Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "The Wall Street Journal" channel.

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  12. Well Taiwan already has very good defenses vs. invasion, their beaches they have been preparing since 1949. Their beaches can easilly be festooned with tank traps and mined , lots of bunkers and emplacements all over the island, most Taiwan males of fighting age have some military training. Taiwanese army is well trained, have modern weapons esp. Javelins. tanks are 70s and 80s vintage , planes are US and French Mirage 2000s and F-16s. with latest upgrades. Navy wise well nothing compared to the Chinese navy . And it takes about 2 hours to reach Taiwan from the mainland by boat during that time the invasion fleet is getting hit by Taiwanese ASMs cruise missles, air strikes. if they manage to get to the beaches they are going to run into fortified beach emplacements. heavy fire from entrenched Taiwanese troops. Also the air and sea will be heavilly contested by the USN and Taiwanese navies and air forces. It will be a military disaster for China. even worse than the Sino Vietnam war of 1979. In fact I would say the Chinese military disaster would be comparable to their failed invasion of the Kinmen Islands in 1949. where a failed Chinese invasion of Kinmen islands resulted in 99 percent loss of the Chinese invasion force. the Chinese invasion force who manage to get back to the mainland managed to do so in a few boats and rafts. The same thing can happen if the Chinese invade. yah how can you go back to the mainland if all your ships are sunk. and your planes shot down. if you swim most likely you are kaput.
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  22. I think war might not end in 2025 since the Russians think they are winning and the Ukrainians think they are still strong enough to hold out vs. the Russians. and inflict massive losses on them even though yes the Ukrainians are slowly being ground down. I think Trump will probably not be able to forge a armistice in 2025 so its doubtful that he will aid Ukraine however I do think in this case the Europeans in particular Ukraines allies in the EU , and UK, Canada, Australia will probably step in and dramatically step in and ramp up their support for Ukraine with the possiblity of sending military forces into Ukraine but not fighting the Russians directly, though I do think the Europeans might send in some of their airplanes with volunteer pilots to fight for Ukraine. I think a possible Euro expeditionary force consiting of French, UK, Polish, Italian , Spanish, troops as a special reserve force for UKraine, to prevent a Ukrainian battlefield collapse. which can be a special bargaining chip for Ukraine. also Trump allows Ukraine to purchase weapons and supplies from the USA directly using EU funds. Freezing the battlefield. and continuing the attritional war. What is prompting the Ukrainains to resist is the really odious demands from the Russians for peace which is practically a full surrender of Ukraine. I think Ukraine will fight on and yes the longer the war goes the worse for both sides. hitting the Ukrainians manpower issue making it worse, and hitting the Russians economically , along with the prospect that Russia may have to do a general mobilization will hit his political standing even more. So in this scenario, the Russians may actually say "win" this war by doing a Russian favorable armistice with capturing the Donbass which is Russia's minimum war objective and get to keep say 25 percent of Ukraine. and keep the Putin regime intact and still in power but I think the cost may be so massive that Russia will experience some sort of social economic and political destabilization after the war is over, Yes Russia can spin this one that they won the war, but it will feel that they did not win the war but more like lost the war. I can see the Russians by the time the war ends in this scenario the Russians get 1.5 to 2 million casualties, its military stocks severely depleted. its army despite winning has been humiliated. its economy dangerously in war mode, the Russian elites and population have mostly lost faith in Putin's ability to rule. and while sanctions have been lifted the Europeans are still hostile to the Russians and its not business as usual. Russia starts experiencing high crime rates and even rebellions due to poor economy which starts to hit the Russians hard post war, and hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans returning to Russia. with high unemployment, more repressive Russian gov as putin starts to respond to instability with crackdowns. cost of rebuilding its conquered territories , cost of rebuilding its damaged industries. as well as rebuillding its economy and military. In short Moscow is not in any mood or stomach to do another war and focuses on rebuild. Ukraine on the other hand may have lost the war but it still has control of 75 percent of the country., and its being rebuilt with hundreds of billions of USD in aid from the Europeans and their allies. Also Ukraine gets security guarantees from UK France and other Euro nations. also the Ukrainians rapidly rebuild. with the view of round 2 with Russia in the future. The Ukrainians may have lost the war but will have performed well above expectations. and have managed to get out of this war with a stable gov. the Russians may have won the war but have gotten a growing SOcial economic and political instability post war. and while Putin may want to finish the job and still feels threatened with a possibly future resurgent Ukraine , he does not have the stomach to do so. and when Putin there might be destabilization in Russia . which may trigger a civli war.
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