Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Who Has The Advantage In Ukraine?" video.

Manpower... true the Russians have the advantage in manpower 10-1 if you draw on the entire Russian popualtion as compared to the Ukrs. however the Ukrs have the home field advantage, shorter supply lines , a lot better management of logsitics, and the Ukrs mobilized at the start of hte war while teh Russians well took them 8 months into the war to mobilize. Also look at logistics, Russian logistics as it is in Ukraine cannot really handle hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, whenenver they throw in masses of troops, these units fall apart in the face of Ukrs offensives. why?, yah you thrown in thousands of men vehicles into the fight, however if your logistical system cannot support it, the army will suffer from bad supply issues and shortagees, in essentials like ammo and fuel, and when that happens and your enemy goes ont he offensive you get things like the Russian disasters at Kiev and Kharkov. where you get lots of abandoned Russian vehicles and Russian troops running away even leaving their weapons, also this leads in to soldier morale training quality. Ukrainians, well motivated high morale, Russians, apatheitc, poorly motivated, poor morale. Training: Similiar with the Ukrs having better overall. Leadership, Ukrs have a better overall leadership overall. Equipment. Ukrs troops are generally better equippped than their Russian counterparts due to massive aid from NATO countries and and their allies, esp. the USA. also look at night vision gear, personal drones, outiside Russian elite units(Spetsnaz, core wagner, VDV) Russian troops hafe a severe shortage of these. Also tactics used. these days Russians like to do WW1 style human wave attacks. supported by massed area blanket artillery fire and air support who mostly does pray and spray attacks from a distance since they are terrified of Ukrs SAMs. Ukrs like to do maneuver warfre, hit and run attacks, ambushes. and not do heady on costly ww1 style attacks. Ukrs like to target Russian logistics with missles and artillery as well as command centers cut off the head first before attracks.
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Igor Girkin one of the masterminds of the Russian invasion of Ukr in 2014, has been kicked out for the third time volunteering at the fornt, Girkin has been deeply critical of MOscow's handling of the war. and Girkin has been some of the most honest , brutal direct ot the point Russian mil bloggers. When he recently got back to Russia, he says, the Russian soldiers are apathetic, they dont know what they are fighting for, while the ukrs are going from strength to strengh highly motivated they know what they are fighitng for and getting better equipped all the time. I leave that for people to brew on.
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my view stalemate in a convnetional war sense, however the Russians could win this war anytime, but have to use large amounts of WMDs to do so. and in doing so will risk war with NATO, and destruction of the Russian economy. So Putin is in a dillemma here, if he leaves Ukraine back to pre war borders,Putin will be overthrown and probably get killed. the only way he can get the Ukrs to qui is to probably use WMDs large scale. since the Ukrs will not surrender and back down. if the Russians do that, the Russians might lose , since NATO will military intervene and the risk of war with NATO will be big. and Russia has no chance to win a conventional war with NATO unless of course NATO is stupid enough to invade Russian proper itself or a nuclear exchange ensues where no one wins. I personally think Putin knows this but is hedging things as the use of WMDs will be his last card to play. the Russian economy is slowly dying from sanctions. its dependent on high oil prices which wlll come down when there is a worldwide recession which is being forecast for 2023. the Russians cannot mobilize their population forever, eventually the population support for Putin will crack and you will have a general revolt. Also the longer theh war goes the more strain on the Russian economy as the war is getting more expensive to prosecute. The Russian army is also getting more dillapidated its getting to be more of a shadow of what it was at the start of hte war. Russians are using WW1 style human wave assaults in the Donbass against the Ukrs, the Russian are buying large amounts of iranian missles and drones, as well as artillery ammo from the Iranians and North Koreans(probably the Chinese too under the table probably thru North Korea). since Russian stocks of missle and artillery that were stored for decades do not work due to corruption and poor management.
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Current Russian strategy is to hope the winter economic hardships on the Ukrs and Europeans will force the Ukrs to the negotiation table to agree on Russian terms. while the Russians build up their forces, train them properly as well as building fortifiucations in the Donbass and Crimea and Southern Kherson for a possible Ukr major offensive. the Russian offensives in the Donbass and threat of invasion from Belarus are all designed by the Russians to try to draw away Ukrainian troops and distract the Ukrs from launching major offensives against hte Russians. While the Russians bluster about how stupid and poor the Ukr military is, I believe the Russian military and gov leadereship are afraid of the growing strength and capability of the Ukrainian army and afraid of losing the war. This winter strategy wil fail for the Russians, and I think by Mach or April 2023. The Russians will change their strategy to basically causing as much casualties on the Ukrs forces as they can to force a Ukrs coming to the peace table on Russian terms, I think the Russian will use at first large amounts of chemical weapons. on the Ukrs. While causing a lot of Ukrs casualties, this will not work, and the ukrs will not only fight on but the Russians willl get total sanctions from the USA EU and their allies. and all other countries will be sancitoned the same way if they dont back total sanctions. Plus total sequestration of Russian property abroad. and if the Putin orders the use of nukes well...there is a good chance, his own military overthrows him, then its game over. My view war ends in mid to late 2023.
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Equipment: Russia holds the advantage in equipment but they are a shadow of their pre war status. the Russians are now using Iranian made drones and missles. and are trying to convert their WW2 AN-2 biplanes as drones. a lot of Russian stored artillery and missles are unusable due to poor storage. if you think the Ukrs are consuming more than the USA is producing, the Russians are doing it 10X more. and also the Ukrs are buying their ammo in the black market, and there are reports the ukrs are also using Iranian made artillery ammo, not susprised they are using Chinese made ones, that is why the Ukrs is not really opnely breaking off diplomatic contacts with the iranians, yes the Russians have a lot of stored ammo since the cold war but many are duds , they dont work due to poor storage.
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as for the publics feeling this war: true different, ukrs are geting it direct, while the Russians, well, they Russians heavilly recruited their troops from politically insignficant poor areas of Russia from non Russian ethnics. The Russians have mostly not heavilly recruited from the European Russian areas of Moscow , St. Petersburg etc. so the Russian public per se is not feeling it yet, since the Russians in the recruitment areas really have litle political say than compared to those in the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas. However Ukrs while its in their face still have high morale high motivation to fight, Russians poor morale apathetic poor motivation. However Russian political support for war has barely cracked , this will come from the economy which is slowly collapsing. take several years to effect with the current sanctions. however if the sacntions turn worse like total sanctions get put on Russia, total economic isolation well then maybe Russina public support will finally crack.
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My view I dont think Putin wants this war to go on for long one. Putin initially envisioned this war to be over in two weeks, with a collapse of Ukrainina gov and military. well. ten months into the war the Ukrainians are still fighting hard with better morale and eqeuipment than the start of the war. The Russians took control of 40 percent of Ukraine in the first 3 months of the war now 10 months in, the Russians control about 25 percent. I remember when I commented in March 2022 that the Russians are starting to send 60 year old T-62 tanks and cold war sotck Soviet missles and equipment into the war to support their Donbass puppets I was laughed at , now 9 months later this is the new normal.
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