Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Ukraine: how winter could change the war - expert explains" video.

  1. Post war, the new military junta in the Russian gov solidifies its power, blames everything on Putin. starts negotiations with the west to normalizing relations and economic aid as Russia is bankrupt. the economy in ruins, and unrest is growing. Russia has just lost a major war with 200K casualties thousands of expensive tanks aircraft equipment lost. its prestige in tatters. an all time low. and many soldiers are asking for their pay which the Russian gov which is bankrupt cant fullfill and this has resulted in mutinies and unrest. esp. in the Russian border areas to Ukraine. Russians have also withdrawn from Belarus. and protests are restarted there the Belarus military is not suppressing the unrest and Lukashenko has fled the country. New democratic gov. in Minsk. takes over with Belarus military support. After tense negotiations, in return for the Russians totally withdrawing form Ukraine including Crimea and the Donbass puppet states. There will be a formal peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia with teh proviso of NATO coming to Ukraine's aid if invaded. also there will not be any Russian opposition if Ukraine joins the EU and NATO. and all war crimes will not be pursued against Russia, the Russian gov. will prosecute their own war criminals, and all sacntions will be removed, pre war diplomatic economic relations between NATO EU and Russia will be restored and substantial economic aid be given to RUssia. Despite all this, most western investors do not go back to Russia, and there is a lot of unrest esp. in Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia go thru a decade long period of unrest which sees Russia losing 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession. Also China masively invests in Russia whcih results in the west while distasteful also give a lot of economic aid and investment into Russia. to keep the Moscow gov on side. Ukraine on the other hand receives hundreds of billions of USD of economc aid in a massive marshal plan to rebuild the country.
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  2. Ukraine will win this war not by defeating the Russians in the battlefield but by outlasting Russia political will to fight this war, I think Putin's winter strategy will fail, when this happens, by March 2023, his next strategy is to cause as much Ukrainian losses on the battlefield that the Ukrs will agree to peace terms, so Putin will start using WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons. Putin has his back to the wall, with a slowly collapsing economy Putin wants to force the Ukrs to peace terms on Russia's favour ASAP. so Putin's regime will survive. Putin knows he cant keep on mobilizing, and he cant be in a long war since the Russian economy cant support the war esp. under sanctions and the oil prices will be dropping due to a looming worldwide recession. Once the oil prices drop to below 50 USD , the Russian economy simply cannot support a major war. The use of chemical weapons will outrage the west and invite total sanctions on the Russians, when dead Ukr children dead of Nerve gas are shown on social media, there will be great ourrage and call for total economic sanctions on the Russians which include no trade from the 1st world nations and their allies, confiscation of all Russian assets in sanctioning countries, and sanctions on any nation still trading with Russia. Also a bit higher aid is sent to Ukraine. along wtih ATACMs, western tanks, jets. Ukrs in revenge start hitting Russian territory more with drones and missles. by mid 2023 Putin strategy has failed , his support is rapidly waning , his economy rapidly collapsing, so he plays his last card to birng the Ukrs to the peace on his terms and Putin will use multiple tactical nukes in hte battlefield. I think when he orders its use , by this time his back is really to the wall, and he thinks in his mind, the west wont do anything if he uses nukes in Ukraine. despite threats from the USA. In this case I think the Russian mlitary wont obey the use of tac nukes in Ukraine and have Putin arrested and deposed. New Russian gov takes over which is probably a Russian military junta. The new Russian gov realizes there is no way to win the war. and using nukes invites war with NATO, The new Russian gov. ends the war in Ukraine. and after negotiations orders the withdrawal to the Pre invasion borders of 2022. in exchange most sanctions are lifted relations are restored with the west, the war is blamed on Putin and his buddies, who either are arrested, dead or escaped to another country. The withdrawal to pre war borders is more or less orderly. war is over.
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