Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Russian Economy - US Dollars Compared to Russian Dollars Spent on Geopolitics" video.

well in context, the Russians during the years leading up to the 1917 revolution also lived a lower living standard than their European counterparts at the time. Took them 3 years of war and a decade of humiliation(since their defeat in the 1904-1905 Russo Japanese war) and food shortages and a collapsing economy and ongoing corruption and incompetence from the Czarist gov to break them and make them go into revolution mode. The same will happen with Putin's Russia, lots of parallels with Putin's Russia , and Czar Nicholas II Russia. .
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well in context, the Russians during the years leading up to the 1917 revolution also lived a lower living standard than their European counterparts at the time. Took them 3 years of war and a decade of humiliation(since their defeat in the 1904-1905 Russo Japanese war) and food shortages and a collapsing economy and ongoing corruption and incompetence from the Czarist gov to break them and make them go into revolution mode. The same will happen with Putin's Russia, lots of parallels with Putin's Russia , and Czar Nicholas II Russia. .
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as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change. I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine. In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc. The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse. Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline. Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse. Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956. Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks. All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them. Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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@EconLessons Yep its that bad, even in the cold war 70s and 80s, the T-55 was designated as a Soviet donation tank to their third world clients , in the Soviet army it was kept in storage to be given only to Soviet Category C units, those are the units which are only mobilized in desperation when the front line Category A and B units are badly depleted or destroyed. So the Russians fielding the T-55 is an act of desperation. I think they would have fielded the T-34 but the Soviets and Russians scrapped them all or sent them to their clients in the cold war. The ones they bring out during every may day parades were actually imported from Vietnam!!!!
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