Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "What to expect from a Russian summer offensive?" video.

  1. Now the question is what will be the Russian strategy after Biden wins in 2024. and massive USA aid incomping for the Ukrainians. I think the Russians will probably launch a bunch of offensives to take as much ground in 2025 then dig in like their strategy in 2023, and fortify heavilly .
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  2. well they tried to push from the south in Vulhedar in Feb 2023, well it was a disaster with the Russian 11th Marine brigade kaput. with 1K dead a hundred of so APCs and dozens of tanks destroyed. with minimal Ukrainian losses. Follow up attacks resulted in much the same. So pushing from the south is really a bad deal with places like Vulhedar being too tough a nut to crack. And yes also the Russian logistical situation in southern Russia is not good so its questionable if they can sustain such attacks other than it being feints to distract the Ukrainians from the main attack which is the Donbass.
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  3. yah this war really reminds me of the Iran Iraq war in the 80s. very slow grinding attritional WW1 type warfare with lots modern day combat jets, missles and tanks.
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  4. and also mobilizing more Russian troops carries with it political dangers from the Russian citizenry. that is why Putin has really been hesistant in doing so.
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  5. From what I hear , in the front, the Russians are using massive artillery barrages and lots of glided bomb attacks on hte Ukrainian lines. done in order to destroy Ukrainian defenses. soften it up before the main attacks , however many of these bombs and artillery attacks are inaccurate and miss their targets, and the Ukrainians are spread out and not concentrated further minimizing Ukrainian casualties that is why Russian attacks are repelled with heavy Russian casualties. The Ukrainians are still being pushed back and the Russians advancing true but with very heavy casualties. and advancing slowly at that. Ukrainians also counterattack whenever they can. So its not a full Russian advance but more like see saw battles. Also it seems that while the Russians can actually cause a breakthru they cannot exploit it like Avdiivka where the Ukrainian mostly withdrew in order but the Russians had the opportunity to exploit this defeat breaktrhru will follow up units. but nope seems like the Russians dont have much reserves. to exploit holes in Ukrainian lines since they have lost a LOT of men. That is why the Russians are mobilizing another 300K more men. Ukrainian strategy for 2024, hold mobile defense and trade space for time at the same time inflicting as much damage on the Russians. The Russians can take massive losses but its not forever that they can do this. This war is not a existential war, the Ukrainians did not invade Russia. So the Russians dont have their backs to the wall. like in WW2 however the one who has his back to the wall is Putin. The Russian people dont have their existence staked on the war. and eventually the Russian public will break and be sick and tired of this war esp. when the Russian army in Ukraine start experiencing major defeats while the Russians keep on mobilizing hundreds of thousands of unwilling recruits and losing hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in battles with the Ukrainians. Coupled with economic depression, Hyperinflation , rising food prices yep you have the recipe of the Russian people finally overthrowing Putin. However this will take years down the road.
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  6. well the Russians are generating recruits from various sources, besides local Russian civilian conscripts, the Russians have been throwing convicts, arrested migrants from Central Asia, along with volunteers from the third world with nepal, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, parts of Africa, Syria, Central Asia, being prominent. Also a few African states are sending their convicts to fight in Ukraine. However the Russians seem to be mobilizing their local citizenry lately more directly mostly from Central Asia and the Russian far east. Also the Russians are closing down their prisons, due to lack of prisoners since many have been sent to Ukraine, also the third world foreign volunters while many are not enough. (last estimate I heard they recruited around 50K from various third world countries). The Russians directly mobilizing their citizenry with a target of 300K men by June, 2024 is a sign that the Russians are preparing for a major offensive and filling up their reserves. As I said earlier you need a lot of ready reserves of troops to exploit holes you tear in the Ukrainian front lines.if You dont have them, well the Ukrainians can simply recover fast enough to form new defensive lines.
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