Youtube comments of John Walsh (@johnwalsh4857).

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  172. ah its failing cause for the following reasons #1: Russia did not have a plan for this kind of contigency, the Russians never dreamed the Ukrainians would do something like this. #2 Russian command and control is inflexible , they always stick to a plan, if the plan falls apart or there is no plan. they do not know what to do, that is why the response looked uncoordinated, basically left to the commanders of individual units. #3. Notice the local Russian civilians at Kursk did not actively resist the Ukrainians, in fact many of them fled clogging the roads and impeding Russian reinforcements. #4. The Ukrainains were able to cause a lot of losses among Russian reinforcements as they came in piece meal uncoordinated no air defense and road bound(the rail links were cut off by the Ukrainians). the Ukrainians were able to hit convoys of road bound Russian reinforcements with HMARS, ATACMSs, JDAMs and GMLRS. killed thousands Ive been told. due to Ukrainian drone recon and western supplied intel from sats#5. Many of those sent as reinforcements are a mix bag of fresh conscripts and reserves from Russian units fighting in Ukraine. the Fresh conscripts are next to useless, having ZERO combat experience. The Russian veteran units from Ukraine are in poor shape, partially staffed understrength, and not configured or trained in mobile warfare their AFVs are configured turtle style. #6 Russians have no air superiority in the Kursk area, due to the fact, the Russians transferred the SAMs in the Kursk area to crimea a week before and the SU-34s luanching their glide bombs are useless since the Ukrs are quite mobile and not stationary targets. You already have a few SU-34s getting shot down as well as Russian attack helis. Lots of Ukrainian drones being used, Russian drones are hampered by the very effective Ukrainian ECMs.
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  195. As for war comparisons, this war is also very similar to the China Vietnam war of 1979. Chinese really underestimated the Vietnamese. Chinese not really motivated, poorly trained lead and coordinated(the Chinese used third rate lower quality units from southern China since their better units were north in Manchuria and NOrthern China facing the USSR). Used human wave tactics, the Chinese army in 1979 was more like the Chinese army of the 1950s. Used 2nd world war style tactics. (even bugles and human runners to communicate between units). logistics sucked, troops marched to the front, trucks were used for logistics transport along with pack animals. the Chinese had a lots of artillery and used them well, Chinese had lots of planes but did not use them since Northern Vietnam had lots of anti aircraft defences in legacy to the Vietnam war which just finished a few years earlier. Chinese navy was not used since the Soviet navy was confronting them in the South China sea. Vietnamese were highly motivated, well trained and coordinated good leadership and were well experienced having fought the Americans and their allies for a decade a few years earlier. many of the units facing the Chinese were bloodied fighitng the americans and the ARVN. One month of war the Chinese decided to withdraw with 50 to 70K casualties some unofficial sources even put the Chinese losses at 100K casualties Vietnamese lost around 60K casualties. as the Chinese used ww1 style human wave attacks in broad daylight while the Vietnamese used a conventional/guerilla style strategy on them. Chinese only used a few tanks. Chinese declared victory saying they taught vietnam a lesson haha
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  234. True the Russians have a very high tolerance for casualties, as is historically, however I do think the real battle is in the Russian economy. the longer Russia is in this war the more its military and economy gets smashed. It cost 500 mil to 1 billion USD to just maintain the war in Ukraine for Russia, Russia is estimated to have about 45 billion USD left in its war fund. and not to mention the massive costs to build and refurbish new weapons, maintain infrastructure in Russia, train and recruit and equip more sucker recruits, and of course to defend the Russian ruble from hyperinflation and to subsidize and control the price of food. The moment Russia runs out of funds it will be a catastrophe for the Russian economy, this will lead to hyperinflation, rapidly inflating food prices and it will also get harder for Russia to fund their war in Ukraine leading to logistical problems, supply shortages which will heavilly affect the war fighting capabilities of the Russians in Ukraine. Also note that its est 95 percent of the standing Russian army is deployed in Ukraine and the Russians while they are making gains, are trying to hold on to and expand the 20 percent of Ukraine they occupy. Making gains but small gains fighing over towns and villages while suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses. The more casualties and equipment losses the Russians suffer the more the Russins have to recruit and mobilize, the more the Russsinas have to produce and refurbish more equipment , the more the Russians spend money , the more money Russians spends the more the Russian economy is getting hit hard. Also the final kicker is in what happens to the Russian economy after the war is over, with the Russian economy a large part dangerously on war mode without western foreign investments, and massive debts to the Chinese and Indians, it will be a disaster on a monumental scale on the Russian economy after the war, the Russians will endure the full force of a collapsed economy , an economic tsunami probably worse than the Great depression, the economic collapse of the USSR. , venezulea, zimbabwe etc. Heck this might not even happen after the war but near the end of the war something which causes the Russians to lose the war.
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  282. Well I think the USA should send the following: Lots of Toyota Tacomas, Hiluxes, with bulletproof bodies and glass. with weapon mounts military excellent quality off road tires, wheeled APCs. Lots more Javelins, and any other top attack ATGMs, more stingers, more GPS, more night vision gear, drones esp. LOTS of switchblades secure comms. Why is that: Well, the Russians are probably planning a massive slow careful tank offensive backed up by heavy artillery, air support. The ground in southern Ukraine is perfect tank country, hard ground, open plains, weather also warming up 20 C in April. little rain. So the Russians will be conducting a classic battle of firepower, tank heavy infantry heavy cut the enemy into pockets then use massive firepower to destroy each pocket one by one at leisure. Typical Russian strategy after they get a bloody nose. The Russians will probably modify this one employing their own military trucks with elite soldiers to provide security for their convoys. and to counter enemy trucks. Now it will be suicide for the Ukrs to play by the RUssian mech book, the Russians have more AFVs more artillery and air support than the Ukrs, so how do you fight this strategy. Take a page from the Chadians in their 1980s Toyota war, and the South Africans in the Battle of Cuito Cunavale vs. Angola in 87. Both were faced with tank heavy forces in open terrain. so you deal with these by being more mobile and faster than your opponent. The Russians will probably employ mostly tracked AFVs, in open hard terrain, wheeled vehicles are actually much more faster and maneuverable. Also these vehicles can run rings around Russian tracked AFVs. THe Chadians used old desert maneuver battle tactics and just substituted Toyota trucks to their old horses and camels vs. the tank heavy libyans. THe Ukrainians can use this strategy in the open hard plains of Southern Ukraine. Ukrs do hit and run attacks ont he Russians again like in the north focusing on their logistics, Russian airpower is clumsy, large numbers of mounted Stingers and Star streaks will ward off Russian airpower, for artillery, Ukrs not only can coordinate their regular artillery with their drones but also use drone swarms as mobile smart artillery. Imagine,. lots of switchblade drones launched from these trucks with a 40 mile range loiter, then swarm attack Russian positions, very good vs. logistical vehicles which is your main target and also Russian stationary artillery. These drones not only double as kamikazes but also as recon drones , where you can bracket enemy units with Ukr artillery. civilian trucks are gas economical, much more easy to repair, durable off road very fast and mobile and can even go anti tank minefields. as proved by the Chadian toyota war of the 80s. and Ukr strategies should be hit and run. shoot and scoot, then repeat, the Ukrs have the advantage of range with the Javelin ATGMs which are very deadly vs. Russian AFVs. also fast moving trucks make difficult targets.
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  292. Yah the tensions were bad in the mid 90s across the Taiwan straights, I was living in Guangzhou China in 1994 and it was crazy, starting 6 am , I coulid hear the PLA conducting artilleryi excercises near the city with loud artillery booms from 6 to 8 am every day. for like two weeks. ankd the USA was sailing a air craft carrier near the straights and Taiwan just to warn the Chinese off. This was due to the Taiwan independence party winning the elections adn Chinese fears and threats if Taiwan ever declares itself an independent republic that war will happen. I believe the US assured China that Taiwan will never declare independence and also assured China that if China ever invaded Taiwan that the USA will intervene, While China was blustering, the Chinese were scared to death of the US military. and the Chinese economy was just starting to take off but very dependent on exports to the USA and her allies. Fast forward to 2022, yah China is significantly stronger economically and militarilly also a bit more technologically advanced. the Chinese people are richer now than they have ever been at any point in their history. and this is all due to trade and investment with the 1st world esp. with the USA> but still the Chinese gov. blusters about kicking the ass of the USA militarilly and economically but just like the Russians, the CHinese are deathly afraid of the US military. If the Chinese were to invade Taiwan, this move by the CHinese gov. will be the worst mistake they have ever made in the 21st century. Not only is the CCP inviting military defeat but also economic collapse and social unrest to civil war levels. and if China invades Taiwan, its not only Taiwan who China will be fighting, it would be the USA, Australia, UK, and possibly even Japan and South Korea(if the NOrth Koreans get involved). economically the Chinese are dwarfed by the combined economic power of its enemies. China and NOrth Korea has a total GDP of 14.7 trillion USD, USA Taiwan , Australia, UK , Japan and South Korea have a total GDP 32.3 trillion USD. If there was ever a war , it wouuld primarilly be a naval air war, with the land battles possibly if the Chinese were able to land on Taiwan itself. Not surprised in the opening phases the Chinese would overrun the Islands of Quemoy and Matsu but invading the island itself will really be difficult. US 7th fleet has two aircraft carrier battle groups centered around the USS Ronald Reagan, and USS America but this can be enforced rapidly by the 3rd fleet. , with 4 extra carrier groups the Chinese currently have 2 aircraft carriers Russian cold war designs, and one being currently fitted the Fujian class, which rivals US super carriers. Not to mention the naval commitments of the UK, Australia and possibly Japan and South korea. . I think the Chinese will probably sink and destroy an number of Allied ships and planes but the Chinese navy will be mauled mostly sunk. the Chinese air force mauled. The USA and her allies will impoose not only total sanctions in China but also threaten to do so for anyone else who trades with China, and the Allied navies will blockade Chinese ports interception of Chinese shipping. In short = economic and military catastrophe for China. and can lead to a break up of China , the fall of hte CCP. and civil war.
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  324. as far as I know, the Ukrainians had full intel on Russian dispositions in Kursk, most of the SAMs in Kursk were moved to Crimea, the Kursk area was poorly defended by the Russians, no defense lines , no mobile reserves, very few armoured vehicles and heavy weapons, the Ukrainians fielded a few brigades of their best mech units, veteran battle hardened well motivated Ukrainian troops backed up by NATO tanks and having localized air superiority backed up by good artillery and air support facing a few battalions of poorly motivated Russian conscripts with zero combat experience with few heavy weapons using mainly trucks and jeeps and no artillery and air support. backed up by some FSB, Rosgvardia and overhyped Chechen troops. . Well in the first 24 hours, two battalions of Russian troops(31st/102nd Motor rifle brigade and 17th/488th Motor rifle brigade) all but collapsed, many surrendering or running away. One Russian battalion was completely wiped out at Zeleny Shlyach Kursk when it tried to counterattack. The Ukrainians captured intact a large number of motor vehicles(trucks and jeeps) which is greatly aiding Ukrainian mobility. Also the Ukrainians captured intact logistical depots, Quite amusing are the Russian claims their glide bombs are inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainains but so far the sky is clear of Russian planes, and Russian glide bombs only effective vs. stationary targets, the Ukrainians are quite mobile and impossible to hit. So far the capture of the town of Sudzha severed the rail supply links to the Russian army grouping North of Kharkov and getting worse the town of Koroneva is contested also severing more of the rail line to north of Kharkov.
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  349. Putin's days are not only numbered but so is Russia's , Putin's actions will have great effects on the Russian federation, I forsee after the war is over , post Putin Russia has lost the war, Political economic and social chaos in Russia. Something similiar to 1917 all over again. which will last for a few years. I dont think it will be a civil war, but it will be the breakdown of law and order, in Russia, collapse of the Russian economy, many PMCs and militias popping up all over the place and being the law and order of the area, power plants break down, many areas of Russia without power and internet, criminals , anyone with the gun and can organize become the new rule of law. Millions of Russian refugees will flee to their neighbours many will die when winter sets in and they get stuck at the borders in the dead of winter out int he open. with inadequate winter clothing and heating. Millions of Russians will die from this time of chaos which will last a few years, not only due to murder but also to the breakdwon of transport infrastructure, and the Russian ruble becoming worthless, Russian economy effecitvely becomes a barter economy where USD EUro UK pounds, Chinse Yuan and crypto are accepted and Russian ruble is toilet paper which makes food expensive and valuable , also millions of pensioners will lose their pensions and have to cope with hunger and bad winters. Im not surprised if UN Central Asians, Chinese and NATO troops are forced to deploy to Russia to maintain peace and order . and to stop the massive flow of refugees to their countries.
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  531. The war is definitely a drain of Russia to the tune of 1 billion USD a day. Ukraine is not Chechnya Afghanistan, Syria, where the Russians spent a lot lower to sustain their war efort per day since in thoise wars they were fighting poorly armed insurgents, in Ukraine they are fighting a tough strong conventional army armed with the latest NATO weapons. The war in Ukraine is definitely not sustainable. esp. as the 1st world is putting the screws on the Russian economy and tightening it. The Ukrainian army is getting stronger due to Ukr recruits getting trained properly to do operational offensives and getting better armed with NATO weapons while the Russians are getting weaker with massive equpment manpower losses, economy going down more, along with more sanctions and recruits with lower morale and training. This war is simply not sustainable for Russia the longer the war goes. and Putin and the Russian command simply does not know how to end the war where their current Russian regime will politicallly survive. Moscow can walk away from this war, total withdrawal back to pre war borders in return for a return of status quo relations with the west but this will have massive political implication which can get Putin removed from power permanently. But knowing Putin's pyschology, he is a tough fighter and will fight on until either he dies or he wins or in his mind he won while not achieving his original goal silver and bronze medals stiil OK. The longer the war goes the worst will be the post war effects on Russia. and can throw Russia into civil war. when Putin goes and there is no strong leader to take over or there is political chaos in Moscow as well as economic collapse which is the worst case outcome for Russia in this war.
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  538. Russian human wave tactics is a named misnomer, its not actually human wave as to its human wave like. Russian send in multiple squads in waves, not all in one attack but multiple attacks to draw in Ukrainian fire so the Russians can find out where the Ukrainian positions are. These are the expendable troops, the Convict Z units, the units from the non Russian ethnic republics, not too far behind them are squads of regular Russian troops who are used to corset the expendable frontal troops so they dont retreat(they shoot them) and with these troops are Russian artillery spotters who are used to call in Russian artillery strikes, the Russian army took a page from the successful wagner tactics in Bakhmut, earlier on, the Russians would really use waves of tanks and APCs with no supporting infantry preceded by unspotted massive rolling artillery barrages, Russian combat aircraft would be used to fire their weapons at extreme range at Ukranian positions, the problem was the Russian tanks and APCs would run into lots of Ukrainian mines and would get disabled then when prone get hit by Ukrainian artillery and ATGMs which are a bit more accurate than the Russian ones. So now with the mud season, the Russians are using the WAgner human wave strategies to get thru the mud and minefields, what the Russians will do is send in APCs thru no man's land park it at a distance, unload the expendables, then drive back fast to the Russian lines. these expendable would be told to attack Ukrainian positions, of course these guys would be hit by drones , artillery machine guns etc. run into mines. yes while that strategy was successful in Bakhmut since the Russian infantry can hide in hills forested areas or destroyed buildings, its a bit less successful in Avdiivka, where no man's land is a flat open plain. heavilly sown with mines. with teh Ukrainians in the high elevations with perfect fields of fire. That is why the Russians are not making much progress in Avdiivka are getting more losses than Bakhmut.
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  594. Ukrainians I believe are doing multiple strong probes into Russian controlled territory, with its main strike force in reserve at the back. the Russians did something similiar but failed badly with Bakhmut arguably their only success in the winter offensive however in that case the Ukrainians stlll hold ten percent of the city with Ukrainian flanking attacks reportedly successful. The Russians built a formidable defence during winter with Russian regular infantry as blocking forces in trenches , fortifiucations along with teh lines with massive numbers of mechanized units held far back as a rapid reaction counterattack force backed up by heavy artillery and air power. For the Ukrs its a very hard job to break thru the lines since they dont have air superiority(neither do the Russians) and the Russians are on the defense behind trenches and fortifucations and back up by superior artillery. A Ukrainian advantage for be NATO sattelite intel. I think the Ukrs for now are trying to shape the battlefield, make the Russians stretch resources and manpower. all the while both sides hit each other infrastructure and logistics, the Russians built up strong SAM and ECM defences in occupied Ukraine which makes Ukr HMARS JDAM and even Storm Shadow strikes less effective. if the USA can get around the Russian ECM, this will be a game changer and yah probably open the way to punching a hole and majorly exploiting thru Russian defences as Russian logistics and command and control get disrupted so much that its not able to counteract Ukrainian probes.
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  621. Yes Ive figured this one out since the 90s. Russia may be a massive big power with thousands of tanks millions of men ready to sweep and attack Europe(or through the Fulda Gap west Germany in the cold war) but again we have always overestimated the Russians(and SOviets). Yes they may have a massive well equipped army which looks scary but in reality the Russian army has a lot of doctrinal problems, the command structure is overly centralized which results in poor flexibility of command during combat situations. the army is massively corrupt, the Russian patronage system favors who you know rather than ability so you get officers who are incompetent, discipline is poor, the Russian army is a peacock that likes to strut around likes its the best army in teh world, to hide its bad weaknesses. and it shows in Ukraine. The Russian army is good at fighting short fast wars like vs. Georgia, Syrian and Chechen insurgents(not so good with a determined able enemy like the Chechens as it took two decades and two wars to subjugate them with a population of around 10 million). Now Russia thought it could do a fast war with ukraine. Probably the most populous country that Russia has invaded post cold war. Even though the Russians have 10X the economy, 3-4 X the population, 10X the number of tanks planes, APCs vs. Ukraine and attacked with relative surprise, all these weaknesses in doctrine, leadership , command and control , training, discipline and esp. motivation and morale came to fore, that allowed Ukraineto quickly recover from the shock of invasion take back 50 percent of what it lost in 9 months and stalemate the bigger Russian army and inflict so far 300K to 400K casualties on the Russians in nearly 2 years of war. In nearly two years of war, the Russian army lost 50 percent more men than all the wars fought after WW2 combined. Heck Im not surprised by the time this war ends. it would be twice or three times that.
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  633. you dont mention China which has basically become a sticking point to the USSR in this timeline. enjoying the 2nd largest GDP in the world. with 3X the GDP of the USSR with a larger stronger more advanced army than the USSR with its citizens enjoying a good standard of living much better than citizens of the USSR and a ideological sticking point that communist system can have a capitalist component, this has further sowed unrest in the USSR. Soviet client states overseas beyond the warsaw pact have dwindled to very few with North Korea Cuba Mongolia and Afghanistan being the major ones. Vietnam, Cambodia , Cuba , Nicaragua, and Laos and a bunch of African sates while still having a communist style dictatorial gov. have adopted the Chinese system of communist capitalism in opposition to the USSR. India is still neutral and friendly with the USSR and the USA. Three political economic systems rule the world. USA capitalist democratic system. Chinese capitalist communist system & the USSR stalinist communist system. the USA and China are allies vs. the USSR and whlie both have opposing politicla ideologies they have put aside their difference to oppose the USSR. The USSR by 2022 has become a siege state, becoming a huge North Korea like nation. a shadow of its peak in the 1980s. and unstable putting down unrest all the time. USSR is about 4th largest GDP in the world even outstripped by Japan. Its military while huge has become dillapidated and outdated becoming more of a defensive army. like North Korea in 2022 OTL. (and this timeline too). While it has a huge nuclear stockpile, most of its nukes are old and have not been updated an estimates 75 percent of them wont work. There is no EU in this timeline though there is a European common market. Yugoslavia is still intact and propsperous no civil war occured. Romania is heavilly occupied by Soviet troops after the fall of Caucescu USSR invaded Romania and brutally put down the rebellion and insurgency.
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  719. a operation olympic with 1 million US casualties would have deterred the USA from conducting operation coronet. Olympic would take several more months to finish and the UK ANZAC allied reserves would have been sent to the battle . Im not surprised if the US accepts KMT Chinese troops to fight in Kyushu. Even French Indian & Filipino troops would be sourced. Heck not surprised those units slated for Coronet will be sent it to fight in Kyushu. Operation olympic or the battle of Kyushu would have lasted in 1st or 2nd quarter of 1946 and deemed the most bloodiest battle in USA history. The Japanese army would be wrecked. The USSR on the other hand while successful in conquering Manchuria and the Sakhalin and Kuriles have suffered tremendous casualties and bogged down trying to break into Korea. The Japanese gov seeing while its a defeat as it has lost a tremendous amount of territory sees that the Allies are tired and have suffered tremendous casualties enough to give them pause. The Japanese use this to negotiate thinking they could negotiate a way out keeping the Japanese empire intact. The USA suffering a million casualties in Kyushu decides not to invade the rest of the home islands and settles on blockading japan and now using anti crop chemicals and attacking anyone attempting to fish. sinking fishing boats etc. The Soviets dont have a viable navy in Asia to conduct a invasion of Hokkaido. and Korea is proving difficult to conquer. Meanwhile the Japanese have withdrawn from most of China only occupying the east coast. GB with the help of the USN recapture Hong Kong and Singapore, Malaya , Burma and oust the Japanese from southern China. Japanese surrender unconditionally in August 1947 after mass famines and Soviets conquering Korea and Soviet invading Hokkaido. Japan post war is administered by the USA Kyushu and Honshu, Shikoku , Okinawa, while USSR administers Hokkaido. Honshu and Shikoku are given to local Japanese administration in 1949 US admin of Okinawa , Iwo Jima and Kyushu are not given back until 1992. The Soviets never give back Hokkaido and turn Hokkaido into a Soviet oblast , all Japanese in Hokkaido are forcibly deported to Japan. and Hokkaido is resettled with Soviet citizens. Also large Soviet forces are stationed in Hokkaido. Japan SDF is stronger and bigger during the cold war and better armed. larger number of US troops are stationed in Japan. to confront a possible Soviet invasion, there is national conscription of all Japanese males age 18 and above for compulsory military service similiar to West Germany.
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  778. Russian failures are all across the board here. Putin only wants good news, you give him bad news realistic assessments he will fire you. so his own people gave him the wrong assesments ti keep their jobs. bad corruption for several decades hollowed out the Russian army. Poor centralized doctrine not much different from the Soviets times, poor morale, unmotivated. corrupt poor Russian army leadership across the board. poor pay of Russian soldiers poor equipment , poor logistics. Yep the Russian army really blundered into this one, very simliar to the winter war of 1940. and the Russian army currently is a huge elephnat with arthritis and can only do limited offensives and cannot win the war. so is scaling down its objectives to like only the Donbass, LOL. in fact, I htink the Ukrainians are in a bit better positions the Russians have run out of reserves, they cant call up general mobilization since PUtin might get kicked out and you are only throwing in even more poor quality soldiers into the meatgrinder. The Ukr army stil has tens of thousands of reserves being trained and the Ukr army will soon go into counter offensive, the Russian army is a good target to be hit by a major knockout blow offensive and can collapse a major portion of their army similiar to what happened to the German army in Bagration 44. Im thinking this will happen in the next month or two. However I do think Putin with his army collapsing will probably use massive amounts of chemical weapons to stop the offensive then on to peace talks. and in the peace talks for the Russians the war is lost but Putin still waves around his nukes and chems to try to get what he wants. but his army is gone. Probably suffered a 25 percent loss. I think the peace will end up with the Russians keeping part of the Donbass. a withdrawing from the rest of Ukraine. many of teh sanctions will end. but some will remain. Also Ukraine will not recognize Donbass and Crimea both of which will be annexed by Russia. Tensions still bad between Russia and Ukraine, and NATO gives assurances, that they will intervene if Ukraine gets attacked again. putin still keeps power and tightens up his control over Russia, millions of Russians fleet from the country and refugee to Europe and North America, Austrralia. Many Russian soldiers dont go back to Russia and refugee in Europe.
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  852. well true there was a long stalemate after the Russians retreated from Kiev, the stalemate lasted from April 1 to Sept 1, 2022. In that stalemate, it was a bloody stalemate as the Russians focused on Donbass. Lots died on both sides, but I suspect I bit more were casualties on the Russian side, so much that after the Ukrs captured a significant portion of Eastern Ukraine, the Russian mobilized. That is a sign from the Russians that they have lost a significant part of hte combat power of their forces in Ukraine and need the manpower. In that 5 month stalemate, the Russians were drawing manpower from all departments of the Russian armed force, Sailors , misslemen , supply troops, conscripts, and non front line support troops etc. were turned into regular infantry sent to Ukraine as front line infantry to Donbass, where they were expended in WW1 style frontal attacks. Even category C units from as far as Sakhalin were sent to Ukraine, Arctic troops were sent as regular infantry during summer in the Donbass. Still it was not enough, became casualties. Now the Russians are mobilizing their reserves which is turning out to be a disaster. The troops they have sent into Ukraine the forced mobilized draftess are even worse quality and motivation and less well supplied compared to just a few months ago. Sent into Ukraine as a stop gap. to stop the Ukrainian offensive in the east. So far these new troops managed to slow down the Ukrainians just by their numbers, however from reports a lot of the new draftees have become casualties due to their poor quality even worse quality than LPR and DRN militias.
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  861. for the USSR the war in Afghanistan was just one facet of why the USSR collapsed , its all about the economy , USSR was simply spending above its means , a LOT above its means in order to achieve military parity with the west, yes the cost of the war in Afghanistan was a major drain but even worse drain is to maintain its massive armed forces to confront NATO in Europe, to confront China in the east, to support its proxies like Warsaw pact members, Cuba, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Syria, North korea, Angola, Nicaragua as well as various proxy guerilla and terrorist groups. along with low oil prices as oil prices crashed to as low as 29 USD per barrell in 1986,. as the USSR was dependent on resource exports (oil, gold, gas etc. ) to ironically its customers in Western Europe. and its economy was too centralized and inefficient. The war in Ukraine is much worse than Afghanistan in terms of the loss of resources and manpower. a bit worse economic drain than Afghanistan ever was. and the worst war in terms of manpower, resource and economic drain since WW2. The longer this war goes, the more it will bring down the Russian economy and if the Russian people start feeling economic hardships from this war, esp. when the Russian army gets defeats and not able to achieve much on the field well the more Putin's hold on power gets weaker, and of course the more he gets desperate to hang on to power and the more he will be tempted to use nukes in Ukraine, now the question is, if his own people will obey Putin when he gives the nuke order. my opinion no, I think Putin 's order will not only be disobeyed but the oligarchs, and Russian military and political leaders will use this as a pretext to remove him from power. While they owe Putin their power, they will not be willing to sacrifice their families and wealth to have WW3 with the west.
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  1061. As I said many times before, after this war is over and even with Putin gone and a liberal gov. in power in MOscow Russia will have 10-20 years of political social economic chaos, Putin did so much damage to the Russian economy and prestige in this war that it will take at least a decade for Russia to recover economically and even its prestige is keput for hte forseable future, I see Russia in the next 10 years losing 50 percent of its territory to secession. Those soldiers Russia sent to Ukraine are going to be sent back to their poor areas of Russia where there are no jobs, they are discriminated for losing the war , not being rich not being white, they were abused in the Russian army and not paid at all. So wonder what they will do next, they have military skills, experience in using weapons and they hatge the Moscow gov. maybe time to secede from Moscow and partner up with CHINA. or TURKEY. Russia east of the Urals central Asia the Caucasus will split into several independent republics supported by China and Turkey. and the Moscow gov cant do anything about it. since the Russian army would probably mainly demobilize for lack of funds. Russia after this war will be bankrupt like hell. and China and Turkey will step in supporting secessionist groups in Russia since they want Russia's resources. Turkey will control Russia's caucasus and China will control Siberia, Central Asia and the Far East areas. control them through newly independent puppet states....SCARY HUH???? well you can blame Putin for all that.
    5
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  1097. the Russian air force throughout this war was already much superior to the Ukrainian air force in numbers and aircraft quality superiority, and still not even able to achieve air superiority, and the Ukrainian air force is still alive, since the Ukr air force has not been doing dog fights with Russian planes and Russian planes have not been staying too long in Ukrainian air space due to the very good and dense Ukrainian SAM missle net esp. near the Ukrs big cities. The Russians are forced to fire at long range stand off ranges. So this new SU-34 upgrade will not do anything significant. and mind you the Russian air force has been a no show in the war since the majority of Russian planes have been grounded due to overuse lack of spare parts(corruption sold off in the black market), lack of maintenance personel, and those that stilll fly are dangerous to fly that is why you get a lot of Russian plane crashes. and the Russians can only manufacture some new modern military aircraft due to the sanctions and their industry is not really geared up for this. THe Russian air force before the war was ranked the 2nd strongest air force in the world, but in reality it was geared only for short wars(Georgia), counterinsurgencies(Chechnya, Syria) but fared very poorly in a long conventional war just like the current Ukraine war which has been going on for 1 year and 4 months. Just like the Russian army and navy. same only geared for a short war. and the Russian air force has really been misused. with old Soviet style doctrine, poor leadership and tactics. The future of the Russian air military industry after this war will be bleak, bad advertising already from the war will minimize sales to the third world countries and when Russia goes into civil war, this industry will cease altogether. As Russia implodes after the war, it will be hard to source parts for Russian planes unless its in the black market. This will have a massive adverse effect on many third world air forces like India, African states etc. who have a lot of Russian planes in their stocks,
    5
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  1149. The collapse will get worse as the war goes on will get worse when the war is over when the Russian gov tries to shift the Russian economy from war to civlian, I forsee economic depression , hyperinflation, soldier who are paid say the ruble equivalent to 8K USD now all in rubles will suddenly find they have lost their value by 75 percent. by the time they go home after they demobilize , and faced with very high unemployment, the hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans coming home to high unemployment depressed economy hyperinflation high prices of foodstuffs many will go into crime or get employed by the many PMCs private armies of Russian elites. who pay well and treat their soldiers much better than the Russian army. and with many soldiers getting out of the Russian army to these PMCs or form criminal gangs, then Putin tries to purge Russian elites and shift blame to them for the war failures and to try to ban PMCs, well....that will be a good recipe for a CIVIL WAR. I think this will occur within 10 years of the end of the Russian Ukraine war. and in the meantime, Ukraine will be rebuilding and rearming and reforming its economy , gov and esp. its mlitary for round 2 reform and rebuild along NATO lines. So imagine in ten years after the war is over, Russia on the verge or going into full blown civil war, with a now strengthened , strong and stable Ukrainian gov economy and military very vengeful and looking to take back its lost territory looking to take advantage of a Russian civil war. (not surprised in the meantime, the Ukrainians fund anti Putin and secessionist groups in Russia). ....the coming Russian civil war will be very bloody and confusing as the Syrian civil war with many factions and possibly even foreign intervention. Just like the 1917 to 1922 one=.
    4
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  1153. well ive lived in Vancouver BC Canada since 1992 and ive seen several PMs come and go and Ive always voted conservative. However Trudeau was an OK PM , yah he sucked at the end , but hey most Canadian PMs do at their expiry dates. so having said that here are my views on Canadian PMs that I have experienced: EXCELLENT Bryan Mulrooney: While I started work in Canada in 1992, at the tail end of Mulrooney's reign yah Canada and BC was in recession at the time, but the Canadian economy boomed under him, and before I settled in Canada I experienced the boom year having visited the Vancouver Expo back in 86 yah was just a tourist of Canada since 81 but I visited the country multiple times and I felt he did a good job with Canada despite all the haters. Stephen Harper: Love this guy, yah lots of haters on him but Canadian economy boomed under him esp. Western Canada. boom times in Vancouver under him GOOD Justin Trudeau: OK his last few years sucked bad but you know what he was also good for Canada , Canadian economy was booming pre covid. and he did a good job on handling the covid crisis in Canada, well in BC it was good, Quebecers hate his guts since a lot of em died during covid but sorry remember to obey safe distancing etc. He is much criticized on his immigration policies but you know what we actually needed those policies during the boom years before covid and during covid since local Canadians would not take the jobs those immigrants took and during covid many did not work stayed home took welfare. Now since there is high unemployment they are being forced out with the stricter student working hour laws. AVERAGE Paul Martin: not much happened but at least he did not mess up Kim Campbell: really did not do anything , she only lasted a few months as PM in the mid 90s. interim PM no mess ups. BLEHHHH . Jean Chretien: This guy sucked balls hard, yah the Quebecers and the east loved this clown but yah we in the west have a low opinion on him , the east got the brunt of the boom while western Canada was in recession esp. BC, probably the worst Canada PM ever.
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  1207. The Russians are fighting in different styles. : At Bakhmut the Russians are using WW1 style German Strosstruppen Storm troops tactics, using Russian mobiks formed into assault groups attacking in small groups heavilly armed with RPO Schmels , RPGs, Kord machineguns AGS-17 grenade launchers attacking Ukrainians fortifications and trenches. heavilly supported by artillery TOS fuel air missles, and lots of air strikes from SU-25 and SU-35s along with a few tanks and IFVs. Russians are not using much drones due to the weather but recon is done by Wagner convict troops recon in force, send them to scout out Ukrainian positions then when identified , Russian army uses assault groups formed from Mobiks supported by Spetsnaz Chechens, and VDV who are used to exploit gaps in Ukr defenses. this is successful though costly due to the wooded and hilly terrain of the bakhmut area. along with strong Ukr fortifications and trenches. Meanwhile in Vulhedar the Russians cannot use the same tactics they are using in Bakhmut since the terrain is clear and flat. and the Ukrainians hold the high ground. if the Russians used strosstruppen infantry tactics at Vulhedar they would be massacred. So the Russians are trying to blundgeon the Ukrs defenses to death with constant tank APC heavy attacks through one road(since the area is heavilly mined) supported by heavy artillery and air support. Vulhedar is going to be a tougher nut to crack than Bakhmut. Kremina similiar to Vulhedar. and the Ukrainians keep on replacing the mines using mine laying artillery and missle rounds supplied by NATO.
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  1251. a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps Russian Order of battle: 2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X. Ukrainian Order of battle: 13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X. aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk. Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster. also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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  1263. Russia is also suffering this kind of problem probably to a larger degree with private individuals forming their own PMCs, militias, paramilitary organizations to fight in Ukraine or due to local security. Ukraine I think this will not really be a problem post war, except for some instances that hte post war Ukr gov may have to suppress, arrest and confiscate their weapons. or some of these guys might even run for gov. in Ukraine. Ive seen this happen in places like the countries of former Yugoslavia, Liberia, DRC etc. where militias were raised due to teh war and these militias either ended up as criminal gangs or as political parties. or disbanded peacefully. However its predicated that the succeeding gov. after the civil war is stable . However if its not stable or there is no succession well, you end up like Somalia where they had like an ongoing civil war since 1991. Russia post war will be unstable. politically and economically. and like Barre in Somalia who was a strong leader with no strong leader succeeding him, well after Putin I dont see any strong leader to succeed him with his kind of caliber, so it happens in the backdrop of unrest due to defeat in Ukraine, Putin gone, successor factions having their own miliias, private armies heavilly armed, fighting each other , as Igor Girkin said, this has happened before in Russian histor during the civil war 100 years ago, where you had many militias, were formed to do local law and order as the Russian central gov collapsed , the militias became gangs that fought each other, same thing will happen to Russia after this war is over. Russia will go into civil war perhaps lasting a decade. Russia will be a Geopolitical heacache for its neighbours and the west. a massive Somalia , a great game between USA and CHina . Russia will be similiar to China in the 1920s, no central gov. with the country ruled by warlords.
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  1264. I think WW3 will be a relatively short affair when compared to WW1, 2, Korean war, I think it will be over in 1-2 years. My view is USA/NATO/ANZAC/Ukraine/Taiwan/South korea/Japan vs. China/Russia/North Korea. the rest will be neutral or cheering for one side or another from the bleachers but not militarilly intervenilng. Countires like Singapore, Philippines will probably not send in military forces but will have their territory hosting Allied military units. and basing rights. I think no nukes will be used. with land war being limited to Ukraine border areas between NATO and Russia, with naval actions in the Atlantic, med, caspian and black seas., in the Europe and in Asia, the South China sea, sea of Japan, the Taiwan straights , the pacific and Taiwan itself. the war in Europe will be mainly a ground war and the war in Asia will be mainly a naval air war. and I dont think it will be the bloodiest war in history , in fact WW3 will be the least bloodiest war by orders of magnitude when compared to WW1 and 2 but will still be the bloddiest war in the 21st century by far if you fold in the Ukraine war whcih has been going on since 2014. (just like the Second Sino Japanese war was going on in 1937 and was folded into WW2 starting 1941. I think NATO and its allies will win this one but will suffer heavy losses but nothing compared to the losses of the Sino-Russian alliance which will lose badly. The Allies I think dont press the Alliance too much on war reparations but the Russian and Chinese leadership undergo changes will the leaders being kicked out of pwoer and replaced with moderates. who blame their predecessors for their problems and try to resume business as usual relationships with the west. However the economies and political pwoer structures of China and Russia have been greatly affected badly. which greatly affects their social stability. the military, prestige and economic losses of China and Russia causes massive unrest. even when sanctions are dropped and financial aid is resumed. Russia loses about 25 percent of its territory to secession which the Moscow gov does not do anything about. with notable secessions being Chechnya which becomes an independent nation. Then things stabilize with what is left of Russia becoming a more or less democratic pro West nation as investments eventually after a decade flow back normally into Russia. China on the other hand , the CCP hold on power weakens and the PLA imposes martial law in hte face of massive unrest. a hundred thousand or so are killed in nationwide crackdowns on unrest. not seen since the cultural revolution. Due to the war , instability and the crackdows, investmests mostly dont go back to China despite Chinese are trying to advertise business as usual Western investments go to India and SOuth East Asia instead making Chinese economic recovery painfully slow. China isolates itself from the world. massive amounts of Chinese refugees flee from China as the bamboo curtain falls. (includes Hong Kong and Macau). The CCP and PLA try to do a internal capitalist system isolated to China and North Korea. with authoritairian CCP party control seperate from the world economic system. There is a new cold war between USA and China with two seperate world and political economic systems not seen since the cold war.
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  1279. The Ukraine war can become like the Iran-Iraq war and last for several years. The intial failure of the Russian blitzkrieg then becomes a attritional war lasting for years until one side's economy cant take it anymore and that side declares a ceasefire. then armistice. In the iran iraq war, Iraq invaded iran with the goal of conquering Iran and overthrowing the Islamic shia revolutionaries, the initial invasion failed and then the Iranians kicked them out of Iran then made it their goal to conquer Iraq and kick out Saddam. Massive western support for Iraq massive sanctions on Iran along with high oil prices from 1980 to 1985 and a collapse of hte oil prices in 1986 resulted in the collapse of hte Iranian economy which made the Iranians do desperate actions like attacking shipping in the persian gulf in order to raise the price of oil and more desperate offensives on the Iraqis to break the Iraqis on the battlefield but the West and esp. the USA , the saudis and to a lesser extent the Soviets supported the Iraqis vboth miliarilly and financially , war ended in 1988 with a Marginal Iraqi victory. with iran declaring an armistice. With the Ukraine war, I think the war had a initail blitzkrieg invasion phase from Feb 24 to April 7, 2022 ended in a Russian failure to capture Kiev and Kharkov and decapitate the Ukrainian gov. From April 7 to present the war is in its attritional phase with the Russian goals much downgraded to taking the Donbass and possibly taking the entire Ukrainian south and linking with Transnistria. I predict a bunch of events will end the ukraine war starting with collapse of oil prices, increasing sanctions on Russia with most of hte EU nations decoupling buying their energy sources from Russia, increasing military aid to Ukraine. Global recession, this makes the Russians desperate they will probalby mobilize in 2023 or 2024 and try to use the full might of the Russian army to win in ukraine by forcing the Kiev gov. to an armistice. leaving the Russian army in full control of its winnings in Ukraine. This fails bloodily and induce unrest, uprisings revolution as the Russian public is greatliy pissed off by food shortages due to rising prices of food massive inflations sanctions forcing the Russian gov. to do martial law crackdows which leads to riot and revolt. Russian revolution 2.0 happens overthrowing Putin. and his inner circle. New Russian gov. declares an armistice and withdrawal of all Russain forces in Ukraine, I predict this will happen in 2024 .
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  1406. the Russian tactics used in Vulhedar and Bakhmut are very different. Bakhmut has a very wooded hilly terrain, so the Russians use German 1918 storm trooper tactics with constant attacks by small groups of Russian troops with the recon in force attacks done by Wagner convicts to find Ukrainian positions then it gets plastered by artillery and air strikes then the Wagner VDV Spetsnaz storm troops heavilly armed with RPO schmel RPGs, Kord Machineguns, AGS-17 auto grenade launchers attack the spotted positions with some tank and IFV fire support. At Bakhmut its not totally wagner there is a significant presence of VDV and Spetsnaz along with regular Russian army who do the air and artillery support. However at Vulhedar the terrain is flat wide open fields which are heavilly mined with one main road and the Ukrainians holding the high ground in fortified positions. This is a Russian army operation with the Russians using their usual mechanized frontal attacks , they pound the Ukrs positions with aritllery and TOS fuel air missles then attack , with small groups of Russian tanks and APCs manned by poor morale poorly trained Ethnic Russian regular troops(Buryats, Tatars have been spotted) along with force conscripted sailors manning Naval infantry units. The Russians at Vulhedar are trying to blundgeon their way thru strong Ukrainian defenses. hence around 150 Russian vehicles are kaput not even close to the Vulhedar defenses. The Russians mind sweep the area, then the Ukrainians resow the fields and roads with artillery launched mnes, Russians attack get blown up and bog down in mines and previous vehicles wreckages then get targetted by Ukrainain artillery then they run away then they do it again. The Russians lost 150 tanks and APCs and its not even a tank battle. If the Russians try to use Bakhmut tactics at Vulhedar the Russians will get massacred. even more.
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  1440. So what I see, right now, is Ukraine knows about Putin's plans and will fight this war smartly to outmaneuver the Russians on the battlefield with massive NATO logistical support and keep on defeating the Russians while trying to minimize its casuatlies not engaging the Russians in drawn out battles of attirtion where Russia's manpower will factor in greatly. Ukrs tacatics, outmaneuver the Russians on the battlefield, attack and exploit Russian weakpoints along the battle lines. hit Russian logistics hard. cut off Russian units from supply then make them break up and run. with the good caveat the Russians dont withdraw in order and leave lots of equipment and vehicles. This also produces more effect on Russian public support for Putin. Erodes it. as the Ukrs keep on inflictinig major losses ont he Russian army. and it causes Putin to keep on mobilizing thus further eroding domestic support for Putin. The Russians now are just trying to stop the Ukrs, also doing some attacks to try to distract the Ukrainians, and doing the Belarus gambit. I personally dont think the Russians will be attacking again from Belarus. but in the event the Ukrainians have been inflited major losses on the battlefield. then those Russian Belarus troops may attack Ukraine. focusing on Western Ukraine to cut off supply lines from NATO. The Belarus threat is there to keep Ukraine from committing more troops to the East and South. and keep a good part of its army north to guard from this threat. Both sides are preparing for winter and I think the Russians are trying to prepare to defend its winnings in Ukraien, an din the lowdown of from Dec 1 2022 to March 1, 2022. the Russians hope their draftees will be experienced and trained enough to withsrand more Ukr offensives and go on a major spring offensive. I think Putin really belives that one. Also Putin is in a race for time in Urkaine, a delicate balancing act, with 1. sanctions eroding his economy and its major effects felt possibly in 2023 to 2024 fruther eroding his domestic support. 2. Europeans resolve during the winter as well as facing a global recession in 2023. 3. USA mid term and presidential elections in late 2022 and in late 2024 respectively Putin hopes a republican win will completeliy cut or at least signficantly downgrade USA support for Ukraine to force the Ukrainians to a negotiated peace. with Putin holding on to a significant poriton of Ukraine so he can take it back to his own people and claim a victory to try to insure his political survival. in his mind of course. The longer this war goes this way, the more Putin'd domestic support and economy erodes.
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  1504. I personally think the Ukrainians can still win the battle of the Donbass, and yes I highly agree with you on the battle of Budapest similiarity. Hopefully the Ukrainians do a very successful operation Konrad and smack the Russians hard. the battle of the Donbass will enter a critical phase next month as the ground hardens and the weather gets clearer. I think the Russians will gain a lot of ground in the next few weeks in the area, On the side they are going to try to take Mikolayiv near Odessa. Also expect the Russians to make another push to Kharkov. and yah in the donbass I expect the Russians to pocket and cauldron the Ukrainians. However the Russians will incur a LOT of casualties, esp. in their elite units which are being used as shock troops. and the Ukrainians are going to be using their arty , drones and ATGMs a LOT. Hitting supply lines. HOwever I think in the aftermath, the Russians will be exhausted. ripe for the Ukr counteroffensive. Heck The Russians may actually capture all of Donbass, threaten Kharkov, and isolate even Odessa and do a land bridge to Transnistria by say mid to late summer. but the Russians will have incurred a LOT of losses. and the Ukrs will hit them hard in a counteroffensive. Possibly even invade Transnistria. This just extends the war as the Ukrainians will not give up and will fight to victory. probably even illicit more support from NATO. like western tanks and jets being supplied to Ukraine. Russia may take a lot of Ukr territory but cant hold it. and its economy longer the war goes cannot support it. and the Ukrainians get a lot of financial economic support from the USA, EU and their allies. and the Chinese are getting wary of supporting Russia. The Chinese are probably just giving the Russians enough to keep them upright, but the Chinese will backstab the Russians later when they lose the war and Putin is gone. My view of the war's conclusion is that the war will most likely extend into next year. will be after Putin dies , there is a power struggle, or even a power struggle to remove his successor. which in the background, teh war is really not going well, and the Russians actually lost significant ground, suffered a horrendous defeat, and its clear the Russians cannot win the war, their economy in collapse, a lot more dissent from the Russian public and morale of the Russians soldiers in the field even lower. So many AFVs have been destroyed they are probalby scraping the bottom of the barrell in equipment and vehicles. I think the war will end when Russian gov the new one calls it quits and abandons their troops in Ukraine. They will say the Russian gov is bankrupt and we dont have money to properly evacuate Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian troops will be forced to walk back hitchike or even surrender to the Ukrainians , yep a uncontrolled Russian army with no authority will be chaotic, mass looting not seen the end of WW2 in the eastern front Germany. Mass surrenders not seen since WW2. Ukrainians will be forced to do an offensive to control areas to curtail Russian looting rape rioting etc. I expect large scale war crimes trial on the scale of WW2 on captured Russian troops for atrocities. While Ukraine is devastaated, there will be a massive marshall plan to fix ukraine Ukraine will boom in the reconstruction. Lots of Russian men equipment and vehicles will be left in Ukraine not surprised if arms dealers go to ukraine to buy captured Russian equipment, for Russia it will be worse. The Russia will start to resemble like Venezuela but in disorder. unrest. Weak central authority, unrest rebellion east of the Urals. and Caucasus. high crime rates, collapsed economy. political chaos. very weak military and police forces . Arms dealers will go to Russia to buy their military equipment at bottom of the barrell fire sale rates, since the Russian gov. will need a LOT of money to recover. China will exploit this and support the secessionists east of the Urals. and nationalist pro Putin elements to weaken the now Pro Western Moscow gov. with a military so weak it will not be able to prevent the secession of various Russian republics starting with Chechnya. I think Post war, with a Russia undergoing political and economic upheavals and balkanizing, it will not be seen as a threat anymore but as a excellent economic resources exploitation opportunity by various foreign powers esp. the USA and most importantly China. who will support the createion of various indpependent former Puppet states in Siberia and the Far East and the Caucasus. Russia will be a total shit show. Like a huge version of Libya.
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  1528. well Bakhmut has served its purpose as a meatgrinder for the Russians , a good distraction for the Russians to attack on plus lose a LOT of men, Bathmat has been gong on for 8 months and 50K Russian casualties later. Sieverdonetsk last year 2022 also served the same purpose however that lasted 4 months and 15K Russian casualties. then Ukrs launched their offensive and recovered massive amounts of territories. At Bakhmut its estimated that the Russians are concentrating most of their tactical aviation as well as artillery , an all out Russian attack. involving thousands of Tube and rocket artillery, hundreds of T0s-1s thermobarics, Spray and Pray unguided Rocket attacks by day by SU-25s, and SU-35s using guided glide bombs at night. Sustained round the clock bombardment. Of couse tjhe Ukrs are being pushed back but are still fighting. But the Garasimov is said to want to conquer Bakhmut by May 9, 2023 celebrations as a gift to Putin. but I think the Ukrs have a surprise for the Russians to spoil the may 9 , 2023 celebrations. at Red Square, WHile Bakhmut may be on its last legs, its served its purpose , however back last year the loss of Sieverdonetsk was much ballyhooed by the Russians well now that Russian victory is much forgotten. the Russian concentration of artillery at Bakhmut was done at the expense of other fronts. which the Ukrainians will be well taking advantage of. and the Ukrs are hitting Russian logistics and ammo dumps behind enemy lines all the time. its funny that the artillery shipped tot he Russians by the Iranians reported to be 300K artillery shells was mostly expended at Bakhmut and is not enough to solve Russia's artillery shortage. It will be quite hilarious , if the Russians manage to capture Bakhmut but later have to withdraw and abandon it. in order to stop major Ukrs offensives in other fronts.That would be a very funny may 9 2023 gift to Putin, Im not surprised Putin may well cancel the May 9 2023 celebrations hahah
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  1529. Yah I remember those times in the 70s and 80s when the oil prices were high, the USSR was really building up its military and really threatening the USA and NATO. The Soviet army was much feared and there were war scares in the early to mid 80s with tense moments beetween NATO and the warsaw pact. However when oil prices collapsed in 1986, the Soviets were amping up their confrontation with the west to raise the oil prices, also the collapse in oil prices resulted in the end to the iran-Iraq war due to both sides fuelling their war with oil sales. The Iranians started doing attacks on Oil tankers in the Persian gulf stating they were doing it to cut off oil exports from Iraq but in truth the Iranians wanted high oil prices to fund its war, and was causing a crisis to raise oil prices , however it failed and oil prices still dropped Iran called it quits saying possible US entry into the war and high casualties and poor battlefield performance and growing Iraqi strength made it quit the war. The collapse in oil prices also led to the collapse of the Soviet economy. made worse by its really bad economic mismanagement, really bad corruption, poor command Soviet economy, very high military spending, and massive economic assistanace to its allies for little economic benefit in return. Yep even back then the Soviet economy was heavilly dependent on oil natural gas and other resource exports(even more so back then than now). , the Soviets really did not have a domestic market and did not export on a big scale its finished products to the west. in fact, its weapons manufactured on a massive scale back in the cold war, did not really make the Soviets money as they were given to allied nations rather than sold to them. Iranians in the 80s even worse they were almost totally dependent on oil exports to fund its war with Iraq. The Iraqis had USA and Saudi economic support to prop up its economy.
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  1581. Not surprsied The Ukrs did a masterful job defending Bakhmut and inflicting Massive losses on the Russians, if the Russians thought this woulid be a meatgrinder the jokes are on them. The battle of Bakhmut has been going on since August 1 2022, yep, it took 6 months for the Russians to take a small town, this is not even a city. with a pre war population of 2K to 5K people. its a small town. In my estimation Russians lost around 50K casualties(of that 20K dead) at Bakhmut alone Ukrainians lost like 10K(of that 1K dead) casualties. Yes Bakhmut has a good position as a high elevated area. but the Ukrainians still have extensive lines of trenches and fortifications beyond Bakhmut. In fact according to Prigo the psycho bald leader of Wagner, he thinks it will take at least 1 year to conquer all of the Donbass and reacah the Dnipro....LOL> Now let us compare the Battle of Bakhmut to last year';s simliar battle in the Donbas called the battle of Sieverdonetsk in mid 2022, taht one lasted about a month and a half the Russians captured it with about 20K casualties. inflicting probably 10K Ukr casualties. and mid 2022 the Ukrainian army was a bit weaker than it is now, in Feb 2023. The Ukr army in mid 2022 was int he middle of reorganizing and rearming itself to a NATO standard military. Now in Feb 2023 I think the Ukrainian army is basically a NATO standard army using the NATO combat doctrine while still using mainly Russian Soviet weaponry has a lot of NATO weapons. and much more experienced than they were mid 2022. The Russian army on the other hand has become weaker than they were than mid 2022. While retaining their Soviet style centralized combat doctrine have now switched from a tank heavy offensive force to a infantry heavy offensive force using WW1 style infantry tacitcs. backed up witih heavy artillery support. While the Russian army is still formidable and stronger than the Ukrainian army with more fire power, I estimate the Russian army is 50 percent weaker than they were a year ago. Having lost 200K Casualites( I think 250K casualties) and several thousands of vehicles. and a few hundred aircraft. now having to buy artillery ammo from her allies due to very bad artillery wastage. So compare Battle of Sieverdonetsk(1 1/2 months for the Russians to win 20K casualties mid 2022), Battle of Bakhmut(6 months for the Russian to win, 50K casualties mid 2022 to early 2023). Looking at the statistics looks like the Russians will have to mobilize at least 5 million men to take all of the Donbass. Since I think the Russians will have to pay at least 1 million casualties just trying to take all of the Donbass and that is counting the Ukrainians will probably keep on counterattacking as they get stronger.
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  1647. Russia currently is in a similar situation to the Russian empire before the 1917 Russian civil war. 40 percent of its budget is now geared to military spending. and its shifting 6 percent and more of its economy to war. its in a bloody stalemate not winning in Ukraine. suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses., more repression of free speech from the state. Rising food prices. It will get worse in the next few years culminating in Russia becoming more repressive suffering from venezuela style hyperinflation, suffering from battlefield defeats and even more significant casualties. This will trigger widespread protests in Russian cities , and lead to more Russian gov repression, and the match that causes the fire will be simliar to the start of the Russian civil war in 1917, Russian security forces massacre Russian civilian protesters which leads to a general mutiny in the Russian army, As the Russian gov collapses so does the collapse of the command and control of the Russian army in Ukraine, which is taken advantage of by the Ukrainian army who launches major offensives which collapses the Russian army in Ukraine and Ukraine regains a lot of its lost territory in the offensives. The end of the Ukraine war ends not with a negotiation but with the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing in mass surrenders and desertions with their officers abandoning their troops just like in the end of the 1st Chechen war. There is no Russian gov to negotiate with . The upcoming Russian civil war which I think starts in 2027(110 years from the start of the last one) wil be very bloody. and also have a lot of factions. I think the west and China will meddle in the war and support their proxies. However just line in the 1917 to 1922 civil war which had the Reds(communists) vs. the whites(anti communists), this civil war it will be Freedom/Liberty and the letter L who are supported by the west and Ukraine vs. the Nationalists/Patriots and the letter Z supported by China. With the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, the Russians left massive amounts of weapons and military equipment , many of which will be given to the Russian Freedom Legion which I think will be massively expanded into a real army(from 2 current battalions as of April 2024). with recruits from the surrendered Russian soldiers in Ukraine and volunteers from Russia itself along with volunteers from Ukraine and other countries. and aided by support from the west. The other side is like the whites during the 1917 Russian civil war, factionalized with an assortment of Russian nationalist movements and regional militias but with the uniting goal of being opposed to liberal democratic Russia that is influenced by the west. China supports it with funds and weapons. The Freedom of Russia army is more coordinated and united with support from the west plus a head start in former Russian army weapons and equipment and large appeal from the Russian people. The Patriots also have a significant influence from the Russian people and initially have a bit larger recruit base but is poorly coordinated but support heavilly by China, Iran, North Korea etc. The Russian civil war is bloody and also affects its neighbours as millions of Russian refugees cross into their countries with teh largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Also well armed Russian bandits raid into their neighbours and also become pirates, the Russian navy has practically devolved into a Pirate navy hijacking shipping in the black caspain and Baltic seas .
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  1713. well overall the Ukrs have done very well vs. the supposedly 2nd strongest military power on earth Russia, Ukraine has retaken 50 percent of what they lost, yah Russia still holds around 20 percent of Ukraine territory but it used to be 40 percent. until the successful Ukr Kiev, kherson and Kharkov offensives. Yes the Russians can field massive amounts of men and equipment but the problem is the horrible state of Russian logistics, Russians are reliant on rail transport with truck disembarking from the rail heads to support units in the field, the Ukrs focused hitting Russian logistics with missles and JDAMs. hitting rail heads, trains, ammo dumps command and control centers(Russian command and control is centralized). Basically yes, the Russians have a lot of manpower and military equipment and ammo but the Russian ability to bring them to the battlefield, shift them to critical points is horrible due to Ukr focus on hitting Russian logistics. and command and control, that is why the Russians are not able to sustain big offensives of the 50K variety and have to do smaller shorter offensives. When the Russians try to do big offensives it simply falls apart quickly due to supply shortages like what happened recently in the Kharkov oblast at Kupiansk Svatove, Russians attacked with 100K men 900 tanks 500 artillery pieces backed up by heavy air support , in one week vs. light Ukainian defense they were able to tear a 8 KM hole in the Ukr lines, however due to the Ukrs hitting Russian logistics and the fact the area of attack wsa far from their rail heds and there ar few good roads in the area for their trucks and the fact the open fields which was the mian terrain wer heavlly mined by the Ukrs, and the fact the Ukrs were hitting Russian logistics heavilly , means the Russians were not able to exploit the 8 KM hole they made and the Ukrs not only quickly plugged the hole with reinforcements but also is closing the hole and pushing the Russians back in counterattacks. due to bad Russian supply shortages.
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  1852. even if war ends with a peace deal which leaves 20 percent of Ukraine in Russian hands. You will have an angry vengeful Ukraine that is rebuilding and rearming for another future war. and Russia will be in trouble political , economically socially with a economy dangerously in war mode and depressed with hyperinflation, socially in trouble as hundreds of thousands of crazy war veterans coming back to a depressed economy in hyperinflation, will make the 90s Russian crime wave look like kindergarden. and most foreign investors wont be coming back to Russia, and while all the sanctions will be lifted the europeans their best customers wont really be buying from the Russians anymore...all these economic factors will lead to heavy disruption of Russian efforts to recover from the war and rebuiild their military. and also politically, making war with their neighbors , Ukraine or NATO will really be the furthest thing from Putin's mind, he just escaped a existential threat that was the war, and I dont think he will have the stomach to start another major war. esp. with NATO, so he will be focused post war on rebuilding his economy and military and esp. securing his regime. and i think Russia will be politically unstable after the war, since the Russians wont feel they won the war, yah sure they took 20 percent of ukraine which are mostly ruins and will take hundreds of billions of USD to rebuild and demine(millions of landmines in those territories they conquered). at the cost of like 1 million casualties. their military stocks carefully stockpiled for several decades now mostly depleted and Russian military prestige embarassed and down the shitter. Russian elites will probably be sharpening their knives for Putin after the war. and Putin cant just purge them since they have their own PMCs or private armies. and post war with the Russian army discredited probably the army gets a massive wave of quits and these soldiers join the oligarchi PMCs for better pay and working conditions. Yep Russia may win quote on quote when I say win the war where the Putin regime does not collapse. but later Putin regime will probably collapse in civil war. Possibly due to a failing Russian economy in hyperinflation, social unrest , and Putin dong purges to secure his power. So while Russia in civil war, you have a resurgent very angry and vengefuli Ukraine now rearmed and stable in the position to retake its lost territories.
    3
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  1885. In the negotiations , PUtin will threaten to use more chems and maybe even nukes to stop more Ukrainian offensives. They'll claim they used chems since Ukrainians have just invaded Russian territory. or some BS like that.k Putin by this time knows his army is kaput. so wants a face saving reason for peace. with great bitterness. the Ukrs agree to part with the eastern part of the donbass but again Ukraine does not recognize this and Crimea's annexation. Ukraine will still not be part of the EU and NATO however very close cooperation with them. Massive marshal plan trillion dollars at least to repair Ukraine. For Russia, lifting of many sanctions, some still in place due to Russia's occupation of Crimea and East DOnbass. While its back to business as usual, Russia's economy has been badly hurt by the war and sanctions. war scared off the investors. Putin tightens his hold on Russia, scaring millions to leave the country. Europeans really offended by the large scale use of chems by the Russians which not only kills Ukr soldiers but also lots of civilians. boycotts of Russian products worldwide esp. in the 1st world continues. Economic chaos in Russia. China steps in besides lending money to Russia to keep the the Russian economy alive, China starts also getting Russian resources are bargain prices. China also buys a lot of Russian weapon systems , submarines missles etc. However Putin's leadership stops the Chinese from buying off Russian companies. Putin tries to reform the Russian army downsizes it massively tries to make it more professional but this is slow going since Russia has other more pressing matters to attend to. The Russian army has stopped becoming a strong monolithic army to a territorial defense force. Putin probably dies in the next five to ten years. Reputation broken, legacy kaput , Russia is in sort of political chaos first free elections in Russia. Next Russian leadership is more acceptable to the west. However Russian economy while stabilized is still in bad shape, just like the 90s. and with Putin gone. China steps in more, buys up more Russian corporations, extends her influence into Central Asia Caucasus for their very important resources. The war in Ukraine has really been beneficial to China having gotten CHina access to cheap resources , upgraded its weapons tech, not surpirsed CHina hires out Russian scientists to upgrade its weapons systems for a future showdown with the USA. Russia has effectively become a economic vassal to China. Belarus , LUkashenko gone, democratic Belarus gov. which similiar to Ukraine goes heavilly to the west, lots of USA , 1st world investments that fled Russia go into Ukraine and Belarus. Im not surprised after Putin is gone, wih the price of massive economic aid and lifting of the rest of the sanctions, , Russia can agree to have Ukraine and Belarus join the EU but not NATO, probably even Moldova. Giving back Crimea and Donbass are very dicey political topics the Russians will not give those up. Due to the war Russia has lost prestige, and has become a scorned laughingstock. Its oligrachs have also lost a lot since the west sequestered confiscated a lot of their assets due to the massive use of Chemical weapons by the Russians.
    3
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  1949. Without a united Germany to threaten the Russians, the Russians bring in their European armies to the far east to teach the upstart Japanese a lesson. The Russo-Japanese war of this timeline extends a few more years and ends in a Russian victory in the far east evicting the Japanese from mainland Asia. The Japanese while winning at sea , perceive this as a defeat which traumatizes the Japanese leadership . Japan becomes closer to USA and Great Britain. Later Russians declare war on Austro Hungary when the Austro Hungarians invade Serbia after Archduke Ferdinand is killed in Bosnia by a Serb nationalist. After a year of war and a British French sponsored armistice , the Russians have te upper hand in negotiations as the Russian army manages to defeat the Austro Hungarians in a series of battles. This causes political instability in Austro Hungary which the army had to put down numerous rebellions. The Russians due to perceived victories in the Balkans and in the Far east are getting cocky and the Russians are getting belligerent. Focusing on the confederation of German states. War between Russia vs. the German confederation over alleged German/Prussian meddling in Russian poland, finland and the Batlic states is cause for war. The war is a bloody stalemate sees the use of Trench warfare, and even armoured warfare in primitive tanks and armoured cars being used by both sides and mass use of airpower. The Russians have the massive numbers while the Germans have the troop quality and leadership. however the Germans do not have the numbers to push into Russia and political bickering between member states.
    2
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  1954. as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change. I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine. In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc. The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse. Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline. Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse. Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956. Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks. All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them. Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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  2087. my view the longer the war goes the more destroyed the Russian economy is, yes the Russian economy is currently experiencing growth but its artificial gov spending for the war economy to support the war in Ukraine. The longer the war goes, more money for Russian infrastructure, more of the civlian economy will be converted to manufacture of military supplies and equipment to support the war in Ukraine. Supposedly a whopping 40 percent of the current Russian budget 2024 is being spent on the war on Ukraine. This is a long term disaster. and the Russian minister of economy has already stated that the Russian economy cannot handle this one indefinitely , there will be a turning point in the Russian economy starting with hyperinflation, rising prices of essentials such as food , gasoline etc. when the Russian economy starts collapsing. This will cause resentment in Russia towards the Russian gov, of course this will lead to more unrest and more Gov crackdowns on dissent. also add to that discontent in the Russian military on how the war is being run. esp. when Russia after a biden win this year 2024, and facing a tank and APC shortage due to their cold war stocks running out by late 2025 and their tank and APC production and refurbishments cannot keep up with losses on the battlefield coupled with Ukrainian major victories in the front. Made worse by incompetent corrupt uncaring and rigid Russian military and political leadership. Prigozhin's uprising in 2023 was only the first and he did it to address the incompetencies of Russian military command in Ukraine(among other things). I think a much bigger uprising will occur in the Russian military coupled with Russian civlian uprisings triggering a collapse of the Russian economy and then the Russian gov. and then collapse in the Russian military command. Like a domino this will be the start of the Russian revolution 2.0 then civil war. or Time of troubles 2.0(or 3.0 whichever you prefer). This will be much worse than the 90s which the Russian like to hanker back on. The Russians will wish the 90s was back to what is coming for Russia. The Russian civil war that is coming will be even more bloodier than the Ukraine war, it will be a massive geopolitical event like the 1917 to 1922 civil war and will probably draw international intervention( not surprised if UN peacekeeping troops are deployed in Russia), millions of Russian refugees and Russian dead. and Russia breaking up. It will be a geopolitical great game between USA and China as they support their proxies. Russia will become the largest failed state in the world. A massive version of Syria/Somalia. The new Russia that will come out of the mess will probably be significantly smaller with new nations being born. I posit the largest of these will be the Russian federation with Moscow as its capital will one day decades after the civil war liberal and democratic finally thown down its Soviet shackles will join the EU and NATO. When will this happen, ....my estimates, analysts say the Russian economy will run out of steam by 2025, Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs will run out by late 2025. So I am positing it occurs around 2027. the 110th anniversery of the 1917 revolution.
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  2089. yes always have a plan B and C. and maybe even D just in case that is why Zelensky did not criticize trump at all. he smart hedging his bets. so now its Plan B. time to butter up trump and play games , 2025 will be game negotiations with Trump. In my opinoin the situation is Trump is pres. Trump is for himself , Trump has lots of assets and investments in Russia, also borrowed lots o money from Russian, lots of Russian investments in his companies. So Trump really has vested interest with Putin. HOWEVER....the big guys in the USA and European political and military industria infrastructure have a vested interest to see Russia not win this war, their goal, a much weakened economically and military Russia without Putin and a weak Russian gov. but a Russia stable and not in civil war. Trump may think he is da man, but nope he has to answer to these people. who are much richer than he is. So Trump probably has a vested interest which coincides with the vested interest of the leaders of the American political sphere and military industrial complex. A weakened Russia stable with a weak gov is easilly exploitable by US companies for its cheap natural resources esp . by Trump who is just salivating to get more money from this. and also with Ukraine, the big boys in the US gov and miltiary want Ukraine to not only survive but serve as a foil vs. Russia. Like a wall to keep Russia out of Europe. and to that end , USA and the Europeans want a strong Ukrainian military and a stable ukrainian gov . and the hundreds of billions of USD in Ukrainian reconstruction money comiong will handsomely benefit trump . So I think 2025 will be the year of negotiations, and the war will go on, and there is an even chance the USA continues military aid to Ukraine even under trump. Seeing that possibly in 2026 you might see the start of the collapse of the Russian economy with hyperinflation along with widespread discontent which leads to Putin getting removed from power. So in the future maybe in the USA interest to keep a strong Ukraine hostile to the Russians to act as a wall for Europe, and a Russia will a weak Russian gov and military but with a stable more or less gov that is easilly exploitable for its cheapo natural resources.
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  2093. I predict USA is isolated from the rest of the west on a temporary basis until Trump is gone and the dems voted back to power in the USA. Depends on who wins the German elections which i think the CDU/CSU will still win but AFD will be 2nd place. but the CDU will have a substantial lead over the AFD, not surprised if there is an alliance between the CDU/CSU , The greens and the SPD to suppress the AFD. Just like what they did in France in the 2022 elections. US Trump led tarriff threats vs. the rest of the west and Musk meddling in EU politics has really pissed off the Europeans. For the UK , Conservatives will still win the elections of 2025. The three powers that move and shake the politics in Europe are France, Germany and UK. I think due to Europeans hatred vs. Trump and Musk will mean the Far right does not take power in those three countries. and the EU leads the rest of the west in isolating the Americans. Not surprised if Trump pulls out of NATO in his term. but NATO does not fall apart in fact, the three powers I mentioned takes over leadership of the organization, increases their military spending, cuts back on their welfare. and leads the rest of the west while USA turns isolationist. Canada, Australia Japan the rest of the G7 will turn their backs on the USA. I think Canada will much increase its ties with the EU China, . Mexico. while cutting down trade with the USA on a massive scale. I think the conservatives will still win the 2025 Canadian parlimentary elections but the lead will not be substantial. it will be close. Trump and Musk have effectively alienated many Canadians. I think Canada will now be focusing on building its LNG infrastructure fast on a massive scale to offset the possible Trump tarrifs and be the primary source of energy for the EU. Same with Mexico. I think there will be a economic cooperation between Canada Mexico China and the EU. to isolate the Americans.
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  2110. the moment Russia uses nukes well I can see NATO intervening as they said they would. with air support for Ukrainian forces and air and missle strikes on Russian logistics in Ukraine and sinking of the Black sea fleet. I can also see NATO troops entering Ukraine but no contact with Russian troops being used to secure Ukrainian west and deter the Russians from exploiting the Ukrainian shock being subjected to multiple tac nukes. I think after a brief clashes between NATO and Russia. Things will cool down rapidly. I think the war will end in a Korean war style armistice with Russia getting to keep whatever they conquered, there is an armistice but no peace treaty. between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine will become a NATO protectorate while not becoming a NATO and EU member, its very much a close partner of NATO and EU. In the aftermath, there is no restoring West -Russian pre war relations, in fact, Russia will be considered a pariah state. The west, gradually ramps up total sanctions vs. Russia where Russian assets are seized in the west even going to personal assets of Russian citizens, Russians are deported en masse from western countries. Ukraine gets massive reconstruction money from the west and the Ukrainian economy booms. Meanwhile Russian economy crashes hard. hyperinflation abounds, Russian industry is not able to shift from military to a civlian economy even with Chinese and Indian help. Russia imposes martial law as Russian society starts breaking down with massive rise in criminal activities and anti gov sentiment. This gradually gets worse as Russia slides into some sort of civil war.
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  2142. Yep and that clip of those buryat troops arguing with their chechen handlers about weapons and ammo shortages, this is a very good example of what happens when you throw massive amounts of troops in the fight more than your logistics can handle, and that is a very good reason why these troops are dying in massive numbers , its turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. a target rich environment of poor trained, armed and low morale no motivation Russian troops, there were fears and scares of 500K Russian troops being sent to the front, yah massive numbers but remember those troops need to be fed, trained supplied, armed, in order to fight properly otherwise they turn into a mob that is only good as a bullet absorbers. and the Ukrainians has LOTs of bullets. and Russians logistics is chaotic , and being heavilly disrupted by HIMARs strikes. Russian logistics can be argued to be worse now than they invaded in Feb 2022. Russia may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but if they cant reach the Russian troops in the front due to poor logistics then those weapons are useless. not surprised the Ukrs to Russian kill ratio in the Donbass battles these days in like 5 to 10 Russian soldier for every one Ukrainian soldier casualtiy. also count Russian conscrupts and convicts are being forced to attack dug in , fortified Ukrainian positions many times in high ground positions, with claymore mines, minefields, fields of fire in relatively open ground. attacking mainly in the day since these convicts and conscrupts do not have night vision gear. this is a MASSACRE. that is why its takes a week to dislodge Ukrainian positions. Even with the Russians doing incremental attacks like advancing then digging in then doing it again later going from fire position to fire positions, the Ukrainains just rain accurate artillery fire on them. Worse later if the Ukrs get cluster munititions for theiir missles and artillery,
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  2224. not surprised if Patrushev is running Russia right now having won the struggle with SHoigu, so after Putin went belly up and frozen, the FSB/Rosgvardia(under Patrushev) and the Russian army/GRU(under Shoigu) were ruling Russia jointly but there was a power struggle in the background. However starting early 2024 due to the poor Russian army performance in Ukraine, the FSB won the power struggle, hence Patrushev is in the driver's seat and SHoigu sidelined. Yep so you have a hardliner Patrushev running the show, with the FSB in command of the Russian army. and the war in Ukraine. If that is so, Ive heard Patrushev is even more of a war hawk than Putin and has maximalist goals on Ukraine. If the war goes on and bloodily stalemated with a depressed Russian economy, Patrushev may well lose his position, however from what I heard, Patrushev/FSB won the power struggle handidly and effectively removed Shoigu's supporters in the Russian army and gov. and Patrushev boys are now firmly in charge of the Russian army. so there is really no major faction to challenge Patrushev/FSB for now. Patrushev has also purged (fired and or arrested) possible dissenters in the Russian army. the Loud mouth Prigozhin is dead, Surovikin I hear has been arrested, Igor Girkin is languishing in prison. (rumored to be dead). Navalny dead. and so on, that means Patrushev probably cleaned out purged any possible rival to his regime. and now the Russian army officer corps are populated by yes men and FSB informants. along with lots of micromanagement down to the battalion level from the Kremlin. That is why you notice the Russian army tactics are not just plain jane unimaginative attritional meat attacks. However I do hear a lot of grumblings in the Russian officer corps and many are not happy with how the war is being run. So if the Patrushev flubs up, we could see possible revolt from the Russian army.
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  2262. absolutely correct, Russia has been losing badly in Ukraine since oct 2022. yes people may hee and hawe that Russia has captured bakhmut and marinka, look the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, what people do not say is that 1. the Russian economy is getting degraded , Russian ruble is currently 1 USD to 90 rubles , price of eggs rose 50 percent, etc. 2. Ukraine despite all what the western analysts had said recaptured 50 percent of what they lsot pushing the Russians back against all the odds. 3. Ukrainians are sinking Russian ships big ones too and Ukraine does not have a navy. 4. Russians are fielding T-55s and WW2 artillery to Ukraine, the last time the Russians fielded large numbers of T-55s was during the invasion of Czechslovakia in 1968. 5. Russia is buying and begging weapons from Iran and North Korea. those countries were really looked down as laughinstocks by Russia before the war. 6. Russian army is recruiting from convicts and doing human trafficking to get recruits. 7. the front has not changed much since Dec 2022, its a bloody stalemate , however what's changed Russian casualties back in dec 2022 was about 100K casualties , Now near Jan 1 2023 , 356K casualties , the Russian losses have been horrendous since the moron Russian generals have been using WW1 style human wave tactics on fortified Ukrainian positions with no regard of losses. Im not surprised by the time this war ends you will have 1 million Russian casualties. Also out of those 50 percent are fatalities mainly due to poor Russian battlefield medical , shortage of first aid kits .
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  2362. this proves the Russians dont have the logistics and the men and armor to defeat the Ukrainians, in fact them very much limiting their goals to taking the Donbass means they know they made a grave very very bad mistake of invading Ukraine in the first place and now trying to end the war with taking the Donbass, annoucing they achieved their objectives and demanding peace with their terms to the Ukrainains, Ukrainians knows this and will not accept Russian peace terms, in fact, the only terms the Ukrainains will accept is the Russians to withdraw back to the pre war borders. If Putin does this his political career is Kaput and so is his life. He is trying to fight his way out in order to eke a win out of this fiasco he put himself in and survive but it is not working.The Russians will after conquering the donbass, fortify their winnings pour in more conscripts to go on the defensive. and then demand peace on their terms. of course the Ukrainians will not accept so the Russians will probably pressure them by missle and bombing terror attacks on ukr cities, possible limited punitive offensives designed to inflict Ukr losses and then do scorched earth on Ukr territory then withdraw(very bad idea for the Russians) waving around their nuke arsenal threatening to nuke everyone, ratchet up tensions between them and NATO by doing border incidents or even a naval incident to raise the price of oil. The Russians will try to wear down USA EU support for the Ukrainians which is hte most important since the Ukrainians are being kept afloat by massive financial and military support from the USA and the EU and NATO. and their allies. cutting this off weakens the Ukrainians. and the Russians hope USA and the EU can pressure Ukraine into accepting Russian peace terms. On the other hand, the USA and EU NATO know this and while support for Ukraine might lessen and slacken there will still be significant support from western Govs for Ukraine. and probably more sanctions vs. Russia. They know the main Russian weakness is their economy. Hurt the economy enough and it ends the war in Ukraine. Its all about the economy and in Russia's case, its the oil and gas prices high and needs to be collapsed. along with the EU as a whole ending their reliance on Russian energy exports. Russia is in a losing spiralling game here with their economy under siege from massive sanctions,and the question is how long can Russia last supporting their war in Ukraine.
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  2398. I think this is the case of more like the US and her allies managing the Ukraine war in a way that does not cause Russia do have its back to the wall and possibly use WMDs esp. nukes on Ukraine. Escalation management. The main proponent of this is Jake Sullivan and the atttitude of the USA presidential admin may change with a Kamala win in the elections and Sullivan out of the job as Kamala puts in a brand new National advisory team which I have heard is very much Pro Ukraine and giving Ukraine everything it wants. Also in the grand strategic goal of the USA is that the war ends with the following goals: 1. Putin is removed from power and replaced with a moderate or even pro western regime that they can do business with. 2. Russia does not go into civil war or a simliar type of situation. 3. the war does not escalate to a NATO war with Russia. 4. The Ukrainian gov does not collapse and Ukraine does not become conquered by the Russians or a puppet of Russia. This is why Ukraine's Allies are delaying military aid to Ukraine since if they gave everything Ukraine wanted, I think Ukraine would have already kicked the Russians out of Ukraine or at least delivered major and critical defeats to the Russian army like they did in late 2022 and with that happening would have rapidly collapsed the rule of Putin , and Russia most likely might have collapsed into a civil war type situation. which would have a massive world wide political and economic effect as the price of oil might have shot up rapidly and cause a worldwide economic recession. I think the USA is just watching the political situation in Russia and just waiting for a strong political faction to oppose Putin to emerge that is moderate enough to do business with . and I think in the current situation no such faction has emerged yet and Putin and his buddy Patrushev(FSB) seem to have full control of the Russian political landscape for now, however things can change as the war goes on as Russia's economy and political situation gradually degrades as the war slogs on esp. without major Russian victories and esp. with Ukrainain major victories(like what the Ukrainians are trying to do in Kursk).
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  2404. When Biden wins, it will cause a Tsunami in the halls of the Kremlin, yah Putin will probably double down but his elites will probably cut their losses kick him out and get a new guy in the Kremlin and end the war in Ukraine, Im still confident when Biden wins this year 2024, the elites will remove Putin , blame everything on him, then end the war by mid to late 2025. With a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea. In return Russians get a formal peace treaty with Ukraine, lifting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west, all the frozen Russian money in western banks are unfrozen. No ICC court hunts vs. Russian war criminals. In the aftermath: Ukraine economy booms with trillions of USD in reconstruction moneyi from the west surging into Ukraine, Ukraine gets EU and NATO memvbership with no response from the Russians, Belarus , Georgia replace their pro Russian govs with Pro EU ones. Russia goes into political and economic chaos worse than the 90s with the west having to economicallyi support the new Moscow gov to keep the Russian economy from collapsing and staving off civil war. The new Russian gov is fragile and has weak authority esp. with lots of Russian PMCs running around the country. along with foreign meddling in its affairs. Russia becomes a great game between USA, China , Turkey. EU. for control of its natural resources. Its even made worse with a future crash in world oil prices. Russia does not go into full fledged civil war but parts of Russia either secede or go into some sort of autonomy from Moscow. Russia is beset from high crime ratres law lessness , hyperinflation etc. coupled with gov incompetence and corruption. millions of Russians flee to Europe and elsewhere.
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  2432. Even if Russian captures the Donbass, the war will not end, Ukraine will never accept any armistice or ceasefire unless the Russians leave all territories in Ukr they occupied in 2022. The Russians may think the war will end with the capture of the DOnbass, nope, I think the war will drag on until 2023, where the Russian war effort will collapse with teh collapse of the Russian economy. The war by end of summer of 2022 will center on the Donbass and Eastern Ukraine and devolve into a ww1 style war of attrition. Russian troops will be left in Ukraine to fend for themselves as the Russians are bankrupt, Russia simply quits the special operation. Russia experiences political and economic chaos which leads to loss of control over huge swathes of Russia east of the Urals and the Caucasus. as thousands of angry Russian soldiers in Ukraine go back to Russia , angry at the Russian gov. not paid at all, had to hitchhike their way back to Russia, discriminated against since they are poor, not white , blamed for losing the war in Ukraine, abused by their officers in the military, going back to a collapsed economy Russia , no jobs, food too expensive. abusive local leaderships in their poor area. and these soldiers know how to kill, have experience in killing handling military weapons and vehicles, wonder what they will do coming from historically rebellious to Moscow areas of Russia, you are going to have a civil war in these places who blame Moscow for all their problems and these places will seccede in fact, China will financially and materially support them to exploit their natural resources and get puppet regimes in these places. to stabilize their borders and buffer zones. Russia wont even have viable military as they are bankrupt and had to demobilize their army. and too busy dealing with internal political divisions in Moscow but also against multiple secessionist republics, complete shitshow for Moscow. I see huge swathes of Russia balkanizing into various independent republics while Russia is still a huge country they would have lost control east of the Urals , and in the Caucasus. Russia becomes a great game between the USA and China. proxy fighting for its resources.
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  2451. Meanwhile in Asia, Japan still invades China in mid 1937. The British and French are too distracted by events in Europe. However by 1939, the Japanese are bogged down in China. Also defeat at the battle of nomonhan in 1939, the loss of a key ally in nazi Germany and deteriorating relations with GB,, USA and France, as well as increased British and French military deployments to Asia. Japanese economy has depressed to a war economy by early 1939. All these leads to a stronger "peace faction" in the Japanese gov. advocating to ending the war in China and focusing on possible war with the USSR. Meanwhile Stalin seeing the only strong threat to it was Japan, wants to remove that threat once and for all, also Japanese military weakness in the Japanese defeat at Nomonhan 1939 encourages Stalin to strike as early as possible. Soviet military forces in the far east are still not ready for a general offensive vs. the Japaense in manchuria and Korea. so Stalin massively develops the logistical and transportation infrastructure in the far east and deploys massive amounts of men and materiel to confront the Japanese. Also Stalin increases military support to the KMT Chinese to further bog down the Japanese in China. 1940 war in China continues, despite offered British, French and American mediation, peace talks between the KMT and the Japanese break down. British , American and French military aid to the KMT also increases due to Japanese atrocities in China as well as perceived threats to their Asian holdings as well as numerous provocative incidents with the Japanese military. 1941, Japanese initiate Operation 5, a multi front campaign to seize the KMT capital at Chungking. with an operation larger than the battle of Wuhan 1938. There is also another major military clash between the USSR and Japan in Mongolia bigger than Nomonhan. While the Japanese capture Changsha, and batter the KMT forces the cost is expensive. The Japanese are nowhere near Chungking, the KMT chinese are still resisting, and the Japanes have lost even more men and materiel than wuhan 1938. Also the Japanese lost badly in the largest battle between Soviet and japanese forces to date in Mongolia. as a major part of the Japanese air force was busy vs. the CHinese. Stalin is now convinced the time is ripe to solve the Japanese problem and prepares for a SOviet offensive into Manchuria in 1942.
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  2460. well in my opinion there are a bunch of ways the war can stop as a stalemate of sorts: 1. Russia uses tac nuke(s), to stop the Ukr offensives, NATO and the Russians get into a near war scenario probably shots are fired at each other but not much, it does not escalate to a major war between NATO and Russia, war comes to a Korean war style armistice with the Russians holding whatever terrtiroy they still occupy, and UN troops deploy in Ukraine to seperate Ukraine and Russians, also NATO comes into the country and declares Ukraine into a NATO protectorate. 2. USA mid term elections republican party takes control of the US congress and senate, they drop USA funding for Ukraine. no military support for Ukraine. from the USA. Zelensky is forced to negotiate with Putin....in these stalemate scenarios I think while Putin can try to save face by claiming to have won the Ukr war, since he kept Ukr territory. like 10 percent of Ukraine. The sanctions would remain, few foreign investments will come back to Russia. The Russian army is ruined. in reputation kaput, economy still collapsing. the resentment built up by the war among certain Russian minoritites comes to a boiling point with unrest which is stamped out with a iron hand from Putin. Russia essentially becomes a huge nuke armed version of Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq.with lots of repression, few economic opportunities depressed economy and lots of refugees running away . and when Putin dies, well, Russia starts to break up. Then Ukraine gets back all of its conquered lands back when a new moderate gov takes power in Russia and begs the west for financial aid. in return, Russia will withdraw from Ukraine , accept Ukraine gettting EU NATO membership and having a formal peace treaty .
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  2480. well the 100K men and 900 tanks and 500 arty pieces order of battle is the Russian 1st Guards Tank army, , 2nd Guard Combined arms Army & XI Army corps mostly manned by mobiks reinforced by mulitple BARS and Storm Z convict regiments. Yes lots of them but poor morale, poor quality troops and the tanks while thre are the T-90s, 80s , 72s, there are a lot of 62s and even 55s. Yes the Russians may have improved their strategy now falling back to Soviet style mech operation with two motor rifle groups attacking along a wide front and a tank formation behind ready to exploit any weak point int he enemy lines. exploiting a breakthru. Also improved logistics with shorter lines since the area is near Russia and the Russians are able to easilly supply and gather these units. Opposing them is the Ukr 66th & 32nd Mech brigade supported by the 40th artillery brigade. The Ukr 66th and 32nd are poorer quality unit made up of reservists. The Ukr high command knew of the build up but most fo the Ukr artillery and main forces were focused on Southern Ukraine Zaporizhzhya, and the Ukrainians tried to limit the build up using JDAMs and Storm Shadows to hit Russian logistics but it was not enough. the Rusian offensive started on July 19, but quickly ran into problems due to crossing open fields heavily mined by the Ukrainians, crossing rivers under heavy fire from entrenched Ukrainians on the high ground, attacking Uphill vs. entrenched Ukrainians, also not to mention lots of forests and the Ukrainians with sattelite intel knowing Russian unit dispositions nad movement. Also exacerbating the problem for the Russians is the lack of good roads, in the area, and the Russians are far from their rail lines, and Russian logistics is still very dependent on rail transport and dont have much trucks and the Ukrs are hitting their logistics hard by now. The Russians also have heavier thyan usual air support from SU-25s and attack helicopters and notice the Russians while committing lots of their forces have not really created a breaktrhu that collapses Ukrainian lines. its due to the terrain, bad Russian logistics, poor transport , Ukrainians using mobile defense , it took the Russians a week to achieve some sort of breakthru but from the info I gathered thsi breakthru was stopped by the Ukrainians and starting to be rolled back , again due to terrian, poor transport situation fo their supplies, resolute defending Ukrainians as well as a worsening logistical situation, as well as poor morale and training , the Russians are suffering heavy losses, and the offensive is slower than they would have wanted not because the Ukrs defences are strong with extensive minefields like what the Russians constructed in southern Ukraine and the Donbass but Russians logistics simply cannot handle this massive formation of men and vehicles. Im not surprirsed if you see the return to the 2022 situation ot lots of Russian vehicles getting abandoned due to lack of fuel or artillery slackening off due to ammo shortages. yes the Russians may achieve a breakthru but cannot really support it.
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  2483. yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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  2515. true ...being Chinese from the Philippines, the Chinese are all about making a buck , very capitalistic business oriented. Yah the Chinese want to take back Taiwan not only for the land but to win their civil war which started in 1921 and has not ended yet since the KMT is still alive in Taiwan and protected by the USA. They want to get rid of the KMT and any opposition to the CCP once and for all. As for making a buck, the CCP are very much enemies of the KMT in Taiwan and the Taiwan independence parties. much they have strong business relationships with each other, all of them are enemies but making a buck with each other. Same can be said with the China and USA relationship. Political and military rivals but deep and strong business relationships. USA and EU are China's best business partners and customers but also China's main political and military rivals. As for the Russian Chinese relationship. They never liked each other, heck then almost went to war in 1969 with the Sino Soviet border clashes and the USSR threatened war with China in 1979 if China besieged Hanoi . and still have some border issues. the Russians did not like the way the Chinese were pirating their military designs. and entry into their economy. However due to the Ukraine war and desperation of the Putin gov. China is making a buck out of the Russians , also China is making a buck out of the Ukrainians. by selling both sides drones, electronic equipment , parts, and not surprised if the Ukrainians are buying artillery ammo in the black market and Chinese artillery ammo is being sold there. Russia bought lots of artillery ammo from North Korea, and North Korea has long been a middle man for military arms sales for China. During the Iran Iraq war North Korea was a middle man to sell Chinese weapons to Iran which at the time had arms embargoes on it. Meanwhile the Chinese were selling weapons directly also to the Iraqis. Again the Chinese making a buck.
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  2611. in a continuation: Dems james M Cox wins the 1920 USA presidential elections, FDR still wins the 1932 elections after the stock market crash of 1929 and a bad recession. FDR wins the 1936 elections. Japan still invades China in mid 1937. 2nd Sino Japanese war becomes the largest war since the great war of 1914-1916. Japanese tensions with Russia(who is supporting KMT China with weapons volunteers and monies), USA, Great Britain and France. 1940 USA elections sees the election of Rep. Wendel Wilkie. a Theodore Roosvelt style interventionist who believed Japan should be neutrered just like what happened to Gerrmany during the Great war. After a series of economic sanctions and embargoes on Japan. Japan attacks, Pearl Harbour in Dec 1941 as well as a strike south into French Indochina and British Burma and Malaya to cut off aid routes to KMT China but also secure oil and other resources to continue the war into China. Japan attacks into Russia to cut off aid routes to KMT China. Japan for the first few months from Dec 1941 to early 1942 is wildly successful as the Allies are caugh off guard as they have gravely underestimated the Japanese military capabilities with the capture of Vladivostok, along with the Dutch east indies. and the Philippines, pearl harbour is hit harder than OTL with the sinkng of the US carriers and the destruction of the oil supplies at the base. Singapore however manages to hold out and the Japanese thrust into Burma is stopped in Central Burma by combined British , Indian and Chinese troops. Same with French Indochina as the Japanese are stopped near the old capital of Hue by combined French and Chinese forces. By mid 1942, the Japanese blitzkrieg bogs down as runs out of steam as its overstretched. Japan surrenders in mid 1945, after combined Allied(USA, British and French ) forces conquer Kyushu after horrendous losses and the Japanese by this time have lost most of the Pre war empire, their navy mostly sunk, The Russians, British , French and Chinese have kicked the Japanese out of mainland China and Korea., Burma and Indochina , mass famines destroyed infrastructure due to mass bombings. The British reconquer Malaya. and are fighting in the Dutch East indies. along with mass famines . Japan is occupied by the USA, France , Great Britain and the Russians. Russians are given sakhalin and Kuriles as reparations. Manchuria , Taiwan are given back to China and the Chinese are given Okinawa as reparations. the rest of Japan are partioned into colonial like zones of control by USA, Great Britain and France. Government restructured in a democracy with the Emperor becoming powerless and a figurehead. Mass executions of Japanese war crimimals int he military and civlian gov. basically Japan is partitioned just like Germany with Japan having seperate governments with seperate parliments/diets and independent governance in Kyushu, Shikoku, West and East Honshu and Hokkaido. but having a unified gov with its capital in Tokyo. Also Allied troops occupy Japan to insure Japanese military does not expand from a police force. and to defend Japan from external threats.
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  2641. well when I started trading crypto back in late 2017. I researched on wallets, 1st cardinal rule, I learned never to keep anything on exchanges. My first wallet was a soft wallet Exodus then quickly followed by me ordering two ledger Nano S in late 2017, and two safepals in early 2018. Used ledger Nano S a lot in 2017 to 2021. Now Im using Safepal a lot due to its versatility. and user friendliness. Yah my seed phrases to all my wallets are all in safe places with multiple copies in secure and safe places. Security is my primary concern. 1. sending and receiving crypto, I double check the addresses I send them to. 2. NEVER trade crypto while intoxicated , or not sound of mind. 3. I always order direct from the source. never use 2nd or 3rd parties to buy from. NEVER. 4. I use a smartphone only dedicated to trading. 5. I daily check my wallet. any crypto I see that were sent to me from someone I dont know , that address is blocked. 6. NEVER connect my wallet to unknown sites, I always disconnect after I use Defi even on trusted apps or sites like Uniswap, 1inch etc. 7. I never click on links on my phone. or PC. that are unknown or sent to me from a unknown address or sender. NEVER. 8. and most important rule, NEVER give away your passwords or seed phrases. and also be of sound mind when creating a new wallet. and write seed phrases correctly and in order. I have never lost a wallet or made a wrong transaction, Ive hard lots of phishing scams etc. thrown my way , but nope not fallen for any of them , and I regualry scan my phones with anti virus and have firewalls like Malwarebytes. and I never use my phones to surf questionable sites.
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  2678.  @EconLessons  Yep and to add the Soviet army doctrinally of the cold war is not much different than that of WW2 Soviet army. The Russians since end of WW2 played up the great patriotic war as like a holy war, they constantly glorified it for the past 80 years. and Putin used this to his ends. and these WW2 style ideas will be a disaster to Russia economically , militarily and demographically: Economically despite the Russian GDP growing , its all gov spending geared to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. This is a disaster to the Russian economy in the long run. in fact analysts have predicted that by mid to late 2025 , the Russian economy will start to degrade, and when that happens , hyperinflation and economic depression is just around the corner and there are already signs that the Russian economy is buckling hard under the weight of the costs to support this war which is costing Russia 400 mil to 1 billion USD a day. The appointment of Budanov to replace shoigu as defense minister, Budanov is a economist who believes in centralizing the Russian economy, yep this moron is a big espouser on returning the Russian economy back to teh Soviet economy. Disaster. Also Budanov said he would cut costs and the budget of the Russian army which signals the Russian economy is in trouble. Military: Yep the war has cost the Russians 500K casualties and several thousand kaput tanks and APCs in 2 years and 3 months of war. and the war is still a bloody stalemate despite the Russians having 10X the GDP and military of Ukraine and 5X the population of Ukraine. Russians hold around 20 percent of Ukraine and cant really seem to expand from that. The current Kharkov offensive is turning out to be a disaster for the Russians with the Russians losing 1K casualties a day and the Russian commanding general of this offensive being General Lapin, who was fired in late 2022 for being the commander of Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine after the Ukrainian forces literally collapsed a bunch of Russian divisions under his command and took back a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. Yep they took back and reinstated a Russian moron general who might soon fall from a window if the latest Kharkov offensive turns out to be a disaster. Also as stated earlier Budanov the latest ministry of defense appointee told the Russian Duma during his inaguration that he intends to do budget cuts for the Russian army LOL. DISASTER. Shoigu was already throwing massive amoutns of weapons and money at the war but the Russian army was still failing now budget cuts hahahaahh Demographics: Well the war has costs lots of casualties for teh Russians and possibly 1 million casualties after the war is over and Russian population is actually in decline before the war with some of the worst life expectancies in Europe where the average Russian male has a life expectancy of 65 years. The European average is 80 years. This war will make things worse. and even much more worse a possible bloody civil war after the war is over.
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  2682. well im not surprised that they had the resources to do it, since the Russians have been micro mobilizations a lot , while not doing a massive general mobilizaton, these micro mobilizatons are very much underhanded recruiting from state factory workers, prisons, foreign migrants workers, refugees, , Russian ethnic republics, even foreign recruitment from all over the world being promised high wages. (Cuba and Nepal have been mentioned in the news but I think that is only the tip of the ice berg). Also the Russians still have thousands of tanks and APCs in their stocks. Yah while the Russians still have a lot of resources, their logistics suck, along with their leadership coordination poor morale and training are still there, while their coordination and logistics has somewhat improved their Soviet style combat doctrine still remains the same. Yah while they have a lot of resources and manpower to throw at the Ukrainians , their logistical situation is still quite bad, since the Ukrainians are targetting their supply trucks and trains and logistic depots so while the Russians can do big offensives they cnat sustain them for long and they fall apart due to lack of fuel and ammo. Also the RUssian logistics is reliant on trains and the front lines in the east are far from rail heads and the Russians need to transport supplies from their rail heads via trucks and the Russians have a truck shortage since the Ukrainians are targetting them a lot(not to mention the fake Chinese truck tires on Russian trucks), the Russians have gotten so desperate that they are using civlian pick up trucks and cars to ferry supplies to their troops on the front line. Also the Russians are attackng on flat open ground sown with a lot of Ukrainian mines. with teh Ukrainians on high ground positions. Russian strategy seems to just try to drown the Ukrainians with tanks and APCs after the usual Russian massive rolling artillery barrage , the Russian tanks and APCs would run into mines get disabled then the Ukrainians would hit them with artillery and ATGMs. and the Ukrs would sow more mines with MLRS NATO mines. These factors are the main reasons why the Russian Avdiivka offensive is so slow and bloody. for the Russians. The motives for this offensive in my opinion is Garasimov trying to fend off allegations of his criminal incompetence by other Russian generals, Garasimov has been criticized for being criminally incompetent and constantly micromanaging and meddling into the work of other generals, he is also considered to be a politicking ahole who likes to bully his subordonates and likes to fire any Russian officer who crosses him or threatens his position real or perceived whether they are competent or not. So the Avdiivka offensive is his baby and he wants to prove to the Russian leadership and other Russian generals that he is competent. and has the balls and knowhow to successful lead and plan a campign. I would compare Garasimov to the suckhead Soviet generals Buddyonny and Pavlov. he is that bad. and Garasimov is still in power due to his close friendship with Shoigu and Putin.
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  2691. its amazing that the Ukrs were able to punch thru Russian defenses at Robotyne without air support, the Southern Front is a disaster for the Russians, who are suffering from supply and manpower shortages esp. in artillery and artillery ammo, its so bad that the Ukrs actually have artillery superiority over the Russians in the Southern Front. since the Ukrs are very effectively targetting Russian logistics and artillery with HMARS, JDAMs and cluster munitions which have destroyed a lot of Russian artillery. Russians are desperately shipping more men and artillery to Robotyne try to stop the Ukrs but these are getting interdicted by the Ukr HAMRS and JDAMs. the other fronts have seen Russian diversionary attacks esp. at Kupiansk but all failures. in fact the Bakhmut front is shaping to be a disaster for the Russians as the Ukrs have retaken all the high ground and are encircling the Russian defenders there, supposedly Putin has ordered the Russian defenders at Bakhmut to fight to the death hahahha. I can see the Ukrs going as far as capturing Tokmak and even Bakhmut by Oct 2023. and while the Ukr offensive would be seen as a failure its actually a success, as they would have captured Tokmak at important transportation hub in the area but also Bakhmut for politicla reasons, the Ukr recapture of Bakhmut woulud alone be a political disaster for Putin. Also I think an even more significant blow to Putin would be the loss of massive amoutns of Russian casualties, vehicles and resources. Im not surprised Putin would be forced to do another mobilization heck he may even declare the special military operation a real war. I expect a Russian winter offensive to try to recapture Tokmak. Ukraine is winning by further weakening Putin's political standing. Heck you will probably see another coup vs. Putin after the Ukr recapture of Bakhmut.
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  2700. The Russians will pay very hard after this war, when the recession hits next year oil prices will crash hard. and when that happens, Russian economy is KAPUT. and when that happens it will be the worse timing. A Russian economy already badly hurt due to sanctions , Euro countries reducing their dependence on Russian energy significantly. along with worse sanctions, and the Russians may probably have gained significant territory in Ukraine but its a hollow victory. By that time the Russians probably lost like 100K men in Ukraine depressed economy and unrest among the Russian people. The recession will collapse the Russian economy, also Putin's cash reserves by next year will have depleted significantly. Collapsing Russian economy will very much critically hurt Russian military logistics in Ukraine. to the point the Ukrainians actually making significant gains on the battlefield. resuliting in the recapture of large portions of Ukr territory . All these come to a head, unrest massively goes up, riots, rebellions due to food basic goods shortages. PUtin gets purged either through a coup or rebellion. revolution. War ends messy for the Russians, new gov blames putin for the whole fiasco , PUtin is probably dead by this time. Calls for peace talks armistice cessation of war. Then in the peace talks Russians withdraw from all of Ukriane minus Crimea. most sanctions gets lifted. Russia gives back crimea a few years later for full sanctions lifted and economic aid from the west for its collapsing economy. Russia is so bankrupt, it cant even withdraw its troops from crimea who are not paid, are abandoned and leave on their own for Russia or apply for political refugee to the EU. many of these former Russian troops become bandits in the Ukr Russian border areas. Rioting and looting. which the Russian army and police have a difficult time stopping. THe Ukrainian army also has to fight them on their side of the border. Millions of Russians refugee out of Russia to the EU. and surrounding countries, Russian army is mainly demobilized and a skeleton of its former self due to the Russian gov not being able to pay for its soldiers. A very weak Russian army means it cant stop the unrest and rebellions going on across Russia. esp. in the Caucasus , and in the Far East. in the next ten years,after armistice in late 2023 Russia becomes a proxy battleground between USA and China, for its resources trying to influence the new republics born from Russia. who loses about 50 percent of its pre war territory to secession. Things stabilize in the 2030s for Russia who is leaner smaller, still a huge country but with a stable political and economic situation. and democratic and western allied. the other new former Russian republics are a mix of states who are aligned with various powers esp. in the far east and Siberia who are Chinese puppet states. the Caucasus Chechnya annexes a good portion of Russian caucasus and decalres itslef the Emirates of the Caucasus is very much supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Azerbaijan.
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  2739. a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps Russian Order of battle: 2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X. Ukrainian Order of battle: 13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X. aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk. Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster. also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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  2751. I predict that the Russian proposed victory year end of 2026 will in fact be the Ukrainian victory year. When Biden wins this year and the dems sweep the congress and senate, the USA will massively increase aid to Ukraine, 2025 and 2026 will be deemed the horrible years by the Russians. I predict Ukraine wins this war when Russia goes into revolution civil war in 2027, 110 years after the last civil war in 1917. The longer Russia is in this war with a leader who likes to fights to the end and double down all the time, the more the Russian military economy and political stability is destroyed. The more of the Russian budget and economy is devoted to war, more of the Russian civilian infrastructure which is already bad starts to break down, also Russian economy cannot handle costs of the war, for a prolonged period of time, I expect hyperinflation to hit Russia by late 2025 to 2026 as the national wealth fund runs out. Also Russian stocks of cold tanks and APCs might run out by late 2025 to 2026. Heck the Russians might be forced to buy North Korean tanks and try to disguise them as Russian tanks to avoid humiliation hahah. A combination of a depressed economy , Ukrainian major victories in the field, hyperinflation and rising prices of essential goods and hardships for the Russian civilians will result in unrest in Russia and in the Russian army in Ukraine. which leads to more Russian gov repression which leads to civil war revolution heck just like 1917. The Ukraine war will lead to a civil war which will take years to conclude and results in millions of Russians dead and millions as refugees. and the Russian ruble will be toilet paper. What is coming the Russians will wish the 90s was back and Putin was never born.
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  2815. so lets see how the Russians performed in 2024, lost 400K casualties taking 1 percent of Ukraine in one year, which in terms of land size is an area the size of Rhode Island NY, or Luxembourg. Overall in 3 years of war, the Russians took 20 percent of Ukraine or an area the size of Pennyslvania for 800K casualties. and still the Ukrainians are still fighting hard, hitting Russian oil refiniries and ammo dumps in mainland Russia itself, helped the Syrian rebels overthrow Assad, a major Russian ally. 5 months Russians took around 400 square KMs at Kursk, or 50 percent of what the Ukrainians took in 1-2 weeks. while suffering 40K casualties for an area the size of Denver Co. Despite the Russians and North koreans outnumbering the Ukrainians at Kursk 2 or 3 to 1 with heavy air and artillery support. Also Russians have to beg the North Koreans to send artillery ammo missles and volunteers., in fact as of now, 60 percent of Russian artillery ammo and 30 percent of Russian missles are NOrth Korean made. Its that bad. If I was grading the Russians at school exams for the year 2024, I would give them a D. less than satisfactory performance. noting the RUssians have a massive advantage over the Ukrainians in terms of economy , manpower, and firepower, Russians could have done much better but due to poor Russian combat doctrine, leadership, corruption, poor tactics. yep the Russians are messing up the war. and I find it funny Russians still say they are fighting NATO not Ukraine hahhaha. Very amusing.
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  2836. seems like the Ukrainians have been raising merry hell in the Kursk region, its a confused fight but the only one confused seems to be the Russians, the Ukrainian have full intel well coordinated know what they are doing, the Russians are just throwing anything and anyone they can get their hands on and with teh FSB taking over , its so bad that most of the Russian troops they are sending have been units in the process of being rebuilt after taking heavy losses in Urkaine. , its so rushed that many units are lacking even radios, drones, tanks, APCs etc. Just a warm body and a gun seem to be good enough to be send to try to stop or slow down the Ukrainians. Russian reinforcing units seem to be coming in and being assigned to already preexisting Russian units in the area eseentially rebuilding them. Then many of these units are being deployed shoulder to shoulder in order to create a semblance of a defence line to prevent Ukrainians from raiding their flanks and rear areas. Detachments of Rosgvardia and Chechens are being deployed as minders to make sure no one runs away. Then the Russians are donbassing the Ukrainians with continous multiple attacks. However the problem is that the Russians do not have much intel on the whereabouts of the Ukrainians who are constantly on the move and while the Russians are continiously trying to attack or advance to suspected Ukrainian positions, the Ukrainians are ambushing and attacking the Russians with FPV drones and accurate artillery strikes. along with ambushes.
    2
  2837. im not surprised by any of this Putin bankrolled the Trump campaign for billions of USD through Russian oligarch investors to Musk and his friends companies then funnelled to Rep super pacs lobbies etc. Trump convinced Putin he is his only saviour in the war with Ukraine and the money was used to bribe Rep poliiticos to nominate Trump. However as we all know, Trump is known for backstabbing his business partners esp. when he has the leverage to do so for more money, in this case, Trump when he wins probably went to tell Putin well we have to make a new deal. and that was why Putin was reportedly pissed off(probably Patrushev was pissed off) however knowing Trump , he cant afford to alienate Trump. since the USA has all the leverage vs. Putin. and Russia. So not only does Trump get paid LOTs of money by Putin but also gets to indulge in the hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction funds going to Ukraine after this war is over. Trump specializes in real estate and construction, so Ukraine needs reconstruction, and that is where Trump will make mucho dinero a lot more money. Probably also threatened Putin(Patrushev) if his investments in Russia are ever harmed, he would go all out and support Ukraine even more. Trump feels he can make more money in Ukraine than in Russia. while satisfying and appeasing the US military industrial complex. as they get to sell even more weapons to Ukraine post war as Ukraine rebuilds rearms and reforms its military to NATO lines. Plus he gets adoration from the world , and Ukraine for stopping the war and saving Ukraine. Probably gets the Nobel Peace prize he covets.
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  2847. Many people think Ukrainian is losing , nope they dont see the bigger picture, Russia which has 10X the GDP, the # of tanks, artillery, combat planes , warships, firepower and 5X the manpower when compared to Ukraine only controls 20 percent of UKraine, the Russians originally controlled 40 percent of Ukraine but the Ukrainians took 50 percent of that back in late 2022. Managed to fight the Russians to a standstill , inflicted 400K casualties thousands of destroyed tanks and destroyed 25 percent of the Black sea fleet despite not having a navy. and now destroyed nearly 20 percent of Russia's oil and gas producing capacity with the Russians not able to stop the Ukrainians despite bragging to have the 2nd strongest army in the world. Heck lets not talk about land mass which Ukraine is much smaller than Russia. Russia has really underperformed in thsi war and its economy while growing due to the Russian gov feeding money into the economy is only growing due to Moscow changing it to a war economy, good in the short term very very bad int he long term esp. if this war ends in a defeat. Yep same thing happened to the Russian empire war economy for 3 years 1914-1917 then due to defeats on the battlefield, poverty and the Russian empire gov being aholes to its own people well resulted in the 1917 revolution which led to economic collapse and the very bloody Russian civil war 1917 to 1922. I forsee a Russian civil war occuring and then a economic collapse. possibly the fire is started by Russian security forces massacring Russian protesters.just like 1917
    2
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  2854. I think its going to go on until 2025-2026, Putin wil hold until the results of the 2024 USA elections. if Biden wins, war ends in 2025 to 2026, since Russian economy cannot take another 4 years of war. and his oligarchs and gov officials will know when Biden wins the USA elections that Russia cannot win the war, and would want to end the war with less cost to the Russian economy and military. Im not surprised by this time, the Russian have been dealt with numerous major defeats, and Putin is really hated by Russian officers, next time there is a major coup it will most likely be supported by the Russian oligarchs and gov officials who will go after Putin , Shoigu, Garasimov first and his inner circle. I think the new Russian gov will want to reestablish good relations with the west and back to business before the war relations. This will mean Russia giving up all conquered territories in Ukraine, giving up all claims to Ukrainian territory , a formal peace treaty, and no contest to Ukraine joining NATO and the EU. and the prosecution of Russian war criminals. and some sort of repratoins, in return back to normal relations with the west and the EU, lifting of all economic sanctions on Russia, plus economic aid to Russia. Ukraine economy will boom post war with the reconstrution. Russia will have a period of disorder with teh 90s coming back in style. I can see some parts of Russia seceding like Chechnya Dagestan but most of Russia will be intact. but the Moscow gov. will be weak with the Russian army in shambles. as Russia focuses on economic development trying to save its economy and get out of depression rather than building up its military again. I think what will happen to Russia post war, is that Russian military and police will still be there but Russian corporatoins and PMCs will become more powerful and act as entities keeping Russia stable. I can see a weak oligarch controlled Moscow gov. with Russian corporations becoming the new lords of Russia, Russia will really become a corporate controlled state. with PMCs becoming the Russian military and police. I can see local entiies forming their own PMCs to take over local police law and order duties. and the Russian oligarchs will make sure no one like PUtin ever becomes Czar of Russia again. and they will make sure the Russian pres. and gov is fully oligarch controlled. SO what does this mean for the Russian people, back to the 90s again, with high inflation rates, lack of law and order. high crime rates. In short Russian corporations back by their PMCs will become countries unto themselves, with the Russian gov not able to control them.
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  3005. its very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends. Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up. So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more. I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war. Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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  3052. also the war has to viewed on economics Russian economy is heavily dependent on sales of oil and natural gas, oil prices need to be 30 USD at least for the Russians to pay for thier operating costs th pump the oil out of the ground alone. Now the current oil price is 75 USD for Russian crude oil. The Russians are selling their oil at 20 to 30 percent discount, EU put a oil cap on them at 60 USD. so China and India and others are buying the oil at around 56 USD. Now with the coming worldwide economic recession depression forecast to occur in 2023 to 2024. In every recession oil prices crashed very much. So what happens if worldwide oil prices crash to 30 USD by 2024. EU imposes a oil price cap of 30 USD. and China and India and other buy Russian oil for say around 22 USD. this will be disaster for the Russian economy. I can see a near collapse of the Russian economy by 2025. resulting in high rates of unrest and possible armed insurrection in Russia. coupled with costs of the war in Ukraine. along with sanctions. Im not surprised if Putin starts getting desperate by 2025 or even 2024 if a Pro Ukraine USA pres. is in the white house, and starts using WMDs on the battlefield. I think by that time the Russian military is very much dillapidated with a fractured unstable political siutation in Russian with Putin faciing economic collapse and widescale unrest and resistance to new calls foir mobilization. Putin will do anything to remain in power. 2024 will be an important year to the Ukr war a turning point.
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  3061. Yes Russia plans to take as much of the Donbass as possible then hunker down. Russian leadership is not that stupid, they know what a massive US aid to Ukraine like this will affect the battlefield from past experience. So hit the Ukrainians as hard as they can while they are weak, then hunker down , if Trump wins, I can see a bigger offensive in 2025, If Biden wins, then I see the Russians doing defense in the face of increased US Allied aid to Ukraine in 2025 to 2026. and possible to 2027 to 2028 and hopefully the next pres. in 2028 after Biden is Trump or someone like him. Also the Russians are in a time limit. their economy will not be able to support the war by late 2025 into 2026 due to increased sanctions, Russian national wealth fund running out, increased costs of the war, Ukrainian attack on Russian infrastructure, along with a tank and APC shortage due to Russian cold war stocks of weapons running out by late 2025 into 2026 which leads to possible Ukrainian major victories and the Russian increasingly finding it difficult to fight the war. Also as more of the Russian budget and economy gets devoted to the war, which leads to a more depressed economy widespread failing Russian infrastructure which leads to massive amounts of Russian civilian deaths due to failure of dams , collapse of bridges and esp. failure of Russian power plants leading to extended days long black outs during winter which can be deadly when in the extreme Russian winter weather. Also hyperinflation and rising food costs causes food stuffs to be expensive leading to widespread hunger in Russian poor areas. which are target of Russian mobilization efforts. As the war drags on , Russians even with increased pay offers for volunteers, eventually this will not be enough since the Russians will not be desperate enough to go to Ukraine where a high chance of being a one way ticket to the afterlife. and widespread corruption in the Russian army means many dont get paid,. So the Russians will probably have to force mobilize to keep the war running, This will all lead to widespread unrest, probable rebellion vs. forced mobilization and when the Ukrainians win major victories, grumblings in the Russian army of mutiny and rebellion.. This also leads the Russian gov to clamp down even more on dissent, martial law. etc. and this leads to my anger in the Russian populace and enlisted men. Just needs a spark to start a civil war. Ukrainians are more susceptible to the vicissitudes of foreign support , depending on who are in power in the USA most importantly , then Germany , UK , France in that order. Also the Ukrainians have to do more mobilizations to get their manpower up.
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  3097. well I predict the victory of Joe Biden in 2024 and the dems sweeping congress and senate and the purging of the rep party of maga elements and the destruction of the Maga faction will cause massive shockwaves in the halls of power in the Kremlin and Beijing. The Russian and Chinese elites will say our ploy vs. the west is kaput so we will go back to Pre war status quo which means , OK we Russians and Chinese sell to our best customers the west more or less good relations and behave. So both the Russians and Chinese elites purge thier respective dictators namely Putin and Xinping and return control of Russia and China to their elites and they will probably make sure no one like Putin or Xinping ever comes to power again. So I think after Biden wins in 2024 and wins big by sweeping the house and senate, in 2025, Russian and Chinese elites Purge Putin and Xinping and their people. both leaders either suffer deaths of natural causes or with Xinping imprisonment resignation. A few months later , Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine, tensions ease considerably in the South China sea. and with Taiwan. as Chinese military forces are withdrawn from to Chinese bases. Almost a back to business as usual status quo environment occurs. The new Russian and Chinese leaders blame Putin and Xinping for the Ukraine war and tensions with Taiwan. The new Russian and Chinese leaders are controlled by their own elites who will not let another Putin or Xinping come to power. Putin and Xinping do not get another term of office. To speculate as to what happens next. The west goes back to buying cheapo Russian gas and oil, the west starts to uplift the economy of Vietnam and China to serve as a foil and alternative to China. China and Russia still get support and trade in investments from the west but not as much compared to before the Ukraine war and the third term start of Xinping. The west do not want Russia and China to go into economic depression as it would trigger unacceptable instabilities in those countries but want stable Chinese and Russian govs. but not rich enough for them to develop their militaries and to get the rise of dictatorial elements. Ukraine gets all of its pre 2014 land back including Crimea, gets trillions of USD of investments from the west and economy booms also Ukraine gets accepted in EU and NATO. Belarus and Georgia throw off their pro Russian govs and later in a decade Belarus and Georgia get accepted in the EU and NATO, Armenia gets accepted into the EU. and becomes a NATO protectorate. Russia goes into economic political chaos. but the west makes sure the new western leaning Russian gov is stable but the new Rusian gov has to contend with a plethora of rival nationalist and secessionist and criminal factions with their own armed militias. who are financed and supported by China and Turkey/Saudi Arabia. Russia becomes a new great game between USA, Turkey/Saudi Arabia and China. Iran purges its pro Putin leaders and gets a new pro west leadership, not surprised if they destroy their nuke program. North korea is hit with even bigger massive sanctions possible military conflict or confrontation with North Korea now bereft of Chinese support, as the west want North Korean blood. Im not surprised if Kim JOng Un and his sister suddently dies of natural causes replaced by his brother. and North Korea begins reapproachment with teh west. China wants good relations with the west and is willing to sacrifice the North korean leadership to do it.
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  3099. You can tell that Russia is losing this war and losing desperate...how???: 1. Russian propogandists are always threatening to nuke the west for this and that an they have red lines that will mean war with NATO, and yah NATO crossed those red lines and no war happened, this means Putin is scared of the west. 2. Russians may have gained on a tactical level dozens of Kilometers of land in the Donbass recently yep , they crow about capturing a town or village here and there, or hey how about that slag trash dump area near Bakhmut or Avdiivka. but it costs the Russians tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of destroyed vehicles doing it. and the Ukrainians still retreat in good order to new lines of defense. suffering a lot less than the Russians. but on a strategic level the map has not really changed, the gain is infinitesimal. The Russians dont have the logistics the create a breakthrouh in Ukrainian lines and exploit it to cause the Ukrainians to collapse wholesale. The Ukrainians did it to the Russians in late 2022 in the Kharkov counteroffensive. where the Ukrainians caused a breakthrough in Russian lines near Kharkov and expoited it and collapsed the Russian lines, gaining thousands of Kilometers of recaptured Ukrainian territory , a whole Russian army collapsed(2nd GTD, 2nd GMRD and 11th army corps) which cultiminated at the recapture of Izyum Sept 17 2022 and the Ukrainians captured 450 Russians tanks and APCs in what Igor Girkin called the largest tank losses since the Battle of Kursk 1943, many Russian ran away stealing bicycles and cars and running back to Russia. The Russians have not been able to do the same to the Ukrainians despite doing far more attacks with larger amounts of men and tanks. 3, Russians are recruitjng thousands of convicts and foreign volunteers from third world countries. You only do this when you are desperate for manpower. 4. Russians are buying ammo and missles from North Korea, for Russia one of the largest weapons manufacturers in the world, this is humiliating and you only do this again when you are desperate. 5. Russians fielding tanks and miltary equipment from WW2 and the 50s and 60s.
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  3125. well my take on it is that a Allied(mainly USA and USSR but with small contributions from the British and French) invade and conquer the Japanese home islands by like 1947. The Soviets would have conquered all of the Sakhalin, Kuriles and Hokkaido islands while the USA would take all of Honshu, Kyushu and Shikoku. Not surprised the campaign would have been extremely brutal for all sides as the Japanese would fight to the death and both sides would be using chemical weapons, and the US would be using multiple atomic weapons. The Soviets would have deported all the surviving Japanese civilians in their conquered areas as they did in OTL to the USA zone of control. and repopulate these areas with Russians, in fact Hokkaido main northern Japanese island was sparsely populated at the time of invasion of its population would have been drastically reduced. The USA would have been responsible for literally all the rebuilding of its controlled Japanese territories and would have executed a bit more Japanese war criminals than in OTL. Since many Japanese gov officials were probably killed during the invasion or executed later, the post war Japanese gov would have made up mostly of USA and Soviet military and civlian personel. The Soviets annex its conquered Japanese areas in the USSR . the USA would designate its occupied areas of Japan as administered territories which is a nice term for colony, essentially USA controlled areas of Japan becomes a USA colony. and would not be given independence due to the hundreds of thousands of American casualties just taking Japan. I can see the USA immigrating hundreds of thousands of Americans from the mainland to Japan. as Japan rebuilds. and settling down so Japan by the 70s has a sizable American minority. the Japanese population post war is reduced from its pre war levels by around 50 percent noting millions of Japanese died during the conquest of Japan 1945 to 1948, and probably a million or so more in the brutal pacification campaigns of the late 40s and 50s. (note Emperor dies during the invasion of Japan). USA occupied Japan gets completely Americanized. so by 2000 Japan(Okinawa, Kyushu Honshu and Shikoku) becomes the 51st state of the USA. where English is the main language spoken followed by Japanese. Japan is one of the richest states in the USA and rivals the GDP of the states of Texas and California. Meanwhile the invasion of Japan by the Allies has a major effect on the rest of Asia, KMT and CCP start fighitng each other in a major way starting 1946 , even with the Japanese still controlling eastern China. without USA aid(as the USA is focused on the invasion and conquest of Japan), the CCP defeats the KMT by 1949. as in OTL what replaces USA aid however is the hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops in Eastern China and Formosa whose Japanese military govs surrender to the Allies in 1947 however many Japanese troops join the KMT to fight the CCP. Chiang and the KMT remnants flee to Formosa now being called Taiwan. All of Korea is overrun by the Soviets by 1946. and the new Korean country is headed by Soviet puppet Kim Il Sung.
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  3176. the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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  3185. well its true the Russian economy is kaput and with high inflation and the Russian rainy day fund getting low, however I highly suspect they are borrowing lots of money from the Chinese , Indians , Saudis, UAE, under the table at very high interest , along with oil sales which btw, the Russians are just barely making a profit which is propping up the economy therefore prolonging the war. Short term this is great, Russia has the money to fund the war, buy North Korean artillery ammo(which now constitute 50 to 60 percent of Russia artillery ammo stocks) and soldiers and missles and Iranian drones, missles and artillery ammo(10 percent of the Russian artillery ammo stocks) all at inflated prices paid for in a mix of non Russian ruble currency, resources and weapons tech. Short term gain, Putin gets to continue his war as his life, regime and legacy literally depend on winning this war so Putin is desperate and to the wall to do anything including begging the North koreans to intervene and funding Donald Trump's presidential campaign and the western far right and far left political parties to the tune of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, he needs the war to continue since as the war stands, Russia is not winning this war, in fact, in the current offensive, Russia since Jan 1 2024, in nearly 10 months of all out offensives, Russia has taken 0.25 percent of Ukrainian territory(Russia currently holds around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory), suffered 320K casualties 10K destroyed tanks, IFVs and APCs, at the battle of Vulhedar alone it took the Russians 2 years, 50K casualties and 1k destroyed tanks APCs and IFVs just to take a town(with a pre war population of 15K) and have essentially captured a pile of rubble, ruins. The Russians have been buying lots of North Korean artillery ammo missles and now buying North Korean mercenarie(at 2K USD per soldier per month) s to fight in Ukraine since regular Russians despite offers of 4K USD per month to fight in Ukraine are refusing to fight. also Ukraine has been drone bombing Russian oil refiniries and ammo depots a lot with Russian air defenses barely able to stop them, also the Ukrainians actually invaded Russia and took an area the size of Los Angeles in a week. and for nearly 5 months now, the Russians have been throwing men and tanks just trying to kick the Ukrainians out but the Ukrainians are still holding a large chunk of Russian territory. Yep the Russians are not winning this war and with a looming Kamala harris win at the USA presidential elections, well , the RUssian economy cannot take another 4 years of war at this rate.
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  3207. I find it very funny that when Orban was reelected back in APril 2022, during his main speech Orban gave a derisive laugh on the chances of Ukraine surviving the Russian invasion, Orban made speeches that Ukraine wont survive the year and the EU was wasting money on Ukraine, now 2.5 years later, the Russians after 700K casualties and tens of thousansds of Kaput tanks and APCs and the war a bloody stalemate and the Russians only controlling 20 percent of Ukraine and Ukraine controlling Russian territory the size of Los Angeles, Orban is crying out we need to stop the war to end the bloodshed, its not anymore Ukraine will lose but Orban is probably afraid Russia would lose, hahhaahah. Orban knows he backed the wrong horse and is desperately trying to end the war with terms favourable to Russia and really hoping Trump wins NOv 2024, He is quite afraid not only of Russian funding drying up if the Russians lose the war, but the EU coming for him next. After the war is over, it wil not end well for not only Putin , but he will bring down his moron allies in the EU like Orban, Fico, hitler wannabe kickl. and heck also bring down Putin puppets like Lukoshenko , & Kobakhidze. wonder why some smarter Euro far right figures like Le Pen and Wilders are much silent distancing themselves from Putin, since they know due to the failure of the Ukraine invasion Putin's days are numbered and they dont want to get removed and possibly go to prison after the Ukraine war is over and EU focuses on cleaning up its pro Russian politicos.
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  3286. My view is , the war will end by late 2023 and even extend into early 2024. From what I hear the Russian strategy is to force the Europeans to stop supporting Ukraine by waiting until winter then turning off the energy taps to the Europeans and damange the European economy through I think will be some of the worst winters in history in Europe. I think while this will cause a lot of damage to the EU economy NATO with some dissent will stick behind Ukraine. The Europeans offended will probably mostly stop buying energy from Russia. and the RUssian strategy will backfire and the Russians will lose a major customer from the Europeans. and the Russian economy will suffer badly. So failing this ploy , the only strategy to fall back on is escalation. By mid 2023, the Ukrainians are now doing major offensive operations vs. the Russians, NATO miltary aid and training are finally paying off big time, , the RUssian army is decrepit, and increasingly more brittle, yes they still have a lot of men in Ukraine and the Russians still have strong manpower reserves but the RUssian economy is collapsing, there are shortages, unrest , the weapons they are deploying on the front are increasingly getting vintage. also the crash in oil prices have really affected teh economy , the Russians only hold ten percent of Ukraine as a rejuventated Ukrainian army is increasingly defeating the Russians on the battlefield. while the Russians are still able to field lots of men and equipment, these Russian soldiers have very low morale and poorly trianed, also Russian leadership is also still poor. now using incrasingly older military equipment. and in contrast the Ukrainians mainly have high morale , very motivated, well trained and well experienced armed with high quality advanced NATO weapons with good leadership and tactics. So I think Putin in order to avert a military disaster and total defeat in Ukraine , uses a number of low yield tactical nuke weapons in Ukraine to force a ceasefire scare NATO leadership and force the Ukrainians to accept Russian peace terms. Ceasefire happens and tensions between NATO and Russia go to near war levels. and NATO threatens the Russians any more use of nukes and chemical weapons will result in NATO intervention in Ukraine and war with RUssia. total sanctions by USA EU and their allies vs. Russia and threats vs. Chiina India to include sanctions on them if they dont sanction Russia. Russian economy collapses even more. Russia is economically isolated. peace talks occur while this is happening the ceasefire is broken a several times mostly by the Russians. who do offensives vs. the Ukrainians but these offensives are defeated. with heavy losses of the Russians, however Ukraine is heavilly pressured not to do offensives vs. the Russians, just counteroffensive but dont retake more Russian territory. NATO meanwhile supplies Ukraine with even more weapons like front line warplanes even maybe NATO tanks. Peace talks extend into 2024 all the while the Russian economy is collapsing and there are more shortages unrest Putin gets more desperate and plans to break the stalemate with the use of nukes and planning war with NATO. Before Putin can enact the pan, Putin dies of "natural causes" or removed from power through other means , moderates take over. peace talks continue but with a lot less tensions. Then Russia announces complete withdrawal from Ukraine except for Crimea. The Russian republics of Donetsk and LUhansk are abandoned, and are conquered swiftly by the Ukr army. Crimea is not returned. in exchange, most sanctions are withdrawn. HOwever the war has left a bad taste on the mouth of Europeans and a state of war still exists between Ukr and Russia viewing that Ukraine still does not recognize the Crimea as Russian territory. The Europeans are sitl not buying Russian energy and do not trust the Moscow gov. even though run by moderates who were former close putin associates though not his inner circle. While the Russia is not anymore economically isolated most foreign investment do not come back to Russia and low oil prices are really impacting Russia's ability to economically recover. in fact , Russia's economy has really been damaged by 2 years of some of the worst sanctions ever imposed on a country. Also the many thousands of Russian troops going back to Ukraine have not been paid going back to unemployment weimar style inflation and discrimination due to them being blamed for losing the war. also a collapsed economy means massive cuts to army budget as Russia tries to economically survive. This results in high unrest , very high crime rates and Russia undergoes a decade or two or political , social and economic chaos. probably going to civil war levels. Russia probably gets desperate and gives back Crimea to Ukraine in exchange for massive economic aid and the removal of the rest of hte sanctions. I can see Russia losing 50 percent of its territory to secession. esp. in the Caucasus central asia, Siberia and Far East.
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  3314. Allan Lichtman is DA MAN...the most accurate election predictor since I started following him in 1988. Yep so far if you look at the keys. 2 keys are definitely false.(Key #1 Reps control the house since the last midterms . Key #12: Biden is not a charismatic pres. .) and the rest are currently true. (#2. no serious contest to Biden's position in the dem party though lately after the first debate you might have stronger contenders but looking at the DNC line up vs. Biden they look all uncharismatic nowhere near the backing of Biden), #3 Biden is the sitting pres. and still running for a 2nd term. 4. There is no significant 3rd party to challenge biden in fact RFK threatens Trump more than biden. 5. strong economy no recession all time high stock markets. 6. Strong long term economy, yep massive improvement from the last covid crash of 2020. 7. Yes Biden has made several major policy changes during his term like his Covid decrees etc. 8. no unrest, the pro palestine unrest is bullshit, did not affect the USA much, irritating but the Trumpers might cause problems.like BLM did in 2020. 9. No scandal, hunter biden went to jail , he has been forgotten. 10. No foreign military failure, both the Ukraine and Gaza wars while tense have been managed well and not escalated. 11. Bidens decision to aid the Ukrainians massively stopped the Russians from conquering Ukraine, I consider that a major foreign policy success and currently Russia is stuck in a costly unwinnable war in Ukraine and getting desperate. 13. Trump is not charismatic , he is trying to be like fist pumping after his attempted assasination trying to emulate Reagan well this did not garner him more support in fact it just galvanized his supporters. the keys I consider shakey are keys #2, 3 due to the aftermath of the first debate, and key #8 for possible 2020 style riots by the Trumpists after their lord and saviour Trump got assasianted. However I do think all that will pass with Biden getting nominated with strong backing during the DNC in the next month. Also Biden has to come back strong in the 2nd debate. Also the attempted Trump assasination has to be treated reallyi carefully by BIden to avoid the trumpists going crazy and doing shit. but so far Biden has been very conciliatory to Trump. acted like a true gentleman
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  3351. yes agree claims of turning points are premature and we will see in the next week or so how the battle goes, my vbiew is that the Russians might take the Donbass, but they would incur massive casualties and vehicle losses. So much so that it makes them ripe for a Ukr counterattack. looking at the war as it is going, well it seems that Russian goals are getting smaller and smaller and its only month 3 going into month 4. the Russians are going slow and taking huge losses. and the Russian economy cannot absorb the war the longer the war goes. I think the war will end this year probably in the fall or winter. of 2022 maybe going into 2023. Why do I say so,? well the months of June to Sept are months where the terrain of Ukraine in good for mechanized warfare, the ground is open weather clear, and ground is hard. and the Russians will try to use that to their advantage. Right now its slow since the ground is muddy and the Russians are mainly stuck on roads. I can see the Russians making significant gains in the months of June to Sept. then when the rains and mud comes again they will get bogged down. However I do think the Russians will overstretch and incur massive losses and get counterattacked as the Ukrainians will probably switch from infantry guerilla style supplemneted by armor to full on armor but supplemented by off road vehicles with mounted ATGMs. I think both sides will use these off road civilian vehicles and wheeled APCs in the summer months to supplement their tracked AFVs to bring in troops and to conduct maneuver warfare vs. the less maneuverable tracked AFVs destroying them with ATGMs, however I think the Ukrainains will excel better on this side, and have more of them, while the Russians only have them with their elite units. most of their troops will be mounted on tracked APCs
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  3381. well to the Ukrs Bakhmut was an important site to attrit the Russians, do as much damage to the Russians as possible. and expensive in terms of resources spent. also to make as expensive as possible noting the Ukrs fortified the crap out of Bakhmut. and for the Russians a victory at Bakhmut is one less obstacle towards controlling all of the Donbass plus in the face of their defeats at Kherson and Kharkov the Russians needed a win. so hence the offensive, plus it was given to Prigozhin to do it since the Russians military did not want to do the Bakhmut offensive since they knew it would be super costly, Prigozhin on the other hand reasoned that convicts can be used to take bakhmut since they were super expendable. the Russian public wont care if criminals were exterminated in Bakhmut. however now nearly 9 months into the battle, the battle of Bakhmut is not over, sure the Russians took 90 percent of Bakhmut but the Ukrainains are still fighitng at the edges of the city and holding the heights and the Russians have not done offensives after wagner left. and Russian regular army replaced wagner group at Bakhmut. In short, Bakhmut was a trap for the Russians to waste as much manpower and resources as possible. which the Russians took. Now if the Ukrs retake bakhmut this would be a unmitigated disaster for Putin and the Russian army politically, Prigozhin can use this to try to oust Shoigu and Garasimov. a Russian defeat at Bakhmut would be seen as an untter embarassment for Putin.
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  3462. I think the war will end in 2023. when the Russians use tactical nukes on the Ukrainians with Putin desperate to achieve a favourable peace in the face of a resurgent strong Ukrainian army while the Russian economy is collapsing due to crash in oil prices and EU not buying Russian gas and oil. before this happens, Russia captures the Donbass and declares its operation ended and decalres the territories it captured are all Russian territory due to a rigged election, and any attacks by the Ukrs into these areas is tantamount to an invasion of Russia itself and according to Russian law Russia can legally use nukes on the invaders. Russians use tactical nukes to stop a strong Ukrainian offensive which is threatening to push out the Russians int he Donbass. and dares NATO to intervene. This shocks everyone. but the djinni is out of the bottle so to speak , NATO mobilizes near war tensions between NATO and Russia. total sanctions on Russia. Markets crash hard . Russia threatens more use of tactical nukes on Ukrainian attacks into "Russian territory" in Ukraine. NATO units enter Ukraine to protect Ukrainian sovereignity. Russians bluster about using nukes on NATO units intervening in the war, NATO counters back that any use of nukes on Ukrainian territory and NATO troops will be deemed an act of war. A ceasefire is declared by both sides, USA and NATO pressure the Ukrainians into negotiations. and guarantee Ukraine's sovereighnity in its current territory, after months of negotiations peace is declared some sanctions are lifted but Ukraine does not recognize any Russian claims of its captured territory but do declare no more military actions vs. Russia unless provoked and many of the sanctions still remain. NATO troops remain in Ukriane to guarantee it from future Russian aggression. This has left very bad taste in the mouth of Europeans the EU and USA still have a total trade embargo with Russia, also no EU and USA investors invest in Russia, those who do are subject to sanctions , Russia has a similiar standing to Iran and North Korea. A new cold war starts between NATO and Russia. However US and EU investors are replaced by Chinese investors. who see a opportunity to exploit Russia's natural resources at a cheap price. and the Moscow gov. has become very reliant on Chinese investments . Chinese companies buy up controlling shares in Russian corporations. Russia has become a surrogate nation to China. In the meantime a trillion USD is poured into the reconstruction of Ukraine. Ukraine is fastracked to EU membership along with possible NATO membership while not a NATO country its protected by NATO and its economy and gov. linked very much to the EU. Russia complains and threatens but is laughed at .
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  3472. Why are the Russians still doing human wave attacks????. well here is my take on it. Russian army officers for the regular army are promoted for being ass kissers and have influence rather than ability and experience. if you have great ability and experience you are considered a threat and do not advance in rank. and forced to quit. So these officers are only good stealing and ass kissing, but zip on tactics. These aholes view the regular troops as cannon fodder, expendable. So hence that is why they are clumsy and stupid in tactics, like rushing in infantry and tank human wave style with poor coordination straight out of WW1. Also Russian military tradition...human lives are cheap been like that for a long time. basically using bodies to wear out the enemy. unchanged since WW2. They dont care about social and political repercussions, the last time they did it in WW2, they suffered to political dissent from the Russian populace. Also the war is being micromanaged from the Kremlin, right down to the XX and X level. its that bad. and the head aholes putin and his buddies know zip about military tactics except for drowning the enemy in bodies and tanks. and plastering them with artillery. Its said that in the Ukr war, 60 percent of Russian casualties come from friendly fire due to poor coordination between the ground troops, their artilery and air support. Russian air support like the artillery is mainly pray and spray. Russian artillery and air support mostly dont use precision weapons, so its pray and spray time, like Russian artillery loves to do massed just fire with some aiming and do area bombardment just like WW2. eastern front. and air support, similiar just fire en masse form a good distance and hope you hit the enemy. Mind you this is not the entirety of the Russian army. just say 75 percent of it. The elite units, the Wagner , VDV, Spetsnaz, Chechens Marines, would probably have a different command from the regular army though they probably rely on the regular army for air and artillery support , higher quality troops and officers. The wagner and Chechens have their own growing air and artillery arms. since they cant rely on the regular army to do their job properly. This results in a poorly coordinated and fractured Russian army which is competent when defending Russia but bad when invading other countries esp. one with a substantially sized army.
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  3513. Yep the longer the Russians are in this war the more the Russians retool their economy to a war footing. the more Russia will suffer after the war is over win or lose. So imagine, the Russians win or lose this war left with a dangerously militarized economy. In order to repair and retool a war economy to a civlian one post war you need massive infusions of money. and with Russia post war under strong sanctions from teh west, no western investments coming in, bankrupt, in a lot of debt with the Chinese and Indians, and in the backdrop with a possible low worldwide oil prices, Russian economic recovery post war will be really slow. and difficult. The Russians have lost their best customers the Europeans and replaced by Chinese and Indian customers who want big discounts from Russian products. to the point the Russian at best would be making little profit, or worse selling at a loss. Russia may have "won" the Ukraine war(when I say won, got to keep like 20 percent of Ukraine. during the armistice). but in the process, destroyed its own economy and made Russia a economic puppet of the Chinese and Indians. who will probably call in that debt to buy Russian corporations at bargain basement prices. and probably Russia would undergo social chaos as inflation and the price of good sky rocket and the Russian gov is essentially bankrupt. and undergoes a Venezuela type economic problem. also not surprised in the event of said Russian "victory" , Russian troops in Ukraine will not be sent home and will stay in Ukraine to pacify and garrison the newly acquired Ukrainian territories, they probably wont be paid, this will illicit, possible mutinies , rebellions. In short while teh Russians would "win" , it would be a very pyrrhic and bitter victory, and social chaos will hit the Russians hard, esp. when Putin dies. I posit that it would be best for the Russians to lose the war than actually "win" it, since in losing the war, the Russian economy will hit rock bottom fast, but will recover with normalized relations with teh west and lifting of all sanctoins, in winning, the Russians face a longer destruction of their economy and when the social chaos hits it will be worse than if they lost the war.
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  3570. Love your analysis as usual. very straight to the point and realisitc. I think the American objective here is to bleed Putin's army and economy dry. The longer Russia is embroiled in this war the longer his economy suffers. and also the Americans want Putin gone replaced by moderates. Once putin is gone permanently from the Russian political scene, then that is when the real political negotiation haggling begins. Like the end of the Korean war. the real end of the Korean war began when Stalin died in March 5, 1953, the new Soviet leadership virtually stopped giving support to China and North Kora and told them to negotiate an armistice. With no USSR support the Chinese and NOrth Koreans were forced to an armistice with the USA and the South Koreans. Very similiar here. I can see the end of the war with Putin dead, due to "natural causes" maybe he becomes too much and orders the use of nukes and they kill him since he has become too unstable. So Im not surprised war ends with the Russians withdrawing back to pre war borders. and most sanctions removed. Heck they might even put Navalny in power as a puppet while purging Putins inner circle. Later negotations can mean Russia returns back all Ukr 90s territory for the price of economic aid. and restorations of normal relations between Russia and NATO. I see this happening in 2023 or in 2024. In the meantime I think this war will be mainly frozen along the current lines. with the Russians probalby have to bring in North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine . just to keep up their manpower. its been 6 months and the Russians are already suffering from manpower shortages since no one in Russia wants to fight in Ukraine, the word is out, you fight in Ukraine its like you are committing suicide and probably not get paid at all or not paid the correct amount as offered. North Koreans are super cheap manpower. .
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  3573. The USA rebounded back hard in the 80s. interestingly when the oil prices crashed to 30 USD in 1986, from its peak 140 USD in 1980, the USSR collapsed 4 years later in 1990. since its economy was reliant on oil and gas exports and it had a very inefficient communist central command economy opposed to capitalism which everything revolved around gov. spending. and the USSR economy and gov. was very much reliant on export of resources to western europe and other nations. It was overspending beyond its means to maintain its military to confront the west and to support the economies of her allies . Also the Soviet economy along with her allies economies were closed off to the rest of the world so there was very little trade in finished goods with the west. The Collapse of the Soviet economy led to the collapse of the USSR. Same will happen to Russia due to the war in Ukraine due to collapse of oil prices in 2023 due to the global economic recession along with sanctions. and continuing high cost of the war in Ukraine. and the Soviet GDP peak in 1989 was 2.5 trillion USD translated to 2022 goes to 5.89 trillion USD in 2022 money. Russia's current GDP is 1.48 trillion USD. It took 4 years for the USSR economy to collapse due to low oil prices. The RUssian economy is essentially cut off from most regular trade with the west. and it has 4 times less GDP than the USSR., along with the high cost of maintaining the war in Ukraine , I can see the Russian economy collapsing in times of low oil prices around 2 years. While its not looking good for all world economies Russia is esp. vulnerable due to sanctions and war costs. along with its relaince on high oil prices.
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  3634. Manpower... true the Russians have the advantage in manpower 10-1 if you draw on the entire Russian popualtion as compared to the Ukrs. however the Ukrs have the home field advantage, shorter supply lines , a lot better management of logsitics, and the Ukrs mobilized at the start of hte war while teh Russians well took them 8 months into the war to mobilize. Also look at logistics, Russian logistics as it is in Ukraine cannot really handle hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, whenenver they throw in masses of troops, these units fall apart in the face of Ukrs offensives. why?, yah you thrown in thousands of men vehicles into the fight, however if your logistical system cannot support it, the army will suffer from bad supply issues and shortagees, in essentials like ammo and fuel, and when that happens and your enemy goes ont he offensive you get things like the Russian disasters at Kiev and Kharkov. where you get lots of abandoned Russian vehicles and Russian troops running away even leaving their weapons, also this leads in to soldier morale training quality. Ukrainians, well motivated high morale, Russians, apatheitc, poorly motivated, poor morale. Training: Similiar with the Ukrs having better overall. Leadership, Ukrs have a better overall leadership overall. Equipment. Ukrs troops are generally better equippped than their Russian counterparts due to massive aid from NATO countries and and their allies, esp. the USA. also look at night vision gear, personal drones, outiside Russian elite units(Spetsnaz, core wagner, VDV) Russian troops hafe a severe shortage of these. Also tactics used. these days Russians like to do WW1 style human wave attacks. supported by massed area blanket artillery fire and air support who mostly does pray and spray attacks from a distance since they are terrified of Ukrs SAMs. Ukrs like to do maneuver warfre, hit and run attacks, ambushes. and not do heady on costly ww1 style attacks. Ukrs like to target Russian logistics with missles and artillery as well as command centers cut off the head first before attracks.
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  3657. I think the most pirvotal event in the war is the USA presidental elections of 2024. Putin is counting on anti Ukrainian elements of the US rep party to win the US elections. and I expect Putin to escalate this war in 2024 so that he tries to influence US voters and try to scare them to elect a Pro Peace USA pres. The escalation will include the use of Chemical weapons on the battlefield, moving Russian nukes around and doing more nuclear threat rhetorics and nuke tests. This might result in war jitters and possibly crash the US stock markets hard, which results in a recession in 2024. and that is the worse thing that can happen in a US elections cycle having a US economic recession happen during the year of US presidential elections. Putin will do anything to influence the outcome of the US elections. If a Pro Ukraine US pres. wins 2024, Putin will get even more desperate even with Chinese military support and probably order the use of nukes in 2025 to end the war in his favour, and I think that will be Putin's downfall. I think his own people will not only refuse the order but also isolate him from power and decision making. maybe even kill him. I think peace will come in 2025. with a total withdrawal from Ukraine by Russian forces, putting all the blame on Putin. and asking the west for financial aid and support to stave off Russian economic collapse as Russia slides into political and economic chaos. I think in the aftermath after this war is over. will be massive. the geopolitical face of the world will be signficantly affected similiar to the end of the Gulf war in 91 with a new world order. I think Xinping will not get a 4th term in fact , he might even be replaced during his term and replaced with a pro west Chinese leader. the Pro Russian leaders of Hungary , and Croatia will be replaced after the next elections. A massive stock market boom in 2025, I think a massve stock market crash in 2024 due to WW3 fears and a massive post war vicotry boom in 2025. Russia will have a decade long unrest stretching even into the 2030s. and there will vbe a low level civil war, as the new Russian gov. tries to take control of the Russian fed from armed groups. of ultranationalists to secessionists. Russia will be a geopolitical head ache for a decade or two to come after this war is over. and a great game in paticular for USA/NATO, China, Turkey etc. who wiill want to influence politics within the Russian fed for resource gain.
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  3678. I predict after this war is over, Russia will go back to the 90s on steroids. Russian oligarchs backed up by PMCs will rule Russia through their puppet gov. officials, the Russian army will be a joke a shell of its formal self. the real miltiary power of Russia will be the PMCs. So Imagine a Russia with a Russian ruble in hyperinflation, the Russian currency has unofficially dollarized since no one accepts the Russian ruble. and would rather accept USD, EUros, crypto gold and even barter trade. Russia becomes a failed narco state. with a weak corrupt as hell Moscow gov and Russian military and Oligarchs and criminal gangs monopolize the economy and resources of Russia and they use their PMCs and influence in the Russian gov to impose their will. Russia becomes like an African nation as the name of the game is resource extraction to export to other countries along with the USA and China treating Russia as the new great game, vying for influence in the country for its resources. Also Russia the narco state, due to a much weaker Russia gov control, criminal gangs both foreign and domestic run amuck, the country becomes a source for smuggling of all kinds esp. military grade weapons and narcotics to the west. heck not surpirsed if they start growing opium , and other narcotics sources, as well as industrial scale manufacture and processing of narcotics for sale in the west. Not even surprised if you have piracy as criminal gangs use Russian ports as bases for piracy in the Baltic , North Atlantic , Caspian seas. Yep Russia in time of troubles 2.0 will look like an African country, maybe like the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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  3731. well the problem why the Russians seem to be attacking low value targets and jumping up and down like monkeys while suffering massive casualties in the process is a combination of poor Soviet style combat doctrine, poor Soviet style Russian command and control, Russian generals with no imagination in tactics and strategy and of course low regard for casualties. Heck not surprised when Russian upper echelon military leadership are chosen for their loyalty and kiss ass abiliyt rather than real combat ability.k and intellect. also the Russians cannot keep up thsi kind of stupid strategy for long, yah they can jump up and down crowing about their victories say in taking a town of 10K inhabitants and show it on media as important and critical and say the Ukrainians are going to collapse any day now in the short term its feasable but if its 1-2 years of this shit and the Russians are still taking villages and towns with massive casualties and the Ukrainians have not broken and the map has not changed much, the Russian people will not stand for this. Heck the Russian economy cant even support this war for long as the war is costing 400 mil to 1 billion USD a day just to maintain the war, not counting on production of new weapons, recruiting etc. and analysts have estimated the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs will be running out by late 2025 and into 2026. I think the Russian economy will start warping and going into hyperinflation mode by late 2025. and 2026 will be the year the Ukrainains finally get a definite upper hand on the Russian military in ukraine winning major battles probably not seen since late 2022.
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  3735. I think the initial first phase of operation downfall , the invasion of Kyushu wouuld be so bloody and protracted the USA would most likely just blockade the islands of Honshu Hokkaido and Shikoku. blockade, round the clock daily bombings, and use of more nukes on them, I think the US will not only fire bomb the cities, but start fire bombing the forests and rice fields, maybe even use chemical defoilants, on rice fields, sinking of fishing vessels, the war will end with probably a Japanese surrender due to massive famines but this would not happen, for the next say 3-5 years, by that time, the Soviets would have invaded Hokkaido, Japanese gov. will really be forced to surrender with the fear of Soviet invasion of Honshu. You probably would have a quarter of the Japanese civilian population dead from disease starvation , etc. USSR would probably annex Hokkaido turning it into a Soviet oblast. deport all japanese from its territory. with probably a few hundred thousand US casualties, the Japanese home islands would be so devastated the USA would probably spend a bit more resources to fix Japan , rebuild more of its infrastructure etc. USA would probably execute a bit more of Japanese war criminals due to the extension of the war. USA would probably give Japan self gov. at a later period and US military forces would have a bit bigger deployment noting substantial Soviet military forces are just a short distance away in Hokkaido. the SLDF would actually be stronger in thsi what if due to facing Soviet forces off the Shimonseki straights
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  3757. My view, Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, west responds: 1. Total economic embargo on Russia, Russia is now considered a terrorist state and anyone else who trades with it gets the same sanctions. 2. NATO mobilizes , NATO troops enter Ukraine. and demand to the Russians any more nuke use, or attacks on NATO troops personel, in Ukraine or elsewhere will result in war with NATO. Also US 6th fleet with NATO ships largest of which are the UK and French elements enter the black sea, and establish a safety cordon to Odessa, Near WW3 confrontation between NATO and Russia. However Ukraine offensives stop, there is a ceasefire and peace talks. Russians stop bombing and missling Ukraine itself and NATO troops stay well away from the Russian troops and protect the major cities but there is still fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the front line. USA EU pressure Ukraine to stop offensives vs. the Russians, Russians however do major offensives vs. the Ukrainians which fail badly. war truelly ends when Putin dies. Power struggle in the Kremlin just like the ned of hte Korean war peace talks but the fighitng itself ends. and in the end , Russians totally withdrew back to the 91 borders Crime is abandoned by Russian troops , in exchange for total lifting of all sanctions vs. Russia, normalizaiton of relations betwen Russia and the west. as well as well as a massive economic aid package, also the sweeten the pot the Russians allow extradition of war criminals to stand trial in the Hague. for war crimes. several hundred billion USD reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia while saved from economic collapse by the USA and EU along with a democratic reformist gov pro west is suffering from political and economic chaos with Chinese and Turkish supported secessionist groups rising in east of the Urals and in the Caucasus. downwards slide for a decade or near civil war. after that Russia stabilizes however loses 50 percent of its territory to secession but comes out economically stable democratic robust. with a pro west reformist stable demoratic gov. the new former Russian independent republics are Turkish or Chinese puppets with authoritarian govs. effects on the world, markets massively crash , Nasdaq 100 crashes to 6K pts before being rescued by a massive QE by the US FED. BTC bitcoin crashes to 9K USD. then inflation rises to 20-30 percent and the US FED does a drastic rasising of the interest rates to 20-30 percent and a QT which crashes the markets more after a massive rally due to the death of Putin and peace in Ukraine.
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  3825. On the flip side, after the war ends with Putin getting to keep 20 percent of Ukraine, the Russians will have a very hard time rebuilding their army and economy after the war, as Russia faces bad inflation, the sanctions lifting is slow. also western investors not going back to Russia plus the hundreds of theousands of Russian war veterans going home is causing high crime rates and other social problems as Russia changes from a war to a civilian economy , the veterans face high unemploymenbt and hyperinflation. and the Russians will feel that they have not won the war. and that the war was about protecting Putin's regime. and not about the Russian people. I think Putin will face widespread unrest and he will respond with an iron hand, more repression martial law and purges of oligarchs and elites blaming them for the failures of the war. and there are a lot of PMCs private military companies which are the private armies of the Oligarchs and elites, if Putin turns on his elites, they have their own military forces to protect themselves from a purge. and That will result in civil war, about 10 years after the war ends. You will have Russia becoming Syria 2.0 Meanwhile Ukraine in 10 years has rebuilt its economy infrastructure, restructured and rebuilt and reorganized its army along NATO lines. removing the Soviet with a NATO combat doctrine. lots of western aid and investment go into Ukraine. and also Ukraine is supporting Russian anti gov groups ranging from disgruntled elites to criminal groups to secessionists. Just to destabilize Russia so that it slows down Russian rebuild of its economy and military. The new Ukrainian gov. is very vengeful with an eye to regain back its lost territories and a policy to undermine Russia. and its proven they have the strong capability to do so with the Ukrainian intelligence services having extensive networks within Russia, and after the war there will be a lot of anti Putin anti gov sympathizers in Russia. the Ukrainians of course will help aided by the USA and allied intel services. and if Russia goes into civil war, Ukraine will be a major player in the civil war strongly supporting Russian anti government groups. and when the Russians are weak enough, the Ukrainians will move fast and regain all of its lost territories. the Russian civil war will probably last a decade or more. and Russia will break up into several new nations. The civil war will be a great game between USA/Ukraine, China and Turkey. I can see China support secessionists in the Russian siberia and Far East and form several Puppet governments there and having Chinese troops occupying Russian siberia and far east under the guise of peace keeping troops and later turn these areas into special Chinese automous regions which is basically being annexed by China just like Xinjiang and Tibet. Turkey probably supports the froming of new nations in the Russian caucasus namely Chechnya and Dagestan. stations Turkish peace keeping troops, Turkey becomes the dominant power in the Caucasus.
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  3870. anyways the Russians while weaker than they are a year ago is still very formidable they have now changed their tactics from a tank heavy manuever force to infantry heavy assault for Strosstrupen 1918 type tactics, with constant attacks of small group of Russian assault infantry well equipped with RPGs, RPO Schmells, Kord machineguns, AGS-17 auto grenade launchers, supported by 1-2 tanks and IFVs, the Russians are keeping their tanks back as infantry support. which is in adopt to the Ukrainians strategy of well fortified trenches and positions. and this is backed up by massive Russian artillery support with mulitiple TOS fuel air explosive missles and strong air support with SU-25s by night, Su-35s by day. still doing pray and spray. but effective also dropping fuel air explosives. napalm and other goodies. So the Russians are gettinig their act together. The Rusisans are mainly assaulting with their newly mobilized troops supported by VDV and Spetsnaz to exploit breakthrus and do night recon(sometimes in force), drone recon is very poor for the Russians and Wagner penal troops are still used to do recon in force to probe Ukrainian defense lines first before the real blow comes in . Ukrainians know this and is adopting to this strategy what the Ukrs forces need right now are more heavy NATO weapons to come int, more artillery, ATACMS, HMARS, GLSDB , drones, Mark 19s, , heck the Ukrainians will need cluster muniitions for their missles and artillery to counter the Russian strosstruppen tactics.
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  3879. yah the Russians are so desperate they are grasping at anything they can find , the stalemate is actually bad for the Russians, since their economy is getting more kaput the longer the war goes, the Ukrainains have the backing of the USA, so its economy is kept alive by the USA and her allies. who btw, are 40X bigger than the Russian GDP combined. its not the manpower advantage of the Russians , its the economy. The longer the war goes, the more the sanctions bite hard, the more frayed the Russian economy is, no one wants to buy the Russian ruble so the gov has to spends lots of money just to shore up its currency. Russians are running out of cash, and Russian economists have forecast officially Russian economy can hold out until 2025. Not surprised if China is lending out lots of monies to the Russians to help prop up their economy. but in the end, China will want the monies repaid, and CHina will get to control a post war Russian economy, making Russia just another Chinese client state. A Biden win in 2024 will mean 4 more years of war which the Russian economy cannot afford. I think this war will end in 2025 or in 2026 when the Russians cut their losses retire Putin and withdraw from Ukraine totally including Crimea. in return Russians get all the sanctions lifted plus relations are normalized with the west and possibly some economic aid to prop up the Russian economy from total collapse. Ukraine also gets a formal peace treaty with Russia which also recognizes Ukraine's right to join NATO and the EU. Post war results: Russia does not collapse into civil war but goes into a long period of depressed economy social and political disorder simliar to the 90s but worse. this time, you have a very weak Russian army and gov. few foreign investors, and much ore crazy angry unpaid war veterans. the real power in post war Russia will be the oligarchs and Mafiya, and their PMCs, Russian oblasts and republics will have a bit more say in how to govern their areas and probably have their own militaries, Russia effectively becomes a massive decentralized narco state. with a weak Moscow gov and army controlled by Oligarchs. and is a battleground of political and economic influence between teh USA and China.
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  3887. also what is happening is a Myanmar is a counter move vs. Putin, Myanmar gov is pro Russia and China. , currently its being overthrown. by rebels with covert western help. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine and the collapse of Putin will have have massive geopolitical effects which results in first loss of support and confusion in the far right and far left groups around the world that Russia has been supporting. (probably later financed by China). world realignment with the USA. Pro Russian regimes in Belarus, Georgia fall replaced by Pro USA ones. Possible fall of the Maduro gov in Venezuela. Far right factions in teh republican party fall as their funding with Putin gone and Trump having lost the elections of 2024. Not surpirsed the Republican party is taken over by more pragmatic moderates. Not suprised if China and Iran realigns, the Xinping regime is not given ends with the third term and a new pro west moderate Chinese gov takes over, same with Iran. the former USSR nations of the CSIS realign with the USA and China. The populist pro Putin govs in Hungary , Slovakia , netherlands, Serbia fall. Orban goes into retirement, probably faced wtih numerous criminal charges. in the next 20 years, Ukraine, Moldova , Georgia, Belarus are all accepted into the EU and NATO, Armenia is accepted into the EU. Russian federation more or less remains the same does not collapse but is wracked with political social and economic instability for a decade. or more. Russian federation becomes the next geopolitical hotspot as USA and China battle for influence in the new great game. Russia is important due its resources, and strategic location. I think what will happen to Russia is taht it essentially becomes an oligarch controlled state with a weak Moscow gov and Russian military where the real power are hte oligarchs and their PMCs. Russian leaders are puppets of the oligarchs and the oligharchs make sure no one like Putin ever comes ot power again. The law and order is loose in the new Russia where anything goes and Russia essentially becomes a the biggest Narco state in the world, where it becomes the world cener of illegal narcotics manufacturing , criminal gang cartel activity, refugee smuggling to Europe etc.
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  3924. its stalemate, weber is generalizing. Does not take into account, poor training and morale of hte Russians, and the high morale of the Ukrainians. also poor leadership, poor Russian combat doctrine, along with political instability, the Russians did improve their logistics , tactics etc. I heard Putin was micromanaging this war heavilly right down to the brigade level until late last year when he appointed Garasimov as head of the war in Ukraine and gave him almost total freedom in decision making and actually stepped back from the micromanagement and delegated it to Garasimov. Overall I think the war is a stalemate. when Weber says winning, like the Russians can still walk out of this war control like 20 percent of Ukraine and declare victory. For the Russians or Putin, regime survival and the end of this war is considered a victory. its not total control of Ukraine, I dont think the Russians will ever achieve that one unless they use multiple nukes and devastate ukraine. So yes the Russians improved substantially in terms of command and control. the Russians generals were given freedom to do as they wish, , coordination with the Russian air force better now. However what is not improved and probably cannot be improved is the poor traiining of the regular Russian soldiers esp. the newly mobilized troops who are still given short basic training then thrown in Ukraine and made to learn as you go. Leadership is still poor in the Russian army top to bottom, morale still poor. Logistics still poor , Russian units seem to suffer from ammo shortages.
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  4007. Im not surpised the Chinese may have told the Americans on what Russia was planning to do, the Chinese have done this before when the Russians in 2007 approached the Chinese and told them that they will both sell off the USA debts that they were holding basically trying to smash the USA economy while the US was suffering an economic meltdown. The Chinese were horrified and instead told the Americans on what the Russians were planning to do. And the CHinese were probably horrified on what the Russians will do and secretly told the Americans. that basically confirmed what the USA has suspected for months. So the Chinese now are basically setting up the Russians for another backstab. I think the goal of the Chinese is to keep a very weakened Putin in power and a Russia that is significnatly eocnomically and militarilly weakened so it can turn Russia into a Chinese puppet state with a puppet stable gov. that the Chinese can control to serve as both a buffer distraction to the USA and a cheappo resource economic exploit for Chinese corporations. Just like North Korea. However China is also prepared to take advantage if Russia goes into civil war where it will support Russian secessionists to break up Russia so the Chinese can establish mulitiple puppet states. either way. I think Russia goes into civil war after this war is over and becomes a great game for China and USA as Russia resembles China in the 1920s, with no central gov or a very weak one and warlords ruling the country.
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  4010. I dont think the Russians can conventionally turn things around , in 7 months of war nearly 8 months , their army has degraded severely, to the point they seem to be only defending , the Russians cannot do major offensives anymore, the last one they did was in the Donbass in Summer of 2022 which they expended millions of rounds of artillery and lost thousands of men in the process, and they did capture hundreds of kilometers of territory from the Ukrainians advancing through heavilly fortified Ukr positions but it was very costly, and now the Russian have lost a lot of their gains during that summer offensive of 2022 with the lost of Izyum and Lyman. in a span of a month with a bunch of Russian units destroyed or heavilly mauled like the 1st GTA. It is not looking good for the Russians. and the Ukr army is gettting better and stronger, with better training, of mobilized reserves high morale, lots of weapons from NATO and captured Russian AFVs. the Ukrs forces are actually counterattacking and retaking thousands of KMs of lost territory, the Russians are just retreating to avoid being encircled and leaving lots of their vehicles and equipment behind along with their dead which they abandon. The state of the Russian army is so bad and with mobilization the forced draftees aer so poorly trained and have low morale and many are not even physically fit for combat that I cant see them actually doing a proper operational major miltiary offensive even with the Russians still having a lot of weapons and vehicles to use. Also Russian logistics have not really improved and have actually gotten worse with the Ukrainians targetting their ammo dumps , supply lines. logistical hubs, and also the economy, and the Russian gov lack funds so bad and has poor management of logistics and corruption that they cant even properly equip their forced drafted conscripts. So I predict the Russians will use multiple tac nukes to stop a major Ukrainian offensive to stop them from inflicting another major defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine probably a catastrophic one which can collapse the Russian army in Ukraine. I think this will be done in the winter of 2022 to 2023, the Russians are poorly equipped to deal with winter as they are low in winter gear, many of the forced draftees have to bring their own winter clothes. and this coming winter will be some of the coldest in Euro history, Europe in 2022 had some of the most hottest summers in recorded history. so when you have very hot summers you will have very bad winters. and it can get as cold as -10 to -15 C in Southern Ukraine. I think it might even go to -20 C or even -25 C thsi winter in Southern Ukraine. I can see thousands of Russian casualties. from exposure and frostbite. WHiel the Ukrs are much better prepared for winter than the Russians, with massive aid from NATO. I can see a Ukrs major winter counteroffensive that is reminiscent of the Finnish winter war of 1940. Its stalingrad 2.0 for the Russians with them playing the Germans. Troops not properly equipped for a bad winter cannot really fight. I expect the Ukrs to attack at the heart of winter when the Russians least expect them to attack. And the Russians do not really have their arctic troops anymore, many of them got killed fighting in the past months in Ukraine. So there goes that winter war training for the Russians. this winter will be a TOTAL DISASTER for the Russians, enough for Putin to order the use of tac nukes.
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  4027. I dont see a settlement happening probably at the earliest 2025. 1 year of war, both sides still have a lot of fight left in them, both sides are strong enough to want more war to achieve their aims and are not letting up. I can see the war being a very bloody brutal back and forth centered on the Donbass and the South. Russia can have another go at Kiev and Kharkov but that would be foolish. Russia is already having a hard time just trying to take the Donbass. I can see Putin calling for negotiations if he takes all of the Donbass , probably if he takes Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. but the Ukrainians will ignore this and keep on fighting. However on the strategic side, 2023 will see more back and forth with the Ukrainians with strong NATO and allied backing trying to win the war before the 2024 US elections occurs. Putin will hang on until the results of the 2024 elections, and will do his utmost to influence the US 2024 presidential elections which I think will be pivotal to this war, I think Putin will escalate in 2024 with teh use of chemical weapons, start moving his nukes around, even doing Nuke tests near Ukraine, and doing provocative incidents with NATO to get a feeling of Impending WW3 up in the air, so Putin plans to scare the US stock markets to a crash so hard to cause a recession. and if a recession occcurs during the US 2024 elections, it will have a critical impact on it. Putin wants a Pro Peace US president to win the elections. if that happens, then the Pro Peace US pres. can stop aid to Ukraine and force to Ukraine to negotiate with Russia with the Russians having the advantage. Barring that if a Pro Ukraine US pres. wins in 2024, Putin will get even more desperate, possibly escalate even more that he most probably order the use of nukes in Ukraine to finish the war once and for all , I think this will be Putin's downfall, his own people will probably remove him from power, and that is when peace will happen, that is when negotiations will start just like when Stalin died, in 1953, was when the USSR pressured the Chinese and NOrth Koreans to do peace negotiations with the UN and South Koreans.
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  4037. so I tink this war will end by summer of 2022 probably mid to late summer looking at how the first month alone was really disastrous for hte Russian invading army. The more months this war lasts, much more doisastrous this is for the Russian army, they simply cannot fix the mess they are in and I have no doubt they are desperately trying to do it but its very hard, they literally have to probably step back and totally reform their army which can take years to do. So they are stuck with a totally dysfuctional army fighting a very determined well armed enemy. shoving thousands more troops into the meatgrinder wont solve it you just get more casusalties, the Ukrainians have many millions of men and women on reserve who are very motivated to fight. Even if Russia goes on a war footing, the Russians will not be willing to die for a klepto Russian oligarchy in fact die with stupid battlefield leadership and logistics. I dont think the Russians will use Chems and Nukes since the cost to the Russians will be great. these will just massive increasely and itghten the sanctions on the Russians and give impetus to provide even more deadly military hardware to the Ukrainians. who will not stop fighting. and probably fight harder. So my opinioin war ends sometime in Summer of 2022 withi the Russians keeping control of the Donbass. Ukraine getting admitted to the EU. sanctions mostly lifted from Russia. 50K Russians dead, 150K wounded. Ukrainians suffer around 25K dead, 100K wounded. thousands of civilians dead and wounded. trillion dollar marshal plan from USA and EU to rebuild Ukraine. Russia depressed economy. back to business. Putin purges his military and gov. however dies within 5 years. from supposed natural causes. political and economic chaos in Russia, millions of Russian immigrate out of Russia. Sino Russia relations become closer, as China props up the Russian economy buys up Russian companies and partners with them. Belarus kicks out Lukashenko civilian democratically elected gov takes power, Belarus joins the EU. Moldova joins the EU. so does Kosovo.and Georgia.
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  4039. While I dont think Japan would have gone for New Zealand since they were really overextended in the Pacific, Japan would try to go for India. It will push into India but I think would get defeated and pushed back, However they would still attempt this. Also I think the Japanese would conquer China or collapse the KMT Chinese as it planned starting 1942. However the Japanese would still not be able to conquer China as the Japanese would just have a much bigger territory to pacify , the Japanese by 1941 had conquered 25 percent of China however only pacificed 10 percent of that territory due to the Japanese not having enough manpower and logistics to do so faced with a hostile population . The Japanese by 1945 would have collapsed the KMT (Chiang kai Shek fleeing to India, or USSR. ) however would be faced with a massive task of pacifying their supposed conquered territories, the Chinese would still continue to fight now , the Chinese would switch to the CCP. I dont think the Japanese would have invaded the USSR, since 1. it was still preoccupied with China and digesting its conquests. 2. The Soviets were still viewed with fear by the japanese military hence its continuing large army deployment in Manchuria . 3. There is nothing for the Soviets to gain by conquering Soviet territory, they will get nothing but forests and bears and more snow with little natural resources. The Soviets at this time have not developed the oil resources of Siberia and for Japan oil and steel are the most important resources to build up its military . Also Im not surprised after armistice with teh Germans , the Soviets start equipping the Chinese commies with more weapons and equipment making it much harder for the Japanese to pacify China. China becomes a sinkhole for japanese manpower and resources.
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  4069. my prediction: Russian offensive in the Donbass will fail catastrophically. A Ukr counteroffensive will shatter the Russians in the Donbass and threaten to push them out of Ukr into Russia. Russians in their desperation use massive amounts of chemical weapons on the Ukrainians in the battlefield and in Mariupol, this is done to stop the Ukrainian offensive and provide time and breathing space for the Russians to bring in their emergency conscipt reserves to man their positions in the Donbass. Then the Russians request for a ceasefire and negotiate. with the Russians threatening more use of chemical weapons and possible nukes in the Ukrainians continue their offensive into "Russian Land" , the Russians declare whatever territory they captured to be Russian land. In the negotiations, Russians withdraw from most of ukraine but annex eastern Donbass. and parts of southern Ukraine bordering Crimea to insure water supply to the Crimea. Ukraine does not recognize any Russian conquests including Crimea. Both sides declare victory. War ends in Summer of 2022. Ukraine shortly after the war gains EU membership. many sanctions are taken off Russia but the massive use of chemical weapons by the Russians not seen since end of WW1 more than 100 years ago. has made Russia a pariah state in the eyes of Europeans. most Western investments in Russia do not return go to Ukraine instead, Ukraine gets a massive trillion dollar reconstruction aid Ukraine economy booms. The Europeans start getting their gas resources from other sources othern than Russia, gas fields in Ukraine are massively developed as an alternative to Russia. putin dies in 2022. natural causes supposedly. Belarus klicks out Lukashenko and becomes a democratic country in 2023 petitions to join the EU. Economic and poltical chaos in Russia, millions of Russians emigrate out of Russia. China begins taking over the Russian economy and economic inroads into Central asia and the Caucasus. informal strong Sino Russian alliance. with Russian as a Chinese economic vassal. Western far right disrupted with loss of funding from Russia. Trump loses the 2024 elections. Serbia still does not join the EU.
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  4243. well if I were trump I would look at it like this: I made a deal with putin , he gives me billions of USD to get me nominated by the Rep party essentially bribing the Rep party through lobbies and super pacs. OK will honor my end of the deal which probably means as they agreed before the elections that I, Trump will lift all sanctions on Russia, stop supplying Ukraine with monetary aid and weapons, also unfreeze all assets of the Russians in western banks. and presure the Ukrainians to be a puppet of the Russians, and reduce the size of their miltiary and disarm However Upon becoming Pres. Trump realizes the he has the Russians over the barrell, also it is in his best interest to preserve the Ukrainians as a strong buffer vs. the Russians plus with the massive hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction money, him and his friends can make a LOT of money from Ukraine's reconstruction, also Trump does not want to piss off the US military industrial complex since the USA military companies are making a LOT of money with the Ukraine war selling weapons to Ukraine(with the US gov paying for it). Also Trump does not want to piss off powerful people in the US gov and military if they let Russians get everything they want with Ukraine. It is in the best interest of the Americans to see a much weakened Russia with Putin preferrably out of power. but with Russia not in civil war. So leaving Putin in power until a strong Russian leader can be found to replace him is much preferrable , USA does not want civil war in Russia. From what I hear, Putin got really pissed off at Trump from that Election day phone call. That putin will not get all he wants, from what I hear the most the Russians will get is a armistice where the war stops at the line of control for both sides. Ukraine does not get NATO or EU membership. However NATO and UN troops will be stationed at the lines of contact between Russian and Ukraine to prevent the breaking of the armistice. No USA troops will be involved. however any attack on these peacekeeping troops will be considered an act of war on NATO. Ukraine is allowed sovereighnity, Zelensky stays in office, and Ukraine has the right to rebuild and reform its military in any way it wants. and the lifting of all sanctions on Russia and unfreezing of Russian assets is conditional in the Russians accepting the armistice. If the Russians do not accept the terms of armistice, then USA will continue to aid Ukraine and possibly give more weapons to ukraine and add sanctions ont he Russians. Yep , I think Putin is probably heavy with rage at being backstabbed by Trump in the business deal , but that is what trump does when he has enough leverage on his business partner to safely swindle him or her. in a deal with little to no repercussions. That is why the Russians showed naked pictures of melania in RT, and denied the phone call with trump. Musk is sort of working independent of Trump and trying to influence Ukraine's allies in Europe to vote for their far right parties, I think at the behest of Moscow. Musk is in it for himself having been paid a lot of money by the Russians and Musk also has a lot of factories in China, so the Chinese are threatening him in that regard. I think Putin and Musk will probably break with each other due to this.
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  4251. Well Taiwan already has very good defenses vs. invasion, their beaches they have been preparing since 1949. Their beaches can easilly be festooned with tank traps and mined , lots of bunkers and emplacements all over the island, most Taiwan males of fighting age have some military training. Taiwanese army is well trained, have modern weapons esp. Javelins. tanks are 70s and 80s vintage , planes are US and French Mirage 2000s and F-16s. with latest upgrades. Navy wise well nothing compared to the Chinese navy . And it takes about 2 hours to reach Taiwan from the mainland by boat during that time the invasion fleet is getting hit by Taiwanese ASMs cruise missles, air strikes. if they manage to get to the beaches they are going to run into fortified beach emplacements. heavy fire from entrenched Taiwanese troops. Also the air and sea will be heavilly contested by the USN and Taiwanese navies and air forces. It will be a military disaster for China. even worse than the Sino Vietnam war of 1979. In fact I would say the Chinese military disaster would be comparable to their failed invasion of the Kinmen Islands in 1949. where a failed Chinese invasion of Kinmen islands resulted in 99 percent loss of the Chinese invasion force. the Chinese invasion force who manage to get back to the mainland managed to do so in a few boats and rafts. The same thing can happen if the Chinese invade. yah how can you go back to the mainland if all your ships are sunk. and your planes shot down. if you swim most likely you are kaput.
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  4376. well my view is that there is no revolution in Ukraine, Ukrainians themselves know what a trump victoiry is and many are tired of the war, however when faced with it and probably understand what Zelensky had to deal with, yah while I dont think there will be a revolution, Zelensky will step down or lose the next elections. and the gov that takes over while hating Russia a lot is pragmatic. and proceeds to rebuild and rearm Ukraine. Meanwhile Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD from the USA and EU to rebuild while trump and his buddies get the lions share of the contract to rebuild Ukraine. yes a Korean style dmz seperating Ukraine and Russia manned by UN troops. Meanwhile Russia has taken 25 percent of Ukraine and annexed it however its mostly ruins, the rebuild will cost Russia hundreds of billions of USD somethign that it can ill afford and no help is coming to Russia financially for it. Russian economy while the sanctions are all lifted is still in the shitter. Not surprised its further damaged by a possible future collapse of oil prices. but in Putin's mind he won since he got out of the war with his regime intact and keeping 25 percent of Ukraine despite suffering what possibly by the time peace happens 1 million casualties. and most of its reserve weaponry expended , its economy dangerouly on war footing and the Europeans now buying oil and gas from other sources, the EU is mostly still hostile to Russia and the EU and European NATO members rearm to face a possible resurgent Russian threat. in the meanwhile helping rebuild and rearm Ukraine. to serve as a bulwark vs. Russia. Ukraine of course is prohibited to become a member of NATO and EU but NATO and EU are much helping it. Russia slowly rebuilds and rearms. and with the heavy damage its armed forces suffered and trauma from barely "winning" the Ukraine war, I dont think Putin will try to attack Ukraine or anyone else again. in the next 20 years(by that time Putin hopefully goes to the afterlife dante's inferno).
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  4394. well I think Russia will not be defeated by militarily pushing them out by teh Ukrs. Russia will be defeated with an economic collapse. The longer the war goes , the weaker the Russian economy gets, and when the global recession/depression hits in 2023, Oil prices will crash hard , and when that happens, the Russian economy will go into depression and will probably collapse, Russian economy under sanctions these days relies heavilly on oil and gas imports and high oil and gas prices. when the oil and gas prices collapse in a global depression/recession caused by a recession in the USA due to the fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, oil prices will collapse due to really lowered demand. Russia turns into Venezuela 2.0. and in so doing cannot finance the war, which by 2023 has turned into a WW1 Iran Iraq war style stalemate, war of attrition World war one with 1960s to 2022 military technology. Russian manpower and firepower superiority vs. Ukrainian determination and skill and massive NATO EU financial and military support. Ukraine has millions of reserves it can call up. The stalemate will center on the eastern and Southern Ukraine. The longer the war goes Russia will find it increasingly more difficult to fund the war, this causes logistical problems, I dont think Russia will mobilize for fears of causing internal unrest. Russia's so called military operation its version of limited war will turn into military and economic attrition. with both sides unwilling to compromise until they achieve their war aims for both leaders their political careers and possibly even their lives are at stake. While the Russians have huge number of men and weapons to call to the table,the Ukrainians have a massive economic backing from USA, the EU and their allies. as well as massive sanctions placed to the Russians. The Russians are in a economic time limit to win the war before oil and gas prices collapse therefore seriously undermining their ability to fund the war and its all about the economy. In this scenario I think the Russians will lose the war when their economy starts to collapse probably by mid to late 2023. Massive unrest in Russia due to food shortages caused by massive uncontrolled inflation, lack of funds, and increased sanctions from the west. not only will the Russian economy suffer from the crashed oil prices, but also the Europeans esp. the Germans have significantly stopped buying oil and natural gas from the Russians making the situation worse. As said earlier, Russia becomes Venezuela/Sri Lanka 2.0. . All these leads to increased repression, martial law which leads to more unrest, leads to political instability. Not surprised Putin and his closest all get purged. New gov. takes over in Moscow blames Putin for all their problems and calls for peace talks armistice. All this political and economic chaos causes logistical problems for the Russian army in Ukraine which by this time is in poor shape due to war weariness and very bad logistical problems. Ukrainians probably launch successful offensives which recapture huge swathes of Ukrainian territory which further exacerbates the situation for Russia. which will probably be the catalyst for Putin to be purged. War ends with Putin gone new Russian gov. in an armistice and after peace talks orders withdrawal of the Russian army back to Russia but keeping Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are sacrificed. the withdrawal is messy. and very poorly planned. reminiscent of the Russian army withdrawal from Chechnya at tjhe end of hte first chechen war, many Russian troops have to walk back to Russia many weapons are left in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers dont even go back to Russia but try to defect to the Western Europe claiming political asylum. Lots of looting and rape by the retreating Russian army who are joined by Pro Russian Ukr civilians. Also the Ukrainians have to fight Russian soldiers who have become bandits. Lots of chaos also on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine as law and order there collapses with drunk crazy retreated Russian soldiers looting and raping and becoming bandits. Russian army is deployed to regain order in Belgorod and the Russian border areas to Ukraine.
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  4415. also another comparison to the Ukriane war is the Iran Iraq war.Sept 1980 to Aug 1988. The war became a stalemate from June 1982 to the end in 1988 where the war was frozen along with Iran Iraq border with major battles happening. but not much change in territory. as both sides attacked and counterattacked. losing and retaking lost territory. Both sides were dependent on the export of oil for their economies to support the war. When the war started in Sept 1980 the oil price was 130 USD per barrell. by the time of the stalemate in June 1982 the oil prices dropped to 107 USD per barrell and dropped to its lowest rate at 30 USD in July 1986. While both the Iranian and Iraqi economies were much supported by oil exports, the Iraqis had strong economic support from the USA , UK , France West Germany, Saudis, Gulf Arab states, so even with low oil prices it can survivie, the Iranians nope. In fact the Iranians got desperate and started offensives towards Baghdad and Basra(Iraqi city which is central to the Iraqi oil indsutry) which failed badly and the tanker war targetting foreign and Iraqi shipping in the Persian gulf which failed badly just to create a crisis to raise the price of oil which succeeded but the USA and her allies responded with their navies deployment to the Persii=an gulf to protect shipping and the Saudis raising oil production bringing the price of oil down to 33 USD(it went up to 50 USD due to the tanker war crisis of 1987 to 1988.). Iran called for an armistice and got it in late 1988 with its economy in near collapse and unable to support the war. ....So in comparison same can happen here in the Ukraine war. I expect a crash in oil prices by 2023 to 2024. then that is when Putin gets desperate as the Russian economy starts collapsing rapidly. then he escalates creates a crisis to raise the oil prices. then is confronted by the USA and NATO. ....and that is when the war will end, when Russia has really run out of viable options with economic collapse staring at them in the face, and Putin being the only obstacle to a resolution of the war , they will get rid of Putin.
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  4427. the strategy is very simple as biden says as long as it takes in short the only way Ukraine will win is to do attrition vs. Russia. Many misconceptions on that Russia is the master of attrition , in this war its not , yes they may have a bit bigger economy and population and military compared to Ukraine but the Russians are on a time limit. Their national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, even shoigu himself stated they can support the war until 2025. and I think the Russian economy will warp badly if the war goes past 2025. the war is already costing from 400 mil to 1 bil usd every day for the russians. and analysts say the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and apcs will run out by late 2025 and into 2026. this will result in the russian production and refurbishment of tanks and apcs to be cut by 2/3s. Russians will have a tank shortage. this will be very detrimental to the russian ability to fight. true the ukrs are on the backfoot now but the front line despite Russian succcesses in the battlefield has not really changed, on a strategic scale the Russians have not reaLLY expanded from the 20 percent they control and when biden wins this year 2025 and onwards will be horrible years for the russians. russians have to win by 2025 or its the point of no return. Sure the Russians may get a korean war style win armistice with russia getting control of the 20 to whatever percent of Ukraine but the russian economy and military will be so ruined and their economy in military mode and cant switch over to civlian due to lack of western investments , their economy will implode within a decade of the end of the war. and whatever territory they conquered and get to keep in ukraine they have to repair and pacify. that would cost hundreds of billions of usd. I can see a ciivl war happening in russia or some sort of time of trouble 2.0 whether russia loses or "wins" this war.
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  4428. I think the Russians will focus on conquering the Donbass, with pocketing the Ukrs positions around Sloviansk. which contains some of the best Ukr units and hardened veterans in fortified positions. The Ukrs have been fighting here since 2014 and Russian advances in this war in this area were stopped cold . My view the Russians will attempt to gain a manpower and AFV firepower local superiority in this area. do a slow grinding firepower offensive backed by heavy artillery and air support which is a bit better coordinated than the past poor performance. Ukrs will probably bring in more reinforcements from the south and attempt to outlank the Russians . Yep it will be a brutal battle which the Ukrs will win however I think the Russians will use large amounts of chemical weapons on the Ukrs forcese do forestall a Ukrs advance which threatens the Russians hold in the Donbass. Then the Russians will negotiate and do a ceasefire with a threat that the Russians will use more chemicals if the Ukrs advances more and might escalate to nukes. war ends by summer 2022, both sides claim victory, Russians withdraw from most of Ukraine but annex eastern Donbass. also Russians stipulate that the Ukrainians will not dam the water going to the Crimea. Ukraine joins the EU shortly after peace is signed. Ukraine does not recognize the Russian annexation of the Crime and Eastern Donbass. some sanctions are removed with Russia, however western investors do not go back to Russia, Russia is put on a black list for investments. Lots of investments and aid money flow into Ukraine for reconstruction. Euros stop buying their gas or anything else from Russia. Sweden and Finland join NATO. EU member states stop trading with Russia. Western countries enact emergency laws to confiscate oligarch assets. China pours billions into Russia as investments. Putin dies in 2022 or 2023 due to illness and later theorized due to political struggles. Political and economic chaos in Russia. China takes over Russian economy, Russia becomes an economic vassal to China.
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  4439. well this is what happened when a egostistical deluded megalomaniac ex KGB office worker without any military training or experience tries to micro manage the war and has near complete control on how the war is run. like Micromanaging it to even the unit X level . ITS A DISASTER. and his generals are just window dressing. They take the fall if he makes mistakes. That is why you see how completely ineffective the Russian military is. Im not surprised you see this current bruhaha from wagner and the Chechens, you can see Putin sowing distrust and rivalry among his military leaders as is practice Putin does not want a united front of competent military leaders to oust him. I think the Russians are reinforcing their position in Ukraine, and digging in for the winter, the Russians dont really have any choice since the overall quality of its troops are very poor and would be a disaster if Russia undertakes a major operational military offensive right now, best to defend dig in , maybe launch small counterattacks or offensives. Ukrs are probably taking their breath continuing on offensives as much as they can and preparing for winter also, basically Ukrainians are trying to not let the Russians dig in and catch their breath, so Ukraine is continuing the offensives and pressing home their advantages. so that the Russians are on the backfoot , constantly off balance and inflict as much casuatlies as they can before the rain mud then snow makes things difficult. And then when the ground hardens after the snows in the next few months the Ukrainaisn will launch major winter offensives. which I think the Russians are not prepared for, in fact I htink this winter will be some of the worst winters in European history not surprised to see -15 to -20 C weather in the South of Ukraine. and this is when the Ukrs will launch their surprsie winter offesnives when the harsh winter weather really hampers the logsitics and command and control of the Russian army. The Russian forced draftees are not prepared for winter, severe supply shortages of winter gear and medicines will cause massive amounts of casualties this winter from exposure on Russian forces, While the Ukrs forces are well prepared and well supplied this winter. The Russian are not, over the years, the Russian army conducted numerous winter arctic military excercises but theh problem is that many of the winter arctic trained troops have been sent into Ukraine since the start of the war has have become casualties many are dead from these so called elite units. and they are replaced by these low quality forced draftees, and most Russian army units have become populated witih poorly motivated, armed, trained supplied forced draftees and have become very poor draftee units. Russian units which still keep up to standards are the Chechens, Spetsnaz, VDV and the core wagner group(not the newly raised penal units). I would say 75 percent of the Russian army in Ukraine right now is garbage. The Russians are also keeping a large portion of their regular trained military in Russia in order to maintain order to help the local Russian security services maintain order in the face of arrest and just in case there is war with NATO. whcih I think is secondary. Things are not looking good for Russia, I think Putin will be forced to use battlefield units by 1st quarter of 2023 in the face of a possible general collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine. War will end sometime in mid 2023 and I predict Putin will be deposed within 3 to 5 years of peace in Ukraine. due to economic collapse , massive unrest , bankruptcy of the Russian gov not being able to pay its military, it will start of with munities from the Russian military. With Putin gone there is infighting within the Russian gov. and as the Russian military anbd security forces fragment, with no central control , a number of Russian republics will secede. Russian federation will break up . the secessionists supported by Turkey and China. when the dust settles the forner Russian federation will balkanize into several countries, the largest state will still be Russia covering all of Western Russia, the urals and Siberia. the rest about 50 percent of Pre war Russia, will be composed of several indepedent republics . The break up will be bloody expect genocidal wars, as minorities clash with Russians as they try to achieve independence.
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  4445. as said before, the 2024 USA electons will be pivotal as to who wins this war. I think Biden will win the elections and I think this war will end in the 2025 to 2029 timeline. the Russian economy simply cannot keep up with this war. You can see this with the Russian Ruble exchange currently at 1 USD to 100 rubles. (at the strongest it was 1 USD to 54 rubles in June 2022). and Putin has currently called for more of the Russian economy and industry to be devoted to war, this means more money printing, more inflation and very high interest rates(which really hurts the economy) and more borrowing money from its allies India and China. A long war is simply bad news for the economy as the Russian gov has to devote a increasingly larger percentage of its economy nad industry to the war in Ukraine which is not profitable and a money drain to the Russian economy and more money to keep prices of essential goods like food etc. low so that the population does not revolt. The more the Russian economy is devoted to the war, the worse it will be , esp. after the war is over. when it will be very difficult for the Russians to transition their economy and industry back from military to civilian. Case in point the fall of the USSR in 91 where a large portion of the Soviet economy was devoted to their military f vs. the USA int he cold war. It took more than a decade of painful economic readjustment from a military centric Soviet economy to a Russian fed civilian one. and the Russian Fed had good relations with the west and massive amounts of western investment and aid supported the Russian economy in this transition, that is why they were able to weather the political fall out from the defeat in the first Chechen war in the mid 90s. However in this war, in the aftermath there will be no western aid and investment, and I think the Russians will barely be able to survive with Indian and Chinese investments. In fact, I can see the Chinese making Russia into a economic vassal state. The Russians of course will try to play games and try for a reapproachment with teh west, but the price may be too steep for Putin to pay.
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  4454. The longer Russia is in this war , the worse it will be for the Russian army, economy and political support for Putin, yep I am not surprised that Russia will keep on mobilizing more men to fight in Ukraine but this comes at an economic cost, as well as political support for Putin esp. if more Russians die and he keeps on mobilizing more people and Russia keeps on suffering defeat on the battlefield. as well as hyperinflation in Russia rising food and gas prices. Only a matter of time after this and esp. with a Biden win this year and the dems sweep the house and senate. and Russia cannot afford a war with NATO , putin knows its suicide to do so, so Russia cannot stop the military aid streaming into Ukraine, he can reduce it with meddling in the politics of NATO states but cannot stop it. Directly attacking supply lines into Ukraine from outside will result in war with NATO. Russia does not want to use nukes since this will result in war with NATO. So Putin is in a trap so the only thing he can do is legally declare this war as a war and not as a special military operation and then legally war moblize millions of Russians to fight in Ukraine. He only option is to tire out the Ukrainians and get what he wants which is regime survival and get as much land from Ukraine (miinum all of the donbass) so he can spin this as a victory. and declare an end to the war. Ukrainains and NATO leadership know his game and they are not playing it. Putin and his buddies may think they have the manpower military political will and economy to withstand the war but they are wrong.
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  4527. IUn a Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine scenario I can see the Ruble after total sanctions go from 70 to 700 Rubles to 1 USD. Also I predict Putin will mobilize the Russian population to fight in Ukraine. This will be seen to be more preferrable to using weapons of mass destruction. The Russian public will go along with this. however the newly mobilized conscript reserves will be even worse trained, worse motivated and probably even less well armed than the initial frontline troops the Russians threw into Ukraine. and the Ukrainians are increasingly getting well armed, better trained, still high morale. in fact, arguably very high morale due to atrocities done by the Russian army. getting put into social media. Ukraine still has not mobilized all of its population. I predict the Russians will do a short training session probably 1-2 weeks at most for the new conscripts then throw them into the Ukrainian hell. They will get slaughtered. I think war will end when Putin dies, and there is a change in gov. to a more moderate one. or Russia goes down into revolution civil war. After the war , I see political and economic chaos for Russia, a Russian civil war , the Chechens declaring independence and declaring a Emirates of the Caucasus. maybe invading Daghestan, Chinese will take advantage of this and support certain factions in the Russian gov. and former Russian repbulics in the Far East with the aim to influence control Russian Siberia, Russian Far East and Central Asia and possibly the Caucasus. China will try to control the Russian economy and gov. probably support the Russian nationalists anti USA west factions in the civil war, USA and EU and NATO supports the pro decmocracy forces in the Russian civil war. Belarus overthrows Lukashenko and becomes democratic. Ukraine regains all of its lost territory including the Crimea. Moldova and Georgia regain their seperatist ex. Russian protectorates. Not surprised a joint Moldovan and Ukrainian invasion of Tranistria during the civil war. The Russian civil war will be extremely bloody.
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  4550. Im thinking Nasdaq 100 crashes to 4K pts. BTC to 5K USD. the trigger, escalation of the Ukraine war to near WW3 levels. like After winter and early spring of 2022-2023 where if the Russian winter gambit of the Russians turning off the gas taps of the Europeans in what I think is some of hte most coldest winters in history in Europe and heavilly damaging the German economy. Despite political disruption in the EU mainly among the Hungarians, Italians Spanish, the French , NATO wills stand firm in their support for hte Ukrainians , and Putin's only card to play now in the face of possible Russian defeat in Ukraine, with the Ukrainians recapturing significant amoutn of territory from the Russians in the south, a Russian counteroffensive being defeated due to poor logistics and incomopetence , the worsening state of the Russian economy along with the war in Ukraine turning out to be unwinnable. Just leaves Putin with his last card to play which is escalation to near WW3 with NATO to scare the Europeans and the USA into pressuring hte Ukrainians to accept Russian peace terms. and possibly the Russians use chemical weapons in Ukraine just to prove a point, probably to stop a Ukrainian offensive. and saying they have a right to use it on Russian territory aas they have officially annexed all of their occupied territories. The fears of WW3 or hey even worse the use of a single low yield tacitcal nuke by the Russians to prove a point but they advertise it as a rogue Russian soldier used it but Putin implies not to push him more. Just to force the Ukrainians into negotiations. The use of a nuke however small, will totally panic the markets , panic sell like it was 2000 dot.com bubble burst. panic selling in the markets across the board causing crashes across the board in all markets, The USA will probably to QE and lower interest rates to try to stop the crash . As well as panic across the world with supermarkets being panic bought which dwarfs the Covid panic of 2020. I think this esclation occurs sometime around the summer of 2023.
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  4565. After this war is over even if you get a Putin regime survival and Putin keeping 25 percent of Ukraine which means all of the Donbass and what he currently has. the Russian military and economy will be so weakened and Putin political position also become more fragile that I dont think he will have another go in 4 years , I think maybe 20 years is more like it. I think by the time they have negotiations Russia will have lost os much militarilly that the Russian military will be a shadow of its pre war self. the Russian economy will still be under sanctions and probably in depression or near collapse and as for Putin political standing, he will try to sell that he conquered 25 percent of Ukraine, albeit totally devastated, infrastructure destroyed, massive depopuluation , farmland heavilly damaged. and hundreds of billions of USD to rebuild along wtih full deployment of the Russian military in order to pacify it. which I dont think the Russian economy by end of hte war can manage. and Putin will have a very hard time selling his so called "victory" to the Russian people taking a destroyed 25 percent of Ukrane at the cost of 1 million Russian casualties(several hundred thousnd dead) , massive loss of Russian prestige, and a nearly dead economy. and loss of relations with teh west. I think whether Russia wins or loses this war , Putin will be gone, "winning" this war will just extend the Putin regime to one year to a few years of life. As for successors to the Putin regime I dont think they will want to continue the conflict in one form or another. heck with the amount of PMCs private armies being formed by oligarchs and political leaders lately, without central gov control, this might result in civil war for succession . and from there things will spiral out of control fo Russia. The new Russian gov or whatever takes control of Moscow and St. Petersburg and claims its the rightful Russian gov. will need support and finances from outside sources and the West and China will be happy to oblige. of course with certain concessions. like returning conquered Ukrainian lands , a formal peace treaty and allowance of Ukraine to join EU and NATO and repatriation of Russian war criminals. in return for financial support and removal of sanctions.
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  4580. Yes I think 2024 is a very important year for both sides of the war since its the USA 2024 presidential elections and I think its pivotal to determining the final outcome of this war, and Putin will do everything to get trump or someone like him to win the elections and cut off aid to UKraine, and force Ukraine to an armistice. So yah expect this war to get a lot worse in 2024 as Putin has his back to the wall. and getting very desperate so his regime survives and he does not fall out of a window. So yah Putin will probably do: 1. Full mobilization, and go to total war footing as PUtin has nothing to lose and very desperate. 2. Escalate the confrontation between Russia and NATO to the point of near war status, to scare US voters to vote for a pro peace candidate. also crash the markets and put the US economy into recession. Putin and the Russian elites will be watching the events of the 2024 USA elections and the results will have a pivotal impact on the war. If Trump (or someone like him) wins, war ends in 2025 or 2026 with an armistice with Russia with the Russians keeping whatever they won in Ukraine. Putin will spin this as a victory and his regime survives. or if Biden wins war ends in 2025 or 2026, USA further increases aid to Ukraine maybe even more sanctions on Russia, Russia may try all out desperate offensives to try to inflict as much damage on the Ukrainians and dig in again for the 2028 US elections. but I think the Russian economy cannot take the strain of 4 more years of the war anymore, Russian economists forecast that the Russian economy can last until 2025 or 2026 before it starts faltering badly. and military analysts forecast that Russia will have tank and APC shortages by 2026, judging by the rate of loss of Russian tanks and APCs in the war. Russian elites will probably move to oust Putin and his clique from power in order to save as much of their economy as possible stop the war , remove sanctions and move to much better relations with the west, and probablyi order a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including the crimea. Russians will cut their losses.
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  4644. The Ukraine war is in an interesting stalemate situation right now: The Ukrainians have a bad artilllery ammo shortage right and is slated to get critical by June 2024, however they are on the defensive in good positions with the big towns in the Donbass still heavilly fortified, and have good motivation, and quality troops. The Russians on the other hand have a good firepwoer advantage firing 10K arty shells a day (compared to 1K arty shells fromthe Ukrainians), lots of usage of glide bombs. also have a numerical advantage in tanks APCs and men to throw atr the Ukrainians however half the Russian arty shells are defective and effectively duds, the North Koreans sold hte Russians 1.5 milion arty shells but most were made in the 70s to 90s. poor quality already and poorly stored. about 50 percent are duds. Russian glide bombs many dont hit their targets since they are launched from extreme ranges sicne the Russian pilots are scared of getting shot down by Ukrainian SAMs. Russian troop quality sucks, also 1K Russian troops are dying everyday. and many more wounded. Russian trianing and motivation sucks bad. The Russians are mobilizing about 10K men a month. but 1K are dying every day . the Russians may have numerical advantage but they will be running out of men soon. if this keeps up. The Russians are taking territory for very high casualties. also the Russians are lsoing an ungodly number of tanks and APCs. Russians stocks are massive but its finite and with the current rate of Russian tank and APC losses , the Russians are slated to have a tank and APC shortage by 2026. Also since RUssian medical on average sucks, many of the Russians who are wounded die of their wounds that is not treated in a timely manner. the Russians nomrally do medevac by vans or APCs/tanks who are good targets for Ukrainains drones artillery and ATGMs. Meanwhile Ukrainians get very good battelfield medical, good supply of medical equipment and medicines, timely medevac even to NATO hospitals outside Ukraine. Now im thinking if Biden wins this year 2024. and the Dems sweep the house and senate, holy crap, the shit will hit the fan int he Kremlin. Imagine, USA aid to Ukraine massively increasing. The Russians will be in a world of pain in 2025 and 2026. as the Ukraine aid goes to 100 billion USD> in 2025. So with the Russian economy degrading badly starting 2025 with their wealth fund running out, their currency hyperinflating, Russian economy turning into Venezuela 2.0. meanwhile Ukrainians winning major victories at the front. PUtin will be in the shit. I can see the elites removing Putin by 2026 or 2027. and having a withdrawal deal from Ukraine in order to save what is left of the Russian economy. from total collapse.
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  4650. Actually current Russian oil prices are 72 USD per barrell. Now Russia has been selling at a discount to other countries esp. China and India at 20 percent or even rumored 30 percent discount. so the real price Russia is selling the oil at is around 50 to 57 USD, Russia needs the oil price to be 30 USD just to break even , pay for the operational costs to pump the oil from the ground. I predict due to the coming world economic recession depression, oil prices will crash to around 30 USD in 2024. This will be disastrous for the Russian economy. esp. if the Europeans and their allies cap Russian oil prices at 30 USD. and China and India will still want their 20 to 30 percent discounts. that is economic, now we go on to political, USA pres. elections are going to be in 2024. If a US pres. wins the elections will continue the Biden admin's policy on ukraine or even double down on it. well there goes your political part of the triangle. I think the war will still continue on into 2024. as Putin will see this as his last trump card to play. (haha see that analogy with Trump). Im not surprised Russia will really meddle into the US elections. even overtly doing so out of desperation. I think if Putin sees a US pres. winning who will continue with teh sanctions and aid to Ukraine then Putin will really get desperate in 2024, so you hae the collapse of the Political and Economic part of hte triangle in 2024. Putin will get super desperate by late 2024. and I am not surprised you will see an esclation of the conflict in late 2024 or in 2025. as Putin fights for regime survival. by this time. I predict, Russian economy is in near collapse massive unrests sweeping Russia even armed insurrection in parts of Russia. and political fractionalism. as his rivals come out and openly speak out against his policies in the war. and seeing the mobilizations not working, faced with a collapsing economy and widespread unrest, Putin will order the use of WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons on the battlefielid. then tactical nukes . Im not surprised if Putin gets deposed by his military if he orders the use of nukes. In this scenario I can see the war ending in 2025 with a military/oligarch junta taking over after deposing Putin and his inner circle. and calling for negotiations withdrawal from Ukraine. I preditct the withdrawal wil be messy and chaotic and not surprised if the Russian army in Ukraine turns into a disorganized mob. every man for himself. In the next years, Russia will really be unstable and a civil war of sorts will occur.
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  4652. yes the Russians have a good abilityto rotate their reserves and resources all over the place, since these areas have good concentration of rail lines and Russians rely on railways and trains to move their units and supplies around, then again, it cost the Russians great deal in supplies logitics resources to do so. Ukrs can do the same thing but more efficiently. Again main problem is Russian logistics which is still sub par, preety bad, as the Ukrs are hitting them very hard. Russian can only launch small offensives since their logistics cannot support big breakthrus, the Russian tried one at Kupiansk back from July 19 to 26, 2023 and managed to tear a 8 KM hole in Ukr lines but due to supply shortages since the Ukrs were hitting Russian trains rail lines and truck convoys with missles and JDAMs , the Russians were not able to exploit it, and the Uukrs managed to plug the hole and drive the Russians back. that is why at Kupiansk, the Ukrs are holding off a much bigger Russian force(2X more) since the Russians are attacking up hill with supply shortages. entrenched Ukrs, the only response the Russian can do is artillery bombardment which the Russians are doing a lot . You dont get that one in the southern front , in this one the Ukrs have artillery superiority, due to Russian artillery ammo shortage and Russian artillery ammo being sent to the Kharkov front. and where is the Russian air support in all this, reportly they are not making much of a differences and not really around, wonder why??? maybe Russian air force is over worked, overused poor maintenance lack of spare parts. and pilots fear of getting shot down. Wonder why the Russians are not brining out their Mig-23, 27s, 21s out of storage hahahahah. they already brought out their T-62s and 55s out of storage. They built about 5K Mig-23s 1K Mig-27s and 11500 mig-21s , maybe its because the Mig-23s and 27s are so awful to use they have to keep them in storage and the 21s are so badly stored you cant fly them haahahah.
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  4688. the longer Russia is in the war in Ukraine the more its economy is kaput, and the full force of the Russian economic breakdown and tsunami will hit after or near the end of the war. Currently its estimated the Russians only have 40 billion USD in their war fund and it costs 500 mil USD and 1 billion USD per day or even more just to maintain their military forces in Ukraine. and that is just the maintenance, and it cost much more money to build more weapons to refurbish their mothballed weapons and buy more weapons abroad. like the Russians made 12 billion USD in oil sales in Oct 2023, that is 12 days of maintenance. which is a drop in the bucket. and that is the Russians main money maker. The Russians are bleeding a lot of money not only maintaining their military but also trying to prevent their currency going into hyperinflation and doing price controls. on food. Only a matter of time like starting in 2025(or even in 2024) when the Russians are not able to properly fund the war, which causes hyperinflation , out of control food prices, Russian military not performing well, with breakdowns in logistics, armmo shortages etc. So the real battlefield is the Russian economy, and as I said the longer Russia in the war, the more it dies. and a Biden win in 2024 means a big uptick in support for Ukraine in the war, and massive shockwaves in the Kremlin giving strength to pro Peace factions in the Russian gov and mlitary and a great weakening of Putins political strength and grip on power. I think if faced with a catastrophic collapse of their economy , and out of control hyperinflation, the Russian elites will cut hteir losses and depose Putin and begin negotiations to get out of the war, like how much of Ukraine they will withdraw from in exchange for lifting of all sanctions on Russia, normalized relations with the west, Russian acceptance of Ukrainian NATO and EU membership also possibly economic aid to soften the economic landing of the RUssian economy after the war, and the Russians will be negotiating with weakness. with the USA and Ukraine having the upper hand. I think the Russians in the end with completely withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea. And despite econoimc aid to Russia, the economic landing for Russia post war will be hard. but the Russian gov will be stable more or less.
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  4782. PUtin will soon be terminal ill near the end or after the war is over. Let's say the ceasefire happens in 2023 with Russia still in control of around 10-20 percent of Ukraine. It will still be viewed as a failure by the Russian leadership and high command, Putin will ballyhoo this as a success, like losing 100K or 200K casualties after more than a year of war, losing thousands of military vehicles, hundreds of planes, a collapsed economy with severe sanctions still on, possibly collapsed oil prices, a pariah state where no one really wants to invest in. a collapsed arms sales as Russian weapons looked bad in this war, Russia will have to massively sell its weapons at discounted prices, and a bottomed out prestige where the Russian military is looked as a third rate incompetent power. and a NATO that has its unity strengthened by Russian aggression. While Putin and his cronies will advertise this war as a victory the Russians and most oligarchs will view this one as a defeat. Putin may survive the war but his days are numbered. with Russian economy and military and influence severely weakened. I think Putin will consolidate his armed forces, try to build it up again for another possible go at Ukraine. Ukraine will rebuild, with a view on rebuilding its armed forces. to take on the Russians again in a future conflict. Putin may actually die shortly after this war is over due to anger due to the poor handling of this war and fear that Putin may do a major purge of the Russian armed forces and oligarchy, and there will be a power struggle to see who takes over later but I can see a military junta taking over from Putin and the Junta and oligarchs picking a Russian leader that they can control, no more strong man Putin like leaders. Possibly someone like Medvedev as Pres. heck they might even pick Navalny to have good ties with the west.
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  4805. shoigu has massive influence in the Kremlin, Shoigu has been there for a LONG time, a decade before Putin came to power Shoigu held a Russian ministry post, Shoigu is a Putin man. Putin has been micromanaging this war right down to the Brigade level. and SHoigu is the fall guy, so I dont think Putin will replace Shoigu since many of the military blunders in this war is attributed to Putin , Shoigu and Garasimov both fall guys . So Prigozhin is just a show. I tihnk the Russian leadership main goal is to hang on until the west gets tired and a negotiated peace happens where Russia gets to keep well at least ten percent of Ukraine. Then Putin will spin this as a victory. in the meantime, the Russians will use as many of their Russian recruits to die for them to keep the Ukrainians at bay. The Russians will probably do offensives in order to weaken Ukrainian offensive capabilities and to forestall Ukrainian offensives , otherwise its all defensive that is why the Russians have been building a lot of defensive works in the occupied areas. I think Putin will have all his eggs on the 2024 USA presidential elections. and do everything to influence it so Pro Peace Pres. candidates can win the elections. I think the war will end in 2025 if a Pro Peace USA pres. takes power in the white house. While I think the war will end in 2026 if a Pro Ukraine Pres. gets elected to the white house. I think with a Pro Peace USA pres. like Trump. will pressure Ukraine to have a peace treaty armistice with Russia and threaten to cut off all aid. then take all the glory is promoting a peace plan for Russia and Ukraine. Probably lift a lot of the sanctions from Russia. but again due to bureaucratic resistance many of the sanctions will remain. If a Pro Ukraine pres. is elected, USA and her allies will increase aid to Ukraine , maybe even double down. and Putin's hold on power will become significantly weaker. and Putin gets a lot more desperate. So him and the oligarchs believe that the war cant go on for longer , cant be won, and I think by 2025, the Russian economy is so bad, that the Russian citizens feel it even in Moscow. in the form of very high food and fuel prices. very high inflation rates. Also the Ukrainians probably dealt the Russia a bunch of major defeats in 2023-2024. and probably retaken large parts and probablyi knocking on Crimea's door. retaken Luhansk and Donetsk. Whatever the Russian have occupied in 2025, is Crimiea and a portion of South eastern Ukraine not enough for Putin to spin for a victory and the Russians probably lost like 750K to 1 million casualties. with a much stronger Ukrainian army, while the Russian army has devolved badly and the largest number of tanks are T-62s and 55s. Putin's grip on power is a lot weaker and Russian media is very outspoken vs. Putin and calls for him to step down are loud. lot of unrest in Russia. By 2025, the Ukrs have driven the Russians to near 2022 pre war borders. The Russian army while huge does not have real offensive capabilities to push back the Ukrainians significantly . The Russians cannot mobilize more since unrest in Russia has become widespread. attempts at moiblization are met with protests and rebellion. recruitment officers and offices are attacked . And the Ukrainians are preparrng the final offensive to retake Crimea, and Putin is threatening the use of nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian troops set foot in the crimea.
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  4893. yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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  4894. I think the whole war over all is a stalemate for both sides The Ukrs have realized that the only way to make Putin quit this war is inflcting lots of casualties on the Russians while limiting their own that is why you have the Ukrs at bakhmut trying to maximize Russian losses and the Ukrs have not deployed their main troops at Bakhmut, Ukrs are not even encircled and still rotating and the Uks only have a small percent of their mlitary forces at bakhmut and rest are training and refurbishing for a possible major offensive. I think its now a stalemate between the Russians and Ukrs, war of attrition bttle of economies which economy gives out first no side can seem to do decisive offensives to knock the other out of the war. You sent Ukrs are dependent on financial aid from the west. and depends on who is sitting in the white house. Russians will have their national wealth fund run out by 2024. that will cause the Russians gov to be bankrupt im not surpised the Chinese and Indians are lending lots of monies to the Russians at high interest rates. and buying Russian oil and gas at 20 to 30 percent discount. from the 60 USD oil price cap at the same time other countries like Egypt, Iran etc. (probably even China too) are selling drones and artillery ammo to the Russians are highly inflated rates. also include North Korea there too also causing lots of casualties on the Russians means the Russians have to keep on mobilizing more troops, means they have to buy more ammo from other sources since they keep on wasting them and their production cant keep up with Russian arty ammo usage. which means the Russians spend more and more monies. also Russians mobilize more it will cause more unrest down the road. I think this is why you have rumors of plots by high ranking Russian gov and military officials to throw the war since they know Putin will break the Russian military thru massive casualties and break the Russian economy to get a "win" and regime survival.
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  4938. yah lets see start of the war Russia which has 10X the economy of Ukraine, 10X the military spending than Ukraine, 10X the military of ukraine, attacks with a surprise attack on Ukraine, takes 40 percent of Ukraine in the first few months of the war, utterly fails in knocking out the Kiev Gov instead the Ukrainians fight back hard, and in 1 year took back 50 percent of the territory that the Russians conquered. inflicintg 200 to 250K casualties on the Russians, several thousands captured or destroyed armoured vehicles a few hundred destroyed planes and destroying Russian military prestige, the Russian troops and officers look like incompetents with poor morale training and leadership. with poor logistics, the Russian tank farming tractor memes made the Russian military look like laughingstocks. and Russian propoganda has increasingly become very comical, brutal, and heinous. Putin at the start of the war to mid 2022 promised not to mobilize now putin has blatantly mobilized hundreds of thousands of Russian and caused the largest Russian refugee diaspora since the 90s. with millions of Russians running away from the country. Russia is very much looked down upon in the world community with UN resolutions against Russia becoming successful and OSCE delagations walking during Russian delegation speeches. That is how low Russian international prestige is. and meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting stronger getting better weapons. while the Russian army has devolved to a WW1 style army. HOW EMBARASSING RUSSIA
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  4940. I forsee the Russian civil war starting in 2026 when a coaltion of oligarchs, regional militias with their PMCs along with factions of the Russian military get sick and tired of the Putin regime and fearing Putin will purge them move against Putin. Putin is overthrown by 2027 and is allowed to leave Russia for exile in Syria and dies of natural causes a few years later. Meanwhile the coalition falls apart when in power and a new civil war erupts. Meanwhile several republics like Chechnya, Tatarstan declare independence. While this is happening. Ukraine takes back Crimea in the late 2020s. as the varous Russian factions are busy fighting each other and Russia is without a gov. civil war ends sometime in the early 2030s with the Russian Fed surviving with 50 percent less of its pre war territory and several new ex. Russian fed nations emerging. also with the downfall of Putin, Belarus coverthrows Lukashenko new Liberal gov applies to join NATO and EU. So does Armenia, Georgia(georgian dream party is overthrown). Urkaine joins NATO shortly after the war is over. Meanwhile a new regime takes over in what is left of the Russian fed. which is authoritarian first but shifts to a democratically elected gov (to satisfy the west and restore normal relations and get rid of the sanctions) simliar to the Pre war Ukrainian gov with the real power held by oligarchs and leaders change via general elections. siding with the west(since the oligarchs dont want to get controlled by China). China meanwhile supports the various new Russian fed republis and the Central Asian former USSR republics making them into Chinese economic puppets, a defensive pact is formed later betweeen China and these nations simliar to the CSTO.
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  4974. a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps Russian Order of battle: 2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X. Ukrainian Order of battle: 13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X. aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk. Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster. also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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  5007. well I think Merkel and the west underestimated Putin a lot, and Putin was quite expert at political maneuvering however he got too greedy with Ukraine, and the west trapped him here, now the war in Ukraine is an existential threat for Putin, I think Putin will fight it out to the end in Ukraine, however I dont think he will use nukes to win , doing so will also be a loss for him. in fact there is a good chance of war with NATO and at the very least total economic sanctions on Russia, which crashes the Russian economy hard and massively increased aid to Ukraine, and his own people not following his orders and instead overthrowing him. So Putin's last option is to fight it out to the end and hope that Western aid to Ukraine stops and they force Ukraine to an armistice and Putin gets to keep whatever he conquered at the time of the armistice. That is why the 2024 USA elections is pivotal to teh war, If Biden or a pro Ukraine pres. wins, then Russia has 4 more years to try to hang on, which I dont think Putin can do with the way the war is going. If Trump or a Pro Peace Pres wins, then there is a good chance that aid to Ukraine stops and a armistice is quite possible leaving Russian with whatever it conquered and Putin can use this for regime survival and spin the war as a victory. Of course it really depends on the state of hte Russian army and how much of Ukraine Russia controls and the state of the Russian economy in the final outcome as to the survival of hte Putin regime. I think that even if Biden wins the USA elections of 2024, Putin will try to hang on until Ukraine pushes the Russians out of Ukraine including Crimea. and USA aid will increase exponentially after a Biden win, Russian military and economy get degraded badly . I dont think Putin will last too long after 2024. and after he is gone, well new Russian regime will have to deal with a Russian in economic collapse, bankrupt, a military in revolt, social problems, I cannot see any Russian leader after Putin who can deal with these problems and the Russian state will slide into some sort of civil war, or disorder. Also the west might drop all the sanctions in exchange of some concessions to keep the new Moscow gov stable. and probably pump in more money into Russia to keep the Russian economy from total collapse. With a bankrupt Russian state with a very weak military , I see some parts of Russia seceding and becoming independent countries however I think the Russian fed will keep it together mostly since most parts of Russia have big Russian ethnic majorities. however due to a weak military economy , law and order will be a problem and western investments will be slow to return to Russia and this will result in high crime rates, the return of hte 90s with a vengeance. out of control inflation. the west will not allow a Russian president like Putin to come to power again. and will monitor Russian politics and gov very carefully and make sure its more or less democratic.
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  5046. well if you believe the rumors Putin already died in Oct 2023 and has not been ruling the country since late 2022. Patrushev and Shoigu have been ruling Russia thru doubles. and the real rulers of Russia are just waiting for the results of the 2024 USA elections and will act accordingly. I think war will end either in 2025 or 2026. with either a Russian marginal win, with a armistice with the Russians keeping whatever land they still control in Ukraine and the Putin regime intact. (with a Trump win) or a Ukrainian victory with the elites cutting their loses removing Putin from power and blaming him for everything. Heck if you believe the Putin is already dead rumors, Patrushev and Shoigu will come out and say Putin died of natural causes and they will take over negotiate with weakness, then withdraw from Urkaine at the minimum back to pre war starting positions. So the putin regime may survive but without Putin at the helm. The Russians will cut their losses with a Biden win , negotiate to minimize their losses (maybe to keep the Crimea) then blame everything on Putin. and make up shit on him. Heck not surprised if Patrushev and Shoigu probably said they are heroes for taking out a tyrannical insane Putin haha. In return for a withdrawal from Ukraine, all sanctions are lifted back to business as usual with the west. The Russian wil try to salvage as much of their military and economy and maintain law and order in Russia. with Patrushev as the new Russian leader and Shoigu stil as head of hte Russian army and defense minister.
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  5048. I think Prigozhin may be the mouth piece of Putin to put a torch up the asses of the Russian army leaders to shape up or else, Putin cant act directly against the Russian army leadership, I dont think Putin has total control over Russia in fact in some areas, like the military and oligarchy he has limited power, I dont think Putin has full control of the FSB either. And Prigozhin seems to be allowed to say the shit he is saying , any other Russian says the shit he is saying, they would be arrested tortured, disappeared permanently. so the Prigozhin may well be protected by Putin himself. in fact, Prigozhin serves as a gadfly to the military by Putin. And later Putin can use prigozhin as a perfect foil in order to survive politically to ready the Russian people in case Russia has to withdraw from Ukraine and a major Russian defeat in the war. With this, I think Putin will use Prigozhin, probably Igor Girkin too who I think is also one of Putin's mouthpieces to say that he was duped by his own people and use that as a pretext to withdraw from Ukraine back to pre 2022 war status. In fact I think Putin will wait until the results of the USA 2024 presidential elections, with the first important milestone being the 2024 Rep party Presidential primaries from Feb to June 2024. If a US pres. is elected who still supports Ukraine in NOv 2024, I think Putin will throw the towel in 2025. seeing that if the war continues for another 4 years his regime might go kaput. In this scenario, I think PUtin will order a withdrawal back to pre 2022 war status quo. Blame a bunch of ministers, military , FSB, oligarchs for duping him in invading Ukraine and having them purged. Then he will come out and blame them for being deceived and say he was the victim all the while tightening his grip on power simlair to what Saddam did after Iraq's defeat in the Kuwait in 91. Putin will seek reapproachment with Ukraine and the west. but this will fail as the west will demand he step down, democratic elections, withdrawal back to 90s borders, and war criminals extridited for trial at the Hague, in return for lifting of all sanctons and business as usual and possible financial aid. Putin does not want to be a Chinese bitch and wants good relations with the west to balance it out.
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  5083. hahahah, I think this is going to be very bad for Putin and Russia, Trump may end up putting strong sanctions on Russia, doing the drill baby drill to crash the price of oil then supplying Ukraine with even more weapons. very amusing. Trump smells weakness in Putin and Russia, Putin totally overplayed his hand and Trump knows the Emperor has no clothes. so Trump will do as Trump does in negotiations and deals where he has the upper hand, and I think Ukraine is very important to him as Ukraine in the post war reconstruction of its economy and infrastructure will be very very valuable to him as hundreds of billions of USD flows into Ukraine from the USA and the EU and its allies. and Trump specializes in real estate and construction, Ukraine will be a very lucrative market esp. as its economy booms post war. In comparison Russia will be a mess post war, yes they have a massive market but it will be very limited due to political economic and social instability post war compared to a booming and stable Ukraine much easier to make money from a boomng and stable country Ukraine than a unstable country Russia. Also the western investments are not going to flow back to Russia but go to Ukraine instead. War will probalby end with a Korean war style armistice with thousands of UN and NATO troops occupying Ukraine but a much weakened Russia. holding on to whatever territory. it holds. Due to Putin intransigence and unreasonable pre negotiation demands, I think he will lose his current upper hand, and extend the war which is not good for Russia as its economy starts falling apart in 2026. The kicker here, is that while Ukraine is not going to be accepted in NATO and teh EU for now, Ukraine practically becomes a NATO protectorate with a booming economy and a rapidly reforming mlitary along NATO lines with a vengeful anti Russia policy. Russia in the meantime, will be suffering from hyperinflation, economic depression, and political and social instability. with the war over, the oligarchs and elites now turn on Putin and there is a political conflict between the oligarchs and Putin.Oligarchs and elites blame Putin for the predicament Russia is in while Putin tries to hold on to power. Meanwhile Russia is unstable with rising food prices hyperinflation, thousands of Russia war veterans returning home and causing very high crime rates, Russians have the feeling their country is falling apart. LIke the 90s came back again, esp. after Putin is gone, the 90s will come back with a vengeance on steroids all the while you have the Chinese taking over the Russian economy, a weak post pUtin Russian gov controlled by the elites and oligarchs who have their own strong private armies. plus strong corruption now uncontrolled due to a weak Russian gov. with the USA and China influencing political factions and elites. Russia has become a massive failed state. just primed to blow up. millions flee for other countries. Meanwhile while Russia is prostrate ith its problems in the decade following the end of the war, the Ukrainians have rebuilt their economy and infrastructure much prosperous and better than before the war started in 2014. with a Ukrainian military the strongest it has been and looking to recover its lost territories back and exact vengeance on the Russians. Also Ukraine has been fanning the flames of instabilty in Russia by supporting Anti Russian gov groups , secessionists etc. esp. anti Russia partisans in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine. Meanwhile the Russian army is a mess. many of its recruits joined the private armies of the oligarchs and elites, and the Russian army in the occupied areas while massive are a mess. underarmed, poorly paid. lots of corruption , drug abuse, alcoholism etc. and hated by the locals. Ukraine has built up a extensive network of resistance in the occupied areas and will be sprung up when the time is right.
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  5200. Well as for the Chinese, I think they will trade with Germany and the USA , the Chinese KMT have been on friendly terms with the Nazis even the Germans supported the Japanese, during the 1937-1945 war, the Germans were acting as diplomatic middle men between the KMT and the Japanese and the Germans were selling weapons to the KMT , also Chiang Kai Shek much admired the Germans. In this timeline since no German declaration of war with the USA, KMT China also does not declare war on Germany. Both the KMT and Germany still maintain friendly relations throughout the war, the KMT defeats the warlords and integrates them into the KMT and exterminates the CHinese commies. in the subsequent Chinese civil war 1946-1949 phase or aka pacification of the warlords and communists era, after the Japanese surrender. The Chinese communists. The KMT Chinese are also friendly with the USSR. The USSR massively helped the KMT Chinese with large amounts of volunteers, advisors and weapons from 1937-1941 to fight Japan. This has not been forgotten. China in this timeline since the mid to late 50s becomes the workshop of the world for both Germany and the USA, with the CHinese under a authoritarian KMT party providing to what China is providing now for foreign corporations. Cheap place to manufacture goods. By 2021 China is the 3rd largest economy in the world, with a dynamic capitalist economy and a authoritarian KMT one party gov. which seems to change leaders every 4 years since the 80s after the death of CHiang Kai Shek's son Chiang Ching Kuo. standards of living for the average Chinese rival that of the USA. China has close economic ties with Germany and the USA and on friendly political terms with both. also on friendly terms with the USSR and serves as a trade window and middle man with the rest of hte world to that closed state. China also has strong influence with its Asian neighbours esp. Korea which is practically a Chinese puppet state dependency dominated by Chinese corporations. In this timeline China does not invade TIbet but its independent gov. is strongly influenced by the Chinese.
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  5220. this is slow grinding warfare, I think it will be attritional for a while to come , so the Ukrs strategy is to defend while at the same time exacting as much Russian casualties as possible , a fighting withdrawal. making the Russian pay heavilly for every meter they take. So far the Russian have heavilly fortified their holdings so and manned them mostly with conscripts. The Ukrs forces were able to take back lots of territory since before mobilization the Russians had a manpower problem and had to use police and Rosgvardiya units to garrison certain areas, the Ukrs attacked these areas smashing into what essentially are police units. and of course mauled the 1st GTA while they were resting. near Kharkov. Now the Russians mass mobilized and rushed in an estimated 500K conscrupts to flesh out the defenses and also built lines of trencehs and fortifications backed up by lots of armor and artilllery. and that is why the Ukrainians were bloodily bogged down at Kremina. since they were facing a full VDV XX backed up by Russians conscripts and bars. who were behind trenches fortifications and bcked up by air and artillery support and tanks. On the defense the Russians can be good, Ukrs are good at maneuver warfare . So right now the fronts are frozen and can be costly for the Ukrainians if they attack something the Urkainians do not want to do since they dont want to waste their infantry on stupid frontal attacks. and want to use them to exploit holes and weakenss in Russian defence lines. In the meantime the Ukrs are pounding Russian logistics with HIMARs limiting Russian offensive capabilities. So if Bankhmut is ready to collapse not yet, but I think it will be an orderly retreat for the Ukrs. and the Ukrs will exact the maximum Russian casualties before they give up Bakhmut and move to the next defense lines.
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  5244. I think it will take a week or two to scrounge up enough forces for their major offensive, I expect the Russians under great pressure from Putin to up their game do a more slower careful grinding offensive centered on fire power rather than quick mobile offensives. Encircle and pocket the Ukrainians in the Donetsk, cauldron them and cut them into small pockets which can be dealt with one by one. The weather will be clear cloudy with some rain, and its getting warmer. also the ground in hte donbass is hard, open plains perfect tank country. However I dont think the Ukrainians will be playing by this playbook , suicide to fight the Russians head on. when the Russians still have numerical superiority in AFVs , air and artillery. I think the Ukrainians will take a page out of how the Chadians dealt with the Libyan army in the 80s Toyota war and with the South Africans dealing with the Angolan MPLA armies during the battle of Cuito Cunavale late 80s. basically both the Libyan and Angolans were using the SOviet mech doctrine , tank APC heavy advances with heavy air and artillery support and superiority. The ground the Chadians were fighting in was open desert terrian, the South Africans were fighting in open savanah terrain . To counter the Libyans and Angolans both the Chadians and Angolans employed mostly wheeled vehicles technicals and wheeled light tanks civlian trucks armed with ATGMs and did hit and run attacks on the LIbyan and Angolan columns. Yep, those same tactics the Ukrainians used so successfully vs. road bound Russians with ATGM ambushes and hit and run attacks can also be used in the more open plains of the Ukr south since wheeled vehicles in these open terrain with hard ground is a lot mobile and faster than tracked tanks and APCs. Yah I noticed the Russians will probably counter this with wheeled vehicles of their own manned by their elite forces. but I think this is the way to go and concentrate again on hitting Russian logistics. Ukrainians are probably holding back their tank forces in a strategic reserve and when the Russians are fully demoralized at the end of the logistical rope the knockout blow will be from the Ukrainain mech reserves. The Ukrainians will never concede the Donbass due to its importance in terms of natural resources and also national integrity. and the Ukrainians have a lot of manpower reserves they can call up, and can actually outnumber the Russians as the war drags on, along with lots of NATO military aid coming in. The Russians cannot really call up their reserves in a draft since the Russians might revolt create unrest and refuse to go to Ukr and the conscripts will be useless even worse quality than the frontline troops. so the Putin has to make do with his existing force in Ukraine. and those Ukrainian reserves that are being called up are well motivated to fight. with the latest NATO ATGMs and MANPADs.
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  5329. Yes the USA is prepared for a major war, yep I remember back in 1990 just before Desert storm they were saying the USA was not prepared for a major war, and many media pundits were harping on the prowess of the Iraqi army and how numerous and formidable they were having fought the Iran Iraq war for nearly a decade of trench warfare, the Iraqis created a lot of trenches and fortifications bunkers all over the Kuwaiti border to prepare for the US led allied Coalition to remove Iraq from Kuwait, the Iraqis thought the Americans were weak due to the aftermath of the Vietnam war and the yanks would chicken out and counted the Iraqi army which just came out of a very bloody Iran Iraq war with extensive experience in trench warfare, the Iraqis and world media thought that the Allies were not fit enough to fight thru the extensive Iraqi trenches and fortificaitons, well the Coalition did not play by Iraqs playbook and bombed the living crap out of the Iraqis and their defenses in kuwait, and when the Allied offensive began , it went around the trenches and bypassed them and engaged the now depleted shocked and weakened Iraqi mechanized forces and easilly defeated with few losses. the Iraqis int he Kuwaiti trenches and bunkers who were bypassed, later surrendered en masse after running out of supplies and many bunkers and trenches were blown up and buried. So the Russians will probably fight in a simliar way as the Iraqis, during the Kuwait war 1990-1991. NATO air forces will have air superiority over the Russians within a week , it will be a repeat of desert storm. if the Russians are stupid enough to fight NATO.
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  5409. well the reason is situational, Russian logistics suck so bad that it cannot sustain a big offensive for a long period of time, if they launch a big offensive like the one at Kupiansk starting July 19, 2023 , that one fell apart a few weeks after it started, the main reasons are: 1. Russian logistics are reliant on railways, trains, and the Russians have to truck their supplies from rail heads to the supply depots and truck them to units in need. Ukrs know this and concentrate their HMARs, JDAMs , Drones, on hitting trains, railheads, supply depots and even hiting Russian truck convoys. night and day. 2. Poor leadership and coordination, vintage outdated Soviet style mlitary doctrine. 3. Russian troops low morale and poorly trained. Its very amusing, that the Ukrainians despite having virtually no to little air support have managed to gain ground in the South vs. extensive Russian trenches and minefields and fortifications. despite at the start of the Ukrainian southern offensive the Russians had artilery superioirty and lots of air support. but the Ukrs focused on hitting Russian logistics and then artillery , cluster munitions proved very useful, as Russian artillery was really savaged to the point that now the Ukrainians have artillery superiority in southern Ukraine, as many Russian artillery have been destroyed , Russian logistics savaged by constant Ukr HMARS JDAM and cluster munition strikes. So Russians have to rely on air support from the Russian air forces with lots of SU-25 sorties, drones and glide bombs, unfortunately for the Russians, despite haviing lots of air support, they are not able to make proper use of it since Russian pilots are afriad of Ukrainian SAM systems , Russian pilots are forced to fire and extreme ranges which rsults in very inaccurate fire. the more accurate Glide bomb are more effective but still inaccurate and not enough of them. and due to this , also the Russians are trying to reinforce their forces int he southern front from other fronts but again these units are being hit hard while they are travelling via trains and roads, so by the time they are deployed to the southern front, they are weakened. So the Russian southern front is in a sorry state, with supply shortages esp. artillery ammo and artillery (wonder why the Russians are deploying their vintage musuem T-10 tanks to the southern front). This has resulted in Ukrs breaking thru the Russian defence lines and the Russians not effectively being able to carry out their offensives in the Kharkov oblast and getting their asses kicked in Bakhmut. as the Ukrs forces there nearly encircled the Russian troops in Bakhmut, yep while people like to do doom and gloom, the Russians are in for a shitshow of massive proportions, with the Ukrs probably capturing Tokmak by end of Sept 2023. and maybe even Bakhmut before the year ends. or hey maybe we can have a suprise where the Russian soutnern front collapses. and the Ukrainians capture Melitopol. hahah. Heck a Ukrainian capture of Melitopol and Bakhmut will really be a disaster for the Putin. maybe cause another coup vs. Putin hahah.
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  5520. Typical Russian negotiation tactics. By the time this war ends, Russia will be totally messed up. Again depends on who win the 2024 USA elections. If Kamala wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russian elites deposing Putin cut their losses preserve the economy and teh Russian state, a Russian total withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange , all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets are unfrozen in western banks, normalized relations with the west, formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing borders, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. If Trump wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russians keeping whatever they conquered from Ukraine. This is spun as a victory by Putin. There is an armistice but no peace treaty , sanctions vs. Russia are still in place. relations with the west still filled with tensions, and Russian assets in western banks still left frozen. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the USA and the west with Trump and his friends companies benefiting. Both sides build up their militaries again and ready up for a next war. Either way, Ukraine joins NATO several years after the war ends, faster if Kamala Harris wins. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction aid from the west. Ukrainian economy booms during reconstruction. Russian economy goes to depression mode , hyperinflation , high unemployment, political and social chaos as the Moscow regime tries to assert control along with hundreds of thousands of Russian veterans coming back from the war causes social chaos in Russia. Putin if still in power clamps down hard on crime and civil disorder. If Putin was overthrown, Russia goes thru a period of social political and economic disorder simliar to teh 90s However Russia economically is kept stable with western support for the new Moscow gov. If PUtin still in power Putin with military force manages to restore order to Russia but after Putin dies, bloody civil war erupts in Russia. between various armed groups. I posit that it would be better if Russia lost the war, since it wont be burdened by economic sanctions and will western economic support so a soft landing. If Russia won the war, Putin would try to restore order with military force and might work in the short run but after he dies Russia goes through a bloody civil war not seen since 1917 to 1922.
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  5530. I would sayi Russian coordination has gotten better compared to early in the war, but its still poor. I think Putin knows this and is trying to rectify the situation by micromanaging, shifting and firing commanders around. but still a lot of rot in the Russian army top to bottom. and its gotten worse, wtih low morale, poor training, and increaasing manpower shortages and while Russian coordination may have gotten better things have actually become worse for the Russians overall. and the Ukrainians are increasingly getting better armed. better coordianted trained etc. and are getting better an operational offensives. I can only see the Russian positions getting worse and the Ukrainains getting stronger. While the Russians still have a firepower materiel advantage over the Ukrainians the balance of power is starting to even out and tip towards the Ukrainians. I put that to Russian total stupid mismanagement of the war. and Putin will pay for that. already nearly 7 months into the war and the Ukrainains are able to do significant effective operational offensives vs. the Russians. that is telling. and its just going to get worse, what about 1 year into the war. in Feb 2023. I can see the Ukrainians inflicting stalingrad style losses on the Russians will mass surrenders in the thousands for Russian troops perhaps in Kherson which I see the battle extending into winter of 2022 to 2023. A stalingrad 2.0 with a massive Russian defeat. combine that with the failure of turning off the energy taps to the Eurpeans in making them stop supporting the Ukrainians along with a crashing Russian economy that will really make Putin even more dangerous and desperate probably enough to order the use of chemical weapons or nukes on the Ukrainians. Im thinking Putin will do one more final major offensive in mid 2023 one of the biggest if not the biggest int he war whcih will be a failure.
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  5536. well I think the game has changed, looks like Zelensky will sign the contract for the minerals, not surprised if war ends with an armistice in the few months. Ukraine effectively becomes a USA protectorate, since Trump has a lot at stake in ukraine, Trump will probably protect it and warn the Russians off. You probably get a freeze in the conflict along the current lines of contact, Ukraine will get lots of USA weapons, Russia will get all sanctions lifted assets unfreezed plus normalized relations with the USA. Possibly UKraine gets peacekeepers from Europe and the UN. So if this end occurs the war is still a stalemate with a marginal Russian victory. as Russia controls 20 percent of Ukraine, however its very marginal as Russia lost 900K casualties(the real number is probably 1 million casualties), destroyed prestige, a belaguered economy. and Russia facing post war economic problems. Ukraine on the other hand will probably boom after US and EU and allied investments due to American backing. I think there will be elections where possibly Zelesnky steps down and possibly fromer General Zalushny becomes Ukrainian president. Not surprised if we get a surprise from Russia like Putin suddenly dying and replaced by someone else like Patrushev shortly after the war ends. in analysis, while the war is a stalemate with a technical Russian marginal victory, the Ukrainian have performed quite well, well above expectations which by all accounts should have been defeated by a much larger and stronger Russia(before the war) but the Ukrainians not only resisted strongly but gave the Russians a good thrashing. what was planned as a 3 day military operation a fast in and out operation by the Russians has turned out to have lasted 3 years, in a brutal war not seen since WW2, with casualites far exceeding all the wars Russia has fought since the end of WW2 put together.
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  5554. well Preston Russia does not have the same mindset as the west esp. the USA, yes we are ready to negotiate when you lose a war and dont collapse just like what happened to the USA in Vietnam , and Afghanistan. But in Russia they take this shit very seriously: Now here are two wars that Russia lost in the past and the results: Soviet Afghan war 1979 to 1989: Yes the USSR the precursor state to Russia lost this war, and yes the USSR collapsed the next year 1990. But this war was not the only reason why the USSR collapsed, in fact I think it was a minor reason, but the overall reason the USSR collapsed was a confluence of events and reason but most importantly the collapse of the Soviet economy was the most important reason, as the Soviet economy was not only very inefficient but the Soviet state yearly was overspending massively on its military and aid to its client states all over the world, yes the Soviet Afghan war was expensive but it failed in comparison to the massive cost of trying to catch up to the USA militarilly and technologically. as well as fighting proxy wars with the USA. The Soviet afghan war was probably the most expensive of the various proxy wars the Soviets and USA were doing and the Americans were probably paying a lot more than the Soviets but the Americans have a substantial bigger economy than the USSR and also had a very efficient gov and capitalistic economy. The Soviet communist command economy sucked and the Soviets profited when it was selling resources ironically to its capitalist enemies. 1st Chechen war 1994 to 1996: yes the Russians lost this war when the Russian generals bugged out and left their men in Chechnya in the aftermath of the successful Chechen guerilla offensive operation Jihad. However while there was a big stain and embarassment for Yeltsin and even talk of a coup vs. the yeltsin gov but yeltsin survived, the Russian economy did not collapse why? its because the West made sure Russia did not collapse with heavy massive Western investments in the Russian economy. In fact the Russian economy was booming at the time. and Yeltsin was able to go for another 4 years before handing presidency to Putin. Also the west did not support the Chechen rebels and did not want the Chechens to win as they were viewed as muslim terrorists by the west. Now the current Ukraine war 2022 to present. There is a big difference between the two earlier wars. The Russians are in bad relations with the USA and the EU and their allies. The Russians are under economic embargoes , the worst ever in history from the west. The current war has in two years had Russian military casualty rates exceeding the 1st and 2nd Chechen wars and soviet Afghan war combined. with tank and APC losses far exceeding those lost the in the three wars mentioned combined. This type of war was not seen in Europe and Russia since WW2 Eastern Front. Also Putin has a lot more power of governance of Russia compared to the leaders of the USSR and Yeltsin. The leaders of the USSR were more like spokesmen for the communist party of the USSR and policy was made after party meetings deals and agreements between the ruling Politburo. In Yeltsin's Russia, Yeltsin as drunk most of the time, so governance was done by his gov officials. Yeltsin himself did not have much power and was a front for Russian oligarchs who held the real power. Since Putin seems to hold central power in Russia and does not really have any able successors, well. after he goes, his successor wont have the influence and brains to hold Russia together. So a collapse is very possible very simliar to what happened after Ivan the Terrrible died in 1584, Russia was plunged into chaos called the Time of Troubles 1598 to 1613, as Ivan killed his eldest son, and his 2nd son Feodor who became Tsar after Ivan died. Tsar Feodor sucked bad, and was disinterested in ruling Russia, and historians even surmised he may have been mentally ill . The death of Tsar Feodor in 1598 started a civil war in the Russian empire which the boyars fought each other, and even saw a Polish invasion which captured Moscow. So in current day 21st century, you have a lot of oligarchs with their own private armies and Putin who would be compared to a nicer Ivan the terrible with no competent successor involved in a terrible war and enmity with the western powers. So yah when Putin dies, Time of Troubles 2.0 can happen in a violent succession which turns into a civil war.
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  5575. my view stalemate in a convnetional war sense, however the Russians could win this war anytime, but have to use large amounts of WMDs to do so. and in doing so will risk war with NATO, and destruction of the Russian economy. So Putin is in a dillemma here, if he leaves Ukraine back to pre war borders,Putin will be overthrown and probably get killed. the only way he can get the Ukrs to qui is to probably use WMDs large scale. since the Ukrs will not surrender and back down. if the Russians do that, the Russians might lose , since NATO will military intervene and the risk of war with NATO will be big. and Russia has no chance to win a conventional war with NATO unless of course NATO is stupid enough to invade Russian proper itself or a nuclear exchange ensues where no one wins. I personally think Putin knows this but is hedging things as the use of WMDs will be his last card to play. the Russian economy is slowly dying from sanctions. its dependent on high oil prices which wlll come down when there is a worldwide recession which is being forecast for 2023. the Russians cannot mobilize their population forever, eventually the population support for Putin will crack and you will have a general revolt. Also the longer theh war goes the more strain on the Russian economy as the war is getting more expensive to prosecute. The Russian army is also getting more dillapidated its getting to be more of a shadow of what it was at the start of hte war. Russians are using WW1 style human wave assaults in the Donbass against the Ukrs, the Russian are buying large amounts of iranian missles and drones, as well as artillery ammo from the Iranians and North Koreans(probably the Chinese too under the table probably thru North Korea). since Russian stocks of missle and artillery that were stored for decades do not work due to corruption and poor management.
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  5584. this war is very simliar to the winter war of 1940 and 1st Chechen war however the diffrence, while the Finns and Chechens barely had any foreign support, the Ukrainians have massive NATO and USA miltary , political and economic support. Also the Ukrs are a bit better equipped than the Finns in 40 and Chechens in 95-96. and also as motivated to fight as the Finns and Chechens but a bit better armed. with the most advanced USA EUro ATGMs, drones, and Manpads. Europe is mostly united in support of the Ukrs and in opposition to Putin heck even neutral Sweden, Finland and Switzerland are doing sanctions on the Russians, the FInns, and Chechens never had this level of support. So you have an increasinglyi well armed well motivated Ukrainian defenders who know their own territory and are defending and using NATO tactics with good intel on Russian troop movement and unit locations vs. a Russian enemy who is much better armed, with a lot more AFVs planes, numerical superiority but poorly motivated with low morale , poor intel on the Ukranian enemy, poor logstics, poor planning a collapsing economy, a restive population. = DISASTER...however still do not understimate the Russians since the Russians still have a massive firepower and numerical ladvantage so can inflict horrific damage, however um motivated poor morale troops holding even the best weapons can fail, we have seen that with the Russians in Finland winter war 1940, the Russians int he 1st chechen war 95-96, the LIbyans in the 80s Chad Toyota wars. or hey how about the opening months of Operation Barbarossa in 1941 or even the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939.
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  5684. Also an analogy comparing the German invasion of the USSR 1941 to 1945 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022 to current. In the German invasion of the USSR, the Germans had a excellent quality troops leadership and good morale and organization and at the start arguably the German soldiers were better equpped with good logistics. vs. the Soviets who had poor quality trained troops poor leadership, questionable logistics however the Soviets had more tanks and planes than the Germans but lost a lot of them due to poor tactics and logistics.and attacked with surprise at the start of hte invasion in Summer 1941, However the Soviets had high motivation to fight vs. the Germans throughout the war, The Germans were stopped at Moscow due to the Germans outrunning their logistics and the Soviet counterattacking hard which almost wrecked German army group center. made worse by the harsh winter weather. and Germans not being ready for it. and later as the war went. the Soviets massively helped by massive aid from the USA and Great Britain managed to push the Germans back by greatly improving Soviet logistical capabilities, and as tehe Soviets were winning battles Soviet morale greatly improved along with tactics and fighting abilities also reforms to the Soviet command structure helped streamline and make Soviets more efficient. So that by 1944, the Soviets have effectrively kicked the Germans out of the USSR and were invading Eastern Europe Compare this to the current war in Ukraine. Ukrainians and Russians have very similiar mentalities when it comes to war, if someone invades them they fight tooth and nail to kick the invader out. Russians suprise invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022 and from the get go while they occupied 40 percent of Ukraine they have been in a bumbling invasion with teh Russians being shown to have poor morale , poor leadership, poor quality troops, poor logistics , incompetent leadership, noithing like the Germans who invaded the USSR in 1941. in fact the complete opposite. vs. an initially surprised Ukrainians who had good logistics, good leadership, high morale and motivation. and later massive western aid to Ukraine coming to rival that of their commitment to the USSR in WW2. and just like the USSR in WW2, Ukraine has been improving in all aspects in just 11 months of war, while the Russians have been declining in fighting ability, going back to WW1 style tactics, if it took the Soviet 3 years to evict the Germans from he USSR. I think it can take 2-3 years for the Ukrs to evict Russia from Ukraine.
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  5690. My view, Pacific war , starting in Dec 1950 caused by US freezing of japanese assets in 1950. Japanese plan for conquering the Philippines , Hawaii, panama canal and landings in the US west coast. The Japanese would sweep hard across the pacific, however the going is hard in the Philippines, as the defenders give the Japanese heavy losses while falling. in about several months. Hawaii falls fast. Japanese also capture the Panama Canal. the USN Pacific fleet is virtually destroyed. Japanese make landings in the US west coast. in 1951 and capture parts of it but have a tough time going due to fierce resistance. , lots of atrocities vs. American civlians, while the USA is momentarilly cowed and stunned, there is great outrage and calls for war and revenge vs. the Japanese. While the other great powers would not side with anyone, the USA might probably get Mexico and a bunch of Latin American states on its side vs. Japan. with the USA itself invaded the USA mass mobilizes and swtiches to a war economy. Japanese are pushed out of the US west coast and panama by mid 1951Probalby would take the USA to 1953 to take the fight to the Japanese in the pacific There would be no nukes, and the USA would be fully focused on Japan. with nothing but unconditional surrender in mind despite attempts by the Japanese for a negotiated armistice. while the USA has overwhelming industrial might and a bigger population they are hampered by a poor military position at the start of the war and a much stronger japanese military. the war takes longer than our timeline, maybe takes even 6 years.US is very much straighforward not only evicting japanese military from the Pacific and USA territories but going straight for the jugular and for a possible invasion of the Japanese home islands. USA would probalb win in the end with massive losses and probably the conquest of the japanese home islands and the collapse of the Japanese empire, USSR probably takes advantage by seizing manchuria and Korea.
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  5792. when the Russians fail at this climate weapon against the Ukrs, and in fact, the Ukrs used the climate to inflict major defeats on the Russian army ala Winter war 1940, holy crap, Putin by spring wil have run out of options and his rivals and enemies will be sharpening the knives for him. I see the war ending in mid 2023, in a removal of Putin from power and collapse of the RUssian gov. in infighting and semi civil war. also leading to the collapse of law and order and collapse of the economy. So my prediction, Russia suffers major defeats in the winter of 2022-2023 , the Ukrs remain defiant even in the face of the harsh Ukr winter. and Russian mass drone and missle attacks which will probably peter out by early 2023 as the Russians will run out of missles and drones. and the west is still massively supplying the Ukrs will weapons and supplies equipment. and money. Russia has run out of options by spring of 2023. so what does Putin do call for more mobilization. A number of Russian republics refuse to join mobilization and there is unrest in the Russian republics. and Russian propogandists are openly calling for Putin to end the war either with nukes or withdraw completely from Ukraine. and also propogandists start calling for Putin to step down from power. In a bid to remain iin power in the face of the Ukrs major offensives an the Russians by this time have lost control of most of the Donbass. and have a tenous hold of hte Zaporizhya area, Putin orders the use of nukes, which is not only disobeyed but Russian army deposts Putin from power. Severe infighting in the Russian leadership leads to the collapse of the Russian gov. collapse of law and order and economy. A junta comprising of Russian military leaders , and various Russian civlian politicos take over pwoer in MOscow and call for a ceasefire and end to the Ukr war. By the end of the war in Mid 2023, the Russian army in Ukraine has collapsed its a mess. Russian units cohesion collapse and Russian troops become mobs of troops looting raping and mutinying , many start going back to Russia by any means, the Russian border areas are also severely affected by large groups of heavilly armed Russian troops who have turned into bandits also looting and raping in these areas. With the loss of central authority, the local Russian areas have to do their own law and order with local militias sprining up to protect their areas. In the end Ukraine wins the war with a collapse of the Russian gov. and central authority and a new peace junta taking over. and blaming all of their problems on Putin. Repatriation of Russian troops is difficult as the Ukrs have to fight mobs of Russian troops who have become bandits and criminals, Russians leave a lot of their weapons in Ukraine. as they withdraw back to Russia, its simply chaos and the Russian gov. is bankrupt that they ask for the help of NATO and Ukraine to help repatriate their troops. The new junta in Moscow with a tenous hold on the Russian fed. has asked for a proper peace treaty with ukraine, and no opposition to Ukraine joining NATO and EU and total withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea and arrest of Russian war criminals, in exchange for USA EU economic support dropping of all sanctions, no reparations and normalization of relations with the west. the Moscow gov is bankrupt and desperate to maintain hold on the Russian fed. Large poritions of the Russian army has mutinied due to non payment of wages , Russian repulics form their own militias and military forces as law and order has collapsed.
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  5793. Current Russian strategy is to hope the winter economic hardships on the Ukrs and Europeans will force the Ukrs to the negotiation table to agree on Russian terms. while the Russians build up their forces, train them properly as well as building fortifiucations in the Donbass and Crimea and Southern Kherson for a possible Ukr major offensive. the Russian offensives in the Donbass and threat of invasion from Belarus are all designed by the Russians to try to draw away Ukrainian troops and distract the Ukrs from launching major offensives against hte Russians. While the Russians bluster about how stupid and poor the Ukr military is, I believe the Russian military and gov leadereship are afraid of the growing strength and capability of the Ukrainian army and afraid of losing the war. This winter strategy wil fail for the Russians, and I think by Mach or April 2023. The Russians will change their strategy to basically causing as much casualties on the Ukrs forces as they can to force a Ukrs coming to the peace table on Russian terms, I think the Russian will use at first large amounts of chemical weapons. on the Ukrs. While causing a lot of Ukrs casualties, this will not work, and the ukrs will not only fight on but the Russians willl get total sanctions from the USA EU and their allies. and all other countries will be sancitoned the same way if they dont back total sanctions. Plus total sequestration of Russian property abroad. and if the Putin orders the use of nukes well...there is a good chance, his own military overthrows him, then its game over. My view war ends in mid to late 2023.
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  5797. More desperation from the Russians the Russians are LOSING this war. Their economy is shit and getting worse, while they are not running out of recruits any time soon, they are running out of vehicles and economy is shite. As I said before many a time since this war started in Feb 2022, the 2024 USA elections will be pivotal to victory, and when Biden wins 2024 , well it will be the start of Russia's downfall. Even more massive aid to the Ukrainians, and the removal of Putin from power which I think will occur in 2025. The elites will remove putin from power in 2025 with a 2nd term Biden admin noting that Russia cannot fight this war any longer, and suddenly Putin dies of natural causes, after a short power struggle, his successor announces an armistice and negotiations. and I think Russia will probably withdraw from all of Ukraine including the Crimea in return for removal of all sanctions, unfreezing of Russian assets in western banks, no war crimes tribunals for Russian leaders, no reparations from Russia for Ukraine. Also Russia does not say anything when Ukraine joins NATO and the EU later. shortly after the war is over after a general peace treaty is signed with the Russians relinquishing all land disputes with the Ukrainians and formalizing a Russo Ukrainian border. I predict after the war, Ukraine joins NATO and EU, economy massively booms due to massive reconstruction aid from the west. Meanwhile Russia goes into economic depression, social and political unrest to something approaching a civil war but not quite a civil war. Russia probably loses 25 percent of its current land mass to secession and new countries are formed the West props up the Moscow gov. while the Chinese and Turks support their favorite anti west Russian factions and secessionists. Russia will become a massive great game for USA China Turkey/Saudi Arabia. A geopolitical headache in the decades to come. Millions of Russians will refugee to the west. The fall of Putin will be a massive political event which will have massive political repercussions in the future. I can see Belarus and Georgia shortly after Putin is gone, get new Pro West govs. and in the future including with Armenia join the EU.
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  5826. Well from what I read, Putin is not looking to "win" the war as originally planned by replacing Zelensky with a Russian puppet. Now Putin wants regime survival , peace with honor with teh minimum of retaining the whole of Donbass and Crimea. at the very minimum. SO the plan now is to fortify his current holdings. freeze this war so it becomes a WW1 style of attrition. and to inflict so much damage to the Ukranians that they cry uncle or someone friendly to Putin like Trump becomes US pres. in 2025. The Ukrainians know this and will not play Putin's playbook. THe Ukrs will fight this war smart. Notice the Russians are building massive lines of trenches and fortifications stretching from Dinipro to Luhansk borders. and they are doing offensives to kcik the Ukrs out of the whole of the Donbass. The Ukrs are doing defensive actions causing as much damage to the Russians while limiting damage to themselves, the Ukrs will trade territory for massive Russian casualties. make the Russian pay heavilly for every meter. The idiots int he Kremlin who have been micromanaging this war from Day 1 have switched over to WW1 style infantry trench warfare. using WW1 style infantry attacks supported by heavy ari and artillery with Russian mech units acting as reserve emergency rapid reaction gap plugging units. Very similiar strategy the Iraqis used during the attirional phase of the Iran Iraq war of the 1980s. The Ukrs are still sticking to their Brigade level flexible maneuver warfare. the edge of the Ukrs is their flexible more decentralized command and control , Russians still have a rigid inflexible command and control. excellent leadership high morale and Ukrs artillery while outgunned heavilly by the Russians are much more accurate, Russians pray and spray just like WW1 and 2. Also Russian battlefield drones which are important for artillery spotting and fire control do not function in very cold weather . ukrs have no such problem. Ukrs also rotate their units to make them more effective in combat, Russians nope nothing like that. I think Putin will wait for the results of the USA pres. elections of 2024, try to hold on , after that if a new US pres. turns out to be Pro Ukraine, Putin will get really desperate, possibly use WMDs in the battlefield.
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  5848. Now as for the media saying a lot that trump is enamoured with Putin, Trump i like a giddy school boy around putin etc. etc. etc. Nope dont think so, since in the interview of Epstein as to what he thought of Trump, he said that Trump was an expert ingratiator, he is expert at buttering people up, stroking people egos so he can get a good deal then he backstabs them later, like his former business partners, black mails them , tells their wives of their infidelities, then uses that to bed them, then later swindles his business partners by not paying the full amount he owes them. since he has blackmail on them. I think Trump will do the same with Putin. Trump will backstab Putin. Trump will drain both Putin and zelensky for what they are worth, however even Trump and USA politicos, strategic planners, etc. they would like Russia to be properly weakened. so they can properly controlled and not a threat to their neighbours, Putin out and with weak leaders in power, and not coillapse in civil war but stable politically. Zelensky, well he is already controlled very much by the Americans. and they want to build up Ukraine so it can be a counter to a possible future resurgent Russia if Russia gets a another strong leader after Putin is gone. and also make money while doing it. since Trump would like all that sweet hundreds of billions of USD in Ukraine rebuild aid along with being the leader who saved Ukraine.and he downgrades and laughs at Biden saying this guy was mediocre in aid while I won the war or something like that, heck a nice Trump tower in Kyiv would be nice along with avenues being named after him.
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  5921. well the Russians have been pushing in Kupyansk since July 19 2023 with 100K men 900 tanks 400 artillery pieces and air support. Initially they tore a 8 KM wide hole in Ukr defence in the first week of the offensive but the problem is that the Ukrs really degraded the Russian logistics by HMARs and JDAMs on trains, ammo dumps fuel depots, rail heads. trucks, so much so the Russians did not have the fuel to take advantage of the hole and the Ukrs managed to plug it with reinforcements, the Russians have been doing constant multiple attacks here but not really advancing again, due to their fuel shortage problems since the front is far from the rail heads, and they need trucks to truck fuel and ammo to their soldiers and tanks from the rail heads, going thru few good roads, unfortunately many of these trucks were destroyed and Russian trucks are constantly sent to the front via rail. Also the Russians are attacking through open plains which are heavilly mined and the Ukr defenders are on high ground in good defences, that is why the Russians are having bad problems are heavy casualties trying to push teh Ukrs back, so the Russians are relying on small multiple attacks, and lots of artillery bombardment. If the Russians try to do a major attack their logsitics falls apart since it cant support a big breakthru attack. However the Russians in this front is well led, with good coordination , of course Russian troops still have poor morale nad training, and the Russians are using lots of Storm Z convict troops as cannon fodder and screening troops.
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  5935. ive already known for a while now that Trump has been bought by Putin a long time ago, probably has blackmail on him and Melania. and in the 2024 election Putin through his oligarchs funneled money through Musk and his buddies to Trump and the Rep super pacs and lobbies to effectively bribe the entire Rep part to nominate trump. Trump is effectively Putin's puppet. Same with Musk. I think the whole thing will probably piss off the Europeans and the Ukrainians and the negotiations will basically be not about ending the Ukraine war, but officiating a USA withdrawal from Ukraine. and minimizing the American support for NATO to the point that the Americans probably wont be supporting NATO if the RUssians ever attack. However I think Ukraine will not accept the peace deal and be defiant. and will be backed up by the Europeans. esp. UK, France and Germany. who will continue to send even more increased aid to Ukraine. The war will probably rumble on. with increased sanctions on Russia, from the Europeans, and sanctions being lifted on Russia by the USA. so now the Ukrainians will have to weather the storm until the 2028 elections and hope that the demos get elected again. and resume support for Ukraine, if the war is still ongoing. I think the lifting of USA sanctions on Russia will give the Russian economy a boost , however if that happens, I think the Europeans will retal unfreeze the 300 billion USD Russian assets held in the EU and give them to Ukraine. I can also see EU nations ramp up their arms productions and send them to Ukraine in addition with Ukraine buying off weapons abroad.
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  5963. ven if Trump wins and comes into office in 2025, looking at the how the Russian army has greatly weakened since Feb 2022. I think the Russian army would have been so degraded that even if Trump pulled the plug on supporting Ukraine, Ukraine can still win the war. by early 2025, I think the Russian economy would be near collapse or in really bad shape. even much stronger sanctions on Russia, I think Russia by that time has become a pariah state to the west. with total sanctions put on it. along with oil prices going down. and the Ukrs having recaptured major portions of their lost territory with only parts of the Donbass and the Crimea and the south still under Russian control. also having lost possibly 500K Casualties. and cant really mobilize more troops due to unrest in Russia. with a Pro Ukraine pres. in office in 2025 Russia is screwed. Im not surprised war ends with teh Russians pushed back to pre 2022 war borders in 2025 or withdraws voluntarilly. but total sanctions dont relent until the Russians fully withdraw from Crimea, and Putin steps down from power and democratic elections are called in Russia, along with prosecution of Russian war criminals. I think the ongoing unrest will get worse as Russians perceive the war to be a failure and Putin a liabiliy. along with near economic collapse. along with a much weakened putin hold on the miltiary and gov. along with oligarchs and regional govs having their own PMCs to challenge Putin's hold on power. Yep a possible situation similiar to the start of the Mexican revolution 1910 when various forces united to overthrow the gov of Porfirio Diaz, a Mexican dictator who held power for a long time( 27 years) with similarities on Putin(in power for 23 years).
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  5977. I predict Trump will be impeached and arrested before the 2028 elections , in fact, he will go down as the worst USA president EVER....not surprised if Trump dies in prison. or someone assasinates him, as for his puppet master Musk, I predict the guy will be stripped of his Canadian and USA citizenship. and arrested and imprisoned, his assets frozen, and his companies broken up. not surprised if he dies in prison or is assasinated. JD Vance, probably career kaput. arrested in prison. I think the next major turning point will be the 2026 USA senate and house elections , which the demos will sweep, and Trump will not accept this outcome and meddle in it causing a massive consitutional crisis and also with a US in possible economic recession, will cause the most massive nationwide protests not seen since the 2020 BLM protests. I think Trump will react to this challenge to his power by calling for martial law which I think will be rejected by the US military , I think the US military will stand down, and Trump will be arrested. same with his VP JD Vance. and I think the future democrat speaker of the house will be the next USA president interim possibly Hakkim Jeffries takes over,. until the 2028 USA elections. which the reps will be massively defeated in a landslide win by the dems in the house senate and Presidency. The Rep party will be so defeated and humiliated as there is witch hunt on MAGA politicos that it will take a decade before they recover. Then the USA now with a complete 180 personality change goes after Russia. alleging massive interference in the 2024 electrions and backing Trump admin in trying to break up the western alliance, the west will coordinate to destroy Putin.
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  6007. The raising of the interest rate besides causing a global recession/depression will do another think massive crash in all the markets, commodities, stock, crypto, real estate etc. etc. etc. only thing safe is USD and treasury bonds. Now the crash in oil and gas prices will result in the end of the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy is heavilly reliant these days on oil and gas sales, and while the Russians have prepared for this by building a 600 billion USD war pile, the war is costing the Russians 1 billion USD a day. and the sanctions, the Euros weaning themselves of Russian energy exports and and its not only the war costs but it costs a lot to run a massive country like Russia. WHile the west will suffer recessions , the 3rd world and Russia will suffer a economic depression. the Russian economy will collapse . and this will affect the war ability of the Russian army in Ukraine as the logistics get well worse as the Russian economy cant finance the war. and the Russians are using firepower to compensate for their poor quality soldiers and logistics and using firepower means they are expending a lot of ammo and weapons which means more costs to the war. The Russians may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but the rate they are doing this means it they will be experiencing ammo and weapon shortages as the war goes , made worse by poor logistics, poor long term storage management, the Russians will be forced to buy weapons and ammo from the Chinese to compensate, the longer the war goes the worse the Russian economy gets.
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  6063. I think Pokrovsk will be not only epic fight but become the Stalingrad of this war(Zelenskygrad or Putingrad). The pivotal battle. Since I predict Kamala Harris will win the USA Presidential elections, the dems will sweep the house and senate, the new Kamala presidency will significantly raise the military aid to Ukraine using Russian assets confiscated in the west. also there will be lifting of all restrictions on western weapons use on Russia by Ukraine, more western jets to Ukraine. not surrprised if South Korea starts selling large numbers of artillery ammo to the USA to ship to Ukraine, the kamala win will send political shockwaves throughout Russia, in fact the elites will begin grumbling hard to end the war in Ukraine and remove Putin from power. Putin in desperation needs a major win on the battlefield and he sees Pokrovsk as the battle that will decide the survival of his regime. Putin will use a major victory at Pokrovsk to justify to the elites not to remove him from power. For the Ukrainians they see Pokrovsk as the perfect area to grind down the Russian army not only that but if they inflict defeat on the Russians here, it might just end the Putin regime. and bring about a peace favorable to UkraIne. also while Pokrovsk is an important town for the Ukrainians its not critical, and yes capturing Pokrovsk the Russians will be halfway conquering the Donbass but still the Russians still have to conquer the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk along with various villages along the way all heavilly fortified by the Ukrainians. So for the Russians losing at Pokrovsk is critical for the Russians, but not critical to the Ukrainians.
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  6077. not surprised RUssia is pulling out all the stops to take bakhmut by months end or early March 2023. I heard TOS thermobaric missles and vacuum bombs are being used more and more on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut and in Vulhedar. and as Prigozhin said , it takes around a week for them to take a fortified house. and the Russians are advancing in the Bakhmut urban areas. Stalingrad time. Also Russian tactics have improved with them stop using their human wave assaults which characterized the Bakhmut battle in in late 2022 to Jan 2023. and now using small groups of men doing frontal infantry attacks to conserve their troops and spread them out. so they dont become good bunched up targets for Ukr artillery. heavy weapons. Also Putin has stopped micromanaging this war starting with him appointing Garasimov to oversee the war, and delegating him to command and giving Garasimov freedom and flexibility to conduct the Ukraine war. This is only done by dictators like Putin when he is losing the war(Stalin did the same thing in WW2 so did Saddam to a certain extent in the mid 80s). I think Garasimov and Shoigu have been reorganizing the Russian army in Ukraine, improving its logistics, tactics, etc. trying to better train their units. However I think this can only go as far. True they improved their logsitcs, along with command and control coordination with their air force. but still 75 percent of their troops are still poor quality poor morale poor trained mobiks. with poor leadership and a inflexible Soviet style command and control system.
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  6113. for once I actually agree with Merarsheimer, and even if Trump wins and comes into office in 2025, looking at the how the Russian army has greatly weakened since Feb 2022. I think the Russian army would have been so degraded that even if Trump pulled the plug on supporting Ukraine, Ukraine can still win the war. by early 2025, I think the Russian economy would be near collapse or in really bad shape. even much stronger sanctions on Russia, I think Russia by that time has become a pariah state to the west. with total sanctions put on it. along with oil prices going down. and the Ukrs having recaptured major portions of their lost territory with only parts of the Donbass and the Crimea and the south still under Russian control. also having lost possibly 500K Casualties. and cant really mobilize more troops due to unrest in Russia. with a Pro Ukraine pres. in office in 2025 Russia is screwed. Im not surprised war ends with teh Russians pushed back to pre 2022 war borders in 2025 or withdraws voluntarilly. but total sanctions dont relent until the Russians fully withdraw from Crimea, and Putin steps down from power and democratic elections are called in Russia, along with prosecution of Russian war criminals. I think the ongoing unrest will get worse as Russians perceive the war to be a failure and Putin a liabiliy. along with near economic collapse. along with a much weakened putin hold on the miltiary and gov. along with oligarchs and regional govs having their own PMCs to challenge Putin's hold on power. Yep a possible situation similiar to the start of the Mexican revolution 1910 when various forces united to overthrow the gov of Porfirio Diaz, a Mexican dictator who held power for a long time( 27 years) with similarities on Putin(in power for 23 years).
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  6189. Post war, the new military junta in the Russian gov solidifies its power, blames everything on Putin. starts negotiations with the west to normalizing relations and economic aid as Russia is bankrupt. the economy in ruins, and unrest is growing. Russia has just lost a major war with 200K casualties thousands of expensive tanks aircraft equipment lost. its prestige in tatters. an all time low. and many soldiers are asking for their pay which the Russian gov which is bankrupt cant fullfill and this has resulted in mutinies and unrest. esp. in the Russian border areas to Ukraine. Russians have also withdrawn from Belarus. and protests are restarted there the Belarus military is not suppressing the unrest and Lukashenko has fled the country. New democratic gov. in Minsk. takes over with Belarus military support. After tense negotiations, in return for the Russians totally withdrawing form Ukraine including Crimea and the Donbass puppet states. There will be a formal peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia with teh proviso of NATO coming to Ukraine's aid if invaded. also there will not be any Russian opposition if Ukraine joins the EU and NATO. and all war crimes will not be pursued against Russia, the Russian gov. will prosecute their own war criminals, and all sacntions will be removed, pre war diplomatic economic relations between NATO EU and Russia will be restored and substantial economic aid be given to RUssia. Despite all this, most western investors do not go back to Russia, and there is a lot of unrest esp. in Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia go thru a decade long period of unrest which sees Russia losing 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession. Also China masively invests in Russia whcih results in the west while distasteful also give a lot of economic aid and investment into Russia. to keep the Moscow gov on side. Ukraine on the other hand receives hundreds of billions of USD of economc aid in a massive marshal plan to rebuild the country.
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  6196. disagree with Leland, Ukrs are currently training their tens of thousands of mobilized reserves so they can adequately be reserives in a major Ukraine counter offensive which will collapse a Russian front. THe Russians are in a very bad position with limited offensive capability, no reserves, low supply low ammo, low morale, bad logistics, Ukrainians have outfight the Russian in most fields. I think the Ukrainians will hit the Russians in the South aiming to kick the Russians out of the Crimea and the Donbasss. Collapse the Russian southern front. The most stable and strongest Russian front is the southern front but even that the Russians are in a shakey position. and somewhat better situation than the other fronts. The Ukrs will let the Russian do their offensive in the south, then when the Russians have expended their shot, Ukrainian counteroffensive a major one with tens of thousands of well trained reserves, probably by next month April to may 2022 timeline. I think the entire Russian southern front will collapse and the Ukrs can probably retake most of the crimea. that would be a catastrophic defeat for the Russians. not surprised the Russians use massive amounts of chemical weapons to just to try to stop the offensive. A major Russian battlefield defeat of this size will probably convince putin its time to cut and run . I think final negotiations, Russia will probably annex the donbass. and Russians withdraw from all of Ukraine. Putin will probably remain in power for the forseeable future having spun the war as a war of liberation for the Donbass. and his attacks on Kiev and Kharkov and others are just to help gain Donabass independence. and he will blame his generals and ministers for the war. and purge them. I expect Putin to increase his dictatorial controls over Russia. millions of Russians might flee and become refugees in Europe. I also think thousands of Russian soliders will not go home and opt to be refugee in Europe.
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  6213. or the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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  6245. The Russians have 20 percent of their GDP supporting their war, and this will get bigger when the Russians get desperate like the Ukrs needing to mobilize more troops due to ongoing massive casualties. and the Ukrs inflict major defeats ont he Russians, the Russians will not stop until Putin is gone from power. Just like when Stailn died and the Korean war ended. No matter the outcome of this war, Russia will be ruined economically after this war, and have a fragile political situation as well as being a pariah to the west. and as said a fragile poliical situation with oligarchs and gov and military officials forming their own PMCs private armies during the war, and wihen Putin is gone, you have a problem of succession to the leadership of Russia and all the contestants have their own private armies with no political party control, a Russian gov in chaos, military is disarray not paid with a lot of mutinies getting recruited by private armies who will actually pay and a economic collapse in teh background, yep when you get an economic collapse and political chaos, the Russian military will not get paid. and you have political factions with their own private armies in a fight for succession and they will pay you get a lot of the Russian military mutinying to go to the private armies. and you have a bloody civil war, then you have secessionists like the Chechens with their own miltiaries, militias who will form their own republics with support from China, Turkey, USA etc. The next Syria will be the Russian federation, if you thought the Syrian civil was bad the upcoming Russian civil war will be massive a syrian civil war on steroids and crack. and also add in nukes. and chemical and bio weapons. The USA and NATO will be desperate to secure.
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  6250. seems like the Ukrainians have been raising merry hell in the Kursk region, its a confused fight but the only one confused seems to be the Russians, the Ukrainian have full intel well coordinated know what they are doing, the Russians are just throwing anything and anyone they can get their hands on and with teh FSB taking over , its so bad that most of the Russian troops they are sending have been units in the process of being rebuilt after taking heavy losses in Urkaine. , its so rushed that many units are lacking even radios, drones, tanks, APCs etc. Just a warm body and a gun seem to be good enough to be send to try to stop or slow down the Ukrainians. Russian reinforcing units seem to be coming in and being assigned to already preexisting Russian units in the area eseentially rebuilding them. Then many of these units are being deployed shoulder to shoulder in order to create a semblance of a defence line to prevent Ukrainians from raiding their flanks and rear areas. Detachments of Rosgvardia and Chechens are being deployed as minders to make sure no one runs away. Then the Russians are donbassing the Ukrainians with continous multiple attacks. However the problem is that the Russians do not have much intel on the whereabouts of the Ukrainians who are constantly on the move and while the Russians are continiously trying to attack or advance to suspected Ukrainian positions, the Ukrainians are ambushing and attacking the Russians with FPV drones and accurate artillery strikes. along with ambushes.
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  6260. well Ukraine cant rely on the USA anymore, Im thinking of this scenario Russian and Ukrainian negotiations collapse in 2025 due to really shit unacceptable terms from Putin. USA lifts all sanctions on Russia , unfreezes its assets in the USA and stops all aid to Ukraine. However the EU , with UK France, Germany, Poland Czechs, Finns, Swedes, Baltic states, Italy, Spain taking the lead massively raises miltiary and economic aid to Ukraine, starts ramping up weapons productions. massively. also UK France lift all restrictions to use their weapons to hit Russian soil. Also possible deployment of UK, Polish, and French troops to Ukraine. Putin rattles the nuke saber at the EU NATO , and the French and UK rattle their nukes back. ignoring Trumps statements at not protecting NATO nations from Russian attack which only makes the rest of the EU and NATO even more hostile to the USA> USA arms embargoes the EU and NATO then imposes high tariffs on NATO and EU nations supporting Ukraine. war goes on in Ukraine. with weapons and supplies sourced all over the world to support Ukraine. Also Ukraine mobilizes its population for more recruits and also does a Russian style foreign volunteer recruitment to get more manpower to fight the Russians. A European expeditionary force to Ukraine is formed from UK , French, Polish, Italian , Spanish, Czech military forces. sent to Ukraine does not fight the RUssians but put in reserve standby. Also European pilots and Euro combat jets sent to Ukraine rapidly and fly combat missions vs. the Russians. WIth the USA failing, and washing its hands of Ukraine, the Europeans step up to the plate. if the Russians escalate to nukes chemical weapons or doing a Ukrainian operational collapse there will be war with the Europeans. So in 2025 you may have a situation of a Russia that the heavy hand of sanctions lifted from its economy and a Ukraine possibly resurgent and still kept alive and fighting hard with renewed massively increased European support. and the USA washing its hands completely of the conflict and growing more isolationist. and focusing instead on China.
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  6266. well I think what would end up happening is that peace in Ukraine which would probably come in mid to late 2025 will be the war freezing at the line of control to what the Russians currently have like the Korea DMZ border line where buffer zones will seperate the Russians and Ukrainians manned by European troops So the Russians will get to annex all the regions they conquered from Ukraine , all sanctions lifted , all Russian assets in western banks unfrozen. normalized relations between USA and Russia and Ukraine cannot join the EU and NATO. in return, Ukrainians get billions of USD in rebuild aid from USA and EU(with teh caveat Trump , Musk and their companies get the lions share of rebuild infrastructure contracts), Ukraine also gets billions of USD worth of US weapons, and not surprised after all that Zelensky steps down or is defeated in a future election. I think a future Ukrainian gov will be hostile to Russia and probably rearm retrain and reorganize its army for a a future war with Russia with the help of western countries most notable USA, UK , France Poland Baltic states , Sweden Germany etc. Russia in the meantime will be busy trying to rebuild its economy and de militarize its economy while trying to rearm and modernize its army, Russia wont be in any position to invade anyone. its army while marge has been totally discredited and embarassed. and Putin now has to focus on his economy as well as solidifying his grip on power as after the war is over, there will be recriminations vs. putin from the Russian elite questioning his ability to rule as the war while balyhooed as a victory by the Russian gov is not viewed as a victoiry by the Russian elites. also Russia is destabilized by high crime rates from returning veterans and the 20 perecnt of Ukraine the Russians conquered probably needs many billions of USD to rebuild , since what the Russians hold mostly is ruins. also many PMCs running around in Russia which is veyr dangerous to suppress. I think end of this war even with a so called Russian "victory" results in unrest and destabilization of the Putin regime esp. after Putin dies wtih no clear successor or a successor with his abilities.
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  6279. Surovikin has been VIP member of wagner since last year. after he got replaced by Garasimov. Looks like Putin does not like competent generals so he demoted Surovikin and put in the Garasimov yes man haha. Looks like Ukraine will win the war due to Russian leadership competence haha, the greatest Ukrainian general is putin due to his constant meddling and fucking up. Imagine start of the war , the Russians had a massive advantage in firepower and numbers, supposedl 2nd strongest power in the world, Ukraine had a lot weaker military, Russian attacked with surprise, Russia had 10X the firepower and tanks and economy compared to Ukraine and the Russians forecasted 3 days they would conquer Ukraine Kiev would fall. well due to Putin's meddling NOW 1 year 5 months into the war, Ukraine has reclaimed 50 percent of what it lost to Russia, Ukrainians are in the middle of a major offensive and slowly gaining ground. Russia had lost 300K casualties several thousand AFVs hundreds of combat aircraft, worst losses since WW2, massive loss of prestige, Russian troops and leadership were made to look like incompetents homer simpsons. while the Ukrs have massively improved their army to be the strongest army in Europe due to massive NATO support. able leadership , high morale and good tactics. and of course now Putin best troops tried to overthrow him , hmmmm. only 1.5 years into the war, and the Russians are falling apart hahahah. a few more major Russian defeats in Ukraine, and there will be a bigger rebellion vs. Putin this time it will not stop until it reaches Moscow. Imagine, more defeats = more mobilization = more rebellion. Russians have truelly fucked this war to defeat.
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  6308. well the currently Ukr strategy is to inflict as much damage to the Russians as possible with limited losses to the ukrs. trade space for casualties on the Russians. let the Russians pay heavilly for every meter they advance . and the Russians are game to this, and bulling their way thru. The more Russians die in their offensives the more they have to mobilize the less support Putin has back home. more chances of unrest. also in the background is the looming threat of a worldwide economic recession and depression happening this year or in 2024 , in recessions, oil prices usually crash and the Russian economy 60 percent of it is dependent on the oil price being 30 USD just to pay for its opearting costs. and Russia has been selling at a 20 to 30 percent discount. on current oil prices which are currently 72 USD. Imagine if in a crash the oil prices crash to 30 USD. Europeans put an oil price cap on Russian oil at 30 USD. Russian economy will crash hard. and a collapsed Russian economy will lead to unrest. Also a very important factor is the US presidential elections of 2024, if a Pro Ukraine pres. is in the white house by 2025, and you have all the things beforehand I mentioned happening, a collapsed Russian economy , mass unrest in Russia, a losing grinding war in Ukraine with the Ukrainians still fighting hard and not giving up at all and inflciting major defeats on the Russian army. Putin may well be forced to use nukes in Ukraine. to force an end to the war. and for regime survival.
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  6404. the Ukr Kharkov offensive in late 2022 was a unmitigated disaster for the Russians, the worst they suffered in the war, the Russians lost several hundred tanks and APC lost , as the Russian front there collapsed, Russian troops ran away abandoned their vehicles and positions even stole bicycles and ran back to Russia, at Izyum alone, the Ukrainians captured 450 tanks and APCs in various states of disrepair since Izyum was a Russian logistics and vehicle repair hub. Also the Russians in their desperation sent in their conscrupts who were barely trained many only trained for a week at most. sent with T-90s and 80s and whatever tank or APC was at hand but they also got creamed and defeated by the Ukrainians resulting in these new recruits panicking abandoning their vehicles and running away. It was that bad. So the Russians just gave several hundred tanks and APCs including a handful of T-90Ms, one of which was last seen being shipped to the USA for study. haha. Many of the abandoned tanks were in good condition, Ukrs just repaired refuelled them and deployed them against their former Russian owners...LOL. it was that embarassing for Russia hahaha and I find it amusing that Russians like to crow about the few Leopard 2s the Ukrs lost hahahaha. while the Russians lost several thousand Russians tanks ranging from vintage museum T-55s to the latest T-90Ms, so far in this war, the Ukrs lost far less. In fact its so bad the biggest tank donor to the Ukrs are the Russians Its that EMBARASSING. Its so bad that before the war , 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the Russian federation. now 1.5 years later, 75 percent of Russian tanks in service were made during the time of the USSR. its so bad not only are the Russians bringing out their T-55s from storage which the last time the Russians used them in large numbers was during hte invasio oif Czechoslovakia in 1968, the SOviet never used them in Afghanistan. heck its even worse the Russians are bringing out their T-10 heavy tank, made before the T-55 hahaah. So what next , will the Russians bring out....IS-3s and T-34s hahahahaah.
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  6425. well I think Putin has been micromanaging this war right down to teh brigade level. his generals are there to carry out his orders to the letter. Putin is probably advised by Shoigu and Garasimov and yep Putin is the secret weapon of the Ukrainians hahahaa. Putin's indept amateurish micromanagment of the Russian war in Ukraine has led to disaster so much so, before the war Russian was much more superior to Ukraine in terms of military and economy , Ukraine was predicted to fall within 3 days to a week. Now 1.5 years later, Ukraine is stronger than they were before the war, their air force is still flying and supporting Ukr military offensives, and the Ukrs have retaken 50 percent of the territory they lost to Russia since FEb 2022, and they dealt Russia a massive blow in manpower losses now estimated to be 250K to 300K(or even more ) casualties 4-5,000 tanks, a hundred or so aircraft. the Russian also lost their black sea flagship the Moskva and Russian cities are getting bombed by Ukrainian drones. and to top it all off, the the Ukrainians are doing major offensives vs. the Russians breaking thru their trenches and fortifications. while the Russian offensives fail due to the inability to protect their logistics adequately from Ukrainian attacks not to mentkion the continuing low morale poor training of Russian troops. Also Putin's political standing has been decaying and can be shown with Prigozhins attempted coup mutiny whatever. A stark example of this Putin micromanaging disaster mismanagement of Russian forces is the attempted massive 100K men 900 tank Russian offensive into the Kharkov oblast which started in July 19, 2023, the Ukrainians had one brigade defending the area and it took the Russians one week to punch a 8 KM wide hole int he Ukrainian defences fighting one Brigade, but since Russian logistics are so poor and cannot handle a offensive this big, and the fact that the Ukrainians have been hitting their logistics hard with misssles and JDAMs and also compounded by the fact, that the Russians in this offensive are still dependent heavilly on railways and trains to supply their troops and the Russian offensive is far from their rail heads and their supplies have to be transported by trucks into an area which have few good roads, lots of open fields heavilly mined by the Ukrainians , and the Ukrainians defending on Open ground so they attack to attack up hill vs. entrenched Ukrainians. and the fact, the Ukrainians are continually hitting the trains and trucks and ammo dumps that it took the Russians heavy losses and a week to push the Ukrainians back, yes they did inflict heavy losses on the Ukraianians and tore and 8 KM wide hole in the Ukrs defenses but hte Ukrs were able to plug it quickly since the Russians ran out of fuel and ammo that they were not able to exploit the breech. and the Ukrs counteratttacked and as of this writing the Russians are being driven back to their starting positions, the Ukrs withdew intact fighitng and were reinforced by a few brigades. the only thing slowing down the Ukrs are the heavy Russian air and artillery support. Yep its funny the Ukrainians who were written off last year are now doingf major offensive pushing back the Russians. while the Russians cannot even do major offensives anymore due to poor managment of their logistics and micromanagement from a moron who believes only in his own reality which is quite divorced as to what is happening in the field. Very amusing.
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  6445. Not surprised the Russian response is shit and slow since the Russian officers are trained Soviet style meaning no flexibility always stick to the plan, but if there is no plan everything goes to shit. That is why you see the Russian response so slow desperate poorly coordinated. Basically its order from the Russian leaders, send everyone there including the cooks janitors etc. and stop the Ukrainians. with what they can be equipped with, meanwhile, the Russian units in Ukraine are not withdrawing and even attacking since the Russian head guys probably think they have the forces on hand to stabilize the situation and dont need to withdraw. so they are sticking to the plan that they have which is to attack, even when their supply lines have been cut, so yes the Russians can attack but it expends a lot of their supply and if their supplies are cut well they cant attack or their attacks will be disasters with units runnning out of fuel and ammo while attacking which has happened to the Russians many times before, The Ukrainians want the Russians in Ukraine to keep on attacking since they will expend precious supplies to do so while their supply lines have been cut, since if the Russians are out of supply , it makes it easier for the ukrainians in a major counterattack to break thru the Russina lines and create an operational victory something similiar to the Ukrainian 2022 late offensive. which collapsed 3 Russian divisions and the Russians lost 450 tanks and APCs mostly abandoned.
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  6501. Russian criminal incompetence and corrption in the prosecution of the Ukraine war will lead to their defeat and civil war in Russia. I firmly believe that Russia will be defeated in this war when they go into civil war, there is chaos in the Russian military command caused by starting with a biden win in 2024, democrat majority in the house and senate, passive of massive Ukraine aid bills in 2025 possibly dwarfing the past aid bills. Which leads to major battlefield victories for Ukraine in 2025 to 2026, along with start of major economic problems for Russia starting in 2025. and Putin desperate move for a general mobilization in 2026. leads to protests, uprisings, refusals to draft, violence, and since Russia's security forces are brtual, probably lead to mass killings of protesters. which leads to a general uprising in the Russian public and armed forces. As the Russians have a command and control chaos, the Ukrainian launch major offensives collapsing the Russian lines in Ukraine. something not seen since Desert storm 1991. with mass surrenders and desertions of Russian troops dissolving whole Russian military units as their officers abandon them. Ukraine will take back everything it lost including Crimea as Russia goes into civil war and in negotiations. and why do I think Russia will go into civil war, well the war has degraded the economy of Russia, hollowed it out, it may seem to grow but its growing due to gov spending massive gov spending into the war, and about 40 percent of the Russian economy is geared to the war and growing, the Russian civilians are not benefiting from it. and this growth is not sustainable and is overheating the Russian economy. all it needs is a major crisis to collapse the Russian economy. and also hundreds of Russian PMCs have been formed by oligarchs, corporations , political parties, regional governors and even private individuals and nationalist groups. If Putin goes down well you have lots of PMCs and no central control guess what happens next...CIVIL WAR. As Igor Girkin said, if Russia is defeated in this war, a Russian civil war will occur much like 1917 where there are hundreds of militias and private armies, a militia for every neighbourhood as he says. and the death toll of this civil war will exceed Russian deaths in Ukraine.
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  6507. hahah so PUtin thinks, I think what will happen with a trump win, Trump hosts a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, I think war ends in 2025 with the Russians retaining whatever territory they conquered in a korean war style armistice, some sanctions lifted , Russian assets in western banks unfrozen. and a threat if Russia decides to restart the war again, USA will turn back the military aid taps back on. Also for the Ukrainians they will get hundreds of billions USD in reconstruction aid from the USA with the companies of Trump and his buddies favoured int he reconstruction. However no NATO and EU membership for Ukraine. Putin will spin this as a victory. and will now focus on rebuilding his economy and military. The Ukrainians do the same. with a focus on its military. Ukrainian economy massively booms during reconstruction, however the Russian economy suffers a massive downturn. with Russia finding it very difficult to transition back from a military to a civilian economy since many sanctions are still up esp. from the EU. hyperinflation comes to Russia. also Russia does not have the money to exploit and reconstruct the territories it conquered and is immigrating Russians into these territories. which are in ruins. Putin regime survives but his political hold on Russia has been severely damaged by the war, the Russians dont see a win in the Ukraine war they see it as a defeat with the way their military performed and how their economy went into hyperinflation and depression mode with no end in sight. and also coupled with heavy handed ways PUtin is trying to keep in power by purges and possibly even martial law in certain areas in Russia. I think while Putin wants to finish his Ukrainian problem, his gov and military leadership really have no appetite for him, and probably seek to replace him in case he decide to restart the war again.
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  6508. Ukraine will win this war not by defeating the Russians in the battlefield but by outlasting Russia political will to fight this war, I think Putin's winter strategy will fail, when this happens, by March 2023, his next strategy is to cause as much Ukrainian losses on the battlefield that the Ukrs will agree to peace terms, so Putin will start using WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons. Putin has his back to the wall, with a slowly collapsing economy Putin wants to force the Ukrs to peace terms on Russia's favour ASAP. so Putin's regime will survive. Putin knows he cant keep on mobilizing, and he cant be in a long war since the Russian economy cant support the war esp. under sanctions and the oil prices will be dropping due to a looming worldwide recession. Once the oil prices drop to below 50 USD , the Russian economy simply cannot support a major war. The use of chemical weapons will outrage the west and invite total sanctions on the Russians, when dead Ukr children dead of Nerve gas are shown on social media, there will be great ourrage and call for total economic sanctions on the Russians which include no trade from the 1st world nations and their allies, confiscation of all Russian assets in sanctioning countries, and sanctions on any nation still trading with Russia. Also a bit higher aid is sent to Ukraine. along wtih ATACMs, western tanks, jets. Ukrs in revenge start hitting Russian territory more with drones and missles. by mid 2023 Putin strategy has failed , his support is rapidly waning , his economy rapidly collapsing, so he plays his last card to birng the Ukrs to the peace on his terms and Putin will use multiple tactical nukes in hte battlefield. I think when he orders its use , by this time his back is really to the wall, and he thinks in his mind, the west wont do anything if he uses nukes in Ukraine. despite threats from the USA. In this case I think the Russian mlitary wont obey the use of tac nukes in Ukraine and have Putin arrested and deposed. New Russian gov takes over which is probably a Russian military junta. The new Russian gov realizes there is no way to win the war. and using nukes invites war with NATO, The new Russian gov. ends the war in Ukraine. and after negotiations orders the withdrawal to the Pre invasion borders of 2022. in exchange most sanctions are lifted relations are restored with the west, the war is blamed on Putin and his buddies, who either are arrested, dead or escaped to another country. The withdrawal to pre war borders is more or less orderly. war is over.
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  6511. well I think the Russians will tire of this war, when they get economically affected. or directly affected by the war, like being forcecibly sent against their will. Putin knows there will be rebellion if this happens. So Putin has tried to use first the convicts, that served his purpose for like a year then got depleted fast, the foreign volunteers he got ten of thousands of them but the problem is that they are not enlisting fast and large enough to replace the casualty rate which is like 1500 to 2k casualties a day. I think the local Russians poor are stil lhis largest enlistment pool but its not enough , now the North Koreans who I hear are being paid 2K USD per month per soldier to rent so Putin wants 125K NK soldiers so Putin will have to pay 250 million USD per month along with tech transfers. I heard these troops are being paid for with currency USD to be precise. and of course its going to the NK gov not the soldiers. and the soldiers I hear are from the regular NK army. so what are the quality of soldiers they are getting . its shit of course. The NK recruits are better in quality over the Russians since better discipline they start out having been already trained for years. However NKs cant communicate since most dont speak Russian. Morale comparable as its not their country they are fighting for. and the Russians are only in it for the money. The foreign volunteers are the worse of the RUssian recruits even lower morale, cant speak the language so no coordination. and they are deemed the lowest in terms of the supply totem pole.
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  6746. I still believe war ends in 2025 or in 2026 after a Kamala harris win in 2024 , elites remove putin from power in 2025 or in 2026, peace talks happen, and Russia withdraws from Ukraine and Crimea, in exchange for all sanctions lifted, normalized relations with the west, all Russian assets unfrozen. no reparations, no criminal prosecution for Russian leaders. and a formal peace treaty recognizing borders, shortly after Russia says nothing when Ukraine joins NATO and the EU. The fall of the Putin gov and defeat in the Ukrainian war will have massive worldwide effects, like the far right and far left lose substantial funding, I can see the fall of the maga movement. and the far right parties in Europe. Trump going to prison. Same with Orban and the Slovak leader . As fro Ukraine, Ukraine booms economically due to hundreds of billions of USD pumped into its economy during reconstruction. Russia meanwhile goes thru time of troubles 2.0 for a few decades. its like the 90s but on steroids, Russian oligarchs backed by their PMCs controlling the Russian economy and gov. Uncontrolled crime and corruption and a depressed economy with hyperinflation, Russian gov army and currency all a joke. Millions of Russian refugees to the west, Russia becomes a hub for criminal activity and non stop drug and weapons smuggling to Europe. Russia becomes a massive failed Narco state. the most dangerous country in Europe. and Russia becomes a great game of influence between USA and China for its resources. and geo political location. Oligarchs and foreign powers make sure no leader like Putin ever comes to power again.
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  6785. well the Kremlin is going thru this on cheapo. not paying the men poorly supplying them, trying to get enought money to fund the war and outlast the Ukrainians. The Goal now for Putin is regime survival. with the most minimum territory being the Donbass and Crimea, without those Putin is doomed. and even though Putin manages to get a "win" in this war, which is probably 25 percent of the country, and I do think the war will end sometime in 2025-2026. with the 2024 USA presidential elections being pivotal to the outcome of hte war, If a Pro Peace pres. is elected and ends up cutting off aid to Ukraine (or drastically lowering it) and forcing the Ukrainians to negotiate.with Russia having the upper hand or Biden is reelected and war aid continues which makes Putin even more desperate that he makes some serious mistakes which can get his overthrown. and the Russians and Ukrs negotiate an end to this war with the Ukrainians having the upper hand in final negotiations. Either way the war ends, I think the very serious strains the war put on the Russian economy and military will really be felt, like I think by the time the war ends in the 2025 to 2026 range, the Russian economy will be seriously hurt and possibly 25 to 50 percent of it converted to a military economy. the Russian military will be massive in manpower but a shadow of its pre war self. and looking dillapidated . and shabby, and the western foreign investors, most will not come back to Russia, sanctions will most probably remain, teh areas they captured from Ukraine have destroyed economies, destroyed infrastructure, depopulated. and needs to be pacified. Russia will need to spends many billions to rebuild those areas and pacify it with large numbers of military forces. Also , many PMCs private armies will have been formed during the war, by oligarchs and political leaders , as well as local regional militias, this in the backdrop of political instability, as due to the war even if it is ballyhooed as a victory by Putin will not be seen as a victory but more like a defeat, with continuing strong economics sanctions from the west, continuing cost of maintaining a massive army, many of whom have not been paid. and a economy is depression and Putin's health will have even more badly degraded due to mental depression I dont think Putin will more too long after the war is over. His death will have a massive impact as even though he has a stated successor, said successor will not have the caliber and influence of Putin. and there will be a power struggle, and said power struggle will involve military might of the private armies. also the RUssian army will fall apart, due to low pay or no pay at all and the Private armies are the only ones paying , and the pay is good. Russia will slide to civil war, a few years after the war is over. and as Igor Girkin said, the civil war will result in millions of casualties. as bad or worse than 1917. I think Russia will be a geopolitical headache for a decade. Russia will become like China in the 1920s, no central gov Country ruled by warlords. who war with each other. after all is said and done. Russia will come out minus 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession, with several new countries being formed. in the Russian federation. And as for Ukraine, Ukraine will get back all of its lost territory including Crimea, after the wsar is over and after Russia goes into civil war. and future Russians will rue the day Putin came to power. and destroyed the Russian federation responsible for the death of millions of Russians. and the destruction of Russian prestige. he will be rated as one of hte worst Russian leaders .
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  6793. Ukrainians I believe are doing multiple strong probes into Russian controlled territory, with its main strike force in reserve at the back. the Russians did something similiar but failed badly with Bakhmut arguably their only success in the winter offensive however in that case the Ukrainians stlll hold ten percent of the city with Ukrainian flanking attacks reportedly successful. The Russians built a formidable defence during winter with Russian regular infantry as blocking forces in trenches , fortifiucations along with teh lines with massive numbers of mechanized units held far back as a rapid reaction counterattack force backed up by heavy artillery and air power. For the Ukrs its a very hard job to break thru the lines since they dont have air superiority(neither do the Russians) and the Russians are on the defense behind trenches and fortifucations and back up by superior artillery. A Ukrainian advantage for be NATO sattelite intel. I think the Ukrs for now are trying to shape the battlefield, make the Russians stretch resources and manpower. all the while both sides hit each other infrastructure and logistics, the Russians built up strong SAM and ECM defences in occupied Ukraine which makes Ukr HMARS JDAM and even Storm Shadow strikes less effective. if the USA can get around the Russian ECM, this will be a game changer and yah probably open the way to punching a hole and majorly exploiting thru Russian defences as Russian logistics and command and control get disrupted so much that its not able to counteract Ukrainian probes.
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  6816. and if you look at the majority of the Russian troops attacking Ukr positions in Bakhmut , its Wagner penal convict soldiers and there are rumors that wagner is also recruiting from central African jails for penal soldliers to sent to Ukraine. So I think its both to turn bakhmut into a meatgrinder for the ukrs soldiers using Russian penal troops who are very expendable, Also reduces the criminal population of Russia. and perhaps the Central African republic, The way the Russians are using the penal troops is not exactly wasteful, they use these guys in small groups to probe Ukr lines , in frontal infantry daylight attacks, if they find them, the Russians use artillery and air strikes to heavily pound Ukr positions, then they use antoher Penal frontal infantry attack again to probe the same lines, rinse and repeat. The Wagner regulars are used as minders to keep the convicts from retreating, Wagner regulars are used in night time probes since they are well equipped in night sight gear. However this is different than the penal soldier probes in the day(who dont have any night sight) as they are used to recon Ukr positions rather than attack, then use artillery and air strikes in night time artillery attacks on Ukr positions. So yes the Russians are losing say 5-6 X more troops than the Ukrs. but the Russian convicts are very expendable and not running out any time soon however these guys will probably run out some time in 2023, Russian cant keep on doing this forever, Meanwwhile there is politics behind the Russian lines as the Russian army do not want wagner to succeed in Bakhmut and doing its best to hamper them by denying and delaying supplies to the wagner as the Russian logistics system is still mostly run by the Russian army. thought Wagner is trying to change that. The Chechens are also helping Wagner in Bakhmut and have their own command independent from the Russian army. Chechens and Wagner regulars are used in the night time probes in Ukr lines. As for the Ukrs they are defending with several lines of defenses, in trenches and hardened fortified positions, also under ground networks behind the lines, very well defended. and also while the Ukrs troops have lost a significant number of men , Ukr manpower is not affected much and can still field a lot more into the battle. Also Ukr morale is still high , highly motivated to fight . Also Ukr artillery is mainly targetting Russian logistics behind the lines. Hampering Russian artillery usage. since Russians like to use massive amounts of ammo so that is why the Russians are not exactly able to use their aritllery effectively in bakhmut as they would like due to disrupted logistics. Also the wagner penal troops are very poorly motivated, so that is why you get breakthrus in Ukr lines like Wagner penal troops manage to capture Ukr positions and they easilly get pushed out or destroyed in the resulting Ukr counterattacks. , yep wagner and the chechens will not risk their troops in holding positions. That is why you get positions changing hands all the time. RInse and repeat. and the Wagner and chechens. dont really get much support form Russians regulars.
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  6853. as I said earlier, the Russians cannot seem to maintain a large offensive like they carried out with 100K men and 900 tanks in Kharkov oblast. which started in July 19, 2023. within a week it already bogged down and stopped, mainly due to its logistics cannot hammered by Storm Shadows , HMARs JDAMs. Cluster bombs, as I said before, the Russians offensive is far from their rail head and have to truck in their supplies to their units unfortunately the area have a few good roads, its mainy open field intersped by hills and forests. and the Ukrainians heavilly mined the open fields. the Russians lost a lot of trucks and trains at their rail heads got blasted. the Russians several days ago tried to improve the situatikon by railing it lots of trucks but obviously this failed probably got destroyed in their trains by Ukr missle and JDAM strikes. So the Ukrs tried to contain the offnesive which they knew was going to happen by doing JDAM and missle strikes on their logistics but it was too few and failed. So the when the Russians attacked, the Ukrs were in prepared entrenchments and the Russians were attacking uphill since the Ukrs were in high ground. While the Russians lost a lot they were still able to inflict heavy losses on the Ukrs but the Ukrs retreated and the Russians tore a 8 kilometer hole in the Ukr lines however due to poor logistics the Russians were not able to exploit the hole which the Ukrs quickly plugged. and the Ukrs have been counterattacking pushing the Russians back and here the Russian are on the defensive with low supplies. However the Russians are kept alive with heavy air and artllery support slowing down the Ukrainians. Interesting the motive of the Russian offensive in Kharkov oblast, seeing the Russian high command still does not have a grasp on the limitations of their logistics along tranpostation of their supplies which suck bad and the Ukrs strategy on concentrating on their logisics for missle and JDAM strikes. and the Russians probably either thought the Ukrs have most of their reserves focused on taking the South and little reserves in the area or the Russians are trying to distract the Ukrs from dealing a death blow to their defenses in the South. Now Its interesting if the Russians actually have viable reserves to counteract the Ukr push in the South. if the Ukrs manage to breakthru Russian lines in the south and they dont have much reserves then the Russians are toast and you will see a collapse of the Russian southern defense lines.
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  6903. Well I dont think the war will end in 2024, but my view this will be one of the worst years of the war for Ukraine, I predict the Russians gaining more ground in Ukraine this year, and possibly by end of the year the Russians will be besieging the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. taking those two cities will complete Russia's conquest of the Donbass. if USA aid is delayed the whole year of 2024 this might happen, however I can see Russian casualties sky rocket hard. maybe 600K to 700K Russian total casualties by end of 2024. Also the Russians push back the Ukrainians all across the fronts and the Ukrainian pocket south of Kherson gets eliminated. However the Russians dont really do a good job considering their numbers as despite improved Russian logistical situation Russian doctrine, leadership command and control still sucks bad. The Ukrainians will be on the defensive for the entire 2024 with some counteroffensives here and there. and the Ukrainians will mobilize again in 2024. However despite Russians gains, it wont be critical and the whole of 2024 will be deemed another bloody stalemate year. However I do predict the end of the year of 2024 will be a turning point int he Ukraine war when Biden wins the Presidential elections of 2024 and the Dem party sweeps across the board and gains control of the US house and senate. Then 2025 turns into one of the worst years for the Russians, as the USA passes the largest US aid package to Ukraine ever, possibly worth 100 billion USD aid. in early 2025. 2025 will see Ukrainians counteroffensives esp. in the DOnbass. and the ukrainians take back a lot of what they lost in 2024. by late 2025. Also Russian economy will still seem to be OK in 2024 but will start to deform in 2025. Also Russians energy infrastructure failure will get worse with teh winter of 2024 to 2025 thousands of Russians will die due to this. support for the war in Russia starts to really go down.
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  6911. highly agree, you can see signs the Russians are getting desperate like: 1. Their propoganda getting ridiculous like going from saying Ukrs are nazis to satanists. 2. Calling this war a holy war. 3. Firing missles at civilians to get them to surrender. 4. Russians trolls aplenty in social media doing ridiculous propoganda. 5. ballyhooing the capture of small Ukr terrritory at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties(and proud of it too.). 6. Political infighting and circus in the Russian leadership. 7. The usual, Russian troops getting equipped badly , lots of Russian casualties due to drunkeneess infighitng between Russian soldiers etc. How will the Russians break....I agree that central to ending this war is ending the regime of Putin, Putin is removed from power by his death natural or otherwise or he gets removed and isolated from command and control. Most probably by his inner circle . The current state of the war. I think it will not happen yet but the Russians are definitely on the road to defeat. the longer they stay in this war, in this state of command logistics , the way of conducting the war , not much reformed , the worse will the collapse will be. I think his inner circle or military will turn on him when Putin: 1. Orders the use of nukes. 2. massive unrest and economy near collapse. 3. A few more major defeats which causes major losses of Russian soldiers, equipment and territory. As for mobilization, yes this is definiteliy destrablizing Russian society and poliitcs and also a burden to teh Russian economy but I think the Russian people can still take it since thosie being mobilized are the poor and non white Russian ethnics, however more mobilization from those places will result in unrest which needs more mobilization of Russian troops to put down the unrest. Yep Russia is a mess but it will take more time for the Russians to give up the war.
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  6926. So positing in this scenario , the nuke war starts in 1953, so instead of the death of Stalin, Stalin starts WW3 . So historically in 1955, USSR had 200 nukes , the USA had around 2500 nukes. So In 1953, USSR would have 150 nukes. In an event of WW3 in 1953, USA would have had enough nukes to nuke both the Chinese and the USSR. So let's say the USA uses 1500 nukes on the USSR, 500 nukes on China. As for Soviet bombers, circa 1953, the longest ranged one which can reach the USA was the TU-4, esssentially a reverse engineered B-29, which can reach Los Angeles or Chicago on a one way suicide run from the edge of USSR territory. the USA on the other hand can hit most of the USSR with B-36s and B-47s and B-29s. Yah let's say the USSR gets lucky manages to nuke NYC, DC and LA but nukes hundreds of cities on the Chinese and Soviet side. The USA would win WW3, USSR and China will not collapse but will be so hard hit and they would become insular nations with their communist govs trying to hold on to power. Their economic systems cant handle the strain and both countries would probably collapse in 10-20 years. Europe would get hit hard with Soviet nukes. US would again marshal plan Europe while isolating the USSR and China. As of 2021, USA is the sole superpower of the world. Even more so than it is now. USSR and China have balkanized into seperate states. With the whole world under the sway of the USA since the 60s. with the collapse of the USSR and China. USA and its allies focus on Space colonization. By 2021, we have moon bases , start of mars colonies. World corporations start becoming more and more powerful. and have so much influence on USA and world politics. It can be said that the USA of 2021 is a corporate run state with both parties as their mouth pieces.
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  6950. I think the Japanese would have still tried to fight to retain their empire out of pride and ego, the Japanese would long be fighting American, Soviet, Chinese and Indian funded guerilla rebel movements all over their empire. The Japanese would use overwhelming brutal military force to try to crush them but would be unsuccessful and would be a drain to their resources and worse the Japanese would even lose more resources trying to fund their own factions in South America vs. the Americans., I think the most rebellious parts of their empire would be the the Malay and Chinese regions, and Burma. and yes I think the catalyst for the collapse of the Japanese empire would be the rise of the internet in the late 90sand the tsunami which would a horrible Japanese response would start a general uprising in Indonesia, Malaya, Ceylon, Thailand and spreading to the Philippines, Burma, Indochina. and even to the mainland Chinese puppet states. The Japanese would try to suppress even with the use of nuclear and chemical and bio weapons but this will just illicit massive worldwide condemnation further isolating the Japanese(such as it is) and leading to strong tensions with the USA, India and China, NATO(all nuclear armed). Japan withdraws from major parts of its empire but keeps, Hainan, Formosa, Korea and Manchuria and Hawaii and Pacific islands. the Chinese states are subsumed by the Chinese commies and I dont think they would still keep Maoism, in this timeline Mao is deposed in a coup by his head general Lin Biao(in OTL, his coup failed) in the early 70s but go for authoritarian capitalism which massive American economic investments and the Americans see the Japanese as a military bulwark vs. the much reduced but still existing isolationist Japanese empire who the USA still sees as a grave threat. As for the former Japanese colonies and puppet states in the SEA, the Philippines, Indonesia(also including Brunei and all of Borneo, Malaya(also includes Singapore) join into a huge malay state called Maphilindo with a unique three head of state federated ruling system. its nationalistic authoritarian and not democratic with a very anti Japanese slant. Maphilindo, New Guinea(also including Irian Jaya and Timor) would be turned into Australia(which includes New Zealand and Fiji and Samoa) client states. Indochina would encompass, Vietnam , Laos and Cambodia, Burma , Thailand independent states. Ceylon would become an Indian client state, all of them USA and Chinese supported. So after hte fall of the USSR. the USA now main rival is Japan which has now become a isolationist authoritarian state with North Korea levels of control over the non Japanese populations within eht empire but varying degrees of freedom for the ethnic Japanese.
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  7084. yes in terms of numbers the Russians have more drones than the Ukrainians but the Russians are poorly coordinated in drone warfare, and still have a centralized command system , also Russian really lag behind in drone tech compared to the Ukrainians who have now deployed AI cntrolled drones to the battlefiled in increasing numbers to cancel Russian ECM jamming. Ukrainians simply are inventive and think out of the box and Ukrainain squads carry drones, Ukraine has very much intergrated drones to their mlitary on the squad level meanwhile for the Russians most Russian squads do not carry drones only elite Russian units like Spetsnaz or airborne and a number of Russian PMCs carry drones on a level comparable tot he ukrainians. also the differences, Ukrainians drones tend to be smaller whiel the Russians make bigger attack drones. Both sides use ECM and other means to cancel out drones. But the Russians have better ECM however the Ukrainians are also good many Russian drones dont make it when going into Ukrainian lines . However in terms of AI Ukraine is really more advanced than the Russians, since AI on drones means the Russians cannot jam the AI controlled drone, since there is no signal connecting the drone to a remote Ukrainian drone pilot, the drone thinks for itself to attack Russian targets. and the Ukrainians are using lots of them lately. The Chinese are helping the Russians in drone tech . Drones are very important to teh battlefield mainly as a recon tool, find out where the enemy is and guide missles and artillery on them and also other drones to attack.
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  7099. I still think Ukraine will win the war. Russia will lose this war. the FSB were the ones who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow. So that the Russians can use that as cassus belli to declare a state of war as they are doing and mobilize much more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine is a bloody stalemate and the Russians want to finish this war as soon as possible before 2025 at the best. since I think the Russians have deduced that biden will win in 2024 and the dems will gain control of the house and senate, USA will massively raise the aid to Ukraine. The Russian window to "win" this war will be lost by 2025. and when I say win for the Russians at the very least, the Russians end this war with the Putin regime solidly in control of Russia, the Russians remain in control of at least 30 percent or more of Ukraine esp. all of the Donbass. and Crimea. and the Russians are in a time clock since the longer the Russians are in this war , the Russian economy will degrade under the weight of war costs and sanctions, Putin hold on power will degrade in the light of failure to end the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory and mounting death toll not seen since the Great Patriotic war 1041-1945. in fact made even worse if Russia suffers major defeats in the battlefield and is forced to mobilize more men. The longer this war goes , all these factors I mentioned earlier will get worse and all come together to collapse the Putin regime. very similiar to how the regime of Czar Nicholas II collapsed in 1917. Perhaps like the prelude to the 1917 revolution , you gets massive strikes and protests occuring all over Russia esp. big in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the light of hyperinflation , rising food prices and the war. and the poor state of the Russian army which is suffering major defeats and losses in Ukraine . what will be the light to the gasoline which will cause the revolution? maybe like the 1917 revolution, orders to disperse the protests results in many deaths and causes a general uprising in the Russian army and security forces. that will be the end for Putin. When will this happen? maybe around 2027.
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  7106. my view is that the Ukrs have a window of offensive until mid Oct 2023 that is when the rains come and the whole area turns into a sea of mud. and last year the Kherson offensive of Aug to Nov 2022 had the same problems even worse, the Russians really understimated the Ukrs did not mobilize and put most of their reserves or practically all of it to fighting off the Ukrs in Kherson and that left eastern ukraine bereft of Russian units, in fact, the Russians thought the Kharkov area was a rest and recuperation area noting the lack of Ukrainian activity there. Well the Ukrs saw this gathered their forces and despite warnings from the Russian mil bloggers the Russian stupid leadership disregarded the warnings and when the Ukrs attacked in force the Eastern Ukraine front collapsed. like a house of cards. I think the Russians learned hard from this and their predicament and Putin wants to survive. So now the Russian strategy is to keep whatever they conquered in Ukraine , tire out the Ukrainians and their backers then Putin can spin this as a victory and his regime will survive. So that is why the Russians fell back to their Kursk 1943 strategy of going on the defensive with lots of fortifications and entrenchments backed up by strong artillery, air support and mobile reserves. It will be a long hard slog thru the fortifications and also the Russians are gathering supposedly 100K men with several hundred tanks on Kharkiv border preparing to attack. This is quite possible and a way to prevent the Ukrs from committing their main reserves to exploit breaches in the line. In my opinion the Russians did this to either an d 1. distract the Ukrs. 2. Maybe the Russians sense the Ukrs have low reserves and trying to take advantage of this. trying to inflict a Kharkov 2022 on the Ukrainians. maybe a 2nd battle of Kharkov is in the offing. So now the Ukrs are basicaly trying to wear down the Russians make them expend their reserves and logistics. hitting their logistics command and control to weaken the Russians then when that happens, a breakthru happens and the Ukrs exploit it and then disaster for the RUssians. and that might be a massive blow to the political standing of Putin and might cause rebellion in the RUssian army. and finally a possible end to the war.
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  7164. and as I have been saying since the start of 2024, Trump is bought and paid for by Putin with billions of FSB money being funnelled to the Rep party super pacs and lobbies through Musk and Thiel. Russian oligarchs own a big chunk of MUsk stocks, and its said Russian oligarch money helped pay for 50 percent of his buy out of twitter. I think the relationship between Musk Trump and PUtin is very interesting . I think the really money man here is Putin, and pulls the strings of Musk and Trump. And Musk and Trump are trying to get full power rule in the USA since for Trump so he does not get prosecuted plus he gets a kick out of it. and Musk well for money and power. For Putin to get out of the Ukraine war with at least his regime intact and also with the upper hand in negotiations. Musk Trump and Putin are very connected in this. power play relationship. Trump also is beholden to putin since PUtin also bankrolled his 2016 presidential run. and Trump its said is indebted to Russian banks and the Russians have blackmail on him. Musk on the other hand, Trump is also beholden to since Musk was used as conduit for Russian money to Trumps 2024 campaign. as said earlier, they may think they are on top of the world and they won the game....FOR NOW....in fact I can see their relationship falling apart in the next few years and so will the Trump admin fall apart. After Trump and Elon go to prison and their assets frozen by the US gov the new US gov helmed by the demos will get back at Putin hard, they will probably acccuse Russia of massive interference in the 2024 elections and consider it a act of aggression . Not surprised starting 2029 , the relationship with Russia will really be strained with the new US gov with the US gov putting in sanctions on Russia as bad as the Ukraine war sanctions or worse. and Russia by this time, is trying to recover from the Ukraine war. It will hit Putin at the worst time, also combine that with possible crashing oil prices and matching sanctions from the Europeans. will result in economic disaster for the Russians, The removal of Putin from power will be the new US gov 2029 foreign policy in revenge for the disastrous Trump admin .
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  7185. my view war ends sometime in 2025 to 2026. it ends with a military rebellion which becomes successful in forcing Putin to flgith with his gov. with significant military fighting within Russia, the loss of central authority like taht means rapid collapse of the RUssian economy, Russian republics , local govs. form their own militias to keep order independent from Moscow. take sides int he civil war. Military rebellion is caused by major Russian defeats in the battlefield. , USA and her allies continuing military aid to Ukraine even raising it after the USA 2024 elections elect a USA pres. who is committed to continuing to military aid ukraine. Russia in civil conflict without central authority means collapse of the Russian army command and control in Ukraine, probably a civli war within the Russian army in Ukraine. Ukrainian army takes advantage of this and does major offensives. Ukraine will win when the Russian fed implodes in civil war. 1.5 years into the war, the Russian political regime is showing major cracks as shown by Prigozhins march to moscow, recent purges of Russian military officers who are speaking out against the Russian political and military command. and in the backdrop the Russians having lost 50 percent of their gains in Ukraine since the start of the war on the defensive vs. a resurgent Ukrainian army which is much stronger than they were at the start of the war still with high morale motivation, better training, better combat doctrine having largely adopted NATO combat doctrine, much better battlefield medical and evacuation of casualties(to NATO military hospitals in Europe and in NATO equipped field hospitals)much better equipped with NATO weapons. while the Russians have to deal with poor morale , relatively poor training, artillery ammo shortages, supply shortages, Russian logistics getting regularly hammered by NATO supplied smart missiles. , a worsening political situation with high ranking Russian officers speaking out vs. Putin and the Russian military command. , worsening economic situation, high casualties in the battleifield, very high cost of war. maintaining their army in Ukraine which is now supposedly 95 percent of the Russian army. along with rising aid to Ukraine by NATO and the EU and her allies all of whom have a combined GDP much dwarfing Russia by 40 times.
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  7188. From what I hear , in the front, the Russians are using massive artillery barrages and lots of glided bomb attacks on hte Ukrainian lines. done in order to destroy Ukrainian defenses. soften it up before the main attacks , however many of these bombs and artillery attacks are inaccurate and miss their targets, and the Ukrainians are spread out and not concentrated further minimizing Ukrainian casualties that is why Russian attacks are repelled with heavy Russian casualties. The Ukrainians are still being pushed back and the Russians advancing true but with very heavy casualties. and advancing slowly at that. Ukrainians also counterattack whenever they can. So its not a full Russian advance but more like see saw battles. Also it seems that while the Russians can actually cause a breakthru they cannot exploit it like Avdiivka where the Ukrainian mostly withdrew in order but the Russians had the opportunity to exploit this defeat breaktrhru will follow up units. but nope seems like the Russians dont have much reserves. to exploit holes in Ukrainian lines since they have lost a LOT of men. That is why the Russians are mobilizing another 300K more men. Ukrainian strategy for 2024, hold mobile defense and trade space for time at the same time inflicting as much damage on the Russians. The Russians can take massive losses but its not forever that they can do this. This war is not a existential war, the Ukrainians did not invade Russia. So the Russians dont have their backs to the wall. like in WW2 however the one who has his back to the wall is Putin. The Russian people dont have their existence staked on the war. and eventually the Russian public will break and be sick and tired of this war esp. when the Russian army in Ukraine start experiencing major defeats while the Russians keep on mobilizing hundreds of thousands of unwilling recruits and losing hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in battles with the Ukrainians. Coupled with economic depression, Hyperinflation , rising food prices yep you have the recipe of the Russian people finally overthrowing Putin. However this will take years down the road.
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  7249. There is rumors that Putin has lost his hold on power in Russia. interestingly the Kherson operation was approved by the Russian military ledership, Prigozhin of the wagner and Kadyrov , Putin never came out and made a official approval and has been silent all the time. Perhaps he is either kaput or under arrest. Im not surprised we get a surprise announcement this month about Putin. now will the war end, very iffy. I dont think the Russian military leadership Prigozhin and kadyrov wanted the war in the first place but they are stuck with it but cannot back down, I think some tough negotiations will happen Korean war style peace negotiations as both sides jockey for positions at the peace negotiations the war will go on, with the Ukrs not stopping until at least the very least the borders go back to pre 2022 war. Then again, Ukraine also wants Crimea and parts of the Donbass that was taken during the 2014 to 2015 war. Expect the Russian leadership after Putin to be indecisive about this and the fighting will go on. but now no more Putin and the Russian populace will be more rebellious and even more demoralized. On the up side for the Russians I expect them to improve their tactics and strategies after Putin no more micromanagement disastrous from the Kremlin and local Russian commanders will be given a lot more leeway to conduct their battles. with little interference from Moscow. however the Russian military leadership will still have to deal with masses of poorly trained and poor morale Russian conscripts. who will even have worse morale. along with more unrest and rebellion in Russia with putin gone. the war going to shit and more mobilization. You might see Russia just fall apart to end the war.
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  7276. my prediction war ends in mid to late 2025 with Russia getting 20 percent of Ukraine lifting of all sanctions, unfreezing of its foreign assets, and a DMZ type partition between Russia and Ukraine manned by UN and NATO troops. In return UKraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction aid from the USA EU and their allies. no EU and NATO membership, also Ukraine the right to rearm and buy USA weapons. In the meantime, while the negotiations are happening Ukraine still getting aid from EU and money is being spent to buy USA weapons. So EU bankrolling Ukraine to buy USA weapons. Trump would love this one. I think by the time war ends Russia would have suffered 1 million casualties and tens of thousadsn of destroyed tanks APCs, and IFVs. Russian economy wrecked and dangerously in war mode. parts of its industry wrecked from Ukrainian drone bombing. Its military while the Russian military expanded quality massively dropped a lot of its weapons systems expended, its massive cache of stored pre war weapons 75 percent gone and used. Russian army prestige down the toilet, embarassed Russian military is in no shape to wage war on its neighbours after this one and Putin is probably in no mood really in no mood to try another war is the forseaable future probably engage in internal purges to ensure the stability of his regime and engage in repairing its economy and also reforming his army. Not surprised if Zelensky steps down or loses the next elections. The next gov continues the rebuild of Ukraine and rearming and reforming of the Ukrainian military. to be ready for round 2.
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  7281. While the NK troop deployments in Ukraine will probably boost Russian combat power, it is not helping Russia win this war, economically the NKs are a burden to the Russians since the Russians spend billions in currency resources etc. paying the NKs to send their troops to UKraine who are then housed fed and armed by the Russians. and the NKs do not help the Russian economy in fact its the other way around since NK is a lot poorer than Russia. Also NK troop quality is questionable, from my sources, NKs have sent 10K to 50K troops in Ukraine, there have already been NK troops in Ukraine since late 2022, special forces types and observers in small numbers not only observing but also taking part in direct combat and NK troops have already died in Ukraine since 2023. NOw the NKs are directly getting involved in the Ukraine war in large numbers and Ive heard the Ukrainians are actively targetting them esp. their officers. These guys are disguised as Buryat, Siberian, even Central Asian troops. As for quality, the NK spec op troops and engineers are good at their job however Ive been hearing they are committing their regular NK troops which are much lower quality, I think the NKs are committing thier lower quality troops to act as cannon fodder however the spec ops are suborned to a Russian VDV division operating in Eastern Ukraine near Kharkiv. Except for the Spec ops. the regular NK troops are directly supplied armed and fed by the Russians and the regular NK troops will be treat as step above a storm Z but still in the meat cannon fodder category as Russian regular ethnic troops.
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  7303. if China invades Taiwan it will be the biggest mistake China has ever made. in its recent history. Like China will face initially Taiwan and the USA. and probably UK and Australian navies will intervene on the Taiwanese side. China will be embargoed even worse than Russia currently, its ports blockaded , and its shipping interdicted by USA and allied navies. If China attacks American bases in Japan and South Korea. You will see the Japanese air force and navy defending itself but also the Japanese navy might intervene in Taiwan. the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu will most likely be quicly overrun but Taiwan itself, well the CHinese might be able to land some troops on the island but it will be slaughter for them, and the Chinese nav and air force will most likely be mauled by the Allied navies in a brutal naval air war. A very bad Chinese military defeat, blockade of its ports, sanctions and embargoes prove to be too much as the CHinese economy is not self sufficient and is very reliant on exports of its manufactured goods and energy imports. take those away well the Chinese economy collapses, possible civil war in China. Xi Xinping will most likely be purged. and a new Chinese commie leadership will take over and order an immideite end to the war. However the damage is done, no one wants to invest in China, all investors pull out never to return. the CCP has lost face with its defeat in Taiwan. in the following years CHina goes through the worst economic depression since the Mao era. You see massive unrest which is responded by military force from the PLA under order of teh CCP, massacres of civilians in major urban centers of China results in widespread unrest and uprisings vs. the CCP, which causes a Chinese civil war, which lasts a decade or two. resulting in China going back to the warlord era of hte 1920s and 30s. China gets balkanized into a bunch of warlord states, independent republics etc. all claiming to be the rightful rulers of CHina. If you thought a possible civil war in Russia was bad post Ukraine war defeat, this is nothing compared to what China will be facing if it invades Taiwan and is defeated.
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  7325. In retrospect the Japanese leadership at the end of this WW2 would have viewed their strategies as a success. and would probably the only power that can threaten its dominance of the Pacific is the USA and the USSR. I think on paper Japan would be seen as a Asian great power with a super charged military and economy however in reality, Japan would still have a depressed war time economy, sinking a lot of money and resources in pacifying its conquered territories as well as building up its military to face the USA and USSR. In short Japanese economy woulid be shaky and unstable at best. Great Britain is not seen as a threat but a vanquished foe. Germany would still be seen as a ally but a distant one. Japan would not have an oil problem controlling the Malaya, Dutch east Indies and Burmese oil fields but it would have an industrial one, cranking out more weaopns and building factories cost a lot of money as well as extracting more resources to build more weapons which is massively impacting the Japanese economy which has never switched to a civlian economy but continue on a war economy, Also its economy sucks bad sicne there would be no trade with the USA which is its biggest trading partner, and germany and the axis cannot pick up the slack even close with the loss of the USA. the Japanese gov would still be ruled by militarists and expansionists preparing for war with teh USA. Also im not surprised there are border clashes between Japan and the USSR and tensions in the pacific with teh USA between 1945 and 1950. I think the Japanese would still get beaten badly in these border clashes with the USSR. which results in the Japanese focusing on the USA as the easier nut to crack.
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  7351. and what I have heard there are already cracks in the Trump Putin Musk relationship. Trump and Musk do not like each other despite their outward support in public. That stunt with Musk's son shows who is the real boss, and its Musk. and its obvious Trump does not like it. and I think there are back room conflicts between Musk and Trump as Trump constantly chafes at Musk. and of course both of them are under the their real boss in the background Putin. I think Musk and Trump know their game is an all or nothing, the main goal of the Trump presidency for Putin is to cut off all aid to Ukraine from not only the USA but also their allies, Trump will pressure the US allies to cut off their aid via economic threats and tariffs on the EU Canada and other strong supporters of Ukraine. Putin wants to get out of the Ukraine war with his regime intact, with the most minimum the Russians controlling all of the Donbass and the Ukrainian army limited with manpower and equipment caps and Zelensky out of power and Ukraine proclaiming neutrality. So Putin can spin the war as a victory and his regime will survive. and he can later control Ukraine like he did Georgia through the ballot box . Trump and Musk end is to gain authoritarian control of the USA, with Trump getting back at his political enemies and Musk remaking the USA in whatever he wants to remake it as. and also both of them stand to make a LOT of money in the process. Trump looks like he does not like what he is doing under order from Musk and Putin, and Musk well he is on drugs all the time which means he does not like what he is doing either. since its also very risky to do their thing since if it all backfires both of them can end up in prison or worse. Endangering the USA establishment is very dangerous for Musk and Trump, they can end up either in prison or assassinated. if they succeed they get away with it.
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  7370. I think war might not end in 2025 since the Russians think they are winning and the Ukrainians think they are still strong enough to hold out vs. the Russians. and inflict massive losses on them even though yes the Ukrainians are slowly being ground down. I think Trump will probably not be able to forge a armistice in 2025 so its doubtful that he will aid Ukraine however I do think in this case the Europeans in particular Ukraines allies in the EU , and UK, Canada, Australia will probably step in and dramatically step in and ramp up their support for Ukraine with the possiblity of sending military forces into Ukraine but not fighting the Russians directly, though I do think the Europeans might send in some of their airplanes with volunteer pilots to fight for Ukraine. I think a possible Euro expeditionary force consiting of French, UK, Polish, Italian , Spanish, troops as a special reserve force for UKraine, to prevent a Ukrainian battlefield collapse. which can be a special bargaining chip for Ukraine. also Trump allows Ukraine to purchase weapons and supplies from the USA directly using EU funds. Freezing the battlefield. and continuing the attritional war. What is prompting the Ukrainains to resist is the really odious demands from the Russians for peace which is practically a full surrender of Ukraine. I think Ukraine will fight on and yes the longer the war goes the worse for both sides. hitting the Ukrainians manpower issue making it worse, and hitting the Russians economically , along with the prospect that Russia may have to do a general mobilization will hit his political standing even more. So in this scenario, the Russians may actually say "win" this war by doing a Russian favorable armistice with capturing the Donbass which is Russia's minimum war objective and get to keep say 25 percent of Ukraine. and keep the Putin regime intact and still in power but I think the cost may be so massive that Russia will experience some sort of social economic and political destabilization after the war is over, Yes Russia can spin this one that they won the war, but it will feel that they did not win the war but more like lost the war. I can see the Russians by the time the war ends in this scenario the Russians get 1.5 to 2 million casualties, its military stocks severely depleted. its army despite winning has been humiliated. its economy dangerously in war mode, the Russian elites and population have mostly lost faith in Putin's ability to rule. and while sanctions have been lifted the Europeans are still hostile to the Russians and its not business as usual. Russia starts experiencing high crime rates and even rebellions due to poor economy which starts to hit the Russians hard post war, and hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans returning to Russia. with high unemployment, more repressive Russian gov as putin starts to respond to instability with crackdowns. cost of rebuilding its conquered territories , cost of rebuilding its damaged industries. as well as rebuillding its economy and military. In short Moscow is not in any mood or stomach to do another war and focuses on rebuild. Ukraine on the other hand may have lost the war but it still has control of 75 percent of the country., and its being rebuilt with hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the Europeans and their allies. Also Ukraine gets security guarantees from UK France and other Euro nations. also the Ukrainians rapidly rebuild. with the view of round 2 with Russia in the future. The Ukrainians may have lost the war but will have performed well above expectations. and have managed to get out of this war with a stable gov. the Russians may have won the war but have gotten a growing SOcial economic and political instability post war. and while Putin may want to finish the job and still feels threatened with a possibly future resurgent Ukraine , he does not have the stomach to do so. and when Putin there might be destabilization in Russia . which may trigger a civli war.
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  7455. USA EU and their allies are reportedly financing the Ukrainian equivalent to an entire year Russia spent on its military. Yep a a USA recession will trigger a global recession which will really put a hurt on the Russian economy. and the Russian economy currently is already hurting. You'll see it with the Ruble crashing. and staying crashed. Yep I think the war will end in 2023. due to a global recession perhaps starting in early to mid 2023. In this scenario I can see oil prices crashing war ends probably late 2023. as the Russian economy is collapsed on the brink of collapse with unrest in Russian cities, Russia essentailly becomes Venezuela 2.0. Putin dies of "natural causes" new Russian gov. blames putin and purges Russian gov. of Pro Putin elements. New Russan gov. calls for a ceasefire and withdrawal but states it does not have the money to withdraw from Ukraine and asks for western help, Russsian gov. and military abandons its troops in Ukraine just as it did in the first chechen war. Russian troops drife or walk home leaving most of their weapons equipment and even vehicles behind . many Russian soldiers claim political refugee to immigrate to the west. Russian soldiers who are captured by teh Ukrainians for war crimes are put to work in penal work units to reconstruc Ukraine. The rest sent back. The Ukrainians get back everything they lost except for Crimea but its later given back to Ukraine by the new Russian gov in exchange of lifting all sanctions and wester economic aid. and normalizing relations with Ukraine and the west. Ukraine goes thru an economic boom . Russia goes into massive unrest semi civil war political chaos and economic depression. its the 90s back with a vengeance on steroids. high crime rates, rumors of coups and outright attempted coups. Russia military mainly demobilized due to lack of financing. Russian republics esp. in east of Urals and Caucasus becoming independent states. Uprisings unreat , millions of Russians leaving hte country. possbly 25 percent of Russian pre war territory balkanizes and becomes independent states. Russia becoms a proxy battleground between USA and China. for its resources . Russian politics chaos is characterized with Pro Western Democrats. vs. Anti west nationalists vs. seperatists. and could be characterized as a near civil war. Russia undergoes 10 years or so of strife then settles down.
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  7464. well Ive been saying since 2022, the USA elections of 2024 will determine the final outcome of this war, in my opinion, if Kamala wins esp if the dems sweep the house and senate, well, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war in Ukraine, Russia's economy cannot take 4 more years of war, esp. from what I hear Kamala and her advisory team which will be totally new as she will fire most if not all of Bidens national advisory team and kamala and her team are even more pro Ukraine hawks than Biden and his team. Kamala wants to finish the war in her first term and will probably lift all restrictions on Ukrainian use of USA weapons on Russian soil, massive uptick in US aid to Ukraine, and the western artillery ammo production will be reaching Russian parity by 2025. Not surprised if South Korea becomes a major arms supplier to Ukraine going through USA and Poland to ship weapons and ammo to Ukraine esp. artillery ammo and jets(the South Korean FA-50 which is a very good multi role South Korean combat aircraft and cheapo too). Maybe even Swedish Gripens can be supplied to the Ukrainians in 2025 and the French Mirage 2000 is coming too in early 2025. 2025 will be annus Horribilis for the Russians, and 2025 will also be a pivotal year for the war in Ukraine which I think will see possible pivotal battles like the upcoming Pokrovsk battle which might tip the war to Ukraine's favour . I think in this scenario war ends a Putin's removal from power by Russian elites as the Russians cut their losses to preserve as much of their economy and military , as the Russian economy starts coming apart by 2026 and the new regime now does serious negotiations to end the war on Ukraine's terms. Possibly a Russian defeat at Pokrovsk or some major battle is the cassus belli to have Putin removed. The resulting negotiations will probably result in the Russians withdrawing back to Russia including Crimea, in return the west lifts all sanctions on Russia, unfreezes all Russian assets in the west normalizes relations with the west, and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 90s borders. Also to sweeten the deal and to keep the Russian economy stable, some economic aid to Russia from the USA. Ukraine will win the war with a much weakened Russia economically and militarilly that is turning inward to stabilize its economy and politics. and stabilize law and order. Russia wont be a threat to its neighbours for a few to several decades.
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  7478. well i think the ukrs are starting to get more hmars and atacms so they are hitting russian logistics in eastern Ukraine donbass. yep the russians had time to build up their logistics due to the rep party blocking the aid to uukraine which caused a shortage of hmars and atacms now they are getting new supplies. so the russians are desperate to take as much territory as they can weaken the ukrs before these missles kaput their logistics and they cant launch major offensive like what they are doing now. However the russians are doing this like your typical brute force no finesse dont care about losses technique just sent large numbers of men and vehicles drive into ukrs weak points and go straight until they are not able to due to outrunning their logsitical lines. well in this regard they are successful since the ukrs dont have the manpower to back up their lines and they have a shortage of arty and missle ammo and the russian logistics is working well. so they are able to do this. The ukrs are falling back to defensive lines in order. to prevent russian breakthroughs. and also inflicting lots of losses on the attacking russians. also notice the russians launch powerful multiple attacks they are able to punch holes in ukr lines but not able to collapse it since the ukrs are trading space for time and retreating to new defensive lines in order. so also a combination that the russian logistics is not as efficient to supply their attacking units and follow ups for a sufficient exploitation of holes punched in ukr lines. so when the atacms and hmars ammo come into force , yep and when they hit russian logistcs hard, you will see whole russian attacks suddenly start collapsing with massive russian casualties and vehicle losses. as what happened as usual months ago. and yes the russians on a tactical level may have the upper hand but they are not advancing as much to actually take significant territory to affect the war on a strategic scale. and also suffering massive casualties in the process. and this even with the ukrs suffering from a manpower and ammo shortage. Russian army is really pathetic.
    1
  7479. My view Russia eventually uses nukes in ukriaine sometime in mid to late 2023. NATO military retal vs. the Russians and NATO military intervention in Ukraine, there is a brief tit for tat conventional attacks between NATO and Russia but the war stops. and a armistice happens, with the Russians holding on to 20-25 percent of Ukraine , UN troops deployed to seperate Ukrs and Russian troops. and NATO behind in Ukraine to ensure the armistice holds. and Russia is threatened, if Ukraine is invaded again, there will be war between NATO and Russia. Also total sanctons vs. Russia, is cut off from trade with the west and other nations are pressured to join the sanctions. Russian economy starts to collapse Depiste end of war, strong tensions still remain between NATO/Ukr vs. Russia since Putin is dmenading end to all sanctions and USA and her allies defying Russia and threatening war if Russia attacks again. and saying sanctions will all be lifted if Russia withdraws back to pre war borders. This war would probably be classed as a Russian pyrrhic victory. with Russia keeping 25 percent of Ukraine but losing a major chunk of its army and prestige and its economy collapsing. Russia would be in martial law with a collapsed war economy. also all Russian assets esp. of oligarchs are sequestered all over the world. While the Kremlin is ballyhooing this as a victory and does parades in the Red Square, the mood is bad, in Russia , as millions of Russians run away, Putin mobilizes millions more. and Russians feel they did not win the war in Ukraine. a few years later, in the midst of general unrest in Russia, Putin is deposed. the new Russian gov. negotiates with teh west. to take out all the sanctions in return Russia will withdraw back to pre war borders. and a formal peace with Ukraine. and Russian assurances of non interference if Ukraine decides to join EU and NATO. China makes a lot of invstments into Russia , buying up major stakes in Russian reousrece corporations since the Moscow gov is depserate for cash.
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  7665. yep its losing the war lets see the reasons: 1. Russia's performance in 2024 is a D, less than satifactory, Russians throughout 2024 captured land area in UKraine 1 percent the country , the size of Luxembourg or Rhode Island New York while suffering 400K casualties. The front has not changed much. and the Russians suffered massive casualties roughly around 3 times more on avearage than the Ukrainians. and the Ukrainians are still fighting hard and have not collapsed. the Russians have not inflicted a strategic operational defeat on the Ukrainains. 2. Ukraine's Kursk offensive captured an area the size of Los angeles in two weeks. in 5 months the Russians recaptured roughly half that territory or an area the size of Denver CO. while suffering 40K casualties. The Ukrainians are still fighting hard and have done counteroffensives, also the Russians had to beg the NOrth Koreans for help to try to evict the Ukrainians from Kursk. a month now after North Korean troop deployments and they reportedly suffered 4K casualties. 3. Ukrainians are drone and missle bombing Russian oil refiniries, ammo depots and factories in Russia itself and the so called vaunted Russian air defense systems seemlingly cannot shoot down Ukrainian drones, 4. Russian economy is starting to break, rising food prices, high inflation rates, 5. Ukrainians significnatly helped Syrian rebels oust Assad and crucial Russian ally. 6. Reportedly 60 percent of Russian artillery ammo and 30 percent of Russian missles are north korean made. and of all this, Russian elites are reportedly mad at Putin with many Russian military leaders wanting to escalate the war even further with a general mobilizaiton of the populace . If Putin does a general mobilization and war is still a bloody stalemate, that will be the beginning of the end for Putin, just like the Czar Nicholas II of Russia back in 1917 lost his crown due to a failed unpopular war.
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  7673. well Ive already heard, Putin poured billions of USD into the Trump campaign and to getting maga elected in the house and senate through ELon and his buddies companies to Rep super pacs. and lobby groups. So now that Trump has been elected yes Trump is grateful to Putin for that , but next up is business. I think Trump will play off both the Ukrainians and Russians. to get maximum benefit from both , personal benefit that is. How much billions of USD more can I fleece from both the Russians and Ukrainians to act as middle man to act the war while not getting the Russians to "win" over the Americans. Trump knows that he has the Russians and Ukrainians both over the barrell, the Russians are bloody stalemated in this war and desperate for the war to end but with a "win" that Putin can sell to his elites so that his regime survives. The Ukrainians are wholly relaint on western aid with the USA having a big share of that aid) to survive both economically and militarilly. So for Trump he would like the Ukrainians to mainly get out of this war intact and with its strategic cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa and Lvov intact. and very much limiting Russian gains in Ukraine. So that his companies can benefit from the reconstruction money in the billions that are coming to Ukraine. after a peace is signed. also American companies can very much benefit from the rearming and reform of the Ukrainian military . Also as for the Russians Trump very much wants to limit Russian mllitary power and Trump wants Russia not to meddle in his fight with China. Trump wants normal relations with Russia. and not to have Russia go into civil war.
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  7685. When Biden wins and the Dems sweep the house and senate, its the beginning of the end for Russia. I think this war will either end two ways: Putin and his inner circle are removed by the Russian military leadership and a military Junta takes control of Russia and they withdraw from Ukraine. but no Crimea which is up for negotiation. Everything is blamed on Putin and his buddies. but the Russian gov still remains the same. A more moderate civilian leadership takes over but its very much controlled by the Russian military and oligarchs. I think this one happens in 2025 after Joe Biden wns the elections , and the elites surmise better to cut off loses before the war drags Russia down to the point of no return. 2nd way. war goes on , Putin continues to double down, Biden wins the USA elections and continues giving more aid to Ukraine. Russian economy starts crashing by late 2025, with hyperinflation and rising food prices and mass failure of Russian infrastructure leading to thousands freezing to death in winter due to power failure over large parts of Russia. Russian oil exports are cut down significantly due to incrased Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil industry. Ukrainians win major victories remniscnet of late 2022 in 2026. Pushing the Russians back. All these result in widescale civilian protests in Russia to end the war, coupled with large scale disatisfaction in the Russian army and grumblings of mutiny. All these are met with increased repression by the Russian state. Martial law declared. Parts of Russia see open rebellion vs. mobilization. Start of civil war occurs in 2027, probably sparked by killing of large numbers of protesters in Moscow. , which triggers open rebellion in Russia , triggers mutinies in the Russian military and police. As the Russian civil war starts and Putin loses control of hte military, Ukraine launches major offensives which collapses large parts of the Russian army in Ukraine. and the Ukrainians recaptures the territories they have lost as the Russian army in ukraine loses command and control and with a collapse simliar to the collapse of the Iraqi army in Kuwait in 91 . Ukraine eventually recaptures even Crimea as Russia falls into civil war and anarchy.
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  7720. I predict Putin will die sometime 1st or 2nd quarter of 2023, and war will end by mid 2023. there will be a ceasefire negotiation and an armistice, Russia will withdraw back to pre 2022 war borders. Russia will still control the Crimea. most sanctions will be lifted on Russia, west will not pursue Russian war criminals however you will see Russian war criminals dying in accidents after the war in large numbers. Western invetments most of them will not come back to Russia, and Russian will have a depressed economy and political unrest in the 2020s and 2030s. Ukraine Georgia(after the Russian puppet PM is deposed) and Belarus will join the EU and NATO in the future. China will invest massively into Russia tryint to turn Russia into a economic puppet. this will be opposed by the USA and EU who will probably give economic aid to Russia and probably restart buying oil and gas from them again. The Russian military will probably be fighting regional wars to prevents regions from seceding esp. in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Far East. The west and China do not want Russia to break up since the unrest will spread to their own areas, however they want a weak Russian gov that they can exploit, no more Putin in the future for Moscow and they foster a corrupt Russian gov. that they can control, influence and exploit. who will control the Russian military and make it stay within its own borders. I can see millions of Russian refugeeing out of Russia to escape the unrest and economic hardships.
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  7772. I think Moscow is trying to win this one by waiting until Winter then turning off the gas and oil to the Europeans and pressuring the Europeans esp. the Germans to stop supporting the Ukrainians and force them to accepting Russian peace terms which gets them to retain control of their winnings. If that fails, well....in the face of economic collapse Putin may well have to exile to Syria or be kaput of "natural causes". and then withdraw Russian armies in Ukraine back to pre war borders. in return for sanctions being taken off. However the Europeans will remember all this, and probably severely limit buying oil and gas from the Russians. Im not surprised that in return for the lifting of all sanctions that the Russians pay reparations to the Ukrainians in the form of oil and gas and other resources. besides cash. at a discounted rate. However the damage to teh Russian economy is severe, many foreign investors will not be going back to Russia even if Putin is gone and a moderate gov. takes over. The Europeans will probably also demand they be given free oil and gas or a big discounted rate for oil and gas in offset the aid they gave to the Ukrainians. or the Europeans will severely cut off energy buys from the Russians at a time when the Russians need financial help to help recover . or go into economic collapse. China however will invest in Russia heavilly however with a economically prostrate Russia suffering from political economic and social chaos, China will buy out Russian energy companies at bottom prices. Put in Chinese corporations to exploit Russian natural resources and start supporting secessionist movements in Sibieria and the Far East. Turkey will do the same in the Caucasus. China and Turkey are net energy importers. and Russia is a great prize to exploit. and the USA and EU want to prevent that and maintain a stable Russia but at the same time finally permanently neutrer Russia so Russia does not become a geopolitical threat in the future and becomes a Western Ally. I think the USA and EU will allow the Turks and Chinese to dismember Russia.
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  7886. I think the real reason why Putin invaded was that his friend Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk was put under house arrest shortly before the war started. This really angered Putin and I think this one was the trigger that pushed Putin to start the war, and Putin was in isolation and taking lots of steroids to deal with covid 19 , so he went loopy. Also his generals kept telling him that Ukraine military was shit, fed him wrong info. however they knew the Ukrainian army was equipped with lots of Javelin and NLAW top attack ATGMs so they put cope cages on their tanks even before the war. that did not help much. Putin's generals fed him false info since they knew if they told the truth they would be sacked. Putin in his whack brain thought he knew everything and knew stuff better than his generals. and the generals played along. Even the FSB played along. So Putin who is actually risk adverse and a careful planner and opportunist thought he could win fast and easy versus Ukraine and that the Ukrainian people would welcome him and he could conquer the whole country in like 3 days or at worse 3 months with minimal casualties. Well he failed and he failed really badly. now nearly 3 years later and 700K casualties, tens of thousands of destroyed Russian tanks , IFVs, APCs, , Russian miltiary embarassed and looked at lot weaker than they were portraying pre war. struggling vs. Ukraine which Russia has 10X the economy and military firepower and 5X the population and only controls around 20 percent of the country and struggling to win taking massive casualtiies est. to be 1K casualties a day. and the Ukrainians have captured a large territory in Kursk Russia and 3 months later the Russians are still struggling to kick them out and have called the North Koreans to help send soldiers, artillery ammo and missles. and the Russian navy lost at least two dozen ships including the Black sea flagship moskva vs. Ukraine who doe snot have a navy , and the Russians are operating from the Caspian sea due to the Ukrainians managing to evict the Russians from the Black sea using drones, and the Ukrainains are also bombing Russian cities , oil refiniries and ammo depots with drones. Its that bad for Russia. This war has been a disaster for Russia. and even if the Russians manage to get a peace deal out of this where they walk away with the Putin regime intact, this war has really shaken the confidence of the Russian elites in Putin and really damaged the Russian economy and military. This will have severe repercussions post war as both Russia and Ukraine try to recover and rebuild getting ready for round 2.
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  7992. True, Im not surprised if Putin died in October 2023, and Russia was since ruled by Patrushev and Shoigu and now these two bozos have been engaging in a brutal power struggle which sees oligarchs FSB and military men getting arrested or falling from windows or just yesterday a FSB col. Maksim Yeremin aka. Putin's hooligan died choking on a lump of meat. Last month Russian general Magomed Khandayev a close Shoigu associate died myteriously. So Im not surprised if the FSB(Patrushev) and the Russian Army/GRU(Shoigu) have been engaging in a brutal power struggle behind the scenes, possibly since late 2022. Ive heard rumors that Putin himself has not been ruling the country since mid to late 2022 since he was very sick at the time reports said. which lead to his death in Oct 2023, again rumors say natural causes but others speculate Putin may have been poisoned. I think a dead Putin is quite useful as the ones behind the scenes have more control of the state of affairs so as not to escalate to the use of nukes. I think Putin is a very useful rallying point and a scapegoat for the war, if the elites feel that the war is lost and they need to cut their losses. Swan lake will probably start playing on Russian TV before the announcement that Putin has kicked the bucket. . and negotiations can begin. to end the war. and then the Russian gov will start releasing certain damning facts on putin saying that he was a bully etc. etc. etc. and that the Russian leaders were victims themselves. yada yada yada.
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  7994. I have been saying it for a long time, since the war started, the Ukrainians are going to win this war and badly defeat the Russians(and the Russians are badly defeating themselves too with their incompetence). I see Putin removed by the Russians claiming he died of "natural causes" probably poisoned, there is a power struggle and a group of Russian military civilian officials and oligarchs take over . War ends chaotically for the Russians. Russians withdrawal is chaotic like the first chechen war, the Russian gov. is in chaos nad bankrupt. however there is a cessation of hostilities and a ceasefire, after a few weeks new Russian gov takes over and annouces a complete withdrawal from Ukraine except Crimea. However the withdrawal is chaotic and Russians start looting and ransacking whatever areas they still occupy and Ukrainians unit have to come in and fight them. Russians abandon many of their vehicles and go back to Russia on foot or in stolen vehicles. Russian gov begs NATO for assistance in withdrawing the RUssians, the RUssian troops in Ukraine are abandoned these Russians troops m any go on a rape and looting rampage in the Russian border areas. fighting with local Russian security units. These russian troops are never paid. for their time in Ukraine, they go back to Russia abused discriminated blamed for losing the war. going back to unemployment shame no paid at all, but they know how to kill people they have military experience know how to use military weapons, many of them are ex convicts from Russian jails. they go back and use their newly acquired skills to cause chaos in Russia and Russia is in political and eocnomic chaos with a collapsed economy and a unstable moscow gov. Since the Russian gov is bankrupt, the Russian army is mainly demobilized. and whatever monies they have is put on keepng the economy stable. and security services paid. With a demobilized Russian army there is a breakdown of law and order all over Russia. also The EU USA and their allies are not lifting all the sanctions until Russia gives back ALL plus the Crimea of Ukrainian territory back. A deal is maide to lift all the sanctions plus economic aid if Russia gives back the Crimea plus hands over many Russian military leaders for trial in the Hague for war crimes.plus democratic electins. In the meantme China and Turkey take advantage of the chaotic poltically environment and support secessionist Russian republics to go independent esp. in the Caucasus , Central Asia, Far east and Siberia. within 5 to 10 years, Russia loses 50 percent of its territory to secession. and these republics become independent puppet states of the Turks and Chinese. the break up is relatively peaceful just like the breakup of the USSR. Russia however within 10-20 years. while smaller leaner is easier to govern is still a huge country(Canada would now be the largest country in the world followed by the USA. ) but Russia is still #3. and Russia will boom again with a democratic western leaning gov. in 20 years. having removed its shackles to the USSR. and become a country with western european values and governance. and possibly in the 2050s become a EU member. Effects: Armenia will probably lose half of its territory to teh Azeris and Turks in a bloody war after the fall of the Putin gov. Armenia becomes a garrison state. in the Caucasus. Later becomes part of the EU. NATO is dissolved later as the RUssian threat has been taken out and replaced by EU military alliance. Turkey is in chaos after Erdogan dies. in the next 5 to ten years. relations between EU US and Turkey are very much strained after the very bloody third Armenia Azeri war.
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  8039. as I said so many times before, the USA 2024 elections White house, senate and house will be pivotal to who wins in the Ukraine war. A Kamala win which I think is most likely to happen even better with a dem control of the senate and house will cause a massive worldwide political tsunami esp. in Russia, this will really demoralize the Russian elites who probably put all their chips in with Donald Trump. Kamala harris will probably be different than Joe Biden, and finish the war with a Ukrainian win with massive uptick in USA aid to Ukraine, while Putin himself will continue on, the Russian elites will be sharpening their knives for him. also with his back to the wall Putin can order nukes used however from a FSB memo back in 2022, there are orders not to listen to Putin the old man, if he ordered nukes used. with a Kamala harris win Putin might be deposed in 2025 or in 2026. and the new regime will probaby negotiate for peace with Ukraine with the Ukrainian upper hand. not surpirsed if the Russians withdraw from all of Ukraine including Crimea in return for the lifting of all sanctions plus normalized relations with the west and formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 91 borders and a few years after Ukraine gets inducted into the EU and NATO. Also all Russian assets are unfrozen in the west, plus the west probably gives money to Russia to forestall economic collapse. This will have massive effect on the countries of Belarus, and Georgia where there will be changes to their govs , becoming very pro EU and pro USA. Not surprised if both countries including Armenia apply for EU and NATO membership. The far right parties in the west will be most affected since their paymaster Russia stopped funding to them. It will massively affect them. as they will experience downturns even collapses. Far right in the west will experience chaos. Meanwhile China will have a change in gov. Xi Xinping wont get a 4th term in fact, in the next elections the Shanghai group will come back to power and try to get relations with the west back on track meanwhile exploiting the chaos in Russia post war. Russia goes into turmoil worse than the 90s but not yet on civil war level, I think Russia will lose territory in the Caucasus with Chechnya and Dagestan probably seceding and becoming Turkish puppet states. I think the Russian fed stays together but with a weaker Moscow gov and Russian military control. The Russian military will be a shadow of its former self, while many of its recruits join the PMCs the private armies of the Russian oligarchs who rule Russia from behind controlling the Russian federal gov. Russian provinces and republics will probably have a lot more autonomy and have their own militias. The Russians provinces and republics I think will stay with teh Russsian fed. pay lip service ot Moscow but in reality practically independent formulating their own foreign policies, the Russian federation becomes a Russian confederation with a weak Russian moscow gov and Russian army meanwhile the country's real masters are the Oligarchs , their PMCs and regional governors and their militias. The Russian oligarchs will probably cooperate with one another (while doing politicla maneuvering behind the scenes) but there might be conflict with provincial and republic militias. Meanwhile USA, China and Turkey meddle with all this trying to influence Russian oligarchs, local governments for their own ends mainly to do with natural resources deals and foreign policy issues. Russia becomes a great game of influence between USA China and Turkey. Heck not surprised if the Ukrainians play strongly here. There is real danger that the Russian federation undergoes a break up several years after the war is over. simliar to what happened to the USSR esp. in the Caucasus and east of the Urals. Probably done peacefully as the Russians dont really have a strong army as it wont recover from the Ukraine war for a very long time.
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  8072. Putin's days are not only numbered but so is Russia's , Putin's actions will have great effects on the Russian federation, I forsee after the war is over , post Putin Russia has lost the war, Political economic and social chaos in Russia. Something similiar to 1917 all over again. which will last for a few years. I dont think it will be a civil war, but it will be the breakdown of law and order, in Russia, collapse of the Russian economy, many PMCs and militias popping up all over the place and being the law and order of the area, power plants break down, many areas of Russia without power and internet, criminals , anyone with the gun and can organize become the new rule of law. Millions of Russian refugees will flee to their neighbours many will die when winter sets in and they get stuck at the borders in the dead of winter out int he open. with inadequate winter clothing and heating. Millions of Russians will die from this time of chaos which will last a few years, not only due to murder but also to the breakdwon of transport infrastructure, and the Russian ruble becoming worthless, Russian economy effecitvely becomes a barter economy where USD EUro UK pounds, Chinse Yuan and crypto are accepted and Russian ruble is toilet paper which makes food expensive and valuable , also millions of pensioners will lose their pensions and have to cope with hunger and bad winters. Im not surprised if UN Central Asians, Chinese and NATO troops are forced to deploy to Russia to maintain peace and order . and to stop the massive flow of refugees to their countries.
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  8086.  @zackwhite8274  THe Ukrainians ultimate goal is to take back all their lost territory including Crimea, back to the 90s border. The Current strategy is to hold out as long as possible and see how the political conditions int he USA turns out. and Yes I think they can hold. Like The Ukrainians are far from collapsing. Heck the Ukrainians still hold the major cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. and the Russians yes they are advancing but not by much, they are still halfway to taking all of the Donbass and yes the Russians force the Ukrainains back but the Ukrainians are retreating in order and inflicting thousands of casualties on the Russians but hundreds of kaput vehicles. And even if the Russians take all the Donbass, the Ukrainians will still keep on fighting. So right now I think everything is hinged on how the USA 2024 elections turn out. and how both sides hold out economically and politically. The Ukrainians are very dependent on foreign aid and whoever wins in the USA presidential elections is very important to them. The Russians national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025 and the Russian economic minister has stated that the Russian economy cannot support the war indefinitely and its costing the Russians at least 400 million USD per day just maintaining their forces in Ukraine. and 95 percent of the current standing Russian army is in Ukraine. Also the Russians are estimated to run out of their cold war stocks of tanks and APCs by late 2025. and even Shoigu stated that the Russians can fight this war until 2025 and anything beyond that Russian will have a hard time running the war. So the Ukrainians are very dependent on political outcomes of their backers. and the Russians are on a time limit to finish this war ASAP before economic problems make it hard to run the war and their cold war stocks run out.
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  8193. this is a temporary problem, you have to give up land and inflict as much damage to the enemy when they take said land, then later take it back when they are properly weakened, you do not put your best forces in the cauldron to blled the russians , you put your most expendable ones. which the Ukrs high command did. I think the Ukrs command is not perfect and yes they made mistkaes but then again this is war live and learn. this is not yet an end to the war and while a critical battle notice the Russians are advancing slow but getting a LOT of losses. the goal is to keep up , bleed the Russians bad. Yes the Russians can replace their losses, yes the Ukrs will lose a lot of men but at the end of the day in a strategic sense, this is making the Russians lose more hurts their economy more. The goal here is to collapse the Russian economy, yes it seems the Russian economy is taking it quite well, but this is for now, the longer the Russians are in the war and commiting their forces , the more they are expending a lot of money to fund the war, the more it hurts their economy which is currently under siege from bad sanctions from the west. and it will get worse for them, esp. in 2023, when I think a global recession will happen due to fed raising rates to tame infaltion, and oil prices will collapse this will really hurt their economy and when that happens , well they wont have the monies to finance the war. and that will have a strong direct effect on Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine. and if you look back in history, that was how the USSR collapsed that was how the Russians lost Afghanistan(as the USSR) and the 1st Chechen war. Russia is a net oil and gas exporter and is dependent on high energy prices for a good economy , Russian economy is not diversified. So when oil prices are high , well notice the Russians go to war with Georgia, syria and now Ukraine, when its low, they dont do anything.
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  8241. Allan Lichtman is DA MAN...the most accurate election predictor since I started following him in 1988. Yep so far if you look at the keys. 2 keys are definitely false.(Key #1 Reps control the house since the last midterms . Key #12: Biden is not a charismatic pres. .) and the rest are currently true. (#2. no serious contest to Biden's position in the dem party though lately after the first debate you might have stronger contenders but looking at the DNC line up vs. Biden they look all uncharismatic nowhere near the backing of Biden), #3 Biden is the sitting pres. and still running for a 2nd term. 4. There is no significant 3rd party to challenge biden in fact RFK threatens Trump more than biden. 5. strong economy no recession all time high stock markets. 6. Strong long term economy, yep massive improvement from the last covid crash of 2020. 7. Yes Biden has made several major policy changes during his term like his Covid decrees etc. 8. no unrest, the pro palestine unrest is bullshit, did not affect the USA much, irritating but the Trumpers might cause problems.like BLM did in 2020. 9. No scandal, hunter biden went to jail , he has been forgotten. 10. No foreign military failure, both the Ukraine and Gaza wars while tense have been managed well and not escalated. 11. Bidens decision to aid the Ukrainians massively stopped the Russians from conquering Ukraine, I consider that a major foreign policy success and currently Russia is stuck in a costly unwinnable war in Ukraine and getting desperate. 13. Trump is not charismatic , he is trying to be like fist pumping after his attempted assasination trying to emulate Reagan well this did not garner him more support in fact it just galvanized his supporters. the keys I consider shakey are keys #2, 3 due to the aftermath of the first debate, and key #8 for possible 2020 style riots by the Trumpists after their lord and saviour Trump got assasianted. However I do think all that will pass with Biden getting nominated with strong backing during the DNC in the next month. Also Biden has to come back strong in the 2nd debate. Also the attempted Trump assasination has to be treated reallyi carefully by BIden to avoid the trumpists going crazy and doing shit. but so far Biden has been very conciliatory to Trump. acted like a true gentleman
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  8273. The worst so far, I think there are more worst months to come for Russia, I predict 2023 will be the worst year for RUssia in the war, I think the war will end in early 2024. Putin gets desperate enough to use low yield tactical nukes in Ukraine to prove a point and bring the Ukrainians to the peace table. By that time Russia only control 10 percent of Ukraine as the steadilly improving Ukrainian army has pushed back the increasingly decrepit Russian army, along with collapsing economy, and the Russian ploy by turning off the gas taps to the europeans to force them to stop supporting the Ukrainians failed. has pushed a desperate Putin to order nuke strikes on the Ukrainians. The Russians say that their use is legal since they already annexed these territories and its Russian territory and they have the legal right to defend Russian territory with any force they want. This stops the war, as total sanctions are imposed on the Russians and anyone else who trades with Russia are warned they will get the same sanctions and even more weapons are sent to Ukraine from USA NATO and their allies. A general ceasefire occurs , Korean war style peace talks happen but the peace talks are stalled due to Russia's insistence that all economic sanctions be removed, NATO and Ukraine counters Russia has to withdraw back to pre war borders before the sanctions are removed . NATO also threatens that if more nukes are used , NATO will intervene militarilly in Ukraine which includes sending military forces into Ukraine, NATO mobilizes DEFCON 2, Russia by this time holds around 10 percent of Ukrainian territory having lost Kherson and most of the south. While the peace talks are going on and a ceasefire is supposedly in place this is used by the Ukrainians and Russians to regroup and resupply, there are skirmishes along the line, as well, the Russians try a major offensive which fails badly but the Russians dont use nukes. NATO pressures Ukraine not to do offnesives into Russian occupied territories and just defend what it has gotten so far. NATO has massively upped support for Ukraine and US, ex warsaw pact and possibly even French warplanes are given to the Ukrainians. Peace talks go on until Early 2024 where Putin suddenly dies of "natural causes" or goes into exile to Syria. A new moderate Russian gov. takes over and after some chaos, peace talks finalize in 2024 with the Russians total withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory including Crimea. in exchange for massive economic aid , lifting of all sanctions, and the proviso that no reperations or war crimes will be pursued by the Ukrainians or their allies or any Russian political and military leader. By this time the Russian economy is in near collapse and there is unrest in Russia, new Russian gov. blames all their problems on Putin and his inner circle there is a purge in the RUssian gov. and military , the RUssian withdrawal is also chaotic. In the next ten years Russia slides into chaos as the new gov. is not able to stabilize Russia , and the Turks and Chinese actively support Russian secessionist groups in the Caucasus , Central Asia and East of the urals. which results in Russia losing 50 percent of its pre war territory to secession since the Russian army has practically been cut down due to Russian gov. being bankrupt and cant pay its troops. as for the markets, the NASDAQ will experience its worst crashes since the dot.com bubble/911 back to back crashes from 2000 to 2001 where the nasdaq crashed by 80 percent of its all time high in 2000. I can see the nasdaq crashing to 4K pts. Bitcoin to 5K USD. menawhile, in US politics, De Santis is nominated as the rep party nominee for US pres. elections in 2024, narrowly beating Trump who cries foul. De Santis wins the 2024 US pres. elections. The war has caused mrkets to crash hard worldwide and the US gov. has to print more trillions to save the markets, in short more massive QE lowering interest rates and US inflation goes up to 30 percent. , after the war, US FED raises the interest rates to 30 percent to defeat a 30 percent inflation rate, the woes of the US economy helps De Santis win , and De santis starts lowering Interest rates during his term, US economy booms due to post Ukraine war tensions massively go down, and more friendly relations with China. The years of 2020 to 2024 are known as years of worldwide economic recession. caused by Covid and the Ukraine war. I can see Nasdaq go to all time highs in 2029.
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  8292. THis is what I think will happen: Russia withdraws from Ukraine except for Crimea but withdraws from crimea after western pressure. Putin regime is gone, the new regime wants good relations with the west, so back to 90s borders with Ukraine, a formal peace treaty, I dont think Russia will pay much in reparations since it will be deemed bankrupt with a collapsed economy. All sanctions will be lifted from Russia and possibly even western aid and resumption of business as usual since the West wants the new Russian regime to be pro west and stable. but western investors dont return to Russia but very slowly do so. A lot of unrest in Russia esp. the Russian army collapses in mass mutinies due to a lot of soldiers not being paid due to the Russian gov being bankrupt and there is a lot of political chaos and infighting. Russia slowly goes into some sort of civil war situation, with the Moscow gov having a fragile weak grip on the country which is increasingly governed semi independently or independently by regional entities making decisions independent of Moscow. and forming their own PMCs and miitias. Even Rusian corporations , Russian political factions oligarchs from their own PMCs. some regions of Russia secede like Chechnya, etc. Lots of political instability leads to economic chaos , social unrest collapse of law and order and many part of Russia. I think eventually what happens is that what emerges as a state is still the Russian federation but with Russian provinces and republics having a bit more independence from Moscow. Moscow , St. Petersburg will still be centers of Russian political power and economy but their hold on large parts of Russia will be diminished. But not after suffereing a decade of bloodshed, economic collapse, millions of Russian refugees leaving Russia for other countries. The new Russian federation post putin that comes out of a decade long turmoil will be a federated decentralized state of many states united on mutual protection but each state acts mostly independently of the captial and seat of gov Moscow. (however they do have open borders, free trade, and a national currency). the Russian oligarchs collectively will make sure the sitting Russian pres. in Moscow is controlled by them, they will not allow a person like Putin to rule Russia again.
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  8336. My view of the evolution of military strength for both sides: Russia has gotten militarilly weaker by 50 percent from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023. (suffered 200 to 250K casualties, around 10K total land vehicles lost, 200 aircraft lost, with a stable but weakening economy whcih I think is in reality 25 percent weaker than pre war). . Ukraine has gotten military stronger by 50 percent from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023(suffered around 100 to 150K casualties lost about 2500 vehicles , 100 or so aircraft, economy is only kept alive by the west). I think the war will heat up in 2023 as Ukraine wants to win the war before the US elections and will do offensives. Russia will hang on. to its winnings. probably mobilize more troops. war will heat up even more in 2024. as both sides try to influence the US 2024 elections. with the Ukrs trying to inflict major defeats on the Russians, and the RUssians escalating to try to scare the US voters. and this leads to 2025. the year of decision. by this time, I think the Russians will be exhausted by the losses they have taken, I can see 1 million Russian casualties by 2025. with unrest in Russia due to multiple mobilizaitons, battlefield defeats and a possible economic depression that affects the Russian population. as the Russian economy goes more to a war economy I think by 2025, the Russian war economy woulid be 75 percent of the total Russian economy. which will have a very bad effect on the Russian citizens like food shortages, rationing cuts in welfare or welfare and pensions not being paid or significiantly cut. Public works not being done so Russian roads infrastructure become shabby and become even dangerous. the ruble starts turning into the Zimbabwean currency with sky rockering food prices.
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  8364. well I can say the Russkies have learned from their Kharkov debacle late last year , now they deploy regular blocking forces along the front but have a massive mobile reserves way at the rear to react to Ukrainian offensives, these reserves are used to counterattack to plug up holes in the front. Im not surprised the Ukrainians know of this and are testing out Russian defenses with small attacks, meanwhile the Ukrs are hitting Russian logistics as usual also way back at the fronts. but the Russians seem to have their SAM and ECM defences up. It wasnt like last year when Ukrainain MLRS and HMARs were going to town on Russian logistics. since the Russians did not have their SAMs and ECMs up and organized. Now the Ukrs have to learn how to break thru these defences and silence the Russian SAMs and ECM. and the Ukrainian attacks on the border areas will just get worse I can see the Ukrainians trying a sizable raid to capture Belgorod. it will be funny if the Ukrs manage to capture a sizable city like Belgorod, the Russians will go whacko . I can also see the Russians trying cross border raids from Belarus too. Since the Ukrainians dont have the number of tanks, artillery and air support, I can see the Ukrainian offensive to be a dud. like the Russian winter offensive. both sides are in a stalemate. However the goal now is to cause as many Russian casualties and destroy or capture as many Russian vehicles so the Russians are forced to spend more on the war. thereby affecting its economy and Putin will be forced to mobilize more troops. which will have a bad hit on Putins political standing.
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  8485. Yes looks like trump did and I already figured this one out when he was elected, I was just hoping he will be his usual backstabbing trump self. and backstab putin but looks like the past week just proved he was a pUtin paid stooge all along. As I said many a time, Trump and the entire rep party has been paid for in billions of USD in Russian oligarch money funnelled through Musk and Thiel and others. to Rep super pacs. with the express purpose to get Trump elected. and also the Russians have compromising intel on Trump. I predict the peace talks will fail, the Ukrainains backed up by the EU Canada will refuse Trump imposed peace deals and the war will rumble on and continue. I think Trump pissed off by this , puts 25 percent Tariffs on the supporters of Ukraine and Ukraine itself, NATO supporters of Ukraine will increase their defense spending and armaments production and support Ukraine. USA will probably remove tariffs from Russia, normalize relations while prohibiting arms sales to Ukraine or supporters of Ukraine and posible 25 to 50 percent across the board tariffs on supporters of Ukraine who will be defiant. Basicaly a brutal trade war occurs between most of NATO (except for Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia) vs. the USA. USA also withdraws most troops from Europe in the guise of military spending cuts and trump even tells the Russians they have the green light to attack NATO nations. The Russians and Chinese are much delighted by all this, however this done not stop the war, in fact, the Ukrainians with all constraints removed with increased EU UK and Canadian support continue the war and focus on defense and attacking Russian oil infrastructure with increased intensity, with the USA now acting like an ally of the Russians. US navy escorts Russian shadow fleet, intel is given on Ukrainian plannned attacks to the Russian from the USA. etc. Meanwhile a consitutional crisis is rising in the USA, with Trump trying to control the judiciary and trying to control the FED. as trump interferes with the 2016 house and senate elections and allegations of voter fraud occurs calls for Trump to be impeached increases as the demos control the house and senate with Trump not recognizing the results. as USA economy goes into recession with rising inflation and there is protests in the streets of the US cities. Trump I think calls for martial law and the arrest and dissoluation of Senate and congress and this results in more chaos and unrest.
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  8526. Well if yoiu say comfortable under Brezhnev, that means no breadlines of the 80s. otherwise when compared to the west, Soviet and allied lifestyles are several steps down, similiar to a few steps up the poorset of the 3rd world but western aligned countries. Im from Canada and I remember going to the USSR in the early 80s, and remembered it like the tourist areas were clean , good but the the infrastructure looked old and run down, lots of KGB agents in our hotel the Cosmos, the only 5 star hotel in Moscow in the 80s local citizens had shabby clothes, only cars you see are Russian cars, and a few mercedes benzes driven by Communist officials. and everyone is trying to make a buck out of you since you are a tourist they think all tourist from western countris are millionaires, I remember I was eating in the main resto in th Cosmos hotel, when a waiter approached me and was selling stuff, I bought like several bottles of beluga cavair for like 5 USD each. ( or 3 rubles in 1982). The waiter was a funny guy, he told me he only accepts USD, UK Pound, Deutchmarks, Franc but NO Japanese Yen and Italian Lira hahahaha. He told me those were mickey mouse money and he cant change them. He told me while the Ruble was officially strong , it was also mickey mouse money hahahaah. he offered to change 1 USD to 1 Ruble when the official exchange rate was 1 Ruble = 1.25 USD . He was curious about Canadian dollars though but did not accept it since it was unknown money . We exchanged in his view useless mickey mouse money I bought a bunch of Warsaw pact , North Korean won, from him. and I gave him a bunch of Philippine pesos, Canadian dollars, Hong Kong dollars , Taiwan dollars. in exchange haha. He actually said the so called not accepted western currencies were a lot more valuable than the Ruble and warsaw pact currency haha.
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  8538. Erdogan is probably getting super cheap Russian gas and oil and the USA and EU NATO need the Turks so much they are probably ignoring this one since the Turks have a super strong leverage in the Ukraine war which the USA, Ukraine and EU are desperate to win. Not only that, the Turkish economy has not collapsed yet despite Erdogan's misguided attempts at economic management due to support from the USA and EU. probably giving Turkey a lot of line of credit. if this war did not happen Turkish economy would have collapsed by now and Erdogan would have been kicked out of power. The Ukraine war is probably the best thing that happened to Turkey as the Turks can leverage heavilly the EU and the USA. Erdogan is a master at playing both sides. After teh war , Turkey will be in an excellent position to exploit a post Putin Russia , probably supporting Muslim secessionist groups in the Caucasus and Central Asia in conjunction with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Iran of course will meddle. USA and EU will probably reluctantly allow this post Putin since a strongly weakened but still stable Russia is probably the goal of the USA and NATO since a really weakened but stable pro west Russia will be a great asset for the west. so that its not a geopolitical threat anymore. Post Putin Russia will undergo a period of chaos probably lasting a decade or two where Russia loses 50 percent of its territory to secession, a bunch of new countries will be formed from the ashes of the Post Putin Russian federation losing territories in the Caucasus , Siberia, Central asia, the Far East. In the aftermath of the war, the NATO will probably be disbanded . EU will have a informal military alliance in partnership with USA UK and Canada, as with Russia now really weakened, the Europeans will feel that there is no threat to their security. EU and USA while still in friendly terms and sort of a partnership will be rivals a few generations from now. and the EU will have its own power bloc but still in partnership with the American bloc. USA will be in close partnership alliance with UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea. New Zealand . India will have its own bloc while technically neutral even a member of BRICS its a rival to China and leans to the USA and EU blocs. BRICS will be a rival to EU and USA blocs, it will be a economic alliance and an informal military alliance. with China as the dominant state and with member states in Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, the ASEAN is still there and develops an informal military alliance with its member states , there is a Muslim alliance among Muslim countries where Iran is also a partner despite political rivalry with Saudi Arabia, this is also a economic informal military alliance. WIth Russia gone, China patches relations with the USA but the rivalry is still there and will come up again from time to time.
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  8557. as for the Russians starting to talk to the Americans, yep , that means they are saying shit we need to end the war since we made a grave mistake , we may not win it, probably trying to talk to the Americans for a parlay. And Kissinger is Putins's close friend, in fact, not surprised Putin has blackmail on Kissinger probably with Russian hookers. and probably paid Kissinger lots of money, so if Putin stooge Kissinger, Tucker Carlson, Oliver Stone etc. are all saying that the Ukrainains should compromise and give up land to stop the war, you knows that Russia is super desperate heck Im not surprised the Ukrainians actually win with the Russian economy collapsing, the longer the war goes, the more strain on the Russian economy there is , supposedly Russia is spending close to a billion USD per day to just maintain the war in Ukraine. With very strong sanctions from the west, and the war going longer, the Russian economy will probably collapse or near collapse , then war ends when the Russians just call it quits with Putin probably dead imprisoned out of power. and there is political chaos. The new Russian gov. will blame PUtin for the war, Putin is probably dead at this time, and the new Russian gov. purges many Russian civilian and military officials for the war. The Russians wont have the money to evacuate their troops back to Russia so they just leave them in Ukraine. Post war, Im not surprised not only does Ukraine take back all its territory including the ones occupied by Russia in 2014 to present. but also manages to conquer Transnistria and give it back to Moldova. Russians also withdraw from Belarus which gets a pro Western democratic gov. Post war. Ukraine rebuilds economy booms from a Trillion dollar Marshal plan. Russia in the throes of a civil war.
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  8604. yep I dont think it will take 10 years for Ukr to win vs. Russia. I think it will take at most 2.5 years. I dont think the Russian economy can take this battering for an extended p. that is why you see the Russians trying to cut corners like not paying their troops in Ukraine, throwing in conscripts, deploying old tanks and weapons, massively downsizing their war aims to just taking the Donbass which is a big step down from their earlier goal to conquer all of Ukraine. Yah its true Russia is reaping lots of oil and gas exports but I bet its in a significatnly discounted price from the Indians and Chinese. also the barring of Russian banks from the swift system and freezing of assets means the Russians are only able to access half of their war chest financial reserves, Putin is trying to balance running Russia and maintaining the battered Russian economy and preventing food and important product shortages along with keeping inflation at bay while trying to win the war in Ukraine. Russia is in a time limit , to achieve their current aim of conquering the donbass and then declaring victory and do armistice and peace talks with the Ukrainians and a peace treaty that will leave the Russians in control of their winnings while at the same time restoring the business as usual relationship with the west while looking at the clock trying to do it before the global recession hits. Expect Putin after conquering the donbass to pressure the Ukrainains and their western backers by doing limited offensives, by playing the victim, fortifying their winnings, doing terror attacks on Ukrainian populations centers along with possible cutting oil and gas supplies to the Europeans. and even doing military confrontations wtih the USA and her allies. just to ratchet things up for the west and Ukrainians to come to the peace table and do a peace treaty favorable to the Russians. Putin is like a rat who has been trapped and is trying to fight its way out of the trap its in. The West and Ukrs know exactly what the situation is and have the advantage. All the west and Ukrs needs to do is stay in the fight demand the Russians go back to pre war borders and most sanctions will go away and be adamant about it constantly adamant about it. Putin cannot do that since if he does, well his political career may be over and so with his life. The sanctions have already done much damage to the Russian economy which the Russian people will feel in the next year or so.
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  8676. Im thinking Ukraine war ends in 2025 to 2026. the results of the US Presidential elections of 2024 will be pivotal on how the war ends. If you get a pro peace US pres. in the white house in 2025, said pres. will probably force Ukraine to do a negotiated peace with Russia, with Russia keeping whatever territory it occupies at the time, and significantly lower aid to Ukraine. In this scenario I can see Ukraine keep on fighting until 2026 then go for a negotiated settlement. Putin "wins" with regime survival. If Biden or a Pro ukraine US pres. wins the 2024 elections, well you might see a ramp up of aid to Ukraine, and Putin gets really significantly desperate to find a way out of the war. and will escalate to end the war in 2025. That includes, use of large numbers of chemical weapons, and even tactical nukes. in Ukraine. if his orders for the use of tac nukes is followed, well i can see total sanctions on Russia and a conventional response , air and missle strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine, sinking of the Russian navy in the black sea. Russia will also retaliate with conventional strikes on NATO military bases outside of Ukraine. I dont think there will be ground combat, since NATO does not want to invade Russia and Russia is probably too weak to do so by this time, with much of its military power focused on defeating Ukraine. More like a tit for tat missle and air strikes on each other military assets. Might even extend to other places outside Ukraine like in the Pacific or in Moldova and Kaliningrad. At some point massively high near WW3 tensions which both sides are but not quite there yet as no big ground combat. just a missle and air war between NATO and Russia, NATO troops enter Ukraine but stay away from the Russians and demand a ceasefire and armistice, after much bluster Russians accept and do a korean war style peace agreement with Ukraine. where UN troops deploy to keep the Russian and Ukrainians apart. Russia gets to keep whatever it has conquered but again not recognized by Ukraine and her allies. Russia will still be under worse sanctions than North Korea. with no let up. Sceanrio #2, The Russian military does not follow Putin's nuke launch orders and arrests or kill Putin. This results in a period of infighting in the Russian leadership with the a Junta combining Russian military leaders and oligarchs taking over. Then blaming everything on Putin , and withdrawing all Russian troops back to pre 2022 war borders. Either way the aftermath of these two scenarios will be very similiar with Putin(in scenario #1) and the Junta(scenario #2) not having full political control , in a unstable political and economic environment where the Russian economy is crashing and is bankrupt. along with a good number of political & regional groups contesting the authority of the Kremlin with their own private armies. Along with a perceived defeat in the Ukraine war. where Russian public unrest is strongly rising. I think Russia will post Putin or with Putin in charge with a much weakened Russian military and economy causing Russia to slide to civil war. I think the civil war wil be started with Russian republics esp. in the far east declaring independence and with a bankrupt much weakened Russian army not being able to do anything about it. then it will domino to a general civil war, with multiple secessions , a general collapse of the Russian army in munities since the soliders have not been paid or fully paid. and Russian political groups with their own miltias taking advantage of all this. I think Russia in the late 2020s or even early 2030s will be a very bad Geopolitiical problem for the USA and China and esp. on its neighbours. which will lead to a break up of Russia with Russia losing 50 percent of its pre Ukraine war territory to secession. Russia basially becomes like China in the 1920s, with no central gov. and the country ruled by warlords, revolutionarieis and various armed groups.
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  8690. my opinoin I think Russia lost 250K casualties in Ukraine in 11 months of war, I would say about 60K dead. Ukraine is the worst war Russia has experienced since WW2. Many of the dead are not even recovered since they were blown to bits , left on the battlefield unaccounted for. A lot of the Russian dead came in the past few months with conscripts and Penal troops being sent in WW1 style attacks. Ukraine incurred abut 100K casualties, with 10K dead. The Ukrs dont fight the Russians head on and prefer to hit them from afar or in ambushes and dont waste their men like the Russians. Also Ukrs troops get the best battlefield medical, NATO medicines, doctors, and evacuation for their wounded to NATO hospitals. Russians, nope, medicine shortagfe, first aid shortage, only officeres get medical evacuation, the troops, if you are wounded pray that you have the first aid or medical to treat your wounds, many die due to being wounded from infection due to lack of medical, many resort to impromptu medical like pour9ing vodka over wound, etc. I think this war will go on possibly until 2025, I think Putin is banking on Trump to win the US presidential elections of 2024, however if Desantis or biden wins again, this war is lost to Russia and Putin will really get desperate, by that time, 3 years of war, has really cored out the Russian army I would say if the war lasts that long, Russia will probably have lost around 1 million casualties , of that 250K dead. Ukraine wouuld lose around 250K to 500K casualties of that 25k to 50K dead. Rusia would probably have mobilized 3-5 millioin men by that time. and its caused unrest , mamy of the Russian army is kept back in Russia for unrest suppression. that many armed troops in a defeat will cause a civil war.
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  8770. If putin uses nukes, in Ukraine, NATO military intervention in Ukraine. I think NATO will hit the Russian positions in Ukraine and crimea with conventional weapons, and NATO troops will enter Ukraine , I think before the Russians use nukes they would have very much prepared before hand , like more mobilization uptick in Russian troop deployments along NATO borders, and the Russian black sea fleet leaving crimea and going to Russian ports. and his troops in Ukraine hunkering down. and when Putin uses nukes in Ukraine it will be multiple tac nukes hitting Ukr logistics , command centers, communication lines. transport hubs. Putin will do this to force NATO to intervene to end the war, I think the Russians will endure the conventional NATO attacks but will not retaliate. In fact Putin warns NATO if NATO ground forces try to push the Russians out of Ukraine, the Russians will use nukes on NATO. So this will effectively freeze the war to an armistice. SO putin can go back and say he aquired a lot of territory from Ukraine. However total sanctions on Russia will remain. Russia goes into economic free fall depression economic collapse. However Putin has massively mobilized his secruity and military forces and is still in power having barely suppressed unrest. Putin is still in power and even manages to do a victory march in the Kremlin, however his hold on power is tenous, his oligarchs have already lost so much with most of their foreign assets seized. Russian threats of war with NATO if the West does not stop the sanctions falls of deaf ears. while the economy has collapsed and Russia is a isolated pariah state similiar to North korea. Putin still holds power albeit tenously. Ukraine loses 25 percent of its territory to Russia. large parts of its territory contaminated by radiation and chemical weapons. having lost a few hundred thousand dead soldiers and more civlians however Ukraine remains defiant while aggreing to peace terms does not recognize the areas Russia has occupied, Ukraine becomes a NATO protectorate with hundreds of billions of USD poured into teh country for reconstruction. NATO warns Russia any attacks on Ukraine will result in war with NATO. NATO troops are deployed in Ukraine. UN troops are deployed between lines of control between Russia and Ukraine. Despite martial law, millions of Russians leave Russia as the economy is in free fal and the gov unstable. in the next ten years after the end of the war, putin dies shortly after the endof the war, there is turmoil and power struggle in the Kremlin, meanwhile the unrest in the Russian republics grow as returned troops from Ukraine mainly not paid or partly paid revolt. Russian military mutinies as many are not paid. due to the gov being bankrupt. massive shortages in basic goods. the Russian ruble going into inflation weimar style free fall. A new Russian gov. takes over in Moscow and begs teh west for negotiations. Russia would leave Ukraine entirely including Crimea in exchange for the total lifting of sanctions, economic aid and normalization of relations with teh west. Russia also finalizes a formal peace treaty with Ukraine and acceptance when Ukraine joins the EU and NATO. Depsite foreign aid and lifting of sanctions, Russia loses 25 percent of its territory to secession in the Caucasus and Central Asia. while there is normalization of relations with the west, western companies mostly do not reinvest back into Russia. Chinese companies buy many Russian companies to control its energy sector, China also supports the newly independent former Russain repbulics anad invests in them. so does Turkey. Post putin Russia never really recovers economically , its a corrupt anarchic state with chaotic economic and politics with a downsized military but strong internal security force. The more or less Pro Western leadership in Moscow has a tenous grip on power.
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  8781. I personally think De Santis with 360 on his position on Ukraine if he gets elected in 2024. De Santis will stay the course in Ukraine and even increase aid. Who putin wants is Trump to be pres. again, that will mean Putin will get away with whatever Territory he still controls. and the war will probably go longer. as even with no support from the USA Ukraine will still keep on fighting. but without USA aid Ukraine will be forced to negotiate with the Russians possibly with the Russians having the upper hand. Then again by the time 2025 rolls and a US pres. takes over(pro peace or not), the Russian military will be in a bad shape, and economic sanctions will probably be felt by the Russian population and the Russian political situation would be unstable since despite Putin "winning this war" by say keeping 25 percent of Ukraine. the areas he conquered have a devastated infrastructure, heavilly depopulated and needs to be rebuilt from the ground up and Russia will not have the funds to do that. Putin's political position will really be fragile and his rivals will probably overthrow him and blame him for the predicament Russia is in. So "winning" for Putin is regime survival, and yes he can get a peace deal withi the Ukrainians with him keeping the devastated 25 percent of ukraine but he probably will not survive long after the war is over. and after putin is gone, there will be a power struggle , a civil war, which will be fought with private armies. Russia descends into civil war. and becomes like China in the 1920s , a country ruled by Warlords with no central authority.
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  8835. this is why Trump won win 2024, a trump win will be so awful for the USA foreign policy and have grave effects on the USA that the establishment will probably not allow trump to run burying him in court cases. I think all this drama with trump while looking ominous will ensure a Biden win, no matter how close it may get, that is why 2024 will be a crazy year. with Putin to the wall and desperate to get a Trump victory and doing everything he can to scare the USA public and investors to vote for Trump , and crash the US economy. This will fail, and with a Biden victory in 2024, the war in Ukraine will end in 2025, with the Russian elites overthrowing Putin. to cut hteir losses so they can get normal relations back with the USA and the west and sanctions all lifted. Also this will end Trump's career, and Maga will be kaput or at least seriously hurt, with Putin gone, this will have a massive effect on the world. Maga politicos lose power probably get criminal charges on them after defeat. Russia withdraws from Ukraine totally including the crimea, Georgia dream party looses power in Georgia, leader of the party jailed for treason. within a decade of the fall of Putin and defeat of Russia: 1. Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Mopldova all join NATO and the EU , Armenia joins the EU but not NATO(due to Turkish objections). 2. Georgia, and Moldova get back their seperatist states created by Russia. 3. Russia becomes a massive mexico style narco state where the Russian gov is very weak and the real power is in the hands of the Russian oligarchs and Mafia cartels.
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  8836. ts very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends. Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up. So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more. I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war. Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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  8994. Yep but in this case the USA and NATO , EU and their allies are all against Putin and will not let go. Putin's psychology of fighting to the end will probably work on smaller nations who the west do not have any stake in like Chechnya, Georgia, Syria(the west just let him do his thing which was also beneficial to them). However Ukraine is different. Ukraine is important to the EU since it has the largest undeveloped gas deposits in Europe which can finally end Russian domination of energy exports to Europe. The Events of 2014 -2015 made Putin think that Ukraine was a pushover and the little sanctions the west made to Russia meant to Putin that the west wont do anything if Putin invaded and since the Ukraine army did a poor showing in 2014-2015 they will just fold up when he invaded in Feb 2022. Well Putin totally miscalculated and underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians who fought back hard and totally made fools of the Russian army harkening back to the winter war USSR vs. Finland 1940. Now Putin is now fighting against the Ukr kiev gov. who is also backed to a corner who wants nothing less than victory over Russia meaning a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine back to Pre war borders. USA NATO EU now put the worst sanctions on Russia in recent history as well as massively supporting Ukraine with weapons, financial aid and volunteers. So if you compare the total GDPs economies of the nations involved in the Ukraine war. Ukraine along with its USA, EU and allied backers have a total gdp of 46.3 trillion USD vs. Russia's GDP of 1.48 trillion USD. Ukraine and her allies have 46 X the GDP of Russia and all Ukraine's allies are financing Ukraine's economy and military , Russia may have his Indian, Iranian and Chinese allies but they dont directly support Russia financially. they may buy his exports but do not give Russia free money and weapon systems. the USA EU NATO and their allies on the other hand gave around 80 billion USD of miiltary and financial aid to Ukraine. Since Jan 2022. Russia's military spending in 2021 was around 66 billion USD. THe Russian economy is also cut off from swift and cannot pay its debts and is in default, also its economy is reliant on high oil prices and current export to EU nations particularly Germany. to keep its economy alive, also most foreign investors have withdrawn from Russia further cratering its economy. So Putin is in a deep hole and while Putin is trying to get out, his fight back hard to the finish line mentality woking with a poorly motivated poor quality Russian army , with a rapidly cratering economy, along with strong highly motivated Ukrainian resolve to fight to the end and expel the Russians back to pre war borders and strong USA and EU NATO resolve to support Ukraine means Putin is just digging a deeper hole for himself. That is why Putin is downgrading his goals hoping that in doing so , he can achieve his goals easier so he can show his people that he has won and gotten something out of the war and dictate peace terms to teh Ukrainians. and Im not surprised the Ukrainians will refuse and keep on fighitng and the west will keep on supporting the Ukrainians and its here Putin will get desperate and even more dangerous ratcheting up tensions with NATO and the USA to near war levels not seen since the cuban missle crisis of the 1960s to pressure Ukraine's allies to make it accept Russian peace terms. and ending the sanctions. Also I will not be surprised if the Russians use chemical weapons and tactical nukes and dares the west to respond. In this case Putin will really have to be really desperate with his back to the wall. I dont think Putin wants WW3, I dont think he wants to fight NATO since he knows he will get his ass kicked. But he does want to survive politically since if he loses political control, he also loses his life.
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  9060. As putin gets desperate he will be at his most dangerous. Probably ratcheting up tensions with teh west to near war levels not seen since the cuban missle crisis. officially annexing his winnings in Ukraine saying its Russian territory so he can legally mobilize and crom forbid legally be allowed to use tactical nukes. These tensions will make a global recession even worse crash the markets even more. I think by autumn, Ukraine would have trained a significant force of several hundred thousand volunteers properly enough to do a proper effective operational offensive and the Russians on the other hand are getting weaker. militarily, the new recruits they are throwing in are traiined about a week or so or even less bfore they throw them in Ukraine, there are reports some of them dont even know how to use a machine gun. Prisoners are even being recruited. Its that desperate. Putin is going and begging and buying drones from Iran. the Russian military is getting to be that stupid. Putin getting significant defeats on the battlefield will really endanger him politically. Putin I think is really hesitant to use nukes, since he knows the poliitcal implcations on this one. his enemies in the Russian gov. willl not only not obey to use tac nukes but use this to remove him from power. In a good ending, scenario autumn to winter 2022-2023, Ukrainian renewed counteroffensive deal decisive defeatrs on the Russian army in southern Ukraine, gain significant territory, heck even Kherson is captured. after Russian army in the south to near collapse. the Russian army in Ukraine is unravelling. Putin ratchets up tensions with the west, Putin orders the use of tac nukes to stop the Ukrainians, his orders are not followed instead putin in placed under arrest. Russian gov. annoucnes Putin has died of "natural causes" during surgery. New Russian gov announces ceasefire and peace talks, after a few months of talks, Russian forces withdraw back to pre war borders. Most sanctions are removed business as usual except for most western investors dont go back to Russia, and the EU gradually levels down their energy buys from Russia. Plans are underwayi to develop Ukrainian gas fields and the EU can buy gas from Ukraine. hundreds of billions of USD of economic reconstruction aid to Ukraine from USA and EU. Ukraine is fast tracked to EU membership, NATO membership also fast tracked. Russian gov barely protests and blames the war opn Putin and hjis inner circle. Russia does undedrgo a period of political and economic social turmoil but the Russian army is intact and the economy while depressed does not collapse. Russia gives back the crimea in exchange for massive economic aid and full lifting of sanctions. lots of Chinese investment in Russia, the USA and EU counter and western investments come back to Russia. It is not to the best interest of the USA that Russia collapses nor have its gov and economy to be dominated by the Chinese. Bad ending: Putin uses nukes to stop the Ukr army offensive. NATO enters Ukraine and forces a ceasefire for both sides. No WW3 but tensions are bad worse than cuban missle crisis. Armistice is declared after months of negotiations, there is a peace treaty with UN troops being deployed in Ukraine However while Russia gets to keep its winning in Ukraine Russia is practically a pariah state No trades with USA and EU and their allies, Economy is worse , near collapse. Putin dies a few years later after that Political, economic and social chaos in Russia, to near civil war levels. Russian economy collapses. Russian revolution in Moscow, Russia breaks up and loses 50 percent of its territory to secession esp. In the Caucasus , Siberia , Far East. Army cant do anything as it collapses due to bankrupt Russian gov.k not able to pay its military. This chaos takes 10 years or more to play out. But when the smoke clears, Russia the moscow gov. still controls 50 percent of Russia, west of the Urals. the others turn into a colleciton of Indpependent republics dominated by China, Turkey , Saudi. The new Moscow Gov. is democratic and Pro West. Ukraine gets back all of its territory including Crimea. as the Russian gov. wants western aid .
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  9078. and its a bloody failure for the Russians, their attacks are stalled and they have not created a breakthrough in Ukrainian lines. 50K Russian casualties so far in a month of the offensive , and its becoming a disaster for the Russian in the current Kharkov offensive. Interestingly a lot of the cannon fodder here are foreign volunteers from India, Cuba , Nepal , Bangladesh etc. Also not much tanks are being used by the Russians, instead the Russians are using Chinese made golf carts , trucks, and vintage UAZ loaf trucks to ferry these guys to the front. The Russians have entered the grey zone. but have not really advanced to hit the main Ukrainian lines. THe Ukrainians hit the Russians with drones and artillery hard. Also the Ukrainians hit Russian logistics hard with HMARS, ATACMs and storm shadows , so with the Russian logistics in really bad situation, the Russians cannot launch big coordinated attacks, but have to attack piece meal since their logistics cannot support it. So the Russians cannot really advnace due to a bad logistical situation and the Russian troops suffering heavy losses from mass drone attacks and Ukrainian artillery guided by drones. Also the Ukrainian are using cluster munitions on the Russians. Also Russian brute force tactics have not changed much so hence the high Russian losses for little gain. The Russians are trying to improve the logistical situation but throwing lots of supplies tot he front but these are getting hit hard by Ukrainian missle strikes. and the Ukrainians seem to have excellent intel on Russian logistics.
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  9138. I predict a biden win in 2024 will result in a Russian retreat from Ukraine in around 2026. Russians will cut their losses and blame everything on Putin just like Yeltsin did in Chechnya but he survived. Putin will not . Russian wealth fund is set to run out by 2025, and Russians will begin to suffer tank shortages by 2026. I dont think Russia will collapse but it will undergo a period of political, socail and economic chaos. It will be a hard landing for its economy, but I think Russia will receive economic aid from the USA and EU in exchange for a complete withdrawal from Ukraine which will help cushion an economic collapse . It will be a massive mess, however a new Russian fed will come out and Moscow and the Russian army will have a lot less power , the real power of the new Russia will be the Russian oligarchs and their PMCs. in fact Russian republics and provinces will have a lot more autonomy and probably their own PMCs. The oligarchs will never allow a person like putin to come to power again, Yes Russian will technically be a country with Moscow as its political and economic captial but it will be more decentralized and the provinces can have the chance to develop much better than during the past times. Moscow and St. Petersburg wont be the only cities in Russia that are worth something. the Russian federation will be more like a Russian association a alliance of countries rather than a centralized country. I think eventually down the decades Russia might actually break up for real,
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  9152. I say part of a larger offensive. Putin can afford to throw a lot of expendable cheapo infantry at the Ukrainians. I still think the Russians have held back their "best" troops. and are throwing their conscripts and so called "volunteers" at the Ukrainians, heck not surprised they are also throwing North Koreans at the Ukrainians. as the North Koreans have been said to be sending soldiers to Ukraine in exchange for oil gas, grain. As for the Ukrainians yes they are losing a lot of troops but also they can afford to replace them for now. Russia vs. Ukraine is a very interesting see saw attritional war. and I think in the end it will boil down to the economy, whose economy collapses first. or a negotiated settlement. Russians have a economy only held up by high oil prices and the fact the Europeans are still buying their gas and oil and make up 40 percent of their energy sales. however due to the sacntions Russian economy is increasingly getting hammered. the Ukrainains have a worse economy but its held up by USA EU and their allies help constant billions of dollars of cash flows into the Ukrainian economy is keeping it alive. On the ground both teh Russians and Ukrainians have strong manpower reserves of course the Russians have ten times the manpower reserves than the Ukrainains , weapons wise , the Ukrainians are getting massive inflows of some of the most advanced weapons from NATO, The Russians are increasingly going through their reserve weapons and are incresaingly sending older weapons to the front.
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  9162. well I think 100 years from now, there will be no Putin monuments and statues, and he will be remembered alright as hitler 2.0, bumbling hitler waanabe, for the Russians, he will be seen as a severe disappointment, and his name will be cursed and synonymous to catastrophic failure. due to overreaching ambition. As for Russia, I can see a Russia going thru a period of political social and economic chaos. while I dont htink Russia will break up. I think the new post war post Putin Russia that will emerge will be one where the oligarchs are the real rulers, the moscow gov and military are just puppets of hte oligarchs and their PMCs and tehy will never allow any leader like Putin to emerge, the Russian army will be kept weak , the real military power will be in the numerous PMCs, Moscow will be weak, and the Russian provinces and republics will have a bit more autonomy and have their own military power in their PMCs while swearing fealty to Moscow. The 90s will be back in style and on roids and will last for decades. Meanwhile Russian leaders will focus on economic recovery while also enriching themselves, corruption will never be resolved and will actually get worse, and even Russian leaders miltary and civlians will have their own PMCs. Russia becomes the largest narco state in the world and a criminal activity haven due to poor control of the Russian gov and very bad corruption. Also Russia will be a battleground of influence between USA and China, for their resources along with other actors such as EU, Turkey, various neighbouring states. Meanwhile millions of Russians leave Russia for better greener pastures.
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  9179. As said before the USA 2024 elections which is coming up next week is pivotal to the final outcome of this war, esp. if the dems sweep the house and senate, Kamala and her advisory team is even more hawkish than biden on Ukraine, and the Russian economy cannot stand another 4 years of war at this rate and its going to get worse for Russia as the US further increases its aid to Ukraine under the Kamala harris admin. and removes further restrictrions to the use of USA weapons on Russian soil. Putin himself knowing his psychology will still continue to fight on hoping a donald trump type politico gets elected in 2028 but his elites will probably think otherwise and cut their losses and remove him from power. Not surprised if in 2025, Putin will do one last throw of the dice to capture the important Donbass town of Pokrovsk, this may become the Kursk(1943) of this war, a pivotal battle which broke the German army in the eastern front in WW2, this battle may not only break the Russian army but also break the confidence of Russian elites in Putin's war in Ukraine. Putin in the face of a Kamala Harris win and increasing aid to Ukraine needs to win a major battle in order to show to the Russian elites he still has the ability to run this war. if he losses, that will be the end for the Putin regime. Even if he wins at Pokrovsk in 2025, his army will still be weakened and the Ukrainains will not break and he still have several heavilly fortified towns to get through before he conquers all of the Donbass.
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  9184. I predict war ends in 2025 with a negotiated settlement, possibly 1st quarter of 2025 with the lines frozen. Russia controlling 20 percent of Ukraine, no Euro troops for Ukraine but Ukraine receives hundreds of billions of USD in rebuild aid plus the right to rebuild its military. no peace treaty. its a korean war style armistice both Russia and Ukraine technically still at war. Trump threatens the Russians if they told cool off and stop their offensives and agree to an armistice, USA will resume military aid to Ukraine. even bigger than what Joe Biden sent. In return Russia gets all sanctions lifted, its foreign funds unfrozen. Both sides will declare victory , however analysts will conclude the Russians technically won a marginal victory controlling 20 percent of Ukraine. however the Russians while saying its a victory wont feel its a victory, the Russian military has been embarassed, discredited, Putin's hold on power disrupted diminished as elites start doing the blame game on how incompetently the Russian military and gov handled the war. Putin will of course Purge and arrest elites who he thinks threatened his power along with firing a bunch of generals and replacing them with more loyal officers. All this in the midst of a Russian economy in depression, possibly hyperinflation and high unemployment rates, social instabilty due to high crime rates and returning Russian veterans ,foreign investors most dont come back to Russia. and the Europeans are still hostile to Russia. Ukraine meanwhile also declares victory that they managed to survive and bloody the Russian bear despite Russia's massive military capabilities. however they feel they lost the war and are angry and vengeful and want to take back their lost territories and then some. Ukrainians receive hundreds of billions of USD in aid along with investments from the west. the Ukrainians rearm and reform their military along NATO lines removing old Soviet style command structures and doctrines. along wtih rebuilding a booming economy. Also the Ukrainians secretly pursue the development of nukes. as insurance vs. the Russians. Ukrainians also support Russian secessionist groups and anti gov forces. trying to exacerbate the already bad social and political situation in Russia. Meanwhile the Russians are busy trying to rebuild their economy and reform and rebuild their military. Putin does not have the stomach for another war since he just got out of the lat one with the skin of his teeth. But fears the resurgence of a vengeful Ukrainian military in the future. while at the same time trying to secure his regime. Not surprised if round 2 happens like 10-20 years after the possible armistice of 2025. Whether Putin is in power or not. While there is an armistice , Ukraine and Russia relations are still very hostile. both sides do everything to undermine the other in the intermission period until the next war occurs again.
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  9188. I predict breadlines coming back to Russia probably in 2025-2026. I tihnk the full force of the economic sanctions will be felt when Russia destabilizes which I think will occur in 2025-2026. The Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2024. thereby bankrupting the Russian gov, economic collapse is not long coming after that. and all this culminates with rising unrest due to economic depression, losing battles which leads to political destabilization of Putin's hold on power, Putin trying to mobilize more men for the war and resorting to forcing and drafting Russians to fight on the battlefield results in more unrest. and if Putin ever becomes so desperate that he orders a nuke used, he will get overthrown by his own people and that is where the collapse will occur as Russian oligarchs have their own PMCs private armies which fight each other for succession of rule in Russia. and also add in the local regional militias and secessionists. no more MOscow central control and a collapsing economy means secession, also add China Turkey encourages secessinists group in Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Russia to secede and supports them financially , recognition and weapons. in order to access their natural resources. USA and EU will probably try to counter this by supporting the Moscow gov and their favorite factions. I think after a decade of bloodshed there will be several new nations in what used to be the Russian Federation, Russia will lose 50 percent of its pre war land but it will still be the largest state in post Russian fed Russia. and center of finance and industry, all the rest will be a collection of Turkish and Chinese puppet states
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  9193. post war with a view that the war ends sometime before summer or summer next year. Russia will have suffered 100K dead. several hundred thousands more injured. several thousand destroyed AFVs and several hundred shot destroyed aircraft. Interestingly post war, it will be interesting if NATO still exists without a Russian threat. Russia will not be viewed as a threat anymore post war , in the same way pre war. I think a threat in terms of millions of Russian refugees flooding into Europe. the state of its nuclear stockpile. and fears of Chinese control of Russia and some resurgence fears from Russia. This might be NATO's last hurrah before it gets disbanded without a Russian threat. The major threat will shift to China. But it would be so distant from Europe that it wont really be seen as a threat but an annoyance, but the USA , will see China as the reallyi the next main threat. For China the fall of Putins Russia will be seen more as a huge opportunity to control the Russian far east and Siberia, Central Asia for its resources, also North Korea will fully be under Chinese control without a Putin Russia which the NKs can play off against China, the DPRK will fullly fully be dependent on China, I think the Chinese will engineer the gradual phasing out of the Kim family control and shift North Korea to the Chinese economic and political model. The Chinese will support the creation of various independent former Russian republics from the Russian Far Easte Sibveria central asia and the Caucasus and bring them under Beijings political and economic control. and really get exploited for their resources. eseentially becoming pro Chinese puppet states. The fallout from this unrest will be millions of Russian refugees streaming into Europe.
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  9348. I read recently , western military analysts are predicting that towards the end of 2025, the Russians will run out combat vehicles left over from the cold war and still in storage. This will cut Russia's ability to refurbish and produce by two thirds or more and the head of Russia's central bank said that country's economy cannot maintain stability at these levels indefinitely. Each month , Russia feeds around 15-30K men into Ukraine and these men are removed from an economy that is already short of 5 million labourers since December 2023 and Ukrainian drones are also attacking Russia's weapons production facilities. The Russian strategy is to first do air and artillery bombardments followed by mechanized and dismounted attacks , frontal attacks at that without much imagination, the Russians attack until they run out of men , ammo and equipment. Then after a few days of refurbishment , they attack again. Such attack strategies are very costly in Russian lives and materiel but its slowly taking ground. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not suffering as high losses as the Russians but the Ukrainians are being forced to give up ground in these attacks due to artillery ammo shortages and the use of Russian glide bombs which the Ukrainians cannot stop. So Russia is on a time limit to win this war. The longer Russia is in this war the more damaged the Russian army , economy and poliitical situation is. I think 2024 is the most important year of the war, its pivotal due to the USA elections of 2024. If Biden wins, Russia has probably until the end of 2025 to acheve some sort of win in this war, since 2026 is in my opinion the point of no return year for Russia. I still think the way Russia loses this war is similiar to how Russia lost WW1, due to revolution and civil war. Putin will never give up , he will fight this war to victory no matter the cost. He will probably have to be removed by civil and military uprising. as of 2024, the Russian people are still tolerant of this war, however there are cracks starting to appear, but I think when the Russian economy cannot support how this war is going , going into Venezuela style hyperinflation , rising food prices along with Ukrainian major victories int he battlefield....well we might see a repeat of 1917.
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  9399. I forsee the Russian civil war starting in 2026 when a coaltion of oligarchs, regional militias with their PMCs along with factions of the Russian military get sick and tired of the Putin regime and fearing Putin will purge them move against Putin. Putin is overthrown by 2027 and is allowed to leave Russia for exile in Syria and dies of natural causes a few years later. Meanwhile the coalition falls apart when in power and a new civil war erupts. Meanwhile several republics like Chechnya, Tatarstan declare independence. While this is happening. Ukraine takes back Crimea in the late 2020s. as the varous Russian factions are busy fighting each other and Russia is without a gov. civil war ends sometime in the early 2030s with the Russian Fed surviving with 50 percent less of its pre war territory and several new ex. Russian fed nations emerging. also with the downfall of Putin, Belarus coverthrows Lukashenko new Liberal gov applies to join NATO and EU. So does Armenia, Georgia(georgian dream party is overthrown). Urkaine joins NATO shortly after the war is over. Meanwhile a new regime takes over in what is left of the Russian fed. which is authoritarian first but shifts to a democratically elected gov (to satisfy the west and restore normal relations and get rid of the sanctions) simliar to the Pre war Ukrainian gov with the real power held by oligarchs and leaders change via general elections. siding with the west(since the oligarchs dont want to get controlled by China). China meanwhile supports the various new Russian fed republis and the Central Asian former USSR republics making them into Chinese economic puppets, a defensive pact is formed later betweeen China and these nations simliar to the CSTO.
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  9412. well my prediction you havent seen anything yet. the worse will be next year, Russian cut off gas to the Euros , that fails to make the Euros remove their support for Ukraine in fact they double up their support and embargo the Russians more, Nexrt up a desperate Putin using tac nukes in Ukraine to force a ceasefire and peace negotiations, probably happens mid 2023. then war ends in latre 2023 ot early 2024 with the death of Putin. in the meantime this causes near war tensions with NATO , NATO troops entering Ukraine but not confronting the Russians, warning the Russians any more nuke use vs. the Ukrainians will result in war with NATO. bit more weapons to Ukraine including French and American fighter jets. total sanctions vs. the Russians, Russian labelled a terrorist stat. all these result in the end, Russians withdraw from Ukraine including from Crimea, in exchange removal of all sanctions on Russia, normalization of relations between Russia and EU NATO and their allies, and economic aid. the effect: I agree with Harry Dents theory of three crash phases for the markets with phase one alrady occuring in mid june. Phase 2 mid 2023 nasdaq goes down to 6K pts. BTC to 9K USD. then late 2023 mid 2024, nasdaq goes down to 3K pts, BTC to 4K USD. and its not only the Ukraine war, its also collapse of the Chinese economy, worlwide recession , the FED doing a massive QE to save a market collapse in the USA which causes inflation to go to 20 to 30 percent, then in 2024 a massive rise in the interest rates to 30 percent or more to destroy inflation. My strategy Im going to buy in at phase 2, FTM, sell when it bounces Then in 2029 to 2033 when the next bull run happens, Nasdaq goes to all time highs, BTC goes to 500K USD. FTM I think will go to 0.10 USD bounce to .30 to .50 USD in late 2023 then crash to .05 USD then in 2029 to 2033 go as high as 30 USD.
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  9450. a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps Russian Order of battle: 2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X. Ukrainian Order of battle: 13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X. aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk. Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster. also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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  9574. Ukrainians I believe are doing multiple strong probes into Russian controlled territory, with its main strike force in reserve at the back. the Russians did something similiar but failed badly with Bakhmut arguably their only success in the winter offensive however in that case the Ukrainians stlll hold ten percent of the city with Ukrainian flanking attacks reportedly successful. The Russians built a formidable defence during winter with Russian regular infantry as blocking forces in trenches , fortifiucations along with teh lines with massive numbers of mechanized units held far back as a rapid reaction counterattack force backed up by heavy artillery and air power. For the Ukrs its a very hard job to break thru the lines since they dont have air superiority(neither do the Russians) and the Russians are on the defense behind trenches and fortifucations and back up by superior artillery. A Ukrainian advantage for be NATO sattelite intel. I think the Ukrs for now are trying to shape the battlefield, make the Russians stretch resources and manpower. all the while both sides hit each other infrastructure and logistics, the Russians built up strong SAM and ECM defences in occupied Ukraine which makes Ukr HMARS JDAM and even Storm Shadow strikes less effective. if the USA can get around the Russian ECM, this will be a game changer and yah probably open the way to punching a hole and majorly exploiting thru Russian defences as Russian logistics and command and control get disrupted so much that its not able to counteract Ukrainian probes.
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  9578. Yes I think 2024 is a very important year for both sides of the war since its the USA 2024 presidential elections and I think its pivotal to determining the final outcome of this war, and Putin will do everything to get trump or someone like him to win the elections and cut off aid to UKraine, and force Ukraine to an armistice. So yah expect this war to get a lot worse in 2024 as Putin has his back to the wall. and getting very desperate so his regime survives and he does not fall out of a window. So yah Putin will probably do: 1. Full mobilization, and go to total war footing as PUtin has nothing to lose and very desperate. 2. Escalate the confrontation between Russia and NATO to the point of near war status, to scare US voters to vote for a pro peace candidate. also crash the markets and put the US economy into recession. Putin and the Russian elites will be watching the events of the 2024 USA elections and the results will have a pivotal impact on the war. If Trump (or someone like him) wins, war ends in 2025 or 2026 with an armistice with Russia with the Russians keeping whatever they won in Ukraine. Putin will spin this as a victory and his regime survives. or if Biden wins war ends in 2025 or 2026, USA further increases aid to Ukraine maybe even more sanctions on Russia, Russia may try all out desperate offensives to try to inflict as much damage on the Ukrainians and dig in again for the 2028 US elections. but I think the Russian economy cannot take the strain of 4 more years of the war anymore, Russian economists forecast that the Russian economy can last until 2025 or 2026 before it starts faltering badly. and military analysts forecast that Russia will have tank and APC shortages by 2026, judging by the rate of loss of Russian tanks and APCs in the war. Russian elites will probably move to oust Putin and his clique from power in order to save as much of their economy as possible stop the war , remove sanctions and move to much better relations with the west, and probablyi order a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including the crimea. Russians will cut their losses.
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  9659. russians are so amusing when Russia loses this war, Russia will civil war. No army to prevent the other republics to break away from Russia as the gov is bankrupt and with weak contested leadership. Back in 1917, when Russia was breaking up at least you had the Communists to rally behind, the Russian commies manage to rally many subjects of the Russian empire to reign in most of the breakaway republics(Except for the Baltic states, Poland and Finland), now after this war is over there will be no Commie party , red army to rally behind, it will be a bunch of PMCs , regional militias, warlords etc. no strong leadership or ideology to rally behind, I think for a decade or so Russia will resemble China in the 1920s where there was no central gov. and the country was ruled by warlords with their own private armies. The only time China got unified was when the KMT Chinese nationalsits who preached a Chinese republican ideology that Sun yat Sen Espoused managed to gain popularity among the Chinese people to rally vs. the warlords. They managed to Unify China tenously in 1929 with the success of the Northern Expedition but were later overthrown by the CCP in 1949. I think Russia will undergo a period of political economic chaos maybe 10 years then the Russian people will get sick and tired of blood shed and chaos and manage to stabilize their country. Probably with 50 percent less of their pre war territory lost to secession. I think Russia will have a authoritarian military junta at first but will become later a Euro centeric more or less democratic state with Western support, I think the future Russia after this war is over. will be still be the largest country in the world despite losing massive amounts of territory to secession and will have most of the industrial areas under their control, yes it will be very hard for Russians to endure but I think Russia will bounce back after many years of purging its Soviet and Putin regime past and move to be a real civliazed democratic European country. Heck I can see Russia possibly joining NATO and the EU in like 40-50 years. with a view on opposing a resurgent China in the east.
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  9679. another one, I think the Loss of India due to independence would probably lead to the gradual decolonization of the British empire in the 60s like in OTL becoming a commonwealth, this esp. in the face. of a new power balance post WW3 1950 to 1956. (I posited WW3 in this timeline would be Germany vs. the USSR, Japan vs. the USA with the British neutral. I think Germany vs. USSR round 2, would result in the USSR pushing all the way tot he Pyrenees. conquering all of Western and Eastern Europe with the exception of Spain and Portugal(British troops land there to protect them from the USSR). commie revolutions in France and Italy make conquests easier. Japan is conquered by the USA and later turned into a USA territory like Puerto Rico, I posit the USA lost like 1.5 million dead in the pacific war tht the USA would not give the Japanese independence(the Japaanese probably lost like 15 million dead in the war or roughly ten percent of its population. ) and turn it into an American territory. purge its military and civlian leadership with thousands hanged is post war war crimes trials. USSR would probably conquer manchuria, Korea, and Hokkaido and the Sakhalins. China woud turn commie under the CCP and support commie rebellions in indochina, Burma. New cold war between USA and the USSR. starting 1957. Again no nukes are developed in this timeline's WW3 but a bunch of innovations are used like mass use of jet fighters, long range missles.,.use of computers(USA) for logistics management, mass use of assault rifles(Germany , USSR). Atomic bombs are probably devleoped during the cold war but not used in war. Maybe in WW4 between the USA and USSR.
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  9696. I predict by end of 2025 Russians will suffer well over 1 million casualties total . I predict Trump will continue to support Ukraine as the USA military industrial complex is profiting hard supplying the Ukrainians in the war. and they have strong influence with Donald Trump in fact I predict Trump will crank up the weapons supply to Ukraine so more money for USA military industrial complex. as for war ending. NOt surprised if war ends in 2025 or in 2026. Russians already mentioned in 2023 that they can continue the war until 2026. since their economy cant handle the war after 2025. and as I have been saying since the war started in 2022, its all about the economy and while the Russians may artificially support the Russian economy it cant do it forever and the longer the war goes, the more damaged the Russian economy and after the war is over, the full effect of the war will be felt hard by the Russian people as the artificial supports for the Russian economy comes crashing down. and what the effects will be.... how about Hyperinflation, high cost of food prices, high unemployment, depressed economy. severe devaluation of the Russian currency wiping out savings, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans coming home to find out their savings in rubles have been wiped out due to hyperinflation, no jobs, and Russian gov not caring for them and even oppressing them more to maintain control. also due to a depressed hyperinflated Russian economy how about Putin in order to deal with large protests and public discontent tries to shift blame to oligarchs and elites blaming them for the failings of the war, and these elites havfe their own PMCs private military companies who are heavilly recruiting from the discredited Russian army and demobilized war veterans. ....all the recipes for a good ole RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR .
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  9731. the chinese yuan has always been controlled by the Chinese gov. its not a free currency and wonder why its been 1 USD = 7 Yuan since the 90s. its quite amusing when you have all these economists and youtubers saying the Yuan will replace the dollar , yah maybe if the Chinese economy GDP surpasses that of the USA, I dont see that happening anytime soon. In fact lately the Chinese economy is in trouble lots of unemployment and failed businesses in China and the Chinese gov are just covering everything up , Chinese economic statistics from the Chinese gov all doctored, and you have a Chinese leader called Xi Jinping or Putin wannabe 2.0 who is trying to be like Putin and challenge the west. but the Chinese economy is very much dependent on exports esp. to the west. who are its best customers. Putin and Xi Xinping are very much linked together politically, if one falls the other also falls, I dont see Xi Jinping getting a third term, in fact, he will probably before or after his term ends, just fall out of a window or in CHina die of natural causes while under house arrest. There is a lot of opposition from the Chinese elites in the CCP, the so called Red Families who control the CCP and China. and the real oligarchs of China. They dont like how Xi Jinping has steered the focus of the Chinese gov from economic development to military confrontation with their best customer...the USA. Xi Jinping wants war with Taiwan with similiar reasons to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Many of the Chinese PLA high command do not agree with Xi Jinping since they know they will lose the war with Taiwan and the USA. That is why you currently have a number of PLA generals suddenly getting replaced. Xi Jinping is trying to purge the PLA and replace the head guys of the PLA with yes men so he can get on with the invasion of Taiwan.
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  9736. my take Putin is kicked out after losing this war, a military junta gov takes over, but its hold on Russia is tenous due to not having a strong leader, also collapsed economy , anger at losing the war, gov not able to bring law and order over lar ge portions of Russian fed. economic hardship leads to unrest , massive Russian refugee crisis on neighbouring nations. US and her allies support the Moscow gov. since it wants a stable solid but weak and contrallable Moscow gov. but a weakened army, the Turks and Chinese former USSR states, also want the same thing. a military weak Russia, stable gov. and econony , while the neighbourhoring states do not want a massive Russian refugee crisis and a possible civil war spilling into their borders but they want a significantly weakened Russia so it does not create this kind of geopolitical problem. in the future. I think the Russian Fed will lose 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession, in the Caucasus , Central Asia , while the Russian Fed will still have the larget geography in the former USSR states, its greatly weakened. economically and militarilly. Ukraine in the meantime while devastated badly in the war, rebuilds rapidly with a massive hundreds of billions of USD marshal plan from the USA and EU. and their allies. Ukraine econimically booms during reconstruction recovery, while there is a lot of corruption gov reforms shakes out its USSR influence and models itself to EU countries. same with Belarus. looking towards EU intergratuon and NATO membership. the land of the former USSR becomes a great game of influence between USA/EU, Turkey/Saudi, and China. Ukraine, Belarus, Baltics, Armenia , Georgia would be firmly under USA EU influence, the Caucasus and parts of Central Asia would be untder Turkish influence and large parts of Central Asia and the far east under Chinese influence. Russia will flip flop mainly under USA/EU influence but also being heavilly influenced by the Turks and the CHinese. Russia will still retain strong pervasive gov corruption despite attempts to reform. Chaotic political situation in Russia, as the USA, Turks and Chinese EU, do not want another strong leader to emerge out of Russia, and encourages corruption there more or less to keep Russia weak. USA and EU wants a democratic European leaning Russia with a liberal leadership. the Chinese and Turks dont want that. The Chinese want a leader they can control and subordonate to Chinese power. Meanwile Russian political sitaution is chaotic with clashes between liberal, nationalist elements. and the Russian gov has to deal with secessionists with the Russian gov not being able to control the Russian military at times. Russia for the next 10-20 years would be more akin to a third world country in Europe ala Moldova.
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  9739. this video seems to assume the Russian military is competent enough to even go toe to toe with NATO, well seeing the Russian perfomance of 2 years of war in Ukraine, I think its safe to say, that the Russian military sucks bad, cannot even defeat Ukraine suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties trying to capture villages and towns. trying to expand the 20 percent of Ukraine it holds and mind you it sued to hold 40 percent of UKraine until the Ukrainians pushed recaptured 50 percent of what they lost in late 2022. Very embarassing for a Russian army that lauds itself as the 2nd strongest army in the world. In the next few years the so called self boasting 2nd strongest army in the world will probably be buying North Korean tanks and disguising them as Russian tanks hahaha. As of 2024, Russia is already buying North korean artillery and missles , and North korean weapons are known to be of poor and shoddy quality, and I remember before the war, Russia was laughing at the North Korean weapons, now the Russians are buying them...utter humiliation.... How about teh Russians fielding T-55s, and WW2 artillery , the last time the Russians fielded them was during the invaison of Czechoslovkia in 68. Heck its so bad the Russians are fielding T-55s that were used during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 hahahah. I dont think this is a sign of a victorious army or even a strengthening army. Russia will be a future military history study of how corruption, incompetence , combat doctrine, nepotism can destroy one of the strongest armies of the world. Yah the Russian army is like if you put Homer simpson in charge.
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  9759. they dont have the labour since the Central Asian former USSR country citizens of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Tajikistan etc. who make up the majority of the migrant labour market in Russia dont want to go to Russia since the ahole Russian gov will raid Russian businesses pick them up as illegal aliens then forcibly send them to Ukraine as cannon fodder. the word has gotten around and most of them left Russia back to their home countries, and the Russians are luring Africans Indians and other citizens of poor third world nations to go to Russia promised high paying jobs what they get are working for cheap in a Russian arms factory for women and the men become cannon fodder in Ukraine. and from what I hear , Russians are also hiring North Korean men to be both cannon fodder and factor workers but they dont come cheap and Kim has been asking for higher prices for them. So the Russians are talking with the Yemeni Houthis and Afghan Taliban to actually send Yemeni and Afghan men to the front or factory labour , and the local Russians well, they dont want to be sent to the front , the convict population is really low , and the convicts also dont want to go to Ukraine, and convict factory labour well not enough, and the Russian population is not enough to work in the arms factories. So there you go the Russians have sabotaged themselves, goes to show you the Russian gov arms are very much uncoordinated and feud amongst themselves and cause all these mess ups, very much like Putin, very short sighted, no long term planning, and when they do something, its very much clumsy ham fisted . Hey just like the Russian army and its performance in this war.
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  9835. Putin will dance Russia to ruin, the fun will begin when the war ends and Putin tries to rebuild the Russian economy first and the Russian military second. he will find the following: Hyperinflation, Western investments not coming back to Russia, western sanctions slow motion to be removed esp. the EU imposed ones. EU customers not coming back to buy Russian oil and gas , and Trump will enact his pump baby pump which will crash the world oil prices. all of these combined will seriously hinder Russia's attempts to rebuild his economy and military also it will cause widespread unrest in Russia esp. made worse from the several hundred thousand returning Russian war veterans who will face hyperinflation, the loss of value of their savings, high unemployment and a repressive corrupt Russian gov. and high food prices. yep this will all cause social and political unrest withi high crime rates and protests and disorder, all made worse by the support of Russian anti gov groups by USA and Ukraine. also high corruption also interferes with Putin attempts to rebuild his economy and military. I think Putin will respond by getting massively repressive , possible martial law , purges in the Russian military gov and oligarchy. However what will be a major opposition to Putin are not the Russian people but the Russian PMCs, many of which have been formed during the war and are private armies of Russian oligarchs and elites if Putin cracks down on them and tries to ban and disarm these private armies, there will be war....A RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR. I predict all this will happen within ten years after the end of the war. Russia will become Syria 2.0 which will a decade or more and result in Russia breaking up. The new great game will be Russia in ten years. with USA, China , Turkey , Ukraine all playing for influence on the factions in this war. You will have the largest failed state in the world, with millions of Russian refugees running away to the EU and beyond. As Russia collapses in a future civil war, this is how Ukraine will get back its lost territories and also influence the outcome of the civil war, not surprised if Ukraine directly intervenes in this civil war and even annexes former Russian federation territory as reparations. The fall of Russia into Civil war will be the largets Geopolitical event in the next decade with effect far surpassing that of the Ukraine war.
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  9857. well the longer the war goes, the more the Russian economy bleeds and with the coming worldwide recession depression will crash oil and gas prices and crumble the Russian economy will impact its war making capabilities, the Russian economy will simply be unable to the fund the war resulting in unrest food shortages etc. that will end the war. that is why I think the war will end by late 2023. Collapsing Russian economy leading to unrest , by that time, the Russians will probably have taken the donbass but bogged down trying to form a bridge to transnistria . The war is an expensive static in eastern and southern ukraine, becoming like the later stages of the iran iraq war. a war of attirtion with tanks and modern aircraft. However the Russian forces in Ukraine are in a poor shape using weapons from the 20th century(not surprised they are fielding T-55s). Putin and his inner circle is purged and a new gov takes over that declares a arministice ceasefire, meanwhile, Ukraine has enjoyed battlefield victories taking advantage of the sorry state of the Russian army and discruption of command and control due to the unrest in Russia. manages to take back huge porition of Ukraine. In the end , there is a negotiated peace for hte Russian army to withdraw completely back to Russia but still keep the Crimea. However the withdrawal is chaotic and the Russians practically abandon their troops in Ukraine who are forced to go back to Russia by themselves with no support. Crimea is later given back to Ukraine a few years later in exchange for the complete lifting of sanctions and economic aid. the burden on the Ruissian economy is simply very catastrophic with very bad sanctons which results in the Europeans mostly stop buying energy sources or even trading with teh RUssians , to a global recession depression which results in the collapse of the oil and gas prices whcih the Russian economy is reliant on along with the expense of running the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy simply has fallen apart resulting in a Russian revolution. and the decade of the 2020s will be historic for Russia as it will see Russia lose from 25 to 50 percent of its current territory to secession as multiple Russian republics declare independence due to political chaos and economic depression. and the Russian army mainly demobilizing as its economy collapses. and collapse in morale due to the defeat in the Ukraine war. Russia becomes a proxy battleground between USA and China. for its resources. By 2030 Russia still exists but 25 to 50 percent smaller with the secession of its repubclics in the Caucasus , Siberia and the Far East.
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  9866. I think Russia is being set up to be ground down by this war. which is a good thing. with a leader like Putin who seems to only want to hear what he wants to hear like to micromanage the war incompetently and has staked his regime survival to getting some sort of "victory" in the Ukr war. THe longer Russia stays and fights this war, the more it will be horrible for Russia economically militarilly and even socially. Even with a Russian "victory" which I think means the Russians keep whatever they have conquered in Ukraine. The economic and social trauma of the war where several hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties and in the state of the Russian economy I doubt it if the surviving Russian trooops will be fully paid and compensated by the Kremlin, this will cause social chaos and unrest back in Russia when you have hundreds of thousands maybe a millioin or so by the end of the war. coming back to Russia who are psychologically damaged, not paid or underpaid, angry at the kremlin gov. coming back to a Russia with no jobs facing economic collapse and depression, and if Russia lost the war, facing discrmination being blamed for losing the war. but they do bring back military skills how to kill , how to use military weapons, ....taking up the example of the crazy Russian 90s where Russia expereinced a bad wave of law lessness and unrest due to defeat in the 1st chechen war, fall of the USSR economic depression, and defeat in the Soviet afghan war. Well looking at the potential results of the Ukr war on Russia which is even significantly bigger than the Soviet Afghan war and 1st Chechen war. and the fact no help is coming to Russia from western foreign investors like in the 90s, Russia will experience an unrest not seen since perhaps 1917.
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  9870. Yep highly agree with Jason here, and as an extra I think Biden winning the 2024 USA elections will cause a massive political tsunami in the Kremlin and among Russian elites , basically Russian elites will surmise that the Russian economy cannot support the war for 4 more years and want to salvage it and with Putin in the way, they will get rid of him as soon as possible. and blame everything on him. In this scenario I think Putin gets removed from power in 2025 , probably something gets announced that he dies of natural causes. His successor blames everything on him, after a few months of negotiations. Russia withdraws from Ukraine and Crimea. in exchange for 1. lifting of all sanctions. 2. Unfreezing of all Russian assets in western banks. 3. no ICC arrest warrants for Russian leaders. 4. Normalized relations with the west. 5. formal peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine recognizing borders. in the aftermath of the war, the new post Putin Moscow gov will be unstable. as despite assistance from both the west and China, to keep the Russian economy stable. there is a massive tide of political and social instability due to the defeat in the war, also the fact that foreign investors are staying away from Russia due to instability. Despite Moscow's attempts at economic stability, Russia undergoes hyperinflation and there is high prices of essential as well as very high unemployment which leads to social unrest. also returning Russian veterans of the war leads to high crime rates . Russian PMCs become the real Russian military and security forces as teh Russian and police forces are seen to be as a joke due to high levels of uncontrolled corruption and desertions, and the Russian PMCs provide a source, a center of security stability as they are very organized, very effective at what they do backed up by Russian oligarch money. With a weak Moscow gov with weak military and police, Russian oligarchs run the show and its back to the 90s again. with the oligarchs manipulating Russian politicos as puppets as the Russian PMCs are practically the Russian military and police and the Russian economy is very much controlled by the oligarchs. While the Russian oligarchs are united in not allowing another Putin come to power again and prevent too much political and economic instability and create an environment of all of them making money, they are pretty much at odds with each other in terms of politics and how to run Russia which results in the country for a period of time experiencing the 90s all over again but a 90s on steroids. as political indecision grips the nation. I can see a number of Russian regions break away from Russia to form their own country like Chechnya and possibly even Dagestan but I think 90 percent of Russia will remain intact but Russian provinces will have more autonomy from the weak Moscow gov. and the Russian corporations backed by their PMCs will be a power unto themselves. I dont think they will engage in all out wars, but will be engaging in political economic battles and some turf wars but I think the Oligarchs will probably be cooperating with each other more or less. Meanwhile Ukraine gets trillions of USD of funding for reconstruction which booms the economy , shortly after the war is over Ukraine gets accepted into the EU and NATO. Pro Russia govs are kicked out in Belarus and Georgia, Moldova , Belarus , Georgia and Armenia begin serious application to NATO and the EU. within a decade Moldova and Georgia get accepted into NATO and EU. Armenia gets accepted into the EU. All of these are done without comment from Russia.
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  9878. for the US gov and establishment , the Ukraine war is very important to them in fact, I think its their top agenda since its the perfect opportunity to really weaken Russia and remove Putin from power and as I said before the US 2024 elections is crucial and determinate to the final outcome of this war which I think will end in 2025. Trump wins, he forces the Ukrs to a korean war style armistice with teh Russians, Ukrs will cut their losses and war ends in 2025. If Biden wins, Russian elites cut their losses and overthrows Putin in 2025, withdraws from Ukraine including crimea in return lifting of all sanctions, restorations of normal relations with the west and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine. Either way what happens, Russia will still be severely weakened and I think wont be a threat to their neighbours. Even if the Putin regime manages to survive, the Russian economy under massive economic sanctions, masses losses of the war, a dangerously militarized economy , minimal foreign investments, economic depression , Putin will not be able to rebuild his army to pre war levels, in fact, I htink Putin will not threaten his neighbours since he will focused on repairing his economy and regime survival. Simliar to Saddam Hussein and iraq after its defeat in Desert storm in 91 which severely weakened his army and economy, Saddam regime may have survived but Iraq was under massive sanctions but was not threatening to his neighbours until the fall of his regime in 2003, since Saddam was focused on internal problems and the survival of his regime, in fact, the Iraqi army was not expanded and rearmed since the economy was in depression and Saddam had no money to massively rearm his military after it was mauled by the US and its allies in 91. Same thing will happen to Russia post war even if the Putin regime survives.
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  9968. I dont think the Russian fed will collapse after it loses this war. I do however think Russia will undergo a period of chaos a few yeasr of power struggles , economic collapse , collapse of law and order, Russian ruble becoming worthless, even worth less than toilet paper. millions of Russian refugees streaming west, It wont look like a civil war, not quite, but I think what will come out of it, is back to the usual Russian system so faux democracy , but the twist will be is that the Oligarchs and their PMCs will control the country, the Russian gov and military will be weak and puppets of the oligarchs who will never allow a leader like putin to come to power again, they will make sure the Russian leader sitting in the Kremlin will be weak and controlled. Russian provinces and republics will have a bit more autonomy and even have their own PMCs. doing their own deals with foreign powers while swearing fealty to Moscow. Russia becomes a decentralized state , the biggest narco state in the world where anything can happen. Not surprised if they keep the Russian ruble but everyone transacts in USD, Euro , UK Pounds, Crypto. Chinese Yuan. Yep the 90s will come back to Russia but this time on steroids and last for decades. Russia wont be threatening its neighbours for several decades, it will be very much inward focused on resolving its own internal problems and ignore everyone else. However Russia will become a great game battleground of influence between China and USA(along with other more minor foreign actors). For its resources and strategic location.
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  9973. I think Ukraine will fight on , and the peace deals will be a failure, of course Trump will say well we negotiated a peace deal without the Ukrainians....more like a peace deal for the USA to withdraw from the war, lift all the sanctions on Russia from the US side and unfreeze like 50 billion USD worth of Russian assets held in US banks. Not surprised if Trump does his bullshit stupid tariffs on the EU and her allies. and demands they stop aiding Ukraine. I think the EU and Canada will come together balk at the Americans, cut parts of their welfare spending , significantly raise military spending the arms production, increase sanctions on Russia and significantly increase military and economic support for Ukraine. Ukraine will be defiant to the USA with EU and Canadian backing. EU gives the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine 300 billion USD of it. All restrictions are removed from weapons use on Russia to Ukraine. from the Europeans, even UK and French troops are deployed in Ukraine. Meanwhile USA while not quitting from NATO minimizes its support for it, Trump even makes statements that USA will not intervene if Russia invades NATO countries, this causes the rest of NATO esp. the EU nations to rearm and raise spending on their mlitaries and arms production which is being given to Ukraine. The Russian may think that they have gotten a massive boon with a Trump admin getting out of Ukraine and being on its side. However this has awakened the EU and Canada from its slumber get together and confront the Russian threat. with a rapid mobilization of their economies and industries. Even with USA minimizing its commitments to NATO the rest of NATO steps up and even the Russians do not attack NATO , they still threaten but its nothing, Russia knows that war with NATO even without USA support will end in NATO victory and disaster for Russia. and now French and British troops are in Ukraine and the EU and Canada have massively raised their commitments to Ukraine. the EU now views Russia as an existential threat. and have now taken steps to deal with Russia. USA meanwhile focuses on domestic issues and the Pacific vs. China. Russia, and Ukraine the war rumbles on. however this time, with increased EU UK Canadian allied support Ukraine hits the Russians even more focusing on destroying its oil infrastructure and economy. while also resisting Russian offensives, trading land but inflcting massive casualties on the attacking Russians. yes the Russians were given a big respite economically with the lifting of American sanctions and unfreezing of Russian assets in US banks. however the Ukrainians were also given a big boon with massively increaed military and economic aid, French and British troops in Ukraine. Also the USA does its drill baby drill oil policy, a crash in oil prices hits the Russian economy hard, I think war ends in 2028 with a Russian civil war where the Russian economy collapses. triggered by some event maybe the death of Putin or the massacre of protesters who knows. USA is also in chaos with a USA economy in recession, a demo controlled house and senate opposing Trump decrees , massive anti Trump protests in hte US cities. So the new world order post Ukraine war 2022 to 2028 will be will see the downfall of two great powers Russia and the USA. Russia in civil war, USA in a constitutional crisis and a deep recession. not seen since 2008 or the covid crisis of 2020. with massive anti gov protests in American cities. not seen since the BLM riots. with the EU and China ascendant watching and profiting on the background. I think Canada while not becoming a member of the EU is given associate status, will strong free trade deals with the EU. and close military, economic and political relations as Canada seeks to decouple from the USA. While I dont think there will be a civil war, the USA has been economically and politically wounded by the Trump admin, the dems win the 2028 elections and also sweep the house and senate. then the new demo gov rapidly seeks to renew close ties with the rest of the west which was cut during the trump admin. USA is still the strongst economy and military in the world.
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  9985. yah after teh war the RUssian economy will be in near collapse for several years . in fact Russian economic recovery post war will be made worse by foreign investors shunning Russia like it had the bubonic plague. THe Russian gov will msot likely be reliant on foreign aid from USA EU China India to survive. in fact that is when Chinese will swoop in and start taking over Russian corporations and Chinese companies. start coming in and buying Russian companies , taking over resources at bargain basement prices. funding local warlords and oligarchs trying to debt control the Russian gov and economy. Russia will be the wild west all over again a new great game of influence, political and economic control will be fought over Russia between USA, EU, China, Turkey, for control of its resources and Russia is a very useful gateway to Europe and central asia. Also not surprised if Russia becomes the most massive narco state in teh world , since with the collapse of law and order and law and order in the hands of oligarchs, criminals , regilnal govs. it will be easy for criminal groups worldwide and locally to use Russia as a base for their activities. Heck not even surprised the situation in Russia might be so bad, that the UN might come in and intervene, or the Russian currency dollarizes. I dont thnk Russia will collapse in fact I think the Russian federation will survive mostly intact, but it will become a bit more decentralized state with the real power being in the hands of the oligarchs and regional govs. and their PMCs. and the Moscow gov and Russian military being very weak and puppets of the oligarchs.
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  10018. ep and that clip of those buryat troops arguing with their chechen handlers about weapons and ammo shortages, this is a very good example of what happens when you throw massive amounts of troops in the fight more than your logistics can handle, and that is a very good reason why these troops are dying in massive numbers , its turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. a target rich environment of poor trained, armed and low morale no motivation Russian troops, there were fears and scares of 500K Russian troops being sent to the front, yah massive numbers but remember those troops need to be fed, trained supplied, armed, in order to fight properly otherwise they turn into a mob that is only good as a bullet absorbers. and the Ukrainians has LOTs of bullets. and Russians logistics is chaotic , and being heavilly disrupted by HIMARs strikes. Russian logistics can be argued to be worse now than they invaded in Feb 2022. Russia may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but if they cant reach the Russian troops in the front due to poor logistics then those weapons are useless. not surprised the Ukrs to Russian kill ratio in the Donbass battles these days in like 5 to 10 Russian soldier for every one Ukrainian soldier casualtiy. also count Russian conscrupts and convicts are being forced to attack dug in , fortified Ukrainian positions many times in high ground positions, with claymore mines, minefields, fields of fire in relatively open ground. attacking mainly in the day since these convicts and conscrupts do not have night vision gear. this is a MASSACRE. that is why its takes a week to dislodge Ukrainian positions. Even with the Russians doing incremental attacks like advancing then digging in then doing it again later going from fire position to fire positions, the Ukrainains just rain accurate artillery fire on them. Worse later if the Ukrs get cluster munititions for theiir missles and artillery,
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  10049. so I think 2024 will be a very pivotal year to the war as the USA presidential elections are coming and Putin wants to influence the USA elections to get a pro peace USA president in the white house in order for the USA to pressure Ukraine to end the war in a armistice where Russia retains a substantial amount of Ukr territory. I think the Russians will try to scare the USA voters into voting a Pro Peace USA pres. in 2024, and Russia will do this by escalating the war in Ukraine which includes: 1. the use of chemical weapons in the battlefield. 2. possible nuke weapon testing in the black sea near the Ukr coasts. 3. moving nuke weapons around in a procative manner. 4. targetting Ukr supply lines close to NATO borders. 5. Possible military clashes between RUssian and NATO troops along the borders. Putin wants to amp up a possible WW3 scare to near WW3 levels short of a war to scare American voters possibly crash the USA economy by crashing the stock markets. and getting someone like DOnald Trump elected to the white house. If someone like Donald Trump is elected in 2024, the war will probably end in 2025 with an armistice where Russia keeps its winnings. If Biden is reelected , the war might continue into 2026 or longer as Putin gets even more desperate, clamps down more on dissent, uses more chemical weapons in order to cause enough Ukrainian casualties so the Ukranians will to fight collapses, of course this results in worldwide condemnation and total sanctions on Russia(like no trade, sequestration of all Russian assets worldwide including the oligarchs Russian gov officials putting them on the interpol arrest list and pressuring other countries to follow the same sanctions) along with massive increased miltiary and financial aid to UkraIne and NATO gearing up for a possible war witjh Russia. The mass use of chemical weapons by the Russians is Putins only option short of using nukes which is crossing the line into WW3 and cause open dissent among the Russian military and his own gov. Even if Russia manages to get an armistice from the ukrs Russia will effectively be a NOrth Korea style pariah state with a collapsed economy. and still at war with a very angry Ukraine that is rapidly rebuilding its infranstructure and military with massive USA and EU allied funding. finding it difficult to rebuild and pacify its conquered areas. along with his hold on power much weakened as while the war is spun as a victory, it is really perceived as a defeat by many in Russia, esp. the oligarchs and gov officials who lost much of their assets due to the sanctons and sequestrations. Also many PMCs were formed during the war and Putin is finding it difficult to control these, due to the collapsed Russian economy, Russian troops in Ukraine most are not paid and told to stay on occupying Ukraine. in the face of continuing partisan attacks, If Putin dies, his hold on power seriously disrupted or is removed from power , Russia will probably go into civil war and that is how Ukraine will get back all of its lost territories.
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  10076. this is my view, no WW3, Putin dies or is purged, more moderate Russian gov. oligarch led takes over. blames putin and a bunch of his inner circle for all the problems, withdraws Russian army back to Pre war starting pts. in exchange for most of the sanctions to be removed back to business as usual. War ends in fall to winter of this year or 2023. They purge him since Putin orders nuke strikes on Ukr which is not followed the Russian military, FSB , Oligarchs unite to purge Putin since he is getting more crazy. The war has ruined Russia, economically , politically and its prestige is in tatters. those thousand of Russian war veterans who are psycholigically damaged, angry return to a depressed Russia, massive unemployment , political chaos, this leads to high crime rates, possible Russian civil war revolution. law and order is collapsing in Russia. USA and China economically and politically take advantage. with the USA supporting Pro western Democratic groups and the Chinese supporting more nationalistic and even seperatist Russian groups. Chinese goal control Russian and Central Asian natural resources through proxies. American goal to deny Chinese goals and support a democratic stable Russia. Russian army downsizes Ukraine gets back crimea and Russia totally withdraws from Ukraine. (in excchange for economic aid and end to all sactions), Russia also withdraws from Moldova, Armenia and Georgia. Chechnya declares independence and declares an emirate of the Caucasus. with the support of CHina. and Iran. Belarus gets an independent gov. Ukraine joins the EU. The Russian so called civil war balkanizes Russia. and Russia still exists as a country with the Russian gov. excercising control over the Western part of Russia but control is shaky to non existent east of the Ural mountains, Siberia, Russian far east, Caucasus. where a bunch of Russian republics declare independence or nationalist groups have taken over with warlords and private armies. With a situation similiar to libya where its not a decalred civil war but its a civil war with some armed conflict. Since many of the belligerents have nukes. China encourages this and gains cheap natural resources. along with cheap labor and strong influence on Central Asian countries. So now business as usual except that Russia has fallen badly and China is now the only strong rival to the USA. China studies the Ukraine war hard. starts to reform its armed forces. The fall of Russia has made Russia Central Asia the Caucasus as the new great game between USA and its allies, & China and its allies. in a fight for resources. Putin has left Russia in even in a worse state than when he took over. His legacy is shit.
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  10112. The Russians are trying but Ukr attacks on Russian logistics and command and control have been so effective taht the Russians have not gained much ground and lost an est. 10K men so far in a few months attacking in Bakhmut. essentially the Russians are trying to lure in and inflict massive losses on the Ukrs in a attritional WW1 style battle with the Russians thinking we will just drown them in massive air and artillery bombardments and Russian bodies just like that Donbass strategy in summer of 2022 hoiwever the Ukrs are not playing that game, since theh Ukr army is actually stronger and better equipped better trained than in Summer of 2022. the Ukrs hitting logsitical and command and control hubs in the Donbass has resulted in very poor performance for the Russians in the DOnbass lately that Russian attacks run out of steam due to ammo shortages and resolute Ukrs defense behind fortified lines. along with Ukrs counterattacks. yes the Russians have the manpower but these consists mainly of poorly motivated and poorly traiined conscripts and penal troops, yes the Russians have their so called elite troops in Bakhmut llike the Wagner core , Chechens, VDV Spetsnaz but these guys are usually behind the mass or poorly trained and motivated Russian troops being sent to attack like it was WW1 Somme. and due to ammo shortages, Russian artillery is not really able to make much of a difference also Russian air support is not really there as the Ukrs have strong SAM support in the area plus Russian pilots like to spray and pray from a distance like firing all your weapons at a stand off long distance with unguided weapons hoping you hit something. Russian artillery is also the same fire as much as you can saturate the area like it was WW1. Attacks on Russian logistics and the Russian penchant for spraying and praying has resulted in very bad ammo shortages. I can see the Russians getting defeat this coming winter iin Bakhmut , the coldest temp bakhmut had was minus 15 C. and if it gets that way hahah, it will be disastrous for the Russian army, which has winter clothing shortages while the Ukrs forces are well equppped for winter warfare. I wonder what will happen to Putin if the Russians suffer a major defeat at Bakhmut....
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  10134. My view is that the Russian economy will be kept artificially alive throughout the war, however the real clincher will come after the war, the moment Russia loses the war, Putin is removed from power, the Russian economy will crash hard, I can see 1 USD = 1K Rubles within a month of the defeat. and as the post war turmoil goes, the Russian economy will keep on falling probably stabilized when the sanctions are lifted and trade with the west goes back to normal, heck Im not surprised if the USA actually gives financial aid to the new Russian gov. just to keep Moscow afloat. If Putin wins, you will see the Russian economy dangerously in a war footing with the country still isolated, with sanctions in place, and bad relations with the west, and very low western investments in the country and a very high debt. well I can see the Russian economy continually sliding , also the high cost of pacifying its conquered Ukrainian territories and rebuilding its infrastructure also adds to the economic headache Russia will endure. Also add that thousands of Russian war veterans many will probably not be paid, these guys will become criminals to feed their families. Also supporting a strong military to keep control of its occupied Ukr terrtiories and maintaing order in Russia is a massive drain on the Russian economy and the Russian economy may not be able to maintain a strong Russia army, After its very bruising Ukraine expreience, I dont expect Russia do be a threat to anyone esp. ukraine in the near future. Russia's economy will be so shit , he can barely maintain the military he has after the war is over, expect social unrest economic depression with no hope in sight. after a Russian victory. Putin will be removed from power but it might take a decade of him doing so and Russia becomes like Stalin's Russia or Saddam's Iraq.and I think after putin is gone, Russia will undergoe a very bloody civil war. So i think the consequences for Russia is greater is Russia wins this war, as opposed to losing it. The longer that Putin is in power, the worse it will be for Rusisa.
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  10175. PMCs can be effective when you are fighting a civil war , since local commanders would be given wide leeway in commanding their local forces like private armies to fight local insurgencies, when the central gov. is incompetent with a poor command structure. where it takes a long time to approve a command. However when fighting a major war between nations like vs. Ukraine. having a broken up decentralized command and your are attacking is very very bad. since this means no to poor coordination between commanders, logistics is very much bad since commanders will be fighitng over it. A historical example would be the Taiping rebellion and the Second Sino Japanese war. In the Taiping rebellion, the Qing dynasty was forced to give independence to local commanders and governors to form their own private armies to fight the Taipings locally since the Qing dynasty imperial army was corrupt ineffecient incompetent with a very poor command structure where it can take weeks for orders to arrive from the capital say to armies in the field. where a local commander can respond very quick to rebel forces. Now in the 2nd Sino Japanese war, the KMT Chinese armies were very much decentalized, about 50 to 75 percent of the CHinese KMT armies fighting the Japanese were made up of Chinese warlord private armies who very much resented the leader of the KMT Chiang Kai Shek, and they viewed their private armies equated to political power within the KMT , so Chiang Kai Shek had to negotiate with Chinese warlords in order to fight the Japanese and many a time, these guys would just retreat when they took substantial losses. In the case of the current Ukraine war. this decentralization of the Russian army is very bad, this was already very bad at the start of hte war where you had Russian armies each with their own independent com,mand and did not really coordinate with each other failing badly in the war, yes they conquered 40 percent of Ukraine in the first months of the war but this was vs. a surprised un mobilized poorly coordinated Ukrainian military, but once the Ukr gov got the blows and got to its senses mobilized, then struck back in well coordinated fashion along with fierce local resistance , which I should say was much decentralized , it bogged down the Russians badly, stopped the Russians in their tracks and turned them back in the North. and as the Ukrainian army got better equipped trained, better coordinated and led, the Russians got into trouble. While yes politically this may be good for Putin to keep his underlings from outshining him it will be bad for proseucuting this war vs. a well coordinated, well armed, well led Ukrainian military.
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  10262. what is next Russia will be trying to conquer all of the Donbass in 2023 I believe if that happens Putin will declare victory but the Ukrainians will refuse and the war will go on. I expect another round of mobilization mid this year. as the Russians continue to lose massive amounts of men in ww1 style frontal atttacks. I also expect a surprise Ukrainian counterattack which inflict a major defeat on the Russians. I think 2023 will be a back and forth between Ukraine and Russsia still a stalemate, USA will probably approve fighter jets and ATACMS in 2023. , however I do think 2024 will be a pivotal war year with the Russians trying their best to influence the US 2024 presidential elections. 2024 the Russians will escalate with the use of chemicals weapons and due even more nuke sabre rattling to scare the US stock markets into crashing hard and inducing a recession 2024. with the aim of having the rep party candidate win the elections so the USA aid to Ukraine will be significantly reduced and putin can "win" the war with a favourable negotiation where he keeps like 25 percen tof Ukraine and do regime survival. My view either way this war goes, Putin will not last long after the war is over. "winning" this war just delays the inevetible for Putin snce his political position is very much weakened due to teh war Losing this war means Putin going will be fast . Either way it will be bad for Russia, Russia will slide into civl war after this war is over. Russia will be like China in the 1920s without a central gov and ruled by warlords
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