cant call up general mobilization since PUtin might get kicked out and you are only throwing in even more poor quality soldiers into the meatgrinder. The Ukr army stil has tens of thousands of reserves being trained and the Ukr army will soon go into counter offensive, the Russian army is a good target to be hit by a major knockout blow offensive and can collapse a major portion of their army similiar to what happened to the German army in Bagration 44. Im thinking this will happen in the next month or two. However I do think Putin with his army collapsing will probably use massive amounts of chemical weapons to stop the offensive then on to peace talks. and in the peace talks for the Russians the war is lost but Putin still waves around his nukes and chems to try to get what he wants. but his army is gone. Probably suffered a 25 percent loss. I think the peace will end up with the Russians keeping part of the Donbass. a withdrawing from the rest of Ukraine. many of teh sanctions will end. but some will remain. Also Ukraine will not recognize Donbass and Crimea both of which will be annexed by Russia. Tensions still bad between Russia and Ukraine, and NATO gives assurances, that they will intervene if Ukraine gets attacked again. putin still keeps power and tightens up his control over Russia, millions of Russians fleet from the country and refugee to Europe and North America, Austrralia. Many Russian soldiers dont go back to Russia and refugee in Europe.
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well true there was a long stalemate after the Russians retreated from Kiev, the stalemate lasted from April 1 to Sept 1, 2022. In that stalemate, it was a bloody stalemate as the Russians focused on Donbass. Lots died on both sides, but I suspect I bit more were casualties on the Russian side, so much that after the Ukrs captured a significant portion of Eastern Ukraine, the Russian mobilized. That is a sign from the Russians that they have lost a significant part of hte combat power of their forces in Ukraine and need the manpower. In that 5 month stalemate, the Russians were drawing manpower from all departments of the Russian armed force, Sailors , misslemen , supply troops, conscripts, and non front line support troops etc. were turned into regular infantry sent to Ukraine as front line infantry to Donbass, where they were expended in WW1 style frontal attacks. Even category C units from as far as Sakhalin were sent to Ukraine, Arctic troops were sent as regular infantry during summer in the Donbass. Still it was not enough, became casualties. Now the Russians are mobilizing their reserves which is turning out to be a disaster. The troops they have sent into Ukraine the forced mobilized draftess are even worse quality and motivation and less well supplied compared to just a few months ago. Sent into Ukraine as a stop gap. to stop the Ukrainian offensive in the east. So far these new troops managed to slow down the Ukrainians just by their numbers, however from reports a lot of the new draftees have become casualties due to their poor quality even worse quality than LPR and DRN militias.
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for the USSR the war in Afghanistan was just one facet of why the USSR collapsed , its all about the economy , USSR was simply spending above its means , a LOT above its means in order to achieve military parity with the west, yes the cost of the war in Afghanistan was a major drain but even worse drain is to maintain its massive armed forces to confront NATO in Europe, to confront China in the east, to support its proxies like Warsaw pact members, Cuba, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Syria, North korea, Angola, Nicaragua as well as various proxy guerilla and terrorist groups. along with low oil prices as oil prices crashed to as low as 29 USD per barrell in 1986,. as the USSR was dependent on resource exports (oil, gold, gas etc. ) to ironically its customers in Western Europe. and its economy was too centralized and inefficient. The war in Ukraine is much worse than Afghanistan in terms of the loss of resources and manpower. a bit worse economic drain than Afghanistan ever was. and the worst war in terms of manpower, resource and economic drain since WW2. The longer this war goes, the more it will bring down the Russian economy and if the Russian people start feeling economic hardships from this war, esp. when the Russian army gets defeats and not able to achieve much on the field well the more Putin's hold on power gets weaker, and of course the more he gets desperate to hang on to power and the more he will be tempted to use nukes in Ukraine, now the question is, if his own people will obey Putin when he gives the nuke order. my opinion no, I think Putin 's order will not only be disobeyed but the oligarchs, and Russian military and political leaders will use this as a pretext to remove him from power. While they owe Putin their power, they will not be willing to sacrifice their families and wealth to have WW3 with the west.
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the USA can handle both China and Russia, both are distinctly different in terms of handling militarilly. Russia will primarilly be a land war and China will be a naval war. Currently Russian military power is being ground down in Ukraine. in its current state in a conventional war with NATO , Russia will get its ass kicked hard. Now CHina is different since war with China will entail a CHinese invasion of Taiwan, this means the USN will be heavilly involved in defending Taiwan at sea and the Taiwanese army defending its land. I think the current US gov policy vs. Russia and China are currently correct, Russian military power is being ground down in Ukraine without US boots on the ground in Ukraine and direct war with Russia. meanwhile the Chinese economy is tanking and the Chinese of wary of war with the USA, the Chinese peacock all the time that they will go to war with teh USA but never follow thru since they are smart enough to realize they will lose a war with the USA and possibly collapse CCP control of China in the aftermath. and its not only military but also economic that China is vulnerable, imagine war wiht USA means China is isolated economically from the world means, blockade of its ports, confiscation of assets from the USA and its allies, total sanctions of China, this will cause a collapse of the CHinese economy and induce mass unrest .
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I think by next year Russia will still have teh manpower to throw at the Ukrainians, they have a ten to one advantage in manpower than the Ukrainains and as usual the Russians will throw Russian poor and Asiatic ethnics at the Ukrainians who are being paid less than a Mcdonalds worker in Vancouver Canada, if they are paid correctly if at all. However these troops will be as usual poor quality with 1 week training, poor morale with poor leadership, the more relliable troops will probably be North Korean volunteers, as the Chechens would have lost a lot of men even Kadyrov would balk at Putins orders of sending more men to Ukraine, . but the most critical are Russian weapon systems which I think will be increasingly vintage cold war , already 50 year old , T-62s are being fielded in Ukraine...what next 60 year old T-55s or WW2 vintage T-34s LOL. also chiefly and most importantly the Russian economy will really be in bad shape, and this will lead to political instability in Russia as well as a dillapidated and brittle Russian army in Ukraine, This will lead Putin to desperation.....to possibly push the nuke button on the Ukrainians to force a peace on his terms.
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these are all major reasons why Ukraine was able to fight off a military power 10X its manpower , vehciles and manpower. Like total incompetence by the Russian military, in fact in invasion day, the Ukrs were surprised the Russians invaded and were not prepared but somehow the Russians managed to flub that one up. A two week war as Putin thought it would last is now month 10 with no end in sight. with the worse Russian casualties and loss of vehicles since WW2. In fact it is getting so bad for the Russians they are mobilizing their popoulation for war in Ukraine which hasnt been donte since WW2 And to top it all off, the Russians controlled 40 percent of Ukraine in the first 3 months of the war, 10 months into the war Russian control about 25 percent. Yep a country 10X less powerful than Russia manpower, military and economic managed to not only fight off the Russians but also retake territory. the Russian military is that bad, overrated, and poorly managed , its much weaker than people think, however if any idiot invades Russia, the Russians will fight hard tooth and nail to defeat the enemy, Putin being a so called student of history if he really knew his Russian history should have known that before he invaded Ukraine since the Ukrs have the same mentality of fighting hard for their motherlands. And I agree with the Russian general, this war will be ruinous for Russia, economically and prestige wise and its mlitary is now becoming a shadow of it pre war self.
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the Russian air force throughout this war was already much superior to the Ukrainian air force in numbers and aircraft quality superiority, and still not even able to achieve air superiority, and the Ukrainian air force is still alive, since the Ukr air force has not been doing dog fights with Russian planes and Russian planes have not been staying too long in Ukrainian air space due to the very good and dense Ukrainian SAM missle net esp. near the Ukrs big cities. The Russians are forced to fire at long range stand off ranges. So this new SU-34 upgrade will not do anything significant. and mind you the Russian air force has been a no show in the war since the majority of Russian planes have been grounded due to overuse lack of spare parts(corruption sold off in the black market), lack of maintenance personel, and those that stilll fly are dangerous to fly that is why you get a lot of Russian plane crashes. and the Russians can only manufacture some new modern military aircraft due to the sanctions and their industry is not really geared up for this. THe Russian air force before the war was ranked the 2nd strongest air force in the world, but in reality it was geared only for short wars(Georgia), counterinsurgencies(Chechnya, Syria) but fared very poorly in a long conventional war just like the current Ukraine war which has been going on for 1 year and 4 months. Just like the Russian army and navy. same only geared for a short war. and the Russian air force has really been misused. with old Soviet style doctrine, poor leadership and tactics. The future of the Russian air military industry after this war will be bleak, bad advertising already from the war will minimize sales to the third world countries and when Russia goes into civil war, this industry will cease altogether. As Russia implodes after the war, it will be hard to source parts for Russian planes unless its in the black market. This will have a massive adverse effect on many third world air forces like India, African states etc. who have a lot of Russian planes in their stocks,
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MONEY motivates the Russians mostly, Same can be said for the tens of thousands of foreign volunteers int he Russian army 2K USD per month is big money for many poor third world country and the Russians are getting thousands of African, Indian, Latino and Asian volunteers. well they dont get paid mostly, life expectancy for these suckers is one month and after they die their famlies dont even get paid. I remember watching a blog of a Chinese volunteer for the Russian armyi which he was given officer status to lead a squad of 20 nepalese. he was sent to southern Russia in late 2023, by the 2nd day, only 10 Nepalese troops were left alive and they were encircled and hiding in a house. with a Ukrainian bradley shooting outside. by day 5 they broke out, and only 5 nepalese were left alive. Its that bad. I also heard, that a number of African countries rumoed to be Cape Verde , Burkino Faso, DRC, Angola, Central African republic are sending their convicts to fight in Ukraine. . , its that crazy.
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The collapse will get worse as the war goes on will get worse when the war is over when the Russian gov tries to shift the Russian economy from war to civlian, I forsee economic depression , hyperinflation, soldier who are paid say the ruble equivalent to 8K USD now all in rubles will suddenly find they have lost their value by 75 percent. by the time they go home after they demobilize , and faced with very high unemployment, the hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans coming home to high unemployment depressed economy hyperinflation high prices of foodstuffs many will go into crime or get employed by the many PMCs private armies of Russian elites. who pay well and treat their soldiers much better than the Russian army. and with many soldiers getting out of the Russian army to these PMCs or form criminal gangs, then Putin tries to purge Russian elites and shift blame to them for the war failures and to try to ban PMCs, well....that will be a good recipe for a CIVIL WAR. I think this will occur within 10 years of the end of the Russian Ukraine war. and in the meantime, Ukraine will be rebuilding and rearming and reforming its economy , gov and esp. its mlitary for round 2 reform and rebuild along NATO lines. So imagine in ten years after the war is over, Russia on the verge or going into full blown civil war, with a now strengthened , strong and stable Ukrainian gov economy and military very vengeful and looking to take back its lost territory looking to take advantage of a Russian civil war. (not surprised in the meantime, the Ukrainians fund anti Putin and secessionist groups in Russia). ....the coming Russian civil war will be very bloody and confusing as the Syrian civil war with many factions and possibly even foreign intervention. Just like the 1917 to 1922 one=.
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well ive lived in Vancouver BC Canada since 1992 and ive seen several PMs come and go and Ive always voted conservative. However Trudeau was an OK PM , yah he sucked at the end , but hey most Canadian PMs do at their expiry dates. so having said that here are my views on Canadian PMs that I have experienced:
EXCELLENT
Bryan Mulrooney: While I started work in Canada in 1992, at the tail end of Mulrooney's reign yah Canada and BC was in recession at the time, but the Canadian economy boomed under him, and before I settled in Canada I experienced the boom year having visited the Vancouver Expo back in 86 yah was just a tourist of Canada since 81 but I visited the country multiple times and I felt he did a good job with Canada despite all the haters.
Stephen Harper: Love this guy, yah lots of haters on him but Canadian economy boomed under him esp. Western Canada. boom times in Vancouver under him
GOOD
Justin Trudeau: OK his last few years sucked bad but you know what he was also good for Canada , Canadian economy was booming pre covid. and he did a good job on handling the covid crisis in Canada, well in BC it was good, Quebecers hate his guts since a lot of em died during covid but sorry remember to obey safe distancing etc. He is much criticized on his immigration policies but you know what we actually needed those policies during the boom years before covid and during covid since local Canadians would not take the jobs those immigrants took and during covid many did not work stayed home took welfare. Now since there is high unemployment they are being forced out with the stricter student working hour laws.
AVERAGE
Paul Martin: not much happened but at least he did not mess up
Kim Campbell: really did not do anything , she only lasted a few months as PM in the mid 90s. interim PM no mess ups.
BLEHHHH
.
Jean Chretien: This guy sucked balls hard, yah the Quebecers and the east loved this clown but yah we in the west have a low opinion on him , the east got the brunt of the boom while western Canada was in recession esp. BC, probably the worst Canada PM ever.
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i predict thaw into civil war. Russia lost WW1 turned into a civil war. in 1917, USSR lost the cold war , it almost went to civil war in 1991. in the Russo Ukraine war 2022 to present. Well I think the war will drag the Russian economy to depression hyperinflation whose effects will come to full bloom after the war is over. With hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans going back to their homes facing economic depression, hyperinflation, the massive loss of value of their savings. , rising and high food prices, high unemployment, even more repressive Russian gov. and the only jobs they can do in this environment that is in demand are hiring up to PMCs, the private armies of the oligarchs and elites and criminal groups. In order to secure his grip on power Putin blames the oligarchs and elites for the failings of the war and tries to purge them and outlaw PMCs, With their backs to the wall, the oligarchs and elites rebel with their PMCs, then there is civil war.
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Doable plan on paper which I think will fail, noting its not only the USA China will be fighitng but probably all of NATO, Australia, New Zealand, possibly Japan, South Korea, and India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore. and its not only military the death knell to China will be economic , total economic sanctions along with blockade of air and sea trading routes, impounding Chinese shipping seizing of Chinese good,, properties of Chinese oligarhcs and citizens, the works. Chinese economy would collapse in that kind of siege, in this war, I can see the only Chinese allies being Russia and North Korea and by 2025, Russia wil be a non player having been really weakened by the war in Ukraine, North Korea will act as a distraction in the Korean peninsula. distracting Japan and South Korea, and even South Africa, will have to follow sanctions against CHina or be totally isolated. and with a economic collapse comes military defeat. consequences for China will be really really bad. No one will invade China but China itself might collapse into civil war, back to the 1920s warlord era for China. So China would really really be stupid to do this plan.
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yep not only are the Russian personel on the Ukrainain front lines are now rotating but they are also not being paid properly. Yep, you have foreign volunteers who have been recruited with promises of high pay from poor third world nations like Cuba , Nepal , Sub saharan Africa, etc. These guys are also promised that they wont be sent to the front line but they are going to be posted behind the lines guarding logistics, however in reality when they get to Ukraine, they are put on the front line as expendable meat and if they refused and want to go back, they cant, they get punished by the Russians. and abused. and when they are killed they are listed as missing in action, and families not paid. many of them have been kaput and become fertllizer in Ukraine, already 8 Nepalese gurkhas have been killed in Ukraine, yep the Ukraine war is so bad and brutal it eats even the famed Gurkhas for breakfast.
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a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive
Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps
Russian Order of battle:
2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X.
Ukrainian Order of battle:
13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X.
aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk.
Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster.
also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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Russia is also suffering this kind of problem probably to a larger degree with private individuals forming their own PMCs, militias, paramilitary organizations to fight in Ukraine or due to local security. Ukraine I think this will not really be a problem post war, except for some instances that hte post war Ukr gov may have to suppress, arrest and confiscate their weapons. or some of these guys might even run for gov. in Ukraine. Ive seen this happen in places like the countries of former Yugoslavia, Liberia, DRC etc. where militias were raised due to teh war and these militias either ended up as criminal gangs or as political parties. or disbanded peacefully. However its predicated that the succeeding gov. after the civil war is stable . However if its not stable or there is no succession well, you end up like Somalia where they had like an ongoing civil war since 1991. Russia post war will be unstable. politically and economically. and like Barre in Somalia who was a strong leader with no strong leader succeeding him, well after Putin I dont see any strong leader to succeed him with his kind of caliber, so it happens in the backdrop of unrest due to defeat in Ukraine, Putin gone, successor factions having their own miliias, private armies heavilly armed, fighting each other , as Igor Girkin said, this has happened before in Russian histor during the civil war 100 years ago, where you had many militias, were formed to do local law and order as the Russian central gov collapsed , the militias became gangs that fought each other, same thing will happen to Russia after this war is over. Russia will go into civil war perhaps lasting a decade. Russia will be a Geopolitical heacache for its neighbours and the west. a massive Somalia , a great game between USA and CHina . Russia will be similiar to China in the 1920s, no central gov. with the country ruled by warlords.
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I think WW3 will be a relatively short affair when compared to WW1, 2, Korean war, I think it will be over in 1-2 years. My view is USA/NATO/ANZAC/Ukraine/Taiwan/South korea/Japan vs. China/Russia/North Korea. the rest will be neutral or cheering for one side or another from the bleachers but not militarilly intervenilng. Countires like Singapore, Philippines will probably not send in military forces but will have their territory hosting Allied military units. and basing rights. I think no nukes will be used. with land war being limited to Ukraine border areas between NATO and Russia, with naval actions in the Atlantic, med, caspian and black seas., in the Europe and in Asia, the South China sea, sea of Japan, the Taiwan straights , the pacific and Taiwan itself. the war in Europe will be mainly a ground war and the war in Asia will be mainly a naval air war. and I dont think it will be the bloodiest war in history , in fact WW3 will be the least bloodiest war by orders of magnitude when compared to WW1 and 2 but will still be the bloddiest war in the 21st century by far if you fold in the Ukraine war whcih has been going on since 2014. (just like the Second Sino Japanese war was going on in 1937 and was folded into WW2 starting 1941. I think NATO and its allies will win this one but will suffer heavy losses but nothing compared to the losses of the Sino-Russian alliance which will lose badly. The Allies I think dont press the Alliance too much on war reparations but the Russian and Chinese leadership undergo changes will the leaders being kicked out of pwoer and replaced with moderates. who blame their predecessors for their problems and try to resume business as usual relationships with the west. However the economies and political pwoer structures of China and Russia have been greatly affected badly. which greatly affects their social stability. the military, prestige and economic losses of China and Russia causes massive unrest. even when sanctions are dropped and financial aid is resumed. Russia loses about 25 percent of its territory to secession which the Moscow gov does not do anything about. with notable secessions being Chechnya which becomes an independent nation. Then things stabilize with what is left of Russia becoming a more or less democratic pro West nation as investments eventually after a decade flow back normally into Russia. China on the other hand , the CCP hold on power weakens and the PLA imposes martial law in hte face of massive unrest. a hundred thousand or so are killed in nationwide crackdowns on unrest. not seen since the cultural revolution. Due to the war , instability and the crackdows, investmests mostly dont go back to China despite Chinese are trying to advertise business as usual Western investments go to India and SOuth East Asia instead making Chinese economic recovery painfully slow. China isolates itself from the world. massive amounts of Chinese refugees flee from China as the bamboo curtain falls. (includes Hong Kong and Macau). The CCP and PLA try to do a internal capitalist system isolated to China and North Korea. with authoritairian CCP party control seperate from the world economic system. There is a new cold war between USA and China with two seperate world and political economic systems not seen since the cold war.
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The Ukraine war can become like the Iran-Iraq war and last for several years. The intial failure of the Russian blitzkrieg then becomes a attritional war lasting for years until one side's economy cant take it anymore and that side declares a ceasefire. then armistice. In the iran iraq war, Iraq invaded iran with the goal of conquering Iran and overthrowing the Islamic shia revolutionaries, the initial invasion failed and then the Iranians kicked them out of Iran then made it their goal to conquer Iraq and kick out Saddam. Massive western support for Iraq massive sanctions on Iran along with high oil prices from 1980 to 1985 and a collapse of hte oil prices in 1986 resulted in the collapse of hte Iranian economy which made the Iranians do desperate actions like attacking shipping in the persian gulf in order to raise the price of oil and more desperate offensives on the Iraqis to break the Iraqis on the battlefield but the West and esp. the USA , the saudis and to a lesser extent the Soviets supported the Iraqis vboth miliarilly and financially , war ended in 1988 with a Marginal Iraqi victory. with iran declaring an armistice. With the Ukraine war, I think the war had a initail blitzkrieg invasion phase from Feb 24 to April 7, 2022 ended in a Russian failure to capture Kiev and Kharkov and decapitate the Ukrainian gov. From April 7 to present the war is in its attritional phase with the Russian goals much downgraded to taking the Donbass and possibly taking the entire Ukrainian south and linking with Transnistria. I predict a bunch of events will end the ukraine war starting with collapse of oil prices, increasing sanctions on Russia with most of hte EU nations decoupling buying their energy sources from Russia, increasing military aid to Ukraine. Global recession, this makes the Russians desperate they will probalby mobilize in 2023 or 2024 and try to use the full might of the Russian army to win in ukraine by forcing the Kiev gov. to an armistice. leaving the Russian army in full control of its winnings in Ukraine. This fails bloodily and induce unrest, uprisings revolution as the Russian public is greatliy pissed off by food shortages due to rising prices of food massive inflations sanctions forcing the Russian gov. to do martial law crackdows which leads to riot and revolt. Russian revolution 2.0 happens overthrowing Putin. and his inner circle. New Russian gov. declares an armistice and withdrawal of all Russain forces in Ukraine, I predict this will happen in 2024 .
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The west wants to grind down Russia in Ukraine. the longer the war goes the weaker Russia gets. so 8 months into the war Russia is already doing partial mobilization , something not seen since WW2. Russia cannot keep on mobilizing or its risks damaging its economy and provokes unrest. Also the sanctions can get worse later, and sanctions are just slowly grinding down the Russian economy. Also Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in this war, 3K tanks and 6K APCs, number not seen since WW2. This is not just some insurgency like Chechnya or Afghanistan its a real full on conventional war fought with a bit more firepower than WW2. according to Prigozhin, the Ukraine war , the Russians are burning ammo 2X that of the battle of Stalingrad. and makes Chechnya look like kindergarden a walk in the park. The longer Russia is fighitng the war the worse it will be for Russia after the war. I think the Ukrs have to endure 2 years of war, I dont think Russia can keep up the war for 2 more years, Russian people are not the same Russian people of WW2. who were more hardier, and their morale was a lot higher and they were fighting for national survival , here the Russians view this war as a mistake.
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yep to judge the state of this war, Russian took about 40 percent of Ukraine from Feb to April 2022, since then the Ukrs retook 50 percent of what they lost so the Russians in Sept 28 2023 , 1.5 years later control only 20 percent of Ukraine, noting the Russians did a surprise attack on Ukraine, Russians outnumbers the Ukrs in terms of manpower, and has fire power superiority a much larger air force and 10X the manpower reserves and economy to that of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are retaking lost territory and inflicting bruising Russian casualties and equpment losses. and retaking them without much air support. So Ukrainians general ship I can say is much better than the Russian one. Chalk all this up to Much better Ukrainians generalship , superior Ukrainian leadership, training, coordination , flexibility, improvisation morale , motivation is simply defeating the Russians.
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Staromlynivka… Zavitne Bazhanya is now held by (drums!) – battered 60th MRB and 247th VDV Regiment. The HQ 5th CAA ‘reinforced’ their eastern flank with the 37th MRB, and the western flank with the 34th MRB, while the 136th MRB is further back. I doubt even one of units in question is at more than 40-45% of its nominal strength.
Around 16-17 August, the ZSU (35th and 37th Naval Infantry) attacked down the eastern side of the Mokry Yari River while, on 18-19 August, the ZSU run diversionary attacks on Dorozhyanka. In attempt of preventing the command of the 5th CAA from sending yet more troops in the same direction.
The attack in direction of Staromlynivka came forward quite well, and resulted in destruction of several Russian tanks – until, apparently: ‘unexpectedly’ – it was hit by a massive Russian artillery barrage, which should have caused ‘significant losses’. AFAIK, it is not yet sure if ‘somebody (on Ukrainian side) screwed up’ or the Russians – for once – got their business together. Nevertheless, the same afternoon, Ukrainians launched a new advance WEST of the Mokri Yaly River and also one on Novodonetske. Meanwhile, they’re back to their advance in southern direction, and attacking into north-eastern Staromlynivka, too.
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So what I see, right now, is Ukraine knows about Putin's plans and will fight this war smartly to outmaneuver the Russians on the battlefield with massive NATO logistical support and keep on defeating the Russians while trying to minimize its casuatlies not engaging the Russians in drawn out battles of attirtion where Russia's manpower will factor in greatly. Ukrs tacatics, outmaneuver the Russians on the battlefield, attack and exploit Russian weakpoints along the battle lines. hit Russian logistics hard. cut off Russian units from supply then make them break up and run. with the good caveat the Russians dont withdraw in order and leave lots of equipment and vehicles. This also produces more effect on Russian public support for Putin. Erodes it. as the Ukrs keep on inflictinig major losses ont he Russian army. and it causes Putin to keep on mobilizing thus further eroding domestic support for Putin. The Russians now are just trying to stop the Ukrs, also doing some attacks to try to distract the Ukrainians, and doing the Belarus gambit. I personally dont think the Russians will be attacking again from Belarus. but in the event the Ukrainians have been inflited major losses on the battlefield. then those Russian Belarus troops may attack Ukraine. focusing on Western Ukraine to cut off supply lines from NATO. The Belarus threat is there to keep Ukraine from committing more troops to the East and South. and keep a good part of its army north to guard from this threat. Both sides are preparing for winter and I think the Russians are trying to prepare to defend its winnings in Ukraien, an din the lowdown of from Dec 1 2022 to March 1, 2022. the Russians hope their draftees will be experienced and trained enough to withsrand more Ukr offensives and go on a major spring offensive. I think Putin really belives that one. Also Putin is in a race for time in Urkaine, a delicate balancing act, with 1. sanctions eroding his economy and its major effects felt possibly in 2023 to 2024 fruther eroding his domestic support. 2. Europeans resolve during the winter as well as facing a global recession in 2023. 3. USA mid term and presidential elections in late 2022 and in late 2024 respectively Putin hopes a republican win will completeliy cut or at least signficantly downgrade USA support for Ukraine to force the Ukrainians to a negotiated peace. with Putin holding on to a significant poriton of Ukraine so he can take it back to his own people and claim a victory to try to insure his political survival. in his mind of course. The longer this war goes this way, the more Putin'd domestic support and economy erodes.
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and besides living in China, I remember going as a tourist to the USSR and the Warsaw pact countries in 83, with a tour group, went thru East Berlin, Prague, Budapest, Leningrad, Moscow etc. I remember when I stayed as the Cosmos hotel Moscow , I had the waiter in the Cosmos hotel ask me hey where are you from, I said the Philippines, he said wow that is great hey do you want to buy caviar, I sadi yah, and the waiter led me to big hotel store room and sold me soviet caviar , came in small glass containers with red or blue metal lid, for 5 USD a pop. He told me sorry we only accept USD, Deutsemarks, French Franc, UK pounds but sorry, no Italian Lira or Japanese yen and esp. Russian ruble hahaha.
I also remember the Cosmos hotel moscow had a massive lobby , the biggest hotel lobby i have ever seen very impressed with it. one day I was relaxing ini the lobby when a civilian came in the hotel, suddenly all these Soviet guys in suits who were also sititng down inthe lobby all got up and went to the guy, hahah, first thing i thought lots of KGB here haha , not surprised our tour guide and minders were also KGB. heck I gave Philippine Pesos to them as souvenir hahah
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I agree with him, as I said many a time in the past , PUtin is probably frozen in some freezer in his ural bunker kaput since Oct 2023, and the Russian elites are just waiting to see the results of the 2024 USA presidential elections, if Trump wins more war and get a superior position in the peace negotiations, if Kamala wins, then the elites will cut their losses and negotiate for peace in 2025. Either way, I think the war will end in late 2025 or in 2026 with either the Russians negotiating a peace deal with Russia in control of 20 percent of Ukraine and keeping Crimea, in a Trump win or a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in a Kamala Harris win. Also swan lake will probably play in 2025 or in 2026 then later all the blame will go to the now deceased Putin. I suspect in a Kamala Harris win, the Russians might go on a desperate on last major all out offensives in 2025 in order to inflict such a blow to the Ukrainians to get a leg up in the final negotiations, this will probably be disastrous and fail which will influence the final outcome of the war.
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I personally think the Ukrainians can still win the battle of the Donbass, and yes I highly agree with you on the battle of Budapest similiarity. Hopefully the Ukrainians do a very successful operation Konrad and smack the Russians hard. the battle of the Donbass will enter a critical phase next month as the ground hardens and the weather gets clearer. I think the Russians will gain a lot of ground in the next few weeks in the area, On the side they are going to try to take Mikolayiv near Odessa. Also expect the Russians to make another push to Kharkov. and yah in the donbass I expect the Russians to pocket and cauldron the Ukrainians. However the Russians will incur a LOT of casualties, esp. in their elite units which are being used as shock troops. and the Ukrainians are going to be using their arty , drones and ATGMs a LOT. Hitting supply lines. HOwever I think in the aftermath, the Russians will be exhausted. ripe for the Ukr counteroffensive. Heck The Russians may actually capture all of Donbass, threaten Kharkov, and isolate even Odessa and do a land bridge to Transnistria by say mid to late summer. but the Russians will have incurred a LOT of losses. and the Ukrs will hit them hard in a counteroffensive. Possibly even invade Transnistria. This just extends the war as the Ukrainians will not give up and will fight to victory. probably even illicit more support from NATO. like western tanks and jets being supplied to Ukraine. Russia may take a lot of Ukr territory but cant hold it. and its economy longer the war goes cannot support it. and the Ukrainians get a lot of financial economic support from the USA, EU and their allies. and the Chinese are getting wary of supporting Russia. The Chinese are probably just giving the Russians enough to keep them upright, but the Chinese will backstab the Russians later when they lose the war and Putin is gone. My view of the war's conclusion is that the war will most likely extend into next year. will be after Putin dies , there is a power struggle, or even a power struggle to remove his successor. which in the background, teh war is really not going well, and the Russians actually lost significant ground, suffered a horrendous defeat, and its clear the Russians cannot win the war, their economy in collapse, a lot more dissent from the Russian public and morale of the Russians soldiers in the field even lower. So many AFVs have been destroyed they are probalby scraping the bottom of the barrell in equipment and vehicles. I think the war will end when Russian gov the new one calls it quits and abandons their troops in Ukraine. They will say the Russian gov is bankrupt and we dont have money to properly evacuate Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian troops will be forced to walk back hitchike or even surrender to the Ukrainians , yep a uncontrolled Russian army with no authority will be chaotic, mass looting not seen the end of WW2 in the eastern front Germany. Mass surrenders not seen since WW2. Ukrainians will be forced to do an offensive to control areas to curtail Russian looting rape rioting etc. I expect large scale war crimes trial on the scale of WW2 on captured Russian troops for atrocities. While Ukraine is devastaated, there will be a massive marshall plan to fix ukraine Ukraine will boom in the reconstruction. Lots of Russian men equipment and vehicles will be left in Ukraine not surprised if arms dealers go to ukraine to buy captured Russian equipment, for Russia it will be worse. The Russia will start to resemble like Venezuela but in disorder. unrest. Weak central authority, unrest rebellion east of the Urals. and Caucasus. high crime rates, collapsed economy. political chaos. very weak military and police forces . Arms dealers will go to Russia to buy their military equipment at bottom of the barrell fire sale rates, since the Russian gov. will need a LOT of money to recover. China will exploit this and support the secessionists east of the Urals. and nationalist pro Putin elements to weaken the now Pro Western Moscow gov. with a military so weak it will not be able to prevent the secession of various Russian republics starting with Chechnya. I think Post war, with a Russia undergoing political and economic upheavals and balkanizing, it will not be seen as a threat anymore but as a excellent economic resources exploitation opportunity by various foreign powers esp. the USA and most importantly China. who will support the createion of various indpependent former Puppet states in Siberia and the Far East and the Caucasus. Russia will be a total shit show. Like a huge version of Libya.
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well Bakhmut has served its purpose as a meatgrinder for the Russians , a good distraction for the Russians to attack on plus lose a LOT of men, Bathmat has been gong on for 8 months and 50K Russian casualties later. Sieverdonetsk last year 2022 also served the same purpose however that lasted 4 months and 15K Russian casualties. then Ukrs launched their offensive and recovered massive amounts of territories. At Bakhmut its estimated that the Russians are concentrating most of their tactical aviation as well as artillery , an all out Russian attack. involving thousands of Tube and rocket artillery, hundreds of T0s-1s thermobarics, Spray and Pray unguided Rocket attacks by day by SU-25s, and SU-35s using guided glide bombs at night. Sustained round the clock bombardment. Of couse tjhe Ukrs are being pushed back but are still fighting. But the Garasimov is said to want to conquer Bakhmut by May 9, 2023 celebrations as a gift to Putin. but I think the Ukrs have a surprise for the Russians to spoil the may 9 , 2023 celebrations. at Red Square, WHile Bakhmut may be on its last legs, its served its purpose , however back last year the loss of Sieverdonetsk was much ballyhooed by the Russians well now that Russian victory is much forgotten. the Russian concentration of artillery at Bakhmut was done at the expense of other fronts. which the Ukrainians will be well taking advantage of. and the Ukrs are hitting Russian logistics and ammo dumps behind enemy lines all the time. its funny that the artillery shipped tot he Russians by the Iranians reported to be 300K artillery shells was mostly expended at Bakhmut and is not enough to solve Russia's artillery shortage. It will be quite hilarious , if the Russians manage to capture Bakhmut but later have to withdraw and abandon it. in order to stop major Ukrs offensives in other fronts.That would be a very funny may 9 2023 gift to Putin, Im not surprised Putin may well cancel the May 9 2023 celebrations hahah
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Yah I remember those times in the 70s and 80s when the oil prices were high, the USSR was really building up its military and really threatening the USA and NATO. The Soviet army was much feared and there were war scares in the early to mid 80s with tense moments beetween NATO and the warsaw pact. However when oil prices collapsed in 1986, the Soviets were amping up their confrontation with the west to raise the oil prices, also the collapse in oil prices resulted in the end to the iran-Iraq war due to both sides fuelling their war with oil sales. The Iranians started doing attacks on Oil tankers in the Persian gulf stating they were doing it to cut off oil exports from Iraq but in truth the Iranians wanted high oil prices to fund its war, and was causing a crisis to raise oil prices , however it failed and oil prices still dropped Iran called it quits saying possible US entry into the war and high casualties and poor battlefield performance and growing Iraqi strength made it quit the war. The collapse in oil prices also led to the collapse of the Soviet economy. made worse by its really bad economic mismanagement, really bad corruption, poor command Soviet economy, very high military spending, and massive economic assistanace to its allies for little economic benefit in return. Yep even back then the Soviet economy was heavilly dependent on oil natural gas and other resource exports(even more so back then than now). , the Soviets really did not have a domestic market and did not export on a big scale its finished products to the west. in fact, its weapons manufactured on a massive scale back in the cold war, did not really make the Soviets money as they were given to allied nations rather than sold to them. Iranians in the 80s even worse they were almost totally dependent on oil exports to fund its war with Iraq. The Iraqis had USA and Saudi economic support to prop up its economy.
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best way to defeat the Russians not tanks, hit them with swarms and fleets of Toyota Hiluxes and tacomas with mounted javelins, with star streaks and stingers in a mobile fast war of mobility , Toyota pick up trucks hard to hit, easy to maintain cheap to buy, rugged, very relialble good on gas and bit more mobiile and flexible and tanks and other tracked AFVs on open hard terrrain which is southern Ukraine, Open hard plains with good clear weather. do hit and run mobile warfare on the Russians, a speeding Toyota pick up truck can even outrun ATGM targetting lasers hard to hit with tank guns, also hard to hit with artillery, Russian air power warded off with manpads. and mounted star streaks. Chadians used them to demolish Libyan tank armies. same can be done by the Ukrs on Russian tank armies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsqWmU8oD_M
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that is why when I was working security, never to get involved in domestic disputes problems , since the victim can easilly turn around and blame the people who are trying to solve the problem, that is why domestic dispute police calls are dangerous since it can get deadly for all those involved and the people the cops are trying to help turn around and blame the cops for anyone who got killed or injured int he domestic incident. I remember one case where I was security Metrotown Vancouver mall back in 2010 when security had to deal with a husband openly beating his wife bloody in the mall food court, we intervened, stopped the attack and took the husband down(yah took like 4 secrutiy guards to hold him down ) threw him in the mall jail.(yes we have a jail in metrotown mall). When the cops came, the wife all bloody turned around and accused security of beating the husband for no reason. Well, everything was caught on camera, wife was screaming at us. Nothing came out of it, and the wife and husband were trying to sue the mall and security nothing came out of it. The husband and wife were banned from the mall, and both of them kept coming back and security had to kick them both out. with the wife screaming of harassment. haha.
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Not surprsied The Ukrs did a masterful job defending Bakhmut and inflicting Massive losses on the Russians, if the Russians thought this woulid be a meatgrinder the jokes are on them. The battle of Bakhmut has been going on since August 1 2022, yep, it took 6 months for the Russians to take a small town, this is not even a city. with a pre war population of 2K to 5K people. its a small town. In my estimation Russians lost around 50K casualties(of that 20K dead) at Bakhmut alone Ukrainians lost like 10K(of that 1K dead) casualties. Yes Bakhmut has a good position as a high elevated area. but the Ukrainians still have extensive lines of trenches and fortifications beyond Bakhmut. In fact according to Prigo the psycho bald leader of Wagner, he thinks it will take at least 1 year to conquer all of the Donbass and reacah the Dnipro....LOL> Now let us compare the Battle of Bakhmut to last year';s simliar battle in the Donbas called the battle of Sieverdonetsk in mid 2022, taht one lasted about a month and a half the Russians captured it with about 20K casualties. inflicting probably 10K Ukr casualties. and mid 2022 the Ukrainian army was a bit weaker than it is now, in Feb 2023. The Ukr army in mid 2022 was int he middle of reorganizing and rearming itself to a NATO standard military. Now in Feb 2023 I think the Ukrainian army is basically a NATO standard army using the NATO combat doctrine while still using mainly Russian Soviet weaponry has a lot of NATO weapons. and much more experienced than they were mid 2022. The Russian army on the other hand has become weaker than they were than mid 2022. While retaining their Soviet style centralized combat doctrine have now switched from a tank heavy offensive force to a infantry heavy offensive force using WW1 style infantry tacitcs. backed up witih heavy artillery support. While the Russian army is still formidable and stronger than the Ukrainian army with more fire power, I estimate the Russian army is 50 percent weaker than they were a year ago. Having lost 200K Casualites( I think 250K casualties) and several thousands of vehicles. and a few hundred aircraft. now having to buy artillery ammo from her allies due to very bad artillery wastage. So compare Battle of Sieverdonetsk(1 1/2 months for the Russians to win 20K casualties mid 2022), Battle of Bakhmut(6 months for the Russian to win, 50K casualties mid 2022 to early 2023). Looking at the statistics looks like the Russians will have to mobilize at least 5 million men to take all of the Donbass. Since I think the Russians will have to pay at least 1 million casualties just trying to take all of the Donbass and that is counting the Ukrainians will probably keep on counterattacking as they get stronger.
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the morons the Russians are recruiting from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, Latin America and China is currently learning that the war is not all that is cracked up to be, in fact thousands of them are dying on the Ukrainian batttlefield being treated as cannon fodder. Very poor quality troops that are more of a burden than a plus to the Russian army. and this is only a temporary advantage for the Russian army, yes they will get tens of thousands of these cannon fodder in the short term but as the war goes and many of them are dying, and the results are being shown on social media, and the survivors go back to their families in their home countries and say signing up for the war is not worth it, since they dont get paid by the Russians, they get abused badly by the Russians, and are beaten if they refuse to fight, or worse shot if they attempt to retreat and the chances of the recruits dying and their bodies not recovered by their families is very high.
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Russia currently is in a similar situation to the Russian empire before the 1917 Russian civil war. 40 percent of its budget is now geared to military spending. and its shifting 6 percent and more of its economy to war. its in a bloody stalemate not winning in Ukraine. suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses., more repression of free speech from the state. Rising food prices. It will get worse in the next few years culminating in Russia becoming more repressive suffering from venezuela style hyperinflation, suffering from battlefield defeats and even more significant casualties. This will trigger widespread protests in Russian cities , and lead to more Russian gov repression, and the match that causes the fire will be simliar to the start of the Russian civil war in 1917, Russian security forces massacre Russian civilian protesters which leads to a general mutiny in the Russian army,
As the Russian gov collapses so does the collapse of the command and control of the Russian army in Ukraine, which is taken advantage of by the Ukrainian army who launches major offensives which collapses the Russian army in Ukraine and Ukraine regains a lot of its lost territory in the offensives. The end of the Ukraine war ends not with a negotiation but with the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing in mass surrenders and desertions with their officers abandoning their troops just like in the end of the 1st Chechen war. There is no Russian gov to negotiate with .
The upcoming Russian civil war which I think starts in 2027(110 years from the start of the last one) wil be very bloody. and also have a lot of factions. I think the west and China will meddle in the war and support their proxies. However just line in the 1917 to 1922 civil war which had the Reds(communists) vs. the whites(anti communists), this civil war it will be Freedom/Liberty and the letter L who are supported by the west and Ukraine vs. the Nationalists/Patriots and the letter Z supported by China.
With the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, the Russians left massive amounts of weapons and military equipment , many of which will be given to the Russian Freedom Legion which I think will be massively expanded into a real army(from 2 current battalions as of April 2024). with recruits from the surrendered Russian soldiers in Ukraine and volunteers from Russia itself along with volunteers from Ukraine and other countries. and aided by support from the west.
The other side is like the whites during the 1917 Russian civil war, factionalized with an assortment of Russian nationalist movements and regional militias but with the uniting goal of being opposed to liberal democratic Russia that is influenced by the west. China supports it with funds and weapons.
The Freedom of Russia army is more coordinated and united with support from the west plus a head start in former Russian army weapons and equipment and large appeal from the Russian people. The Patriots also have a significant influence from the Russian people and initially have a bit larger recruit base but is poorly coordinated but support heavilly by China, Iran, North Korea etc.
The Russian civil war is bloody and also affects its neighbours as millions of Russian refugees cross into their countries with teh largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Also well armed Russian bandits raid into their neighbours and also become pirates, the Russian navy has practically devolved into a Pirate navy hijacking shipping in the black caspain and Baltic seas .
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I think when Biden wins in 2024 this year, and the dems sweep gain control of the US house and senate, and an even more massive aid package is approved for ukraine in 2025 it will be the beginning of the end for Russia in Ukraine. with Trump probably in prison, the Rep party is disarray, maga its back broken losing control of the rep party. and the dems with the upper hand. I can see the war ending in 2026 or 2027 with a total Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, I think the Russian economy will be key to Russian defeat as it will be in real bad shape in 2026 onwards leading to social destabilization in Russia, along with possible major Russian defeats in the battlefield. Russians cut their loses, Russian elites depose putin, withdraw from all of Ukraine including the Crimea in return for lifting of all sanctions, no reparations for Ukraine , unfreezing of the 350 billion USD Russian wealth fund frozen in western banks, also the Russians agree to Ukraine joining the EU and NATO and a formal peace treaty made between Ukraine and Russia. and normalization of relations between Russia and the west.
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yah the Soviets exacted a brutal revenge on the Germans, my turning half of Germany and their capital Berlin into ruins, parking lots, looted the crap out of half of German , looted and destroyed infrastructure, killed millions of German troops and civilians, raped thousands of women old and young, sent hundreds of thousands of German troops to USSR to be forced slave labour which only 50 thousand came back alive. then subjected half of Germany to Communist dictatoship for the next 45 years, I would say that is revenge paid in full and its not finished yet, as of 2022, the Germans are much dependent on Russia for energy and the Russians are threatening to make it a cold winter for the Germans in 2022.
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in this timeline. Savimbi and UNITA wins in Angola due to Cape support. and no SADF mercs helping to kick him out. Angola becomes a Cape ally. Iriphabuliki is a zimbabwe like economically depressed country which has been rearming with Chinese and North korean help in order to conquer the Cape Republic. By 2021. due to 1 or two major wars between the two countries and constant border conflict. Both have national conscription. THe Cape military is more advanced, more professional and well trained while the Irphabuliki is larger in size. In the wars and border conflicts between them, the Cape usually comes out on top. though by 2021 , the irphabuliki has a much improved military due to Chinese help. China controls the Iriphabuliki econmomy just like it controls the Zimbabwean economy. Also this changes history , in the Congo wars. without Angolan internvention, Kabilla is deposed , the 2nd congo war is a minor war. and the DRC is ruled by a Pro Rwanda gov. with wamba or bemba as pres. So in thsi timeline, as of 2021, the Cape's allies in Africa are Angola, DRC, Rwanda and Burundi. everyone else is allied to Irphabuliki.
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hey Canadian winters make Euro winters look like kindergarden, In Alberta its normal to have minus 50 C days , and on average during a normal winter in Alberta , Sask, etc. it can go to minus 25 C. hahaha. heck in Vancouver Canaada , the miami of Canada, it went as low as minus 20C a record, and winter here on average it can go to minus 10 C. and the cold in Vancouver is wet cold, like humid cold, its the cold that bites, and is worse than Euro dry colds. heck im so used to the weather here in Vancouver, I can walk around in a t shirt in minus 15 C wet cold, wooo hooo hahahah
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well overall the Ukrs have done very well vs. the supposedly 2nd strongest military power on earth Russia, Ukraine has retaken 50 percent of what they lost, yah Russia still holds around 20 percent of Ukraine territory but it used to be 40 percent. until the successful Ukr Kiev, kherson and Kharkov offensives. Yes the Russians can field massive amounts of men and equipment but the problem is the horrible state of Russian logistics, Russians are reliant on rail transport with truck disembarking from the rail heads to support units in the field, the Ukrs focused
hitting Russian logistics with missles and JDAMs. hitting rail heads, trains, ammo dumps command and control centers(Russian command and control is centralized). Basically yes, the Russians have a lot of manpower and military equipment and ammo but the Russian ability to bring them to the battlefield, shift them to critical points is horrible due to Ukr focus on hitting Russian logistics. and command and control, that is why the Russians are not able to sustain big offensives of the 50K variety and have to do smaller shorter offensives. When the Russians try to do big offensives it simply falls apart quickly due to supply shortages like what happened recently in the Kharkov oblast at Kupiansk Svatove, Russians attacked with 100K men 900 tanks 500 artillery pieces backed up by heavy air support , in one week vs. light Ukainian defense they were able to tear a 8 KM hole in the Ukr lines, however due to the Ukrs hitting Russian logistics and the fact the area of attack wsa far from their rail heds and there ar few good roads in the area for their trucks and the fact the open fields which was the mian terrain wer heavlly mined by the Ukrs, and the fact the Ukrs were hitting Russian logistics heavilly , means the Russians were not able to exploit the 8 KM hole they made and the Ukrs not only quickly plugged the hole with reinforcements but also is closing the hole and pushing the Russians back in counterattacks. due to bad Russian supply shortages.
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Yep Russia like the USSR is a patchwork of republics under the rule of Moscow. If you have a strong czar in Moscow like the old Putin, Russia is together. If Putin kaputski with defeat in the Ukraine war, and social politicla and economic chaos in Russia, you will have Russia disintergrate into several independent republics, which may or may not be temporary. Like during the Russian civil war 1917 to 1922 , the Russian empire actually collapsed into several republics, with militias and private armies forming along political and ethnic lines. and the USSR was formed from the ashes by the victors of the civil war the Red army who managed to reclaim about 80 percent of the old Russian empire(minus the baltic states, Finland, Poland). , the fall of the USSR saw another 25 percent get sheered off(Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic states, , Azeribaijan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Uzebekistan) go their own way. So if Russia goes into civil war, I think the Russian federation will be 75 percent intact and we can see new nations being formed esp. in the Caucasus area.
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Next movie Id like you guys to review are: A Bridge too far(one of the best war movies of the 70s), Circle of Deceit(1981) excellent German journo war movie set in Beirut during the Lebanese civil war, also shot in Lebanon, the movie extras were actually part time militia fighters in the civil war. Cross of Iron, Zepplin, Waterloo(Steiger), Stalingrad(1993), Saigon Off limits, Centurion, Tora Tora Tora, Big red one, Lebanon, the Beast, the last Hunter, the last Valley, Under Fire(Nolte) , Salvador.
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yah cause Russian front line military hospitals care centers suck at medical, Russian battlefield medical is horrible. most of the time, only officers get evaced to good medical care, everyone else, GOOD LUCK YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN....or if you are lucky enough to have a friend officer or have a pull with a gov official you might get also evaced out. Otherwise, the average Russian soldier at the front does not even have adequate first aid kits, they use clothes rags, tampons(LOL) for bandages and wound blockers. and yah vodka(the cheapo and fake one) for anaesthesia and disinfecton. That is why there a a lot more Russians dying of their injuries which can be treated than the Ukrainians and if Russian soldiers are wounded many cant even be put back in the field since they would be permanently injured or dead. and that is for regulars, conscripts , mobiks, the Z convict Russian troops its even worse, ive seen videos and heard stories where Z convict troops who are wounded getting executed by their officers. its that insane in the Russians army.
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even if war ends with a peace deal which leaves 20 percent of Ukraine in Russian hands. You will have an angry vengeful Ukraine that is rebuilding and rearming for another future war. and Russia will be in trouble political , economically socially with a economy dangerously in war mode and depressed with hyperinflation, socially in trouble as hundreds of thousands of crazy war veterans coming back to a depressed economy in hyperinflation, will make the 90s Russian crime wave look like kindergarden. and most foreign investors wont be coming back to Russia, and while all the sanctions will be lifted the europeans their best customers wont really be buying from the Russians anymore...all these economic factors will lead to heavy disruption of Russian efforts to recover from the war and rebuiild their military.
and also politically, making war with their neighbors , Ukraine or NATO will really be the furthest thing from Putin's mind, he just escaped a existential threat that was the war, and I dont think he will have the stomach to start another major war. esp. with NATO, so he will be focused post war on rebuilding his economy and military and esp. securing his regime. and i think Russia will be politically unstable after the war, since the Russians wont feel they won the war, yah sure they took 20 percent of ukraine which are mostly ruins and will take hundreds of billions of USD to rebuild and demine(millions of landmines in those territories they conquered). at the cost of like 1 million casualties. their military stocks carefully stockpiled for several decades now mostly depleted and Russian military prestige embarassed and down the shitter. Russian elites will probably be sharpening their knives for Putin after the war. and Putin cant just purge them since they have their own PMCs or private armies. and post war with the Russian army discredited probably the army gets a massive wave of quits and these soldiers join the oligarchi PMCs for better pay and working conditions. Yep Russia may win quote on quote when I say win the war where the Putin regime does not collapse. but later Putin regime will probably collapse in civil war. Possibly due to a failing Russian economy in hyperinflation, social unrest , and Putin dong purges to secure his power.
So while Russia in civil war, you have a resurgent very angry and vengefuli Ukraine now rearmed and stable in the position to retake its lost territories.
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bet you the Russian military leadership is micromanaged by Putin right down to the brigade level and the generals he appoints are incompetent ass kissers who dont have military experience on the ground. Putin does the strategy and gives it to the generals to do the tactics, and they are using a centralized inflexible soviet style command and control system which every command is followed to the letter no matter the conditions of the situation. also they are commanding what is tantamount to in cold war NATO designations of SOviet units as category C Russian military units which are the bottom of the barrell in the Russian army, like low morale, poorly trained, only functional as garrison troops but not fit for operations. probably 50 to 75 percent of their manpower and equipment allocations , with poor quality poor leadership officers , a poor logistical situation. and the Russians hope to blundgeon the Ukrainians to death with masses of these troops using WW1 style tactics. and the Russians are facing battle hardened Ukrainians well armed good logistics, high morale and motivation , OK trained, flexible NATO style command and control, in good defensive positions...that is why you get massacres of Russian troops like Vulhedar.
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In the negotiations , PUtin will threaten to use more chems and maybe even nukes to stop more Ukrainian offensives. They'll claim they used chems since Ukrainians have just invaded Russian territory. or some BS like that.k Putin by this time knows his army is kaput. so wants a face saving reason for peace. with great bitterness. the Ukrs agree to part with the eastern part of the donbass but again Ukraine does not recognize this and Crimea's annexation. Ukraine will still not be part of the EU and NATO however very close cooperation with them. Massive marshal plan trillion dollars at least to repair Ukraine. For Russia, lifting of many sanctions, some still in place due to Russia's occupation of Crimea and East DOnbass. While its back to business as usual, Russia's economy has been badly hurt by the war and sanctions. war scared off the investors. Putin tightens his hold on Russia, scaring millions to leave the country. Europeans really offended by the large scale use of chems by the Russians which not only kills Ukr soldiers but also lots of civilians. boycotts of Russian products worldwide esp. in the 1st world continues. Economic chaos in Russia. China steps in besides lending money to Russia to keep the the Russian economy alive, China starts also getting Russian resources are bargain prices. China also buys a lot of Russian weapon systems , submarines missles etc. However Putin's leadership stops the Chinese from buying off Russian companies. Putin tries to reform the Russian army downsizes it massively tries to make it more professional but this is slow going since Russia has other more pressing matters to attend to. The Russian army has stopped becoming a strong monolithic army to a territorial defense force. Putin probably dies in the next five to ten years. Reputation broken, legacy kaput , Russia is in sort of political chaos first free elections in Russia. Next Russian leadership is more acceptable to the west. However Russian economy while stabilized is still in bad shape, just like the 90s. and with Putin gone. China steps in more, buys up more Russian corporations, extends her influence into Central Asia Caucasus for their very important resources. The war in Ukraine has really been beneficial to China having gotten CHina access to cheap resources , upgraded its weapons tech, not surpirsed CHina hires out Russian scientists to upgrade its weapons systems for a future showdown with the USA. Russia has effectively become a economic vassal to China. Belarus , LUkashenko gone, democratic Belarus gov. which similiar to Ukraine goes heavilly to the west, lots of USA , 1st world investments that fled Russia go into Ukraine and Belarus. Im not surprised after Putin is gone, wih the price of massive economic aid and lifting of the rest of the sanctions, , Russia can agree to have Ukraine and Belarus join the EU but not NATO, probably even Moldova. Giving back Crimea and Donbass are very dicey political topics the Russians will not give those up. Due to the war Russia has lost prestige, and has become a scorned laughingstock. Its oligrachs have also lost a lot since the west sequestered confiscated a lot of their assets due to the massive use of Chemical weapons by the Russians.
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Im voting for Biden. So Ive been voting since 1980, so my record is. Reagan, Reagan, Bush Sr. , Bush Sr. Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Mccain, Obama, Hilary, Biden. SO since 1980 Ive voted Rep: 5, Demo 6. And interestingly I consider myself center right in ideology.
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as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change.
I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine.
In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc.
The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse.
Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline.
Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse.
Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956.
Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks.
All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them.
Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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Yep the Russian performance, and plan was really farcical, they envisioned 1-2 weeks war with minimal casualties and a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian gov. what Putin got instead was a war still going on for more than 1 year, the Russians losing 50 percent of their intiial territorial conquests and the worst casualties since WW2, worst losses than all the wars the USSR and Russia was involved in combined after WW2 and that is just one year. with the Russians losing 200K to 250K casualties so far. and several thousands of vehicles. and its not only a stupidly optimistic plan and poor execution , its a whole host of problems like corruption, outdated inflexible Soviet era combat doctrine, poor command and control, poor training, morale. poor leadership. poor logistics, poor coordination, a whole host of problems top to bottom which the Russians as of this writing has not really improved on or at least changed for the better. These days you have a Russian army trying to batter the Ukrainian army with numbers fighting like it was either World war 1 or 2.
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my take on how Russia loses this war, Kamala Harris wins Nov 2024, even better if Congress and senate are controlled by the dems. and the USA massively ups aid to Ukraine in 2025. a Kamala Harris win alone in Nov 2024 wil cause a massive Political tsunami in Russia, the Russian elites know the Russian economy cant support another 4 years of war, and the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrell in terms of refurbishing Soviet stocks of tanks and APCs, even better if the Ukrainians score a major victory ont he battlefield. in 2025 I can see the Russian elites and disgruntled military officers start organizing to chuck Putin out of a window and get a new regime going which I think happens in 2025 or in 2026.
WIth a new regime , negotiations occur and the Russians totally withdraw from Ukraine including crimea, in exchange all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets unfrozen in Western banks, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. , normalization of relations with the west. a formal peace treaty recognizing borders. That is how the war ends with a Kamala harris win in 2024.
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my view the longer the war goes the more destroyed the Russian economy is, yes the Russian economy is currently experiencing growth but its artificial gov spending for the war economy to support the war in Ukraine. The longer the war goes, more money for Russian infrastructure, more of the civlian economy will be converted to manufacture of military supplies and equipment to support the war in Ukraine. Supposedly a whopping 40 percent of the current Russian budget 2024 is being spent on the war on Ukraine.
This is a long term disaster. and the Russian minister of economy has already stated that the Russian economy cannot handle this one indefinitely , there will be a turning point in the Russian economy starting with hyperinflation, rising prices of essentials such as food , gasoline etc. when the Russian economy starts collapsing.
This will cause resentment in Russia towards the Russian gov, of course this will lead to more unrest and more Gov crackdowns on dissent. also add to that discontent in the Russian military on how the war is being run. esp. when Russia after a biden win this year 2024, and facing a tank and APC shortage due to their cold war stocks running out by late 2025 and their tank and APC production and refurbishments cannot keep up with losses on the battlefield coupled with Ukrainian major victories in the front. Made worse by incompetent corrupt uncaring and rigid Russian military and political leadership.
Prigozhin's uprising in 2023 was only the first and he did it to address the incompetencies of Russian military command in Ukraine(among other things). I think a much bigger uprising will occur in the Russian military coupled with Russian civlian uprisings triggering a collapse of the Russian economy and then the Russian gov. and then collapse in the Russian military command.
Like a domino this will be the start of the Russian revolution 2.0 then civil war. or Time of troubles 2.0(or 3.0 whichever you prefer). This will be much worse than the 90s which the Russian like to hanker back on. The Russians will wish the 90s was back to what is coming for Russia.
The Russian civil war that is coming will be even more bloodier than the Ukraine war, it will be a massive geopolitical event like the 1917 to 1922 civil war and will probably draw international intervention( not surprised if UN peacekeeping troops are deployed in Russia), millions of Russian refugees and Russian dead. and Russia breaking up. It will be a geopolitical great game between USA and China as they support their proxies. Russia will become the largest failed state in the world. A massive version of Syria/Somalia.
The new Russia that will come out of the mess will probably be significantly smaller with new nations being born. I posit the largest of these will be the Russian federation with Moscow as its capital will one day decades after the civil war liberal and democratic finally thown down its Soviet shackles will join the EU and NATO.
When will this happen, ....my estimates, analysts say the Russian economy will run out of steam by 2025, Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs will run out by late 2025. So I am positing it occurs around 2027. the 110th anniversery of the 1917 revolution.
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yes always have a plan B and C. and maybe even D just in case that is why Zelensky did not criticize trump at all. he smart hedging his bets. so now its Plan B. time to butter up trump and play games , 2025 will be game negotiations with Trump. In my opinoin the situation is Trump is pres. Trump is for himself , Trump has lots of assets and investments in Russia, also borrowed lots o money from Russian, lots of Russian investments in his companies. So Trump really has vested interest with Putin. HOWEVER....the big guys in the USA and European political and military industria infrastructure have a vested interest to see Russia not win this war, their goal, a much weakened economically and military Russia without Putin and a weak Russian gov. but a Russia stable and not in civil war. Trump may think he is da man, but nope he has to answer to these people. who are much richer than he is.
So Trump probably has a vested interest which coincides with the vested interest of the leaders of the American political sphere and military industrial complex. A weakened Russia stable with a weak gov is easilly exploitable by US companies for its cheap natural resources esp . by Trump who is just salivating to get more money from this. and also with Ukraine, the big boys in the US gov and miltiary want Ukraine to not only survive but serve as a foil vs. Russia. Like a wall to keep Russia out of Europe. and to that end , USA and the Europeans want a strong Ukrainian military and a stable ukrainian gov . and the hundreds of billions of USD in Ukrainian reconstruction money comiong will handsomely benefit trump .
So I think 2025 will be the year of negotiations, and the war will go on, and there is an even chance the USA continues military aid to Ukraine even under trump. Seeing that possibly in 2026 you might see the start of the collapse of the Russian economy with hyperinflation along with widespread discontent which leads to Putin getting removed from power.
So in the future maybe in the USA interest to keep a strong Ukraine hostile to the Russians to act as a wall for Europe, and a Russia will a weak Russian gov and military but with a stable more or less gov that is easilly exploitable for its cheapo natural resources.
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kind of embarassing for Russia, you mean VERY EMBARRASSING FOR RUSSIA, like Russia with 10X the GDP, 10X the military firepower , 5X the population vs. Ukraine should by all accounts defeated and Overrun Ukraine by now, and the Russians boasted 3 days Ukraine would fall, well its now almost 3 years and the Russians are struggling defeat ukraine and expand the 20 percent of the country they currently hold. while suffering 2K casualties a day. and as for Kursk, let see, its already 4 months, and the Russians cant seem to evict the Ukrainians from Kursk, and for Russia a country that constantly brags about how powerful its military is, its VERY EMBARASSING.
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oh yah and the supposedly valiant suicidal Hamas forces celebrating attacking IDF troops in their go pro videos, their attacks have not stopped IDF offensives into Gaza, in fact it only irritated the IDF, did not even slow down the IDF offensives who are doing it careful and slow going. in fact, the Hamas said they blow up dozens of IDF tanks when in reality a few were disabled, and in repair. and crews alive. and will shortly go back into combat. the thousands of Hamas fighters the Israelis killed and wounded are not going back to the fight, noting Hamas medical supplies are running low. they dont have enough doctors, to treat their thousands of wounded. and Israelis bombs missles and artillery are very precise. The Go pro videos made by Hamas are meant ot what??? celebrate killing dozens of IDF soldiers while the IDF kills thousands of Hamas, in exchange, Crazy and stupid. Hey maybe one day the Palestenians will learn their real enemy are not the Israelis but their corrupt asshole leaders who steal most of their money , make them live in poverty and blame the Israelis for all their problems while living in mansions in Paris, Dubai, Lebanon etc. Did you idiots not know their revered messiah Yasir Arafat after he died they found out he stole billions of uSD and his family now lives in mansions in Paris, London and Vancouver while all of you live in poverty and in small cramped apartments in Gaza and west bank....
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Yep and that clip of those buryat troops arguing with their chechen handlers about weapons and ammo shortages, this is a very good example of what happens when you throw massive amounts of troops in the fight more than your logistics can handle, and that is a very good reason why these troops are dying in massive numbers , its turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. a target rich environment of poor trained, armed and low morale no motivation Russian troops, there were fears and scares of 500K Russian troops being sent to the front, yah massive numbers but remember those troops need to be fed, trained supplied, armed, in order to fight properly otherwise they turn into a mob that is only good as a bullet absorbers. and the Ukrainians has LOTs of bullets. and Russians logistics is chaotic , and being heavilly disrupted by HIMARs strikes. Russian logistics can be argued to be worse now than they invaded in Feb 2022. Russia may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but if they cant reach the Russian troops in the front due to poor logistics then those weapons are useless. not surprised the Ukrs to Russian kill ratio in the Donbass battles these days in like 5 to 10 Russian soldier for every one Ukrainian soldier casualtiy. also count Russian conscrupts and convicts are being forced to attack dug in , fortified Ukrainian positions many times in high ground positions, with claymore mines, minefields, fields of fire in relatively open ground. attacking mainly in the day since these convicts and conscrupts do not have night vision gear. this is a MASSACRE. that is why its takes a week to dislodge Ukrainian positions. Even with the Russians doing incremental attacks like advancing then digging in then doing it again later going from fire position to fire positions, the Ukrainains just rain accurate artillery fire on them. Worse later if the Ukrs get cluster munititions for theiir missles and artillery,
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not surprised if Patrushev is running Russia right now having won the struggle with SHoigu, so after Putin went belly up and frozen, the FSB/Rosgvardia(under Patrushev) and the Russian army/GRU(under Shoigu) were ruling Russia jointly but there was a power struggle in the background. However starting early 2024 due to the poor Russian army performance in Ukraine, the FSB won the power struggle, hence Patrushev is in the driver's seat and SHoigu sidelined. Yep so you have a hardliner Patrushev running the show, with the FSB in command of the Russian army. and the war in Ukraine. If that is so, Ive heard Patrushev is even more of a war hawk than Putin and has maximalist goals on Ukraine. If the war goes on and bloodily stalemated with a depressed Russian economy, Patrushev may well lose his position, however from what I heard, Patrushev/FSB won the power struggle handidly and effectively removed Shoigu's supporters in the Russian army and gov. and Patrushev boys are now firmly in charge of the Russian army. so there is really no major faction to challenge Patrushev/FSB for now. Patrushev has also purged (fired and or arrested) possible dissenters in the Russian army. the Loud mouth Prigozhin is dead, Surovikin I hear has been arrested, Igor Girkin is languishing in prison. (rumored to be dead). Navalny dead. and so on, that means Patrushev probably cleaned out purged any possible rival to his regime. and now the Russian army officer corps are populated by yes men and FSB informants. along with lots of micromanagement down to the battalion level from the Kremlin. That is why you notice the Russian army tactics are not just plain jane unimaginative attritional meat attacks. However I do hear a lot of grumblings in the Russian officer corps and many are not happy with how the war is being run. So if the Patrushev flubs up, we could see possible revolt from the Russian army.
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absolutely correct, Russia has been losing badly in Ukraine since oct 2022. yes people may hee and hawe that Russia has captured bakhmut and marinka, look the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, what people do not say is that 1. the Russian economy is getting degraded , Russian ruble is currently 1 USD to 90 rubles , price of eggs rose 50 percent, etc. 2. Ukraine despite all what the western analysts had said recaptured 50 percent of what they lsot pushing the Russians back against all the odds. 3. Ukrainians are sinking Russian ships big ones too and Ukraine does not have a navy. 4. Russians are fielding T-55s and WW2 artillery to Ukraine, the last time the Russians fielded large numbers of T-55s was during the invasion of Czechslovakia in 1968. 5. Russia is buying and begging weapons from Iran and North Korea. those countries were really looked down as laughinstocks by Russia before the war. 6. Russian army is recruiting from convicts and doing human trafficking to get recruits. 7. the front has not changed much since Dec 2022, its a bloody stalemate , however what's changed Russian casualties back in dec 2022 was about 100K casualties , Now near Jan 1 2023 , 356K casualties , the Russian losses have been horrendous since the moron Russian generals have been using WW1 style human wave tactics on fortified Ukrainian positions with no regard of losses. Im not surprised by the time this war ends you will have 1 million Russian casualties. Also out of those 50 percent are fatalities mainly due to poor Russian battlefield medical , shortage of first aid kits .
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Russian military prestige is down the toilet. it is shite. while Ukraine has proven itself probably the best military in Europe. like Russia has 10X the economy, the military firepower and 5X the populaiton when compared to Ukraine, and land size, Ukraine is a midget compared to a massive Russian geography , in all accounts, Russia should have won already, within a year. heck they planned to win in 3 days LOL. yet 3 years later, 800K Russian casualties, Russia controls only 20 percent of Ukraine or an area the size of Pennsylvania , heck its so bad, the Ukrainians invaded Russia and took an area in Kursk Russia the size of Los Angeles and 5 months later they still hold it despite massive ferocious Russian attacks, and the Russians suffered mearly 40K casualties, heck its so bad the Russians had to beg the North Koreans to help repel the Ukrainians hahahahah. and the Ukrainians are bombing Russia with drones and missles and destroying Russian oil refiniries, airfields , ammo depots. if someone told me on Feb 2022, that in 2024 the Ukrainians would be bombing Russia with impunity Id say you were crazy but hey here we are, hahhahah. RUSSIA IS LOSING THE WAR.
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I think Biden will win 2024 this year and the dems will sweep and gain control of the house and senate, the Rep party is in a big mess full of maga whackjobs a big turn off for American voters. the polls might show Trump in the lead but I dont believe the polls. when the dems sweep the board this year 2024, 2025 will be annus horribilis for Putin , Trump , Russia, and Maga and the US rep party. with the dems in control of the white house, congress and senate, they will probaxbly approve the largest aid package to Ukraine, and this will have a massive effect on the war in Ukraine, in 2025, and beyond, and also the USA dems sweeping the board int he 2024 elections will have a massive impact on the Kremlin, I think mental depression will reign on the heads of the Russian leaders and propogandists, doom and gloom and all that. Im not surprised if the Ukrainians score major victories in 2025 forcing the Russians to mobilize more men and even worse the Russian economy starts going down in a major way in 2025 and 2026. Also Trump goes to Prison and his allies turn on him. Maga is kaput, and the rep party is in civil war between pro maga and anti maga factions.While the war wont end in 2025, I can see it being a ground work for the final outcome of the war which I think might end in 2026 or 2027. as the biden admin finally wants to get rid of the Russia problem once and for all.
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this proves the Russians dont have the logistics and the men and armor to defeat the Ukrainians, in fact them very much limiting their goals to taking the Donbass means they know they made a grave very very bad mistake of invading Ukraine in the first place and now trying to end the war with taking the Donbass, annoucing they achieved their objectives and demanding peace with their terms to the Ukrainains, Ukrainians knows this and will not accept Russian peace terms, in fact, the only terms the Ukrainains will accept is the Russians to withdraw back to the pre war borders. If Putin does this his political career is Kaput and so is his life. He is trying to fight his way out in order to eke a win out of this fiasco he put himself in and survive but it is not working.The Russians will after conquering the donbass, fortify their winnings pour in more conscripts to go on the defensive. and then demand peace on their terms. of course the Ukrainians will not accept so the Russians will probably pressure them by missle and bombing terror attacks on ukr cities, possible limited punitive offensives designed to inflict Ukr losses and then do scorched earth on Ukr territory then withdraw(very bad idea for the Russians) waving around their nuke arsenal threatening to nuke everyone, ratchet up tensions between them and NATO by doing border incidents or even a naval incident to raise the price of oil. The Russians will try to wear down USA EU support for the Ukrainians which is hte most important since the Ukrainians are being kept afloat by massive financial and military support from the USA and the EU and NATO. and their allies. cutting this off weakens the Ukrainians. and the Russians hope USA and the EU can pressure Ukraine into accepting Russian peace terms. On the other hand, the USA and EU NATO know this and while support for Ukraine might lessen and slacken there will still be significant support from western Govs for Ukraine. and probably more sanctions vs. Russia. They know the main Russian weakness is their economy. Hurt the economy enough and it ends the war in Ukraine. Its all about the economy and in Russia's case, its the oil and gas prices high and needs to be collapsed. along with the EU as a whole ending their reliance on Russian energy exports. Russia is in a losing spiralling game here with their economy under siege from massive sanctions,and the question is how long can Russia last supporting their war in Ukraine.
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after this war is over whether Russia loses or not , the war has taken a massive toll on Russia, so much I dont think Putin will have the stomach to attack anyone. after the war is over Russia will be economic, political and socially unstable and there will be recriminations vs. Putin from his elites and as the economy deforms more from the Russian people and Putin will respond to crackdowns and purges possibly even martial law to stabilize his regime. Yep not surprised if swan lake plays on Russian tv shortly after the war is over and who knows what happens after Putin is gone. with a Russia that is poltiically unstable , depressed economically with high crime rates, many PMCs private armies of the Russian oligarchs running around , with a weak post Putin Russian leadership , bad hyperinflation, and a discredited Russian army with a high desertion quitting rate with recruits going to Russian PMCs making Russian oligarchs strong enough to defy Moscow, along with political power struggles, Russia may descend into civil war in the aftermath of the war. Perfect conditions for civil war.
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When Biden wins, it will cause a Tsunami in the halls of the Kremlin, yah Putin will probably double down but his elites will probably cut their losses kick him out and get a new guy in the Kremlin and end the war in Ukraine,
Im still confident when Biden wins this year 2024, the elites will remove Putin , blame everything on him, then end the war by mid to late 2025. With a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea. In return Russians get a formal peace treaty with Ukraine, lifting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west, all the frozen Russian money in western banks are unfrozen. No ICC court hunts vs. Russian war criminals.
In the aftermath: Ukraine economy booms with trillions of USD in reconstruction moneyi from the west surging into Ukraine, Ukraine gets EU and NATO memvbership with no response from the Russians, Belarus , Georgia replace their pro Russian govs with Pro EU ones.
Russia goes into political and economic chaos worse than the 90s with the west having to economicallyi support the new Moscow gov to keep the Russian economy from collapsing and staving off civil war. The new Russian gov is fragile and has weak authority esp. with lots of Russian PMCs running around the country. along with foreign meddling in its affairs. Russia becomes a great game between USA, China , Turkey. EU. for control of its natural resources. Its even made worse with a future crash in world oil prices. Russia does not go into full fledged civil war but parts of Russia either secede or go into some sort of autonomy from Moscow. Russia is beset from high crime ratres law lessness , hyperinflation etc. coupled with gov incompetence and corruption. millions of Russians flee to Europe and elsewhere.
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Even if Russian captures the Donbass, the war will not end, Ukraine will never accept any armistice or ceasefire unless the Russians leave all territories in Ukr they occupied in 2022. The Russians may think the war will end with the capture of the DOnbass, nope, I think the war will drag on until 2023, where the Russian war effort will collapse with teh collapse of the Russian economy. The war by end of summer of 2022 will center on the Donbass and Eastern Ukraine and devolve into a ww1 style war of attrition. Russian troops will be left in Ukraine to fend for themselves as the Russians are bankrupt, Russia simply quits the special operation. Russia experiences political and economic chaos which leads to loss of control over huge swathes of Russia east of the Urals and the Caucasus. as thousands of angry Russian soldiers in Ukraine go back to Russia , angry at the Russian gov. not paid at all, had to hitchhike their way back to Russia, discriminated against since they are poor, not white , blamed for losing the war in Ukraine, abused by their officers in the military, going back to a collapsed economy Russia , no jobs, food too expensive. abusive local leaderships in their poor area. and these soldiers know how to kill, have experience in killing handling military weapons and vehicles, wonder what they will do coming from historically rebellious to Moscow areas of Russia, you are going to have a civil war in these places who blame Moscow for all their problems and these places will seccede in fact, China will financially and materially support them to exploit their natural resources and get puppet regimes in these places. to stabilize their borders and buffer zones. Russia wont even have viable military as they are bankrupt and had to demobilize their army. and too busy dealing with internal political divisions in Moscow but also against multiple secessionist republics, complete shitshow for Moscow. I see huge swathes of Russia balkanizing into various independent republics while Russia is still a huge country they would have lost control east of the Urals , and in the Caucasus. Russia becomes a great game between the USA and China. proxy fighting for its resources.
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its not surprise Ukrs already knew the gathering of forces weeks ago, and tried to contain it with Storms hadows and JDAMs, however the Russians made a breakthru recently and have been attacking since July 19 2023 but have been stopped, why? typical shitty Russian logistics bad terrain, poor roads, open fields heavily mined by the Ukrs, and the Russian logistics still reliant on rail, and they are far from their rail head and with poor roads not enough trucks, the Russians are not able to exploit the breakthru and the Ukrs manage to plug the hole the Russians made throw back the Russians with heavy losses. This is what happens when the Russians try a offensive of this size, it falls apart due to poor logistics, bet you you will see lots of abandoned Russian tanks just like 2022, when Russian tanks were towed by tractors on Tik tok, those days will come again LOL
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Meanwhile in Asia, Japan still invades China in mid 1937. The British and French are too distracted by events in Europe. However by 1939, the Japanese are bogged down in China. Also defeat at the battle of nomonhan in 1939, the loss of a key ally in nazi Germany and deteriorating relations with GB,, USA and France, as well as increased British and French military deployments to Asia. Japanese economy has depressed to a war economy by early 1939. All these leads to a stronger "peace faction" in the Japanese gov. advocating to ending the war in China and focusing on possible war with the USSR. Meanwhile Stalin seeing the only strong threat to it was Japan, wants to remove that threat once and for all, also Japanese military weakness in the Japanese defeat at Nomonhan 1939 encourages Stalin to strike as early as possible. Soviet military forces in the far east are still not ready for a general offensive vs. the Japaense in manchuria and Korea. so Stalin massively develops the logistical and transportation infrastructure in the far east and deploys massive amounts of men and materiel to confront the Japanese. Also Stalin increases military support to the KMT Chinese to further bog down the Japanese in China. 1940 war in China continues, despite offered British, French and American mediation, peace talks between the KMT and the Japanese break down. British , American and French military aid to the KMT also increases due to Japanese atrocities in China as well as perceived threats to their Asian holdings as well as numerous provocative incidents with the Japanese military. 1941, Japanese initiate Operation 5, a multi front campaign to seize the KMT capital at Chungking. with an operation larger than the battle of Wuhan 1938. There is also another major military clash between the USSR and Japan in Mongolia bigger than Nomonhan. While the Japanese capture Changsha, and batter the KMT forces the cost is expensive. The Japanese are nowhere near Chungking, the KMT chinese are still resisting, and the Japanes have lost even more men and materiel than wuhan 1938. Also the Japanese lost badly in the largest battle between Soviet and japanese forces to date in Mongolia. as a major part of the Japanese air force was busy vs. the CHinese. Stalin is now convinced the time is ripe to solve the Japanese problem and prepares for a SOviet offensive into Manchuria in 1942.
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well in my opinion there are a bunch of ways the war can stop as a stalemate of sorts: 1. Russia uses tac nuke(s), to stop the Ukr offensives, NATO and the Russians get into a near war scenario probably shots are fired at each other but not much, it does not escalate to a major war between NATO and Russia, war comes to a Korean war style armistice with the Russians holding whatever terrtiroy they still occupy, and UN troops deploy in Ukraine to seperate Ukraine and Russians, also NATO comes into the country and declares Ukraine into a NATO protectorate. 2. USA mid term elections republican party takes control of the US congress and senate, they drop USA funding for Ukraine. no military support for Ukraine. from the USA. Zelensky is forced to negotiate with Putin....in these stalemate scenarios I think while Putin can try to save face by claiming to have won the Ukr war, since he kept Ukr territory. like 10 percent of Ukraine. The sanctions would remain, few foreign investments will come back to Russia. The Russian army is ruined. in reputation kaput, economy still collapsing. the resentment built up by the war among certain Russian minoritites comes to a boiling point with unrest which is stamped out with a iron hand from Putin. Russia essentially becomes a huge nuke armed version of Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq.with lots of repression, few economic opportunities depressed economy and lots of refugees running away . and when Putin dies, well, Russia starts to break up. Then Ukraine gets back all of its conquered lands back when a new moderate gov takes power in Russia and begs the west for financial aid. in return, Russia will withdraw from Ukraine , accept Ukraine gettting EU NATO membership and having a formal peace treaty .
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wagner is overhyped, wagner is not the only Russian PMC out there. there is Redut, Patriot, fakel plamya etc. there are supposedly a hundred or so Russian PMCs formed Wagner is one of the largest and most well known but Redut supposedly is the best paid. and of comparable size. and even better trained. And yah you can say wagner is Putin's secret weapon, more like a distraction so we focus our attention on it rather then all the other Russian PMCs which have been formed by oligarhcs, factions of the Russian army and gov. political parties, regional governors and even private citizens and nationalist groups. and while they are under the command of the Russian army and answerable to Putin and his group. they dont exactly follow orders to the tee and have independence of command more or less in the battlefield. However what will be troubling for the Russians is if Putin is overthrown, and the Russian regime collapses, as Igor Girkin said, Russia will go into civil war with many miltiais just like 1917, in this case many PMCs. When you have many PMC or private armies running around Russia and the Russian gov collapses you will have a bloody civil war.
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well the 100K men and 900 tanks and 500 arty pieces order of battle is the Russian 1st Guards Tank army, , 2nd Guard Combined arms Army & XI Army corps mostly manned by mobiks reinforced by mulitple BARS and Storm Z convict regiments. Yes lots of them but poor morale, poor quality troops and the tanks while thre are the T-90s, 80s , 72s, there are a lot of 62s and even 55s. Yes the Russians may have improved their strategy now falling back to Soviet style mech operation with two motor rifle groups attacking along a wide front and a tank formation behind ready to exploit any weak point int he enemy lines. exploiting a breakthru. Also improved logistics with shorter lines since the area is near Russia and the Russians are able to easilly supply and gather these units. Opposing them is the Ukr 66th & 32nd Mech brigade supported by the 40th artillery brigade. The Ukr 66th and 32nd are poorer quality unit made up of reservists. The Ukr high command knew of the build up but most fo the Ukr artillery and main forces were focused on Southern Ukraine Zaporizhzhya, and the Ukrainians tried to limit the build up using JDAMs and Storm Shadows to hit Russian logistics but it was not enough. the Rusian offensive started on July 19, but quickly ran into problems due to crossing open fields heavily mined by the Ukrainians, crossing rivers under heavy fire from entrenched Ukrainians on the high ground, attacking Uphill vs. entrenched Ukrainians, also not to mention lots of forests and the Ukrainians with sattelite intel knowing Russian unit dispositions nad movement. Also exacerbating the problem for the Russians is the lack of good roads, in the area, and the Russians are far from their rail lines, and Russian logistics is still very dependent on rail transport and dont have much trucks and the Ukrs are hitting their logistics hard by now. The Russians also have heavier thyan usual air support from SU-25s and attack helicopters and notice the Russians while committing lots of their forces have not really created a breaktrhu that collapses Ukrainian lines. its due to the terrain, bad Russian logistics, poor transport , Ukrainians using mobile defense , it took the Russians a week to achieve some sort of breakthru but from the info I gathered thsi breakthru was stopped by the Ukrainians and starting to be rolled back , again due to terrian, poor transport situation fo their supplies, resolute defending Ukrainians as well as a worsening logistical situation, as well as poor morale and training , the Russians are suffering heavy losses, and the offensive is slower than they would have wanted not because the Ukrs defences are strong with extensive minefields like what the Russians constructed in southern Ukraine and the Donbass but Russians logistics simply cannot handle this massive formation of men and vehicles. Im not surprirsed if you see the return to the 2022 situation ot lots of Russian vehicles getting abandoned due to lack of fuel or artillery slackening off due to ammo shortages. yes the Russians may achieve a breakthru but cannot really support it.
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yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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true ...being Chinese from the Philippines, the Chinese are all about making a buck , very capitalistic business oriented.
Yah the Chinese want to take back Taiwan not only for the land but to win their civil war which started in 1921 and has not ended yet since the KMT is still alive in Taiwan and protected by the USA. They want to get rid of the KMT and any opposition to the CCP once and for all.
As for making a buck, the CCP are very much enemies of the KMT in Taiwan and the Taiwan independence parties. much they have strong business relationships with each other, all of them are enemies but making a buck with each other.
Same can be said with the China and USA relationship. Political and military rivals but deep and strong business relationships. USA and EU are China's best business partners and customers but also China's main political and military rivals.
As for the Russian Chinese relationship. They never liked each other, heck then almost went to war in 1969 with the Sino Soviet border clashes and the USSR threatened war with China in 1979 if China besieged Hanoi . and still have some border issues. the Russians did not like the way the Chinese were pirating their military designs. and entry into their economy.
However due to the Ukraine war and desperation of the Putin gov. China is making a buck out of the Russians , also China is making a buck out of the Ukrainians. by selling both sides drones, electronic equipment , parts, and not surprised if the Ukrainians are buying artillery ammo in the black market and Chinese artillery ammo is being sold there. Russia bought lots of artillery ammo from North Korea, and North Korea has long been a middle man for military arms sales for China. During the Iran Iraq war North Korea was a middle man to sell Chinese weapons to Iran which at the time had arms embargoes on it. Meanwhile the Chinese were selling weapons directly also to the Iraqis. Again the Chinese making a buck.
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highly doubt that, the biggest loser here is Russia, Imagine , Putin , a Russian white supremacist on his hands and knees and begging the Chinese for help.....hahahhahah. wonder how that sits with Russian ultranationalists hahahaah, the Russians have long looked down on China as a laughable second rate power, now 2023, Russia is the laughable 2nd rate power. LOL. that is why Putin is looking depressed and frail, heck he not only has to play second fiddle to the Chinese but also found out Xinping is a lot bigger than him, imagine a Chinese male twice as big as a Russian male...oh how the embarasssment. LOL, bet you Xinping orders his new manservant Putin around, like orders him to get a Big mac hamburglar from the local Mcdo.
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in a continuation: Dems james M Cox wins the 1920 USA presidential elections, FDR still wins the 1932 elections after the stock market crash of 1929 and a bad recession. FDR wins the 1936 elections. Japan still invades China in mid 1937. 2nd Sino Japanese war becomes the largest war since the great war of 1914-1916. Japanese tensions with Russia(who is supporting KMT China with weapons volunteers and monies), USA, Great Britain and France. 1940 USA elections sees the election of Rep. Wendel Wilkie. a Theodore Roosvelt style interventionist who believed Japan should be neutrered just like what happened to Gerrmany during the Great war. After a series of economic sanctions and embargoes on Japan. Japan attacks, Pearl Harbour in Dec 1941 as well as a strike south into French Indochina and British Burma and Malaya to cut off aid routes to KMT China but also secure oil and other resources to continue the war into China. Japan attacks into Russia to cut off aid routes to KMT China. Japan for the first few months from Dec 1941 to early 1942 is wildly successful as the Allies are caugh off guard as they have gravely underestimated the Japanese military capabilities with the capture of Vladivostok, along with the Dutch east indies. and the Philippines, pearl harbour is hit harder than OTL with the sinkng of the US carriers and the destruction of the oil supplies at the base. Singapore however manages to hold out and the Japanese thrust into Burma is stopped in Central Burma by combined British , Indian and Chinese troops. Same with French Indochina as the Japanese are stopped near the old capital of Hue by combined French and Chinese forces. By mid 1942, the Japanese blitzkrieg bogs down as runs out of steam as its overstretched. Japan surrenders in mid 1945, after combined Allied(USA, British and French ) forces conquer Kyushu after horrendous losses and the Japanese by this time have lost most of the Pre war empire, their navy mostly sunk, The Russians, British , French and Chinese have kicked the Japanese out of mainland China and Korea., Burma and Indochina , mass famines destroyed infrastructure due to mass bombings. The British reconquer Malaya. and are fighting in the Dutch East indies. along with mass famines . Japan is occupied by the USA, France , Great Britain and the Russians. Russians are given sakhalin and Kuriles as reparations. Manchuria , Taiwan are given back to China and the Chinese are given Okinawa as reparations. the rest of Japan are partioned into colonial like zones of control by USA, Great Britain and France. Government restructured in a democracy with the Emperor becoming powerless and a figurehead. Mass executions of Japanese war crimimals int he military and civlian gov. basically Japan is partitioned just like Germany with Japan having seperate governments with seperate parliments/diets and independent governance in Kyushu, Shikoku, West and East Honshu and Hokkaido. but having a unified gov with its capital in Tokyo. Also Allied troops occupy Japan to insure Japanese military does not expand from a police force. and to defend Japan from external threats.
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well when I started trading crypto back in late 2017. I researched on wallets, 1st cardinal rule, I learned never to keep anything on exchanges.
My first wallet was a soft wallet Exodus then quickly followed by me ordering two ledger Nano S in late 2017, and two safepals in early 2018. Used ledger Nano S a lot in 2017 to 2021. Now Im using Safepal a lot due to its versatility. and user friendliness.
Yah my seed phrases to all my wallets are all in safe places with multiple copies in secure and safe places. Security is my primary concern. 1. sending and receiving crypto, I double check the addresses I send them to. 2. NEVER trade crypto while intoxicated , or not sound of mind. 3. I always order direct from the source. never use 2nd or 3rd parties to buy from. NEVER. 4. I use a smartphone only dedicated to trading. 5. I daily check my wallet. any crypto I see that were sent to me from someone I dont know , that address is blocked. 6. NEVER connect my wallet to unknown sites, I always disconnect after I use Defi even on trusted apps or sites like Uniswap, 1inch etc. 7. I never click on links on my phone. or PC. that are unknown or sent to me from a unknown address or sender. NEVER. 8. and most important rule, NEVER give away your passwords or seed phrases. and also be of sound mind when creating a new wallet. and write seed phrases correctly and in order.
I have never lost a wallet or made a wrong transaction, Ive hard lots of phishing scams etc. thrown my way , but nope not fallen for any of them , and I regualry scan my phones with anti virus and have firewalls like Malwarebytes. and I never use my phones to surf questionable sites.
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well im not surprised that they had the resources to do it, since the Russians have been micro mobilizations a lot , while not doing a massive general mobilizaton, these micro mobilizatons are very much underhanded recruiting from state factory workers, prisons, foreign migrants workers, refugees, , Russian ethnic republics, even foreign recruitment from all over the world being promised high wages. (Cuba and Nepal have been mentioned in the news but I think that is only the tip of the ice berg). Also the Russians still have thousands of tanks and APCs in their stocks. Yah while the Russians still have a lot of resources, their logistics suck, along with their leadership coordination poor morale and training are still there, while their coordination and logistics has somewhat improved their Soviet style combat doctrine still remains the same. Yah while they have a lot of resources and manpower to throw at the Ukrainians , their logistical situation is still quite bad, since the Ukrainians are targetting their supply trucks and trains and logistic depots so while the Russians can do big offensives they cnat sustain them for long and they fall apart due to lack of fuel and ammo. Also the RUssian logistics is reliant on trains and the front lines in the east are far from rail heads and the Russians need to transport supplies from their rail heads via trucks and the Russians have a truck shortage since the Ukrainians are targetting them a lot(not to mention the fake Chinese truck tires on Russian trucks), the Russians have gotten so desperate that they are using civlian pick up trucks and cars to ferry supplies to their troops on the front line. Also the Russians are attackng on flat open ground sown with a lot of Ukrainian mines. with teh Ukrainians on high ground positions. Russian strategy seems to just try to drown the Ukrainians with tanks and APCs after the usual Russian massive rolling artillery barrage , the Russian tanks and APCs would run into mines get disabled then the Ukrainians would hit them with artillery and ATGMs. and the Ukrs would sow more mines with MLRS NATO mines. These factors are the main reasons why the Russian Avdiivka offensive is so slow and bloody. for the Russians. The motives for this offensive in my opinion is Garasimov trying to fend off allegations of his criminal incompetence by other Russian generals, Garasimov has been criticized for being criminally incompetent and constantly micromanaging and meddling into the work of other generals, he is also considered to be a politicking ahole who likes to bully his subordonates and likes to fire any Russian officer who crosses him or threatens his position real or perceived whether they are competent or not. So the Avdiivka offensive is his baby and he wants to prove to the Russian leadership and other Russian generals that he is competent. and has the balls and knowhow to successful lead and plan a campign. I would compare Garasimov to the suckhead Soviet generals Buddyonny and Pavlov. he is that bad. and Garasimov is still in power due to his close friendship with Shoigu and Putin.
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The Russians will pay very hard after this war, when the recession hits next year oil prices will crash hard. and when that happens, Russian economy is KAPUT. and when that happens it will be the worse timing. A Russian economy already badly hurt due to sanctions , Euro countries reducing their dependence on Russian energy significantly. along with worse sanctions, and the Russians may probably have gained significant territory in Ukraine but its a hollow victory. By that time the Russians probably lost like 100K men in Ukraine depressed economy and unrest among the Russian people. The recession will collapse the Russian economy, also Putin's cash reserves by next year will have depleted significantly. Collapsing Russian economy will very much critically hurt Russian military logistics in Ukraine. to the point the Ukrainians actually making significant gains on the battlefield. resuliting in the recapture of large portions of Ukr territory . All these come to a head, unrest massively goes up, riots, rebellions due to food basic goods shortages. PUtin gets purged either through a coup or rebellion. revolution. War ends messy for the Russians, new gov blames putin for the whole fiasco , PUtin is probably dead by this time. Calls for peace talks armistice cessation of war. Then in the peace talks Russians withdraw from all of Ukriane minus Crimea. most sanctions gets lifted. Russia gives back crimea a few years later for full sanctions lifted and economic aid from the west for its collapsing economy. Russia is so bankrupt, it cant even withdraw its troops from crimea who are not paid, are abandoned and leave on their own for Russia or apply for political refugee to the EU. many of these former Russian troops become bandits in the Ukr Russian border areas. Rioting and looting. which the Russian army and police have a difficult time stopping. THe Ukrainian army also has to fight them on their side of the border. Millions of Russians refugee out of Russia to the EU. and surrounding countries, Russian army is mainly demobilized and a skeleton of its former self due to the Russian gov not being able to pay for its soldiers. A very weak Russian army means it cant stop the unrest and rebellions going on across Russia. esp. in the Caucasus , and in the Far East. in the next ten years,after armistice in late 2023 Russia becomes a proxy battleground between USA and China, for its resources trying to influence the new republics born from Russia. who loses about 50 percent of its pre war territory to secession. Things stabilize in the 2030s for Russia who is leaner smaller, still a huge country but with a stable political and economic situation. and democratic and western allied. the other new former Russian republics are a mix of states who are aligned with various powers esp. in the far east and Siberia who are Chinese puppet states. the Caucasus Chechnya annexes a good portion of Russian caucasus and decalres itslef the Emirates of the Caucasus is very much supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Azerbaijan.
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a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive
Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps
Russian Order of battle:
2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X.
Ukrainian Order of battle:
13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X.
aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk.
Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster.
also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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I predict that the Russian proposed victory year end of 2026 will in fact be the Ukrainian victory year.
When Biden wins this year and the dems sweep the congress and senate, the USA will massively increase aid to Ukraine, 2025 and 2026 will be deemed the horrible years by the Russians.
I predict Ukraine wins this war when Russia goes into revolution civil war in 2027, 110 years after the last civil war in 1917.
The longer Russia is in this war with a leader who likes to fights to the end and double down all the time, the more the Russian military economy and political stability is destroyed. The more of the Russian budget and economy is devoted to war, more of the Russian civilian infrastructure which is already bad starts to break down, also Russian economy cannot handle costs of the war, for a prolonged period of time, I expect hyperinflation to hit Russia by late 2025 to 2026 as the national wealth fund runs out.
Also Russian stocks of cold tanks and APCs might run out by late 2025 to 2026. Heck the Russians might be forced to buy North Korean tanks and try to disguise them as Russian tanks to avoid humiliation hahah.
A combination of a depressed economy , Ukrainian major victories in the field, hyperinflation and rising prices of essential goods and hardships for the Russian civilians will result in unrest in Russia and in the Russian army in Ukraine. which leads to more Russian gov repression which leads to civil war revolution heck just like 1917.
The Ukraine war will lead to a civil war which will take years to conclude and results in millions of Russians dead and millions as refugees. and the Russian ruble will be toilet paper.
What is coming the Russians will wish the 90s was back and Putin was never born.
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well my hobbies since the 1980 in terms of gaming are board wargames and table top RPGs, and my faves are: Twilight 2000 , Recon, Traveller, World of darkness(Vampire, Werewolf , Mage etc.), Cyberpunk 2020, Shadowrun, Call of Cthulhu, Runequest , Stormbringer(later Elric), and of course D&D 3rd edition. ,
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so lets see how the Russians performed in 2024, lost 400K casualties taking 1 percent of Ukraine in one year, which in terms of land size is an area the size of Rhode Island NY, or Luxembourg. Overall in 3 years of war, the Russians took 20 percent of Ukraine or an area the size of Pennyslvania for 800K casualties. and still the Ukrainians are still fighting hard, hitting Russian oil refiniries and ammo dumps in mainland Russia itself, helped the Syrian rebels overthrow Assad, a major Russian ally. 5 months Russians took around 400 square KMs at Kursk, or 50 percent of what the Ukrainians took in 1-2 weeks. while suffering 40K casualties for an area the size of Denver Co. Despite the Russians and North koreans outnumbering the Ukrainians at Kursk 2 or 3 to 1 with heavy air and artillery support. Also Russians have to beg the North Koreans to send artillery ammo missles and volunteers., in fact as of now, 60 percent of Russian artillery ammo and 30 percent of Russian missles are NOrth Korean made. Its that bad.
If I was grading the Russians at school exams for the year 2024, I would give them a D. less than satisfactory performance. noting the RUssians have a massive advantage over the Ukrainians in terms of economy , manpower, and firepower, Russians could have done much better but due to poor Russian combat doctrine, leadership, corruption, poor tactics. yep the Russians are messing up the war. and I find it funny Russians still say they are fighting NATO not Ukraine hahhaha. Very amusing.
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in the what is CSA still exists timeline this would turn out. in the Great war, the CSA sends troops to help the Allies in Europe, USA takes advantage to invade the CSA, and British Canada, suffers a stalemate. Central powers win overall. WW2, Central powers still win, USA conquers the CSA. Post WW2.: Three superpowers, USA(incorporating CSA and British Canada), Germany(Id say later the AUstro Hungarian empire , Moldova and Wallachia becomes part of Germany), & Japan(with an empire incorporating all of South East Asia, China, Soviet Far East , Mongolia, Malaya, Indian states, Dutch East Indies all the way to Papua New Guinea , Samoa, The empire is composed of puppet client states who are controlled economically and politically with strong military prescense by the Japanense with a single currency the Yen. Australia and New Zealand , are American allies and garrisoned with AMerican troops. All are nuke powers. There is grave tension between the USA and Japan due to the massive Japanese military presence in Hawaii and the strong Amreican military presence in Australia and New Zealand along with Japanese attempts to influence Latin American nations and American support for insurgents in the Japanese empire. Germany maintains good relations with the USA and Japan. and often acts as referee.
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Many people think Ukrainian is losing , nope they dont see the bigger picture, Russia which has 10X the GDP, the # of tanks, artillery, combat planes , warships, firepower and 5X the manpower when compared to Ukraine only controls 20 percent of UKraine, the Russians originally controlled 40 percent of Ukraine but the Ukrainians took 50 percent of that back in late 2022. Managed to fight the Russians to a standstill , inflicted 400K casualties thousands of destroyed tanks and destroyed 25 percent of the Black sea fleet despite not having a navy. and now destroyed nearly 20 percent of Russia's oil and gas producing capacity with the Russians not able to stop the Ukrainians despite bragging to have the 2nd strongest army in the world. Heck lets not talk about land mass which Ukraine is much smaller than Russia.
Russia has really underperformed in thsi war and its economy while growing due to the Russian gov feeding money into the economy is only growing due to Moscow changing it to a war economy, good in the short term very very bad int he long term esp. if this war ends in a defeat.
Yep same thing happened to the Russian empire war economy for 3 years 1914-1917 then due to defeats on the battlefield, poverty and the Russian empire gov being aholes to its own people well resulted in the 1917 revolution which led to economic collapse and the very bloody Russian civil war 1917 to 1922. I forsee a Russian civil war occuring and then a economic collapse. possibly the fire is started by Russian security forces massacring Russian protesters.just like 1917
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I think its going to go on until 2025-2026, Putin wil hold until the results of the 2024 USA elections. if Biden wins, war ends in 2025 to 2026, since Russian economy cannot take another 4 years of war. and his oligarchs and gov officials will know when Biden wins the USA elections that Russia cannot win the war, and would want to end the war with less cost to the Russian economy and military. Im not surprised by this time, the Russian have been dealt with numerous major defeats, and Putin is really hated by Russian officers, next time there is a major coup it will most likely be supported by the Russian oligarchs and gov officials who will go after Putin , Shoigu, Garasimov first and his inner circle. I think the new Russian gov will want to reestablish good relations with the west and back to business before the war relations. This will mean Russia giving up all conquered territories in Ukraine, giving up all claims to Ukrainian territory , a formal peace treaty, and no contest to Ukraine joining NATO and the EU. and the prosecution of Russian war criminals. and some sort of repratoins, in return back to normal relations with the west and the EU, lifting of all economic sanctions on Russia, plus economic aid to Russia. Ukraine economy will boom post war with the reconstrution. Russia will have a period of disorder with teh 90s coming back in style. I can see some parts of Russia seceding like Chechnya Dagestan but most of Russia will be intact. but the Moscow gov. will be weak with the Russian army in shambles. as Russia focuses on economic development trying to save its economy and get out of depression rather than building up its military again. I think what will happen to Russia post war, is that Russian military and police will still be there but Russian corporatoins and PMCs will become more powerful and act as entities keeping Russia stable. I can see a weak oligarch controlled Moscow gov. with Russian corporations becoming the new lords of Russia, Russia will really become a corporate controlled state. with PMCs becoming the Russian military and police. I can see local entiies forming their own PMCs to take over local police law and order duties. and the Russian oligarchs will make sure no one like PUtin ever becomes Czar of Russia again. and they will make sure the Russian pres. and gov is fully oligarch controlled. SO what does this mean for the Russian people, back to the 90s again, with high inflation rates, lack of law and order. high crime rates. In short Russian corporations back by their PMCs will become countries unto themselves, with the Russian gov not able to control them.
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yah that is why I think the Russians are suffering a lot more dead than the Ukrainians, due to their sucky battlefield medical system where officers only get evaced out of the battlefiled, shortages in first aid kits , an overloaded Russian civlian medical system and due to the Russian military leadership and gov not caring about their own troops. what could have been treatable battlefield wounds, are often fatal to Russian soldiers. Also the sanitation at Russian trenches is horrible, and there is a mouse epidemic that is spreading among the Russians, so the risk of fatal infected wounds or just sickeness is much highter. that is why the Ukrainians are able to recover their casualties a bit more than the Russians who just mobilize more men and send them to the front rather than recovering casualties, heck the Russians even force their casualties to stay and fight at the front. So yah according to western estimates Russian casualties run from 300K to 500K but out of that I think there is a 50 percent death rate due to poor medical and other factors I described above, so Russian dead I can picture from 150K to 250K dead, meanwhile the Ukrainians 300K casuatlies of that 30K to 60K dead. I think the Russians can sustain this loss rate for the next few years but it will impact their economy and society greatly as the war goes on, and the hardest impact will be post war whether the Putin regime survives or not.
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yah 100 KM in three years and looking at the current Donbass casualty rates, about 10,000 Russian casualties per KM, so the Russians are prepared. to pay 1 million casualties to take the whole of donbass hahahaah, very amusing, while the stupid Russian leaders are wiling to pay this, the Russian people nope, esp. in the non Russian poor ethnic areas of the Russian fed where the most of the casualties come from, and these areas are historically rebellious, prepare to see secession and unrest in those areas. and mass refusals to go to the front. Heck Putin will be so desperate since no one in those areas wnats to go to his early grave taht he will do forced mobilizations from the Russian areas of MOscow, St. petersburg etc.
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its very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends.
Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up.
So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more.
I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war.
Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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and while true the Ukrs troops many are straight out of boot camp, they are bit better motivated than the Russians they are fighting who are simliar in training quality. yah the better motivated Ukrs are fighting behind strong fortifications and on the high ground, the Russians have to advance on flat open terrain, that is why yes the Russians are gaining ground at massive cost and its taking them this long. and from what I hear, the Russians are not doing their human wave attacks at night but in the daylight since their conscripts lack night vision gear, however the Spetsnaz , wagner etc. more elite troops who do have night vision gear are carrying out recon in force to find weak spots in the Ukrs lines at night. The Ukrs forces have night vision gear. which counter these assholes. And even if the Russians take bakhmut , the Russians will have lost massive amounts of men, but not surprised thye are not able to use this as an advantage, to break out into behind UKr lines. since the Ukrs probably have fortified defense lines which they can retreat back, plus the Russians may not have enough troops to exploit the holes they made in Ukr lines. due again to logistical problems, yah its excellent the Russians may have thousands of men in the battle but if your logistical system sucks and cant suppy your troops then those troops are a massive burden, cant do their job properly.
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Yes Russia plans to take as much of the Donbass as possible then hunker down.
Russian leadership is not that stupid, they know what a massive US aid to Ukraine like this will affect the battlefield from past experience.
So hit the Ukrainians as hard as they can while they are weak, then hunker down , if Trump wins, I can see a bigger offensive in 2025, If Biden wins, then I see the Russians doing defense in the face of increased US Allied aid to Ukraine in 2025 to 2026. and possible to 2027 to 2028 and hopefully the next pres. in 2028 after Biden is Trump or someone like him.
Also the Russians are in a time limit. their economy will not be able to support the war by late 2025 into 2026 due to increased sanctions, Russian national wealth fund running out, increased costs of the war, Ukrainian attack on Russian infrastructure, along with a tank and APC shortage due to Russian cold war stocks of weapons running out by late 2025 into 2026 which leads to possible Ukrainian major victories and the Russian increasingly finding it difficult to fight the war. Also as more of the Russian budget and economy gets devoted to the war, which leads to a more depressed economy widespread failing Russian infrastructure which leads to massive amounts of Russian civilian deaths due to failure of dams , collapse of bridges and esp. failure of Russian power plants leading to extended days long black outs during winter which can be deadly when in the extreme Russian winter weather. Also hyperinflation and rising food costs causes food stuffs to be expensive leading to widespread hunger in Russian poor areas. which are target of Russian mobilization efforts.
As the war drags on , Russians even with increased pay offers for volunteers, eventually this will not be enough since the Russians will not be desperate enough to go to Ukraine where a high chance of being a one way ticket to the afterlife. and widespread corruption in the Russian army means many dont get paid,. So the Russians will probably have to force mobilize to keep the war running,
This will all lead to widespread unrest, probable rebellion vs. forced mobilization and when the Ukrainians win major victories, grumblings in the Russian army of mutiny and rebellion.. This also leads the Russian gov to clamp down even more on dissent, martial law. etc. and this leads to my anger in the Russian populace and enlisted men. Just needs a spark to start a civil war.
Ukrainians are more susceptible to the vicissitudes of foreign support , depending on who are in power in the USA most importantly , then Germany , UK , France in that order. Also the Ukrainians have to do more mobilizations to get their manpower up.
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Begging to USA is much beter than begging to North Korea, imagine Russia , the supposedly 2nd strongest military in teh world who likes to brag that its the greatest all the time, begging to a pariah weirdo state like North korea. HOW EMBARASSING RUSSIA. Before the war Russia had ten times the military and economic power compared to Ukraine, now Russia is struggling to hold on to 20 percent of Ukraine that it has conquered, 95 percent of the current standing Russian army is deployed in Ukraine and its finding it hard to defeat the Ukrainians, Russia has become the 2nd strongest army in Ukraine. that is really embarasssing, Hey Russians I suggest you guys depose Putin now and withdraw from Urkaine and stop the war since the longer this war goes, the worst it will be after the war, after the war is over, Russians will regret not stopping the war early. Russia will experience something like the 90s for several decades. Probably the 90s on steroids.
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well I predict the victory of Joe Biden in 2024 and the dems sweeping congress and senate and the purging of the rep party of maga elements and the destruction of the Maga faction will cause massive shockwaves in the halls of power in the Kremlin and Beijing. The Russian and Chinese elites will say our ploy vs. the west is kaput so we will go back to Pre war status quo which means , OK we Russians and Chinese sell to our best customers the west more or less good relations and behave. So both the Russians and Chinese elites purge thier respective dictators namely Putin and Xinping and return control of Russia and China to their elites and they will probably make sure no one like Putin or Xinping ever comes to power again.
So I think after Biden wins in 2024 and wins big by sweeping the house and senate, in 2025, Russian and Chinese elites Purge Putin and Xinping and their people. both leaders either suffer deaths of natural causes or with Xinping imprisonment resignation. A few months later , Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine, tensions ease considerably in the South China sea. and with Taiwan. as Chinese military forces are withdrawn from to Chinese bases. Almost a back to business as usual status quo environment occurs. The new Russian and Chinese leaders blame Putin and Xinping for the Ukraine war and tensions with Taiwan.
The new Russian and Chinese leaders are controlled by their own elites who will not let another Putin or Xinping come to power. Putin and Xinping do not get another term of office.
To speculate as to what happens next. The west goes back to buying cheapo Russian gas and oil, the west starts to uplift the economy of Vietnam and China to serve as a foil and alternative to China. China and Russia still get support and trade in investments from the west but not as much compared to before the Ukraine war and the third term start of Xinping. The west do not want Russia and China to go into economic depression as it would trigger unacceptable instabilities in those countries but want stable Chinese and Russian govs. but not rich enough for them to develop their militaries and to get the rise of dictatorial elements. Ukraine gets all of its pre 2014 land back including Crimea, gets trillions of USD of investments from the west and economy booms also Ukraine gets accepted in EU and NATO. Belarus and Georgia throw off their pro Russian govs and later in a decade Belarus and Georgia get accepted in the EU and NATO, Armenia gets accepted into the EU. and becomes a NATO protectorate. Russia goes into economic political chaos. but the west makes sure the new western leaning Russian gov is stable but the new Rusian gov has to contend with a plethora of rival nationalist and secessionist and criminal factions with their own armed militias. who are financed and supported by China and Turkey/Saudi Arabia. Russia becomes a new great game between USA, Turkey/Saudi Arabia and China. Iran purges its pro Putin leaders and gets a new pro west leadership, not surprised if they destroy their nuke program. North korea is hit with even bigger massive sanctions possible military conflict or confrontation with North Korea now bereft of Chinese support, as the west want North Korean blood. Im not surprised if Kim JOng Un and his sister suddently dies of natural causes replaced by his brother. and North Korea begins reapproachment with teh west. China wants good relations with the west and is willing to sacrifice the North korean leadership to do it.
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You can tell that Russia is losing this war and losing desperate...how???:
1. Russian propogandists are always threatening to nuke the west for this and that an they have red lines that will mean war with NATO, and yah NATO crossed those red lines and no war happened, this means Putin is scared of the west.
2. Russians may have gained on a tactical level dozens of Kilometers of land in the Donbass recently yep , they crow about capturing a town or village here and there, or hey how about that slag trash dump area near Bakhmut or Avdiivka. but it costs the Russians tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of destroyed vehicles doing it. and the Ukrainians still retreat in good order to new lines of defense. suffering a lot less than the Russians. but on a strategic level the map has not really changed, the gain is infinitesimal. The Russians dont have the logistics the create a breakthrouh in Ukrainian lines and exploit it to cause the Ukrainians to collapse wholesale. The Ukrainians did it to the Russians in late 2022 in the Kharkov counteroffensive. where the Ukrainians caused a breakthrough in Russian lines near Kharkov and expoited it and collapsed the Russian lines, gaining thousands of Kilometers of recaptured Ukrainian territory , a whole Russian army collapsed(2nd GTD, 2nd GMRD and 11th army corps) which cultiminated at the recapture of Izyum Sept 17 2022 and the Ukrainians captured 450 Russians tanks and APCs in what Igor Girkin called the largest tank losses since the Battle of Kursk 1943, many Russian ran away stealing bicycles and cars and running back to Russia. The Russians have not been able to do the same to the Ukrainians despite doing far more attacks with larger amounts of men and tanks.
3, Russians are recruitjng thousands of convicts and foreign volunteers from third world countries. You only do this when you are desperate for manpower.
4. Russians are buying ammo and missles from North Korea, for Russia one of the largest weapons manufacturers in the world, this is humiliating and you only do this again when you are desperate.
5. Russians fielding tanks and miltary equipment from WW2 and the 50s and 60s.
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well my take on it is that a Allied(mainly USA and USSR but with small contributions from the British and French) invade and conquer the Japanese home islands by like 1947. The Soviets would have conquered all of the Sakhalin, Kuriles and Hokkaido islands while the USA would take all of Honshu, Kyushu and Shikoku. Not surprised the campaign would have been extremely brutal for all sides as the Japanese would fight to the death and both sides would be using chemical weapons, and the US would be using multiple atomic weapons. The Soviets would have deported all the surviving Japanese civilians in their conquered areas as they did in OTL to the USA zone of control. and repopulate these areas with Russians, in fact Hokkaido main northern Japanese island was sparsely populated at the time of invasion of its population would have been drastically reduced. The USA would have been responsible for literally all the rebuilding of its controlled Japanese territories and would have executed a bit more Japanese war criminals than in OTL. Since many Japanese gov officials were probably killed during the invasion or executed later, the post war Japanese gov would have made up mostly of USA and Soviet military and civlian personel. The Soviets annex its conquered Japanese areas in the USSR . the USA would designate its occupied areas of Japan as administered territories which is a nice term for colony, essentially USA controlled areas of Japan becomes a USA colony. and would not be given independence due to the hundreds of thousands of American casualties just taking Japan. I can see the USA immigrating hundreds of thousands of Americans from the mainland to Japan. as Japan rebuilds. and settling down so Japan by the 70s has a sizable American minority. the Japanese population post war is reduced from its pre war levels by around 50 percent noting millions of Japanese died during the conquest of Japan 1945 to 1948, and probably a million or so more in the brutal pacification campaigns of the late 40s and 50s. (note Emperor dies during the invasion of Japan). USA occupied Japan gets completely Americanized. so by 2000 Japan(Okinawa, Kyushu Honshu and Shikoku) becomes the 51st state of the USA. where English is the main language spoken followed by Japanese. Japan is one of the richest states in the USA and rivals the GDP of the states of Texas and California.
Meanwhile the invasion of Japan by the Allies has a major effect on the rest of Asia, KMT and CCP start fighitng each other in a major way starting 1946 , even with the Japanese still controlling eastern China. without USA aid(as the USA is focused on the invasion and conquest of Japan), the CCP defeats the KMT by 1949. as in OTL what replaces USA aid however is the hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops in Eastern China and Formosa whose Japanese military govs surrender to the Allies in 1947 however many Japanese troops join the KMT to fight the CCP. Chiang and the KMT remnants flee to Formosa now being called Taiwan. All of Korea is overrun by the Soviets by 1946. and the new Korean country is headed by Soviet puppet Kim Il Sung.
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the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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well its true the Russian economy is kaput and with high inflation and the Russian rainy day fund getting low, however I highly suspect they are borrowing lots of money from the Chinese , Indians , Saudis, UAE, under the table at very high interest , along with oil sales which btw, the Russians are just barely making a profit which is propping up the economy therefore prolonging the war. Short term this is great, Russia has the money to fund the war, buy North Korean artillery ammo(which now constitute 50 to 60 percent of Russia artillery ammo stocks) and soldiers and missles and Iranian drones, missles and artillery ammo(10 percent of the Russian artillery ammo stocks) all at inflated prices paid for in a mix of non Russian ruble currency, resources and weapons tech. Short term gain, Putin gets to continue his war as his life, regime and legacy literally depend on winning this war so Putin is desperate and to the wall to do anything including begging the North koreans to intervene and funding Donald Trump's presidential campaign and the western far right and far left political parties to the tune of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, he needs the war to continue since as the war stands, Russia is not winning this war, in fact, in the current offensive, Russia since Jan 1 2024, in nearly 10 months of all out offensives, Russia has taken 0.25 percent of Ukrainian territory(Russia currently holds around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory), suffered 320K casualties 10K destroyed tanks, IFVs and APCs, at the battle of Vulhedar alone it took the Russians 2 years, 50K casualties and 1k destroyed tanks APCs and IFVs just to take a town(with a pre war population of 15K) and have essentially captured a pile of rubble, ruins. The Russians have been buying lots of North Korean artillery ammo missles and now buying North Korean mercenarie(at 2K USD per soldier per month) s to fight in Ukraine since regular Russians despite offers of 4K USD per month to fight in Ukraine are refusing to fight. also Ukraine has been drone bombing Russian oil refiniries and ammo depots a lot with Russian air defenses barely able to stop them, also the Ukrainians actually invaded Russia and took an area the size of Los Angeles in a week. and for nearly 5 months now, the Russians have been throwing men and tanks just trying to kick the Ukrainians out but the Ukrainians are still holding a large chunk of Russian territory. Yep the Russians are not winning this war and with a looming Kamala harris win at the USA presidential elections, well , the RUssian economy cannot take another 4 years of war at this rate.
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I find it very funny that when Orban was reelected back in APril 2022, during his main speech Orban gave a derisive laugh on the chances of Ukraine surviving the Russian invasion, Orban made speeches that Ukraine wont survive the year and the EU was wasting money on Ukraine, now 2.5 years later, the Russians after 700K casualties and tens of thousansds of Kaput tanks and APCs and the war a bloody stalemate and the Russians only controlling 20 percent of Ukraine and Ukraine controlling Russian territory the size of Los Angeles, Orban is crying out we need to stop the war to end the bloodshed, its not anymore Ukraine will lose but Orban is probably afraid Russia would lose, hahhaahah. Orban knows he backed the wrong horse and is desperately trying to end the war with terms favourable to Russia and really hoping Trump wins NOv 2024, He is quite afraid not only of Russian funding drying up if the Russians lose the war, but the EU coming for him next. After the war is over, it wil not end well for not only Putin , but he will bring down his moron allies in the EU like Orban, Fico, hitler wannabe kickl. and heck also bring down Putin puppets like Lukoshenko , & Kobakhidze. wonder why some smarter Euro far right figures like Le Pen and Wilders are much silent distancing themselves from Putin, since they know due to the failure of the Ukraine invasion Putin's days are numbered and they dont want to get removed and possibly go to prison after the Ukraine war is over and EU focuses on cleaning up its pro Russian politicos.
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also depends on what happens in the EU. without USA aid and USA dallying on its NATO membership and worrying statements from Trump and EU fears of Russian aggression on NATO members, I think the rest of NATO will break from the USA. and this time with urgency rearming and covering up the USA aid to Ukraine, USA stops sending aid to Ukraine, the rest of EU/NATO steps up dramatically. Yes USA may withdraw from NATO lifts all the sanctions on Russia, but the EU NATO and allies do not comply with the USA and breaks from it. and steps up aid to Ukraine. This time, there is a sense of urgency and then you dont have delayed aid anymore from NATO members since the USA is blocking them politically, thsi time the pro Ukraine NATO members do not listen to the USA then massively ups the aid to Ukraine. Russia threatens war but its army is so much stuck in Ukraine cant even do much , but do sabre rattling, France UK, send troops to Ukraine. and lift all the restrictions on their weapons use on Russian soil. France and UK probably threaten the Russians too of war if nukes are used. the French and UK may have much smaller stockpiles than the Russians but they will mostly work, the Russian nukes are very much in question , my estimate 75 percent of it will not work.
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I think post war after all the destruciton this is actually the perfect opportunity to remake Ukraine, to remake the gov. instiutions of ukraine from the ground up, kick out oligarch influence, kick out the old corrupt Ukr politicos move away from Russian Soviet influene and move a lot closer to the west to the EU and USA. basically after the war Ukraine is year zero, zelensky can remake it in any way he wants, with many billions of dollars of reconstruciton money from the USA and EU. Russia on the other hand post war will eat itself, wihtout Putin at the helm and competing politicos trying to gain power not one of them capable fighting for power along with a bankrupt economically collapsed Russia where law and order has collapsed. where the army has mostly disbanded due to not being paid and Russian republics are declaring independence encouraged by China, Turkey, Saudi, Iran. etc. While ukraine is a lot more devastated from war than Russia, Ukraine has law and order and reconstructuon Russia will go thru civil war.
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Ive seen this Chinese bluster before, the Chinese like to bluster and beat its chest and threaten war but nothing happens, the CCP is not stupid like putin, Xinping is not Putin and he has to answer to his party not the other way around. and the CCP is not suicidal once China attacks the USA, or Taiwan, CHina is kaput, economic collapse destroyed navy , air force, blockades, total sanctions, destruction of Chinese shipping. = Chinese civil war.
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Russia wants at least 500K more suckers to be fertilizer in Ukraine since obviously he is running out of recruits and the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and Putin is not winning the war. So lets see, the Russians probably ran out of convict recruits(notice the Russians are closing a good number of prisons lately ), also the Russians are not stupid and despite being offered at least 2K USD per month , no Russian wants to be fertilizer in Ukraine. , also the sucker third world foreign recruits from Nepal, India, Cuba, Africa, China etc. are not enough(approx 50K of them have been recruited since late 2022 and 20K have already died. ). and the USA and EU are pressuring third world countries not allow volunteers to go to Russia. Also the word is out, more likely you wont enjoy the 2K USD the Russians are offering and your family wont get paid after you are dead. So faced with this dillema, Putin now wants to force Russian citizens to fight in Ukraine. This will not end well for Putin. and Russia.
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My view is , the war will end by late 2023 and even extend into early 2024. From what I hear the Russian strategy is to force the Europeans to stop supporting Ukraine by waiting until winter then turning off the energy taps to the Europeans and damange the European economy through I think will be some of the worst winters in history in Europe. I think while this will cause a lot of damage to the EU economy NATO with some dissent will stick behind Ukraine. The Europeans offended will probably mostly stop buying energy from Russia. and the RUssian strategy will backfire and the Russians will lose a major customer from the Europeans. and the Russian economy will suffer badly. So failing this ploy , the only strategy to fall back on is escalation. By mid 2023, the Ukrainians are now doing major offensive operations vs. the Russians, NATO miltary aid and training are finally paying off big time, , the RUssian army is decrepit, and increasingly more brittle, yes they still have a lot of men in Ukraine and the Russians still have strong manpower reserves but the RUssian economy is collapsing, there are shortages, unrest , the weapons they are deploying on the front are increasingly getting vintage. also the crash in oil prices have really affected teh economy , the Russians only hold ten percent of Ukraine as a rejuventated Ukrainian army is increasingly defeating the Russians on the battlefield. while the Russians are still able to field lots of men and equipment, these Russian soldiers have very low morale and poorly trianed, also Russian leadership is also still poor. now using incrasingly older military equipment. and in contrast the Ukrainians mainly have high morale , very motivated, well trained and well experienced armed with high quality advanced NATO weapons with good leadership and tactics. So I think Putin in order to avert a military disaster and total defeat in Ukraine , uses a number of low yield tactical nuke weapons in Ukraine to force a ceasefire scare NATO leadership and force the Ukrainians to accept Russian peace terms. Ceasefire happens and tensions between NATO and Russia go to near war levels. and NATO threatens the Russians any more use of nukes and chemical weapons will result in NATO intervention in Ukraine and war with RUssia. total sanctions by USA EU and their allies vs. Russia and threats vs. Chiina India to include sanctions on them if they dont sanction Russia. Russian economy collapses even more. Russia is economically isolated. peace talks occur while this is happening the ceasefire is broken a several times mostly by the Russians. who do offensives vs. the Ukrainians but these offensives are defeated. with heavy losses of the Russians, however Ukraine is heavilly pressured not to do offensives vs. the Russians, just counteroffensive but dont retake more Russian territory. NATO meanwhile supplies Ukraine with even more weapons like front line warplanes even maybe NATO tanks. Peace talks extend into 2024 all the while the Russian economy is collapsing and there are more shortages unrest Putin gets more desperate and plans to break the stalemate with the use of nukes and planning war with NATO. Before Putin can enact the pan, Putin dies of "natural causes" or removed from power through other means , moderates take over. peace talks continue but with a lot less tensions. Then Russia announces complete withdrawal from Ukraine except for Crimea. The Russian republics of Donetsk and LUhansk are abandoned, and are conquered swiftly by the Ukr army. Crimea is not returned. in exchange, most sanctions are withdrawn. HOwever the war has left a bad taste on the mouth of Europeans and a state of war still exists between Ukr and Russia viewing that Ukraine still does not recognize the Crimea as Russian territory. The Europeans are sitl not buying Russian energy and do not trust the Moscow gov. even though run by moderates who were former close putin associates though not his inner circle. While the Russia is not anymore economically isolated most foreign investment do not come back to Russia and low oil prices are really impacting Russia's ability to economically recover. in fact , Russia's economy has really been damaged by 2 years of some of the worst sanctions ever imposed on a country. Also the many thousands of Russian troops going back to Ukraine have not been paid going back to unemployment weimar style inflation and discrimination due to them being blamed for losing the war. also a collapsed economy means massive cuts to army budget as Russia tries to economically survive. This results in high unrest , very high crime rates and Russia undergoes a decade or two or political , social and economic chaos. probably going to civil war levels. Russia probably gets desperate and gives back Crimea to Ukraine in exchange for massive economic aid and the removal of the rest of hte sanctions. I can see Russia losing 50 percent of its territory to secession. esp. in the Caucasus central asia, Siberia and Far East.
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Im not surpirsed Russian casualties is actually higher than what is reported on both sides, why??? not only due to poor leadership, top down but also most importantly Russia's very poor battlefield medical system , Ukr soldiers are evacuated from the battlefield and flown to military hospitals in NATO countries, they get top notch NATO western medical services. Russians only officers are flown, the enlisted man, well he is on his own, Russian army has medicine bandage shortages, so if you get shot injured by shrapnel in a battle more likely you will be dead from infection. unless you are an officer where you get flown out fast. Oh and if the Russians becomes POWs to the Ukrs, the Ukrs actually treat the Russian wounded much better than their own side would. Its that stupid in the Russian army, Im not surprised if the Russian casualties are already 100K .
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Allan Lichtman is DA MAN...the most accurate election predictor since I started following him in 1988. Yep so far if you look at the keys. 2 keys are definitely false.(Key #1 Reps control the house since the last midterms . Key #12: Biden is not a charismatic pres. .)
and the rest are currently true. (#2. no serious contest to Biden's position in the dem party though lately after the first debate you might have stronger contenders but looking at the DNC line up vs. Biden they look all uncharismatic nowhere near the backing of Biden), #3 Biden is the sitting pres. and still running for a 2nd term. 4. There is no significant 3rd party to challenge biden in fact RFK threatens Trump more than biden. 5. strong economy no recession all time high stock markets. 6. Strong long term economy, yep massive improvement from the last covid crash of 2020. 7. Yes Biden has made several major policy changes during his term like his Covid decrees etc. 8. no unrest, the pro palestine unrest is bullshit, did not affect the USA much, irritating but the Trumpers might cause problems.like BLM did in 2020. 9. No scandal, hunter biden went to jail , he has been forgotten. 10. No foreign military failure, both the Ukraine and Gaza wars while tense have been managed well and not escalated. 11. Bidens decision to aid the Ukrainians massively stopped the Russians from conquering Ukraine, I consider that a major foreign policy success and currently Russia is stuck in a costly unwinnable war in Ukraine and getting desperate. 13. Trump is not charismatic , he is trying to be like fist pumping after his attempted assasination trying to emulate Reagan well this did not garner him more support in fact it just galvanized his supporters.
the keys I consider shakey are keys #2, 3 due to the aftermath of the first debate, and key #8 for possible 2020 style riots by the Trumpists after their lord and saviour Trump got assasianted. However I do think all that will pass with Biden getting nominated with strong backing during the DNC in the next month. Also Biden has to come back strong in the 2nd debate. Also the attempted Trump assasination has to be treated reallyi carefully by BIden to avoid the trumpists going crazy and doing shit. but so far Biden has been very conciliatory to Trump. acted like a true gentleman
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the Russian army is usually the one using Cluster munitions, they used it vs. the Afghans, Chechens, Georgians. Syrians and Ukrainians, however the Russians have never been on the receiving end of cluster bombs until July 2023, and it shows, they ran in panic, USA please send more GPS guided cluster bombs to Ukraine, USA made cluster bombs are the best in the world just ask the Vietnamese, Iraqis, Lebanese, Serbians, and Afghans for proof of quality.
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yah cause the civil war which is not a civil war but a Russian invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 when Russia took crimea and fought a under the table green men war in the Donbass in 2015. Yah wow Cory, wow your argument that Russian are abused in ukraine like how a president making some bad taste humor , hey Russians are not being genocided in Ukraine by Ukrainians , nor as they lsoing their jobs. before the war, and the Russian response of bombing the living shit out of Ukraine, killing thousands of civilians invading the country , doing war criimes rape looting mass murder, da fuck Cory bet you are getting your chain pulled by the Russian money you are getting, Russians invaded Ukraine for stupid denazification reasons, done, who is the villain here Russians. Yah we have free speech in the west for you to say whatever you wnat, me, Im saying whatever I want, But logic here you suck,
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you can tell the Russians are getting desperate in the manpower situation, no one in their right mind in Russia wants to join the war in Ukraine, since its a one way ticket to teh grave a suicide run where mostly likely you will be killed by well motivated and trained Ukrainians, abused by your stupid corrupt Russian officers, abused by your fellow soldiers, not paid at all or correctly, suffer from supply shortages. And the training you will get, probably 1-2 weeks before they throw you at the Ukr front line. Only the desperate like the homeless, convicts or the fanatic nationalists will join, they even recruit the disabled. Yah the Russian public may approve but they will not volunteer to fight. in fact, Putin cant mobilize his population , in the short term, you will have hundreds of thousands of ready very unwilling recruits who can be thrown at the Ukrainains but they wont last long int he battlefield. and many casualties will have a strong impact on Russian society as it will spark a massive unrest that will result in Putin and his cronies getting removed, Putin will most probably use a WMD first before mobilizing his population. Also besides manpower he has a equipment shortage as well, as well as teh Russian economy is gradually degrading.
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Why are the Russians still doing human wave attacks????. well here is my take on it. Russian army officers for the regular army are promoted for being ass kissers and have influence rather than ability and experience. if you have great ability and experience you are considered a threat and do not advance in rank. and forced to quit. So these officers are only good stealing and ass kissing, but zip on tactics. These aholes view the regular troops as cannon fodder, expendable. So hence that is why they are clumsy and stupid in tactics, like rushing in infantry and tank human wave style with poor coordination straight out of WW1. Also Russian military tradition...human lives are cheap been like that for a long time. basically using bodies to wear out the enemy. unchanged since WW2. They dont care about social and political repercussions, the last time they did it in WW2, they suffered to political dissent from the Russian populace. Also the war is being micromanaged from the Kremlin, right down to the XX and X level. its that bad. and the head aholes putin and his buddies know zip about military tactics except for drowning the enemy in bodies and tanks. and plastering them with artillery. Its said that in the Ukr war, 60 percent of Russian casualties come from friendly fire due to poor coordination between the ground troops, their artilery and air support. Russian air support like the artillery is mainly pray and spray. Russian artillery and air support mostly dont use precision weapons, so its pray and spray time, like Russian artillery loves to do massed just fire with some aiming and do area bombardment just like WW2. eastern front. and air support, similiar just fire en masse form a good distance and hope you hit the enemy. Mind you this is not the entirety of the Russian army. just say 75 percent of it. The elite units, the Wagner , VDV, Spetsnaz, Chechens Marines, would probably have a different command from the regular army though they probably rely on the regular army for air and artillery support , higher quality troops and officers. The wagner and Chechens have their own growing air and artillery arms. since they cant rely on the regular army to do their job properly. This results in a poorly coordinated and fractured Russian army which is competent when defending Russia but bad when invading other countries esp. one with a substantially sized army.
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Yep the longer the Russians are in this war the more the Russians retool their economy to a war footing. the more Russia will suffer after the war is over win or lose. So imagine, the Russians win or lose this war left with a dangerously militarized economy. In order to repair and retool a war economy to a civlian one post war you need massive infusions of money. and with Russia post war under strong sanctions from teh west, no western investments coming in, bankrupt, in a lot of debt with the Chinese and Indians, and in the backdrop with a possible low worldwide oil prices, Russian economic recovery post war will be really slow. and difficult. The Russians have lost their best customers the Europeans and replaced by Chinese and Indian customers who want big discounts from Russian products. to the point the Russian at best would be making little profit, or worse selling at a loss. Russia may have "won" the Ukraine war(when I say won, got to keep like 20 percent of Ukraine. during the armistice). but in the process, destroyed its own economy and made Russia a economic puppet of the Chinese and Indians. who will probably call in that debt to buy Russian corporations at bargain basement prices. and probably Russia would undergo social chaos as inflation and the price of good sky rocket and the Russian gov is essentially bankrupt. and undergoes a Venezuela type economic problem. also not surprised in the event of said Russian "victory" , Russian troops in Ukraine will not be sent home and will stay in Ukraine to pacify and garrison the newly acquired Ukrainian territories, they probably wont be paid, this will illicit, possible mutinies , rebellions. In short while teh Russians would "win" , it would be a very pyrrhic and bitter victory, and social chaos will hit the Russians hard, esp. when Putin dies. I posit that it would be best for the Russians to lose the war than actually "win" it, since in losing the war, the Russian economy will hit rock bottom fast, but will recover with normalized relations with teh west and lifting of all sanctoins, in winning, the Russians face a longer destruction of their economy and when the social chaos hits it will be worse than if they lost the war.
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bet you when the Ukrs recapture Bakhmut, Prigozhin will come out and start another coup hahahaha. this time we get to see the battle of Moscow 2.0 hahahha. you know the Russian army is quite amusing, back in Feb 2022, the Russian army was much superior to the ukrainian army in terms of firepower, number of tanks and soldiers, and Ukrainian army was predicted to collapse in 3 days, now 1.5 years later, the Ukrainians recaptured 50 percent of what they lost, poised to recapture more. doing successful offensives, and launching drone attacks on Moscow hahahaah, very amusing. and back at the start of the war, the Russians launched a surprise attack , hahaha,
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Russian shit gov wants to save as much money as they can which means reneging on contracts, and you only get paid after your contract is over. If you die, well sorry , we will not pay your relatives. and even if you survive and the Russian gov made it worse by saying all contracts are now indefinite, like no rotations, no vacation time, you are at the front indefinitely , that means for ALL: CONTRACTS. esp. for conscripts, foreign dumbo sucker volunteers from countries such as Nepal, Cuba, Syria, Central African republics etc. , central asian migrant workers caught working illegally in Russia, convicts, mobiks, etc. et.c etc. The only ones probably who are excluded are Russian stupido officers, and Russian soldiers who have connections. otherwise you stay at the front until the war ends. and even if you die, they wont retrieve your body and probably even cremate you at the front or bury you at the front, like those rotting Russian deados at the fields of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, their bodies have been rotting there since Oct 2022. and accumulating , many are now fertilizer for the fields of Eastern Ukraine. , the ahole Russian gov think its too expensive to retrieve them since they are saving money to extend the economic viability of hte war, and they can get more suckers in Russia and abroad to fight in their war.
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Manpower... true the Russians have the advantage in manpower 10-1 if you draw on the entire Russian popualtion as compared to the Ukrs. however the Ukrs have the home field advantage, shorter supply lines , a lot better management of logsitics, and the Ukrs mobilized at the start of hte war while teh Russians well took them 8 months into the war to mobilize. Also look at logistics, Russian logistics as it is in Ukraine cannot really handle hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, whenenver they throw in masses of troops, these units fall apart in the face of Ukrs offensives. why?, yah you thrown in thousands of men vehicles into the fight, however if your logistical system cannot support it, the army will suffer from bad supply issues and shortagees, in essentials like ammo and fuel, and when that happens and your enemy goes ont he offensive you get things like the Russian disasters at Kiev and Kharkov. where you get lots of abandoned Russian vehicles and Russian troops running away even leaving their weapons, also this leads in to soldier morale training quality. Ukrainians, well motivated high morale, Russians, apatheitc, poorly motivated, poor morale. Training: Similiar with the Ukrs having better overall. Leadership, Ukrs have a better overall leadership overall. Equipment. Ukrs troops are generally better equippped than their Russian counterparts due to massive aid from NATO countries and and their allies, esp. the USA. also look at night vision gear, personal drones, outiside Russian elite units(Spetsnaz, core wagner, VDV) Russian troops hafe a severe shortage of these. Also tactics used. these days Russians like to do WW1 style human wave attacks. supported by massed area blanket artillery fire and air support who mostly does pray and spray attacks from a distance since they are terrified of Ukrs SAMs. Ukrs like to do maneuver warfre, hit and run attacks, ambushes. and not do heady on costly ww1 style attacks. Ukrs like to target Russian logistics with missles and artillery as well as command centers cut off the head first before attracks.
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I think the most pirvotal event in the war is the USA presidental elections of 2024. Putin is counting on anti Ukrainian elements of the US rep party to win the US elections. and I expect Putin to escalate this war in 2024 so that he tries to influence US voters and try to scare them to elect a Pro Peace USA pres. The escalation will include the use of Chemical weapons on the battlefield, moving Russian nukes around and doing more nuclear threat rhetorics and nuke tests. This might result in war jitters and possibly crash the US stock markets hard, which results in a recession in 2024. and that is the worse thing that can happen in a US elections cycle having a US economic recession happen during the year of US presidential elections. Putin will do anything to influence the outcome of the US elections. If a Pro Ukraine US pres. wins 2024, Putin will get even more desperate even with Chinese military support and probably order the use of nukes in 2025 to end the war in his favour, and I think that will be Putin's downfall. I think his own people will not only refuse the order but also isolate him from power and decision making. maybe even kill him. I think peace will come in 2025. with a total withdrawal from Ukraine by Russian forces, putting all the blame on Putin. and asking the west for financial aid and support to stave off Russian economic collapse as Russia slides into political and economic chaos. I think in the aftermath after this war is over. will be massive. the geopolitical face of the world will be signficantly affected similiar to the end of the Gulf war in 91 with a new world order. I think Xinping will not get a 4th term in fact , he might even be replaced during his term and replaced with a pro west Chinese leader. the Pro Russian leaders of Hungary , and Croatia will be replaced after the next elections. A massive stock market boom in 2025, I think a massve stock market crash in 2024 due to WW3 fears and a massive post war vicotry boom in 2025. Russia will have a decade long unrest stretching even into the 2030s. and there will vbe a low level civil war, as the new Russian gov. tries to take control of the Russian fed from armed groups. of ultranationalists to secessionists. Russia will be a geopolitical head ache for a decade or two to come after this war is over. and a great game in paticular for USA/NATO, China, Turkey etc. who wiill want to influence politics within the Russian fed for resource gain.
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I predict after this war is over, Russia will go back to the 90s on steroids. Russian oligarchs backed up by PMCs will rule Russia through their puppet gov. officials, the Russian army will be a joke a shell of its formal self. the real miltiary power of Russia will be the PMCs. So Imagine a Russia with a Russian ruble in hyperinflation, the Russian currency has unofficially dollarized since no one accepts the Russian ruble. and would rather accept USD, EUros, crypto gold and even barter trade. Russia becomes a failed narco state. with a weak corrupt as hell Moscow gov and Russian military and Oligarchs and criminal gangs monopolize the economy and resources of Russia and they use their PMCs and influence in the Russian gov to impose their will. Russia becomes like an African nation as the name of the game is resource extraction to export to other countries along with the USA and China treating Russia as the new great game, vying for influence in the country for its resources. Also Russia the narco state, due to a much weaker Russia gov control, criminal gangs both foreign and domestic run amuck, the country becomes a source for smuggling of all kinds esp. military grade weapons and narcotics to the west. heck not surpirsed if they start growing opium , and other narcotics sources, as well as industrial scale manufacture and processing of narcotics for sale in the west. Not even surprised if you have piracy as criminal gangs use Russian ports as bases for piracy in the Baltic , North Atlantic , Caspian seas. Yep Russia in time of troubles 2.0 will look like an African country, maybe like the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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The appointment of Belosov as defense minister is a show of weakness shows that the Russian economy is not well, and Putin does not have confidence in the Russian economy supporting the war even in the short run, so he appoints Belosov who is not a military man but an economist, and what does Belosov say during his inaguration speech? that he will cut costs in the Russian army hahahha, this is a disaster,
You cant cut costs when the Russian army is bloody stalemated in a war in fact, even with Russia massively overspending and throwing mucho weapons at the Ukrainian in stupid costly tactics and did not really achieve anything but high Russian casualty rates and thousands of destroyed Russian vehicles, cutting costs will actually be really detrimental to the Russian army, it will make it even weaker....hahah,
Meanwhile the USA NATO and other Ukraine allies are increasing their aid to Ukraine, heck it even be more increased in 2025 after Biden wins the elections and the Dems sweep the house and senate.
Putin may be doubling down yah but his actions show the Russian economy cannot support the war for long and note the combined GDPs of the nations supporting Ukraine is about 20X larger than that of Russia and the Russians cutting costs just to prolong the war is folly.
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I think the initial first phase of operation downfall , the invasion of Kyushu wouuld be so bloody and protracted the USA would most likely just blockade the islands of Honshu Hokkaido and Shikoku. blockade, round the clock daily bombings, and use of more nukes on them, I think the US will not only fire bomb the cities, but start fire bombing the forests and rice fields, maybe even use chemical defoilants, on rice fields, sinking of fishing vessels, the war will end with probably a Japanese surrender due to massive famines but this would not happen, for the next say 3-5 years, by that time, the Soviets would have invaded Hokkaido, Japanese gov. will really be forced to surrender with the fear of Soviet invasion of Honshu. You probably would have a quarter of the Japanese civilian population dead from disease starvation , etc. USSR would probably annex Hokkaido turning it into a Soviet oblast. deport all japanese from its territory. with probably a few hundred thousand US casualties, the Japanese home islands would be so devastated the USA would probably spend a bit more resources to fix Japan , rebuild more of its infrastructure etc. USA would probably execute a bit more of Japanese war criminals due to the extension of the war. USA would probably give Japan self gov. at a later period and US military forces would have a bit bigger deployment noting substantial Soviet military forces are just a short distance away in Hokkaido. the SLDF would actually be stronger in thsi what if due to facing Soviet forces off the Shimonseki straights
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My view, Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, west responds: 1. Total economic embargo on Russia, Russia is now considered a terrorist state and anyone else who trades with it gets the same sanctions. 2. NATO mobilizes , NATO troops enter Ukraine. and demand to the Russians any more nuke use, or attacks on NATO troops personel, in Ukraine or elsewhere will result in war with NATO. Also US 6th fleet with NATO ships largest of which are the UK and French elements enter the black sea, and establish a safety cordon to Odessa, Near WW3 confrontation between NATO and Russia. However Ukraine offensives stop, there is a ceasefire and peace talks. Russians stop bombing and missling Ukraine itself and NATO troops stay well away from the Russian troops and protect the major cities but there is still fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the front line. USA EU pressure Ukraine to stop offensives vs. the Russians, Russians however do major offensives vs. the Ukrainians which fail badly. war truelly ends when Putin dies. Power struggle in the Kremlin just like the ned of hte Korean war peace talks but the fighitng itself ends. and in the end , Russians totally withdrew back to the 91 borders Crime is abandoned by Russian troops , in exchange for total lifting of all sanctions vs. Russia, normalizaiton of relations betwen Russia and the west. as well as well as a massive economic aid package, also the sweeten the pot the Russians allow extradition of war criminals to stand trial in the Hague. for war crimes. several hundred billion USD reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia while saved from economic collapse by the USA and EU along with a democratic reformist gov pro west is suffering from political and economic chaos with Chinese and Turkish supported secessionist groups rising in east of the Urals and in the Caucasus. downwards slide for a decade or near civil war. after that Russia stabilizes however loses 50 percent of its territory to secession but comes out economically stable democratic robust. with a pro west reformist stable demoratic gov. the new former Russian independent republics are Turkish or Chinese puppets with authoritarian govs. effects on the world, markets massively crash , Nasdaq 100 crashes to 6K pts before being rescued by a massive QE by the US FED. BTC bitcoin crashes to 9K USD. then inflation rises to 20-30 percent and the US FED does a drastic rasising of the interest rates to 20-30 percent and a QT which crashes the markets more after a massive rally due to the death of Putin and peace in Ukraine.
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@SKumar-mj6gf yah really coward USA huh??? you mean not as cowardly as Russia who likes to attack smaller countries like Hungary(1956), Czechoslovakia(1968), Chechnya, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Georgia, then try to say they are part of Russia LOL. hey the Chechens defeated Russia in the 1st war and took the Russians in the 2nd war more than a decade to pacify the Chechens who only had what 5 to 10 million people . And hey how about Afghanistan Russia. in the 80s, and guess who won the cold war , USA. that is why millions of Russians fled Russia many Russian women became hookers in the streets of Germany , France , Israel USA etc. and how about the famous Russian brides hahah. USSR cant even beat NATO , NATO still exists USSR and warsaw pact went extinct. LOL
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yah 1 million men to be bullet absorbers and area security , yoiu need bodies to garrison areas in order to plug holes in your lines which the Russians desperately need, wait unfortunately these guys are fragile, they get into contact with the Ukrainians they wll break and you will have another Kharkov, keep on getting more Kharkovs and the Russians mobilize another million men you will have more unrest, more defeat, more mobilization means more unrest and put that in with a crashing economy , world oil prices going down, world recession, more humiliation on the battlefield in all adds, up, hopefully sooner we can see Putin getting strung up on a meathook in red square. and the war ends.
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On the flip side, after the war ends with Putin getting to keep 20 percent of Ukraine, the Russians will have a very hard time rebuilding their army and economy after the war, as Russia faces bad inflation, the sanctions lifting is slow. also western investors not going back to Russia plus the hundreds of theousands of Russian war veterans going home is causing high crime rates and other social problems as Russia changes from a war to a civilian economy , the veterans face high unemploymenbt and hyperinflation. and the Russians will feel that they have not won the war. and that the war was about protecting Putin's regime. and not about the Russian people. I think Putin will face widespread unrest and he will respond with an iron hand, more repression martial law and purges of oligarchs and elites blaming them for the failures of the war. and there are a lot of PMCs private military companies which are the private armies of the Oligarchs and elites, if Putin turns on his elites, they have their own military forces to protect themselves from a purge. and That will result in civil war, about 10 years after the war ends. You will have Russia becoming Syria 2.0
Meanwhile Ukraine in 10 years has rebuilt its economy infrastructure, restructured and rebuilt and reorganized its army along NATO lines. removing the Soviet with a NATO combat doctrine. lots of western aid and investment go into Ukraine. and also Ukraine is supporting Russian anti gov groups ranging from disgruntled elites to criminal groups to secessionists. Just to destabilize Russia so that it slows down Russian rebuild of its economy and military. The new Ukrainian gov. is very vengeful with an eye to regain back its lost territories and a policy to undermine Russia. and its proven they have the strong capability to do so with the Ukrainian intelligence services having extensive networks within Russia, and after the war there will be a lot of anti Putin anti gov sympathizers in Russia. the Ukrainians of course will help aided by the USA and allied intel services. and if Russia goes into civil war, Ukraine will be a major player in the civil war strongly supporting Russian anti government groups. and when the Russians are weak enough, the Ukrainians will move fast and regain all of its lost territories.
the Russian civil war will probably last a decade or more. and Russia will break up into several new nations. The civil war will be a great game between USA/Ukraine, China and Turkey. I can see China support secessionists in the Russian siberia and Far East and form several Puppet governments there and having Chinese troops occupying Russian siberia and far east under the guise of peace keeping troops and later turn these areas into special Chinese automous regions which is basically being annexed by China just like Xinjiang and Tibet. Turkey probably supports the froming of new nations in the Russian caucasus namely Chechnya and Dagestan. stations Turkish peace keeping troops, Turkey becomes the dominant power in the Caucasus.
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LOL,,,,the Russian military is just an ongoing disaster, incompetent moronic , now Oct 31, 2022, the Russians only control pats of Kherson, Donbass. they got kicked out of Eastern Ukraine hahaha. so what next bet you by Summer 2023, Ukraine wins completely kicks out the Russians out of Ukraine probably even crimea included.
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oh yah and the supposedly valiant suicidal Hamas forces celebrating attacking IDF troops in their go pro videos, their attacks have not stopped IDF offensives into Gaza, in fact it only irritated the IDF, did not even slow down the IDF offensives who are doing it careful and slow going. in fact, the Hamas said they blow up dozens of IDF tanks when in reality a few were disabled, and in repair. and crews alive. and will shortly go back into combat. the thousands of Hamas fighters the Israelis killed and wounded are not going back to the fight, noting Hamas medical supplies are running low. they dont have enough doctors, to treat their thousands of wounded. and Israelis bombs missles and artillery are very precise. The Go pro videos made by Hamas are meant ot what??? celebrate killing dozens of IDF soldiers while the IDF kills thousands of Hamas, in exchange, Crazy and stupid. Hey maybe one day the Palestenians will learn their real enemy are not the Israelis but their corrupt asshole leaders who steal most of their money , make them live in poverty and blame the Israelis for all their problems while living in mansions in Paris, Dubai, Lebanon etc. Did you idiots not know their revered messiah Yasir Arafat after he died they found out he stole billions of uSD and his family now lives in mansions in Paris, London and Vancouver while all of you live in poverty and in small cramped apartments in Gaza and west bank....
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anyways the Russians while weaker than they are a year ago is still very formidable they have now changed their tactics from a tank heavy manuever force to infantry heavy assault for Strosstrupen 1918 type tactics, with constant attacks of small group of Russian assault infantry well equipped with RPGs, RPO Schmells, Kord machineguns, AGS-17 auto grenade launchers, supported by 1-2 tanks and IFVs, the Russians are keeping their tanks back as infantry support. which is in adopt to the Ukrainians strategy of well fortified trenches and positions. and this is backed up by massive Russian artillery support with mulitiple TOS fuel air explosive missles and strong air support with SU-25s by night, Su-35s by day. still doing pray and spray. but effective also dropping fuel air explosives. napalm and other goodies. So the Russians are gettinig their act together. The Rusisans are mainly assaulting with their newly mobilized troops supported by VDV and Spetsnaz to exploit breakthrus and do night recon(sometimes in force), drone recon is very poor for the Russians and Wagner penal troops are still used to do recon in force to probe Ukrainian defense lines first before the real blow comes in . Ukrainians know this and is adopting to this strategy what the Ukrs forces need right now are more heavy NATO weapons to come int, more artillery, ATACMS, HMARS, GLSDB , drones, Mark 19s, , heck the Ukrainians will need cluster muniitions for their missles and artillery to counter the Russian strosstruppen tactics.
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yah the Russians are so desperate they are grasping at anything they can find , the stalemate is actually bad for the Russians, since their economy is getting more kaput the longer the war goes, the Ukrainains have the backing of the USA, so its economy is kept alive by the USA and her allies. who btw, are 40X bigger than the Russian GDP combined. its not the manpower advantage of the Russians , its the economy. The longer the war goes, the more the sanctions bite hard, the more frayed the Russian economy is, no one wants to buy the Russian ruble so the gov has to spends lots of money just to shore up its currency. Russians are running out of cash, and Russian economists have forecast officially Russian economy can hold out until 2025. Not surprised if China is lending out lots of monies to the Russians to help prop up their economy. but in the end, China will want the monies repaid, and CHina will get to control a post war Russian economy, making Russia just another Chinese client state. A Biden win in 2024 will mean 4 more years of war which the Russian economy cannot afford. I think this war will end in 2025 or in 2026 when the Russians cut their losses retire Putin and withdraw from Ukraine totally including Crimea. in return Russians get all the sanctions lifted plus relations are normalized with the west and possibly some economic aid to prop up the Russian economy from total collapse. Ukraine also gets a formal peace treaty with Russia which also recognizes Ukraine's right to join NATO and the EU. Post war results: Russia does not collapse into civil war but goes into a long period of depressed economy social and political disorder simliar to the 90s but worse. this time, you have a very weak Russian army and gov. few foreign investors, and much ore crazy angry unpaid war veterans. the real power in post war Russia will be the oligarchs and Mafiya, and their PMCs, Russian oblasts and republics will have a bit more say in how to govern their areas and probably have their own militaries, Russia effectively becomes a massive decentralized narco state. with a weak Moscow gov and army controlled by Oligarchs. and is a battleground of political and economic influence between teh USA and China.
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also what is happening is a Myanmar is a counter move vs. Putin, Myanmar gov is pro Russia and China. , currently its being overthrown. by rebels with covert western help. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine and the collapse of Putin will have have massive geopolitical effects which results in first loss of support and confusion in the far right and far left groups around the world that Russia has been supporting. (probably later financed by China). world realignment with the USA. Pro Russian regimes in Belarus, Georgia fall replaced by Pro USA ones. Possible fall of the Maduro gov in Venezuela. Far right factions in teh republican party fall as their funding with Putin gone and Trump having lost the elections of 2024. Not surpirsed the Republican party is taken over by more pragmatic moderates. Not suprised if China and Iran realigns, the Xinping regime is not given ends with the third term and a new pro west moderate Chinese gov takes over, same with Iran. the former USSR nations of the CSIS realign with the USA and China. The populist pro Putin govs in Hungary , Slovakia , netherlands, Serbia fall. Orban goes into retirement, probably faced wtih numerous criminal charges. in the next 20 years, Ukraine, Moldova , Georgia, Belarus are all accepted into the EU and NATO, Armenia is accepted into the EU. Russian federation more or less remains the same does not collapse but is wracked with political social and economic instability for a decade. or more. Russian federation becomes the next geopolitical hotspot as USA and China battle for influence in the new great game. Russia is important due its resources, and strategic location. I think what will happen to Russia is taht it essentially becomes an oligarch controlled state with a weak Moscow gov and Russian military where the real power are hte oligarchs and their PMCs. Russian leaders are puppets of the oligarchs and the oligharchs make sure no one like Putin ever comes ot power again. The law and order is loose in the new Russia where anything goes and Russia essentially becomes a the biggest Narco state in the world, where it becomes the world cener of illegal narcotics manufacturing , criminal gang cartel activity, refugee smuggling to Europe etc.
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its stalemate, weber is generalizing. Does not take into account, poor training and morale of hte Russians, and the high morale of the Ukrainians. also poor leadership, poor Russian combat doctrine, along with political instability, the Russians did improve their logistics , tactics etc. I heard Putin was micromanaging this war heavilly right down to the brigade level until late last year when he appointed Garasimov as head of the war in Ukraine and gave him almost total freedom in decision making and actually stepped back from the micromanagement and delegated it to Garasimov. Overall I think the war is a stalemate. when Weber says winning, like the Russians can still walk out of this war control like 20 percent of Ukraine and declare victory. For the Russians or Putin, regime survival and the end of this war is considered a victory. its not total control of Ukraine, I dont think the Russians will ever achieve that one unless they use multiple nukes and devastate ukraine. So yes the Russians improved substantially in terms of command and control. the Russians generals were given freedom to do as they wish, , coordination with the Russian air force better now. However what is not improved and probably cannot be improved is the poor traiining of the regular Russian soldiers esp. the newly mobilized troops who are still given short basic training then thrown in Ukraine and made to learn as you go. Leadership is still poor in the Russian army top to bottom, morale still poor. Logistics still poor , Russian units seem to suffer from ammo shortages.
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I dont think the Russians can conventionally turn things around , in 7 months of war nearly 8 months , their army has degraded severely, to the point they seem to be only defending , the Russians cannot do major offensives anymore, the last one they did was in the Donbass in Summer of 2022 which they expended millions of rounds of artillery and lost thousands of men in the process, and they did capture hundreds of kilometers of territory from the Ukrainians advancing through heavilly fortified Ukr positions but it was very costly, and now the Russian have lost a lot of their gains during that summer offensive of 2022 with the lost of Izyum and Lyman. in a span of a month with a bunch of Russian units destroyed or heavilly mauled like the 1st GTA. It is not looking good for the Russians. and the Ukr army is gettting better and stronger, with better training, of mobilized reserves high morale, lots of weapons from NATO and captured Russian AFVs. the Ukrs forces are actually counterattacking and retaking thousands of KMs of lost territory, the Russians are just retreating to avoid being encircled and leaving lots of their vehicles and equipment behind along with their dead which they abandon. The state of the Russian army is so bad and with mobilization the forced draftees aer so poorly trained and have low morale and many are not even physically fit for combat that I cant see them actually doing a proper operational major miltiary offensive even with the Russians still having a lot of weapons and vehicles to use. Also Russian logistics have not really improved and have actually gotten worse with the Ukrainians targetting their ammo dumps , supply lines. logistical hubs, and also the economy, and the Russian gov lack funds so bad and has poor management of logistics and corruption that they cant even properly equip their forced drafted conscripts. So I predict the Russians will use multiple tac nukes to stop a major Ukrainian offensive to stop them from inflicting another major defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine probably a catastrophic one which can collapse the Russian army in Ukraine. I think this will be done in the winter of 2022 to 2023, the Russians are poorly equipped to deal with winter as they are low in winter gear, many of the forced draftees have to bring their own winter clothes. and this coming winter will be some of the coldest in Euro history, Europe in 2022 had some of the most hottest summers in recorded history. so when you have very hot summers you will have very bad winters. and it can get as cold as -10 to -15 C in Southern Ukraine. I think it might even go to -20 C or even -25 C thsi winter in Southern Ukraine. I can see thousands of Russian casualties. from exposure and frostbite. WHiel the Ukrs are much better prepared for winter than the Russians, with massive aid from NATO. I can see a Ukrs major winter counteroffensive that is reminiscent of the Finnish winter war of 1940. Its stalingrad 2.0 for the Russians with them playing the Germans. Troops not properly equipped for a bad winter cannot really fight. I expect the Ukrs to attack at the heart of winter when the Russians least expect them to attack. And the Russians do not really have their arctic troops anymore, many of them got killed fighting in the past months in Ukraine. So there goes that winter war training for the Russians. this winter will be a TOTAL DISASTER for the Russians, enough for Putin to order the use of tac nukes.
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I find it amusing Russian fan bitches making excuses about the capture of Ukraine, it amuses me, with Ukraine having recaptrued 50 percent of what if lost . The Russians have hardly been able to advance, and Bakhmut took them 9 months to take it and 50K casualties later , wow if Russia were to fight NATO for real, NATO would crush the Russians,heck the Polish army with ample NATO support can probably smash the Russians back, the Russian army is that pathetic. but of course we dont have to, the Ukrainians will do it for us. and they are doing it well. The vaunted supposedly 2nd best army in the world , the RUssians are so pathetic, heck probably Poland and Finland can kick their asses. Russia is all honk no substance, I stil predict the Russians will lsoe this war by 2026. and Russia will civil war, and all the Russian fan boys will complain to youtube of being victims and say Ukraine violated their human rights hahahha. The Russians will become the largest refugee population in Europe when they massively leave Russia by the millions. the cheap Russian refugee hookers will again line the streets of Clichy Paris like it was the 90s. its coming back on roids LOL>
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I dont see a settlement happening probably at the earliest 2025. 1 year of war, both sides still have a lot of fight left in them, both sides are strong enough to want more war to achieve their aims and are not letting up. I can see the war being a very bloody brutal back and forth centered on the Donbass and the South. Russia can have another go at Kiev and Kharkov but that would be foolish. Russia is already having a hard time just trying to take the Donbass. I can see Putin calling for negotiations if he takes all of the Donbass , probably if he takes Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. but the Ukrainians will ignore this and keep on fighting. However on the strategic side, 2023 will see more back and forth with the Ukrainians with strong NATO and allied backing trying to win the war before the 2024 US elections occurs. Putin will hang on until the results of the 2024 elections, and will do his utmost to influence the US 2024 presidential elections which I think will be pivotal to this war, I think Putin will escalate in 2024 with teh use of chemical weapons, start moving his nukes around, even doing Nuke tests near Ukraine, and doing provocative incidents with NATO to get a feeling of Impending WW3 up in the air, so Putin plans to scare the US stock markets to a crash so hard to cause a recession. and if a recession occcurs during the US 2024 elections, it will have a critical impact on it. Putin wants a Pro Peace US president to win the elections. if that happens, then the Pro Peace US pres. can stop aid to Ukraine and force to Ukraine to negotiate with Russia with the Russians having the advantage. Barring that if a Pro Ukraine US pres. wins in 2024, Putin will get even more desperate, possibly escalate even more that he most probably order the use of nukes in Ukraine to finish the war once and for all , I think this will be Putin's downfall, his own people will probably remove him from power, and that is when peace will happen, that is when negotiations will start just like when Stalin died, in 1953, was when the USSR pressured the Chinese and NOrth Koreans to do peace negotiations with the UN and South Koreans.
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so I tink this war will end by summer of 2022 probably mid to late summer looking at how the first month alone was really disastrous for hte Russian invading army. The more months this war lasts, much more doisastrous this is for the Russian army, they simply cannot fix the mess they are in and I have no doubt they are desperately trying to do it but its very hard, they literally have to probably step back and totally reform their army which can take years to do. So they are stuck with a totally dysfuctional army fighting a very determined well armed enemy. shoving thousands more troops into the meatgrinder wont solve it you just get more casusalties, the Ukrainians have many millions of men and women on reserve who are very motivated to fight. Even if Russia goes on a war footing, the Russians will not be willing to die for a klepto Russian oligarchy in fact die with stupid battlefield leadership and logistics. I dont think the Russians will use Chems and Nukes since the cost to the Russians will be great. these will just massive increasely and itghten the sanctions on the Russians and give impetus to provide even more deadly military hardware to the Ukrainians. who will not stop fighting. and probably fight harder. So my opinioin war ends sometime in Summer of 2022 withi the Russians keeping control of the Donbass. Ukraine getting admitted to the EU. sanctions mostly lifted from Russia. 50K Russians dead, 150K wounded. Ukrainians suffer around 25K dead, 100K wounded. thousands of civilians dead and wounded. trillion dollar marshal plan from USA and EU to rebuild Ukraine. Russia depressed economy. back to business. Putin purges his military and gov. however dies within 5 years. from supposed natural causes. political and economic chaos in Russia, millions of Russian immigrate out of Russia. Sino Russia relations become closer, as China props up the Russian economy buys up Russian companies and partners with them. Belarus kicks out Lukashenko civilian democratically elected gov takes power, Belarus joins the EU. Moldova joins the EU. so does Kosovo.and Georgia.
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I think the war even if Russia manages a "win" quote on quote which means a negotiated armistice where Russia keeps the 20 percent of UKraine they conquered lifting of all sanctions, unfreezing of all assets, while Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in rebuild aid. The Russian military has been seriously weakened humiliated and discredited and the Russian economy heavilly damaged and Putin's political standing seriously damaged. to which I dont think Russia will be invading anyone for a long time. Meanwhile Ukraine will be rebuilding its economy , reforming and rebuilding its military along NATO lines. with the aim of retaking the 20 percent of its territory it lost to Russia. Russia post war will be beset with serious social political and economic problems which will disrupt rebuilding the Russian military and economy. and the foreign investors mostly wont be coming back to Russia, and the Europeans will be mostly hostile to Russia. Ukraine gets built up to possibly be the wall vs. the Russians protecting Europe from the Russia despite not being in NATO, not surprised if Ukraine forms defence pacts seperate from NATO with nations like Poland , Baltic states, UK, France, Germany, and the USA.
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well there will still be WW2, tensions between USA and Japanese empire still exists as the USA has not gotten over being beaten by the Japanaese and the Japanese feel American held Hawaii is still a threat to its hegemony in the Pacific. Also while Germany is victorious in mainland Europe and there is peace with the British Empire. There are still tensions between Britain and Germany. This is a quadripolar world with the USA, Britain, Germany and Japan as teh great powers. Russian civil war still occurs and Russia fractures into various independent states who are under the German, Ottoman, Japanese , Austro Hungarian spheres of influence. China still goes into civil war and is fractured along the lines of warlord states. supported by the Japanese, USA, British, and Germans. The KMT still rises under Sun Yat Sen & Chiang Kai Shek supported by Germany , and the USA and manages to unite the southern warlords under his banner, Japanese troops intervene. China becomes a Japanese quagmire for the next few decades.
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I predict, it will not end well with Musk, remember Jack Ma, one of the richest men in the world and possibly the richest man in China at the time, was flambouyant he crossed the line with the CCP Chinese commie party said it was no good, then he got blasted by the CCP, who confiscated much of his wealth and put him under house arrest Musk has pissed off many people esp. the USA democrats and EU politiicos , Musk thinks he can get away with it, but he wont, when the dems get back in power, they will destroy Musk. Get him investigated, put in prison, his US citizenship revoked. his wealth frozen by the IRS. Musk thinks he can possibly overthrow the USA demo party , he wont succeed, and he will pay. Heck not surprirsed if Musk ends up like Epstein.
I predict within ten years, Musk will not be the richest man in the world, but will be in prison or worse. Musk crossed many lines and he will pay.
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well if I were trump I would look at it like this:
I made a deal with putin , he gives me billions of USD to get me nominated by the Rep party essentially bribing the Rep party through lobbies and super pacs. OK will honor my end of the deal which probably means as they agreed before the elections that I, Trump will lift all sanctions on Russia, stop supplying Ukraine with monetary aid and weapons, also unfreeze all assets of the Russians in western banks. and presure the Ukrainians to be a puppet of the Russians, and reduce the size of their miltiary and disarm
However Upon becoming Pres. Trump realizes the he has the Russians over the barrell, also it is in his best interest to preserve the Ukrainians as a strong buffer vs. the Russians plus with the massive hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction money, him and his friends can make a LOT of money from Ukraine's reconstruction, also Trump does not want to piss off the US military industrial complex since the USA military companies are making a LOT of money with the Ukraine war selling weapons to Ukraine(with the US gov paying for it). Also Trump does not want to piss off powerful people in the US gov and military if they let Russians get everything they want with Ukraine. It is in the best interest of the Americans to see a much weakened Russia with Putin preferrably out of power. but with Russia not in civil war. So leaving Putin in power until a strong Russian leader can be found to replace him is much preferrable , USA does not want civil war in Russia.
From what I hear, Putin got really pissed off at Trump from that Election day phone call. That putin will not get all he wants, from what I hear the most the Russians will get is a armistice where the war stops at the line of control for both sides. Ukraine does not get NATO or EU membership. However NATO and UN troops will be stationed at the lines of contact between Russian and Ukraine to prevent the breaking of the armistice. No USA troops will be involved. however any attack on these peacekeeping troops will be considered an act of war on NATO. Ukraine is allowed sovereighnity, Zelensky stays in office, and Ukraine has the right to rebuild and reform its military in any way it wants. and the lifting of all sanctions on Russia and unfreezing of Russian assets is conditional in the Russians accepting the armistice. If the Russians do not accept the terms of armistice, then USA will continue to aid Ukraine and possibly give more weapons to ukraine and add sanctions ont he Russians.
Yep , I think Putin is probably heavy with rage at being backstabbed by Trump in the business deal , but that is what trump does when he has enough leverage on his business partner to safely swindle him or her. in a deal with little to no repercussions. That is why the Russians showed naked pictures of melania in RT, and denied the phone call with trump. Musk is sort of working independent of Trump and trying to influence Ukraine's allies in Europe to vote for their far right parties, I think at the behest of Moscow. Musk is in it for himself having been paid a lot of money by the Russians and Musk also has a lot of factories in China, so the Chinese are threatening him in that regard. I think Putin and Musk will probably break with each other due to this.
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India has nukes. India has a formidable military. I dont think China will invade India but will menace it. NO India pakistan war due to Chinese threats on India. also no invasion by Myanmar of Bangladesh, South Asia would be quiet but have a simmering tension. The battle for the South China sea would be China/North Korea/Russia vs. USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, South Korea., Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore. Vietnam. I dont think the Chinese will invade Vietnam probably just menace it, the Chinese already has its hands full fighitng in Taiwan and South Korea. as well as trying to control the south and east China sea.
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if Russia is still underestimating western weapons, then its a fool, actually probably either the Russian leaders are totally brain dead retarded drunk all the tme, or they really know the capabilities but are just doing the macho blustering on it to hide weakness, Im for the latter. despite Russia having 10X the war planes Ukraine has, Russia cant seem to achieve air superiority in Ukraine, (neither can the Ukrs) and the Ukr air force is still flying. Goes to show how poorly trained, the Russian air force pilots are with poor leadership and coordination, even the Russian air force scarcely shows up on the battlefield, there is speculation the Russians are keeping a lot of their air force behind, due to fears of war with NATO but this is BS, 95 percent of the Russian air force and army is in Ukraine trying to defeat the Ukrs. and the Russian air force usually has poor coordination with ground troops , like to pray and spray from long distances or release their glide bombs beyond the range of Ukr SAMs. Also due to poor maintenance, spare parts shortages, over use, many Russian planes are not only non functional but actually dangerous to fly noting the many Russian plane crashes lately. Yah if Ukraine gets F-16s and ohter NATO aircraft in substantial numbers, the Russian are in trouble and Ukraine can actually achieve air superiority over the battlefield which will be really EMBARASSING for the Russians, LOL HOW EMBARASSING RUSSIA.
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and if you look at it, Ukrainians has come a long way from its position last year as underdog to now equal to the Russains. in military power in Ukraine. and that is just 1.5 years into the war. The Russian leadership are so stupid they squandered their massive military and economic advantage over Ukraine, its that stupid in Russia, I think at worst , Russia might "win" this war keeping 10-20 percent of Ukraine. before an armistice. but their army and economy will be in ruins, Russia a pariah state to the west and under bad sanctions which will really limit their economic and military recovery. or at best Russia might lose this war, like evicted from all of Ukraine back to the 90s borders. and Russia goes into civil war. economy collapses Russia becomes like 1920s China where the country was ruled by warlords with no central authority or like Mexico in the 1910s where you have governments changing all the time as factions fight each other for control. either way since Putin does not have a viable successor, so when he goes, there will be a civil war. for succession. and millions of Russian casualties in a ten year civil war, and millions of Russians becoming refugees to Europe, in the largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Russia going into civli war will have massive repercussions worldwide. as Rusia at the end of the civl war breaks up into several new nations. Russian federation will survive minus 25 to 50 percent of its territory.
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well I think Russia will not be defeated by militarily pushing them out by teh Ukrs. Russia will be defeated with an economic collapse. The longer the war goes , the weaker the Russian economy gets, and when the global recession/depression hits in 2023, Oil prices will crash hard , and when that happens, the Russian economy will go into depression and will probably collapse, Russian economy under sanctions these days relies heavilly on oil and gas imports and high oil and gas prices. when the oil and gas prices collapse in a global depression/recession caused by a recession in the USA due to the fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, oil prices will collapse due to really lowered demand. Russia turns into Venezuela 2.0. and in so doing cannot finance the war, which by 2023 has turned into a WW1 Iran Iraq war style stalemate, war of attrition World war one with 1960s to 2022 military technology. Russian manpower and firepower superiority vs. Ukrainian determination and skill and massive NATO EU financial and military support. Ukraine has millions of reserves it can call up. The stalemate will center on the eastern and Southern Ukraine. The longer the war goes Russia will find it increasingly more difficult to fund the war, this causes logistical problems, I dont think Russia will mobilize for fears of causing internal unrest. Russia's so called military operation its version of limited war will turn into military and economic attrition. with both sides unwilling to compromise until they achieve their war aims for both leaders their political careers and possibly even their lives are at stake. While the Russians have huge number of men and weapons to call to the table,the Ukrainians have a massive economic backing from USA, the EU and their allies. as well as massive sanctions placed to the Russians. The Russians are in a economic time limit to win the war before oil and gas prices collapse therefore seriously undermining their ability to fund the war and its all about the economy. In this scenario I think the Russians will lose the war when their economy starts to collapse probably by mid to late 2023. Massive unrest in Russia due to food shortages caused by massive uncontrolled inflation, lack of funds, and increased sanctions from the west. not only will the Russian economy suffer from the crashed oil prices, but also the Europeans esp. the Germans have significantly stopped buying oil and natural gas from the Russians making the situation worse. As said earlier, Russia becomes Venezuela/Sri Lanka 2.0. . All these leads to increased repression, martial law which leads to more unrest, leads to political instability. Not surprised Putin and his closest all get purged. New gov. takes over in Moscow blames Putin for all their problems and calls for peace talks armistice. All this political and economic chaos causes logistical problems for the Russian army in Ukraine which by this time is in poor shape due to war weariness and very bad logistical problems. Ukrainians probably launch successful offensives which recapture huge swathes of Ukrainian territory which further exacerbates the situation for Russia. which will probably be the catalyst for Putin to be purged. War ends with Putin gone new Russian gov. in an armistice and after peace talks orders withdrawal of the Russian army back to Russia but keeping Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are sacrificed. the withdrawal is messy. and very poorly planned. reminiscent of the Russian army withdrawal from Chechnya at tjhe end of hte first chechen war, many Russian troops have to walk back to Russia many weapons are left in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers dont even go back to Russia but try to defect to the Western Europe claiming political asylum. Lots of looting and rape by the retreating Russian army who are joined by Pro Russian Ukr civilians. Also the Ukrainians have to fight Russian soldiers who have become bandits. Lots of chaos also on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine as law and order there collapses with drunk crazy retreated Russian soldiers looting and raping and becoming bandits. Russian army is deployed to regain order in Belgorod and the Russian border areas to Ukraine.
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also another comparison to the Ukriane war is the Iran Iraq war.Sept 1980 to Aug 1988. The war became a stalemate from June 1982 to the end in 1988 where the war was frozen along with Iran Iraq border with major battles happening. but not much change in territory. as both sides attacked and counterattacked. losing and retaking lost territory. Both sides were dependent on the export of oil for their economies to support the war. When the war started in Sept 1980 the oil price was 130 USD per barrell. by the time of the stalemate in June 1982 the oil prices dropped to 107 USD per barrell and dropped to its lowest rate at 30 USD in July 1986. While both the Iranian and Iraqi economies were much supported by oil exports, the Iraqis had strong economic support from the USA , UK , France West Germany, Saudis, Gulf Arab states, so even with low oil prices it can survivie, the Iranians nope. In fact the Iranians got desperate and started offensives towards Baghdad and Basra(Iraqi city which is central to the Iraqi oil indsutry) which failed badly and the tanker war targetting foreign and Iraqi shipping in the Persian gulf which failed badly just to create a crisis to raise the price of oil which succeeded but the USA and her allies responded with their navies deployment to the Persii=an gulf to protect shipping and the Saudis raising oil production bringing the price of oil down to 33 USD(it went up to 50 USD due to the tanker war crisis of 1987 to 1988.). Iran called for an armistice and got it in late 1988 with its economy in near collapse and unable to support the war. ....So in comparison same can happen here in the Ukraine war. I expect a crash in oil prices by 2023 to 2024. then that is when Putin gets desperate as the Russian economy starts collapsing rapidly. then he escalates creates a crisis to raise the oil prices. then is confronted by the USA and NATO. ....and that is when the war will end, when Russia has really run out of viable options with economic collapse staring at them in the face, and Putin being the only obstacle to a resolution of the war , they will get rid of Putin.
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@stevev238 yah and 200 rubles = 1 USD to buy USD , 50 rubles to 1 USD to sell USD. its literally a bullshit rate. Goes to show you what the Russian banks think of the Russian ruble, that is why they are stocking up on the USD. is the official bank rates until the Russian gov stepped in and everyone went back to the official rates
In Vancouver, Canada, most exchanges dont even list the Russian ruble , those that do, the current rate is , to buy CAD, 124 Rubles = 1 CAD, to buy Russian rubles, 46 Ruble = 1 CAD hahaha, total bullshit rates.
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well this is what happened when a egostistical deluded megalomaniac ex KGB office worker without any military training or experience tries to micro manage the war and has near complete control on how the war is run. like Micromanaging it to even the unit X level . ITS A DISASTER. and his generals are just window dressing. They take the fall if he makes mistakes. That is why you see how completely ineffective the Russian military is. Im not surprised you see this current bruhaha from wagner and the Chechens, you can see Putin sowing distrust and rivalry among his military leaders as is practice Putin does not want a united front of competent military leaders to oust him. I think the Russians are reinforcing their position in Ukraine, and digging in for the winter, the Russians dont really have any choice since the overall quality of its troops are very poor and would be a disaster if Russia undertakes a major operational military offensive right now, best to defend dig in , maybe launch small counterattacks or offensives. Ukrs are probably taking their breath continuing on offensives as much as they can and preparing for winter also, basically Ukrainians are trying to not let the Russians dig in and catch their breath, so Ukraine is continuing the offensives and pressing home their advantages. so that the Russians are on the backfoot , constantly off balance and inflict as much casuatlies as they can before the rain mud then snow makes things difficult. And then when the ground hardens after the snows in the next few months the Ukrainaisn will launch major winter offensives. which I think the Russians are not prepared for, in fact I htink this winter will be some of the worst winters in European history not surprised to see -15 to -20 C weather in the South of Ukraine. and this is when the Ukrs will launch their surprsie winter offesnives when the harsh winter weather really hampers the logsitics and command and control of the Russian army. The Russian forced draftees are not prepared for winter, severe supply shortages of winter gear and medicines will cause massive amounts of casualties this winter from exposure on Russian forces, While the Ukrs forces are well prepared and well supplied this winter. The Russian are not, over the years, the Russian army conducted numerous winter arctic military excercises but theh problem is that many of the winter arctic trained troops have been sent into Ukraine since the start of the war has have become casualties many are dead from these so called elite units. and they are replaced by these low quality forced draftees, and most Russian army units have become populated witih poorly motivated, armed, trained supplied forced draftees and have become very poor draftee units. Russian units which still keep up to standards are the Chechens, Spetsnaz, VDV and the core wagner group(not the newly raised penal units). I would say 75 percent of the Russian army in Ukraine right now is garbage. The Russians are also keeping a large portion of their regular trained military in Russia in order to maintain order to help the local Russian security services maintain order in the face of arrest and just in case there is war with NATO. whcih I think is secondary. Things are not looking good for Russia, I think Putin will be forced to use battlefield units by 1st quarter of 2023 in the face of a possible general collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine. War will end sometime in mid 2023 and I predict Putin will be deposed within 3 to 5 years of peace in Ukraine. due to economic collapse , massive unrest , bankruptcy of the Russian gov not being able to pay its military, it will start of with munities from the Russian military. With Putin gone there is infighting within the Russian gov. and as the Russian military anbd security forces fragment, with no central control , a number of Russian republics will secede. Russian federation will break up . the secessionists supported by Turkey and China. when the dust settles the forner Russian federation will balkanize into several countries, the largest state will still be Russia covering all of Western Russia, the urals and Siberia. the rest about 50 percent of Pre war Russia, will be composed of several indepedent republics . The break up will be bloody expect genocidal wars, as minorities clash with Russians as they try to achieve independence.
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I think this war's outcome is determinate ont he results of the 2024 USA elections. I think its most likely Biden will win in 2024 when this happens, I think Putin will be forced resign in 2025 by the oligarchs , they will cut their losses as the Russian economy and political will cannot stand another 4 years of war and they need to salvage as much as of the Russian economy and military as they can , Russian troops will withdraw in late 2025 except from Crimea. in return a substantial part of the sanctions will be lifted however the Ukrainians will regain Crimea thru negotiations years later, in order to lift fully the sanctions and get relations back to normal with the west. Putin will either die or be forced to retire and he will be blamed for everything. I think by the time war ends, Russia would have lost about 500K to 750K casualties with 100K to 150K dead. the currency exchange rate of 1 USD to 1K Rubles. A Russian economy dangerously near collapse. I think Putin would declare this to be a war sometime in 2024 after the elections, and mass mobilize, but failure to defeat the Ukrs even after a general mass mobilization in 2024 , losing lots of men and materiel, massive devaluation of the Ruble, economic depression, massive inflation massive rise in cost of essentials, and Russia getting major defeats. leads to a unrest , oligarchs use this to remove Putin from power. with a Russian army mutiny. sometime in mid to late 2025.
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as said before, the 2024 USA electons will be pivotal as to who wins this war. I think Biden will win the elections and I think this war will end in the 2025 to 2029 timeline. the Russian economy simply cannot keep up with this war. You can see this with the Russian Ruble exchange currently at 1 USD to 100 rubles. (at the strongest it was 1 USD to 54 rubles in June 2022). and Putin has currently called for more of the Russian economy and industry to be devoted to war, this means more money printing, more inflation and very high interest rates(which really hurts the economy) and more borrowing money from its allies India and China. A long war is simply bad news for the economy as the Russian gov has to devote a increasingly larger percentage of its economy nad industry to the war in Ukraine which is not profitable and a money drain to the Russian economy and more money to keep prices of essential goods like food etc. low so that the population does not revolt. The more the Russian economy is devoted to the war, the worse it will be , esp. after the war is over. when it will be very difficult for the Russians to transition their economy and industry back from military to civilian. Case in point the fall of the USSR in 91 where a large portion of the Soviet economy was devoted to their military f vs. the USA int he cold war. It took more than a decade of painful economic readjustment from a military centric Soviet economy to a Russian fed civilian one. and the Russian Fed had good relations with the west and massive amounts of western investment and aid supported the Russian economy in this transition, that is why they were able to weather the political fall out from the defeat in the first Chechen war in the mid 90s. However in this war, in the aftermath there will be no western aid and investment, and I think the Russians will barely be able to survive with Indian and Chinese investments. In fact, I can see the Chinese making Russia into a economic vassal state. The Russians of course will try to play games and try for a reapproachment with teh west, but the price may be too steep for Putin to pay.
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Yep this video nailed the problems of the Russian army. in fact, Russians tanks are good but the problem is that how they are used, poor training , poor tactics , poor overall strategy used by the Russians, Russian army of 2022 seems to be very much stuck to the chechen war mentalities, like OK looks like the tanks failed, so now just bombard the crap out of the enemy then go back in with a bigger force, rinse and repeat. The Russians seem to be doing the same thing in Bakhmut and nowhere else, everywhere else they seem to be digging in and fortifiying which tells me, the Russians fear the Ukr army. and do not want to attack and are doing the defensive. except in Bankmut which seems to be a wagner operation divorced form the rest of hte Russian army.
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I think Putin is still micromanaging this war, kadyrov and prigozhin are just kabuki theater acts, I think the Russian military leadership is getting pissed off at Putin's mishandling of the war, like direct mishandling and Putin is using his most loyal dogs kadyrovb and Prigozhin to reign in the Russian military leaderhsip, notice that Putin is firing a bunch of Russian generals and blaming them for failures, when the direct orders are said to have come from the Kremlin itself. As I said Putin is micromanaging this war down to even the X level. I think the Russian military leadership wants total freedom from direct meddling from the Kremlin. and wants to do its thing but of course Putin will have non of that. Putin's ego and paranoia is such he will never allow the Russian army to do its own thing for fear of them overthrowing him and his ego says he knows more than his generals, and of course when Putin fucks, up, he is told otherwise and he blames his generals for failures in his decision making. this political infighting in the Russian leadership circles is great, it will get worse esp. after the Russian lose another major battle, like Kherson, or even worse than that. how about losing the Donbass. which I think will happen in 2023. when those happens, this will casue political chaos. in the Kremlin,
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IUn a Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine scenario I can see the Ruble after total sanctions go from 70 to 700 Rubles to 1 USD. Also I predict Putin will mobilize the Russian population to fight in Ukraine. This will be seen to be more preferrable to using weapons of mass destruction. The Russian public will go along with this. however the newly mobilized conscript reserves will be even worse trained, worse motivated and probably even less well armed than the initial frontline troops the Russians threw into Ukraine. and the Ukrainians are increasingly getting well armed, better trained, still high morale. in fact, arguably very high morale due to atrocities done by the Russian army. getting put into social media. Ukraine still has not mobilized all of its population. I predict the Russians will do a short training session probably 1-2 weeks at most for the new conscripts then throw them into the Ukrainian hell. They will get slaughtered. I think war will end when Putin dies, and there is a change in gov. to a more moderate one. or Russia goes down into revolution civil war. After the war , I see political and economic chaos for Russia, a Russian civil war , the Chechens declaring independence and declaring a Emirates of the Caucasus. maybe invading Daghestan, Chinese will take advantage of this and support certain factions in the Russian gov. and former Russian repbulics in the Far East with the aim to influence control Russian Siberia, Russian Far East and Central Asia and possibly the Caucasus. China will try to control the Russian economy and gov. probably support the Russian nationalists anti USA west factions in the civil war, USA and EU and NATO supports the pro decmocracy forces in the Russian civil war. Belarus overthrows Lukashenko and becomes democratic. Ukraine regains all of its lost territory including the Crimea. Moldova and Georgia regain their seperatist ex. Russian protectorates. Not surprised a joint Moldovan and Ukrainian invasion of Tranistria during the civil war. The Russian civil war will be extremely bloody.
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Im thinking Nasdaq 100 crashes to 4K pts. BTC to 5K USD. the trigger, escalation of the Ukraine war to near WW3 levels. like After winter and early spring of 2022-2023 where if the Russian winter gambit of the Russians turning off the gas taps of the Europeans in what I think is some of hte most coldest winters in history in Europe and heavilly damaging the German economy. Despite political disruption in the EU mainly among the Hungarians, Italians Spanish, the French , NATO wills stand firm in their support for hte Ukrainians , and Putin's only card to play now in the face of possible Russian defeat in Ukraine, with the Ukrainians recapturing significant amoutn of territory from the Russians in the south, a Russian counteroffensive being defeated due to poor logistics and incomopetence , the worsening state of the Russian economy along with the war in Ukraine turning out to be unwinnable. Just leaves Putin with his last card to play which is escalation to near WW3 with NATO to scare the Europeans and the USA into pressuring hte Ukrainians to accept Russian peace terms. and possibly the Russians use chemical weapons in Ukraine just to prove a point, probably to stop a Ukrainian offensive. and saying they have a right to use it on Russian territory aas they have officially annexed all of their occupied territories. The fears of WW3 or hey even worse the use of a single low yield tacitcal nuke by the Russians to prove a point but they advertise it as a rogue Russian soldier used it but Putin implies not to push him more. Just to force the Ukrainians into negotiations. The use of a nuke however small, will totally panic the markets , panic sell like it was 2000 dot.com bubble burst. panic selling in the markets across the board causing crashes across the board in all markets, The USA will probably to QE and lower interest rates to try to stop the crash . As well as panic across the world with supermarkets being panic bought which dwarfs the Covid panic of 2020. I think this esclation occurs sometime around the summer of 2023.
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After this war is over even if you get a Putin regime survival and Putin keeping 25 percent of Ukraine which means all of the Donbass and what he currently has. the Russian military and economy will be so weakened and Putin political position also become more fragile that I dont think he will have another go in 4 years , I think maybe 20 years is more like it. I think by the time they have negotiations Russia will have lost os much militarilly that the Russian military will be a shadow of its pre war self. the Russian economy will still be under sanctions and probably in depression or near collapse and as for Putin political standing, he will try to sell that he conquered 25 percent of Ukraine, albeit totally devastated, infrastructure destroyed, massive depopuluation , farmland heavilly damaged. and hundreds of billions of USD to rebuild along wtih full deployment of the Russian military in order to pacify it. which I dont think the Russian economy by end of hte war can manage. and Putin will have a very hard time selling his so called "victory" to the Russian people taking a destroyed 25 percent of Ukrane at the cost of 1 million Russian casualties(several hundred thousnd dead) , massive loss of Russian prestige, and a nearly dead economy. and loss of relations with teh west. I think whether Russia wins or loses this war , Putin will be gone, "winning" this war will just extend the Putin regime to one year to a few years of life. As for successors to the Putin regime I dont think they will want to continue the conflict in one form or another. heck with the amount of PMCs private armies being formed by oligarchs and political leaders lately, without central gov control, this might result in civil war for succession . and from there things will spiral out of control fo Russia. The new Russian gov or whatever takes control of Moscow and St. Petersburg and claims its the rightful Russian gov. will need support and finances from outside sources and the West and China will be happy to oblige. of course with certain concessions. like returning conquered Ukrainian lands , a formal peace treaty and allowance of Ukraine to join EU and NATO and repatriation of Russian war criminals. in return for financial support and removal of sanctions.
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Russians civilians who are naive about this war, who do not want to know or who dont know how bad is it for Russian soldiers at the front, when the war is over and these guys come back in massive numbers, the shit will hit the fan, they will experience first hand , they will get a taste on teh brutality of teh Ukraine war, they will experience it in very violent crime waves. Heck not surprised in the disorder these guys will use their skills to gain power, in local areas, become warlords and become the law in Russia esp. in the countryside as law and order collapses . This will also illicit millions of Russian refugees to flood Europe, and among those refugees will be Russian veterans, Im not surpirsed if they also contribute to high crime rates in Europe and other neighbouring nations to Russia. Im not surprised if a sizable number of these vets opt to refugee to the EU. and claim to be political victims. Also they will cause disorder in Ukraine as many will probably not leave and try to blend in with the local populations , the Ukrainians will probably brutalize them too. It will be a mess.
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Yes I think 2024 is a very important year for both sides of the war since its the USA 2024 presidential elections and I think its pivotal to determining the final outcome of this war, and Putin will do everything to get trump or someone like him to win the elections and cut off aid to UKraine, and force Ukraine to an armistice. So yah expect this war to get a lot worse in 2024 as Putin has his back to the wall. and getting very desperate so his regime survives and he does not fall out of a window. So yah Putin will probably do: 1. Full mobilization, and go to total war footing as PUtin has nothing to lose and very desperate. 2. Escalate the confrontation between Russia and NATO to the point of near war status, to scare US voters to vote for a pro peace candidate. also crash the markets and put the US economy into recession. Putin and the Russian elites will be watching the events of the 2024 USA elections and the results will have a pivotal impact on the war. If Trump (or someone like him) wins, war ends in 2025 or 2026 with an armistice with Russia with the Russians keeping whatever they won in Ukraine. Putin will spin this as a victory and his regime survives. or if Biden wins war ends in 2025 or 2026, USA further increases aid to Ukraine maybe even more sanctions on Russia, Russia may try all out desperate offensives to try to inflict as much damage on the Ukrainians and dig in again for the 2028 US elections. but I think the Russian economy cannot take the strain of 4 more years of the war anymore, Russian economists forecast that the Russian economy can last until 2025 or 2026 before it starts faltering badly. and military analysts forecast that Russia will have tank and APC shortages by 2026, judging by the rate of loss of Russian tanks and APCs in the war. Russian elites will probably move to oust Putin and his clique from power in order to save as much of their economy as possible stop the war , remove sanctions and move to much better relations with the west, and probablyi order a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including the crimea. Russians will cut their losses.
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My portfolio goes: 20 percent SOL, 10 percent ea. of XRP, DOGE, MAT, AVAX, LUNA, ENJ, SHIBA, ten percent is the rest KDA, VRA, SAND, ETH, BNB, GODS, SPS, DEC.
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The Ukraine war is in an interesting stalemate situation right now: The Ukrainians have a bad artilllery ammo shortage right and is slated to get critical by June 2024, however they are on the defensive in good positions with the big towns in the Donbass still heavilly fortified, and have good motivation, and quality troops. The Russians on the other hand have a good firepwoer advantage firing 10K arty shells a day (compared to 1K arty shells fromthe Ukrainians), lots of usage of glide bombs. also have a numerical advantage in tanks APCs and men to throw atr the Ukrainians however half the Russian arty shells are defective and effectively duds, the North Koreans sold hte Russians 1.5 milion arty shells but most were made in the 70s to 90s. poor quality already and poorly stored. about 50 percent are duds. Russian glide bombs many dont hit their targets since they are launched from extreme ranges sicne the Russian pilots are scared of getting shot down by Ukrainian SAMs. Russian troop quality sucks, also 1K Russian troops are dying everyday. and many more wounded. Russian trianing and motivation sucks bad. The Russians are mobilizing about 10K men a month. but 1K are dying every day . the Russians may have numerical advantage but they will be running out of men soon. if this keeps up. The Russians are taking territory for very high casualties. also the Russians are lsoing an ungodly number of tanks and APCs. Russians stocks are massive but its finite and with the current rate of Russian tank and APC losses , the Russians are slated to have a tank and APC shortage by 2026. Also since RUssian medical on average sucks, many of the Russians who are wounded die of their wounds that is not treated in a timely manner. the Russians nomrally do medevac by vans or APCs/tanks who are good targets for Ukrainains drones artillery and ATGMs. Meanwhile Ukrainians get very good battelfield medical, good supply of medical equipment and medicines, timely medevac even to NATO hospitals outside Ukraine. Now im thinking if Biden wins this year 2024. and the Dems sweep the house and senate, holy crap, the shit will hit the fan int he Kremlin. Imagine, USA aid to Ukraine massively increasing. The Russians will be in a world of pain in 2025 and 2026. as the Ukraine aid goes to 100 billion USD> in 2025. So with the Russian economy degrading badly starting 2025 with their wealth fund running out, their currency hyperinflating, Russian economy turning into Venezuela 2.0. meanwhile Ukrainians winning major victories at the front. PUtin will be in the shit. I can see the elites removing Putin by 2026 or 2027. and having a withdrawal deal from Ukraine in order to save what is left of the Russian economy. from total collapse.
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Actually current Russian oil prices are 72 USD per barrell. Now Russia has been selling at a discount to other countries esp. China and India at 20 percent or even rumored 30 percent discount. so the real price Russia is selling the oil at is around 50 to 57 USD, Russia needs the oil price to be 30 USD just to break even , pay for the operational costs to pump the oil from the ground. I predict due to the coming world economic recession depression, oil prices will crash to around 30 USD in 2024. This will be disastrous for the Russian economy. esp. if the Europeans and their allies cap Russian oil prices at 30 USD. and China and India will still want their 20 to 30 percent discounts. that is economic, now we go on to political, USA pres. elections are going to be in 2024. If a US pres. wins the elections will continue the Biden admin's policy on ukraine or even double down on it. well there goes your political part of the triangle. I think the war will still continue on into 2024. as Putin will see this as his last trump card to play. (haha see that analogy with Trump). Im not surprised Russia will really meddle into the US elections. even overtly doing so out of desperation. I think if Putin sees a US pres. winning who will continue with teh sanctions and aid to Ukraine then Putin will really get desperate in 2024, so you hae the collapse of the Political and Economic part of hte triangle in 2024. Putin will get super desperate by late 2024. and I am not surprised you will see an esclation of the conflict in late 2024 or in 2025. as Putin fights for regime survival. by this time. I predict, Russian economy is in near collapse massive unrests sweeping Russia even armed insurrection in parts of Russia. and political fractionalism. as his rivals come out and openly speak out against his policies in the war. and seeing the mobilizations not working, faced with a collapsing economy and widespread unrest, Putin will order the use of WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons on the battlefielid. then tactical nukes . Im not surprised if Putin gets deposed by his military if he orders the use of nukes. In this scenario I can see the war ending in 2025 with a military/oligarch junta taking over after deposing Putin and his inner circle. and calling for negotiations withdrawal from Ukraine. I preditct the withdrawal wil be messy and chaotic and not surprised if the Russian army in Ukraine turns into a disorganized mob. every man for himself. In the next years, Russia will really be unstable and a civil war of sorts will occur.
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yes the Russians have a good abilityto rotate their reserves and resources all over the place, since these areas have good concentration of rail lines and Russians rely on railways and trains to move their units and supplies around, then again, it cost the Russians great deal in supplies logitics resources to do so. Ukrs can do the same thing but more efficiently. Again main problem is Russian logistics which is still sub par, preety bad, as the Ukrs are hitting them very hard. Russian can only launch small offensives since their logistics cannot support big breakthrus, the Russian tried one at Kupiansk back from July 19 to 26, 2023 and managed to tear a 8 KM hole in Ukr lines but due to supply shortages since the Ukrs were hitting Russian trains rail lines and truck convoys with missles and JDAMs , the Russians were not able to exploit it, and the Uukrs managed to plug the hole and drive the Russians back. that is why at Kupiansk, the Ukrs are holding off a much bigger Russian force(2X more) since the Russians are attacking up hill with supply shortages. entrenched Ukrs, the only response the Russian can do is artillery bombardment which the Russians are doing a lot . You dont get that one in the southern front , in this one the Ukrs have artillery superiority, due to Russian artillery ammo shortage and Russian artillery ammo being sent to the Kharkov front. and where is the Russian air support in all this, reportly they are not making much of a differences and not really around, wonder why??? maybe Russian air force is over worked, overused poor maintenance lack of spare parts. and pilots fear of getting shot down. Wonder why the Russians are not brining out their Mig-23, 27s, 21s out of storage hahahahah. they already brought out their T-62s and 55s out of storage. They built about 5K Mig-23s 1K Mig-27s and 11500 mig-21s , maybe its because the Mig-23s and 27s are so awful to use they have to keep them in storage and the 21s are so badly stored you cant fly them haahahah.
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well look at it this way, you are not fighting a direct war with Russia no one except the Ukrainians are fighting a direct war with Russia, the Brits , Americans, Canadians etc. are supporting Ukraine in fighting Russia so that Russia is sufficiently weakened enough that it cant threaten its neighbours in the future esp. NATO. ...do you have brits dying in Ukraine...NOPE....Ukrainians are dying for you. so you dont have to fight in the future, yah Russians always sabre rattles yada yada yada, but does not really do anything. multiple red lines crossed Russia does not do anything. Heck I read bob woodwards book war and the Russians were thinking of nuking the Ukrainains in late 2022 after the Ukrainians retook large parts of their lost territories , the USA found out and threatened war, the Russians backed down. the Russians are desperate, 85 percent of their standing army is stuck trying to win the war vs. the Ukrainians , and as for hitting Russian soil with missles this has to be done to disrupt Russian logistics and command and control, the Ukrainians are not hitting Russian cities, civilians, they are hitting military targets or infrastructure vital to the Russian war effort and hey the Ukrainans have already been doing this for a while now with their own drones and missles and the Russians have not been able to deal with it. Russians are desperate so desperate they had to call the North Koreans for help. Putin does not want war with NATO since he knows he will lose.
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the longer Russia is in the war in Ukraine the more its economy is kaput, and the full force of the Russian economic breakdown and tsunami will hit after or near the end of the war. Currently its estimated the Russians only have 40 billion USD in their war fund and it costs 500 mil USD and 1 billion USD per day or even more just to maintain their military forces in Ukraine. and that is just the maintenance, and it cost much more money to build more weapons to refurbish their mothballed weapons and buy more weapons abroad. like the Russians made 12 billion USD in oil sales in Oct 2023, that is 12 days of maintenance. which is a drop in the bucket. and that is the Russians main money maker. The Russians are bleeding a lot of money not only maintaining their military but also trying to prevent their currency going into hyperinflation and doing price controls. on food. Only a matter of time like starting in 2025(or even in 2024) when the Russians are not able to properly fund the war, which causes hyperinflation , out of control food prices, Russian military not performing well, with breakdowns in logistics, armmo shortages etc. So the real battlefield is the Russian economy, and as I said the longer Russia in the war, the more it dies. and a Biden win in 2024 means a big uptick in support for Ukraine in the war, and massive shockwaves in the Kremlin giving strength to pro Peace factions in the Russian gov and mlitary and a great weakening of Putins political strength and grip on power. I think if faced with a catastrophic collapse of their economy , and out of control hyperinflation, the Russian elites will cut hteir losses and depose Putin and begin negotiations to get out of the war, like how much of Ukraine they will withdraw from in exchange for lifting of all sanctions on Russia, normalized relations with the west, Russian acceptance of Ukrainian NATO and EU membership also possibly economic aid to soften the economic landing of the RUssian economy after the war, and the Russians will be negotiating with weakness. with the USA and Ukraine having the upper hand. I think the Russians in the end with completely withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea. And despite econoimc aid to Russia, the economic landing for Russia post war will be hard. but the Russian gov will be stable more or less.
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What does Canada think of the USA: violent, lots of crime, too religious, poor public transportation, rich but lots of poor, hockey rival, crazy, sorry we are not the same, expensive medical, good paying jobs, our best trading partner, our protector. lots of racism,
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Me I have been using binance since 2017. Never had a problem. I personally have used the following exchanges: NDAX, Bitbuy, Quadriga CX, Coinbase , FTX, Lbank, Kucoin, Bitrue, The only problem I had was Lbank, , took my solana transaction back in 2021 12 hours to clear.
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PUtin will soon be terminal ill near the end or after the war is over. Let's say the ceasefire happens in 2023 with Russia still in control of around 10-20 percent of Ukraine. It will still be viewed as a failure by the Russian leadership and high command, Putin will ballyhoo this as a success, like losing 100K or 200K casualties after more than a year of war, losing thousands of military vehicles, hundreds of planes, a collapsed economy with severe sanctions still on, possibly collapsed oil prices, a pariah state where no one really wants to invest in. a collapsed arms sales as Russian weapons looked bad in this war, Russia will have to massively sell its weapons at discounted prices, and a bottomed out prestige where the Russian military is looked as a third rate incompetent power. and a NATO that has its unity strengthened by Russian aggression. While Putin and his cronies will advertise this war as a victory the Russians and most oligarchs will view this one as a defeat. Putin may survive the war but his days are numbered. with Russian economy and military and influence severely weakened. I think Putin will consolidate his armed forces, try to build it up again for another possible go at Ukraine. Ukraine will rebuild, with a view on rebuilding its armed forces. to take on the Russians again in a future conflict. Putin may actually die shortly after this war is over due to anger due to the poor handling of this war and fear that Putin may do a major purge of the Russian armed forces and oligarchy, and there will be a power struggle to see who takes over later but I can see a military junta taking over from Putin and the Junta and oligarchs picking a Russian leader that they can control, no more strong man Putin like leaders. Possibly someone like Medvedev as Pres. heck they might even pick Navalny to have good ties with the west.
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yah ive heard of stories of Russian IT guys, university graduates who were unlucky enough to be mobilized in late 2022, well most of them became casualites with a 50 percent death rate, they probably found out the smart educated Russians dont make for good soldiers compared to the criminals and working class. many smart educated russians already ran away from Russia. and the ones left are probably in hiding, paid off the recruiters or faking invalidation. The blue collar working class Russians and lower class unemployed they not stupid either, they saw how shit the war in Ukraine is , even if they get recruited their chances of survival are somewhat higher than Storm Z meat units. In Russian tactics, Storm Z goes up front first, followed by Russian mobiks, followed by regular army , then by their elite units.
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I have a feeling the Russians are trying to regroup and reinforce and advance and encircle Kiev which is its all a mess. Command control logsitics intel all across the board failures for the Russians complete mickey mouse mismanagement of Russian operations which would make Donald Duck proud. Heck the Russian army performance is so bad, the Polish army could itself defeat the Russian army sans nukes. its that bad. Kiev however is the key. the Ukrainians are doing mobile infantry guerilla conventiional ambushes and hit and run with drone sat coordinated artillery and the latest NATO ATGMs top attack at theat. Russians inflexible mech road bound frontal attacks with little imagination. Ukrs well motivated , well coordinated , well trained , good leadership, good tactics, know their area. Russians, poorly motivated, poorly coordinated, poorly trained, poor leadership, inflexible no imagination frontal assault tactics, attacking dont know the area, with compromised comms and poor intel on Ukr unit dispositions, a shit show disaster for the RUssians, and I have a suspicion when or if the RUsians ever reach Kiev to do a proper siege, they would be lured in by the Ukrs defenders, getting bloodilly bogged down in street to street fighting, while the Ukrs do hit and run on Russian logistics then trap the besieging RUssians just like a remake of Stalingrad . Yah Kiev Stalingrad of the Dniepr 2.0
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shoigu has massive influence in the Kremlin, Shoigu has been there for a LONG time, a decade before Putin came to power Shoigu held a Russian ministry post, Shoigu is a Putin man. Putin has been micromanaging this war right down to the Brigade level. and SHoigu is the fall guy, so I dont think Putin will replace Shoigu since many of the military blunders in this war is attributed to Putin , Shoigu and Garasimov both fall guys . So Prigozhin is just a show. I tihnk the Russian leadership main goal is to hang on until the west gets tired and a negotiated peace happens where Russia gets to keep well at least ten percent of Ukraine. Then Putin will spin this as a victory. in the meantime, the Russians will use as many of their Russian recruits to die for them to keep the Ukrainians at bay. The Russians will probably do offensives in order to weaken Ukrainian offensive capabilities and to forestall Ukrainian offensives , otherwise its all defensive that is why the Russians have been building a lot of defensive works in the occupied areas. I think Putin will have all his eggs on the 2024 USA presidential elections. and do everything to influence it so Pro Peace Pres. candidates can win the elections. I think the war will end in 2025 if a Pro Peace USA pres. takes power in the white house. While I think the war will end in 2026 if a Pro Ukraine Pres. gets elected to the white house. I think with a Pro Peace USA pres. like Trump. will pressure Ukraine to have a peace treaty armistice with Russia and threaten to cut off all aid. then take all the glory is promoting a peace plan for Russia and Ukraine. Probably lift a lot of the sanctions from Russia. but again due to bureaucratic resistance many of the sanctions will remain. If a Pro Ukraine pres. is elected, USA and her allies will increase aid to Ukraine , maybe even double down. and Putin's hold on power will become significantly weaker. and Putin gets a lot more desperate. So him and the oligarchs believe that the war cant go on for longer , cant be won, and I think by 2025, the Russian economy is so bad, that the Russian citizens feel it even in Moscow. in the form of very high food and fuel prices. very high inflation rates. Also the Ukrainians probably dealt the Russia a bunch of major defeats in 2023-2024. and probably retaken large parts and probablyi knocking on Crimea's door. retaken Luhansk and Donetsk. Whatever the Russian have occupied in 2025, is Crimiea and a portion of South eastern Ukraine not enough for Putin to spin for a victory and the Russians probably lost like 750K to 1 million casualties. with a much stronger Ukrainian army, while the Russian army has devolved badly and the largest number of tanks are T-62s and 55s. Putin's grip on power is a lot weaker and Russian media is very outspoken vs. Putin and calls for him to step down are loud. lot of unrest in Russia. By 2025, the Ukrs have driven the Russians to near 2022 pre war borders. The Russian army while huge does not have real offensive capabilities to push back the Ukrainians significantly . The Russians cannot mobilize more since unrest in Russia has become widespread. attempts at moiblization are met with protests and rebellion. recruitment officers and offices are attacked . And the Ukrainians are preparrng the final offensive to retake Crimea, and Putin is threatening the use of nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian troops set foot in the crimea.
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why??? cause the coup was Russian supported and Burkina Faso and Mali are well supported by Russia, if they go to war with ECOWAS, their the Niger , Mali and Burkina Faso militaries are shit,, so is ECOWAS but combined esp. with Nigeria they have much stronger military force , also with French , UK , USA support in teh background. This is a sideshow distraction by Russia, if Russia loses this war, there will be a power shift in Africa back towards the west. The current chairman of ECOWAS is Nigerian and Nigeria is very much wary of Russian influence in Africa and west Africa in general and at the same time wants to unseat South Africa as the leader of the African world. and knows Russia is faltering in the war and positioning itself. Also Nigeria sent its VP to the summit in st. petersburg but not the pres. himself. Nigeria does not want to piss off the west but still wants to maintain good relations with Russia and China. but again hedging their bets. for both sides.
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my view is that in the face of a defeat in Ukraine, you have hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in Ukraine going back to Russia, these troops are very angry at the Russian gov. since their army treated them badly in the field, low supplies, their friends dying due to poor Russian leadership, probably not paid, probably psychotic , experience in killing people. , have good experience in using military weapons. many of these troops come from Russian republics which historically have been rebellious to Moscow, they go back to a Russia that discriminates them for not being a white Russian, being poor, and for losing the war. these soldiers will be blamed by Russians for losing the war. and worse yet, not even paid for their time in Ukraine. just like in the first chechen war, many Russian soldiers were abandoned many were not even paid. going back to a economically depressed Russia with political and economic chaos, with civil unrest and disorder . Yep wonder what those hundreds of thousands of pyschologically shell shocked angry former Russian soldiers will do. Then that will be the Russian civil war.
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yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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yah lets see start of the war Russia which has 10X the economy of Ukraine, 10X the military spending than Ukraine, 10X the military of ukraine, attacks with a surprise attack on Ukraine, takes 40 percent of Ukraine in the first few months of the war, utterly fails in knocking out the Kiev Gov instead the Ukrainians fight back hard, and in 1 year took back 50 percent of the territory that the Russians conquered. inflicintg 200 to 250K casualties on the Russians, several thousands captured or destroyed armoured vehicles a few hundred destroyed planes and destroying Russian military prestige, the Russian troops and officers look like incompetents with poor morale training and leadership. with poor logistics, the Russian tank farming tractor memes made the Russian military look like laughingstocks. and Russian propoganda has increasingly become very comical, brutal, and heinous. Putin at the start of the war to mid 2022 promised not to mobilize now putin has blatantly mobilized hundreds of thousands of Russian and caused the largest Russian refugee diaspora since the 90s. with millions of Russians running away from the country. Russia is very much looked down upon in the world community with UN resolutions against Russia becoming successful and OSCE delagations walking during Russian delegation speeches. That is how low Russian international prestige is. and meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting stronger getting better weapons. while the Russian army has devolved to a WW1 style army. HOW EMBARASSING RUSSIA
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interesting that the PH would do this so looks like they have intel that Xi Putin wannabe Jinping might be planning a Taiwan attack soon. Stupid fro China to do this but if they have a putin wannabe suicidal leader well....not surprised, the Chinese leadership should have learned how the Japanese in WW2 got their asses kicked bad by the USA, doing pearl Harbour on the strongest miltiary power on earth is suicidal. esp. when the USA military spends 10X more than that of China every year. And note in WW2, the USA fought both Germany and Japan at the same time. while sending lend lease to Great Britain USSR and China. if this is actually WW3 , well the Axis are: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran. . , the Allies are: USA, NATO, UK, France, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea. Australia, New Zealand, Israel. and if it parallels WW2, you might have the Chinese attack US bases int he pacific and Taiwan on Dec 2024.
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a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive
Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps
Russian Order of battle:
2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X.
Ukrainian Order of battle:
13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X.
aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk.
Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster.
also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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Post war, post putin after Russia loses this war, and all the atrocities Russia committed in Ukraine, the Europeans will really have a bad look at Russians, in fact, they will minimize buying energy from the Russians, minimize invsting in Russia, Russia becomes a pariah state, and shift their investments massively to Ukraine. to rebuilding and developing Ukraine, developing its energy resources to be a replacement for Russia, the EU will demand the Russians not only give back all Ukr land going back to 2013 borders. give back the crimea, and give up all the wanted Russian war criminals civilian and military for war crimes trial at the Hague. a democratically elected gov in Moscow. other than that RUssia will be a pariah state sliding to the 3rd world. and probably in a decade losing 50 percent of its territory to secessionists.
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well I think Merkel and the west underestimated Putin a lot, and Putin was quite expert at political maneuvering however he got too greedy with Ukraine, and the west trapped him here, now the war in Ukraine is an existential threat for Putin, I think Putin will fight it out to the end in Ukraine, however I dont think he will use nukes to win , doing so will also be a loss for him. in fact there is a good chance of war with NATO and at the very least total economic sanctions on Russia, which crashes the Russian economy hard and massively increased aid to Ukraine, and his own people not following his orders and instead overthrowing him. So Putin's last option is to fight it out to the end and hope that Western aid to Ukraine stops and they force Ukraine to an armistice and Putin gets to keep whatever he conquered at the time of the armistice. That is why the 2024 USA elections is pivotal to teh war, If Biden or a pro Ukraine pres. wins, then Russia has 4 more years to try to hang on, which I dont think Putin can do with the way the war is going. If Trump or a Pro Peace Pres wins, then there is a good chance that aid to Ukraine stops and a armistice is quite possible leaving Russian with whatever it conquered and Putin can use this for regime survival and spin the war as a victory. Of course it really depends on the state of hte Russian army and how much of Ukraine Russia controls and the state of the Russian economy in the final outcome as to the survival of hte Putin regime. I think that even if Biden wins the USA elections of 2024, Putin will try to hang on until Ukraine pushes the Russians out of Ukraine including Crimea. and USA aid will increase exponentially after a Biden win, Russian military and economy get degraded badly . I dont think Putin will last too long after 2024. and after he is gone, well new Russian regime will have to deal with a Russian in economic collapse, bankrupt, a military in revolt, social problems, I cannot see any Russian leader after Putin who can deal with these problems and the Russian state will slide into some sort of civil war, or disorder. Also the west might drop all the sanctions in exchange of some concessions to keep the new Moscow gov stable. and probably pump in more money into Russia to keep the Russian economy from total collapse. With a bankrupt Russian state with a very weak military , I see some parts of Russia seceding and becoming independent countries however I think the Russian fed will keep it together mostly since most parts of Russia have big Russian ethnic majorities. however due to a weak military economy , law and order will be a problem and western investments will be slow to return to Russia and this will result in high crime rates, the return of hte 90s with a vengeance. out of control inflation. the west will not allow a Russian president like Putin to come to power again. and will monitor Russian politics and gov very carefully and make sure its more or less democratic.
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I think Prigozhin may be the mouth piece of Putin to put a torch up the asses of the Russian army leaders to shape up or else, Putin cant act directly against the Russian army leadership, I dont think Putin has total control over Russia in fact in some areas, like the military and oligarchy he has limited power, I dont think Putin has full control of the FSB either. And Prigozhin seems to be allowed to say the shit he is saying , any other Russian says the shit he is saying, they would be arrested tortured, disappeared permanently. so the Prigozhin may well be protected by Putin himself. in fact, Prigozhin serves as a gadfly to the military by Putin. And later Putin can use prigozhin as a perfect foil in order to survive politically to ready the Russian people in case Russia has to withdraw from Ukraine and a major Russian defeat in the war. With this, I think Putin will use Prigozhin, probably Igor Girkin too who I think is also one of Putin's mouthpieces to say that he was duped by his own people and use that as a pretext to withdraw from Ukraine back to pre 2022 war status. In fact I think Putin will wait until the results of the USA 2024 presidential elections, with the first important milestone being the 2024 Rep party Presidential primaries from Feb to June 2024. If a US pres. is elected who still supports Ukraine in NOv 2024, I think Putin will throw the towel in 2025. seeing that if the war continues for another 4 years his regime might go kaput. In this scenario, I think PUtin will order a withdrawal back to pre 2022 war status quo. Blame a bunch of ministers, military , FSB, oligarchs for duping him in invading Ukraine and having them purged. Then he will come out and blame them for being deceived and say he was the victim all the while tightening his grip on power simlair to what Saddam did after Iraq's defeat in the Kuwait in 91. Putin will seek reapproachment with Ukraine and the west. but this will fail as the west will demand he step down, democratic elections, withdrawal back to 90s borders, and war criminals extridited for trial at the Hague, in return for lifting of all sanctons and business as usual and possible financial aid. Putin does not want to be a Chinese bitch and wants good relations with the west to balance it out.
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hahahah, I think this is going to be very bad for Putin and Russia, Trump may end up putting strong sanctions on Russia, doing the drill baby drill to crash the price of oil then supplying Ukraine with even more weapons. very amusing. Trump smells weakness in Putin and Russia, Putin totally overplayed his hand and Trump knows the Emperor has no clothes. so Trump will do as Trump does in negotiations and deals where he has the upper hand, and I think Ukraine is very important to him as Ukraine in the post war reconstruction of its economy and infrastructure will be very very valuable to him as hundreds of billions of USD flows into Ukraine from the USA and the EU and its allies. and Trump specializes in real estate and construction, Ukraine will be a very lucrative market esp. as its economy booms post war.
In comparison Russia will be a mess post war, yes they have a massive market but it will be very limited due to political economic and social instability post war compared to a booming and stable Ukraine much easier to make money from a boomng and stable country Ukraine than a unstable country Russia. Also the western investments are not going to flow back to Russia but go to Ukraine instead.
War will probalby end with a Korean war style armistice with thousands of UN and NATO troops occupying Ukraine but a much weakened Russia. holding on to whatever territory. it holds. Due to Putin intransigence and unreasonable pre negotiation demands, I think he will lose his current upper hand, and extend the war which is not good for Russia as its economy starts falling apart in 2026. The kicker here, is that while Ukraine is not going to be accepted in NATO and teh EU for now, Ukraine practically becomes a NATO protectorate with a booming economy and a rapidly reforming mlitary along NATO lines with a vengeful anti Russia policy. Russia in the meantime, will be suffering from hyperinflation, economic depression, and political and social instability. with the war over, the oligarchs and elites now turn on Putin and there is a political conflict between the oligarchs and Putin.Oligarchs and elites blame Putin for the predicament Russia is in while Putin tries to hold on to power. Meanwhile Russia is unstable with rising food prices hyperinflation, thousands of Russia war veterans returning home and causing very high crime rates, Russians have the feeling their country is falling apart. LIke the 90s came back again, esp. after Putin is gone, the 90s will come back with a vengeance on steroids all the while you have the Chinese taking over the Russian economy, a weak post pUtin Russian gov controlled by the elites and oligarchs who have their own strong private armies. plus strong corruption now uncontrolled due to a weak Russian gov. with the USA and China influencing political factions and elites. Russia has become a massive failed state. just primed to blow up. millions flee for other countries.
Meanwhile while Russia is prostrate ith its problems in the decade following the end of the war, the Ukrainians have rebuilt their economy and infrastructure much prosperous and better than before the war started in 2014. with a Ukrainian military the strongest it has been and looking to recover its lost territories back and exact vengeance on the Russians. Also Ukraine has been fanning the flames of instabilty in Russia by supporting Anti Russian gov groups , secessionists etc. esp. anti Russia partisans in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine. Meanwhile the Russian army is a mess. many of its recruits joined the private armies of the oligarchs and elites, and the Russian army in the occupied areas while massive are a mess. underarmed, poorly paid. lots of corruption , drug abuse, alcoholism etc. and hated by the locals. Ukraine has built up a extensive network of resistance in the occupied areas and will be sprung up when the time is right.
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i highly doubt the NKs will change its tactics anytime soon, since knoing the mentality of Koreans in general esp. the North Koreans, they are very rote oriented, in terms of learning education. not flexible when dealing with the unexpected. when that happens they go back to their training rather than improvising on the siutation, the NK command and control is very centralized and rigid even more so than the Russians, everything is followed to the letter. and NK officers are very rigid and are not flexible do no improvise. However what NK troops got going for them are that they are very disciplined, much more so than the Russians. , probably better trained(compulsory military training), however these guys are from a country that is very much isolated from the world, told that they are the best country in the world brainwashed to think that way and they know better than the Russians and anyone else, and are shocked when they find out and very much outclassed by the Ukrainians. and when that happens they dont know how to deal with it except fall back on their training. and since they dont surrender and fight to the death , for the Russians they make the perfect cannon fodder.
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well having lived in Manila, Philippines from 1971 to 1993 and I think nothing changed much these are the bad of the PH: 1. Corruption, gotta pay off the cops , and even airport customs and I think its shit to have an exit tax where you have to pay to leave the Philippines, total scam. 2. traffic sucks bad, back then traffic was like 2 hours, now I hear its 4 hours. 3. Pollution sucks bad, yah try to swim the pasig river in the PH and get free botulism. open sewers, chest deep flooding during the typhoon season. 4. Hygene sucks, gotta boil drinking water, and these days I hear that is not enough , you have to drink bottled water. 5. Expensive restos in manila, yah you can get cheapo restaurants in Manila, but its dirty, good chance you can get food poisoning in those restos and the area where the cheapo resto is can be dangerous. Meanwhile its the relatively safe , upper class areas where you can get safe good quality food western standards the prices are 1st world prices. 6 . Law and order sucks in many places in Manila. can be dangerous esp. for tourists. or the locals feel you come from the upper class.
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So due to pure incompetence, poor combat doctrine and command and control the Russians have allowed a smaller less powerful military force , the Ukrainians , to stalemate and bloody the nose of the Russians who have 10X the GDP of Ukraine, 10X the artillery and air , tank firepower compared to Ukraine 3X the population compared to Ukraine , yet Ukraine has held them off and stalemated the Russians, the Russians should have won quickly, but in 2.5 years of war have lost massively only controls 20 percent of Ukraine, and using unimaginative meat wave tactics straight out of WW1. have to beg the North koreans for artillery ammo , missles and troops. getting its oil refiniries and ammo dumps bombed successfully, have to rely on convicts and foreign volunteers to continue to fight the war. I dont think the Russians are winning here and the Ukrainians have performed above and beyond expectations. Back at the start of the war, pundits were saying Ukraine would not even last past 2022, heck Russians said Ukraine would not last 3 days to 3 weeks. NOw 2.5 years later , Ukraine is still fighting back hard and inflicting losses on the Russians not seen since WW2. I think while its a stalemate, Ukraine can win.
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well if you say back foot, Russia from Jan 1 2024 to Jan 1 2025 has taken an area of Ukraine the size of Luxembourg while suffering 400K casualties, and the Ukrainians have not collapsed, menawhile the Russians are buying lots of arty ammo and missles from NOrth Korea and 60 percent of Russian arty ammo and 30 percent of their missles come from North Korea and Kursk 5 months already and the Russians have not kicked out the Ukrainians suffering 40K casualties and begged the North koreans for help. ..along with the Ukrainains drone bombing Russian oil refiniries, ammo dumps etc. with the Russian air defenses not being able to do anything about it speaks volumes,,,,,,yah the Russians gained ground still controlling 20 percent of Ukraine while suffering all that, yep I can say Russia is sort of in a back foot.
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Well as for the Chinese, I think they will trade with Germany and the USA , the Chinese KMT have been on friendly terms with the Nazis even the Germans supported the Japanese, during the 1937-1945 war, the Germans were acting as diplomatic middle men between the KMT and the Japanese and the Germans were selling weapons to the KMT , also Chiang Kai Shek much admired the Germans. In this timeline since no German declaration of war with the USA, KMT China also does not declare war on Germany. Both the KMT and Germany still maintain friendly relations throughout the war, the KMT defeats the warlords and integrates them into the KMT and exterminates the CHinese commies. in the subsequent Chinese civil war 1946-1949 phase or aka pacification of the warlords and communists era, after the Japanese surrender. The Chinese communists. The KMT Chinese are also friendly with the USSR. The USSR massively helped the KMT Chinese with large amounts of volunteers, advisors and weapons from 1937-1941 to fight Japan. This has not been forgotten. China in this timeline since the mid to late 50s becomes the workshop of the world for both Germany and the USA, with the CHinese under a authoritarian KMT party providing to what China is providing now for foreign corporations. Cheap place to manufacture goods. By 2021 China is the 3rd largest economy in the world, with a dynamic capitalist economy and a authoritarian KMT one party gov. which seems to change leaders every 4 years since the 80s after the death of CHiang Kai Shek's son Chiang Ching Kuo. standards of living for the average Chinese rival that of the USA. China has close economic ties with Germany and the USA and on friendly political terms with both. also on friendly terms with the USSR and serves as a trade window and middle man with the rest of hte world to that closed state. China also has strong influence with its Asian neighbours esp. Korea which is practically a Chinese puppet state dependency dominated by Chinese corporations. In this timeline China does not invade TIbet but its independent gov. is strongly influenced by the Chinese.
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yah and the Russians blowing up the dam means its scared to shit of the Ukrainian offensive. Last year 2022 the Russians were talking down to UKraine about how weak their military was and how they can win in two weeks. hahaha, now 1.5 years later, the Russians are talking about how fearful they are of the Ukrainian offensive, wow how so much has changed ever since. big signs that Russia is losing their war, Ukrainians recaptured 50 percent of the territory they lost, Russians defeated at Kiev , Kherson, Izyum, Kharkov, with a current casually estimate of 250K , worst since ww2 and more casualties than all the wars after WW2 combined. You only blow a dam in order to prevent a major offensive by a strong enemy. Ukranians did it in 2022 when they blew up a dam in Northern Ukraine to stop a Russian offensive. KMT Chinese did it in 1937 when the blew up the dikes at the Yangze river to stop a strong Japanese offensive in Central CHina. SO here in 2023 you have the Russians doing teh same why? since the RUssians are really scared of the Ukrainians . since the Russian gov has zero confidence in their military to defend Crimea. Heck they cant even defend Belgorod and the Russian border areas from Ukr attacks, hahahaah HOW EMBARASSING RUSSIA.
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I think it will take a week or two to scrounge up enough forces for their major offensive, I expect the Russians under great pressure from Putin to up their game do a more slower careful grinding offensive centered on fire power rather than quick mobile offensives. Encircle and pocket the Ukrainians in the Donetsk, cauldron them and cut them into small pockets which can be dealt with one by one. The weather will be clear cloudy with some rain, and its getting warmer. also the ground in hte donbass is hard, open plains perfect tank country. However I dont think the Ukrainians will be playing by this playbook , suicide to fight the Russians head on. when the Russians still have numerical superiority in AFVs , air and artillery. I think the Ukrainians will take a page out of how the Chadians dealt with the Libyan army in the 80s Toyota war and with the South Africans dealing with the Angolan MPLA armies during the battle of Cuito Cunavale late 80s. basically both the Libyan and Angolans were using the SOviet mech doctrine , tank APC heavy advances with heavy air and artillery support and superiority. The ground the Chadians were fighting in was open desert terrian, the South Africans were fighting in open savanah terrain . To counter the Libyans and Angolans both the Chadians and Angolans employed mostly wheeled vehicles technicals and wheeled light tanks civlian trucks armed with ATGMs and did hit and run attacks on the LIbyan and Angolan columns. Yep, those same tactics the Ukrainians used so successfully vs. road bound Russians with ATGM ambushes and hit and run attacks can also be used in the more open plains of the Ukr south since wheeled vehicles in these open terrain with hard ground is a lot mobile and faster than tracked tanks and APCs. Yah I noticed the Russians will probably counter this with wheeled vehicles of their own manned by their elite forces. but I think this is the way to go and concentrate again on hitting Russian logistics. Ukrainians are probably holding back their tank forces in a strategic reserve and when the Russians are fully demoralized at the end of the logistical rope the knockout blow will be from the Ukrainain mech reserves. The Ukrainians will never concede the Donbass due to its importance in terms of natural resources and also national integrity. and the Ukrainians have a lot of manpower reserves they can call up, and can actually outnumber the Russians as the war drags on, along with lots of NATO military aid coming in. The Russians cannot really call up their reserves in a draft since the Russians might revolt create unrest and refuse to go to Ukr and the conscripts will be useless even worse quality than the frontline troops. so the Putin has to make do with his existing force in Ukraine. and those Ukrainian reserves that are being called up are well motivated to fight. with the latest NATO ATGMs and MANPADs.
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The Russians are paying for their military volunteers who already have combat experience( Syrians, Africans, Armenians, Central Asians and probably North Koreans). at the tune of 1500 USD per month(I dont think the Russians pay them correctly and probably stiff a lot of them). However these Russian paid Mercs while more motivated better quality than Russian conscripts. but still more meat for the meatgrinder and more costs to the Russian war effort which is costing 20 billion USD per day to the Russian economy. Not surprised the Chinese are bankrolling the Russian war effort. In my opinion the Chinese want the war in Ukraine to continue as long as possible since the longer the war goes the more the Russians are in financial debt to the Chinese. For the Chinese the real prize are the bargain basement prices of Russian and Central Asian natural resources. and Russian weapon systems and military tech know how. Not surpirsed the Chinese after the war start massive shopping of Russian subs, strategic missles, missle systems, jet engines etc. Also dont be surprised you see more Chinese made weapon systems supplies in Ukraine as well as North Korean troops, Chinese will use the North Koreans as a front to fight in Ukraine, supplying the Russians with weapons systems and equipment disguised as North Korean ones. While I still think the war will finish sometime summer this year, with Chinese financial support , it will extend maybe until fall or even winter this year.
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I agree with this guy fi Putin is backed in a corner he will order a nuke(s) be used however will the order be carried out as his underlings have assets in the west, their kids study and live in the west, a nuke use will result in total sanctions vs. Russia, like the worst sanctions ever, seizure of all Russian assets including esp. oligarch assets, not only in the west but also sanction participating countries, all countries will be given a choice to either sanction Russia or get sanctioned themselves. Russia will not only suffer economic collapse but the ones who are carrying out his nuke order will lose all their assets, abroad, their kids will be deported back to Russia. Plus support of Ukraine will massively increase, from the west, Russia effectively becomes a pariah state. So most likely he will gibve a nuke use order, and he will get overthrown because of it. and a military junta will rule Russia.
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it will be funny if the west still supports Urkaine next year 2023, and the Russians have lost a lot of men and territory, and is going to mobilize again, so what now.....Ukrs are not going to give up. and yah let's say this war ends with the Russians holding on to Donbass and southern Kherson and Crimea, so what now????, there will be another war again, in the future, Ukraine will be rearming hard training hard. and thumbing their noses at the Russians by going for NATO and EU membership. and the Russians, I dont think with that end of the war, the sanctions will not go away, current sanctions will stick until the Russians withdraw back to pre war borders.
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Yes the USA is prepared for a major war, yep I remember back in 1990 just before Desert storm they were saying the USA was not prepared for a major war, and many media pundits were harping on the prowess of the Iraqi army and how numerous and formidable they were having fought the Iran Iraq war for nearly a decade of trench warfare, the Iraqis created a lot of trenches and fortifications bunkers all over the Kuwaiti border to prepare for the US led allied Coalition to remove Iraq from Kuwait, the Iraqis thought the Americans were weak due to the aftermath of the Vietnam war and the yanks would chicken out and counted the Iraqi army which just came out of a very bloody Iran Iraq war with extensive experience in trench warfare, the Iraqis and world media thought that the Allies were not fit enough to fight thru the extensive Iraqi trenches and fortificaitons, well the Coalition did not play by Iraqs playbook and bombed the living crap out of the Iraqis and their defenses in kuwait, and when the Allied offensive began , it went around the trenches and bypassed them and engaged the now depleted shocked and weakened Iraqi mechanized forces and easilly defeated with few losses. the Iraqis int he Kuwaiti trenches and bunkers who were bypassed, later surrendered en masse after running out of supplies and many bunkers and trenches were blown up and buried. So the Russians will probably fight in a simliar way as the Iraqis, during the Kuwait war 1990-1991. NATO air forces will have air superiority over the Russians within a week , it will be a repeat of desert storm. if the Russians are stupid enough to fight NATO.
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well what is not mentioned, is to crack down hard on corruption, open up the indian economy to investors. cut down the red tape drastically lower taxes esp. on foreign investments, make it easier to do business in India, at lower cost. Also enforcement of laws on fraud, protection of business and consumers. South korea, Taiwan, Japan, China,and esp. Singapore they were able to do this. If India can do this, it will become a rival to USA and China but nope . India is in the same boat as the Philippines, lot of possibilities limited by the gov and system.
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well the reason is situational, Russian logistics suck so bad that it cannot sustain a big offensive for a long period of time, if they launch a big offensive like the one at Kupiansk starting July 19, 2023 , that one fell apart a few weeks after it started, the main reasons are: 1. Russian logistics are reliant on railways, trains, and the Russians have to truck their supplies from rail heads to the supply depots and truck them to units in need. Ukrs know this and concentrate their HMARs, JDAMs , Drones, on hitting trains, railheads, supply depots and even hiting Russian truck convoys. night and day. 2. Poor leadership and coordination, vintage outdated Soviet style mlitary doctrine. 3. Russian troops low morale and poorly trained. Its very amusing, that the Ukrainians despite having virtually no to little air support have managed to gain ground in the South vs. extensive Russian trenches and minefields and fortifications. despite at the start of the Ukrainian southern offensive the Russians had artilery superioirty and lots of air support. but the Ukrs focused on hitting Russian logistics and then artillery , cluster munitions proved very useful, as Russian artillery was really savaged to the point that now the Ukrainians have artillery superiority in southern Ukraine, as many Russian artillery have been destroyed , Russian logistics savaged by constant Ukr HMARS JDAM and cluster munition strikes. So Russians have to rely on air support from the Russian air forces with lots of SU-25 sorties, drones and glide bombs, unfortunately for the Russians, despite haviing lots of air support, they are not able to make proper use of it since Russian pilots are afriad of Ukrainian SAM systems , Russian pilots are forced to fire and extreme ranges which rsults in very inaccurate fire. the more accurate Glide bomb are more effective but still inaccurate and not enough of them. and due to this , also the Russians are trying to reinforce their forces int he southern front from other fronts but again these units are being hit hard while they are travelling via trains and roads, so by the time they are deployed to the southern front, they are weakened. So the Russian southern front is in a sorry state, with supply shortages esp. artillery ammo and artillery (wonder why the Russians are deploying their vintage musuem T-10 tanks to the southern front). This has resulted in Ukrs breaking thru the Russian defence lines and the Russians not effectively being able to carry out their offensives in the Kharkov oblast and getting their asses kicked in Bakhmut. as the Ukrs forces there nearly encircled the Russian troops in Bakhmut, yep while people like to do doom and gloom, the Russians are in for a shitshow of massive proportions, with the Ukrs probably capturing Tokmak by end of Sept 2023. and maybe even Bakhmut before the year ends. or hey maybe we can have a suprise where the Russian soutnern front collapses. and the Ukrainians capture Melitopol. hahah. Heck a Ukrainian capture of Melitopol and Bakhmut will really be a disaster for the Putin. maybe cause another coup vs. Putin hahah.
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What words come to me when i hear Russia as a Canadian Filipino Chinese is as follows : Communist, dictator, Putin, Stalin, tanks, Blini, Borsch. , Caviar, Kalashnikov, RPG-7, Eastern Front, cold, snow., cossacks,
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well to the Russkie ivan propogandists who say that oh we took 50 percent of Kursk back from the Ukrainians blha blha blah, yah in what 5 months, while suffering 150K casualties doing so, and outnumbering the Ukrainians by 3 to 1. The ukrainians are fighting a flexible maneuver war, this a regular strategy called the killing ground which the Americans used vs. the Chinese in the Korean war to wear out their manpower superiority, the defender withdraws to more defensible ground while he lets the enemy attack in open terrain and the attackers get hammered hard by Ukrainian drones and artillery ,and the Ukrainains move back when necessary to avoid close combat with the Russians, and also couinterattack on the flanks to collapse Russian offensivs. General Ridgeway called it meatgrinder tactics, in the korean war, the Ukrainains are much using better than the Russians, the Russian version of the meatgrinder massive air and artillery attacks followed by big attacks by infantry. supported by APCs and tanks. Russians cant use the Soviet signature mass tank attacks since its too suicidal for them to do so with many drones and ATGMs about.
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Typical Russian negotiation tactics. By the time this war ends, Russia will be totally messed up. Again depends on who win the 2024 USA elections.
If Kamala wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russian elites deposing Putin cut their losses preserve the economy and teh Russian state, a Russian total withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange , all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets are unfrozen in western banks, normalized relations with the west, formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing borders, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders.
If Trump wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russians keeping whatever they conquered from Ukraine. This is spun as a victory by Putin. There is an armistice but no peace treaty , sanctions vs. Russia are still in place. relations with the west still filled with tensions, and Russian assets in western banks still left frozen. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the USA and the west with Trump and his friends companies benefiting. Both sides build up their militaries again and ready up for a next war.
Either way, Ukraine joins NATO several years after the war ends, faster if Kamala Harris wins. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction aid from the west. Ukrainian economy booms during reconstruction. Russian economy goes to depression mode , hyperinflation , high unemployment, political and social chaos as the Moscow regime tries to assert control along with hundreds of thousands of Russian veterans coming back from the war causes social chaos in Russia. Putin if still in power clamps down hard on crime and civil disorder. If Putin was overthrown, Russia goes thru a period of social political and economic disorder simliar to teh 90s However Russia economically is kept stable with western support for the new Moscow gov. If PUtin still in power Putin with military force manages to restore order to Russia but after Putin dies, bloody civil war erupts in Russia. between various armed groups. I posit that it would be better if Russia lost the war, since it wont be burdened by economic sanctions and will western economic support so a soft landing. If Russia won the war, Putin would try to restore order with military force and might work in the short run but after he dies Russia goes through a bloody civil war not seen since 1917 to 1922.
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well I think the game has changed, looks like Zelensky will sign the contract for the minerals, not surprised if war ends with an armistice in the few months. Ukraine effectively becomes a USA protectorate, since Trump has a lot at stake in ukraine, Trump will probably protect it and warn the Russians off. You probably get a freeze in the conflict along the current lines of contact, Ukraine will get lots of USA weapons, Russia will get all sanctions lifted assets unfreezed plus normalized relations with the USA. Possibly UKraine gets peacekeepers from Europe and the UN.
So if this end occurs the war is still a stalemate with a marginal Russian victory. as Russia controls 20 percent of Ukraine, however its very marginal as Russia lost 900K casualties(the real number is probably 1 million casualties), destroyed prestige, a belaguered economy. and Russia facing post war economic problems. Ukraine on the other hand will probably boom after US and EU and allied investments due to American backing. I think there will be elections where possibly Zelesnky steps down and possibly fromer General Zalushny becomes Ukrainian president. Not surprised if we get a surprise from Russia like Putin suddenly dying and replaced by someone else like Patrushev shortly after the war ends.
in analysis, while the war is a stalemate with a technical Russian marginal victory, the Ukrainian have performed quite well, well above expectations which by all accounts should have been defeated by a much larger and stronger Russia(before the war) but the Ukrainians not only resisted strongly but gave the Russians a good thrashing. what was planned as a 3 day military operation a fast in and out operation by the Russians has turned out to have lasted 3 years, in a brutal war not seen since WW2, with casualites far exceeding all the wars Russia has fought since the end of WW2 put together.
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well Preston Russia does not have the same mindset as the west esp. the USA, yes we are ready to negotiate when you lose a war and dont collapse just like what happened to the USA in Vietnam , and Afghanistan. But in Russia they take this shit very seriously:
Now here are two wars that Russia lost in the past and the results:
Soviet Afghan war 1979 to 1989: Yes the USSR the precursor state to Russia lost this war, and yes the USSR collapsed the next year 1990. But this war was not the only reason why the USSR collapsed, in fact I think it was a minor reason, but the overall reason the USSR collapsed was a confluence of events and reason but most importantly the collapse of the Soviet economy was the most important reason, as the Soviet economy was not only very inefficient but the Soviet state yearly was overspending massively on its military and aid to its client states all over the world, yes the Soviet Afghan war was expensive but it failed in comparison to the massive cost of trying to catch up to the USA militarilly and technologically. as well as fighting proxy wars with the USA. The Soviet afghan war was probably the most expensive of the various proxy wars the Soviets and USA were doing and the Americans were probably paying a lot more than the Soviets but the Americans have a substantial bigger economy than the USSR and also had a very efficient gov and capitalistic economy. The Soviet communist command economy sucked and the Soviets profited when it was selling resources ironically to its capitalist enemies.
1st Chechen war 1994 to 1996: yes the Russians lost this war when the Russian generals bugged out and left their men in Chechnya in the aftermath of the successful Chechen guerilla offensive operation Jihad. However while there was a big stain and embarassment for Yeltsin and even talk of a coup vs. the yeltsin gov but yeltsin survived, the Russian economy did not collapse why? its because the West made sure Russia did not collapse with heavy massive Western investments in the Russian economy. In fact the Russian economy was booming at the time. and Yeltsin was able to go for another 4 years before handing presidency to Putin. Also the west did not support the Chechen rebels and did not want the Chechens to win as they were viewed as muslim terrorists by the west.
Now the current Ukraine war 2022 to present. There is a big difference between the two earlier wars. The Russians are in bad relations with the USA and the EU and their allies. The Russians are under economic embargoes , the worst ever in history from the west. The current war has in two years had Russian military casualty rates exceeding the 1st and 2nd Chechen wars and soviet Afghan war combined. with tank and APC losses far exceeding those lost the in the three wars mentioned combined. This type of war was not seen in Europe and Russia since WW2 Eastern Front. Also Putin has a lot more power of governance of Russia compared to the leaders of the USSR and Yeltsin. The leaders of the USSR were more like spokesmen for the communist party of the USSR and policy was made after party meetings deals and agreements between the ruling Politburo. In Yeltsin's Russia, Yeltsin as drunk most of the time, so governance was done by his gov officials. Yeltsin himself did not have much power and was a front for Russian oligarchs who held the real power.
Since Putin seems to hold central power in Russia and does not really have any able successors, well. after he goes, his successor wont have the influence and brains to hold Russia together. So a collapse is very possible very simliar to what happened after Ivan the Terrrible died in 1584, Russia was plunged into chaos called the Time of Troubles 1598 to 1613, as Ivan killed his eldest son, and his 2nd son Feodor who became Tsar after Ivan died. Tsar Feodor sucked bad, and was disinterested in ruling Russia, and historians even surmised he may have been mentally ill . The death of Tsar Feodor in 1598 started a civil war in the Russian empire which the boyars fought each other, and even saw a Polish invasion which captured Moscow.
So in current day 21st century, you have a lot of oligarchs with their own private armies and Putin who would be compared to a nicer Ivan the terrible with no competent successor involved in a terrible war and enmity with the western powers. So yah when Putin dies, Time of Troubles 2.0 can happen in a violent succession which turns into a civil war.
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my view stalemate in a convnetional war sense, however the Russians could win this war anytime, but have to use large amounts of WMDs to do so. and in doing so will risk war with NATO, and destruction of the Russian economy. So Putin is in a dillemma here, if he leaves Ukraine back to pre war borders,Putin will be overthrown and probably get killed. the only way he can get the Ukrs to qui is to probably use WMDs large scale. since the Ukrs will not surrender and back down. if the Russians do that, the Russians might lose , since NATO will military intervene and the risk of war with NATO will be big. and Russia has no chance to win a conventional war with NATO unless of course NATO is stupid enough to invade Russian proper itself or a nuclear exchange ensues where no one wins. I personally think Putin knows this but is hedging things as the use of WMDs will be his last card to play. the Russian economy is slowly dying from sanctions. its dependent on high oil prices which wlll come down when there is a worldwide recession which is being forecast for 2023. the Russians cannot mobilize their population forever, eventually the population support for Putin will crack and you will have a general revolt. Also the longer theh war goes the more strain on the Russian economy as the war is getting more expensive to prosecute. The Russian army is also getting more dillapidated its getting to be more of a shadow of what it was at the start of hte war. Russians are using WW1 style human wave assaults in the Donbass against the Ukrs, the Russian are buying large amounts of iranian missles and drones, as well as artillery ammo from the Iranians and North Koreans(probably the Chinese too under the table probably thru North Korea). since Russian stocks of missle and artillery that were stored for decades do not work due to corruption and poor management.
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this war is very simliar to the winter war of 1940 and 1st Chechen war however the diffrence, while the Finns and Chechens barely had any foreign support, the Ukrainians have massive NATO and USA miltary , political and economic support. Also the Ukrs are a bit better equipped than the Finns in 40 and Chechens in 95-96. and also as motivated to fight as the Finns and Chechens but a bit better armed. with the most advanced USA EUro ATGMs, drones, and Manpads. Europe is mostly united in support of the Ukrs and in opposition to Putin heck even neutral Sweden, Finland and Switzerland are doing sanctions on the Russians, the FInns, and Chechens never had this level of support. So you have an increasinglyi well armed well motivated Ukrainian defenders who know their own territory and are defending and using NATO tactics with good intel on Russian troop movement and unit locations vs. a Russian enemy who is much better armed, with a lot more AFVs planes, numerical superiority but poorly motivated with low morale , poor intel on the Ukranian enemy, poor logstics, poor planning a collapsing economy, a restive population. = DISASTER...however still do not understimate the Russians since the Russians still have a massive firepower and numerical ladvantage so can inflict horrific damage, however um motivated poor morale troops holding even the best weapons can fail, we have seen that with the Russians in Finland winter war 1940, the Russians int he 1st chechen war 95-96, the LIbyans in the 80s Chad Toyota wars. or hey how about the opening months of Operation Barbarossa in 1941 or even the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939.
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Also an analogy comparing the German invasion of the USSR 1941 to 1945 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022 to current. In the German invasion of the USSR, the Germans had a excellent quality troops leadership and good morale and organization and at the start arguably the German soldiers were better equpped with good logistics. vs. the Soviets who had poor quality trained troops poor leadership, questionable logistics however the Soviets had more tanks and planes than the Germans but lost a lot of them due to poor tactics and logistics.and attacked with surprise at the start of hte invasion in Summer 1941, However the Soviets had high motivation to fight vs. the Germans throughout the war, The Germans were stopped at Moscow due to the Germans outrunning their logistics and the Soviet counterattacking hard which almost wrecked German army group center. made worse by the harsh winter weather. and Germans not being ready for it. and later as the war went. the Soviets massively helped by massive aid from the USA and Great Britain managed to push the Germans back by greatly improving Soviet logistical capabilities, and as tehe Soviets were winning battles Soviet morale greatly improved along with tactics and fighting abilities also reforms to the Soviet command structure helped streamline and make Soviets more efficient. So that by 1944, the Soviets have effectrively kicked the Germans out of the USSR and were invading Eastern Europe Compare this to the current war in Ukraine. Ukrainians and Russians have very similiar mentalities when it comes to war, if someone invades them they fight tooth and nail to kick the invader out. Russians suprise invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022 and from the get go while they occupied 40 percent of Ukraine they have been in a bumbling invasion with teh Russians being shown to have poor morale , poor leadership, poor quality troops, poor logistics , incompetent leadership, noithing like the Germans who invaded the USSR in 1941. in fact the complete opposite. vs. an initially surprised Ukrainians who had good logistics, good leadership, high morale and motivation. and later massive western aid to Ukraine coming to rival that of their commitment to the USSR in WW2. and just like the USSR in WW2, Ukraine has been improving in all aspects in just 11 months of war, while the Russians have been declining in fighting ability, going back to WW1 style tactics, if it took the Soviet 3 years to evict the Germans from he USSR. I think it can take 2-3 years for the Ukrs to evict Russia from Ukraine.
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My view, Pacific war , starting in Dec 1950 caused by US freezing of japanese assets in 1950. Japanese plan for conquering the Philippines , Hawaii, panama canal and landings in the US west coast. The Japanese would sweep hard across the pacific, however the going is hard in the Philippines, as the defenders give the Japanese heavy losses while falling. in about several months. Hawaii falls fast. Japanese also capture the Panama Canal. the USN Pacific fleet is virtually destroyed. Japanese make landings in the US west coast. in 1951 and capture parts of it but have a tough time going due to fierce resistance. , lots of atrocities vs. American civlians, while the USA is momentarilly cowed and stunned, there is great outrage and calls for war and revenge vs. the Japanese. While the other great powers would not side with anyone, the USA might probably get Mexico and a bunch of Latin American states on its side vs. Japan. with the USA itself invaded the USA mass mobilizes and swtiches to a war economy. Japanese are pushed out of the US west coast and panama by mid 1951Probalby would take the USA to 1953 to take the fight to the Japanese in the pacific There would be no nukes, and the USA would be fully focused on Japan. with nothing but unconditional surrender in mind despite attempts by the Japanese for a negotiated armistice. while the USA has overwhelming industrial might and a bigger population they are hampered by a poor military position at the start of the war and a much stronger japanese military. the war takes longer than our timeline, maybe takes even 6 years.US is very much straighforward not only evicting japanese military from the Pacific and USA territories but going straight for the jugular and for a possible invasion of the Japanese home islands. USA would probalb win in the end with massive losses and probably the conquest of the japanese home islands and the collapse of the Japanese empire, USSR probably takes advantage by seizing manchuria and Korea.
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when the Russians fail at this climate weapon against the Ukrs, and in fact, the Ukrs used the climate to inflict major defeats on the Russian army ala Winter war 1940, holy crap, Putin by spring wil have run out of options and his rivals and enemies will be sharpening the knives for him. I see the war ending in mid 2023, in a removal of Putin from power and collapse of the RUssian gov. in infighting and semi civil war. also leading to the collapse of law and order and collapse of the economy. So my prediction, Russia suffers major defeats in the winter of 2022-2023 , the Ukrs remain defiant even in the face of the harsh Ukr winter. and Russian mass drone and missle attacks which will probably peter out by early 2023 as the Russians will run out of missles and drones. and the west is still massively supplying the Ukrs will weapons and supplies equipment. and money. Russia has run out of options by spring of 2023. so what does Putin do call for more mobilization. A number of Russian republics refuse to join mobilization and there is unrest in the Russian republics. and Russian propogandists are openly calling for Putin to end the war either with nukes or withdraw completely from Ukraine. and also propogandists start calling for Putin to step down from power. In a bid to remain iin power in the face of the Ukrs major offensives an the Russians by this time have lost control of most of the Donbass. and have a tenous hold of hte Zaporizhya area, Putin orders the use of nukes, which is not only disobeyed but Russian army deposts Putin from power. Severe infighting in the Russian leadership leads to the collapse of the Russian gov. collapse of law and order and economy. A junta comprising of Russian military leaders , and various Russian civlian politicos take over pwoer in MOscow and call for a ceasefire and end to the Ukr war. By the end of the war in Mid 2023, the Russian army in Ukraine has collapsed its a mess. Russian units cohesion collapse and Russian troops become mobs of troops looting raping and mutinying , many start going back to Russia by any means, the Russian border areas are also severely affected by large groups of heavilly armed Russian troops who have turned into bandits also looting and raping in these areas. With the loss of central authority, the local Russian areas have to do their own law and order with local militias sprining up to protect their areas. In the end Ukraine wins the war with a collapse of the Russian gov. and central authority and a new peace junta taking over. and blaming all of their problems on Putin. Repatriation of Russian troops is difficult as the Ukrs have to fight mobs of Russian troops who have become bandits and criminals, Russians leave a lot of their weapons in Ukraine. as they withdraw back to Russia, its simply chaos and the Russian gov. is bankrupt that they ask for the help of NATO and Ukraine to help repatriate their troops. The new junta in Moscow with a tenous hold on the Russian fed. has asked for a proper peace treaty with ukraine, and no opposition to Ukraine joining NATO and EU and total withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea and arrest of Russian war criminals, in exchange for USA EU economic support dropping of all sanctions, no reparations and normalization of relations with the west. the Moscow gov is bankrupt and desperate to maintain hold on the Russian fed. Large poritions of the Russian army has mutinied due to non payment of wages , Russian repulics form their own militias and military forces as law and order has collapsed.
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More desperation from the Russians the Russians are LOSING this war. Their economy is shit and getting worse, while they are not running out of recruits any time soon, they are running out of vehicles and economy is shite.
As I said before many a time since this war started in Feb 2022, the 2024 USA elections will be pivotal to victory, and when Biden wins 2024 , well it will be the start of Russia's downfall. Even more massive aid to the Ukrainians, and the removal of Putin from power which I think will occur in 2025. The elites will remove putin from power in 2025 with a 2nd term Biden admin noting that Russia cannot fight this war any longer, and suddenly Putin dies of natural causes, after a short power struggle, his successor announces an armistice and negotiations. and I think Russia will probably withdraw from all of Ukraine including the Crimea in return for removal of all sanctions, unfreezing of Russian assets in western banks, no war crimes tribunals for Russian leaders, no reparations from Russia for Ukraine. Also Russia does not say anything when Ukraine joins NATO and the EU later. shortly after the war is over after a general peace treaty is signed with the Russians relinquishing all land disputes with the Ukrainians and formalizing a Russo Ukrainian border.
I predict after the war, Ukraine joins NATO and EU, economy massively booms due to massive reconstruction aid from the west. Meanwhile Russia goes into economic depression, social and political unrest to something approaching a civil war but not quite a civil war. Russia probably loses 25 percent of its current land mass to secession and new countries are formed the West props up the Moscow gov. while the Chinese and Turks support their favorite anti west Russian factions and secessionists. Russia will become a massive great game for USA China Turkey/Saudi Arabia. A geopolitical headache in the decades to come. Millions of Russians will refugee to the west. The fall of Putin will be a massive political event which will have massive political repercussions in the future.
I can see Belarus and Georgia shortly after Putin is gone, get new Pro West govs. and in the future including with Armenia join the EU.
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Well from what I read, Putin is not looking to "win" the war as originally planned by replacing Zelensky with a Russian puppet. Now Putin wants regime survival , peace with honor with teh minimum of retaining the whole of Donbass and Crimea. at the very minimum. SO the plan now is to fortify his current holdings. freeze this war so it becomes a WW1 style of attrition. and to inflict so much damage to the Ukranians that they cry uncle or someone friendly to Putin like Trump becomes US pres. in 2025. The Ukrainians know this and will not play Putin's playbook. THe Ukrs will fight this war smart. Notice the Russians are building massive lines of trenches and fortifications stretching from Dinipro to Luhansk borders. and they are doing offensives to kcik the Ukrs out of the whole of the Donbass. The Ukrs are doing defensive actions causing as much damage to the Russians while limiting damage to themselves, the Ukrs will trade territory for massive Russian casualties. make the Russian pay heavilly for every meter. The idiots int he Kremlin who have been micromanaging this war from Day 1 have switched over to WW1 style infantry trench warfare. using WW1 style infantry attacks supported by heavy ari and artillery with Russian mech units acting as reserve emergency rapid reaction gap plugging units. Very similiar strategy the Iraqis used during the attirional phase of the Iran Iraq war of the 1980s. The Ukrs are still sticking to their Brigade level flexible maneuver warfare. the edge of the Ukrs is their flexible more decentralized command and control , Russians still have a rigid inflexible command and control. excellent leadership high morale and Ukrs artillery while outgunned heavilly by the Russians are much more accurate, Russians pray and spray just like WW1 and 2. Also Russian battlefield drones which are important for artillery spotting and fire control do not function in very cold weather . ukrs have no such problem. Ukrs also rotate their units to make them more effective in combat, Russians nope nothing like that. I think Putin will wait for the results of the USA pres. elections of 2024, try to hold on , after that if a new US pres. turns out to be Pro Ukraine, Putin will get really desperate, possibly use WMDs in the battlefield.
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Now as for the media saying a lot that trump is enamoured with Putin, Trump i like a giddy school boy around putin etc. etc. etc. Nope dont think so, since in the interview of Epstein as to what he thought of Trump, he said that Trump was an expert ingratiator, he is expert at buttering people up, stroking people egos so he can get a good deal then he backstabs them later, like his former business partners, black mails them , tells their wives of their infidelities, then uses that to bed them, then later swindles his business partners by not paying the full amount he owes them. since he has blackmail on them. I think Trump will do the same with Putin. Trump will backstab Putin. Trump will drain both Putin and zelensky for what they are worth, however even Trump and USA politicos, strategic planners, etc. they would like Russia to be properly weakened. so they can properly controlled and not a threat to their neighbours, Putin out and with weak leaders in power, and not coillapse in civil war but stable politically. Zelensky, well he is already controlled very much by the Americans. and they want to build up Ukraine so it can be a counter to a possible future resurgent Russia if Russia gets a another strong leader after Putin is gone. and also make money while doing it. since Trump would like all that sweet hundreds of billions of USD in Ukraine rebuild aid along with being the leader who saved Ukraine.and he downgrades and laughs at Biden saying this guy was mediocre in aid while I won the war or something like that, heck a nice Trump tower in Kyiv would be nice along with avenues being named after him.
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I think BTC will hit 15K USD probalby end of the year. 2018 Dec 2.0 all over again, however I think you will see a massive bounce from the bottom next year 2023. My current buy targets when this market bottoms are: BNB(201 USD or below buy price), SOL(26 USD), Luna(13 USD), Doge( 0.06 USD), MANA( 0.54 USD), GMT(0.80 USD), GALA( 0.07 USD). ENJ( 0.46 USD). GAL( 2 USD), MC(1 USD), HIGH ( 2 USD). Then I see a bull market in 2025 to 2029 timeline. which I think will see BTC go to 100K USD at least. So in the bear market buying strategy will be buying when the BTC or ETH Fear and greed index is extreme, during the bear market, strategy accumulatge stable coins flexible stake then buy when sentiment is extreme fear then wait for the bull market, whatever you buy stake stake stake.
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well the Russians have been pushing in Kupyansk since July 19 2023 with 100K men 900 tanks 400 artillery pieces and air support. Initially they tore a 8 KM wide hole in Ukr defence in the first week of the offensive but the problem is that the Ukrs really degraded the Russian logistics by HMARs and JDAMs on trains, ammo dumps fuel depots, rail heads. trucks, so much so the Russians did not have the fuel to take advantage of the hole and the Ukrs managed to plug it with reinforcements, the Russians have been doing constant multiple attacks here but not really advancing again, due to their fuel shortage problems since the front is far from the rail heads, and they need trucks to truck fuel and ammo to their soldiers and tanks from the rail heads, going thru few good roads, unfortunately many of these trucks were destroyed and Russian trucks are constantly sent to the front via rail. Also the Russians are attacking through open plains which are heavilly mined and the Ukr defenders are on high ground in good defences, that is why the Russians are having bad problems are heavy casualties trying to push teh Ukrs back, so the Russians are relying on small multiple attacks, and lots of artillery bombardment. If the Russians try to do a major attack their logsitics falls apart since it cant support a big breakthru attack. However the Russians in this front is well led, with good coordination , of course Russian troops still have poor morale nad training, and the Russians are using lots of Storm Z convict troops as cannon fodder and screening troops.
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my view is that WW3 is basically NATO, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Ukraine, vs. Russia, China, North Korea, . War with Russia will mainly be a land war and I dont think NATO will invade Russia, more like intervene in Ukraine to help drive the Russians out with border clashes along Russia/NATO borders, naval war will be NATO European navies fighting Russian navy in the North Atlantic ,Black, Caspian sea meditarreenaean, in the Pacific it will be Chinese North Korean, and Russian navies vs. the bulk of hte USN, Austraia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Taiwan. I think war ends in a few months maybe even 1 month with defeat for the Russo-Chinese alliance.
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I predict Trump will be impeached and arrested before the 2028 elections , in fact, he will go down as the worst USA president EVER....not surprised if Trump dies in prison. or someone assasinates him, as for his puppet master Musk, I predict the guy will be stripped of his Canadian and USA citizenship. and arrested and imprisoned, his assets frozen, and his companies broken up. not surprised if he dies in prison or is assasinated. JD Vance, probably career kaput. arrested in prison.
I think the next major turning point will be the 2026 USA senate and house elections , which the demos will sweep, and Trump will not accept this outcome and meddle in it causing a massive consitutional crisis and also with a US in possible economic recession, will cause the most massive nationwide protests not seen since the 2020 BLM protests. I think Trump will react to this challenge to his power by calling for martial law which I think will be rejected by the US military , I think the US military will stand down, and Trump will be arrested. same with his VP JD Vance. and I think the future democrat speaker of the house will be the next USA president interim possibly Hakkim Jeffries takes over,. until the 2028 USA elections. which the reps will be massively defeated in a landslide win by the dems in the house senate and Presidency.
The Rep party will be so defeated and humiliated as there is witch hunt on MAGA politicos that it will take a decade before they recover.
Then the USA now with a complete 180 personality change goes after Russia. alleging massive interference in the 2024 electrions and backing Trump admin in trying to break up the western alliance, the west will coordinate to destroy Putin.
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The raising of the interest rate besides causing a global recession/depression will do another think massive crash in all the markets, commodities, stock, crypto, real estate etc. etc. etc. only thing safe is USD and treasury bonds. Now the crash in oil and gas prices will result in the end of the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy is heavilly reliant these days on oil and gas sales, and while the Russians have prepared for this by building a 600 billion USD war pile, the war is costing the Russians 1 billion USD a day. and the sanctions, the Euros weaning themselves of Russian energy exports and and its not only the war costs but it costs a lot to run a massive country like Russia. WHile the west will suffer recessions , the 3rd world and Russia will suffer a economic depression. the Russian economy will collapse . and this will affect the war ability of the Russian army in Ukraine as the logistics get well worse as the Russian economy cant finance the war. and the Russians are using firepower to compensate for their poor quality soldiers and logistics and using firepower means they are expending a lot of ammo and weapons which means more costs to the war. The Russians may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but the rate they are doing this means it they will be experiencing ammo and weapon shortages as the war goes , made worse by poor logistics, poor long term storage management, the Russians will be forced to buy weapons and ammo from the Chinese to compensate, the longer the war goes the worse the Russian economy gets.
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I think war ends sometime in 2025, my view probably mid to late 2025 with the Russians keeping 20 percent of Ukraine. Ukraine withdrawing from Russia, all sanctions lifted on Russia, all assets unfrozen for Russia, Ukraine not to join NATO and or EU, Ukraine allowed to rearm , hundreds of billions of USD for Ukraine reconstruction(with Trump companies given priority). formal peace treaty with Ukrainians recognizing annexation of the 20 percent of Ukraine. what happens next, I think while Ukraine wont have NATO and EU membership, Ukraine will get defense pacts with NATO. while not a member of NATO , NATO will come to Ukraine's aid if war happens again with Russia, also NATO will help in rearming and reforming Ukraine's military.
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I find it hilarious the Chinese gov. is literally doing a property ponzi scheme on the Chinese people, while outlawing Crypto...hmmm...why??? since the Chinese gov. cant control crypto. if Crypto was allowed to proliferate in China, the CCP would lose their golden goose and CCP authority will be in trouble. as the Chinese economy collapses. Hence the crypto ban. When the Chinese gov. enters recession next year, the fun will begin, also add that to an escaltion of teh Ukraine war, to near WW3 levels. fun times. As said before the first domino will be who the CCP elects to be head supremo of China this coming Nov 2022 CCP meeting, if they pick XInping mao wannabe, well economic disaster for China. if they pick Le Kequiang. who is a moderate who favours detente with teh west, well the recession will still happen but China will get through this problme, the west will probalby help China in its housing ponzi scheme crissi, I still forsee a crypto boom in 2029 to 2033 besides the regulartions, massive financial money coming in the other elephant in the room is China legalizing crypto again and done in a big way. all that can push BTC to 500K USD. by 2033.
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Lets see 1300 yen for 6 hrs and you can rent for 12 hrs at 2600 yen or 27 CAD(Canadian dollars), its actually the same as a flea bag homeless hotel in Vancouver main and hastings. but the Japanese cafe is much cleaner, you get free internet, clean bathrooms, free manga to read, free tea, including food etc. Meanwhile in the homeless hotel in Vancouver, you get very dirty room, human excrement, rats, and crazy homeless people who can rob and attack you.
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Post war, the new military junta in the Russian gov solidifies its power, blames everything on Putin. starts negotiations with the west to normalizing relations and economic aid as Russia is bankrupt. the economy in ruins, and unrest is growing. Russia has just lost a major war with 200K casualties thousands of expensive tanks aircraft equipment lost. its prestige in tatters. an all time low. and many soldiers are asking for their pay which the Russian gov which is bankrupt cant fullfill and this has resulted in mutinies and unrest. esp. in the Russian border areas to Ukraine. Russians have also withdrawn from Belarus. and protests are restarted there the Belarus military is not suppressing the unrest and Lukashenko has fled the country. New democratic gov. in Minsk. takes over with Belarus military support. After tense negotiations, in return for the Russians totally withdrawing form Ukraine including Crimea and the Donbass puppet states. There will be a formal peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia with teh proviso of NATO coming to Ukraine's aid if invaded. also there will not be any Russian opposition if Ukraine joins the EU and NATO. and all war crimes will not be pursued against Russia, the Russian gov. will prosecute their own war criminals, and all sacntions will be removed, pre war diplomatic economic relations between NATO EU and Russia will be restored and substantial economic aid be given to RUssia. Despite all this, most western investors do not go back to Russia, and there is a lot of unrest esp. in Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia go thru a decade long period of unrest which sees Russia losing 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession. Also China masively invests in Russia whcih results in the west while distasteful also give a lot of economic aid and investment into Russia. to keep the Moscow gov on side. Ukraine on the other hand receives hundreds of billions of USD of economc aid in a massive marshal plan to rebuild the country.
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disagree with Leland, Ukrs are currently training their tens of thousands of mobilized reserves so they can adequately be reserives in a major Ukraine counter offensive which will collapse a Russian front. THe Russians are in a very bad position with limited offensive capability, no reserves, low supply low ammo, low morale, bad logistics, Ukrainians have outfight the Russian in most fields. I think the Ukrainians will hit the Russians in the South aiming to kick the Russians out of the Crimea and the Donbasss. Collapse the Russian southern front. The most stable and strongest Russian front is the southern front but even that the Russians are in a shakey position. and somewhat better situation than the other fronts. The Ukrs will let the Russian do their offensive in the south, then when the Russians have expended their shot, Ukrainian counteroffensive a major one with tens of thousands of well trained reserves, probably by next month April to may 2022 timeline. I think the entire Russian southern front will collapse and the Ukrs can probably retake most of the crimea. that would be a catastrophic defeat for the Russians. not surprised the Russians use massive amounts of chemical weapons to just to try to stop the offensive. A major Russian battlefield defeat of this size will probably convince putin its time to cut and run . I think final negotiations, Russia will probably annex the donbass. and Russians withdraw from all of Ukraine. Putin will probably remain in power for the forseeable future having spun the war as a war of liberation for the Donbass. and his attacks on Kiev and Kharkov and others are just to help gain Donabass independence. and he will blame his generals and ministers for the war. and purge them. I expect Putin to increase his dictatorial controls over Russia. millions of Russians might flee and become refugees in Europe. I also think thousands of Russian soliders will not go home and opt to be refugee in Europe.
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or the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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The Russians have 20 percent of their GDP supporting their war, and this will get bigger when the Russians get desperate like the Ukrs needing to mobilize more troops due to ongoing massive casualties. and the Ukrs inflict major defeats ont he Russians, the Russians will not stop until Putin is gone from power. Just like when Stailn died and the Korean war ended. No matter the outcome of this war, Russia will be ruined economically after this war, and have a fragile political situation as well as being a pariah to the west. and as said a fragile poliical situation with oligarchs and gov and military officials forming their own PMCs private armies during the war, and wihen Putin is gone, you have a problem of succession to the leadership of Russia and all the contestants have their own private armies with no political party control, a Russian gov in chaos, military is disarray not paid with a lot of mutinies getting recruited by private armies who will actually pay and a economic collapse in teh background, yep when you get an economic collapse and political chaos, the Russian military will not get paid. and you have political factions with their own private armies in a fight for succession and they will pay you get a lot of the Russian military mutinying to go to the private armies. and you have a bloody civil war, then you have secessionists like the Chechens with their own miltiaries, militias who will form their own republics with support from China, Turkey, USA etc. The next Syria will be the Russian federation, if you thought the Syrian civil was bad the upcoming Russian civil war will be massive a syrian civil war on steroids and crack. and also add in nukes. and chemical and bio weapons. The USA and NATO will be desperate to secure.
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well Ukraine cant rely on the USA anymore, Im thinking of this scenario Russian and Ukrainian negotiations collapse in 2025 due to really shit unacceptable terms from Putin. USA lifts all sanctions on Russia , unfreezes its assets in the USA and stops all aid to Ukraine. However the EU , with UK France, Germany, Poland Czechs, Finns, Swedes, Baltic states, Italy, Spain taking the lead massively raises miltiary and economic aid to Ukraine, starts ramping up weapons productions. massively. also UK France lift all restrictions to use their weapons to hit Russian soil. Also possible deployment of UK, Polish, and French troops to Ukraine. Putin rattles the nuke saber at the EU NATO , and the French and UK rattle their nukes back. ignoring Trumps statements at not protecting NATO nations from Russian attack which only makes the rest of the EU and NATO even more hostile to the USA> USA arms embargoes the EU and NATO then imposes high tariffs on NATO and EU nations supporting Ukraine. war goes on in Ukraine. with weapons and supplies sourced all over the world to support Ukraine. Also Ukraine mobilizes its population for more recruits and also does a Russian style foreign volunteer recruitment to get more manpower to fight the Russians. A European expeditionary force to Ukraine is formed from UK , French, Polish, Italian , Spanish, Czech military forces. sent to Ukraine does not fight the RUssians but put in reserve standby. Also European pilots and Euro combat jets sent to Ukraine rapidly and fly combat missions vs. the Russians. WIth the USA failing, and washing its hands of Ukraine, the Europeans step up to the plate. if the Russians escalate to nukes chemical weapons or doing a Ukrainian operational collapse there will be war with the Europeans. So in 2025 you may have a situation of a Russia that the heavy hand of sanctions lifted from its economy and a Ukraine possibly resurgent and still kept alive and fighting hard with renewed massively increased European support. and the USA washing its hands completely of the conflict and growing more isolationist. and focusing instead on China.
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well I think what would end up happening is that peace in Ukraine which would probably come in mid to late 2025 will be the war freezing at the line of control to what the Russians currently have like the Korea DMZ border line where buffer zones will seperate the Russians and Ukrainians manned by European troops So the Russians will get to annex all the regions they conquered from Ukraine , all sanctions lifted , all Russian assets in western banks unfrozen. normalized relations between USA and Russia and Ukraine cannot join the EU and NATO. in return, Ukrainians get billions of USD in rebuild aid from USA and EU(with teh caveat Trump , Musk and their companies get the lions share of rebuild infrastructure contracts), Ukraine also gets billions of USD worth of US weapons, and not surprised after all that Zelensky steps down or is defeated in a future election. I think a future Ukrainian gov will be hostile to Russia and probably rearm retrain and reorganize its army for a a future war with Russia with the help of western countries most notable USA, UK , France Poland Baltic states , Sweden Germany etc. Russia in the meantime will be busy trying to rebuild its economy and de militarize its economy while trying to rearm and modernize its army, Russia wont be in any position to invade anyone. its army while marge has been totally discredited and embarassed. and Putin now has to focus on his economy as well as solidifying his grip on power as after the war is over, there will be recriminations vs. putin from the Russian elite questioning his ability to rule as the war while balyhooed as a victory by the Russian gov is not viewed as a victoiry by the Russian elites. also Russia is destabilized by high crime rates from returning veterans and the 20 perecnt of Ukraine the Russians conquered probably needs many billions of USD to rebuild , since what the Russians hold mostly is ruins. also many PMCs running around in Russia which is veyr dangerous to suppress. I think end of this war even with a so called Russian "victory" results in unrest and destabilization of the Putin regime esp. after Putin dies wtih no clear successor or a successor with his abilities.
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Surovikin has been VIP member of wagner since last year. after he got replaced by Garasimov. Looks like Putin does not like competent generals so he demoted Surovikin and put in the Garasimov yes man haha. Looks like Ukraine will win the war due to Russian leadership competence haha, the greatest Ukrainian general is putin due to his constant meddling and fucking up. Imagine start of the war , the Russians had a massive advantage in firepower and numbers, supposedl 2nd strongest power in the world, Ukraine had a lot weaker military, Russian attacked with surprise, Russia had 10X the firepower and tanks and economy compared to Ukraine and the Russians forecasted 3 days they would conquer Ukraine Kiev would fall. well due to Putin's meddling NOW 1 year 5 months into the war, Ukraine has reclaimed 50 percent of what it lost to Russia, Ukrainians are in the middle of a major offensive and slowly gaining ground. Russia had lost 300K casualties several thousand AFVs hundreds of combat aircraft, worst losses since WW2, massive loss of prestige, Russian troops and leadership were made to look like incompetents homer simpsons. while the Ukrs have massively improved their army to be the strongest army in Europe due to massive NATO support. able leadership , high morale and good tactics. and of course now Putin best troops tried to overthrow him , hmmmm. only 1.5 years into the war, and the Russians are falling apart hahahah. a few more major Russian defeats in Ukraine, and there will be a bigger rebellion vs. Putin this time it will not stop until it reaches Moscow. Imagine, more defeats = more mobilization = more rebellion. Russians have truelly fucked this war to defeat.
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if Russia uses nukes it wont be one, it will be multiple, what does it matter if the Russians use one they will get the same reactions from the USA and NATO if they use one or multiple. It will end the war in Ukraine , and a possible clash between NATO and Russia. No ww3, however war ends in Ukraine, with Russia holding whatever they currently occupy and NATO and UN troops in Ukraine to protect the country. However while the war is a stalemate and Russia can claim it has won. THe USA and EU will impose total sanctions on Russia, no trade, and pressure all hte other countries to follow the sanctions on Russia or get the same sanctions. total sequestration of all Russian assets oligarch, gov. individuals on all countries sanctioning. Russia is essentaily totally isolated form the rest of the world. Economic collapse for Russia, massive brain drain. After Putin dies, civil war. unrest . Political economic social chaos in Russia after Putin dies. Ukraine gets back all of its lost territories shortly after Putin dies, as a desperate Russain gov. wants total sanctions to end plus a massive economic aid plan to save the Russian economy in exchange for: giving back all Ukr territroy. a formal peace treaty, no contest in Ukraine joining NATO and the EU. and arrest and giving to the Ukrs and the EU Rusian war criminals.
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yah also add mental illness, pressures from home, feelings of inadequacy , feeling he is a failure, dad probably berating him, dad probably wanted him to do something for himself, staying at home mooching no job. mom probably telling him to get a job, finally the guy snaps and he kills the mom, probably drunk and on drugs, then when he realizes what he did, committs suicide.
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well Ukraine will be the ulcer which destroys the Russian federation. Ukraine may lose this war, like when I say lose , the Russians manage some sort of peace deal where it keeps a chunk of Ukrainian territory. However while achieving this victory is pyrrhic , the Russian will probably lose a million casualties , a destroyed economy,, a fragile political situation. very bad relations with teh west, investors not coming back , sanctions still being upheld. The collapse might come after the war is over whether the war is won or lost by Russia. My opinion is that it would be better for Russia to lose this war, since the longer Russia is in this war the more destroyed its economy and political stabilty will be , the more damaged its militayr will be. So it has to cut its losses. 20 to 30 percent of Ukrainian land which has destroyed infrastructure and needs hundreds of billions of USD to rehabilitate is simply taxing on the Russian economy, and teh Russian population it will be a very hard sell for exchanging 1 million dead for 30 percent of destroyed Ukrainian land and a depressed Russian economy. and failing Russian infrastructure. I think if Russia "wins" this way it just prolongs the agony and makes things worse when things come to a head. It will be the collapse even worse, and a possible chance of a real civil war breaking out after the war.
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here is my criteria on buying coins, if you are not on binance and coinbase but are in Binance and or Coinbase futures, that is a massuve sure buy, since the cons chances of getting into binance and coinbase is big for that coin. ...coins of this category are for example BRETT, AERO, VIRTUAL, MOG, MORPHO, DEGEN, POPCAT, GOAT , MEW, CHILLGUY, CAT, , notice they are all BASE and SOL tokens. since I think SOL and BASE are going to fight it out for the king of the alt coins.
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the Ukr Kharkov offensive in late 2022 was a unmitigated disaster for the Russians, the worst they suffered in the war, the Russians lost several hundred tanks and APC lost , as the Russian front there collapsed, Russian troops ran away abandoned their vehicles and positions even stole bicycles and ran back to Russia, at Izyum alone, the Ukrainians captured 450 tanks and APCs in various states of disrepair since Izyum was a Russian logistics and vehicle repair hub. Also the Russians in their desperation sent in their conscrupts who were barely trained many only trained for a week at most. sent with T-90s and 80s and whatever tank or APC was at hand but they also got creamed and defeated by the Ukrainians resulting in these new recruits panicking abandoning their vehicles and running away. It was that bad. So the Russians just gave several hundred tanks and APCs including a handful of T-90Ms, one of which was last seen being shipped to the USA for study. haha. Many of the abandoned tanks were in good condition, Ukrs just repaired refuelled them and deployed them against their former Russian owners...LOL. it was that embarassing for Russia hahaha and I find it amusing that Russians like to crow about the few Leopard 2s the Ukrs lost hahahaha. while the Russians lost several thousand Russians tanks ranging from vintage museum T-55s to the latest T-90Ms, so far in this war, the Ukrs lost far less. In fact its so bad the biggest tank donor to the Ukrs are the Russians Its that EMBARASSING. Its so bad that before the war , 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the Russian federation. now 1.5 years later, 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the USSR. its so bad not only are the Russians bringing out their T-55s from storage which the last time the Russians used them in large numbers was during hte invasio oif Czechoslovakia in 1968, the SOviet never used them in Afghanistan. heck its even worse the Russians are bringing out their T-10 heavy tank, made before the T-55 hahaah. So what next , will the Russians bring out....IS-3s and T-34s hahahahaah.
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I predict semi normal ties with the west in the next few years, after Putin is gone, Russia has lost the war and moscow begs the west for more money and normalized relations, as for Medvedev , war criminal status, special jail in Kiev or Hague. as for Girkin, yah he is so pissed off by how the Kremlin is conducting the war he is calling them not even comparable to primates. no imagination, no logic, just pure stubborness. and Girkin btw was one of the planners of teh Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and a avowed Russian Ultra nationalist but while being that , he is no fool and does not suffer fools, direct and honest about the situation.
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well I think Putin has been micromanaging this war right down to teh brigade level. his generals are there to carry out his orders to the letter. Putin is probably advised by Shoigu and Garasimov and yep Putin is the secret weapon of the Ukrainians hahahaa. Putin's indept amateurish micromanagment of the Russian war in Ukraine has led to disaster so much so, before the war Russian was much more superior to Ukraine in terms of military and economy , Ukraine was predicted to fall within 3 days to a week. Now 1.5 years later, Ukraine is stronger than they were before the war, their air force is still flying and supporting Ukr military offensives, and the Ukrs have retaken 50 percent of the territory they lost to Russia since FEb 2022, and they dealt Russia a massive blow in manpower losses now estimated to be 250K to 300K(or even more ) casualties 4-5,000 tanks, a hundred or so aircraft. the Russian also lost their black sea flagship the Moskva and Russian cities are getting bombed by Ukrainian drones. and to top it all off, the the Ukrainians are doing major offensives vs. the Russians breaking thru their trenches and fortifications. while the Russian offensives fail due to the inability to protect their logistics adequately from Ukrainian attacks not to mentkion the continuing low morale poor training of Russian troops. Also Putin's political standing has been decaying and can be shown with Prigozhins attempted coup mutiny whatever. A stark example of this Putin micromanaging disaster mismanagement of Russian forces is the attempted massive 100K men 900 tank Russian offensive into the Kharkov oblast which started in July 19, 2023, the Ukrainians had one brigade defending the area and it took the Russians one week to punch a 8 KM wide hole int he Ukrainian defences fighting one Brigade, but since Russian logistics are so poor and cannot handle a offensive this big, and the fact that the Ukrainians have been hitting their logistics hard with misssles and JDAMs and also compounded by the fact, that the Russians in this offensive are still dependent heavilly on railways and trains to supply their troops and the Russian offensive is far from their rail heads and their supplies have to be transported by trucks into an area which have few good roads, lots of open fields heavilly mined by the Ukrainians , and the Ukrainians defending on Open ground so they attack to attack up hill vs. entrenched Ukrainians. and the fact, the Ukrainians are continually hitting the trains and trucks and ammo dumps that it took the Russians heavy losses and a week to push the Ukrainians back, yes they did inflict heavy losses on the Ukraianians and tore and 8 KM wide hole in the Ukrs defenses but hte Ukrs were able to plug it quickly since the Russians ran out of fuel and ammo that they were not able to exploit the breech. and the Ukrs counteratttacked and as of this writing the Russians are being driven back to their starting positions, the Ukrs withdew intact fighitng and were reinforced by a few brigades. the only thing slowing down the Ukrs are the heavy Russian air and artillery support. Yep its funny the Ukrainians who were written off last year are now doingf major offensive pushing back the Russians. while the Russians cannot even do major offensives anymore due to poor managment of their logistics and micromanagement from a moron who believes only in his own reality which is quite divorced as to what is happening in the field. Very amusing.
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if the war went on for one more year like 1919 , The USA would have conquered all of Canada and the British Carrabean. Stalemate in the western front, Probable armistice as Communist revolutions sweep the Austro hungarian empire , Russian empire, Germany and France. Maybe , the whole Western and central europe would turn into Commie states. with the exception of Great Britain., Spain , Portugal , Greece, Ottoman Empire would maintain hold, Italy later becomes a socialist fascist dictatorship under Mussolini. The Soviets would win the Battle of Warsaw in 1920 paving the way for direct intervention in the German and Austro Hungarian revolutions. WW2 might look like USSR and allied German, French , Turkish, European communist states vs. USA, British and Japanese empires fighting over the Middle East and China.
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First signs that the Russian economy is breaking, the Russians are running out of their war fund rapidly, as the Russian economy goes more in the war mode , the Russian war fund really starts to run out , the Russians cannot shield their citizens from the economic damage of teh war, also sanctions are starting to bite hard. So yah expect breakdowns in Russian infrastructure, hyperinflation and rising food prices. I think by 2025 it will start to get really bad in Russia, like 1K Russian ruble to 1 USD, food shortages, bit more rolling blackouts also many deaths during winter as Russian central heating fails in many Russian cities and towns. After the war , I think the Russian economy and infrastructure will collapse catastrophically. Like this is just a taste of what will happen, imagine after Russia loses this war, there is political, economic and social chaos in Russia. how about permanent blackouts over the majority of Russia due to breakdown in Russian gov and infrastructure, then winter comes and thousands or even millions die of cold due to no heating throughout winter, yep how about hyperinflation so bad, russian ruble becomes toilet paper. food shortages due to collapse of Russian transport distribution networks. and also collapse of law and order in Russia after the collapse of the Putin gov and the resulting power struggle between Russian factions.
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Russian criminal incompetence and corrption in the prosecution of the Ukraine war will lead to their defeat and civil war in Russia. I firmly believe that Russia will be defeated in this war when they go into civil war, there is chaos in the Russian military command caused by starting with a biden win in 2024, democrat majority in the house and senate, passive of massive Ukraine aid bills in 2025 possibly dwarfing the past aid bills. Which leads to major battlefield victories for Ukraine in 2025 to 2026, along with start of major economic problems for Russia starting in 2025. and Putin desperate move for a general mobilization in 2026. leads to protests, uprisings, refusals to draft, violence, and since Russia's security forces are brtual, probably lead to mass killings of protesters. which leads to a general uprising in the Russian public and armed forces. As the Russians have a command and control chaos, the Ukrainian launch major offensives collapsing the Russian lines in Ukraine. something not seen since Desert storm 1991. with mass surrenders and desertions of Russian troops dissolving whole Russian military units as their officers abandon them. Ukraine will take back everything it lost including Crimea as Russia goes into civil war and in negotiations. and why do I think Russia will go into civil war, well the war has degraded the economy of Russia, hollowed it out, it may seem to grow but its growing due to gov spending massive gov spending into the war, and about 40 percent of the Russian economy is geared to the war and growing, the Russian civilians are not benefiting from it. and this growth is not sustainable and is overheating the Russian economy. all it needs is a major crisis to collapse the Russian economy. and also hundreds of Russian PMCs have been formed by oligarchs, corporations , political parties, regional governors and even private individuals and nationalist groups. If Putin goes down well you have lots of PMCs and no central control guess what happens next...CIVIL WAR. As Igor Girkin said, if Russia is defeated in this war, a Russian civil war will occur much like 1917 where there are hundreds of militias and private armies, a militia for every neighbourhood as he says. and the death toll of this civil war will exceed Russian deaths in Ukraine.
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hahah so PUtin thinks, I think what will happen with a trump win, Trump hosts a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, I think war ends in 2025 with the Russians retaining whatever territory they conquered in a korean war style armistice, some sanctions lifted , Russian assets in western banks unfrozen. and a threat if Russia decides to restart the war again, USA will turn back the military aid taps back on. Also for the Ukrainians they will get hundreds of billions USD in reconstruction aid from the USA with the companies of Trump and his buddies favoured int he reconstruction. However no NATO and EU membership for Ukraine.
Putin will spin this as a victory. and will now focus on rebuilding his economy and military. The Ukrainians do the same. with a focus on its military. Ukrainian economy massively booms during reconstruction, however the Russian economy suffers a massive downturn. with Russia finding it very difficult to transition back from a military to a civilian economy since many sanctions are still up esp. from the EU. hyperinflation comes to Russia. also Russia does not have the money to exploit and reconstruct the territories it conquered and is immigrating Russians into these territories. which are in ruins. Putin regime survives but his political hold on Russia has been severely damaged by the war, the Russians dont see a win in the Ukraine war they see it as a defeat with the way their military performed and how their economy went into hyperinflation and depression mode with no end in sight. and also coupled with heavy handed ways PUtin is trying to keep in power by purges and possibly even martial law in certain areas in Russia. I think while Putin wants to finish his Ukrainian problem, his gov and military leadership really have no appetite for him, and probably seek to replace him in case he decide to restart the war again.
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Ukraine will win this war not by defeating the Russians in the battlefield but by outlasting Russia political will to fight this war, I think Putin's winter strategy will fail, when this happens, by March 2023, his next strategy is to cause as much Ukrainian losses on the battlefield that the Ukrs will agree to peace terms, so Putin will start using WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons. Putin has his back to the wall, with a slowly collapsing economy Putin wants to force the Ukrs to peace terms on Russia's favour ASAP. so Putin's regime will survive. Putin knows he cant keep on mobilizing, and he cant be in a long war since the Russian economy cant support the war esp. under sanctions and the oil prices will be dropping due to a looming worldwide recession. Once the oil prices drop to below 50 USD , the Russian economy simply cannot support a major war. The use of chemical weapons will outrage the west and invite total sanctions on the Russians, when dead Ukr children dead of Nerve gas are shown on social media, there will be great ourrage and call for total economic sanctions on the Russians which include no trade from the 1st world nations and their allies, confiscation of all Russian assets in sanctioning countries, and sanctions on any nation still trading with Russia. Also a bit higher aid is sent to Ukraine. along wtih ATACMs, western tanks, jets. Ukrs in revenge start hitting Russian territory more with drones and missles. by mid 2023 Putin strategy has failed , his support is rapidly waning , his economy rapidly collapsing, so he plays his last card to birng the Ukrs to the peace on his terms and Putin will use multiple tactical nukes in hte battlefield. I think when he orders its use , by this time his back is really to the wall, and he thinks in his mind, the west wont do anything if he uses nukes in Ukraine. despite threats from the USA. In this case I think the Russian mlitary wont obey the use of tac nukes in Ukraine and have Putin arrested and deposed. New Russian gov takes over which is probably a Russian military junta. The new Russian gov realizes there is no way to win the war. and using nukes invites war with NATO, The new Russian gov. ends the war in Ukraine. and after negotiations orders the withdrawal to the Pre invasion borders of 2022. in exchange most sanctions are lifted relations are restored with the west, the war is blamed on Putin and his buddies, who either are arrested, dead or escaped to another country. The withdrawal to pre war borders is more or less orderly. war is over.
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Russian response of 70 S300 missles means the Russians are a bunch of Orc cavemen brutal shits. who dont fit in the modern world. yah your missle strikes are just going to piss off the Ukrainians to fight more. Instead of targettting militry gov. bases, the Russians target civilians. Ukrs target Russian military and gov. assets. and try to avoid Russian civilan deaths, Just shows you how moronic the Russian gov is. Putin will lose this war, even if he achieves a stalemate, the war has caused so much economic and social damage to Russia that it will probably collapse later. Only way the Russians can eke some sort of victory is to use nukes to achieve a stalemate, a Korean war style peace otherwise it will continue to get defeated on teh battlefield. After this war is over Russia will break up , and those aholes who ordered strikes on Ukrs civlians will be tried for war crimes, the next Russian gov. after PUtin will be forced to give up thousands of Russian war criminals for trial in Ukraine and the Hague in exchange for dropping all sanctions plus financial aid, after this war Russia will be so bankrupt it can hardly rebuild its army for the next several decades. Due to Russia breaking up after this war, Russia will shun war, heck Im not surprised if Russia joins the EU and NATO to get protection from China hahahaah.
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if the Chinese were stupid enough to shoot Pelosi's plane, I can say China will have committed economic and military suicide. The US and her allies including, UK, Canada , Australia, Japan and others will do total economic sanctions on China and anyone else who trades with China, China will be designated a terrorist state, all ports blockaded, all shipping intercepted and confiscated, all Chinese assets abroad confiscatred, Chinese oligarchs gov. officials their properties abroad confiscated, their kids sent back to China. and the Chinese navy and air force mostly destroyed. Chinese economy will collapse. this will trigger mass unrest, gov. will respond with martial law and brutality. including shooting protesters, all foreign investors will run away from China. then Civil war. end of CCP.
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how did they convince, the offer of MONEY...MONEY MAKES THE WORLD GO AROUND. unfortunately for these dopes, when they die , they not only dont get to enjoy the money but also their relatives dont get the money, they are not on the books therefore they were not hired by the russians or they are listed as missing. body not recovered. Yah they may get a downpayment but that is it. And if they want to return to their home country, too bad, Russians wont allow them plus their embassy would just laugh at them. So that is why a growing number of them surrender to the Ukrainians. Heck that is what happens when you get desperate idiots with no military training , getting trained for a month or less then get thrown into some of the worst war frontlines in recent history, like the Ukraine war is the worst war in Europe since WW2. WHen they get their first traste of combat they break, the majority die , or surrender. These idiots also get abused by their fellow Russian soldiers they get wounded too bad , no medical evac for them shortage of medicines at the front. Meanwhile if they surrender to the Ukrainians they get treated relatively better, they get food and medical. of course if they are lucky to surrender to a Ukrainian unit who takes prisoners , many Ukrainian units will shoot any Russian or foreign volunteer in the Russian army on sight.
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I still believe war ends in 2025 or in 2026 after a Kamala harris win in 2024 , elites remove putin from power in 2025 or in 2026, peace talks happen, and Russia withdraws from Ukraine and Crimea, in exchange for all sanctions lifted, normalized relations with the west, all Russian assets unfrozen. no reparations, no criminal prosecution for Russian leaders. and a formal peace treaty recognizing borders, shortly after Russia says nothing when Ukraine joins NATO and the EU.
The fall of the Putin gov and defeat in the Ukrainian war will have massive worldwide effects, like the far right and far left lose substantial funding, I can see the fall of the maga movement. and the far right parties in Europe. Trump going to prison. Same with Orban and the Slovak leader .
As fro Ukraine, Ukraine booms economically due to hundreds of billions of USD pumped into its economy during reconstruction. Russia meanwhile goes thru time of troubles 2.0 for a few decades. its like the 90s but on steroids, Russian oligarchs backed by their PMCs controlling the Russian economy and gov. Uncontrolled crime and corruption and a depressed economy with hyperinflation, Russian gov army and currency all a joke. Millions of Russian refugees to the west, Russia becomes a hub for criminal activity and non stop drug and weapons smuggling to Europe. Russia becomes a massive failed Narco state. the most dangerous country in Europe. and Russia becomes a great game of influence between USA and China for its resources. and geo political location. Oligarchs and foreign powers make sure no leader like Putin ever comes to power again.
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well the Kremlin is going thru this on cheapo. not paying the men poorly supplying them, trying to get enought money to fund the war and outlast the Ukrainians. The Goal now for Putin is regime survival. with the most minimum territory being the Donbass and Crimea, without those Putin is doomed. and even though Putin manages to get a "win" in this war, which is probably 25 percent of the country, and I do think the war will end sometime in 2025-2026. with the 2024 USA presidential elections being pivotal to the outcome of hte war, If a Pro Peace pres. is elected and ends up cutting off aid to Ukraine (or drastically lowering it) and forcing the Ukrainians to negotiate.with Russia having the upper hand or Biden is reelected and war aid continues which makes Putin even more desperate that he makes some serious mistakes which can get his overthrown. and the Russians and Ukrs negotiate an end to this war with the Ukrainians having the upper hand in final negotiations. Either way the war ends, I think the very serious strains the war put on the Russian economy and military will really be felt, like I think by the time the war ends in the 2025 to 2026 range, the Russian economy will be seriously hurt and possibly 25 to 50 percent of it converted to a military economy. the Russian military will be massive in manpower but a shadow of its pre war self. and looking dillapidated . and shabby, and the western foreign investors, most will not come back to Russia, sanctions will most probably remain, teh areas they captured from Ukraine have destroyed economies, destroyed infrastructure, depopulated. and needs to be pacified. Russia will need to spends many billions to rebuild those areas and pacify it with large numbers of military forces. Also , many PMCs private armies will have been formed during the war, by oligarchs and political leaders , as well as local regional militias, this in the backdrop of political instability, as due to the war even if it is ballyhooed as a victory by Putin will not be seen as a victory but more like a defeat, with continuing strong economics sanctions from the west, continuing cost of maintaining a massive army, many of whom have not been paid. and a economy is depression and Putin's health will have even more badly degraded due to mental depression I dont think Putin will more too long after the war is over. His death will have a massive impact as even though he has a stated successor, said successor will not have the caliber and influence of Putin. and there will be a power struggle, and said power struggle will involve military might of the private armies. also the RUssian army will fall apart, due to low pay or no pay at all and the Private armies are the only ones paying , and the pay is good. Russia will slide to civil war, a few years after the war is over. and as Igor Girkin said, the civil war will result in millions of casualties. as bad or worse than 1917. I think Russia will be a geopolitical headache for a decade. Russia will become like China in the 1920s, no central gov Country ruled by warlords. who war with each other. after all is said and done. Russia will come out minus 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession, with several new countries being formed. in the Russian federation. And as for Ukraine, Ukraine will get back all of its lost territory including Crimea, after the wsar is over and after Russia goes into civil war. and future Russians will rue the day Putin came to power. and destroyed the Russian federation responsible for the death of millions of Russians. and the destruction of Russian prestige. he will be rated as one of hte worst Russian leaders .
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yes Putin is getting desperate, and I still think the end of the war will be either in 2025 or in 2026 predicated on the results of this years 2024 USA elections. When joe biden wins the elections, the Russian elites will cut their losses and kick out putin and end the war , I predict Putin dies of natural causes then everything is blamed on him, there is a ceasefire and negotiations for a few months, and total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. and it will be a mess. in return , formal peace treaty , unfreezing of all Russian assets in Ukraine, no reparations, no war crimes tribunals or ICC wanted for Russian leaders, lifting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west.
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well here is my scenario, demos sweep the house and senate in 2026, trump does not accept the results and meddles in the elections causing a massive constiutional crisis, his tariffs cause inflation and later recession, a combination of the consitutional crisis and recession plus more authoritarian orders from the white house results in massive street protests in American cities not seen since 2020 BLM riots , I htink the protests are probably bigger than that. Trump faced with impeachment with thousands of protesters besieging the white house, and possibly even Mara Lago results in Trump calling for a state of emergency and martial law. US armed forces stands down, I think there will probably be a massacre of protesters which intensifies the riots, and this is used to remove Trump from office , JD Vance is also removed and the speaker of the house a democrat takes over. as Interim USA president before the 2028 elections.
the end of trump will be a prison cell, same for Musk. US gov will come after Musk after the 2028 elections, US gov cancels his citizenship same with Canada, and freezes his assets. Not surprised if Musk exiles to Russia.
the aholes Musk Putin and Trump think they won but nope the show is not over yet. and their ends will be brutal and interesting.
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and if you look at the majority of the Russian troops attacking Ukr positions in Bakhmut , its Wagner penal convict soldiers and there are rumors that wagner is also recruiting from central African jails for penal soldliers to sent to Ukraine. So I think its both to turn bakhmut into a meatgrinder for the ukrs soldiers using Russian penal troops who are very expendable, Also reduces the criminal population of Russia. and perhaps the Central African republic, The way the Russians are using the penal troops is not exactly wasteful, they use these guys in small groups to probe Ukr lines , in frontal infantry daylight attacks, if they find them, the Russians use artillery and air strikes to heavily pound Ukr positions, then they use antoher Penal frontal infantry attack again to probe the same lines, rinse and repeat. The Wagner regulars are used as minders to keep the convicts from retreating, Wagner regulars are used in night time probes since they are well equipped in night sight gear. However this is different than the penal soldier probes in the day(who dont have any night sight) as they are used to recon Ukr positions rather than attack, then use artillery and air strikes in night time artillery attacks on Ukr positions. So yes the Russians are losing say 5-6 X more troops than the Ukrs. but the Russian convicts are very expendable and not running out any time soon however these guys will probably run out some time in 2023, Russian cant keep on doing this forever, Meanwwhile there is politics behind the Russian lines as the Russian army do not want wagner to succeed in Bakhmut and doing its best to hamper them by denying and delaying supplies to the wagner as the Russian logistics system is still mostly run by the Russian army. thought Wagner is trying to change that. The Chechens are also helping Wagner in Bakhmut and have their own command independent from the Russian army. Chechens and Wagner regulars are used in the night time probes in Ukr lines. As for the Ukrs they are defending with several lines of defenses, in trenches and hardened fortified positions, also under ground networks behind the lines, very well defended. and also while the Ukrs troops have lost a significant number of men , Ukr manpower is not affected much and can still field a lot more into the battle. Also Ukr morale is still high , highly motivated to fight . Also Ukr artillery is mainly targetting Russian logistics behind the lines. Hampering Russian artillery usage. since Russians like to use massive amounts of ammo so that is why the Russians are not exactly able to use their aritllery effectively in bakhmut as they would like due to disrupted logistics. Also the wagner penal troops are very poorly motivated, so that is why you get breakthrus in Ukr lines like Wagner penal troops manage to capture Ukr positions and they easilly get pushed out or destroyed in the resulting Ukr counterattacks. , yep wagner and the chechens will not risk their troops in holding positions. That is why you get positions changing hands all the time. RInse and repeat. and the Wagner and chechens. dont really get much support form Russians regulars.
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how about an analogy of the first chechen war 1995 to 1996. Chechens, high morale, very motivated to fight with strong leadership and continued to fight despite their president getting asssinated during the conflict. Russians. poor morale, poorly motivated to fight, bankrupt economy just came out of the USSR collapse, Boris Yeltsin the Russian pres. at the time, often drunk poor leadership corrupt, war unpopular in Russia. Guess what happened next, Russian broke first , defeated on the battlefield by teh Chechens, Russian generals abandoned their own men who were forced to beg and walk back to Russia . THe same can happen to the Russian army in Ukraine in the 2022 invasion.
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and the 2024 USA presidential elections is pivotal to the final outcome of this war. If Trump wins, war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with a Russian marginal victory, Russia manages to conquer and keep 20 percent of Ukraine in a armistice and the Putin regime survives. If Biden wins , USA and her allies increase the military aid to Ukraine and the Russians may cut their losses and withdraw from Ukraine in exchange for lifting of all sanctions and normalized relations with the west, or wait it out 4 more years of the war hoping a pro peace republican party US pres. comes to office in 2029. The longer the Russians are int eh war , the more their economy cracks, the Russians may fight a long war but I dont think their economy can withstand one. the Russian economy will be in a very bad shape after the war, whether Russia "wins" or loses. and Russian economists warn, the Russian economy can withstand the war until 2025 when the Russian populace starts feeling the economic effects of the war, and the RUssian gov recently put 30 percent of their annual budget to finance the war, hoping to turn Russia into a world class army, I really find that amusing.
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highly agree, you can see signs the Russians are getting desperate like: 1. Their propoganda getting ridiculous like going from saying Ukrs are nazis to satanists. 2. Calling this war a holy war. 3. Firing missles at civilians to get them to surrender. 4. Russians trolls aplenty in social media doing ridiculous propoganda. 5. ballyhooing the capture of small Ukr terrritory at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties(and proud of it too.). 6. Political infighting and circus in the Russian leadership. 7. The usual, Russian troops getting equipped badly , lots of Russian casualties due to drunkeneess infighitng between Russian soldiers etc. How will the Russians break....I agree that central to ending this war is ending the regime of Putin, Putin is removed from power by his death natural or otherwise or he gets removed and isolated from command and control. Most probably by his inner circle . The current state of the war. I think it will not happen yet but the Russians are definitely on the road to defeat. the longer they stay in this war, in this state of command logistics , the way of conducting the war , not much reformed , the worse will the collapse will be. I think his inner circle or military will turn on him when Putin: 1. Orders the use of nukes. 2. massive unrest and economy near collapse. 3. A few more major defeats which causes major losses of Russian soldiers, equipment and territory. As for mobilization, yes this is definiteliy destrablizing Russian society and poliitcs and also a burden to teh Russian economy but I think the Russian people can still take it since thosie being mobilized are the poor and non white Russian ethnics, however more mobilization from those places will result in unrest which needs more mobilization of Russian troops to put down the unrest. Yep Russia is a mess but it will take more time for the Russians to give up the war.
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So positing in this scenario , the nuke war starts in 1953, so instead of the death of Stalin, Stalin starts WW3 . So historically in 1955, USSR had 200 nukes , the USA had around 2500 nukes. So In 1953, USSR would have 150 nukes. In an event of WW3 in 1953, USA would have had enough nukes to nuke both the Chinese and the USSR. So let's say the USA uses 1500 nukes on the USSR, 500 nukes on China. As for Soviet bombers, circa 1953, the longest ranged one which can reach the USA was the TU-4, esssentially a reverse engineered B-29, which can reach Los Angeles or Chicago on a one way suicide run from the edge of USSR territory. the USA on the other hand can hit most of the USSR with B-36s and B-47s and B-29s. Yah let's say the USSR gets lucky manages to nuke NYC, DC and LA but nukes hundreds of cities on the Chinese and Soviet side. The USA would win WW3, USSR and China will not collapse but will be so hard hit and they would become insular nations with their communist govs trying to hold on to power. Their economic systems cant handle the strain and both countries would probably collapse in 10-20 years. Europe would get hit hard with Soviet nukes. US would again marshal plan Europe while isolating the USSR and China. As of 2021, USA is the sole superpower of the world. Even more so than it is now. USSR and China have balkanized into seperate states. With the whole world under the sway of the USA since the 60s. with the collapse of the USSR and China. USA and its allies focus on Space colonization. By 2021, we have moon bases , start of mars colonies. World corporations start becoming more and more powerful. and have so much influence on USA and world politics. It can be said that the USA of 2021 is a corporate run state with both parties as their mouth pieces.
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I think the Japanese would have still tried to fight to retain their empire out of pride and ego, the Japanese would long be fighting American, Soviet, Chinese and Indian funded guerilla rebel movements all over their empire. The Japanese would use overwhelming brutal military force to try to crush them but would be unsuccessful and would be a drain to their resources and worse the Japanese would even lose more resources trying to fund their own factions in South America vs. the Americans., I think the most rebellious parts of their empire would be the the Malay and Chinese regions, and Burma. and yes I think the catalyst for the collapse of the Japanese empire would be the rise of the internet in the late 90sand the tsunami which would a horrible Japanese response would start a general uprising in Indonesia, Malaya, Ceylon, Thailand and spreading to the Philippines, Burma, Indochina. and even to the mainland Chinese puppet states. The Japanese would try to suppress even with the use of nuclear and chemical and bio weapons but this will just illicit massive worldwide condemnation further isolating the Japanese(such as it is) and leading to strong tensions with the USA, India and China, NATO(all nuclear armed). Japan withdraws from major parts of its empire but keeps, Hainan, Formosa, Korea and Manchuria and Hawaii and Pacific islands. the Chinese states are subsumed by the Chinese commies and I dont think they would still keep Maoism, in this timeline Mao is deposed in a coup by his head general Lin Biao(in OTL, his coup failed) in the early 70s but go for authoritarian capitalism which massive American economic investments and the Americans see the Japanese as a military bulwark vs. the much reduced but still existing isolationist Japanese empire who the USA still sees as a grave threat. As for the former Japanese colonies and puppet states in the SEA, the Philippines, Indonesia(also including Brunei and all of Borneo, Malaya(also includes Singapore) join into a huge malay state called Maphilindo with a unique three head of state federated ruling system. its nationalistic authoritarian and not democratic with a very anti Japanese slant. Maphilindo, New Guinea(also including Irian Jaya and Timor) would be turned into Australia(which includes New Zealand and Fiji and Samoa) client states. Indochina would encompass, Vietnam , Laos and Cambodia, Burma , Thailand independent states. Ceylon would become an Indian client state, all of them USA and Chinese supported. So after hte fall of the USSR. the USA now main rival is Japan which has now become a isolationist authoritarian state with North Korea levels of control over the non Japanese populations within eht empire but varying degrees of freedom for the ethnic Japanese.
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in the full view of things, the Russians are in a bit more precarious position than the Ukrainians. the Ukrs have teh backing of NATO and their allies with the total GDP of 42 trillion USD(and those are just from the top ten biggest GDP allies of Ukraine), Russia has a GDP of 1.779 trillion USD with not much support from China, Iran, North Korea, India. Economically the Russians are much outgunned. the Ukrainians are not suffering from internal coups and disorder while the RUssians are suffering from internal coups and purgings of disorderly officers. and getting steady flows of weapons and money in ever increasing amounts form their allies. WHile the Russians are getting degraded, sure you see the Russians becoming better with their tactics more coordinated better logistics but they are suffering from ammo shortages, they are bringing out their antiquated T-55 and 62 tanks to Ukraine and the RUssian ruble is slowly but steadilly degrading. The Ukrs offensive might be a big disappointment but thsi will not stop the Ukrs, and they will still continue to fight on until the Russians are evicted completely from Ukraine including Crimea. THe longer Russia is in this war, the more its miltiary , political situation and economy will degrade.
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I still think Ukraine will win the war. Russia will lose this war. the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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the pushback from the Chicago cops later will be crazy, these gang bangers are stupid, they will get hit very hard later. These criminals are stupid targetting cops. the smart criminal is lay low, dont be obvious, when the cops come be calm, be peaceful obey orders and let your lawyers do the talking. Nope instead you get moron criminals. The Feds and the cops love that since they like shooting these idiots. The Mafia, cartels, triads, biker gangs, real criminal orgs learned this, the young gang bangers are a bunch of morons who have no long term plans.
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well I think the Russian economy is near point of no return, however if the Russians decide hey lets withdraw totally from ukraine, and do a peace treaty with ukraine recognizing 90s borders, then the west will welcome Russia with open arms, lift all sanctions. back to business as usual. However, the longer Russia is in this war, the more its economy gets damaged to the point of no return. The full effects of the war economy will hit Russia after the war is over. and it will not be pretty but the extent of these effects will depend on how long the war goes. The longer the war goes at this rate, the more damaged the Russian economy is. the recovery of Russia after this war is over id dependent on the lifting of all sanctions, back to normal relations and business as usual with the west, and of course political stability and law and order in Russia post war. I think the point of no return will probably be 2026, beyond that you have good chances the Russian economy collapses before or shortly after the war is over. possibly causing a bloody civil war. Its all about the economy.
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and as I have been saying since the start of 2024, Trump is bought and paid for by Putin with billions of FSB money being funnelled to the Rep party super pacs and lobbies through Musk and Thiel. Russian oligarchs own a big chunk of MUsk stocks, and its said Russian oligarch money helped pay for 50 percent of his buy out of twitter. I think the relationship between Musk Trump and PUtin is very interesting . I think the really money man here is Putin, and pulls the strings of Musk and Trump. And Musk and Trump are trying to get full power rule in the USA since for Trump so he does not get prosecuted plus he gets a kick out of it. and Musk well for money and power. For Putin to get out of the Ukraine war with at least his regime intact and also with the upper hand in negotiations. Musk Trump and Putin are very connected in this. power play relationship. Trump also is beholden to putin since PUtin also bankrolled his 2016 presidential run. and Trump its said is indebted to Russian banks and the Russians have blackmail on him. Musk on the other hand, Trump is also beholden to since Musk was used as conduit for Russian money to Trumps 2024 campaign.
as said earlier, they may think they are on top of the world and they won the game....FOR NOW....in fact I can see their relationship falling apart in the next few years and so will the Trump admin fall apart. After Trump and Elon go to prison and their assets frozen by the US gov the new US gov helmed by the demos will get back at Putin hard, they will probably acccuse Russia of massive interference in the 2024 elections and consider it a act of aggression . Not surprised starting 2029 , the relationship with Russia will really be strained with the new US gov with the US gov putting in sanctions on Russia as bad as the Ukraine war sanctions or worse. and Russia by this time, is trying to recover from the Ukraine war. It will hit Putin at the worst time, also combine that with possible crashing oil prices and matching sanctions from the Europeans. will result in economic disaster for the Russians, The removal of Putin from power will be the new US gov 2029 foreign policy in revenge for the disastrous Trump admin .
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my view , depends on what happens in the 2024 USA elections. fi Trump wins, war ends in 2025-2026 wiht a korean war style armistice, Russia probably controls 10-20 percent of Ukraine, no peace treaty both Ukraine and Russia will ready up for the next war. Biden wins, war ends sometime in 2025-2026, with a Ukraine win, as Putin is removed from power via a coup as the oligarchs , power brokers realize the Russian economy cant take another 4 years of war and USA and NATO are steadilly increasing funding to Ukraine. Russian troops withdraw back to Russia, Ukraine also gets back Crimea via negotiation. Formal peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile in Russia , everything is blamed on Putin and his gang.
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my view war ends sometime in 2025 to 2026. it ends with a military rebellion which becomes successful in forcing Putin to flgith with his gov. with significant military fighting within Russia, the loss of central authority like taht means rapid collapse of the RUssian economy, Russian republics , local govs. form their own militias to keep order independent from Moscow. take sides int he civil war. Military rebellion is caused by major Russian defeats in the battlefield. , USA and her allies continuing military aid to Ukraine even raising it after the USA 2024 elections elect a USA pres. who is committed to continuing to military aid ukraine. Russia in civil conflict without central authority means collapse of the Russian army command and control in Ukraine, probably a civli war within the Russian army in Ukraine. Ukrainian army takes advantage of this and does major offensives. Ukraine will win when the Russian fed implodes in civil war. 1.5 years into the war, the Russian political regime is showing major cracks as shown by Prigozhins march to moscow, recent purges of Russian military officers who are speaking out against the Russian political and military command. and in the backdrop the Russians having lost 50 percent of their gains in Ukraine since the start of the war on the defensive vs. a resurgent Ukrainian army which is much stronger than they were at the start of the war still with high morale motivation, better training, better combat doctrine having largely adopted NATO combat doctrine, much better battlefield medical and evacuation of casualties(to NATO military hospitals in Europe and in NATO equipped field hospitals)much better equipped with NATO weapons. while the Russians have to deal with poor morale , relatively poor training, artillery ammo shortages, supply shortages, Russian logistics getting regularly hammered by NATO supplied smart missiles. , a worsening political situation with high ranking Russian officers speaking out vs. Putin and the Russian military command. , worsening economic situation, high casualties in the battleifield, very high cost of war. maintaining their army in Ukraine which is now supposedly 95 percent of the Russian army. along with rising aid to Ukraine by NATO and the EU and her allies all of whom have a combined GDP much dwarfing Russia by 40 times.
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While the NK troop deployments in Ukraine will probably boost Russian combat power, it is not helping Russia win this war, economically the NKs are a burden to the Russians since the Russians spend billions in currency resources etc. paying the NKs to send their troops to UKraine who are then housed fed and armed by the Russians. and the NKs do not help the Russian economy in fact its the other way around since NK is a lot poorer than Russia. Also NK troop quality is questionable, from my sources, NKs have sent 10K to 50K troops in Ukraine, there have already been NK troops in Ukraine since late 2022, special forces types and observers in small numbers not only observing but also taking part in direct combat and NK troops have already died in Ukraine since 2023. NOw the NKs are directly getting involved in the Ukraine war in large numbers and Ive heard the Ukrainians are actively targetting them esp. their officers. These guys are disguised as Buryat, Siberian, even Central Asian troops. As for quality, the NK spec op troops and engineers are good at their job however Ive been hearing they are committing their regular NK troops which are much lower quality, I think the NKs are committing thier lower quality troops to act as cannon fodder however the spec ops are suborned to a Russian VDV division operating in Eastern Ukraine near Kharkiv. Except for the Spec ops. the regular NK troops are directly supplied armed and fed by the Russians and the regular NK troops will be treat as step above a storm Z but still in the meat cannon fodder category as Russian regular ethnic troops.
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and as for the effectiveness of foreign volunteers in the Russian army, I watched a video blog of the Chinese volunteer for the Russian army , so this guy and 20 other Nepalese volunteers were sent to the southern Ukraine in early Nov 2023, After two days they got encircled and only 10 of them were alive hiding in a house while the Ukrainians were shooting outside. by the 5th day they managed to break out but only 5 of them were left alive. Its that bad. Another blog I read a Chinese pro Russian mil blogger volunteered for the Russian army and was hired by wagner and sent to Bakhmut in Jan 2023, he only lasted two days before being KIA. Yep I have heard of Somalians, Syrians, Nepalese , Egyptians, Serbians, Nicaraguans, Chinese Indians Cubans Venezuelans and even a few AMericans Spanish and Italian volunteers in the RUssians army fighting in Ukraine, these dopes dont last long before they become fertilizer or in a Ukrainian POW camp. Heck Ive heard of some African countries like Burkina Faso, Central African republic, Cape Verde etc. secretly sending their Prison convicts to be cannon fodder in Russia. More fertilizer for the soil of Ukraine, good diversity in international food in Ukrainian wheat fields in the future.
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if China invades Taiwan it will be the biggest mistake China has ever made. in its recent history. Like China will face initially Taiwan and the USA. and probably UK and Australian navies will intervene on the Taiwanese side. China will be embargoed even worse than Russia currently, its ports blockaded , and its shipping interdicted by USA and allied navies. If China attacks American bases in Japan and South Korea. You will see the Japanese air force and navy defending itself but also the Japanese navy might intervene in Taiwan. the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu will most likely be quicly overrun but Taiwan itself, well the CHinese might be able to land some troops on the island but it will be slaughter for them, and the Chinese nav and air force will most likely be mauled by the Allied navies in a brutal naval air war. A very bad Chinese military defeat, blockade of its ports, sanctions and embargoes prove to be too much as the CHinese economy is not self sufficient and is very reliant on exports of its manufactured goods and energy imports. take those away well the Chinese economy collapses, possible civil war in China. Xi Xinping will most likely be purged. and a new Chinese commie leadership will take over and order an immideite end to the war. However the damage is done, no one wants to invest in China, all investors pull out never to return. the CCP has lost face with its defeat in Taiwan. in the following years CHina goes through the worst economic depression since the Mao era. You see massive unrest which is responded by military force from the PLA under order of teh CCP, massacres of civilians in major urban centers of China results in widespread unrest and uprisings vs. the CCP, which causes a Chinese civil war, which lasts a decade or two. resulting in China going back to the warlord era of hte 1920s and 30s. China gets balkanized into a bunch of warlord states, independent republics etc. all claiming to be the rightful rulers of CHina. If you thought a possible civil war in Russia was bad post Ukraine war defeat, this is nothing compared to what China will be facing if it invades Taiwan and is defeated.
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I think war might not end in 2025 since the Russians think they are winning and the Ukrainians think they are still strong enough to hold out vs. the Russians. and inflict massive losses on them even though yes the Ukrainians are slowly being ground down. I think Trump will probably not be able to forge a armistice in 2025 so its doubtful that he will aid Ukraine however I do think in this case the Europeans in particular Ukraines allies in the EU , and UK, Canada, Australia will probably step in and dramatically step in and ramp up their support for Ukraine with the possiblity of sending military forces into Ukraine but not fighting the Russians directly, though I do think the Europeans might send in some of their airplanes with volunteer pilots to fight for Ukraine. I think a possible Euro expeditionary force consiting of French, UK, Polish, Italian , Spanish, troops as a special reserve force for UKraine, to prevent a Ukrainian battlefield collapse. which can be a special bargaining chip for Ukraine. also Trump allows Ukraine to purchase weapons and supplies from the USA directly using EU funds. Freezing the battlefield. and continuing the attritional war. What is prompting the Ukrainains to resist is the really odious demands from the Russians for peace which is practically a full surrender of Ukraine. I think Ukraine will fight on and yes the longer the war goes the worse for both sides. hitting the Ukrainians manpower issue making it worse, and hitting the Russians economically , along with the prospect that Russia may have to do a general mobilization will hit his political standing even more. So in this scenario, the Russians may actually say "win" this war by doing a Russian favorable armistice with capturing the Donbass which is Russia's minimum war objective and get to keep say 25 percent of Ukraine. and keep the Putin regime intact and still in power but I think the cost may be so massive that Russia will experience some sort of social economic and political destabilization after the war is over, Yes Russia can spin this one that they won the war, but it will feel that they did not win the war but more like lost the war. I can see the Russians by the time the war ends in this scenario the Russians get 1.5 to 2 million casualties, its military stocks severely depleted. its army despite winning has been humiliated. its economy dangerously in war mode, the Russian elites and population have mostly lost faith in Putin's ability to rule. and while sanctions have been lifted the Europeans are still hostile to the Russians and its not business as usual. Russia starts experiencing high crime rates and even rebellions due to poor economy which starts to hit the Russians hard post war, and hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans returning to Russia. with high unemployment, more repressive Russian gov as putin starts to respond to instability with crackdowns. cost of rebuilding its conquered territories , cost of rebuilding its damaged industries. as well as rebuillding its economy and military. In short Moscow is not in any mood or stomach to do another war and focuses on rebuild. Ukraine on the other hand may have lost the war but it still has control of 75 percent of the country., and its being rebuilt with hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the Europeans and their allies. Also Ukraine gets security guarantees from UK France and other Euro nations. also the Ukrainians rapidly rebuild. with the view of round 2 with Russia in the future. The Ukrainians may have lost the war but will have performed well above expectations. and have managed to get out of this war with a stable gov. the Russians may have won the war but have gotten a growing SOcial economic and political instability post war. and while Putin may want to finish the job and still feels threatened with a possibly future resurgent Ukraine , he does not have the stomach to do so. and when Putin there might be destabilization in Russia . which may trigger a civli war.
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lets see Ukraine kills 400 Russian troops who are legitimate targets in a missle strike. which the Russians were stupid enough to stuff a whole BTG in a building plus ammo and fuel. and the Russian claim they had their revenge killing 25 civlians with no Ukr soldier dead....the Russian leadership is not only pathetic, they are animals, who claim killing civlians is OK and equivalent to killing soldiers. yep moronic since they just encourage the Ukrs to fight to the end. and fight harder...between Russian incompetence , zero motivation vs. Ukrainian high morale and motivation to fight...Russia will lose this war, and the longer Russia stays in this war, the worse it will be for Russia. So when Russia goes into civil war, who will they blame, let's see, USA, NATO, Ukraine, nazis, satanists, jews probably. but wont blame their own people who are the real culprits. heck they might evne say Putin is a victiim, its that pathetic in Russia these days.
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well Ive been saying since 2022, the USA elections of 2024 will determine the final outcome of this war, in my opinion, if Kamala wins esp if the dems sweep the house and senate, well, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war in Ukraine, Russia's economy cannot take 4 more years of war, esp. from what I hear Kamala and her advisory team which will be totally new as she will fire most if not all of Bidens national advisory team and kamala and her team are even more pro Ukraine hawks than Biden and his team. Kamala wants to finish the war in her first term and will probably lift all restrictions on Ukrainian use of USA weapons on Russian soil, massive uptick in US aid to Ukraine, and the western artillery ammo production will be reaching Russian parity by 2025. Not surprised if South Korea becomes a major arms supplier to Ukraine going through USA and Poland to ship weapons and ammo to Ukraine esp. artillery ammo and jets(the South Korean FA-50 which is a very good multi role South Korean combat aircraft and cheapo too). Maybe even Swedish Gripens can be supplied to the Ukrainians in 2025 and the French Mirage 2000 is coming too in early 2025. 2025 will be annus Horribilis for the Russians, and 2025 will also be a pivotal year for the war in Ukraine which I think will see possible pivotal battles like the upcoming Pokrovsk battle which might tip the war to Ukraine's favour . I think in this scenario war ends a Putin's removal from power by Russian elites as the Russians cut their losses to preserve as much of their economy and military , as the Russian economy starts coming apart by 2026 and the new regime now does serious negotiations to end the war on Ukraine's terms. Possibly a Russian defeat at Pokrovsk or some major battle is the cassus belli to have Putin removed. The resulting negotiations will probably result in the Russians withdrawing back to Russia including Crimea, in return the west lifts all sanctions on Russia, unfreezes all Russian assets in the west normalizes relations with the west, and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 90s borders. Also to sweeten the deal and to keep the Russian economy stable, some economic aid to Russia from the USA. Ukraine will win the war with a much weakened Russia economically and militarilly that is turning inward to stabilize its economy and politics. and stabilize law and order. Russia wont be a threat to its neighbours for a few to several decades.
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My view Russia eventually uses nukes in ukriaine sometime in mid to late 2023. NATO military retal vs. the Russians and NATO military intervention in Ukraine, there is a brief tit for tat conventional attacks between NATO and Russia but the war stops. and a armistice happens, with the Russians holding on to 20-25 percent of Ukraine , UN troops deployed to seperate Ukrs and Russian troops. and NATO behind in Ukraine to ensure the armistice holds. and Russia is threatened, if Ukraine is invaded again, there will be war between NATO and Russia. Also total sanctons vs. Russia, is cut off from trade with the west and other nations are pressured to join the sanctions. Russian economy starts to collapse Depiste end of war, strong tensions still remain between NATO/Ukr vs. Russia since Putin is dmenading end to all sanctions and USA and her allies defying Russia and threatening war if Russia attacks again. and saying sanctions will all be lifted if Russia withdraws back to pre war borders. This war would probably be classed as a Russian pyrrhic victory. with Russia keeping 25 percent of Ukraine but losing a major chunk of its army and prestige and its economy collapsing. Russia would be in martial law with a collapsed war economy. also all Russian assets esp. of oligarchs are sequestered all over the world. While the Kremlin is ballyhooing this as a victory and does parades in the Red Square, the mood is bad, in Russia , as millions of Russians run away, Putin mobilizes millions more. and Russians feel they did not win the war in Ukraine. a few years later, in the midst of general unrest in Russia, Putin is deposed. the new Russian gov. negotiates with teh west. to take out all the sanctions in return Russia will withdraw back to pre war borders. and a formal peace with Ukraine. and Russian assurances of non interference if Ukraine decides to join EU and NATO. China makes a lot of invstments into Russia , buying up major stakes in Russian reousrece corporations since the Moscow gov is depserate for cash.
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well the Russians are generating recruits from various sources, besides local Russian civilian conscripts, the Russians have been throwing convicts, arrested migrants from Central Asia, along with volunteers from the third world with nepal, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, parts of Africa, Syria, Central Asia, being prominent. Also a few African states are sending their convicts to fight in Ukraine. However the Russians seem to be mobilizing their local citizenry lately more directly mostly from Central Asia and the Russian far east.
Also the Russians are closing down their prisons, due to lack of prisoners since many have been sent to Ukraine, also the third world foreign volunters while many are not enough. (last estimate I heard they recruited around 50K from various third world countries).
The Russians directly mobilizing their citizenry with a target of 300K men by June, 2024 is a sign that the Russians are preparing for a major offensive and filling up their reserves. As I said earlier you need a lot of ready reserves of troops to exploit holes you tear in the Ukrainian front lines.if You dont have them, well the Ukrainians can simply recover fast enough to form new defensive lines.
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An alternate LKY pres. Malaysia would be the richest country in the ASEAN, and with a much higher land population and resource to play with, it would become the most economically dominant country not only in the ASEAN and perhaps in Asia rivalling that of Japan, south Korea and China. Military wise, it would become the most military powerful country in the ASEAN rivalled that by Indonesia where it has a off an on tense relationship with. The main powerhouse cities of Malaysia would be Kuala Lumpur(the political capital), Singapore(the economic capital, which would be larger in this timeline incorporating the city of Johor) and Penang(the 2nd economic capital). In this Malaysia , while the Malays are the most numerous in population , the Chinese population is large enough to be a rival minority in terms of demographics, also the Indian population is also larger. which the CHinese also use to offset the local Malay population(along with Chinese immigration). Together , the Malaysian Chinese and Indian populations outnumber that of teh local Malays. The Malaysia military is also much more powerful than OTL, one of the strongest and most advanced militaries in Asia. and a strong US ally. Also due to tensions with islamic terrorism and with Indonesia, there is military conscription is all male adult Chinese and Indians.
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also logsitics, Russian logistics is so bad, it cant support a huge army deployment in Ukraine, that is why you get all these news of embarassing suppply dystunctonal Russian army. who cant even provide tents and bandages and are equipping its troops with guns from the 70s and even WW2. Also blame Russian corruption very bad one, culture of promoting ass kissers and firing anyone with ability and that funny Russian culture of always reporting the good news to the boss ...VRANYO culture. all this, has destroyed the RUssian army top to bottom, from command and control, to logistics, and on top of that, Putin micromanaging the Rusian army to defeat, not surprised Putin is so desperate these days he is giving Surovikin more freedom of strategy than he usually does. Meanwhile the Ukr army has much improved from Feb 2022, who can actually inflict major defeats in offensives vs. the Russian army. The Russian army can barely launch major offensives. and btw Bakhmut I dont consider this a major Russian offensive, its a localized one.
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yep its losing the war lets see the reasons:
1. Russia's performance in 2024 is a D, less than satifactory, Russians throughout 2024 captured land area in UKraine 1 percent the country , the size of Luxembourg or Rhode Island New York while suffering 400K casualties. The front has not changed much. and the Russians suffered massive casualties roughly around 3 times more on avearage than the Ukrainians. and the Ukrainians are still fighting hard and have not collapsed. the Russians have not inflicted a strategic operational defeat on the Ukrainains.
2. Ukraine's Kursk offensive captured an area the size of Los angeles in two weeks. in 5 months the Russians recaptured roughly half that territory or an area the size of Denver CO. while suffering 40K casualties. The Ukrainians are still fighting hard and have done counteroffensives, also the Russians had to beg the NOrth Koreans for help to try to evict the Ukrainians from Kursk. a month now after North Korean troop deployments and they reportedly suffered 4K casualties.
3. Ukrainians are drone and missle bombing Russian oil refiniries, ammo depots and factories in Russia itself and the so called vaunted Russian air defense systems seemlingly cannot shoot down Ukrainian drones,
4. Russian economy is starting to break, rising food prices, high inflation rates,
5. Ukrainians significnatly helped Syrian rebels oust Assad and crucial Russian ally.
6. Reportedly 60 percent of Russian artillery ammo and 30 percent of Russian missles are north korean made.
and of all this, Russian elites are reportedly mad at Putin with many Russian military leaders wanting to escalate the war even further with a general mobilizaiton of the populace . If Putin does a general mobilization and war is still a bloody stalemate, that will be the beginning of the end for Putin, just like the Czar Nicholas II of Russia back in 1917 lost his crown due to a failed unpopular war.
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When Biden wins and the Dems sweep the house and senate, its the beginning of the end for Russia.
I think this war will either end two ways:
Putin and his inner circle are removed by the Russian military leadership and a military Junta takes control of Russia and they withdraw from Ukraine. but no Crimea which is up for negotiation. Everything is blamed on Putin and his buddies. but the Russian gov still remains the same. A more moderate civilian leadership takes over but its very much controlled by the Russian military and oligarchs. I think this one happens in 2025 after Joe Biden wns the elections , and the elites surmise better to cut off loses before the war drags Russia down to the point of no return.
2nd way. war goes on , Putin continues to double down, Biden wins the USA elections and continues giving more aid to Ukraine. Russian economy starts crashing by late 2025, with hyperinflation and rising food prices and mass failure of Russian infrastructure leading to thousands freezing to death in winter due to power failure over large parts of Russia. Russian oil exports are cut down significantly due to incrased Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil industry. Ukrainians win major victories remniscnet of late 2022 in 2026. Pushing the Russians back. All these result in widescale civilian protests in Russia to end the war, coupled with large scale disatisfaction in the Russian army and grumblings of mutiny. All these are met with increased repression by the Russian state. Martial law declared. Parts of Russia see open rebellion vs. mobilization. Start of civil war occurs in 2027, probably sparked by killing of large numbers of protesters in Moscow. , which triggers open rebellion in Russia , triggers mutinies in the Russian military and police. As the Russian civil war starts and Putin loses control of hte military, Ukraine launches major offensives which collapses large parts of the Russian army in Ukraine. and the Ukrainians recaptures the territories they have lost as the Russian army in ukraine loses command and control and with a collapse simliar to the collapse of the Iraqi army in Kuwait in 91 . Ukraine eventually recaptures even Crimea as Russia falls into civil war and anarchy.
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Id like to add, the Russian gov does not care, how many non Russian citizens of the Russian federation get killed, the poor non Russian ethnic areas of the Russian fed are the main recruitment areas for the mobilization. they only care when Russians die, so the Russian death chain goes like this ....bottom Russian convicts next non white non christian Russian federation citiznes(Buryats, tatars, Mongols, Chechens, Kazakhs, azeris, muslims etc. ), next up white Russian christian citizens of the Russian federation(Ukrainians, Baltics, Georgians , Armenians etc. ) and lastly white Russians christian citiznes of the Russian federation.
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@ipnorospo3000 Yes I highly agree with you , Russia had so much potential but many of its rulers are idiots , however Me in my lifetime, I have seen Soviet and Russian leaders from Brezhnev to Putin. and I can say Putin is probably the best Russian leader. of them all, however yes he was very good but in the last 6 yeasr his brain was not all there, and yep now we have this problem war in Ukraine, which can undo all the good things Putin has done, and yes while I really do not like Putin of 2014 to 2023, I have to admit he did a lot of good for Russia. but all of that will be erased but his mistakes and short comings. and with him gone , i do not see any capable Russian leader taking over, and also notice Prigozhin has his PMC wagner, I hear Shoigu and a bunch of Russian leaders are forming their own private armies when Putin is gone there will be a power struggle , with private armies that is a civil war.
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and you know what compare this to the battle of Sieverdonetsk in May to June 2022, simliar siege battle , Ukrs army not really prepared a one month battle which cost the Russians about 10K casualties also destroyed the city. However Bakhmut Aug 2022 to May 2023 9 month battle cost the Russians 100K casualties also destroyed the city, hmmm. and the longer it goes the Ukrs get stronger and stronger. and the more Russians lose troops, the more they have to mobilize the more they mobilize the more weaker Putin hold on the country is esp. when you have very costly victories which really dont mean much, Russians trying to desperately ballyhoo this battle as a victory and its pathetic just shows weakmess. yep . and just like the battle of Sieverdonetsk, the Russians just got ruins not much else, Russian fanboys are pathetic and hilarious and desperate too. After this war is over the Russian fan boys will blame everything on Putin and claim they are the victims hahahah. when Ukraine gets everything back including the Crimea, the Russians go into civil war and millions of Russian refugees flee to Europe, EU needs cheapo labour like dig ditches , or cheap hookers just like the 90s, Russians as usual will fill that those jobs.
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the main problem of India is the Indian oligarchy and political families, they are a bunch of corrupt , divisive non progressive morons. They are the ones holding India back, like hey the BJP, are a bunch of Hindu nationalist racists and religious nut cases with teh current PM being currently the most hated man in India. The Congress party, are corrupt as hell(same with the BJP) and has incompetent leaders, like Rahul Gandhi is a moron with possible mental illness. it is also impossible to get someone like Lee Kwan Yu, Park Chung Hee, or a Deng Xiaopeng to get into power as an INdian PM with full absolute power, people like them wouuld not be allowed to be PM in India. India has the same political problems as the Philippines, non progressive corrupt oligarch political dynasties are holding both India and the Philippines back.
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As for reaching a ceasefire in 2023, highly doubt this unless Russia escalates to using nukes. that will cause massive problems for Russia, yes I think it will end the war, but that will result in total economic isolation of Russia, NATO boots in Ukraine, near war with Russia, first military clash between NATO and Russia which I think will be short, more like conventional missle and smart bomb strikes on Russian military units in Ukraine and possibly Crimea and Belarus, and a tit for tat from the Russians on NATO sites in the Baltics, Poland, . but no nuclear exchange. Possble armed clashes at the borders. NATO troops enter Ukraine in force but stay far away from the Russians and demand a ceasefire. and Ukraine goes into NATO protection, armistice with UN troops largest deployment in its history going seperating the Ukrs and Russian military forces. However Russia still is in total economic isolation. with USA EU demanding Russia withdraws to pre war borders before sanctions can be lifted. I can see Putin getting assasinated a few years after the war is over. and normalizaton of relations between Russia and NATO can begin.
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well my view is that the Ukraine war is determinate or the US electons of 2024, war I thin will end in 2025 determinate on who wins int he USA elections of 2024, Trump wins, Trump pressures the Ukrainians to agree to a korean war style armistice whcih the Russians get to keep whatever they conquered Putin regime survives and manages to spin that they took Ukrainian land and that is a victory. Biden wins, Russian elites cut their losses and overthrow Putin in 2025 withdraw from Ukraine including the Crimea in return for a formal peace treaty with ukraine normalizaton of relations with teh west and lifting of all sanctions. In the event of a Russian "victory" , the Putin regime lasts 5 to 10 years more but the economy is damaged by the war costs , ongoing sanctions. It collapses after a coup removes Putin, and Russia descends to disorder and chaos, In the event of a Russian defeat, Russia undergoes a short period of disorder but manages to stabilize itself quicky however the new Russia that emerges is one where the oligarchs control the Russian gov and leaders and Moscow becomes weak , Russian provinces become more authonomous,
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I think the real reason why Putin invaded was that his friend Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk was put under house arrest shortly before the war started. This really angered Putin and I think this one was the trigger that pushed Putin to start the war, and Putin was in isolation and taking lots of steroids to deal with covid 19 , so he went loopy. Also his generals kept telling him that Ukraine military was shit, fed him wrong info. however they knew the Ukrainian army was equipped with lots of Javelin and NLAW top attack ATGMs so they put cope cages on their tanks even before the war. that did not help much. Putin's generals fed him false info since they knew if they told the truth they would be sacked. Putin in his whack brain thought he knew everything and knew stuff better than his generals. and the generals played along. Even the FSB played along. So Putin who is actually risk adverse and a careful planner and opportunist thought he could win fast and easy versus Ukraine and that the Ukrainian people would welcome him and he could conquer the whole country in like 3 days or at worse 3 months with minimal casualties. Well he failed and he failed really badly. now nearly 3 years later and 700K casualties, tens of thousands of destroyed Russian tanks , IFVs, APCs, , Russian miltiary embarassed and looked at lot weaker than they were portraying pre war. struggling vs. Ukraine which Russia has 10X the economy and military firepower and 5X the population and only controls around 20 percent of the country and struggling to win taking massive casualtiies est. to be 1K casualties a day. and the Ukrainians have captured a large territory in Kursk Russia and 3 months later the Russians are still struggling to kick them out and have called the North Koreans to help send soldiers, artillery ammo and missles. and the Russian navy lost at least two dozen ships including the Black sea flagship moskva vs. Ukraine who doe snot have a navy , and the Russians are operating from the Caspian sea due to the Ukrainians managing to evict the Russians from the Black sea using drones, and the Ukrainains are also bombing Russian cities , oil refiniries and ammo depots with drones. Its that bad for Russia. This war has been a disaster for Russia. and even if the Russians manage to get a peace deal out of this where they walk away with the Putin regime intact, this war has really shaken the confidence of the Russian elites in Putin and really damaged the Russian economy and military. This will have severe repercussions post war as both Russia and Ukraine try to recover and rebuild getting ready for round 2.
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this dealer addict, is a COMPLETE MORON...like OK Im dealing drugs, the best dealers go under the radar, follow the rules esp. with DRIVING...so the cops dont pull them over and find the drugs in the car, how simple is taht that these morons cant understand it. and bet you this shit will be trying to charge the cops with brutality. wont work. what a stupido. if I were his boss, and he lost be kilos of heroin, Id have a hit on him in prison. wow, so the moral of the story, please drug lords, check out your employees when you hire them to sell your drugs, sorry so what if he the bro of your sister, shit if the bro is no good you dont hire them.
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Philippines in a timeline where Malaysia is ruled by LKY would be tne 2nd richest country in the ASEAN and close ally of Malaysia. much more stable and more prosperous. and still have US bases on it, Malaysia would also have US bases. moros would be mostly under control and Zamboanga and Jolo would be one of the richest parts of the PH as economic hubs to Malaysia. However Indonesia would be more unstable and more hostile to Malaysia being like the Pakistan of the ASEAN. Indonesia is still pissed off at Malaysia for kicking it out of Borneo. and Timor. Also Indonesia in this timeline is a bit more unstable and has a larger military with a confrontational stance vs. Malaysia and Australia. and known as a hub for Islamic terrorism in the ASEAN. SEATO exists in this timeline with USA, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia , Philippines, Brunei being members. aimed vs. China, Indonesia and Myanmar. Malaysia has complicated relations with China , China is one of Malaysias top trading partners and also lots of Chinese immigration into Malaysia but it has tense political relations with China. and pissed off at China with China's close support of Indonesia. Indonesia having kicked out most of the Chinese minority in a series of bloody pogroms and nationalized Indo CHinese business interests and having virtulent anti Chinese rhetoric, has close relations with China.
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Its worse , its not only very high crime rates but also possible break up of parts of Russia into independent states. Many of these recruits are from the poorest parts of Russia which have been historically been known to revolt against Moscow. More Russian troops died in Ukraine than Afghanistan in the 80s. Psychologically damaged know how to use military weapons have combat experience, abused by the Russian gov. , discriminated since they are poor, dont come from the rich parts of Russia, not Russian white, blamed for losing the war, no employment , not even paid for their miltiary service, and the communities they go back economically devastated, abusive corrupt Moscow appointed local officials, the locals realize the Russian gov lied hard to them about the war, you will not only have one Chechnya of the 90s, you might have a dozen of them. THe Russian miltary greatly weakened cannot deal with them.
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I have been saying it for a long time, since the war started, the Ukrainians are going to win this war and badly defeat the Russians(and the Russians are badly defeating themselves too with their incompetence). I see Putin removed by the Russians claiming he died of "natural causes" probably poisoned, there is a power struggle and a group of Russian military civilian officials and oligarchs take over . War ends chaotically for the Russians. Russians withdrawal is chaotic like the first chechen war, the Russian gov. is in chaos nad bankrupt. however there is a cessation of hostilities and a ceasefire, after a few weeks new Russian gov takes over and annouces a complete withdrawal from Ukraine except Crimea. However the withdrawal is chaotic and Russians start looting and ransacking whatever areas they still occupy and Ukrainians unit have to come in and fight them. Russians abandon many of their vehicles and go back to Russia on foot or in stolen vehicles. Russian gov begs NATO for assistance in withdrawing the RUssians, the RUssian troops in Ukraine are abandoned these Russians troops m any go on a rape and looting rampage in the Russian border areas. fighting with local Russian security units. These russian troops are never paid. for their time in Ukraine, they go back to Russia abused discriminated blamed for losing the war. going back to unemployment shame no paid at all, but they know how to kill people they have military experience know how to use military weapons, many of them are ex convicts from Russian jails. they go back and use their newly acquired skills to cause chaos in Russia and Russia is in political and eocnomic chaos with a collapsed economy and a unstable moscow gov. Since the Russian gov is bankrupt, the Russian army is mainly demobilized. and whatever monies they have is put on keepng the economy stable. and security services paid. With a demobilized Russian army there is a breakdown of law and order all over Russia. also The EU USA and their allies are not lifting all the sanctions until Russia gives back ALL plus the Crimea of Ukrainian territory back. A deal is maide to lift all the sanctions plus economic aid if Russia gives back the Crimea plus hands over many Russian military leaders for trial in the Hague for war crimes.plus democratic electins. In the meantme China and Turkey take advantage of the chaotic poltically environment and support secessionist Russian republics to go independent esp. in the Caucasus , Central Asia, Far east and Siberia. within 5 to 10 years, Russia loses 50 percent of its territory to secession. and these republics become independent puppet states of the Turks and Chinese. the break up is relatively peaceful just like the breakup of the USSR. Russia however within 10-20 years. while smaller leaner is easier to govern is still a huge country(Canada would now be the largest country in the world followed by the USA. ) but Russia is still #3. and Russia will boom again with a democratic western leaning gov. in 20 years. having removed its shackles to the USSR. and become a country with western european values and governance. and possibly in the 2050s become a EU member. Effects: Armenia will probably lose half of its territory to teh Azeris and Turks in a bloody war after the fall of the Putin gov. Armenia becomes a garrison state. in the Caucasus. Later becomes part of the EU. NATO is dissolved later as the RUssian threat has been taken out and replaced by EU military alliance. Turkey is in chaos after Erdogan dies. in the next 5 to ten years. relations between EU US and Turkey are very much strained after the very bloody third Armenia Azeri war.
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as I said so many times before, the USA 2024 elections White house, senate and house will be pivotal to who wins in the Ukraine war. A Kamala win which I think is most likely to happen even better with a dem control of the senate and house will cause a massive worldwide political tsunami esp. in Russia, this will really demoralize the Russian elites who probably put all their chips in with Donald Trump. Kamala harris will probably be different than Joe Biden, and finish the war with a Ukrainian win with massive uptick in USA aid to Ukraine, while Putin himself will continue on, the Russian elites will be sharpening their knives for him. also with his back to the wall Putin can order nukes used however from a FSB memo back in 2022, there are orders not to listen to Putin the old man, if he ordered nukes used. with a Kamala harris win Putin might be deposed in 2025 or in 2026. and the new regime will probaby negotiate for peace with Ukraine with the Ukrainian upper hand. not surpirsed if the Russians withdraw from all of Ukraine including Crimea in return for the lifting of all sanctions plus normalized relations with the west and formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 91 borders and a few years after Ukraine gets inducted into the EU and NATO. Also all Russian assets are unfrozen in the west, plus the west probably gives money to Russia to forestall economic collapse. This will have massive effect on the countries of Belarus, and Georgia where there will be changes to their govs , becoming very pro EU and pro USA. Not surprised if both countries including Armenia apply for EU and NATO membership. The far right parties in the west will be most affected since their paymaster Russia stopped funding to them. It will massively affect them. as they will experience downturns even collapses. Far right in the west will experience chaos. Meanwhile China will have a change in gov. Xi Xinping wont get a 4th term in fact, in the next elections the Shanghai group will come back to power and try to get relations with the west back on track meanwhile exploiting the chaos in Russia post war. Russia goes into turmoil worse than the 90s but not yet on civil war level, I think Russia will lose territory in the Caucasus with Chechnya and Dagestan probably seceding and becoming Turkish puppet states. I think the Russian fed stays together but with a weaker Moscow gov and Russian military control. The Russian military will be a shadow of its former self, while many of its recruits join the PMCs the private armies of the Russian oligarchs who rule Russia from behind controlling the Russian federal gov. Russian provinces and republics will probably have a lot more autonomy and have their own militias. The Russians provinces and republics I think will stay with teh Russsian fed. pay lip service ot Moscow but in reality practically independent formulating their own foreign policies, the Russian federation becomes a Russian confederation with a weak Russian moscow gov and Russian army meanwhile the country's real masters are the Oligarchs , their PMCs and regional governors and their militias. The Russian oligarchs will probably cooperate with one another (while doing politicla maneuvering behind the scenes) but there might be conflict with provincial and republic militias. Meanwhile USA, China and Turkey meddle with all this trying to influence Russian oligarchs, local governments for their own ends mainly to do with natural resources deals and foreign policy issues. Russia becomes a great game of influence between USA China and Turkey. Heck not surprised if the Ukrainians play strongly here. There is real danger that the Russian federation undergoes a break up several years after the war is over. simliar to what happened to the USSR esp. in the Caucasus and east of the Urals. Probably done peacefully as the Russians dont really have a strong army as it wont recover from the Ukraine war for a very long time.
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Putin's days are not only numbered but so is Russia's , Putin's actions will have great effects on the Russian federation, I forsee after the war is over , post Putin Russia has lost the war, Political economic and social chaos in Russia. Something similiar to 1917 all over again. which will last for a few years. I dont think it will be a civil war, but it will be the breakdown of law and order, in Russia, collapse of the Russian economy, many PMCs and militias popping up all over the place and being the law and order of the area, power plants break down, many areas of Russia without power and internet, criminals , anyone with the gun and can organize become the new rule of law. Millions of Russian refugees will flee to their neighbours many will die when winter sets in and they get stuck at the borders in the dead of winter out int he open. with inadequate winter clothing and heating. Millions of Russians will die from this time of chaos which will last a few years, not only due to murder but also to the breakdwon of transport infrastructure, and the Russian ruble becoming worthless, Russian economy effecitvely becomes a barter economy where USD EUro UK pounds, Chinse Yuan and crypto are accepted and Russian ruble is toilet paper which makes food expensive and valuable , also millions of pensioners will lose their pensions and have to cope with hunger and bad winters. Im not surprised if UN Central Asians, Chinese and NATO troops are forced to deploy to Russia to maintain peace and order . and to stop the massive flow of refugees to their countries.
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I predict in 2029 to 2033, ETH will lead the entire crypto market as smart contracts layer 1s 2s and their attendant dapps and roll ups will be the stars as they are much more suitable for crypto adoption into the world financial services and assets, more than BTC. since smart contracts not only function as stores of value but also much faster, cheaper transactions costs, a bit more flexible as payment options, and adoption into investments, staking, lending , cross adaptability with other non crypto markets. BTC will still be in the top ten and will still reach all time highs but less compared to certain top layer 1s. I predict ETH will have a 4 trillion USD market cap by 2029 to 2033. and will be the crypto standard. As for the layer 1s mentioned here I predict the following will survive in the next bull run in 2029 to 2033 and go to all time highs: ETH(I predict 35K USD by 2029 to 2033), AVAX(930 USD), ATOM(270 USD), SOL( 1830 USD). NEAR( 140 USD), DOT(380 USD) , BNB( 4720 USD). FTM( 22 USD).
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this is a temporary problem, you have to give up land and inflict as much damage to the enemy when they take said land, then later take it back when they are properly weakened, you do not put your best forces in the cauldron to blled the russians , you put your most expendable ones. which the Ukrs high command did. I think the Ukrs command is not perfect and yes they made mistkaes but then again this is war live and learn. this is not yet an end to the war and while a critical battle notice the Russians are advancing slow but getting a LOT of losses. the goal is to keep up , bleed the Russians bad. Yes the Russians can replace their losses, yes the Ukrs will lose a lot of men but at the end of the day in a strategic sense, this is making the Russians lose more hurts their economy more. The goal here is to collapse the Russian economy, yes it seems the Russian economy is taking it quite well, but this is for now, the longer the Russians are in the war and commiting their forces , the more they are expending a lot of money to fund the war, the more it hurts their economy which is currently under siege from bad sanctions from the west. and it will get worse for them, esp. in 2023, when I think a global recession will happen due to fed raising rates to tame infaltion, and oil prices will collapse this will really hurt their economy and when that happens , well they wont have the monies to finance the war. and that will have a strong direct effect on Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine. and if you look back in history, that was how the USSR collapsed that was how the Russians lost Afghanistan(as the USSR) and the 1st Chechen war. Russia is a net oil and gas exporter and is dependent on high energy prices for a good economy , Russian economy is not diversified. So when oil prices are high , well notice the Russians go to war with Georgia, syria and now Ukraine, when its low, they dont do anything.
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Allan Lichtman is DA MAN...the most accurate election predictor since I started following him in 1988. Yep so far if you look at the keys. 2 keys are definitely false.(Key #1 Reps control the house since the last midterms . Key #12: Biden is not a charismatic pres. .)
and the rest are currently true. (#2. no serious contest to Biden's position in the dem party though lately after the first debate you might have stronger contenders but looking at the DNC line up vs. Biden they look all uncharismatic nowhere near the backing of Biden), #3 Biden is the sitting pres. and still running for a 2nd term. 4. There is no significant 3rd party to challenge biden in fact RFK threatens Trump more than biden. 5. strong economy no recession all time high stock markets. 6. Strong long term economy, yep massive improvement from the last covid crash of 2020. 7. Yes Biden has made several major policy changes during his term like his Covid decrees etc. 8. no unrest, the pro palestine unrest is bullshit, did not affect the USA much, irritating but the Trumpers might cause problems.like BLM did in 2020. 9. No scandal, hunter biden went to jail , he has been forgotten. 10. No foreign military failure, both the Ukraine and Gaza wars while tense have been managed well and not escalated. 11. Bidens decision to aid the Ukrainians massively stopped the Russians from conquering Ukraine, I consider that a major foreign policy success and currently Russia is stuck in a costly unwinnable war in Ukraine and getting desperate. 13. Trump is not charismatic , he is trying to be like fist pumping after his attempted assasination trying to emulate Reagan well this did not garner him more support in fact it just galvanized his supporters.
the keys I consider shakey are keys #2, 3 due to the aftermath of the first debate, and key #8 for possible 2020 style riots by the Trumpists after their lord and saviour Trump got assasianted. However I do think all that will pass with Biden getting nominated with strong backing during the DNC in the next month. Also Biden has to come back strong in the 2nd debate. Also the attempted Trump assasination has to be treated reallyi carefully by BIden to avoid the trumpists going crazy and doing shit. but so far Biden has been very conciliatory to Trump. acted like a true gentleman
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The worst so far, I think there are more worst months to come for Russia, I predict 2023 will be the worst year for RUssia in the war, I think the war will end in early 2024. Putin gets desperate enough to use low yield tactical nukes in Ukraine to prove a point and bring the Ukrainians to the peace table. By that time Russia only control 10 percent of Ukraine as the steadilly improving Ukrainian army has pushed back the increasingly decrepit Russian army, along with collapsing economy, and the Russian ploy by turning off the gas taps to the europeans to force them to stop supporting the Ukrainians failed. has pushed a desperate Putin to order nuke strikes on the Ukrainians. The Russians say that their use is legal since they already annexed these territories and its Russian territory and they have the legal right to defend Russian territory with any force they want. This stops the war, as total sanctions are imposed on the Russians and anyone else who trades with Russia are warned they will get the same sanctions and even more weapons are sent to Ukraine from USA NATO and their allies. A general ceasefire occurs , Korean war style peace talks happen but the peace talks are stalled due to Russia's insistence that all economic sanctions be removed, NATO and Ukraine counters Russia has to withdraw back to pre war borders before the sanctions are removed . NATO also threatens that if more nukes are used , NATO will intervene militarilly in Ukraine which includes sending military forces into Ukraine, NATO mobilizes DEFCON 2, Russia by this time holds around 10 percent of Ukrainian territory having lost Kherson and most of the south. While the peace talks are going on and a ceasefire is supposedly in place this is used by the Ukrainians and Russians to regroup and resupply, there are skirmishes along the line, as well, the Russians try a major offensive which fails badly but the Russians dont use nukes. NATO pressures Ukraine not to do offnesives into Russian occupied territories and just defend what it has gotten so far. NATO has massively upped support for Ukraine and US, ex warsaw pact and possibly even French warplanes are given to the Ukrainians. Peace talks go on until Early 2024 where Putin suddenly dies of "natural causes" or goes into exile to Syria. A new moderate Russian gov. takes over and after some chaos, peace talks finalize in 2024 with the Russians total withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory including Crimea. in exchange for massive economic aid , lifting of all sanctions, and the proviso that no reperations or war crimes will be pursued by the Ukrainians or their allies or any Russian political and military leader. By this time the Russian economy is in near collapse and there is unrest in Russia, new Russian gov. blames all their problems on Putin and his inner circle there is a purge in the RUssian gov. and military , the RUssian withdrawal is also chaotic. In the next ten years Russia slides into chaos as the new gov. is not able to stabilize Russia , and the Turks and Chinese actively support Russian secessionist groups in the Caucasus , Central Asia and East of the urals. which results in Russia losing 50 percent of its pre war territory to secession since the Russian army has practically been cut down due to Russian gov. being bankrupt and cant pay its troops. as for the markets, the NASDAQ will experience its worst crashes since the dot.com bubble/911 back to back crashes from 2000 to 2001 where the nasdaq crashed by 80 percent of its all time high in 2000. I can see the nasdaq crashing to 4K pts. Bitcoin to 5K USD. menawhile, in US politics, De Santis is nominated as the rep party nominee for US pres. elections in 2024, narrowly beating Trump who cries foul. De Santis wins the 2024 US pres. elections. The war has caused mrkets to crash hard worldwide and the US gov. has to print more trillions to save the markets, in short more massive QE lowering interest rates and US inflation goes up to 30 percent. , after the war, US FED raises the interest rates to 30 percent to defeat a 30 percent inflation rate, the woes of the US economy helps De Santis win , and De santis starts lowering Interest rates during his term, US economy booms due to post Ukraine war tensions massively go down, and more friendly relations with China. The years of 2020 to 2024 are known as years of worldwide economic recession. caused by Covid and the Ukraine war. I can see Nasdaq go to all time highs in 2029.
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THis is what I think will happen: Russia withdraws from Ukraine except for Crimea but withdraws from crimea after western pressure. Putin regime is gone, the new regime wants good relations with the west, so back to 90s borders with Ukraine, a formal peace treaty, I dont think Russia will pay much in reparations since it will be deemed bankrupt with a collapsed economy. All sanctions will be lifted from Russia and possibly even western aid and resumption of business as usual since the West wants the new Russian regime to be pro west and stable. but western investors dont return to Russia but very slowly do so. A lot of unrest in Russia esp. the Russian army collapses in mass mutinies due to a lot of soldiers not being paid due to the Russian gov being bankrupt and there is a lot of political chaos and infighting. Russia slowly goes into some sort of civil war situation, with the Moscow gov having a fragile weak grip on the country which is increasingly governed semi independently or independently by regional entities making decisions independent of Moscow. and forming their own PMCs and miitias. Even Rusian corporations , Russian political factions oligarchs from their own PMCs. some regions of Russia secede like Chechnya, etc. Lots of political instability leads to economic chaos , social unrest collapse of law and order and many part of Russia. I think eventually what happens is that what emerges as a state is still the Russian federation but with Russian provinces and republics having a bit more independence from Moscow. Moscow , St. Petersburg will still be centers of Russian political power and economy but their hold on large parts of Russia will be diminished. But not after suffereing a decade of bloodshed, economic collapse, millions of Russian refugees leaving Russia for other countries. The new Russian federation post putin that comes out of a decade long turmoil will be a federated decentralized state of many states united on mutual protection but each state acts mostly independently of the captial and seat of gov Moscow. (however they do have open borders, free trade, and a national currency). the Russian oligarchs collectively will make sure the sitting Russian pres. in Moscow is controlled by them, they will not allow a person like Putin to rule Russia again.
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I think so , I believe this is linked to the Ukraine war, Putin probably paid off Maduro to invade Guyana to distract US attention from Ukraine, just like Gaza. I think there will be war if venezuela invades, in fact, since Guyana is a British commonwealth and OAS member, I can see USA, UK and probably Canada, Australia , NZ military intervening. with possibly military units from Brazil, Argentina, and other OAS nations
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My view of the evolution of military strength for both sides: Russia has gotten militarilly weaker by 50 percent from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023. (suffered 200 to 250K casualties, around 10K total land vehicles lost, 200 aircraft lost, with a stable but weakening economy whcih I think is in reality 25 percent weaker than pre war). . Ukraine has gotten military stronger by 50 percent from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023(suffered around 100 to 150K casualties lost about 2500 vehicles , 100 or so aircraft, economy is only kept alive by the west). I think the war will heat up in 2023 as Ukraine wants to win the war before the US elections and will do offensives. Russia will hang on. to its winnings. probably mobilize more troops. war will heat up even more in 2024. as both sides try to influence the US 2024 elections. with the Ukrs trying to inflict major defeats on the Russians, and the RUssians escalating to try to scare the US voters. and this leads to 2025. the year of decision. by this time, I think the Russians will be exhausted by the losses they have taken, I can see 1 million Russian casualties by 2025. with unrest in Russia due to multiple mobilizaitons, battlefield defeats and a possible economic depression that affects the Russian population. as the Russian economy goes more to a war economy I think by 2025, the Russian war economy woulid be 75 percent of the total Russian economy. which will have a very bad effect on the Russian citizens like food shortages, rationing cuts in welfare or welfare and pensions not being paid or significiantly cut. Public works not being done so Russian roads infrastructure become shabby and become even dangerous. the ruble starts turning into the Zimbabwean currency with sky rockering food prices.
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well looking at it, the Russians are living on borrowed economic time. and the west has not brought out its big guns yet, yes Russia is subjected to very bad sanctions from the west, supposedly the worst ever but its not the worst, the worst would be total sanctions, like total cessation of trade with Russia from the west, the tightening on loopholes regarding trade with the west with Russia. sequestration of all Russian assets, including all oligarch assets, deportation of all Rusian citizens esp. kids of oligrarchs living in the west. and forcing all the other countries in the world to levy economic sanctions on Russia or else. they get sanctioned to. what would prompt that, Russia using nukes in Ukraine, war with NATO,(this would result in Russian cargo ships, planes being impounded in the west, & blockade of Russian ports)Russia using chemical weapons on a wide scale esp. on Ukr cities. This would really bring down the Russian economy.
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Yes looks like trump did and I already figured this one out when he was elected, I was just hoping he will be his usual backstabbing trump self. and backstab putin but looks like the past week just proved he was a pUtin paid stooge all along. As I said many a time, Trump and the entire rep party has been paid for in billions of USD in Russian oligarch money funnelled through Musk and Thiel and others. to Rep super pacs. with the express purpose to get Trump elected. and also the Russians have compromising intel on Trump.
I predict the peace talks will fail, the Ukrainains backed up by the EU Canada will refuse Trump imposed peace deals and the war will rumble on and continue. I think Trump pissed off by this , puts 25 percent Tariffs on the supporters of Ukraine and Ukraine itself, NATO supporters of Ukraine will increase their defense spending and armaments production and support Ukraine.
USA will probably remove tariffs from Russia, normalize relations while prohibiting arms sales to Ukraine or supporters of Ukraine and posible 25 to 50 percent across the board tariffs on supporters of Ukraine who will be defiant. Basicaly a brutal trade war occurs between most of NATO (except for Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia) vs. the USA. USA also withdraws most troops from Europe in the guise of military spending cuts and trump even tells the Russians they have the green light to attack NATO nations.
The Russians and Chinese are much delighted by all this, however this done not stop the war, in fact, the Ukrainians with all constraints removed with increased EU UK and Canadian support continue the war and focus on defense and attacking Russian oil infrastructure with increased intensity, with the USA now acting like an ally of the Russians. US navy escorts Russian shadow fleet, intel is given on Ukrainian plannned attacks to the Russian from the USA. etc.
Meanwhile a consitutional crisis is rising in the USA, with Trump trying to control the judiciary and trying to control the FED. as trump interferes with the 2016 house and senate elections and allegations of voter fraud occurs calls for Trump to be impeached increases as the demos control the house and senate with Trump not recognizing the results. as USA economy goes into recession with rising inflation and there is protests in the streets of the US cities. Trump I think calls for martial law and the arrest and dissoluation of Senate and congress and this results in more chaos and unrest.
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Russia also has an international contingent from many countries fighting for them however its not as large as the international contingent fighting for Ukraine. The largest foreign fighters fighting for Russis come from Serbia , Armenia, Turkey, Iraqis, Syrians, Latinos, even some from Spain , Germany, USA, and Italy. The reasons are mixed, you have Islamics who joined to fight against NATO fighting alongside pan slavic ultra nationalists, with Neo Nazis from the west, with socialists and communists. Some of the larger groups like the Armenians and Serbians have their own special units , the rest are mixed up with other units. usually PMCs, and regular units. The international contingents fighting for Ukraine have their own units and are mixed together but their main reasons for fightting for Ukraine are united in kicking out the Russians from Ukraine.
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Well if yoiu say comfortable under Brezhnev, that means no breadlines of the 80s. otherwise when compared to the west, Soviet and allied lifestyles are several steps down, similiar to a few steps up the poorset of the 3rd world but western aligned countries. Im from Canada and I remember going to the USSR in the early 80s, and remembered it like the tourist areas were clean , good but the the infrastructure looked old and run down, lots of KGB agents in our hotel the Cosmos, the only 5 star hotel in Moscow in the 80s local citizens had shabby clothes, only cars you see are Russian cars, and a few mercedes benzes driven by Communist officials. and everyone is trying to make a buck out of you since you are a tourist they think all tourist from western countris are millionaires, I remember I was eating in the main resto in th Cosmos hotel, when a waiter approached me and was selling stuff, I bought like several bottles of beluga cavair for like 5 USD each. ( or 3 rubles in 1982). The waiter was a funny guy, he told me he only accepts USD, UK Pound, Deutchmarks, Franc but NO Japanese Yen and Italian Lira hahahaha. He told me those were mickey mouse money and he cant change them. He told me while the Ruble was officially strong , it was also mickey mouse money hahahaah. he offered to change 1 USD to 1 Ruble when the official exchange rate was 1 Ruble = 1.25 USD . He was curious about Canadian dollars though but did not accept it since it was unknown money . We exchanged in his view useless mickey mouse money I bought a bunch of Warsaw pact , North Korean won, from him. and I gave him a bunch of Philippine pesos, Canadian dollars, Hong Kong dollars , Taiwan dollars. in exchange haha. He actually said the so called not accepted western currencies were a lot more valuable than the Ruble and warsaw pact currency haha.
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Erdogan is probably getting super cheap Russian gas and oil and the USA and EU NATO need the Turks so much they are probably ignoring this one since the Turks have a super strong leverage in the Ukraine war which the USA, Ukraine and EU are desperate to win. Not only that, the Turkish economy has not collapsed yet despite Erdogan's misguided attempts at economic management due to support from the USA and EU. probably giving Turkey a lot of line of credit. if this war did not happen Turkish economy would have collapsed by now and Erdogan would have been kicked out of power. The Ukraine war is probably the best thing that happened to Turkey as the Turks can leverage heavilly the EU and the USA. Erdogan is a master at playing both sides. After teh war , Turkey will be in an excellent position to exploit a post Putin Russia , probably supporting Muslim secessionist groups in the Caucasus and Central Asia in conjunction with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Iran of course will meddle. USA and EU will probably reluctantly allow this post Putin since a strongly weakened but still stable Russia is probably the goal of the USA and NATO since a really weakened but stable pro west Russia will be a great asset for the west. so that its not a geopolitical threat anymore. Post Putin Russia will undergo a period of chaos probably lasting a decade or two where Russia loses 50 percent of its territory to secession, a bunch of new countries will be formed from the ashes of the Post Putin Russian federation losing territories in the Caucasus , Siberia, Central asia, the Far East. In the aftermath of the war, the NATO will probably be disbanded . EU will have a informal military alliance in partnership with USA UK and Canada, as with Russia now really weakened, the Europeans will feel that there is no threat to their security. EU and USA while still in friendly terms and sort of a partnership will be rivals a few generations from now. and the EU will have its own power bloc but still in partnership with the American bloc. USA will be in close partnership alliance with UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea. New Zealand . India will have its own bloc while technically neutral even a member of BRICS its a rival to China and leans to the USA and EU blocs. BRICS will be a rival to EU and USA blocs, it will be a economic alliance and an informal military alliance. with China as the dominant state and with member states in Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, the ASEAN is still there and develops an informal military alliance with its member states , there is a Muslim alliance among Muslim countries where Iran is also a partner despite political rivalry with Saudi Arabia, this is also a economic informal military alliance. WIth Russia gone, China patches relations with the USA but the rivalry is still there and will come up again from time to time.
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as for the Russians starting to talk to the Americans, yep , that means they are saying shit we need to end the war since we made a grave mistake , we may not win it, probably trying to talk to the Americans for a parlay. And Kissinger is Putins's close friend, in fact, not surprised Putin has blackmail on Kissinger probably with Russian hookers. and probably paid Kissinger lots of money, so if Putin stooge Kissinger, Tucker Carlson, Oliver Stone etc. are all saying that the Ukrainains should compromise and give up land to stop the war, you knows that Russia is super desperate heck Im not surprised the Ukrainians actually win with the Russian economy collapsing, the longer the war goes, the more strain on the Russian economy there is , supposedly Russia is spending close to a billion USD per day to just maintain the war in Ukraine. With very strong sanctions from the west, and the war going longer, the Russian economy will probably collapse or near collapse , then war ends when the Russians just call it quits with Putin probably dead imprisoned out of power. and there is political chaos. The new Russian gov. will blame PUtin for the war, Putin is probably dead at this time, and the new Russian gov. purges many Russian civilian and military officials for the war. The Russians wont have the money to evacuate their troops back to Russia so they just leave them in Ukraine. Post war, Im not surprised not only does Ukraine take back all its territory including the ones occupied by Russia in 2014 to present. but also manages to conquer Transnistria and give it back to Moldova. Russians also withdraw from Belarus which gets a pro Western democratic gov. Post war. Ukraine rebuilds economy booms from a Trillion dollar Marshal plan. Russia in the throes of a civil war.
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that is why we are on the cusp of a crypto boom with a Pro Crypto USA pres. sec , US senate and congress all pro crypto, also the USA states want to buy BTC for their reserves. and as of now Jan 2025 is behaving like Jan 2025, still preparing, springs coiling things are down, and I think this will continue until Late Feb 2025 then BOOM, a sudden upwards motion just like what happened in late January 19 2024 41,624 USD to 71482 USD in March 12 2024,
I can see something similiar happening to BTC in starting next week when it bottoms out. then a boom lasting from Late Jan to late March 2025 where BTC goes to 175K USD. while this is going on I think ETH goes to 6K USD, and SOL goes to 1K USD.
TRUMP I predict will be the DOGE 2021 PEPE 2024 of 2025. The biggest most popular Meme coin ever. I predict TRUMP will go to 200 USD in the same time frame.
My prediction BTC goes to more than 200K USD by end of 2025, and ETH highest is 6K USD and SOL goes to 2K USD. TRUMP I think goes to 500 USD by Dec 2025. TRUMP will be in the top ten crypto coins by end of 2025.
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well in terms of elections, Moldova 2nd most important, you had a Pro EU party win, in Georgia, you had a pro Russian party win, and the USA one is coming up which is looking to be a Pro Ukraine Kamala Harris dem win. Moldova is important as it covers the left flank of Ukraine, and Georgia well the least important but a Pro EU win there will distract the Russians, the really most important one that has a massive massive effect is the USA elections. After this war is over, and Russia has lost , it will start a domino effect, Belarus and Georgia will get rid of their pro Russian govs. start discussions to join NATO and the EU. Ukraine will be fast tracked to join the EU and NATO after the war. I predict Hungary , Slovakia and Austria will have changes in their govs in the next 4 years. Orban will probably run again in 2026 Hungarian elections and win then EU focuses on Hungary with threats of removal from the EU and NATO. Fico probably retires, and the Austrian wannabe nazi party who currently won the 2024 elections will not be reelected in 2028.
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The Russians spending billions of USD worth of missles targetting civilians just to scare the Ukrainians into ending this war is simply very very stupid, in fact, the Russians waste missles with no military significance and just makes the Ukrs fight harder. The Russian leadership is simply deluded. In fact this is an act of desperation. since the Russians dont have any new ideas to do so its going back to attacking civilians. Russia is going to lose this war. and it will be economic, the longer Russia is in this war, the more its economy and military is destroyed , Russia is spending 500 mil to 1 billion USD a day running this war. and the more Russians suffer casualtites and tank and other miltiary equipment loss, the more Russians have to spend money to recruit and equip more soldiers and build new military equipment. and then also sending them to ukraine costs a lot of money, Russia is under sanctions bad ones, and their war chest fund is set to run out by 2025. Also the Russians are devoting their economy to a war footing. Good for the war, but very bad for long term, this also hits the Russian economy hard. and I agree with General Zaluzhny , cause as much Russian losses and casualties as possible make it very expensive for the Russians to stay in the war, that will be key to the final outcome of this war.
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Im thinking Ukraine war ends in 2025 to 2026. the results of the US Presidential elections of 2024 will be pivotal on how the war ends. If you get a pro peace US pres. in the white house in 2025, said pres. will probably force Ukraine to do a negotiated peace with Russia, with Russia keeping whatever territory it occupies at the time, and significantly lower aid to Ukraine. In this scenario I can see Ukraine keep on fighting until 2026 then go for a negotiated settlement. Putin "wins" with regime survival. If Biden or a Pro ukraine US pres. wins the 2024 elections, well you might see a ramp up of aid to Ukraine, and Putin gets really significantly desperate to find a way out of the war. and will escalate to end the war in 2025. That includes, use of large numbers of chemical weapons, and even tactical nukes. in Ukraine. if his orders for the use of tac nukes is followed, well i can see total sanctions on Russia and a conventional response , air and missle strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine, sinking of the Russian navy in the black sea. Russia will also retaliate with conventional strikes on NATO military bases outside of Ukraine. I dont think there will be ground combat, since NATO does not want to invade Russia and Russia is probably too weak to do so by this time, with much of its military power focused on defeating Ukraine. More like a tit for tat missle and air strikes on each other military assets. Might even extend to other places outside Ukraine like in the Pacific or in Moldova and Kaliningrad. At some point massively high near WW3 tensions which both sides are but not quite there yet as no big ground combat. just a missle and air war between NATO and Russia, NATO troops enter Ukraine but stay away from the Russians and demand a ceasefire and armistice, after much bluster Russians accept and do a korean war style peace agreement with Ukraine. where UN troops deploy to keep the Russian and Ukrainians apart. Russia gets to keep whatever it has conquered but again not recognized by Ukraine and her allies. Russia will still be under worse sanctions than North Korea. with no let up. Sceanrio #2, The Russian military does not follow Putin's nuke launch orders and arrests or kill Putin. This results in a period of infighting in the Russian leadership with the a Junta combining Russian military leaders and oligarchs taking over. Then blaming everything on Putin , and withdrawing all Russian troops back to pre 2022 war borders. Either way the aftermath of these two scenarios will be very similiar with Putin(in scenario #1) and the Junta(scenario #2) not having full political control , in a unstable political and economic environment where the Russian economy is crashing and is bankrupt. along with a good number of political & regional groups contesting the authority of the Kremlin with their own private armies. Along with a perceived defeat in the Ukraine war. where Russian public unrest is strongly rising. I think Russia will post Putin or with Putin in charge with a much weakened Russian military and economy causing Russia to slide to civil war. I think the civil war wil be started with Russian republics esp. in the far east declaring independence and with a bankrupt much weakened Russian army not being able to do anything about it. then it will domino to a general civil war, with multiple secessions , a general collapse of the Russian army in munities since the soliders have not been paid or fully paid. and Russian political groups with their own miltias taking advantage of all this. I think Russia in the late 2020s or even early 2030s will be a very bad Geopolitiical problem for the USA and China and esp. on its neighbours. which will lead to a break up of Russia with Russia losing 50 percent of its pre Ukraine war territory to secession. Russia basially becomes like China in the 1920s, with no central gov. and the country ruled by warlords, revolutionarieis and various armed groups.
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While I am a firm supporter of Biden, if he steps down, Kamala Harris will be the nominee and she will get by solid firm support, and I think the she will have solid support from the DNC so looking at the 13 keys to Alan Lichtman, with a Kamala Harris nomination, 3 keys will be false, namely Key #1 Reps control congress. Key #3 Biden is not running for a 2nd term. Key #12 Kamal Harris is not charismatic.
So I think Kamala has to pass thru 3 hurdles to the white house namely Hurdle #1 DNC in August 2024: I believe Kamala Harris will coast thru this. get solid support from the demo delegates. Hurdle #2 the 2nd Debates in September, 2024, I have seen Kamala debate in the past , she will do well here vs. Trump. Hurdle #3 the Nov elections. Yep if she passes good on Hurdle #1. Kamala will still win with 3 keys false, or she gets a strong opposition wtihin the demo party for the nomination well that is 4 keys false, she will still win.
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my opinoin I think Russia lost 250K casualties in Ukraine in 11 months of war, I would say about 60K dead. Ukraine is the worst war Russia has experienced since WW2. Many of the dead are not even recovered since they were blown to bits , left on the battlefield unaccounted for. A lot of the Russian dead came in the past few months with conscripts and Penal troops being sent in WW1 style attacks. Ukraine incurred abut 100K casualties, with 10K dead. The Ukrs dont fight the Russians head on and prefer to hit them from afar or in ambushes and dont waste their men like the Russians. Also Ukrs troops get the best battlefield medical, NATO medicines, doctors, and evacuation for their wounded to NATO hospitals. Russians, nope, medicine shortagfe, first aid shortage, only officeres get medical evacuation, the troops, if you are wounded pray that you have the first aid or medical to treat your wounds, many die due to being wounded from infection due to lack of medical, many resort to impromptu medical like pour9ing vodka over wound, etc. I think this war will go on possibly until 2025, I think Putin is banking on Trump to win the US presidential elections of 2024, however if Desantis or biden wins again, this war is lost to Russia and Putin will really get desperate, by that time, 3 years of war, has really cored out the Russian army I would say if the war lasts that long, Russia will probably have lost around 1 million casualties , of that 250K dead. Ukraine wouuld lose around 250K to 500K casualties of that 25k to 50K dead. Rusia would probably have mobilized 3-5 millioin men by that time. and its caused unrest , mamy of the Russian army is kept back in Russia for unrest suppression. that many armed troops in a defeat will cause a civil war.
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what happens next: Pacific war still happens, USA embargoes Japan after Japan takes over French Indochina in 1940 taking advantage of the chaos of the French civil war. war with Japan is similiar to OTL except that The British empire can fully concentrate its military and resources vs. Japan. The effect, the Japanese while able to conquer, hong kong, the Philippines , Dutch East Indies. and Malaya is not able to conquer singapore and Burma. also Germany does not declare war on the USA. but still invades the USSR in the summer of 1941. Also the Germans intervene in the French civil war. SO you have 2 nearly seperate wars happening, The Pacific war USA, GB, China, Netherlands, vs. Japan. Soviet German war: Germany, Italy and its allies vs. USSR, Spain. The Pacific war ends. in 1946 , after Japan surrenders after the loss of Kyushu , famines due to the naval blockade. Soviet German war ends in mid 1945 in a stalemate with the loss of the Ukraine and the Baltics for the USSR and Spain conquered by combined German and Italian forces. In the USSR stalin is later deposed in a coup in 1946. Reforms in the USSR reapproachment with the USA. No nukes are developed. Probably another war between USSR and Germany in the 60s , KMT wins the CHinese civil war.
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If putin uses nukes, in Ukraine, NATO military intervention in Ukraine. I think NATO will hit the Russian positions in Ukraine and crimea with conventional weapons, and NATO troops will enter Ukraine , I think before the Russians use nukes they would have very much prepared before hand , like more mobilization uptick in Russian troop deployments along NATO borders, and the Russian black sea fleet leaving crimea and going to Russian ports. and his troops in Ukraine hunkering down. and when Putin uses nukes in Ukraine it will be multiple tac nukes hitting Ukr logistics , command centers, communication lines. transport hubs. Putin will do this to force NATO to intervene to end the war, I think the Russians will endure the conventional NATO attacks but will not retaliate. In fact Putin warns NATO if NATO ground forces try to push the Russians out of Ukraine, the Russians will use nukes on NATO. So this will effectively freeze the war to an armistice. SO putin can go back and say he aquired a lot of territory from Ukraine. However total sanctions on Russia will remain. Russia goes into economic free fall depression economic collapse. However Putin has massively mobilized his secruity and military forces and is still in power having barely suppressed unrest. Putin is still in power and even manages to do a victory march in the Kremlin, however his hold on power is tenous, his oligarchs have already lost so much with most of their foreign assets seized. Russian threats of war with NATO if the West does not stop the sanctions falls of deaf ears. while the economy has collapsed and Russia is a isolated pariah state similiar to North korea. Putin still holds power albeit tenously. Ukraine loses 25 percent of its territory to Russia. large parts of its territory contaminated by radiation and chemical weapons. having lost a few hundred thousand dead soldiers and more civlians however Ukraine remains defiant while aggreing to peace terms does not recognize the areas Russia has occupied, Ukraine becomes a NATO protectorate with hundreds of billions of USD poured into teh country for reconstruction. NATO warns Russia any attacks on Ukraine will result in war with NATO. NATO troops are deployed in Ukraine. UN troops are deployed between lines of control between Russia and Ukraine. Despite martial law, millions of Russians leave Russia as the economy is in free fal and the gov unstable. in the next ten years after the end of the war, putin dies shortly after the endof the war, there is turmoil and power struggle in the Kremlin, meanwhile the unrest in the Russian republics grow as returned troops from Ukraine mainly not paid or partly paid revolt. Russian military mutinies as many are not paid. due to the gov being bankrupt. massive shortages in basic goods. the Russian ruble going into inflation weimar style free fall. A new Russian gov. takes over in Moscow and begs teh west for negotiations. Russia would leave Ukraine entirely including Crimea in exchange for the total lifting of sanctions, economic aid and normalization of relations with teh west. Russia also finalizes a formal peace treaty with Ukraine and acceptance when Ukraine joins the EU and NATO. Depsite foreign aid and lifting of sanctions, Russia loses 25 percent of its territory to secession in the Caucasus and Central Asia. while there is normalization of relations with the west, western companies mostly do not reinvest back into Russia. Chinese companies buy many Russian companies to control its energy sector, China also supports the newly independent former Russain repbulics anad invests in them. so does Turkey. Post putin Russia never really recovers economically , its a corrupt anarchic state with chaotic economic and politics with a downsized military but strong internal security force. The more or less Pro Western leadership in Moscow has a tenous grip on power.
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this is why Trump won win 2024, a trump win will be so awful for the USA foreign policy and have grave effects on the USA that the establishment will probably not allow trump to run burying him in court cases. I think all this drama with trump while looking ominous will ensure a Biden win, no matter how close it may get, that is why 2024 will be a crazy year. with Putin to the wall and desperate to get a Trump victory and doing everything he can to scare the USA public and investors to vote for Trump , and crash the US economy. This will fail, and with a Biden victory in 2024, the war in Ukraine will end in 2025, with the Russian elites overthrowing Putin. to cut hteir losses so they can get normal relations back with the USA and the west and sanctions all lifted. Also this will end Trump's career, and Maga will be kaput or at least seriously hurt, with Putin gone, this will have a massive effect on the world. Maga politicos lose power probably get criminal charges on them after defeat. Russia withdraws from Ukraine totally including the crimea, Georgia dream party looses power in Georgia, leader of the party jailed for treason. within a decade of the fall of Putin and defeat of Russia: 1. Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Mopldova all join NATO and the EU , Armenia joins the EU but not NATO(due to Turkish objections). 2. Georgia, and Moldova get back their seperatist states created by Russia. 3. Russia becomes a massive mexico style narco state where the Russian gov is very weak and the real power is in the hands of the Russian oligarchs and Mafia cartels.
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ts very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends.
Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up.
So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more.
I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war.
Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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In fact these Russian wagner type tactics are stupid, you are wasting men and materiel for small gains, yah like Vulhedar , took 2 years to conquer 50K casualties half of that dead, and 1K tanks and APCs lost for the Russians, the Ukrainians lost probably 25 percent of the what the Russians lost, yah Vulhedar a town of 15K before the war, the Russians captured a ruin, and the Ukrainains just withdrew back to new defensive lines in order. that is just one example, the Ukrainians know of these tactics and are doing an excellent strategy of a fighting defense, inflict as much casualties on the Russians then withdraw to new defensive lines. the Russians may take territory but its all temporary and can be reclaimed later. just like late 2022. where the Ukrainians retook 50 percent of what they lost. Ukraine will be the graveyard of the Russian federation. In short, these tactics are not a progression but a regression, to WW2 or even WW1 tactics. yah it may get you territory but at massive cost, for what??? ruins and the Ukrainians have not broken and still fighting hard and moved to new defensive lines. and the Russians have to do it again.
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Yep but in this case the USA and NATO , EU and their allies are all against Putin and will not let go. Putin's psychology of fighting to the end will probably work on smaller nations who the west do not have any stake in like Chechnya, Georgia, Syria(the west just let him do his thing which was also beneficial to them). However Ukraine is different. Ukraine is important to the EU since it has the largest undeveloped gas deposits in Europe which can finally end Russian domination of energy exports to Europe. The Events of 2014 -2015 made Putin think that Ukraine was a pushover and the little sanctions the west made to Russia meant to Putin that the west wont do anything if Putin invaded and since the Ukraine army did a poor showing in 2014-2015 they will just fold up when he invaded in Feb 2022. Well Putin totally miscalculated and underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians who fought back hard and totally made fools of the Russian army harkening back to the winter war USSR vs. Finland 1940. Now Putin is now fighting against the Ukr kiev gov. who is also backed to a corner who wants nothing less than victory over Russia meaning a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine back to Pre war borders. USA NATO EU now put the worst sanctions on Russia in recent history as well as massively supporting Ukraine with weapons, financial aid and volunteers. So if you compare the total GDPs economies of the nations involved in the Ukraine war. Ukraine along with its USA, EU and allied backers have a total gdp of 46.3 trillion USD vs. Russia's GDP of 1.48 trillion USD. Ukraine and her allies have 46 X the GDP of Russia and all Ukraine's allies are financing Ukraine's economy and military , Russia may have his Indian, Iranian and Chinese allies but they dont directly support Russia financially. they may buy his exports but do not give Russia free money and weapon systems. the USA EU NATO and their allies on the other hand gave around 80 billion USD of miiltary and financial aid to Ukraine. Since Jan 2022. Russia's military spending in 2021 was around 66 billion USD. THe Russian economy is also cut off from swift and cannot pay its debts and is in default, also its economy is reliant on high oil prices and current export to EU nations particularly Germany. to keep its economy alive, also most foreign investors have withdrawn from Russia further cratering its economy. So Putin is in a deep hole and while Putin is trying to get out, his fight back hard to the finish line mentality woking with a poorly motivated poor quality Russian army , with a rapidly cratering economy, along with strong highly motivated Ukrainian resolve to fight to the end and expel the Russians back to pre war borders and strong USA and EU NATO resolve to support Ukraine means Putin is just digging a deeper hole for himself. That is why Putin is downgrading his goals hoping that in doing so , he can achieve his goals easier so he can show his people that he has won and gotten something out of the war and dictate peace terms to teh Ukrainians. and Im not surprised the Ukrainians will refuse and keep on fighitng and the west will keep on supporting the Ukrainians and its here Putin will get desperate and even more dangerous ratcheting up tensions with NATO and the USA to near war levels not seen since the cuban missle crisis of the 1960s to pressure Ukraine's allies to make it accept Russian peace terms. and ending the sanctions. Also I will not be surprised if the Russians use chemical weapons and tactical nukes and dares the west to respond. In this case Putin will really have to be really desperate with his back to the wall. I dont think Putin wants WW3, I dont think he wants to fight NATO since he knows he will get his ass kicked. But he does want to survive politically since if he loses political control, he also loses his life.
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and looking at NATO despite the USA shifting its view on the Pacific to confront China, well, Russia is blustering peacocking the crap these days that it can destroy NATO hahahaa, covers the fact that Putin is SCARED TO SHIT of NATO. Heck if the Russians invade the Baltic states, yah the Russians may overrun the baltic states in a week or two, and may take NATO a month to fully respond with a counterattacking force but in the meantime the RUssian army will be heavilly attrited by air power as well as the militaries of the Baltic states who will defend hard. and give heavy damage on the Russians. the counterattack will probably be spear headed by the Polish army with substantial American and UK elements as well as smaller elements from other NATO states. but the air support will be from all over NATO. Navy , probably led by teh USN, UK, French navies, will kaput the Russian navy not only in the North Atlantic, Black and Caspian seas, but also in the med and hte pacific. Then go into Ukraine and kick the Russians back to Pre war borders. Kaliningrad and Crimea will probably be left alone but blockaded. Russian territory will not be invaded. Biggest mistake Putin will make.
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As putin gets desperate he will be at his most dangerous. Probably ratcheting up tensions with teh west to near war levels not seen since the cuban missle crisis. officially annexing his winnings in Ukraine saying its Russian territory so he can legally mobilize and crom forbid legally be allowed to use tactical nukes. These tensions will make a global recession even worse crash the markets even more. I think by autumn, Ukraine would have trained a significant force of several hundred thousand volunteers properly enough to do a proper effective operational offensive and the Russians on the other hand are getting weaker. militarily, the new recruits they are throwing in are traiined about a week or so or even less bfore they throw them in Ukraine, there are reports some of them dont even know how to use a machine gun. Prisoners are even being recruited. Its that desperate. Putin is going and begging and buying drones from Iran. the Russian military is getting to be that stupid. Putin getting significant defeats on the battlefield will really endanger him politically. Putin I think is really hesitant to use nukes, since he knows the poliitcal implcations on this one. his enemies in the Russian gov. willl not only not obey to use tac nukes but use this to remove him from power. In a good ending, scenario autumn to winter 2022-2023, Ukrainian renewed counteroffensive deal decisive defeatrs on the Russian army in southern Ukraine, gain significant territory, heck even Kherson is captured. after Russian army in the south to near collapse. the Russian army in Ukraine is unravelling. Putin ratchets up tensions with the west, Putin orders the use of tac nukes to stop the Ukrainians, his orders are not followed instead putin in placed under arrest. Russian gov. annoucnes Putin has died of "natural causes" during surgery. New Russian gov announces ceasefire and peace talks, after a few months of talks, Russian forces withdraw back to pre war borders. Most sanctions are removed business as usual except for most western investors dont go back to Russia, and the EU gradually levels down their energy buys from Russia. Plans are underwayi to develop Ukrainian gas fields and the EU can buy gas from Ukraine. hundreds of billions of USD of economic reconstruction aid to Ukraine from USA and EU. Ukraine is fast tracked to EU membership, NATO membership also fast tracked. Russian gov barely protests and blames the war opn Putin and hjis inner circle. Russia does undedrgo a period of political and economic social turmoil but the Russian army is intact and the economy while depressed does not collapse. Russia gives back the crimea in exchange for massive economic aid and full lifting of sanctions. lots of Chinese investment in Russia, the USA and EU counter and western investments come back to Russia. It is not to the best interest of the USA that Russia collapses nor have its gov and economy to be dominated by the Chinese. Bad ending: Putin uses nukes to stop the Ukr army offensive. NATO enters Ukraine and forces a ceasefire for both sides. No WW3 but tensions are bad worse than cuban missle crisis. Armistice is declared after months of negotiations, there is a peace treaty with UN troops being deployed in Ukraine However while Russia gets to keep its winning in Ukraine Russia is practically a pariah state No trades with USA and EU and their allies, Economy is worse , near collapse. Putin dies a few years later after that Political, economic and social chaos in Russia, to near civil war levels. Russian economy collapses. Russian revolution in Moscow, Russia breaks up and loses 50 percent of its territory to secession esp. In the Caucasus , Siberia , Far East. Army cant do anything as it collapses due to bankrupt Russian gov.k not able to pay its military. This chaos takes 10 years or more to play out. But when the smoke clears, Russia the moscow gov. still controls 50 percent of Russia, west of the Urals. the others turn into a colleciton of Indpependent republics dominated by China, Turkey , Saudi. The new Moscow Gov. is democratic and Pro West. Ukraine gets back all of its territory including Crimea. as the Russian gov. wants western aid .
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@davidty2006 Yep the Ukrainians know the Russians dont, they make stupid excuses about fighting nazis, when they get there, they see no nazis, Russian troops are even told they are fighting Polish , NATO troops, crazy. and many Russian troops are not paid or not fully paid. Putin hopes, he can just keep on throwing chumps into the meatgrinder. Yep this will end badly for the Russians esp. after the war is over when many thousands of traumatized Russian troops go back to Russia, not paid discriminated for losing the war and being poor , no jobs, but they hate the Russian gov, have military skills and experience. and going back to a Russia which has bad poliical and economic instability. The Russian civil war that will come will be brutal and bloody as Girkin said, millions of Russian casualties in a upcoming Russian civil war.
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and its a bloody failure for the Russians, their attacks are stalled and they have not created a breakthrough in Ukrainian lines. 50K Russian casualties so far in a month of the offensive , and its becoming a disaster for the Russian in the current Kharkov offensive. Interestingly a lot of the cannon fodder here are foreign volunteers from India, Cuba , Nepal , Bangladesh etc. Also not much tanks are being used by the Russians, instead the Russians are using Chinese made golf carts , trucks, and vintage UAZ loaf trucks to ferry these guys to the front. The Russians have entered the grey zone. but have not really advanced to hit the main Ukrainian lines. THe Ukrainians hit the Russians with drones and artillery hard. Also the Ukrainians hit Russian logistics hard with HMARS, ATACMs and storm shadows , so with the Russian logistics in really bad situation, the Russians cannot launch big coordinated attacks, but have to attack piece meal since their logistics cannot support it. So the Russians cannot really advnace due to a bad logistical situation and the Russian troops suffering heavy losses from mass drone attacks and Ukrainian artillery guided by drones. Also the Ukrainian are using cluster munitions on the Russians. Also Russian brute force tactics have not changed much so hence the high Russian losses for little gain.
The Russians are trying to improve the logistical situation but throwing lots of supplies tot he front but these are getting hit hard by Ukrainian missle strikes. and the Ukrainians seem to have excellent intel on Russian logistics.
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new rules, of the game, Russia not only stumbles, Russia crashes hard. Post Ukraine war. Russia falls into civil war, Ukraine gets all its territory back including Crimea later. millions of Russian refugees leave for Europe and elsewhere in the next ten years after the war. escaping economic social and political chaos. China rises up as USA's leading rival. the autocrats are weakened by a post Putin Russia in chaos. the USA led 1st world is ascendant. Even China sort of kowtows to the west for now. NATO disbands for a EU defensive alliance which also includes USA and Canada. also later includes Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Moldova. Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia. Bosnia. Norway.Austria. the Swiss are neutral do not join as usual. Japan, South Korea, Singapore are junior partners observer status. Turkey is left out and forms its own defensive alliance with Azerbaijan, Caliphate of the Caucasus. Central Asian states China and a whole bunch of former Russian repbulics that are virtual Chinese puppets. Mongolia. Iran. These states form a counter balance to the EU. when the dust settles and things stabilize Russia has lost 50 percent of its pre war territory to secssion , still ruled from Moscow its a huge state mostly west of the Urals. Kaliningrad is still owned by Russia. though there are talks to sell it to Poland. The Moscow gov. is democratic and Pro West. and as of 2050-2060 there are talks for Russia to join the EU.
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Yep the Russian recruits they are getting are bottom of the barrell, the Russian volunteers are often, in poor health due to years of substance abuse, alcoholism poorly motivated, their foreign volunteers often do not have any military experience or training before their joined, cant speak Russian, low IQ levels and tend to freeze up during combat. Yep those are 75 percent of the Russian army. which are cannon fodder. and its interesting from what I read the Russian storm Z cannon fodder units are made up of Russian convicts and foreign volunteers , those foreign volunteers and convicts that actually shown good performance(meaning survived longer than the average cannon fodder) become officers of Storm Z units.
Yep and from what I hear, the Russians are running low on convicts and now relying more on foreign volunteers from poor third world nations like India, Nepal , Bangladesh, Egypt, nations of Africa, Cuba, along with Central asian illegal migrants that the Russians arrest to be the cannon fodder.
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well I think 100 years from now, there will be no Putin monuments and statues, and he will be remembered alright as hitler 2.0, bumbling hitler waanabe, for the Russians, he will be seen as a severe disappointment, and his name will be cursed and synonymous to catastrophic failure. due to overreaching ambition. As for Russia, I can see a Russia going thru a period of political social and economic chaos. while I dont htink Russia will break up. I think the new post war post Putin Russia that will emerge will be one where the oligarchs are the real rulers, the moscow gov and military are just puppets of hte oligarchs and their PMCs and tehy will never allow any leader like Putin to emerge, the Russian army will be kept weak , the real military power will be in the numerous PMCs, Moscow will be weak, and the Russian provinces and republics will have a bit more autonomy and have their own military power in their PMCs while swearing fealty to Moscow. The 90s will be back in style and on roids and will last for decades. Meanwhile Russian leaders will focus on economic recovery while also enriching themselves, corruption will never be resolved and will actually get worse, and even Russian leaders miltary and civlians will have their own PMCs. Russia becomes the largest narco state in the world and a criminal activity haven due to poor control of the Russian gov and very bad corruption. Also Russia will be a battleground of influence between USA and China, for their resources along with other actors such as EU, Turkey, various neighbouring states. Meanwhile millions of Russians leave Russia for better greener pastures.
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yah but the biggest loser would be China, the Chinese economy will fail badly. and it will probably collapse, if the Chinese are stupid enough to war with teh USA, China will be subjected to total sanctions. blockade of its ports seizure of all foreign assets. in the USA and allied countries. and its not only USA and Taiwan China will be fighting , it will probably be all of NATO, Australia, New Zealand, possibly Japan and SOuth Korea, if China strikes US bases in Japan and SOuth Korea and gets the North Koreans involved, SOuth Korea and Japan will jump in, the Philippines too as a basing country, the Indians, Indonesians, Singapore might jump in as well. and if Russia decides OK will be support the Chinese, they also get total santions. China is toast. all trade with China will be cut. the USA will be hurt with significant losses in its navy and air force but it will prevail, the Chinese air force and navy will be kaput. the Chinese war vs. Taiwan will be one of the most important and biggest blunders CHina has made possibly enough to collapse the CCP. China goes into civil war.
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I predict war ends in 2025 with a negotiated settlement, possibly 1st quarter of 2025 with the lines frozen. Russia controlling 20 percent of Ukraine, no Euro troops for Ukraine but Ukraine receives hundreds of billions of USD in rebuild aid plus the right to rebuild its military. no peace treaty. its a korean war style armistice both Russia and Ukraine technically still at war. Trump threatens the Russians if they told cool off and stop their offensives and agree to an armistice, USA will resume military aid to Ukraine. even bigger than what Joe Biden sent. In return Russia gets all sanctions lifted, its foreign funds unfrozen.
Both sides will declare victory , however analysts will conclude the Russians technically won a marginal victory controlling 20 percent of Ukraine.
however the Russians while saying its a victory wont feel its a victory, the Russian military has been embarassed, discredited, Putin's hold on power disrupted diminished as elites start doing the blame game on how incompetently the Russian military and gov handled the war. Putin will of course Purge and arrest elites who he thinks threatened his power along with firing a bunch of generals and replacing them with more loyal officers. All this in the midst of a Russian economy in depression, possibly hyperinflation and high unemployment rates, social instabilty due to high crime rates and returning Russian veterans ,foreign investors most dont come back to Russia. and the Europeans are still hostile to Russia. Ukraine meanwhile also declares victory that they managed to survive and bloody the Russian bear despite Russia's massive military capabilities. however they feel they lost the war and are angry and vengeful and want to take back their lost territories and then some. Ukrainians receive hundreds of billions of USD in aid along with investments from the west. the Ukrainians rearm and reform their military along NATO lines removing old Soviet style command structures and doctrines. along wtih rebuilding a booming economy. Also the Ukrainians secretly pursue the development of nukes. as insurance vs. the Russians. Ukrainians also support Russian secessionist groups and anti gov forces. trying to exacerbate the already bad social and political situation in Russia. Meanwhile the Russians are busy trying to rebuild their economy and reform and rebuild their military. Putin does not have the stomach for another war since he just got out of the lat one with the skin of his teeth. But fears the resurgence of a vengeful Ukrainian military in the future. while at the same time trying to secure his regime.
Not surprised if round 2 happens like 10-20 years after the possible armistice of 2025. Whether Putin is in power or not. While there is an armistice , Ukraine and Russia relations are still very hostile. both sides do everything to undermine the other in the intermission period until the next war occurs again.
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I predict breadlines coming back to Russia probably in 2025-2026. I tihnk the full force of the economic sanctions will be felt when Russia destabilizes which I think will occur in 2025-2026. The Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2024. thereby bankrupting the Russian gov, economic collapse is not long coming after that. and all this culminates with rising unrest due to economic depression, losing battles which leads to political destabilization of Putin's hold on power, Putin trying to mobilize more men for the war and resorting to forcing and drafting Russians to fight on the battlefield results in more unrest. and if Putin ever becomes so desperate that he orders a nuke used, he will get overthrown by his own people and that is where the collapse will occur as Russian oligarchs have their own PMCs private armies which fight each other for succession of rule in Russia. and also add in the local regional militias and secessionists. no more MOscow central control and a collapsing economy means secession, also add China Turkey encourages secessinists group in Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Russia to secede and supports them financially , recognition and weapons. in order to access their natural resources. USA and EU will probably try to counter this by supporting the Moscow gov and their favorite factions. I think after a decade of bloodshed there will be several new nations in what used to be the Russian Federation, Russia will lose 50 percent of its pre war land but it will still be the largest state in post Russian fed Russia. and center of finance and industry, all the rest will be a collection of Turkish and Chinese puppet states
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Russia post war will be a semi anarchic oligarch controlled corporate state with a weak Moscow gov and military and economically dysfunctional in perpetrual recession, very high inflation rates, massive corruption, high crime rates, social and political disorder, oligarchs and Mafia run amuck. with USA, EU , Turkey, and China, interferring in local affairs, Russia becomes a great game between USA and China. Russia will be a very entertaining country in the next decade or two with millions of Russians leaving the country and flooding into the EU. Russian mail border bride and hookers in the streets of EU cities will be back in style just like the 90s.
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and after the war is over, PUtin will try to rebuild his economy and military but even without sanctions(which I suspect will be slow motion in lifting) and normalized relations with the USA, the western investors are not coming back, frozen assets will be slow motion to go back to Russia, in fact, the EU will still be hostile to the Russians. are focused on strenghthening Ukraine as a shield vs. Russia. Teh war has really damaged the Russian economy and all of it will come flooding out after the war with hyperinflation, high unemployment, depression, and those hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans returning to hyperinflation high prices of food, high unemployment and the loss of value of their savings will be enraged, and the Russian oligarchs have their PMCs Prviate armies and they will be looking to get rid of Putin and replace him with their own more controllable puppet.
I think Putin will be removed from power whether by force or natural causes shortly after this war is over and I think it will take a decade for Russia to slide into chaos. It will be a slow motion downfall of the RUssian federation a break up into new nations. With RUssia becoming a great game between USA and China.
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the last time the Chinese went to a serious war was the Sino Vietnam war of 1979 , lasted one month, the Chinese lost about 50K to 100K casualties. the Chinese claimed to have won and taught vietnam a lesson while retreating back to China. During that war, the Chinese sent in their 2nd and third line troops, the 1st line troops were facing the Soviets in Northern China. the 2nd and 3rd line troops were shown to be really archaic, like a WW2 army. (or even WW1), marched to the front mostly , used a few hundred tanks and APCs, was artillery heavy. and practically no air support as the Chinese were afraid to committ their air force to vietnam which at the time was some of the most dense SAM areas in the world, The Chinese soldiers were used like WW1, massed human wave attacks, bugles were used to coordinate troops, and human runners were used to relay messages due to shortage of radios in units. Im not surprised Chinese soldier quality is probably worse than the Russian army, and that is telling considering Russias abysmally horrible performance in Ukraine.
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I read recently , western military analysts are predicting that towards the end of 2025, the Russians will run out combat vehicles left over from the cold war and still in storage. This will cut Russia's ability to refurbish and produce by two thirds or more and the head of Russia's central bank said that country's economy cannot maintain stability at these levels indefinitely.
Each month , Russia feeds around 15-30K men into Ukraine and these men are removed from an economy that is already short of 5 million labourers since December 2023 and Ukrainian drones are also attacking Russia's weapons production facilities.
The Russian strategy is to first do air and artillery bombardments followed by mechanized and dismounted attacks , frontal attacks at that without much imagination, the Russians attack until they run out of men , ammo and equipment. Then after a few days of refurbishment , they attack again.
Such attack strategies are very costly in Russian lives and materiel but its slowly taking ground. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not suffering as high losses as the Russians but the Ukrainians are being forced to give up ground in these attacks due to artillery ammo shortages and the use of Russian glide bombs which the Ukrainians cannot stop.
So Russia is on a time limit to win this war. The longer Russia is in this war the more damaged the Russian army , economy and poliitical situation is. I think 2024 is the most important year of the war, its pivotal due to the USA elections of 2024. If Biden wins, Russia has probably until the end of 2025 to acheve some sort of win in this war, since 2026 is in my opinion the point of no return year for Russia.
I still think the way Russia loses this war is similiar to how Russia lost WW1, due to revolution and civil war. Putin will never give up , he will fight this war to victory no matter the cost. He will probably have to be removed by civil and military uprising. as of 2024, the Russian people are still tolerant of this war, however there are cracks starting to appear, but I think when the Russian economy cannot support how this war is going , going into Venezuela style hyperinflation , rising food prices along with Ukrainian major victories int he battlefield....well we might see a repeat of 1917.
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Russians only control the roads, just like the winter war, Russian convoys become mottis to be chopped out. Putin does not want to do a general call up mobilization draft of their reserves that might cause a revolt among the Russian populace since this war is already very unpopular in Russia that is why they are trying to get foreign trooops in like the Belarussians which are even more unmotivated than the Russians and their puppet pres. has been delaying entry into the war and making excuses to Putin hahaha.k heck Putin tried to get his puppet Kazakh pres. in on the way, his Kazakh puppet flew out of the country to avoid his envoys hahaha. now Putin is bringing in thousands of Syrians and Central Africans to fight in Ukr, the state of the Russian army is so bad, that Syrians are being brought in to advise the Russian army on how to fight in Urban environments WTF. dont the Russians read their histories on how to fight in a city crazy. Belarus pres. Lukahshenko is like the Spanish dictaor Francisco Franco is making excuses to hitler not to fully align with him hahah. Lukashenko I think really does not like the war, and knows once he goes in, he really kaput, probably looking ahead without Putin, so he does not go to the Hague for war crimes, and just retire peacefully. Heck even Lukashenko hilariously revealed Moldova will be invaded next after Ukraine LOL. I think this was deliberate and not a mistake.
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well my prediction you havent seen anything yet. the worse will be next year, Russian cut off gas to the Euros , that fails to make the Euros remove their support for Ukraine in fact they double up their support and embargo the Russians more, Nexrt up a desperate Putin using tac nukes in Ukraine to force a ceasefire and peace negotiations, probably happens mid 2023. then war ends in latre 2023 ot early 2024 with the death of Putin. in the meantime this causes near war tensions with NATO , NATO troops entering Ukraine but not confronting the Russians, warning the Russians any more nuke use vs. the Ukrainians will result in war with NATO. bit more weapons to Ukraine including French and American fighter jets. total sanctions vs. the Russians, Russian labelled a terrorist stat. all these result in the end, Russians withdraw from Ukraine including from Crimea, in exchange removal of all sanctions on Russia, normalization of relations between Russia and EU NATO and their allies, and economic aid. the effect: I agree with Harry Dents theory of three crash phases for the markets with phase one alrady occuring in mid june. Phase 2 mid 2023 nasdaq goes down to 6K pts. BTC to 9K USD. then late 2023 mid 2024, nasdaq goes down to 3K pts, BTC to 4K USD. and its not only the Ukraine war, its also collapse of the Chinese economy, worlwide recession , the FED doing a massive QE to save a market collapse in the USA which causes inflation to go to 20 to 30 percent, then in 2024 a massive rise in the interest rates to 30 percent or more to destroy inflation. My strategy Im going to buy in at phase 2, FTM, sell when it bounces Then in 2029 to 2033 when the next bull run happens, Nasdaq goes to all time highs, BTC goes to 500K USD. FTM I think will go to 0.10 USD bounce to .30 to .50 USD in late 2023 then crash to .05 USD then in 2029 to 2033 go as high as 30 USD.
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a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive
Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps
Russian Order of battle:
2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X.
Ukrainian Order of battle:
13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X.
aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk.
Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster.
also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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good thing we dont have this shit in Alaska, yep, I love the cold, we have excellent gun laws , constitutional carry, stand your ground, castle doctrines all the way. Low crime rates, yah they have stats alaska has high crime rates which is bullshit, nope, I live in Anchorage and its quite safe, and any mainland USA gang banger who comes here and tries to mug me or hit my house well will get welcomed with glaser safety rounds
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Yes I think 2024 is a very important year for both sides of the war since its the USA 2024 presidential elections and I think its pivotal to determining the final outcome of this war, and Putin will do everything to get trump or someone like him to win the elections and cut off aid to UKraine, and force Ukraine to an armistice. So yah expect this war to get a lot worse in 2024 as Putin has his back to the wall. and getting very desperate so his regime survives and he does not fall out of a window. So yah Putin will probably do: 1. Full mobilization, and go to total war footing as PUtin has nothing to lose and very desperate. 2. Escalate the confrontation between Russia and NATO to the point of near war status, to scare US voters to vote for a pro peace candidate. also crash the markets and put the US economy into recession. Putin and the Russian elites will be watching the events of the 2024 USA elections and the results will have a pivotal impact on the war. If Trump (or someone like him) wins, war ends in 2025 or 2026 with an armistice with Russia with the Russians keeping whatever they won in Ukraine. Putin will spin this as a victory and his regime survives. or if Biden wins war ends in 2025 or 2026, USA further increases aid to Ukraine maybe even more sanctions on Russia, Russia may try all out desperate offensives to try to inflict as much damage on the Ukrainians and dig in again for the 2028 US elections. but I think the Russian economy cannot take the strain of 4 more years of the war anymore, Russian economists forecast that the Russian economy can last until 2025 or 2026 before it starts faltering badly. and military analysts forecast that Russia will have tank and APC shortages by 2026, judging by the rate of loss of Russian tanks and APCs in the war. Russian elites will probably move to oust Putin and his clique from power in order to save as much of their economy as possible stop the war , remove sanctions and move to much better relations with the west, and probablyi order a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including the crimea. Russians will cut their losses.
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hahahah while Russia wants to show the west that there is no point in rearming Ukraine since we have the capability to scale up the our war making capacity, hahahaha. I find this so amusing since hte west will view this good, the Russians are putting more of their economy to a war footing and destroying their economy with not much change in the front lines but massive amoutns of Russian losses, good time to give much more money and weapons to Ukraine so the Russians put more of their economy to a war footing, the more Russia's economy goes into war footing, the more Russia's economy is destroyed, after this war is over, it will be very hard for the Russians to reconfigure their industries back to civlian since this needs a lot of money, and after the war is over, no more western investments or aid money from USA and EU. the Russian economy will be much ruined and as I said, earlier, the Russian national wealth fund war chest which it has bulit in the last decade will run out in 2025, this will really be disastrous for the Russians.the Russians currently put 30 percent of their GDP to a war footing. Not surprised if by the time the war ends it will be 50 to 60 percent with not much change in te front lines except for possibly 1 million Russian casualties or more and 10K destroyed Russian tanks and APCs. with the Russian economy starting to experience hyperinflation and possible war time rationing of essential goods by 2025 or 2026.
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russians are so amusing when Russia loses this war, Russia will civil war. No army to prevent the other republics to break away from Russia as the gov is bankrupt and with weak contested leadership. Back in 1917, when Russia was breaking up at least you had the Communists to rally behind, the Russian commies manage to rally many subjects of the Russian empire to reign in most of the breakaway republics(Except for the Baltic states, Poland and Finland), now after this war is over there will be no Commie party , red army to rally behind, it will be a bunch of PMCs , regional militias, warlords etc. no strong leadership or ideology to rally behind, I think for a decade or so Russia will resemble China in the 1920s where there was no central gov. and the country was ruled by warlords with their own private armies. The only time China got unified was when the KMT Chinese nationalsits who preached a Chinese republican ideology that Sun yat Sen Espoused managed to gain popularity among the Chinese people to rally vs. the warlords. They managed to Unify China tenously in 1929 with the success of the Northern Expedition but were later overthrown by the CCP in 1949. I think Russia will undergo a period of political economic chaos maybe 10 years then the Russian people will get sick and tired of blood shed and chaos and manage to stabilize their country. Probably with 50 percent less of their pre war territory lost to secession. I think Russia will have a authoritarian military junta at first but will become later a Euro centeric more or less democratic state with Western support, I think the future Russia after this war is over. will be still be the largest country in the world despite losing massive amounts of territory to secession and will have most of the industrial areas under their control, yes it will be very hard for Russians to endure but I think Russia will bounce back after many years of purging its Soviet and Putin regime past and move to be a real civliazed democratic European country. Heck I can see Russia possibly joining NATO and the EU in like 40-50 years. with a view on opposing a resurgent China in the east.
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another one, I think the Loss of India due to independence would probably lead to the gradual decolonization of the British empire in the 60s like in OTL becoming a commonwealth, this esp. in the face. of a new power balance post WW3 1950 to 1956. (I posited WW3 in this timeline would be Germany vs. the USSR, Japan vs. the USA with the British neutral. I think Germany vs. USSR round 2, would result in the USSR pushing all the way tot he Pyrenees. conquering all of Western and Eastern Europe with the exception of Spain and Portugal(British troops land there to protect them from the USSR). commie revolutions in France and Italy make conquests easier. Japan is conquered by the USA and later turned into a USA territory like Puerto Rico, I posit the USA lost like 1.5 million dead in the pacific war tht the USA would not give the Japanese independence(the Japaanese probably lost like 15 million dead in the war or roughly ten percent of its population. ) and turn it into an American territory. purge its military and civlian leadership with thousands hanged is post war war crimes trials. USSR would probably conquer manchuria, Korea, and Hokkaido and the Sakhalins. China woud turn commie under the CCP and support commie rebellions in indochina, Burma. New cold war between USA and the USSR. starting 1957. Again no nukes are developed in this timeline's WW3 but a bunch of innovations are used like mass use of jet fighters, long range missles.,.use of computers(USA) for logistics management, mass use of assault rifles(Germany , USSR). Atomic bombs are probably devleoped during the cold war but not used in war. Maybe in WW4 between the USA and USSR.
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I predict by end of 2025 Russians will suffer well over 1 million casualties total . I predict Trump will continue to support Ukraine as the USA military industrial complex is profiting hard supplying the Ukrainians in the war. and they have strong influence with Donald Trump in fact I predict Trump will crank up the weapons supply to Ukraine so more money for USA military industrial complex. as for war ending. NOt surprised if war ends in 2025 or in 2026. Russians already mentioned in 2023 that they can continue the war until 2026. since their economy cant handle the war after 2025. and as I have been saying since the war started in 2022, its all about the economy and while the Russians may artificially support the Russian economy it cant do it forever and the longer the war goes, the more damaged the Russian economy and after the war is over, the full effect of the war will be felt hard by the Russian people as the artificial supports for the Russian economy comes crashing down. and what the effects will be.... how about Hyperinflation, high cost of food prices, high unemployment, depressed economy. severe devaluation of the Russian currency wiping out savings, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans coming home to find out their savings in rubles have been wiped out due to hyperinflation, no jobs, and Russian gov not caring for them and even oppressing them more to maintain control. also due to a depressed hyperinflated Russian economy how about Putin in order to deal with large protests and public discontent tries to shift blame to oligarchs and elites blaming them for the failings of the war, and these elites havfe their own PMCs private military companies who are heavilly recruiting from the discredited Russian army and demobilized war veterans. ....all the recipes for a good ole RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR .
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my take on this alternate WW2. start of the war in 1939, USA is neutral , Allies: GB, Russia, France, ITaly, Republic of China vs. Central powers: Germany, Japan, Austro Hungary , Ottoman Empire. Great Britain has a strong rivalry pre war with Germany and Japan, with GB wanting to limit German power in Europe and Japanese power in Asia. GB, France and Russia aids Republic of China in its war with Japan starting 1937. USA is strongly isolationist and its pres. LIndburgh is Pro Germany in general but its policy is Neutral. Japan decides to strike both the Russians and British but ignores the pH and other USA territories. No effect on USA public sentiment and policy. Indochina in this timeline is controlled by the Japanese having conquered it in WW1 from the French. The Japanese attack into Burma and Mongolia along with minor offensives to distract the KMT Chinese in order to cut the supply lines to the KMT CHinese and go into Malaya with the aim of capturing Singapore. British navy is strentched thin fighting major sea battles in the Atlantic vs. the Germans and the Japanese in the south China sea and Indian ocean. Japanese invade Ceylon. as a possible stepping stone to support an invasion into India. no Japanese or German attacks on USA territory and assets. Allies the same. USA while the gov. has German sympathies is selling to all sides.
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the chinese yuan has always been controlled by the Chinese gov. its not a free currency and wonder why its been 1 USD = 7 Yuan since the 90s. its quite amusing when you have all these economists and youtubers saying the Yuan will replace the dollar , yah maybe if the Chinese economy GDP surpasses that of the USA, I dont see that happening anytime soon. In fact lately the Chinese economy is in trouble lots of unemployment and failed businesses in China and the Chinese gov are just covering everything up , Chinese economic statistics from the Chinese gov all doctored, and you have a Chinese leader called Xi Jinping or Putin wannabe 2.0 who is trying to be like Putin and challenge the west. but the Chinese economy is very much dependent on exports esp. to the west. who are its best customers.
Putin and Xi Xinping are very much linked together politically, if one falls the other also falls, I dont see Xi Jinping getting a third term, in fact, he will probably before or after his term ends, just fall out of a window or in CHina die of natural causes while under house arrest. There is a lot of opposition from the Chinese elites in the CCP, the so called Red Families who control the CCP and China. and the real oligarchs of China. They dont like how Xi Jinping has steered the focus of the Chinese gov from economic development to military confrontation with their best customer...the USA. Xi Jinping wants war with Taiwan with similiar reasons to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Many of the Chinese PLA high command do not agree with Xi Jinping since they know they will lose the war with Taiwan and the USA. That is why you currently have a number of PLA generals suddenly getting replaced. Xi Jinping is trying to purge the PLA and replace the head guys of the PLA with yes men so he can get on with the invasion of Taiwan.
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my take Putin is kicked out after losing this war, a military junta gov takes over, but its hold on Russia is tenous due to not having a strong leader, also collapsed economy , anger at losing the war, gov not able to bring law and order over lar
ge portions of Russian fed. economic hardship leads to unrest , massive Russian refugee crisis on neighbouring nations. US and her allies support the Moscow gov. since it wants a stable solid but weak and contrallable Moscow gov. but a weakened army, the Turks and Chinese former USSR states, also want the same thing. a military weak Russia, stable gov. and econony , while the neighbourhoring states do not want a massive Russian refugee crisis and a possible civil war spilling into their borders but they want a significantly weakened Russia so it does not create this kind of geopolitical problem. in the future. I think the Russian Fed will lose 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession, in the Caucasus , Central Asia , while the Russian Fed will still have the larget geography in the former USSR states, its greatly weakened. economically and militarilly. Ukraine in the meantime while devastated badly in the war, rebuilds rapidly with a massive hundreds of billions of USD marshal plan from the USA and EU. and their allies. Ukraine econimically booms during reconstruction recovery, while there is a lot of corruption gov reforms shakes out its USSR influence and models itself to EU countries. same with Belarus. looking towards EU intergratuon and NATO membership. the land of the former USSR becomes a great game of influence between USA/EU, Turkey/Saudi, and China. Ukraine, Belarus, Baltics, Armenia , Georgia would be firmly under USA EU influence, the Caucasus and parts of Central Asia would be untder Turkish influence and large parts of Central Asia and the far east under Chinese influence. Russia will flip flop mainly under USA/EU influence but also being heavilly influenced by the Turks and the CHinese. Russia will still retain strong pervasive gov corruption despite attempts to reform. Chaotic political situation in Russia, as the USA, Turks and Chinese EU, do not want another strong leader to emerge out of Russia, and encourages corruption there more or less to keep Russia weak. USA and EU wants a democratic European leaning Russia with a liberal leadership. the Chinese and Turks dont want that. The Chinese want a leader they can control and subordonate to Chinese power. Meanwile Russian political sitaution is chaotic with clashes between liberal, nationalist elements. and the Russian gov has to deal with secessionists with the Russian gov not being able to control the Russian military at times. Russia for the next 10-20 years would be more akin to a third world country in Europe ala Moldova.
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this video seems to assume the Russian military is competent enough to even go toe to toe with NATO, well seeing the Russian perfomance of 2 years of war in Ukraine, I think its safe to say, that the Russian military sucks bad, cannot even defeat Ukraine suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties trying to capture villages and towns. trying to expand the 20 percent of Ukraine it holds and mind you it sued to hold 40 percent of UKraine until the Ukrainians pushed recaptured 50 percent of what they lost in late 2022.
Very embarassing for a Russian army that lauds itself as the 2nd strongest army in the world.
In the next few years the so called self boasting 2nd strongest army in the world will probably be buying North Korean tanks and disguising them as Russian tanks hahaha. As of 2024, Russia is already buying North korean artillery and missles , and North korean weapons are known to be of poor and shoddy quality, and I remember before the war, Russia was laughing at the North Korean weapons, now the Russians are buying them...utter humiliation....
How about teh Russians fielding T-55s, and WW2 artillery , the last time the Russians fielded them was during the invaison of Czechoslovkia in 68. Heck its so bad the Russians are fielding T-55s that were used during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 hahahah. I dont think this is a sign of a victorious army or even a strengthening army.
Russia will be a future military history study of how corruption, incompetence , combat doctrine, nepotism can destroy one of the strongest armies of the world. Yah the Russian army is like if you put Homer simpson in charge.
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they dont have the labour since the Central Asian former USSR country citizens of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Tajikistan etc. who make up the majority of the migrant labour market in Russia dont want to go to Russia since the ahole Russian gov will raid Russian businesses pick them up as illegal aliens then forcibly send them to Ukraine as cannon fodder. the word has gotten around and most of them left Russia back to their home countries, and the Russians are luring Africans Indians and other citizens of poor third world nations to go to Russia promised high paying jobs what they get are working for cheap in a Russian arms factory for women and the men become cannon fodder in Ukraine. and from what I hear , Russians are also hiring North Korean men to be both cannon fodder and factor workers but they dont come cheap and Kim has been asking for higher prices for them. So the Russians are talking with the Yemeni Houthis and Afghan Taliban to actually send Yemeni and Afghan men to the front or factory labour , and the local Russians well, they dont want to be sent to the front , the convict population is really low , and the convicts also dont want to go to Ukraine, and convict factory labour well not enough, and the Russian population is not enough to work in the arms factories. So there you go the Russians have sabotaged themselves, goes to show you the Russian gov arms are very much uncoordinated and feud amongst themselves and cause all these mess ups, very much like Putin, very short sighted, no long term planning, and when they do something, its very much clumsy ham fisted . Hey just like the Russian army and its performance in this war.
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I predict after this war is over, Russia will go into civil war , Russia will become like China in the 1920s ruled by warlords with no central gov. or be like Mexico int he 1910s where you had a succession of political factions taking over after overthrowing the previous gov. nevertheless, I predict the civil war will last a decade , with millions of Russians as casualties, a collapsed Russian economy and millions of Russians becoming refugees to Europe in the largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Putin wanted to be Peter the great, he will be compared to Czar Nicholas II , the Czar who lost the Russian empire. Well Putin will be rated as one of the worst leaders Russia has ever had, heck even Yeltsin will be rated as a competent leader over him, even though Yeltsin was a drunk bufoon who liked to dance and grope women in public , Russia was stable more or less and had more or less good relations with the west. Putin started out as a great leader with a lot of promise, now he is about to destroy his own country Russia and being compared to hitler. Yes the Russian fed I predict ten years of civil war will still exist minus 50 percent of its pre war teritory. New nations wil form as massive areas of the Russian fed secede. Yep, you wil see the return of many Russian hookers in the streets of Clichy Paris Hamburg St. Pauli just like the 90s but on roids.
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yah that is why the Russians are recruiting NKs since the local Russians from the poorer areas have gotten smarter and thought hey so what if they offer me 4K USD per month , if I cant spend it since there is a 75 percent chance I will be kaput then the money is useless. and his relatives will not get the money. the convicts are low in number since most are kaput, and the ones left are refusing since going is practically a death sentence, the foreign volunteers from India and Sri Lanka nepal etc. have smartened up, and thought I am paying 20K USD to get myself sent to Russia for a 2K USD per month offer and get Russian citizenship but again have a 75 percent chance of dying. , yep the volunteers are mostly dried up , now its the NKs are 2K USD per soldier per month , cannon fodder, Russians are losing this war, when they have to turn to the NKs , literally the bottom of the barrell. You know the Russians are desperate when they have to buy NK artillery ammo(which now consitutes 50 to 60 percent of the Russian artillery ammo stockpile and has a 50 percent failure rate) and Missles(poor copies of Russian Iskander Ms with a 50 percent failure rate). and I predict in the future Russia will be buying NK tanks possibly in late 2025 to 2026
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I think that by 2050, the Russian army would still be using T-62s, T-72s, T80s and T-90s. Since Russia would be undergoing decades long social economic and poltical chaos which will see the Russian federation fracture into multiple independent republics. Russian fed will lose 50 percent of its territory to secession. and it will be a gradual decline to this state for the next 10 years maybe even more after the war is over. and Putin is gone. and the secessionists supported by Turkey, China and probably the USA and the EU too. Russia turns into a 2nd rate power is still in control of European Russia west of the Urals, the Urals, large portions of Siberia, Kaliningrad and probably Far East Russia which becomes a Kaliningrad style enclave, Russian fed would lose control over the Caucaus, Central Asia and huge swathes of Far East. A land corridor is probably retained to link Russian far east with the rest of Russia what is left of it. these secessionists becomes Turkish and Chinese controlled puppets. Russia becomes a great game. for USA, Turkey and China. and huge geopolitical game for the mid 21st century, which will last for decades, expect proxy wars to happen in these states. as the focus is resources.
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Putin will dance Russia to ruin, the fun will begin when the war ends and Putin tries to rebuild the Russian economy first and the Russian military second. he will find the following: Hyperinflation, Western investments not coming back to Russia, western sanctions slow motion to be removed esp. the EU imposed ones. EU customers not coming back to buy Russian oil and gas , and Trump will enact his pump baby pump which will crash the world oil prices. all of these combined will seriously hinder Russia's attempts to rebuild his economy and military also it will cause widespread unrest in Russia esp. made worse from the several hundred thousand returning Russian war veterans who will face hyperinflation, the loss of value of their savings, high unemployment and a repressive corrupt Russian gov. and high food prices. yep this will all cause social and political unrest withi high crime rates and protests and disorder, all made worse by the support of Russian anti gov groups by USA and Ukraine. also high corruption also interferes with Putin attempts to rebuild his economy and military.
I think Putin will respond by getting massively repressive , possible martial law , purges in the Russian military gov and oligarchy. However what will be a major opposition to Putin are not the Russian people but the Russian PMCs, many of which have been formed during the war and are private armies of Russian oligarchs and elites if Putin cracks down on them and tries to ban and disarm these private armies, there will be war....A RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR.
I predict all this will happen within ten years after the end of the war. Russia will become Syria 2.0 which will a decade or more and result in Russia breaking up. The new great game will be Russia in ten years. with USA, China , Turkey , Ukraine all playing for influence on the factions in this war. You will have the largest failed state in the world, with millions of Russian refugees running away to the EU and beyond.
As Russia collapses in a future civil war, this is how Ukraine will get back its lost territories and also influence the outcome of the civil war, not surprised if Ukraine directly intervenes in this civil war and even annexes former Russian federation territory as reparations.
The fall of Russia into Civil war will be the largets Geopolitical event in the next decade with effect far surpassing that of the Ukraine war.
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well the longer the war goes, the more the Russian economy bleeds and with the coming worldwide recession depression will crash oil and gas prices and crumble the Russian economy will impact its war making capabilities, the Russian economy will simply be unable to the fund the war resulting in unrest food shortages etc. that will end the war. that is why I think the war will end by late 2023. Collapsing Russian economy leading to unrest , by that time, the Russians will probably have taken the donbass but bogged down trying to form a bridge to transnistria . The war is an expensive static in eastern and southern ukraine, becoming like the later stages of the iran iraq war. a war of attirtion with tanks and modern aircraft. However the Russian forces in Ukraine are in a poor shape using weapons from the 20th century(not surprised they are fielding T-55s). Putin and his inner circle is purged and a new gov takes over that declares a arministice ceasefire, meanwhile, Ukraine has enjoyed battlefield victories taking advantage of the sorry state of the Russian army and discruption of command and control due to the unrest in Russia. manages to take back huge porition of Ukraine. In the end , there is a negotiated peace for hte Russian army to withdraw completely back to Russia but still keep the Crimea. However the withdrawal is chaotic and the Russians practically abandon their troops in Ukraine who are forced to go back to Russia by themselves with no support. Crimea is later given back to Ukraine a few years later in exchange for the complete lifting of sanctions and economic aid. the burden on the Ruissian economy is simply very catastrophic with very bad sanctons which results in the Europeans mostly stop buying energy sources or even trading with teh RUssians , to a global recession depression which results in the collapse of the oil and gas prices whcih the Russian economy is reliant on along with the expense of running the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy simply has fallen apart resulting in a Russian revolution. and the decade of the 2020s will be historic for Russia as it will see Russia lose from 25 to 50 percent of its current territory to secession as multiple Russian republics declare independence due to political chaos and economic depression. and the Russian army mainly demobilizing as its economy collapses. and collapse in morale due to the defeat in the Ukraine war. Russia becomes a proxy battleground between USA and China. for its resources. By 2030 Russia still exists but 25 to 50 percent smaller with the secession of its repubclics in the Caucasus , Siberia and the Far East.
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I think Russia is being set up to be ground down by this war. which is a good thing. with a leader like Putin who seems to only want to hear what he wants to hear like to micromanage the war incompetently and has staked his regime survival to getting some sort of "victory" in the Ukr war. THe longer Russia stays and fights this war, the more it will be horrible for Russia economically militarilly and even socially. Even with a Russian "victory" which I think means the Russians keep whatever they have conquered in Ukraine. The economic and social trauma of the war where several hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties and in the state of the Russian economy I doubt it if the surviving Russian trooops will be fully paid and compensated by the Kremlin, this will cause social chaos and unrest back in Russia when you have hundreds of thousands maybe a millioin or so by the end of the war. coming back to Russia who are psychologically damaged, not paid or underpaid, angry at the kremlin gov. coming back to a Russia with no jobs facing economic collapse and depression, and if Russia lost the war, facing discrmination being blamed for losing the war. but they do bring back military skills how to kill , how to use military weapons, ....taking up the example of the crazy Russian 90s where Russia expereinced a bad wave of law lessness and unrest due to defeat in the 1st chechen war, fall of the USSR economic depression, and defeat in the Soviet afghan war. Well looking at the potential results of the Ukr war on Russia which is even significantly bigger than the Soviet Afghan war and 1st Chechen war. and the fact no help is coming to Russia from western foreign investors like in the 90s, Russia will experience an unrest not seen since perhaps 1917.
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Yep highly agree with Jason here, and as an extra I think Biden winning the 2024 USA elections will cause a massive political tsunami in the Kremlin and among Russian elites , basically Russian elites will surmise that the Russian economy cannot support the war for 4 more years and want to salvage it and with Putin in the way, they will get rid of him as soon as possible. and blame everything on him.
In this scenario I think Putin gets removed from power in 2025 , probably something gets announced that he dies of natural causes. His successor blames everything on him, after a few months of negotiations. Russia withdraws from Ukraine and Crimea. in exchange for 1. lifting of all sanctions. 2. Unfreezing of all Russian assets in western banks. 3. no ICC arrest warrants for Russian leaders. 4. Normalized relations with the west. 5. formal peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine recognizing borders.
in the aftermath of the war, the new post Putin Moscow gov will be unstable. as despite assistance from both the west and China, to keep the Russian economy stable. there is a massive tide of political and social instability due to the defeat in the war, also the fact that foreign investors are staying away from Russia due to instability. Despite Moscow's attempts at economic stability, Russia undergoes hyperinflation and there is high prices of essential as well as very high unemployment which leads to social unrest. also returning Russian veterans of the war leads to high crime rates . Russian PMCs become the real Russian military and security forces as teh Russian and police forces are seen to be as a joke due to high levels of uncontrolled corruption and desertions, and the Russian PMCs provide a source, a center of security stability as they are very organized, very effective at what they do backed up by Russian oligarch money. With a weak Moscow gov with weak military and police, Russian oligarchs run the show and its back to the 90s again. with the oligarchs manipulating Russian politicos as puppets as the Russian PMCs are practically the Russian military and police and the Russian economy is very much controlled by the oligarchs.
While the Russian oligarchs are united in not allowing another Putin come to power again and prevent too much political and economic instability and create an environment of all of them making money, they are pretty much at odds with each other in terms of politics and how to run Russia which results in the country for a period of time experiencing the 90s all over again but a 90s on steroids. as political indecision grips the nation. I can see a number of Russian regions break away from Russia to form their own country like Chechnya and possibly even Dagestan but I think 90 percent of Russia will remain intact but Russian provinces will have more autonomy from the weak Moscow gov. and the Russian corporations backed by their PMCs will be a power unto themselves. I dont think they will engage in all out wars, but will be engaging in political economic battles and some turf wars but I think the Oligarchs will probably be cooperating with each other more or less.
Meanwhile Ukraine gets trillions of USD of funding for reconstruction which booms the economy , shortly after the war is over Ukraine gets accepted into the EU and NATO. Pro Russia govs are kicked out in Belarus and Georgia, Moldova , Belarus , Georgia and Armenia begin serious application to NATO and the EU. within a decade Moldova and Georgia get accepted into NATO and EU. Armenia gets accepted into the EU. All of these are done without comment from Russia.
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for the US gov and establishment , the Ukraine war is very important to them in fact, I think its their top agenda since its the perfect opportunity to really weaken Russia and remove Putin from power and as I said before the US 2024 elections is crucial and determinate to the final outcome of this war which I think will end in 2025. Trump wins, he forces the Ukrs to a korean war style armistice with teh Russians, Ukrs will cut their losses and war ends in 2025. If Biden wins, Russian elites cut their losses and overthrows Putin in 2025, withdraws from Ukraine including crimea in return lifting of all sanctions, restorations of normal relations with the west and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine. Either way what happens, Russia will still be severely weakened and I think wont be a threat to their neighbours. Even if the Putin regime manages to survive, the Russian economy under massive economic sanctions, masses losses of the war, a dangerously militarized economy , minimal foreign investments, economic depression , Putin will not be able to rebuild his army to pre war levels, in fact, I htink Putin will not threaten his neighbours since he will focused on repairing his economy and regime survival. Simliar to Saddam Hussein and iraq after its defeat in Desert storm in 91 which severely weakened his army and economy, Saddam regime may have survived but Iraq was under massive sanctions but was not threatening to his neighbours until the fall of his regime in 2003, since Saddam was focused on internal problems and the survival of his regime, in fact, the Iraqi army was not expanded and rearmed since the economy was in depression and Saddam had no money to massively rearm his military after it was mauled by the US and its allies in 91. Same thing will happen to Russia post war even if the Putin regime survives.
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and if Putin thinks he can outlast the west he is a fool.. Russia has a GDP equivalent to Italy. , the combined countries who are supporting Ukraine has a combined GDP 100X larger than Russia, Russia is under ,massive economic sanctions which will probably get worse, the Russian army is doing poorly in the battlefield, a big disappointment, the Russian army is getting weaker while the Ukrainian army is getting stronger. The Russians have spent 57 billion USD for the war in 2022, The USA and her allies have given Ukraine 100 billion USD in aid . Putin in his desperation to get some kind of win from this war for regime survival will run Russia his own country to the ground, if millions of Russian die as long as his regime survive, he wont even bat an eye. HOwever as said , this war will ruin Russia due to the ego and ambition of Putin, the Russians will rue the day that Putin came to power,, Putin will ruin not only Russia maybe cause a break up civil war of Russia, he will destroy his legacy. Putin after his death and after this war is over will be known as one of the worst Russian leaders, the Russian leader who led his country from one of the best decades of his country in history to some of the worst decades and ruin for Russia.
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I dont think the Russian fed will collapse after it loses this war. I do however think Russia will undergo a period of chaos a few yeasr of power struggles , economic collapse , collapse of law and order, Russian ruble becoming worthless, even worth less than toilet paper. millions of Russian refugees streaming west, It wont look like a civil war, not quite, but I think what will come out of it, is back to the usual Russian system so faux democracy , but the twist will be is that the Oligarchs and their PMCs will control the country, the Russian gov and military will be weak and puppets of the oligarchs who will never allow a leader like putin to come to power again, they will make sure the Russian leader sitting in the Kremlin will be weak and controlled. Russian provinces and republics will have a bit more autonomy and even have their own PMCs. doing their own deals with foreign powers while swearing fealty to Moscow. Russia becomes a decentralized state , the biggest narco state in the world where anything can happen. Not surprised if they keep the Russian ruble but everyone transacts in USD, Euro , UK Pounds, Crypto. Chinese Yuan. Yep the 90s will come back to Russia but this time on steroids and last for decades. Russia wont be threatening its neighbours for several decades, it will be very much inward focused on resolving its own internal problems and ignore everyone else. However Russia will become a great game battleground of influence between China and USA(along with other more minor foreign actors). For its resources and strategic location.
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I think Ukraine will fight on , and the peace deals will be a failure, of course Trump will say well we negotiated a peace deal without the Ukrainians....more like a peace deal for the USA to withdraw from the war, lift all the sanctions on Russia from the US side and unfreeze like 50 billion USD worth of Russian assets held in US banks. Not surprised if Trump does his bullshit stupid tariffs on the EU and her allies. and demands they stop aiding Ukraine.
I think the EU and Canada will come together balk at the Americans, cut parts of their welfare spending , significantly raise military spending the arms production, increase sanctions on Russia and significantly increase military and economic support for Ukraine. Ukraine will be defiant to the USA with EU and Canadian backing. EU gives the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine 300 billion USD of it. All restrictions are removed from weapons use on Russia to Ukraine. from the Europeans, even UK and French troops are deployed in Ukraine.
Meanwhile USA while not quitting from NATO minimizes its support for it, Trump even makes statements that USA will not intervene if Russia invades NATO countries, this causes the rest of NATO esp. the EU nations to rearm and raise spending on their mlitaries and arms production which is being given to Ukraine.
The Russian may think that they have gotten a massive boon with a Trump admin getting out of Ukraine and being on its side. However this has awakened the EU and Canada from its slumber get together and confront the Russian threat. with a rapid mobilization of their economies and industries. Even with USA minimizing its commitments to NATO the rest of NATO steps up and even the Russians do not attack NATO , they still threaten but its nothing, Russia knows that war with NATO even without USA support will end in NATO victory and disaster for Russia. and now French and British troops are in Ukraine and the EU and Canada have massively raised their commitments to Ukraine.
the EU now views Russia as an existential threat. and have now taken steps to deal with Russia. USA meanwhile focuses on domestic issues and the Pacific vs. China. Russia, and Ukraine the war rumbles on. however this time, with increased EU UK Canadian allied support Ukraine hits the Russians even more focusing on destroying its oil infrastructure and economy. while also resisting Russian offensives, trading land but inflcting massive casualties on the attacking Russians. yes the Russians were given a big respite economically with the lifting of American sanctions and unfreezing of Russian assets in US banks. however the Ukrainians were also given a big boon with massively increaed military and economic aid, French and British troops in Ukraine.
Also the USA does its drill baby drill oil policy, a crash in oil prices hits the Russian economy hard,
I think war ends in 2028 with a Russian civil war where the Russian economy collapses. triggered by some event maybe the death of Putin or the massacre of protesters who knows. USA is also in chaos with a USA economy in recession, a demo controlled house and senate opposing Trump decrees , massive anti Trump protests in hte US cities.
So the new world order post Ukraine war 2022 to 2028 will be will see the downfall of two great powers Russia and the USA. Russia in civil war, USA in a constitutional crisis and a deep recession. not seen since 2008 or the covid crisis of 2020. with massive anti gov protests in American cities. not seen since the BLM riots. with the EU and China ascendant watching and profiting on the background. I think Canada while not becoming a member of the EU is given associate status, will strong free trade deals with the EU. and close military, economic and political relations as Canada seeks to decouple from the USA. While I dont think there will be a civil war, the USA has been economically and politically wounded by the Trump admin, the dems win the 2028 elections and also sweep the house and senate. then the new demo gov rapidly seeks to renew close ties with the rest of the west which was cut during the trump admin. USA is still the strongst economy and military in the world.
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yah after teh war the RUssian economy will be in near collapse for several years . in fact Russian economic recovery post war will be made worse by foreign investors shunning Russia like it had the bubonic plague. THe Russian gov will msot likely be reliant on foreign aid from USA EU China India to survive. in fact that is when Chinese will swoop in and start taking over Russian corporations and Chinese companies. start coming in and buying Russian companies , taking over resources at bargain basement prices. funding local warlords and oligarchs trying to debt control the Russian gov and economy. Russia will be the wild west all over again a new great game of influence, political and economic control will be fought over Russia between USA, EU, China, Turkey, for control of its resources and Russia is a very useful gateway to Europe and central asia. Also not surprised if Russia becomes the most massive narco state in teh world , since with the collapse of law and order and law and order in the hands of oligarchs, criminals , regilnal govs. it will be easy for criminal groups worldwide and locally to use Russia as a base for their activities. Heck not even surprised the situation in Russia might be so bad, that the UN might come in and intervene, or the Russian currency dollarizes. I dont thnk Russia will collapse in fact I think the Russian federation will survive mostly intact, but it will become a bit more decentralized state with the real power being in the hands of the oligarchs and regional govs. and their PMCs. and the Moscow gov and Russian military being very weak and puppets of the oligarchs.
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and another thing is the formation of Russian PMCs, to counter wagner, other Russian leaders like Shoigu are forming their own PMCs . if there is a lot of PMCs like wagner (Prigozhin), Patriot(Shoigu), Chechens(Kadyrov) and others. which are in essence private armies who answser to their leader and not the armed forces of Russia, then we have a problem. In an event where putin dies or is removed from power, these guys will engage in a struggle for power. and these guys will use these private armies to attain power. and that results in civil war. I think the break of Russia will be that and it will be gradual in the next ten years or so, where the rule of law in Russia breaks down, due to political infighting, high crime rates, depressed economy. this leads to Russian states deeming it a liability to remain in the federation since the central gov cannot seem to effectively govern the country, yep , you have a civil war to decide who rules Russia, results in Russian states forming their own milittias and not answering to Moscow, so this results in a confusing civil war between nationalists fighting to rule Russia and also fighting secessionists and other armed groups. A throwback to the Russian civil war of 1917 to 1923, then you also have meddling from USA NATO, Turkey, China and other neighbouring states.
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ep and that clip of those buryat troops arguing with their chechen handlers about weapons and ammo shortages, this is a very good example of what happens when you throw massive amounts of troops in the fight more than your logistics can handle, and that is a very good reason why these troops are dying in massive numbers , its turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. a target rich environment of poor trained, armed and low morale no motivation Russian troops, there were fears and scares of 500K Russian troops being sent to the front, yah massive numbers but remember those troops need to be fed, trained supplied, armed, in order to fight properly otherwise they turn into a mob that is only good as a bullet absorbers. and the Ukrainians has LOTs of bullets. and Russians logistics is chaotic , and being heavilly disrupted by HIMARs strikes. Russian logistics can be argued to be worse now than they invaded in Feb 2022. Russia may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but if they cant reach the Russian troops in the front due to poor logistics then those weapons are useless. not surprised the Ukrs to Russian kill ratio in the Donbass battles these days in like 5 to 10 Russian soldier for every one Ukrainian soldier casualtiy. also count Russian conscrupts and convicts are being forced to attack dug in , fortified Ukrainian positions many times in high ground positions, with claymore mines, minefields, fields of fire in relatively open ground. attacking mainly in the day since these convicts and conscrupts do not have night vision gear. this is a MASSACRE. that is why its takes a week to dislodge Ukrainian positions. Even with the Russians doing incremental attacks like advancing then digging in then doing it again later going from fire position to fire positions, the Ukrainains just rain accurate artillery fire on them. Worse later if the Ukrs get cluster munititions for theiir missles and artillery,
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after Putin is gone , Irakli the traitor will follow . and Georgia will get back Abkhazia only a matter of time. or hey how about we start with Georgians overthrowing Irakli in a maidan style revolution, , wonder how Moscow will respond, lets see MOscow is bogged down in a bloody war in Ukraine worst war since ww2 trying to beat ukraine by trying to capture the Donbass, and supposedly 80 percent of the Russian army is in Ukraine, the Russian black sea fleet is in hiding in Russia. If a maidan style revolution happens in Georgia and the new gov says bye bye Russia and supports Ukraine USA NATO EU 100 percent. Russia does not want to open another front and if Russia ever invades Georgia again , with the sad state of the Russian army, I dont think it will be Georgia 2008, all over again, It will be another Russian debacle. and it will just invite a bit more sanctions on Russia Im thining how aboiut increased military aid to Ukraine, approval of jets, tanks ATACMs, for starters, how about more weapons shippped to Georgia, Even Ukrainian volunteers sent to Georgia to fight. How about near total sanctions from USA EU and their allies, like an oil price cap of 30 USD.
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so I think 2024 will be a very pivotal year to the war as the USA presidential elections are coming and Putin wants to influence the USA elections to get a pro peace USA president in the white house in order for the USA to pressure Ukraine to end the war in a armistice where Russia retains a substantial amount of Ukr territory. I think the Russians will try to scare the USA voters into voting a Pro Peace USA pres. in 2024, and Russia will do this by escalating the war in Ukraine which includes: 1. the use of chemical weapons in the battlefield. 2. possible nuke weapon testing in the black sea near the Ukr coasts. 3. moving nuke weapons around in a procative manner. 4. targetting Ukr supply lines close to NATO borders. 5. Possible military clashes between RUssian and NATO troops along the borders. Putin wants to amp up a possible WW3 scare to near WW3 levels short of a war to scare American voters possibly crash the USA economy by crashing the stock markets. and getting someone like DOnald Trump elected to the white house. If someone like Donald Trump is elected in 2024, the war will probably end in 2025 with an armistice where Russia keeps its winnings. If Biden is reelected , the war might continue into 2026 or longer as Putin gets even more desperate, clamps down more on dissent, uses more chemical weapons in order to cause enough Ukrainian casualties so the Ukranians will to fight collapses, of course this results in worldwide condemnation and total sanctions on Russia(like no trade, sequestration of all Russian assets worldwide including the oligarchs Russian gov officials putting them on the interpol arrest list and pressuring other countries to follow the same sanctions) along with massive increased miltiary and financial aid to UkraIne and NATO gearing up for a possible war witjh Russia. The mass use of chemical weapons by the Russians is Putins only option short of using nukes which is crossing the line into WW3 and cause open dissent among the Russian military and his own gov. Even if Russia manages to get an armistice from the ukrs Russia will effectively be a NOrth Korea style pariah state with a collapsed economy. and still at war with a very angry Ukraine that is rapidly rebuilding its infranstructure and military with massive USA and EU allied funding. finding it difficult to rebuild and pacify its conquered areas. along with his hold on power much weakened as while the war is spun as a victory, it is really perceived as a defeat by many in Russia, esp. the oligarchs and gov officials who lost much of their assets due to the sanctons and sequestrations. Also many PMCs were formed during the war and Putin is finding it difficult to control these, due to the collapsed Russian economy, Russian troops in Ukraine most are not paid and told to stay on occupying Ukraine. in the face of continuing partisan attacks, If Putin dies, his hold on power seriously disrupted or is removed from power , Russia will probably go into civil war and that is how Ukraine will get back all of its lost territories.
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I dont think the Russian fed will collapse after this war is over, I think there will be a period of a few years of chaos but the Russian fed will mostly be intact, however the Russia that comes after it will be a much weaker Moscow gov controlled by Oligarchs, and Mafia criminal cartels. with Russian provinces having a bit more autonomy from the Moscow gov which basically becomes puppets of the oligarchs and the mafia, Russia becomes a gigantic European version of Mexico, a Narco state where the criminals and oligarchs collude to produce drugs and weapons for sale in Europe and beyond, where PMCs and provincial militias challenge the weak Russian army. and where USA and China vie for influence. It will be the 1990s on steroids and lasting longer, I can see millions of Russians leaving a Russia to get away from social and economic chaos, where the Russian ruble in worthless , everyone uses crypto and USD Euros to pay for goods , where crime rates are very high. where the unemployment rate is very hgh. The Russian oligarchs will never allow someone like Putin to be the Russian leader ever again.
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yep Putin and his yahoos can spin this as a victory yep even if Russia manages to keep all its winning like 20 percent of Ukraine , Ukraine will still keep on fighting , probably send it partisans to harrass the Russians, the Ukrs will not be intimidated and will probably join NATO and the EU all the things Russia reasoned to fight this war, at the same time the price Russia paid, half a million to a million Casualties, wrecked bankrupt economy, massive losss of prestige, greatly weakened military and continuing sanctions from the west. And for what, the 20 percent it kept, infrastructure destroyed, depopulated, lots of land mines unaccounted for, wil take a trillion USD to repair, also Russia has to keep hundreds of thousands of occupation troops in those captured territories for secuirty and pacification. Yep Russia may "win" in Ukraine by its current stated goals but it will ruin Russia in the end. and Ukraine will get back those lost territories including the Crimea via negotiation later when the new post Putin Russian gov becomes desperate and begs the west for end of sanctions and financial aid.
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this is my view, no WW3, Putin dies or is purged, more moderate Russian gov. oligarch led takes over. blames putin and a bunch of his inner circle for all the problems, withdraws Russian army back to Pre war starting pts. in exchange for most of the sanctions to be removed back to business as usual. War ends in fall to winter of this year or 2023. They purge him since Putin orders nuke strikes on Ukr which is not followed the Russian military, FSB , Oligarchs unite to purge Putin since he is getting more crazy. The war has ruined Russia, economically , politically and its prestige is in tatters. those thousand of Russian war veterans who are psycholigically damaged, angry return to a depressed Russia, massive unemployment , political chaos, this leads to high crime rates, possible Russian civil war revolution. law and order is collapsing in Russia. USA and China economically and politically take advantage. with the USA supporting Pro western Democratic groups and the Chinese supporting more nationalistic and even seperatist Russian groups. Chinese goal control Russian and Central Asian natural resources through proxies. American goal to deny Chinese goals and support a democratic stable Russia. Russian army downsizes Ukraine gets back crimea and Russia totally withdraws from Ukraine. (in excchange for economic aid and end to all sactions), Russia also withdraws from Moldova, Armenia and Georgia. Chechnya declares independence and declares an emirate of the Caucasus. with the support of CHina. and Iran. Belarus gets an independent gov. Ukraine joins the EU. The Russian so called civil war balkanizes Russia. and Russia still exists as a country with the Russian gov. excercising control over the Western part of Russia but control is shaky to non existent east of the Ural mountains, Siberia, Russian far east, Caucasus. where a bunch of Russian republics declare independence or nationalist groups have taken over with warlords and private armies. With a situation similiar to libya where its not a decalred civil war but its a civil war with some armed conflict. Since many of the belligerents have nukes. China encourages this and gains cheap natural resources. along with cheap labor and strong influence on Central Asian countries. So now business as usual except that Russia has fallen badly and China is now the only strong rival to the USA. China studies the Ukraine war hard. starts to reform its armed forces. The fall of Russia has made Russia Central Asia the Caucasus as the new great game between USA and its allies, & China and its allies. in a fight for resources. Putin has left Russia in even in a worse state than when he took over. His legacy is shit.
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My view is that the Russian economy will be kept artificially alive throughout the war, however the real clincher will come after the war, the moment Russia loses the war, Putin is removed from power, the Russian economy will crash hard, I can see 1 USD = 1K Rubles within a month of the defeat. and as the post war turmoil goes, the Russian economy will keep on falling probably stabilized when the sanctions are lifted and trade with the west goes back to normal, heck Im not surprised if the USA actually gives financial aid to the new Russian gov. just to keep Moscow afloat. If Putin wins, you will see the Russian economy dangerously in a war footing with the country still isolated, with sanctions in place, and bad relations with the west, and very low western investments in the country and a very high debt. well I can see the Russian economy continually sliding , also the high cost of pacifying its conquered Ukrainian territories and rebuilding its infrastructure also adds to the economic headache Russia will endure. Also add that thousands of Russian war veterans many will probably not be paid, these guys will become criminals to feed their families. Also supporting a strong military to keep control of its occupied Ukr terrtiories and maintaing order in Russia is a massive drain on the Russian economy and the Russian economy may not be able to maintain a strong Russia army, After its very bruising Ukraine expreience, I dont expect Russia do be a threat to anyone esp. ukraine in the near future. Russia's economy will be so shit , he can barely maintain the military he has after the war is over, expect social unrest economic depression with no hope in sight. after a Russian victory. Putin will be removed from power but it might take a decade of him doing so and Russia becomes like Stalin's Russia or Saddam's Iraq.and I think after putin is gone, Russia will undergoe a very bloody civil war. So i think the consequences for Russia is greater is Russia wins this war, as opposed to losing it. The longer that Putin is in power, the worse it will be for Rusisa.
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PMCs can be effective when you are fighting a civil war , since local commanders would be given wide leeway in commanding their local forces like private armies to fight local insurgencies, when the central gov. is incompetent with a poor command structure. where it takes a long time to approve a command. However when fighting a major war between nations like vs. Ukraine. having a broken up decentralized command and your are attacking is very very bad. since this means no to poor coordination between commanders, logistics is very much bad since commanders will be fighitng over it. A historical example would be the Taiping rebellion and the Second Sino Japanese war. In the Taiping rebellion, the Qing dynasty was forced to give independence to local commanders and governors to form their own private armies to fight the Taipings locally since the Qing dynasty imperial army was corrupt ineffecient incompetent with a very poor command structure where it can take weeks for orders to arrive from the capital say to armies in the field. where a local commander can respond very quick to rebel forces. Now in the 2nd Sino Japanese war, the KMT Chinese armies were very much decentalized, about 50 to 75 percent of the CHinese KMT armies fighting the Japanese were made up of Chinese warlord private armies who very much resented the leader of the KMT Chiang Kai Shek, and they viewed their private armies equated to political power within the KMT , so Chiang Kai Shek had to negotiate with Chinese warlords in order to fight the Japanese and many a time, these guys would just retreat when they took substantial losses. In the case of the current Ukraine war. this decentralization of the Russian army is very bad, this was already very bad at the start of hte war where you had Russian armies each with their own independent com,mand and did not really coordinate with each other failing badly in the war, yes they conquered 40 percent of Ukraine in the first months of the war but this was vs. a surprised un mobilized poorly coordinated Ukrainian military, but once the Ukr gov got the blows and got to its senses mobilized, then struck back in well coordinated fashion along with fierce local resistance , which I should say was much decentralized , it bogged down the Russians badly, stopped the Russians in their tracks and turned them back in the North. and as the Ukrainian army got better equipped trained, better coordinated and led, the Russians got into trouble. While yes politically this may be good for Putin to keep his underlings from outshining him it will be bad for proseucuting this war vs. a well coordinated, well armed, well led Ukrainian military.
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