Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Destiny Debate: This is How the US Election May Decide the Ukraine War" video.

however either way whether a civil war happens or not. I think the new Post Putin Russia will have a weak Russian Moscow gov and Russian military being controlled by Oligarchs and their PMCs, the Russian federation will be a Russian confederation where Russian provinces and republics have a lot more autonomy functioning practically as independent countries paying lip service to being part of the Russian fedeation , these Russian provinces and republics will have their own militias, Russian PMCs and Militias will be the real Russian military in a post putin Russia. with Russia becoming a great game of influence between China and USA. I think even the Russian federation may fracture within a decade gradually after the war is over with new countries being formed int he Caucasus and East of the Urals.
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X is crawling with Russian bots. yep when this war is over, I think Elon is going to lose a lot of his net worth. when his Russian investors liquidate all the stocks in their company. DISASTER. Ive heard at least 50 percent of his investors in X and Tesla are from the Russians. that is why Elon has been talking to Putin a lot lately, since Elon Thiel and other billionaires have been used by the Russians as a funnel of money to Trump to the tune of what I heard billions of USD. yes that is why Trump bragged about getting 35 million USD per month from Elon a few months back. This money is distributed among his supporters in hte Rep party, that is why he got nominated, all that billions of USD in Russian money to ensure Trump wins the election is too sweet for the corrupt politicos of the Rep party, heck some of the money even goes to the USA far lefties like the USA green party etc so it weakens the demo party. If Kamala wins the elections, the Russians will much lessen giving money to USA politicos or even stop it and liquidate the stocks they own in Elon's companies, imagine a run on his stocks, that would ruin Elon Musk.
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now my projection of what will happen ahead after this war is over. I still think Putin will probably die shortly after the war is over. and there will be a power struggle. I think if Russia loses the war, Putin will be gone sooner, and less damage on teh Russian economy and the new gov who withdraws from ukraien will be supported by the USA and EU so will have a solid hold on power and economy. HOwever if Russia wins the war, while Putin consoldiates on his power, the economy will get worse. no USA aid to prop up the Russian economy. and when Putin dies he has no heir and there will be a bloody power struggle which becomes a civil war. possibly 5-10 years after the Ukraine war is over. So I posit a Russian defeat in the war is better than the Russians winning it.
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well Ive been saying since 2022, the USA elections of 2024 will determine the final outcome of this war, in my opinion, if Kamala wins esp if the dems sweep the house and senate, well, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war in Ukraine, Russia's economy cannot take 4 more years of war, esp. from what I hear Kamala and her advisory team which will be totally new as she will fire most if not all of Bidens national advisory team and kamala and her team are even more pro Ukraine hawks than Biden and his team. Kamala wants to finish the war in her first term and will probably lift all restrictions on Ukrainian use of USA weapons on Russian soil, massive uptick in US aid to Ukraine, and the western artillery ammo production will be reaching Russian parity by 2025. Not surprised if South Korea becomes a major arms supplier to Ukraine going through USA and Poland to ship weapons and ammo to Ukraine esp. artillery ammo and jets(the South Korean FA-50 which is a very good multi role South Korean combat aircraft and cheapo too). Maybe even Swedish Gripens can be supplied to the Ukrainians in 2025 and the French Mirage 2000 is coming too in early 2025. 2025 will be annus Horribilis for the Russians, and 2025 will also be a pivotal year for the war in Ukraine which I think will see possible pivotal battles like the upcoming Pokrovsk battle which might tip the war to Ukraine's favour . I think in this scenario war ends a Putin's removal from power by Russian elites as the Russians cut their losses to preserve as much of their economy and military , as the Russian economy starts coming apart by 2026 and the new regime now does serious negotiations to end the war on Ukraine's terms. Possibly a Russian defeat at Pokrovsk or some major battle is the cassus belli to have Putin removed. The resulting negotiations will probably result in the Russians withdrawing back to Russia including Crimea, in return the west lifts all sanctions on Russia, unfreezes all Russian assets in the west normalizes relations with the west, and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 90s borders. Also to sweeten the deal and to keep the Russian economy stable, some economic aid to Russia from the USA. Ukraine will win the war with a much weakened Russia economically and militarilly that is turning inward to stabilize its economy and politics. and stabilize law and order. Russia wont be a threat to its neighbours for a few to several decades.
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now as a counterpoint, if Trump wins the elections esp. if the reps sweep the house and senate, well Trump will cut off all aid to Ukraine. The Russians will take all of the Donbass in 2025 and achieve operational success in the battlefield, as Ukrainian morale collapses. I think war will end in 2026 with negotiations, with Russia having the upper hand. Ukraine gives up all rights to the Donbass and Crimea and in return a peace treaty is put forward which recognizes borders at the current line. Also Ukraine remains neutral, the Zelensky gov falls. replaced by a new neutralist gov. . All sanctions on Russia are lifted by the USA under Trump but the EU still maintains sanctions on Russia. Ukraine does not join the EU and or NATO. USA and EU however give a lot of rebuild aid to Ukraine with Trump favouring his friends companies to rebuild Ukraine. UK , Germany other NATO countries and France help in rebuilding the Ukrainian military. Meanwhile the Russian economy is in shambles despite the lifting of the major sanctions. its military in shambles however the Putin regime survives. Putin rebuilds his economy and military but Russia is not in a position to threaten its neighbours probably in the next decade.
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