Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

  1. The motives for this offensive in my opinion is Garasimov trying to fend off allegations of his criminal incompetence by other Russian generals, Garasimov has been criticized for being criminally incompetent and constantly micromanaging and meddling into the work of other generals, he is also considered to be a politicking ahole who likes to bully his subordonates and likes to fire any Russian officer who crosses him or threatens his position real or perceived whether they are competent or not. So the Avdiivka offensive is his baby and he wants to prove to the Russian leadership and other Russian generals that he is competent. and has the balls and knowhow to successful lead and plan a campign. I would compare Garasimov to the suckhead Soviet generals Buddyonny and Pavlov. he is that bad. and Garasimov is still in power due to his close friendship with Shoigu and Putin. Also what hurt Garasimov's prestige was his political fights with Prigozhin and Igor Girkin with the latter two having a strong following among Russian military bloggers, nationalists and Russian officers along with the dismissal of Major General Vladimir Selivyorstov commander of 106th airborne division, (who was later reinstated after loud calls from various poltiical factions) which was caused by his political fights and criticisms of General Garasimov.
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  2. The war is definitely a drain of Russia to the tune of 1 billion USD a day. Ukraine is not Chechnya Afghanistan, Syria, where the Russians spent a lot lower to sustain their war efort per day since in thoise wars they were fighting poorly armed insurgents, in Ukraine they are fighting a tough strong conventional army armed with the latest NATO weapons. The war in Ukraine is definitely not sustainable. esp. as the 1st world is putting the screws on the Russian economy and tightening it. The Ukrainian army is getting stronger due to Ukr recruits getting trained properly to do operational offensives and getting better armed with NATO weapons while the Russians are getting weaker with massive equpment manpower losses, economy going down more, along with more sanctions and recruits with lower morale and training. This war is simply not sustainable for Russia the longer the war goes. and Putin and the Russian command simply does not know how to end the war where their current Russian regime will politicallly survive. Moscow can walk away from this war, total withdrawal back to pre war borders in return for a return of status quo relations with the west but this will have massive political implication which can get Putin removed from power permanently. But knowing Putin's pyschology, he is a tough fighter and will fight on until either he dies or he wins or in his mind he won while not achieving his original goal silver and bronze medals stiil OK. The longer the war goes the worst will be the post war effects on Russia. and can throw Russia into civil war. when Putin goes and there is no strong leader to take over or there is political chaos in Moscow as well as economic collapse which is the worst case outcome for Russia in this war.
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  3. well think of the smartphone as a mini computer with communication abilities and can do many things with apps . The current smartphones have memory on multiple orders of magnitude greater than the computer which launched the apollo space missions of the 60s and 70s and the space shuttle onboard computers up until the 2010s and they have massive storage capacities.. and is greatly portable. so the smartphone acts as a very portable battle management computer and communications device and has a very versatile massive amplication to warfare as shown by the Ukraine war and this was much innovated by the Ukrainians. so what are its uses on the battlefied: 1. control drones 2. direct artillery accurately and rapidly including linking with drones and local troops to desginate and hit targets in a accurate and fast way 3. battlefield recon 4. communicate on the battlefield 5. Coordination of troops on the battlefield 6. provide for impromptu avionics for combat vehicles
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  4. Ukrainians are very flexible and advanced in this regard, they adapt this tech out of the box in the battlefield, the Russians on the other hand are slow to do it due to their command and control rigid, and the Russian army general policy to ban phones for their soldiers on hte battlefiled. since the Ukrs are able to detect cellphone signals from the Russians and direct artillery and drones to them
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  5. two reasons in my opinion: 1. Distraction, force the Ukrs to deploy forces from other areas 2. to create a buffer area to prevent attacks into Russia esp. the Belgorod area.
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  6. A big part of Ukraine surviving is how incompetent is the Russian military and civilian leadership. How embarassing. I mean like if Ukraine who has no navy is able to sink several Russian ships including their flagship cruiser, then you know its time to quit the war.
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  7. yep not only are the Russian personel on the Ukrainain front lines are now rotating but they are also not being paid properly. Yep, you have foreign volunteers who have been recruited with promises of high pay from poor third world nations like Cuba , Nepal , Sub saharan Africa, etc. These guys are also promised that they wont be sent to the front line but they are going to be posted behind the lines guarding logistics, however in reality when they get to Ukraine, they are put on the front line as expendable meat and if they refused and want to go back, they cant, they get punished by the Russians. and abused. and when they are killed they are listed as missing in action, and families not paid. many of them have been kaput and become fertllizer in Ukraine, already 8 Nepalese gurkhas have been killed in Ukraine, yep the Ukraine war is so bad and brutal it eats even the famed Gurkhas for breakfast.
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  8. well this is the perils of hubris. Russians think the Ukrs cant touch them well they were very wrong.
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  9.  @arturobianco848  yah unfortunately that quantitiy is being rapidly wasted away yah quantity may have a quality of its own, however if the quality really sucks, then quantity is useless.
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  10. Russia's best shot was the first weeks of the war. after that Russian army has been degrading badly. Now the Russian army is in about a simliar level to the Saddam Iraqi army of the 90s and 2000s, its that embarassing and stupid in the Russian army.
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  11. yah like the Russian air force is supposed to be the 2nd largest and most powerful int he world behind the USA, and they are nowhere to be seen in Izyum and elsewhere haha, from what I read, Russian planes stay away due to : 1. afraid of Ukr air defenses. 2. many planes worn out due to overuse and lack of spare parts due to bad corruption. 3. poor maintenance, too few maintenance crews, overworked and too much vodka . 3. Poor discipline. 4. infighting among the Russian armed forces branches. , Russian army and air force dont really coordinate.
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  12.  @ailinofaolin8897  More Russian troll funny propoganda, you people really amuse me hahaah
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  13.  @dpelpal  yes it is quite funny, also funny is how the Russians lost 450 tanks at Izium in Oct 2022 According to Igor Girkin the worst lost of tanks since Kursk 1943 was not lost in combat but all abandoned as the remannts of the Russian 1st guards tank army ran away using stolen cars and bicycles to go back to Russia haha.
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  14. He cant and wont accept defeat, that is his psychology. SO the only way the war ends if he dies or gets kicked out of power.
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  15. the war may not stop but the more the war goes, the more it will be worse for Russia in the end, Russia may win this war, by keeping its current winnings, however it will be a pyrrhic victory with the Russian economy kaput, lots of Private armies, unpaid regular soldiers and a depressed Russian economy that still has very bad sanctions put on it, this is a recipe for a civil war. after the war is over.
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  16. simple blow up dam flood Southern Ukraine area so much so make it impossible for both sides to cross the river so it makes Russian defences easier to manage.
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  17. if Surovikin fails, the shit hits the fan, I can see Russian using chemical weapons on a mass scale.
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  18. yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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  19. yep plus if the Ukrainians manage to bag the Russian group of forces consisting of around 50K men and several hundred tanks North of Kharkiv and the capture of Belgorod that will be a massive political disaster for Putin and might see a second round of mobilization. and generate more opposition in the Russian public to Putin and the war. They already had riots in Dagestan when they tried to force mobilize the population there.
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  20. and even if the Putin regime survives this war, this war is disastrous for the Russian economy and Russian prestige, something which can take decades to recover from. Putins legacy is now kaput, he will be known in history as a foolish Russian leader and this war will define his legacy. in fact everything else he did will be forgotten and undone due to this war. and threatens to push Russia into failed state status after the war.
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  21. Now the question is what will be the Russian strategy after Biden wins in 2024. and massive USA aid incomping for the Ukrainians. I think the Russians will probably launch a bunch of offensives to take as much ground in 2025 then dig in like their strategy in 2023, and fortify heavilly .
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  22. well im not surprised that they had the resources to do it, since the Russians have been micro mobilizations a lot , while not doing a massive general mobilizaton, these micro mobilizatons are very much underhanded recruiting from state factory workers, prisons, foreign migrants workers, refugees, , Russian ethnic republics, even foreign recruitment from all over the world being promised high wages. (Cuba and Nepal have been mentioned in the news but I think that is only the tip of the ice berg). Also the Russians still have thousands of tanks and APCs in their stocks. Yah while the Russians still have a lot of resources, their logistics suck, along with their leadership coordination poor morale and training are still there, while their coordination and logistics has somewhat improved their Soviet style combat doctrine still remains the same. Yah while they have a lot of resources and manpower to throw at the Ukrainians , their logistical situation is still quite bad, since the Ukrainians are targetting their supply trucks and trains and logistic depots so while the Russians can do big offensives they cnat sustain them for long and they fall apart due to lack of fuel and ammo. Also the RUssian logistics is reliant on trains and the front lines in the east are far from rail heads and the Russians need to transport supplies from their rail heads via trucks and the Russians have a truck shortage since the Ukrainians are targetting them a lot(not to mention the fake Chinese truck tires on Russian trucks), the Russians have gotten so desperate that they are using civlian pick up trucks and cars to ferry supplies to their troops on the front line. Also the Russians are attackng on flat open ground sown with a lot of Ukrainian mines. with teh Ukrainians on high ground positions. Russian strategy seems to just try to drown the Ukrainians with tanks and APCs after the usual Russian massive rolling artillery barrage , the Russian tanks and APCs would run into mines get disabled then the Ukrainians would hit them with artillery and ATGMs. and the Ukrs would sow more mines with MLRS NATO mines. These factors are the main reasons why the Russian Avdiivka offensive is so slow and bloody. for the Russians. The motives for this offensive in my opinion is Garasimov trying to fend off allegations of his criminal incompetence by other Russian generals, Garasimov has been criticized for being criminally incompetent and constantly micromanaging and meddling into the work of other generals, he is also considered to be a politicking ahole who likes to bully his subordonates and likes to fire any Russian officer who crosses him or threatens his position real or perceived whether they are competent or not. So the Avdiivka offensive is his baby and he wants to prove to the Russian leadership and other Russian generals that he is competent. and has the balls and knowhow to successful lead and plan a campign. I would compare Garasimov to the suckhead Soviet generals Buddyonny and Pavlov. he is that bad. and Garasimov is still in power due to his close friendship with Shoigu and Putin.
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  23. well they tried to push from the south in Vulhedar in Feb 2023, well it was a disaster with the Russian 11th Marine brigade kaput. with 1K dead a hundred of so APCs and dozens of tanks destroyed. with minimal Ukrainian losses. Follow up attacks resulted in much the same. So pushing from the south is really a bad deal with places like Vulhedar being too tough a nut to crack. And yes also the Russian logistical situation in southern Russia is not good so its questionable if they can sustain such attacks other than it being feints to distract the Ukrainians from the main attack which is the Donbass.
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  24. As for crimes, I think the Russians post putin will negotiate their way out of the war by having war crimes immunity for their leaders. However Im not surprised there will be a spate of assasinations of Russian war criminals post war.
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  25. preparing for a quick war, the longer the war goes, the more Russian loses.
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  26. if there is another major Russian defeat and Putin is forced to mobilize again, Prigozhin will talk loud again, and hit Putin poliitcally , as long as Prigozhin is stil alvie and to a lesser extent Igor Girkin putin, their presences is a challenge to his authority, and can degrade his political standing.
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  27. the real nazis and terrorists in this war are the Russians. The Russian army and gov is certainly behaving like hitlerites.
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  28. Yep the next showdown during winter will be in the Donbass. expect Ukrs major winter offensives in the area.
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  29. Prigozhin's speech on how terrible the war is going for Russia rings truth and it shows his frustration with the Russian gov and mlitary high command. and that is the main cause of the rebellion.
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  30. well I predict the victory of Joe Biden in 2024 and the dems sweeping congress and senate and the purging of the rep party of maga elements and the destruction of the Maga faction will cause massive shockwaves in the halls of power in the Kremlin and Beijing. The Russian and Chinese elites will say our ploy vs. the west is kaput so we will go back to Pre war status quo which means , OK we Russians and Chinese sell to our best customers the west more or less good relations and behave. So both the Russians and Chinese elites purge thier respective dictators namely Putin and Xinping and return control of Russia and China to their elites and they will probably make sure no one like Putin or Xinping ever comes to power again. So I think after Biden wins in 2024 and wins big by sweeping the house and senate, in 2025, Russian and Chinese elites Purge Putin and Xinping and their people. both leaders either suffer deaths of natural causes or with Xinping imprisonment resignation. A few months later , Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine, tensions ease considerably in the South China sea. and with Taiwan. as Chinese military forces are withdrawn from to Chinese bases. Almost a back to business as usual status quo environment occurs. The new Russian and Chinese leaders blame Putin and Xinping for the Ukraine war and tensions with Taiwan. The new Russian and Chinese leaders are controlled by their own elites who will not let another Putin or Xinping come to power. Putin and Xinping do not get another term of office. To speculate as to what happens next. The west goes back to buying cheapo Russian gas and oil, the west starts to uplift the economy of Vietnam and China to serve as a foil and alternative to China. China and Russia still get support and trade in investments from the west but not as much compared to before the Ukraine war and the third term start of Xinping. The west do not want Russia and China to go into economic depression as it would trigger unacceptable instabilities in those countries but want stable Chinese and Russian govs. but not rich enough for them to develop their militaries and to get the rise of dictatorial elements. Ukraine gets all of its pre 2014 land back including Crimea, gets trillions of USD of investments from the west and economy booms also Ukraine gets accepted in EU and NATO. Belarus and Georgia throw off their pro Russian govs and later in a decade Belarus and Georgia get accepted in the EU and NATO, Armenia gets accepted into the EU. and becomes a NATO protectorate. Russia goes into economic political chaos. but the west makes sure the new western leaning Russian gov is stable but the new Rusian gov has to contend with a plethora of rival nationalist and secessionist and criminal factions with their own armed militias. who are financed and supported by China and Turkey/Saudi Arabia. Russia becomes a new great game between USA, Turkey/Saudi Arabia and China. Iran purges its pro Putin leaders and gets a new pro west leadership, not surprised if they destroy their nuke program. North korea is hit with even bigger massive sanctions possible military conflict or confrontation with North Korea now bereft of Chinese support, as the west want North Korean blood. Im not surprised if Kim JOng Un and his sister suddently dies of natural causes replaced by his brother. and North Korea begins reapproachment with teh west. China wants good relations with the west and is willing to sacrifice the North korean leadership to do it.
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  31. Surovikin may well have him fall from a window.
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  32. and the ferris wheel broke down hahaah
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  33. yes agree claims of turning points are premature and we will see in the next week or so how the battle goes, my vbiew is that the Russians might take the Donbass, but they would incur massive casualties and vehicle losses. So much so that it makes them ripe for a Ukr counterattack. looking at the war as it is going, well it seems that Russian goals are getting smaller and smaller and its only month 3 going into month 4. the Russians are going slow and taking huge losses. and the Russian economy cannot absorb the war the longer the war goes. I think the war will end this year probably in the fall or winter. of 2022 maybe going into 2023. Why do I say so,? well the months of June to Sept are months where the terrain of Ukraine in good for mechanized warfare, the ground is open weather clear, and ground is hard. and the Russians will try to use that to their advantage. Right now its slow since the ground is muddy and the Russians are mainly stuck on roads. I can see the Russians making significant gains in the months of June to Sept. then when the rains and mud comes again they will get bogged down. However I do think the Russians will overstretch and incur massive losses and get counterattacked as the Ukrainians will probably switch from infantry guerilla style supplemneted by armor to full on armor but supplemented by off road vehicles with mounted ATGMs. I think both sides will use these off road civilian vehicles and wheeled APCs in the summer months to supplement their tracked AFVs to bring in troops and to conduct maneuver warfare vs. the less maneuverable tracked AFVs destroying them with ATGMs, however I think the Ukrainains will excel better on this side, and have more of them, while the Russians only have them with their elite units. most of their troops will be mounted on tracked APCs
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  34. I think the real goal for the west is to weaken the Russians to a point but not to have the collapse of the Russian regime and go into civil war in Russia. I think the west wants a weak Russia but stable enough that they can exploit it. and No putin in charge So far yes the Russian military and economy has been much weakened. but Putin is still in charge but he is old in his early 70s and probably wont last very long. and Russia is stable but wont be engaged in a war esp. with NATO as the Ukraine war has proved the Russian military is a paper tiger.
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  35. Blaming Ukraine for this invasion is like blaming a rape victim for dressing provocatively. Stupid assumptions by aholes like Oliver Stone.
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  36. Russian defeat in the Ukraine war will spell the end of Putinism and transitioning Russia from the Soviet to the EU era.
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  37. YES there is vs. the USA and NATO.
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  38. that is why the 2024 USA elections is very crucial to the war in Ukraine. If Trump wins, Well the NATO alliance is broken and you willl have Putin ending the war in Ukraine with a upper hand in negotiations with all the territories he conquered from Ukraine under his control and a possiblie future war with NATO. as Putin thinks now is the time to strike with NATO sundering under a Trump presidency, however if Biden wins, well. I think the Russian elites will cut their losses and possibly chuck Putin out of power and negotiate for a withdrawal from Ukraine. The Russian economy simply cannot take 4 more years of battering , Russian tanks are a finite quantitiy even though have lots of them, and analysts estimate by 2026 with the current loss rate vis a vis the Russian rate of tank production and refurbishment, the Russian will have a tank shortage by 2026.
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  39. Belarus military is laughable , in fact, the moment Lukashenko orders the Belarus military to invaded Ukraine and the Belarus army gets its ass handed to them, Belarus will explode in rebellion, Russia will now have two countries to fight in.
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  40. Russia wont collapse , it will just lose 25 to 50 percent of its territory to secession. you will have several new countries in the Caucasus and east of the urals. Will happen due to collapsed economy not enough money to pay for its military , a massively downgraded military means Russian gov cant suppress these rebellions.
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  41. More like Trump is humiliated not zelensky, Zelensky gained a lot of sympathy in the USA and around the world. Trump labelled a low class piece of garbage bully and Zelensky stood his ground. hard.
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  42. yah Putin probably thought Ukraine would be a cake walk also in keeping with teh stupid Russian tradition of only telling your boss the good news and what he wants to hear, he was probably told that the Ukrainian army was weak, they would desert in a heartbeat and ovethrow Zelensky and that the Ukrainian would rise up and overthrow Zelensky. etc. and Putin probably dismissed news that the Ukrainian army was getting equipped with hundreds of Javelin and NLAW ATGMs and getting NATO SOF training. or that the EUro Maidan protesters were all CIA paid actors who just did it for the money...yep Putin blundered into this war thinking it would last a few days then the whole situation turned into a massive pile of shit for him, and he cant get out without risking the collapse of his regime. and I think by now , Putin has really downgraded his goals which is basically keeping as much as he can with the bare minimum of controlling the DOnbass and Crimea before negotiating for an armistice. That is why I think this wars final outcome is predicated on who wins the USA presidential elections of 2024, if Trump or someone like him wins, then Russia gets a marginal win with 20 percent of Ukraine and regime survival for Putin, and if Biden wins, well the war goes on and the USA probably increases aid to Ukraine. and from what I read, Russian economists predict that the Russian economy can only take the war until 2025 when the Russian wealth fund(aka war fund) runs out. and the Russian economy starts to deform badly. Also Shoigu stated that the Russian army can fight in Ukraine until at least 2025 which coincidentally is the year the winner of the USA presidential elections of 2024 comes into office(or continues office in the case of Biden). I think the war ends either in 2025 or in 2026 with either a Russian marginal win as I mentioned earlier or Russian elites depose Putin and withdraw completely from Ukraine in exchange for normalized relations with the west, removal of sanctions. everything will be blamed on Putin (probably dead by that time) and his inner circle. as the elites try to salvage as much of the Russian economy as they can.
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  43. a sitrep on the current situation in the Kharkov offensive Note. III Regiment, X Brigade XX Division XXX Corps Russian Order of battle: 2nd Spetnaz X, 7th Motor Rifle III, 18th Motor Rifle XX, 72nd Motor Rifle XX, 25th Motor Rifle X, 138th Motor Rifle X, 104th Artillery X, 244th artillery X. Ukrainian Order of battle: 13th & 71st Jaeger Xs, 42nd Mech X, 57th Motorized X. aim to drive all the way to Kharkov and also drive into the rear of Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river thus enabling Russian group west to assault Kupyansk. Well the Russian offensive is turning out to be a disaster . thousands of casualties for a few villages captured. in 8 days of fighting. The Russian were not even able to reach the Ukrainian first line of defense but were stopped several KMs north of it. Ukrainians seem to be well supplied with artillery ammo, and the Ukrainians did not redeploy other units from other front lines to stop the Russians. in fact its the Russians redeploying other units from other front lines to prevent the Russian offensive from turning into a full on disaster. also I find it amusing the Russian commander of this Kharkov assault is General Lapin The same General Lapin who was commanding Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive in late 2022 which saw the near destruction of the Russian 4th Guards tank XX, the severe mauling of the 2nd guards motor rifle XX and the 11th army XXX. Lapin was fired in late 2022 due to this debacle and even Kadyrov wanted Lapin demoted to a private in the Russian army and sent to the front as cannon fodder. LOL. well it seems the Russians are really hard up for generals to command so they sent this chump to command the latest Kharkov offensive. Well if the whole operations turns out to be a disaster not surprised if Lapin falls out of a window.
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  44. well I think Ukr was caught by surprise how coordinated the Russian attack was as they failed in their attacks in the area since 2014 due to extensive ukr defenses in the Donbass. and the Ukr high command has ordered the Ukr forces in the DOnbass to stay put and hold off the Russians, in the meanwhile the Russians have pulled their forces from other fronts to concentrate on donbass, the Ukrs have taken advantage of this and have been counterattacking in the South and East , so yah while the Ukrs have been caught by surprise its not a big surprise and probably in their plans to hit the Russians in their weak points and sever supply lines. So the main attack in Donbass will sputter and stop. and the Ukrs gain more land in the east and south and hopefully inflict catastrophic losses on the Russians.
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  45. oh and You have a Russian army acting like a bunch of private armies who are poorly coordinated , have a poor coordinated logistics. which are fought over by them, assets and resources are very much politicized , many a time they have to buy their own equipment recruit their own troops. an d these PMCs are usually poor leadreship, morale and training vs. a well coordinated, led, equipped and trained Ukrainian army who have an excellent logistics system, with massive support from the west. with high morale. fighting a war to kick out the Russian invaders. with local manpower superiority. This is just disaster for the Russian army, question is how long can Russia keep up and tolerate this ongoing disaster of a war for them .
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  46. they are not only recruiting from Russian prisons but also planning to recruit from African prisons, heck Iim not surprised they start recruiting from Iranian, Syrian, Arab, and Latin American prisons.
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  47.  @andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416  well they will communicate with english get interpreters. also there is no language barrier with a gun pointed at you and beatings if you dont understand.
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  48.  @andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416  yes that is why you need interpreters.
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  49. yes all that plus the fact Russian oligarchs and elites really hate the Russian central bank esp. Elvira, yah this all started when Putin close Putin buddy Sergey Chemesov got into a ugly political spat with Elvira, so Putin chose his buddy over Elvira so now very doubtful thatd hte Interest rate will be raised beyond the current rate.
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  50. Typical Russian negotiation tactics. By the time this war ends, Russia will be totally messed up. Again depends on who win the 2024 USA elections. If Kamala wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russian elites deposing Putin cut their losses preserve the economy and teh Russian state, a Russian total withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange , all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets are unfrozen in western banks, normalized relations with the west, formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing borders, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. If Trump wins, war ends in 2025 or in 2026 with the Russians keeping whatever they conquered from Ukraine. This is spun as a victory by Putin. There is an armistice but no peace treaty , sanctions vs. Russia are still in place. relations with the west still filled with tensions, and Russian assets in western banks still left frozen. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the USA and the west with Trump and his friends companies benefiting. Both sides build up their militaries again and ready up for a next war. Either way, Ukraine joins NATO several years after the war ends, faster if Kamala Harris wins. Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD in reconstruction aid from the west. Ukrainian economy booms during reconstruction. Russian economy goes to depression mode , hyperinflation , high unemployment, political and social chaos as the Moscow regime tries to assert control along with hundreds of thousands of Russian veterans coming back from the war causes social chaos in Russia. Putin if still in power clamps down hard on crime and civil disorder. If Putin was overthrown, Russia goes thru a period of social political and economic disorder simliar to teh 90s However Russia economically is kept stable with western support for the new Moscow gov. If PUtin still in power Putin with military force manages to restore order to Russia but after Putin dies, bloody civil war erupts in Russia. between various armed groups. I posit that it would be better if Russia lost the war, since it wont be burdened by economic sanctions and will western economic support so a soft landing. If Russia won the war, Putin would try to restore order with military force and might work in the short run but after he dies Russia goes through a bloody civil war not seen since 1917 to 1922.
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