Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "HistoryLegends"
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I personally think the Ukrainians can still win the battle of the Donbass, and yes I highly agree with you on the battle of Budapest similiarity. Hopefully the Ukrainians do a very successful operation Konrad and smack the Russians hard. the battle of the Donbass will enter a critical phase next month as the ground hardens and the weather gets clearer. I think the Russians will gain a lot of ground in the next few weeks in the area, On the side they are going to try to take Mikolayiv near Odessa. Also expect the Russians to make another push to Kharkov. and yah in the donbass I expect the Russians to pocket and cauldron the Ukrainians. However the Russians will incur a LOT of casualties, esp. in their elite units which are being used as shock troops. and the Ukrainians are going to be using their arty , drones and ATGMs a LOT. Hitting supply lines. HOwever I think in the aftermath, the Russians will be exhausted. ripe for the Ukr counteroffensive. Heck The Russians may actually capture all of Donbass, threaten Kharkov, and isolate even Odessa and do a land bridge to Transnistria by say mid to late summer. but the Russians will have incurred a LOT of losses. and the Ukrs will hit them hard in a counteroffensive. Possibly even invade Transnistria. This just extends the war as the Ukrainians will not give up and will fight to victory. probably even illicit more support from NATO. like western tanks and jets being supplied to Ukraine. Russia may take a lot of Ukr territory but cant hold it. and its economy longer the war goes cannot support it. and the Ukrainians get a lot of financial economic support from the USA, EU and their allies. and the Chinese are getting wary of supporting Russia. The Chinese are probably just giving the Russians enough to keep them upright, but the Chinese will backstab the Russians later when they lose the war and Putin is gone. My view of the war's conclusion is that the war will most likely extend into next year. will be after Putin dies , there is a power struggle, or even a power struggle to remove his successor. which in the background, teh war is really not going well, and the Russians actually lost significant ground, suffered a horrendous defeat, and its clear the Russians cannot win the war, their economy in collapse, a lot more dissent from the Russian public and morale of the Russians soldiers in the field even lower. So many AFVs have been destroyed they are probalby scraping the bottom of the barrell in equipment and vehicles. I think the war will end when Russian gov the new one calls it quits and abandons their troops in Ukraine. They will say the Russian gov is bankrupt and we dont have money to properly evacuate Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian troops will be forced to walk back hitchike or even surrender to the Ukrainians , yep a uncontrolled Russian army with no authority will be chaotic, mass looting not seen the end of WW2 in the eastern front Germany. Mass surrenders not seen since WW2. Ukrainians will be forced to do an offensive to control areas to curtail Russian looting rape rioting etc. I expect large scale war crimes trial on the scale of WW2 on captured Russian troops for atrocities. While Ukraine is devastaated, there will be a massive marshall plan to fix ukraine Ukraine will boom in the reconstruction. Lots of Russian men equipment and vehicles will be left in Ukraine not surprised if arms dealers go to ukraine to buy captured Russian equipment, for Russia it will be worse. The Russia will start to resemble like Venezuela but in disorder. unrest. Weak central authority, unrest rebellion east of the Urals. and Caucasus. high crime rates, collapsed economy. political chaos. very weak military and police forces . Arms dealers will go to Russia to buy their military equipment at bottom of the barrell fire sale rates, since the Russian gov. will need a LOT of money to recover. China will exploit this and support the secessionists east of the Urals. and nationalist pro Putin elements to weaken the now Pro Western Moscow gov. with a military so weak it will not be able to prevent the secession of various Russian republics starting with Chechnya. I think Post war, with a Russia undergoing political and economic upheavals and balkanizing, it will not be seen as a threat anymore but as a excellent economic resources exploitation opportunity by various foreign powers esp. the USA and most importantly China. who will support the createion of various indpependent former Puppet states in Siberia and the Far East and the Caucasus. Russia will be a total shit show. Like a huge version of Libya.
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its not surprise Ukrs already knew the gathering of forces weeks ago, and tried to contain it with Storms hadows and JDAMs, however the Russians made a breakthru recently and have been attacking since July 19 2023 but have been stopped, why? typical shitty Russian logistics bad terrain, poor roads, open fields heavily mined by the Ukrs, and the Russian logistics still reliant on rail, and they are far from their rail head and with poor roads not enough trucks, the Russians are not able to exploit the breakthru and the Ukrs manage to plug the hole the Russians made throw back the Russians with heavy losses. This is what happens when the Russians try a offensive of this size, it falls apart due to poor logistics, bet you you will see lots of abandoned Russian tanks just like 2022, when Russian tanks were towed by tractors on Tik tok, those days will come again LOL
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