Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Putin's Gamble: Why Russia Spent So Much on Bakhmut" video.

  1. and when Putin loses Bakhmut in the upcoming offensive it will be a massive political blow for Putin, so much that he will try to hilariously spin this as Bakhmut was never important to the Russians anyways and they can afford losing 100K men. However putin will still hang on hoping things improve substantially with the 2024 USA elections.
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  2. I forsee the Russian civil war starting in 2026 when a coaltion of oligarchs, regional militias with their PMCs along with factions of the Russian military get sick and tired of the Putin regime and fearing Putin will purge them move against Putin. Putin is overthrown by 2027 and is allowed to leave Russia for exile in Syria and dies of natural causes a few years later. Meanwhile the coalition falls apart when in power and a new civil war erupts. Meanwhile several republics like Chechnya, Tatarstan declare independence. While this is happening. Ukraine takes back Crimea in the late 2020s. as the varous Russian factions are busy fighting each other and Russia is without a gov. civil war ends sometime in the early 2030s with the Russian Fed surviving with 50 percent less of its pre war territory and several new ex. Russian fed nations emerging. also with the downfall of Putin, Belarus coverthrows Lukashenko new Liberal gov applies to join NATO and EU. So does Armenia, Georgia(georgian dream party is overthrown). Urkaine joins NATO shortly after the war is over. Meanwhile a new regime takes over in what is left of the Russian fed. which is authoritarian first but shifts to a democratically elected gov (to satisfy the west and restore normal relations and get rid of the sanctions) simliar to the Pre war Ukrainian gov with the real power held by oligarchs and leaders change via general elections. siding with the west(since the oligarchs dont want to get controlled by China). China meanwhile supports the various new Russian fed republis and the Central Asian former USSR republics making them into Chinese economic puppets, a defensive pact is formed later betweeen China and these nations simliar to the CSTO.
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  3.  @gordondwyer3641  and currently Ukraine is making cheese holes in belgorod and moscow LOL
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  4. ven if Trump wins and comes into office in 2025, looking at the how the Russian army has greatly weakened since Feb 2022. I think the Russian army would have been so degraded that even if Trump pulled the plug on supporting Ukraine, Ukraine can still win the war. by early 2025, I think the Russian economy would be near collapse or in really bad shape. even much stronger sanctions on Russia, I think Russia by that time has become a pariah state to the west. with total sanctions put on it. along with oil prices going down. and the Ukrs having recaptured major portions of their lost territory with only parts of the Donbass and the Crimea and the south still under Russian control. also having lost possibly 500K Casualties. and cant really mobilize more troops due to unrest in Russia. with a Pro Ukraine pres. in office in 2025 Russia is screwed. Im not surprised war ends with teh Russians pushed back to pre 2022 war borders in 2025 or withdraws voluntarilly. but total sanctions dont relent until the Russians fully withdraw from Crimea, and Putin steps down from power and democratic elections are called in Russia, along with prosecution of Russian war criminals. I think the ongoing unrest will get worse as Russians perceive the war to be a failure and Putin a liabiliy. along with near economic collapse. along with a much weakened putin hold on the miltiary and gov. along with oligarchs and regional govs having their own PMCs to challenge Putin's hold on power. Yep a possible situation similiar to the start of the Mexican revolution 1910 when various forces united to overthrow the gov of Porfirio Diaz, a Mexican dictator who held power for a long time( 27 years) with similarities on Putin(in power for 23 years).
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