Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Myths About A Russian Defeat in Ukraine" video.
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well Preston Russia does not have the same mindset as the west esp. the USA, yes we are ready to negotiate when you lose a war and dont collapse just like what happened to the USA in Vietnam , and Afghanistan. But in Russia they take this shit very seriously:
Now here are two wars that Russia lost in the past and the results:
Soviet Afghan war 1979 to 1989: Yes the USSR the precursor state to Russia lost this war, and yes the USSR collapsed the next year 1990. But this war was not the only reason why the USSR collapsed, in fact I think it was a minor reason, but the overall reason the USSR collapsed was a confluence of events and reason but most importantly the collapse of the Soviet economy was the most important reason, as the Soviet economy was not only very inefficient but the Soviet state yearly was overspending massively on its military and aid to its client states all over the world, yes the Soviet Afghan war was expensive but it failed in comparison to the massive cost of trying to catch up to the USA militarilly and technologically. as well as fighting proxy wars with the USA. The Soviet afghan war was probably the most expensive of the various proxy wars the Soviets and USA were doing and the Americans were probably paying a lot more than the Soviets but the Americans have a substantial bigger economy than the USSR and also had a very efficient gov and capitalistic economy. The Soviet communist command economy sucked and the Soviets profited when it was selling resources ironically to its capitalist enemies.
1st Chechen war 1994 to 1996: yes the Russians lost this war when the Russian generals bugged out and left their men in Chechnya in the aftermath of the successful Chechen guerilla offensive operation Jihad. However while there was a big stain and embarassment for Yeltsin and even talk of a coup vs. the yeltsin gov but yeltsin survived, the Russian economy did not collapse why? its because the West made sure Russia did not collapse with heavy massive Western investments in the Russian economy. In fact the Russian economy was booming at the time. and Yeltsin was able to go for another 4 years before handing presidency to Putin. Also the west did not support the Chechen rebels and did not want the Chechens to win as they were viewed as muslim terrorists by the west.
Now the current Ukraine war 2022 to present. There is a big difference between the two earlier wars. The Russians are in bad relations with the USA and the EU and their allies. The Russians are under economic embargoes , the worst ever in history from the west. The current war has in two years had Russian military casualty rates exceeding the 1st and 2nd Chechen wars and soviet Afghan war combined. with tank and APC losses far exceeding those lost the in the three wars mentioned combined. This type of war was not seen in Europe and Russia since WW2 Eastern Front. Also Putin has a lot more power of governance of Russia compared to the leaders of the USSR and Yeltsin. The leaders of the USSR were more like spokesmen for the communist party of the USSR and policy was made after party meetings deals and agreements between the ruling Politburo. In Yeltsin's Russia, Yeltsin as drunk most of the time, so governance was done by his gov officials. Yeltsin himself did not have much power and was a front for Russian oligarchs who held the real power.
Since Putin seems to hold central power in Russia and does not really have any able successors, well. after he goes, his successor wont have the influence and brains to hold Russia together. So a collapse is very possible very simliar to what happened after Ivan the Terrrible died in 1584, Russia was plunged into chaos called the Time of Troubles 1598 to 1613, as Ivan killed his eldest son, and his 2nd son Feodor who became Tsar after Ivan died. Tsar Feodor sucked bad, and was disinterested in ruling Russia, and historians even surmised he may have been mentally ill . The death of Tsar Feodor in 1598 started a civil war in the Russian empire which the boyars fought each other, and even saw a Polish invasion which captured Moscow.
So in current day 21st century, you have a lot of oligarchs with their own private armies and Putin who would be compared to a nicer Ivan the terrible with no competent successor involved in a terrible war and enmity with the western powers. So yah when Putin dies, Time of Troubles 2.0 can happen in a violent succession which turns into a civil war.
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