Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Andreas Umland - Will Peace with Russia Depend on who Suceeds Putin, as Regime Becomes more Fragile." video.

  1. also Russia seems to be trying to switch its economy to a war time economy, while advantagous in the short run it will be a disaster in the long run, after the war is over and Russia has lost the war , this will contribute to Russian economic collapse esp. when no foreign investor is stupid enough to come back to a Russia in unrest and economic political chaos to help it convert back to a civilian economy, not only contribute to economic collapse but also massively hinder the economic recovery of Russia, once Russian industry is retooled to a war economy its very hard to retool it back to a civilian one, without a stable gov. and foreign investments.
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  2. as for the Russian nationalists yep , with the oligarchs and political figures forming their own PMCs private armies , this will really be bad after the war is over esp. with Putin gone and a Russian defeat coupled with political and economic chaos add to that the Russian army soldiers not paid , and the only one paying are the PMCs and there is a polititcal struggle for succession to the Russian leadership and add into the mix Russian ultranationalists, ethnic non Russian secessionists, criminals, warlords etc. also in the background no Russian central gov or a fragile central gov. with lots of weapons and lots of Russian ex military who know how to use them and angry at the Russian gov.
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  3. I think the most pirvotal event in the war is the USA presidental elections of 2024. Putin is counting on anti Ukrainian elements of the US rep party to win the US elections. and I expect Putin to escalate this war in 2024 so that he tries to influence US voters and try to scare them to elect a Pro Peace USA pres. The escalation will include the use of Chemical weapons on the battlefield, moving Russian nukes around and doing more nuclear threat rhetorics and nuke tests. This might result in war jitters and possibly crash the US stock markets hard, which results in a recession in 2024. and that is the worse thing that can happen in a US elections cycle having a US economic recession happen during the year of US presidential elections. Putin will do anything to influence the outcome of the US elections. If a Pro Ukraine US pres. wins 2024, Putin will get even more desperate even with Chinese military support and probably order the use of nukes in 2025 to end the war in his favour, and I think that will be Putin's downfall. I think his own people will not only refuse the order but also isolate him from power and decision making. maybe even kill him. I think peace will come in 2025. with a total withdrawal from Ukraine by Russian forces, putting all the blame on Putin. and asking the west for financial aid and support to stave off Russian economic collapse as Russia slides into political and economic chaos. I think in the aftermath after this war is over. will be massive. the geopolitical face of the world will be signficantly affected similiar to the end of the Gulf war in 91 with a new world order. I think Xinping will not get a 4th term in fact , he might even be replaced during his term and replaced with a pro west Chinese leader. the Pro Russian leaders of Hungary , and Croatia will be replaced after the next elections. A massive stock market boom in 2025, I think a massve stock market crash in 2024 due to WW3 fears and a massive post war vicotry boom in 2025. Russia will have a decade long unrest stretching even into the 2030s. and there will vbe a low level civil war, as the new Russian gov. tries to take control of the Russian fed from armed groups. of ultranationalists to secessionists. Russia will be a geopolitical head ache for a decade or two to come after this war is over. and a great game in paticular for USA/NATO, China, Turkey etc. who wiill want to influence politics within the Russian fed for resource gain.
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  4. when you deal with Putin it has to be from a position of strength, atl east with overwhelming poltical economic and military strength. Putin only respects force back up with military power. and Putin will never give up he will try to compromise to get at least something out of it and he will see it as a win. and he has a low opinion of the west. However in this case USA does not want Putin in power anymore he has become a grave geopolitical threat. and Putin still thinks he can compromise his way out of this war and still retain power. wont happen, this war will be Putin's death blow.
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  5. my reply to Andreas, the Russian people have not felt the economic impact of the war, yet, when they do, they will rebel.
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  6. The Russian diaspora after this war is over Putin gone and Russia sliding into political and economic chaos will be worse than the 90s and even 1917 to 1922. millions of Russian refugees flooding into Europe to escape chaos and unrest and economic collapse in Russia.
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  7.  @SiliconCurtain  Russsia will be a geopolitical headache for decades , a massive somalia mirroring the warlord era of China in the 1920s. Russia will become a great game in the 21st century with USA , China Turkey and other players trying to influence Russian factions to control reseources again very simliar to how the great powers of USA, GB, France, Japan were influencing the warlords of China in the 1920s for cheap resources and economic gain. along with profiting selling weapons to the warlords. Something simliar will happen to Russia post war.
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