Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Germany's Gamble: Why the Ostpolitik Putin Policy Backfired" video.

  1. well I think Merkel and the west underestimated Putin a lot, and Putin was quite expert at political maneuvering however he got too greedy with Ukraine, and the west trapped him here, now the war in Ukraine is an existential threat for Putin, I think Putin will fight it out to the end in Ukraine, however I dont think he will use nukes to win , doing so will also be a loss for him. in fact there is a good chance of war with NATO and at the very least total economic sanctions on Russia, which crashes the Russian economy hard and massively increased aid to Ukraine, and his own people not following his orders and instead overthrowing him. So Putin's last option is to fight it out to the end and hope that Western aid to Ukraine stops and they force Ukraine to an armistice and Putin gets to keep whatever he conquered at the time of the armistice. That is why the 2024 USA elections is pivotal to teh war, If Biden or a pro Ukraine pres. wins, then Russia has 4 more years to try to hang on, which I dont think Putin can do with the way the war is going. If Trump or a Pro Peace Pres wins, then there is a good chance that aid to Ukraine stops and a armistice is quite possible leaving Russian with whatever it conquered and Putin can use this for regime survival and spin the war as a victory. Of course it really depends on the state of hte Russian army and how much of Ukraine Russia controls and the state of the Russian economy in the final outcome as to the survival of hte Putin regime. I think that even if Biden wins the USA elections of 2024, Putin will try to hang on until Ukraine pushes the Russians out of Ukraine including Crimea. and USA aid will increase exponentially after a Biden win, Russian military and economy get degraded badly . I dont think Putin will last too long after 2024. and after he is gone, well new Russian regime will have to deal with a Russian in economic collapse, bankrupt, a military in revolt, social problems, I cannot see any Russian leader after Putin who can deal with these problems and the Russian state will slide into some sort of civil war, or disorder. Also the west might drop all the sanctions in exchange of some concessions to keep the new Moscow gov stable. and probably pump in more money into Russia to keep the Russian economy from total collapse. With a bankrupt Russian state with a very weak military , I see some parts of Russia seceding and becoming independent countries however I think the Russian fed will keep it together mostly since most parts of Russia have big Russian ethnic majorities. however due to a weak military economy , law and order will be a problem and western investments will be slow to return to Russia and this will result in high crime rates, the return of hte 90s with a vengeance. out of control inflation. the west will not allow a Russian president like Putin to come to power again. and will monitor Russian politics and gov very carefully and make sure its more or less democratic.
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  2. ostpolitik worked back in the day since the USSR was not ruled by a dictator, but by a sane communist party controlled gov. unfortunately ostpolitik does not work when a country is controlled by a dictator esp. one who is not sane and has a big ego and ambitions.
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