Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "The Russian Dude"
channel.
-
20
-
9
-
6
-
5
-
5
-
4
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
my take Putin is kicked out after losing this war, a military junta gov takes over, but its hold on Russia is tenous due to not having a strong leader, also collapsed economy , anger at losing the war, gov not able to bring law and order over lar
ge portions of Russian fed. economic hardship leads to unrest , massive Russian refugee crisis on neighbouring nations. US and her allies support the Moscow gov. since it wants a stable solid but weak and contrallable Moscow gov. but a weakened army, the Turks and Chinese former USSR states, also want the same thing. a military weak Russia, stable gov. and econony , while the neighbourhoring states do not want a massive Russian refugee crisis and a possible civil war spilling into their borders but they want a significantly weakened Russia so it does not create this kind of geopolitical problem. in the future. I think the Russian Fed will lose 25 percent of its pre war territory to secession, in the Caucasus , Central Asia , while the Russian Fed will still have the larget geography in the former USSR states, its greatly weakened. economically and militarilly. Ukraine in the meantime while devastated badly in the war, rebuilds rapidly with a massive hundreds of billions of USD marshal plan from the USA and EU. and their allies. Ukraine econimically booms during reconstruction recovery, while there is a lot of corruption gov reforms shakes out its USSR influence and models itself to EU countries. same with Belarus. looking towards EU intergratuon and NATO membership. the land of the former USSR becomes a great game of influence between USA/EU, Turkey/Saudi, and China. Ukraine, Belarus, Baltics, Armenia , Georgia would be firmly under USA EU influence, the Caucasus and parts of Central Asia would be untder Turkish influence and large parts of Central Asia and the far east under Chinese influence. Russia will flip flop mainly under USA/EU influence but also being heavilly influenced by the Turks and the CHinese. Russia will still retain strong pervasive gov corruption despite attempts to reform. Chaotic political situation in Russia, as the USA, Turks and Chinese EU, do not want another strong leader to emerge out of Russia, and encourages corruption there more or less to keep Russia weak. USA and EU wants a democratic European leaning Russia with a liberal leadership. the Chinese and Turks dont want that. The Chinese want a leader they can control and subordonate to Chinese power. Meanwile Russian political sitaution is chaotic with clashes between liberal, nationalist elements. and the Russian gov has to deal with secessionists with the Russian gov not being able to control the Russian military at times. Russia for the next 10-20 years would be more akin to a third world country in Europe ala Moldova.
1
-
1