Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Paul Warburg" channel.

half of that war chest is frozen in western banks. and currently being slowly given to Ukraine haha
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I dont think the Buryats want to go to Ukraine and are resisting conscription that is why Putin are currently recruiting North Koreans and passing them off as Buryats its that bad in the Russian army these days, in fact, I predict after the war is over , Putin is gone and Russia goes into Time of Troubles 2.0 with Moscow busy with other things, you will have law less ness in Siberia and the Buryats will probably form their own militia and become autonomous enough to be independent with support from China.
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there was already a brain drain in the past in the 90s , the Russian post fall of USSR diaspora when millions of Russians left Russia for the west. Many of them returned to Russia in the 2000s, however the brain drain really exacerbated the economic issues of 90s Russia. Yes its economy was growing rapidly due to western investments, freeing of the economy from gov constraints etc. but what happened was that the brain drain of the 90s really affected Russian tech industry which was really stunted until the 2010s , its so bad that China leapfrogged ahead of Russia technologically. while Russia was left in USSR tech. rut. and had to import its electronics and did not really develop a tech industry. Due to strong corruption and gov mismanagement , the monies for the Russian tech industry was looted by the Russian gov. and instead they were buying cheapo Chinese tech products. (reason why develop your own tech industry when you can import it cheapo from China and skim the money alloted by the Russian gov for this ).
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well if Russia has to buy North Korean artillery ammo (which now makes up 50 to 60 percent of Russian arty ammo stockpilie) and NK missles and hiring NK soldiers to be cannon fodder, you know the Russian attrition problem is bad, to the point the Russians are not even taking up offers of 4K USD per month to fight in Ukraine, yep even the poor Russians are not that stupid, what is 4K USD worth when you cant even spend it since you are kaput(75 percent chances of death in Ukraine).k
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the economic effects of this war will hit the Russians very hard after the war is over. all the countries(Chinese Indians , Saudis , UAE) who lent money to the Russians under the table with high interest rates will come back and claim interest payment either in currency or in resources(at high discounts). esp. if Russia loses this war, coupled with political instability, and possible collapse of law and order also causes a Russian economic collapse after the war as Russia becomes a failed state. Russia's creditors will want their money back with interest and will probably start seizing Russian assets if the Moscow gov cant comply by force. (esp. for the Chinese).
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brilliant explanation on the Russian economic situation. VERY GOOD
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yah 1 or 2 nukes make create a very bad day, and the USA counterstrike will create a very bad day for the Russians and USA missles are a lot more accurate than the Russians.
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he wants the rare earth metals. and Zelensky is doing tough deals with Trump.
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agree with USSR collapsed but collapsed more or less peacefully amicably and still lost of people died as internal civil war and wars occured between the Former USSR states. the Fall of the Russian federation will be a lot more worse and brutal it will not go peacefully , I predict Russia will go by way of Syria with Putin playing the role of Assad 2.0 , a confusing multi factionial civil war within Russia supported by various global powers namely USA/Ukraine/NATO, China, and Turkey/Saudi but it will be a lot worse and bigger than Syria noting much bigger economy, population , geography and noting Russia still has tens of thousands of nukes in storage. I think Russia will look somewhat like it was depicted in the movie Babylon AD.
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@klawlor3659 yah whatever more bot lies
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well I according to excerpts from the latest Bob Woodward book War, the Russians were strongly thinking of using nukes in Ukraine after the highly successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Oct 2022 which retook Kherson and repelled the Russians from the Kharkov oblast. and retook 50 percent of the territory they lost from Feb to May 2022. Mauling 3 Russian divisions in the process(Russians lost 450 tanks and APCs and IFVs mostly captured intact and abandoned at Izyum alone in Oct 2022). Biden send strongly worded warnings to the Russians via Jake Sullivan and Lloyd Austin basically threatening war with the Russians if they used nukes in Ukraine. Shoigu reportedly quipped back that he doesnt like being threatened, to which Lloyd Austin replied back to him that I am the leader of the strongest military power in human history and I dont make threats... that probably scared the crap out of the Russians so much I dont think they will be using nukes any time soon. the cost for the Russians will be too great. The rest of the world will turn on Russia at least economically. Basically if Russia uses nukes not only does Russia go to war with NATO and will probably lose the war in Ukraine but also will suffer so much economic isolation that its economy will collapse and the assets of the Russian oligarchs stored in western nations will be confiscated.
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its very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends. Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up. So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more. I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war. Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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@klawlor3659 hahaah bit of a ork fanboy eh??? =awwwwww
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@poleteli yah whatever bot. More amusing Russkie propoganda
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well its true the Russian economy is kaput and with high inflation and the Russian rainy day fund getting low, however I highly suspect they are borrowing lots of money from the Chinese , Indians , Saudis, UAE, under the table at very high interest , along with oil sales which btw, the Russians are just barely making a profit which is propping up the economy therefore prolonging the war. Short term this is great, Russia has the money to fund the war, buy North Korean artillery ammo(which now constitute 50 to 60 percent of Russia artillery ammo stocks) and soldiers and missles and Iranian drones, missles and artillery ammo(10 percent of the Russian artillery ammo stocks) all at inflated prices paid for in a mix of non Russian ruble currency, resources and weapons tech. Short term gain, Putin gets to continue his war as his life, regime and legacy literally depend on winning this war so Putin is desperate and to the wall to do anything including begging the North koreans to intervene and funding Donald Trump's presidential campaign and the western far right and far left political parties to the tune of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, he needs the war to continue since as the war stands, Russia is not winning this war, in fact, in the current offensive, Russia since Jan 1 2024, in nearly 10 months of all out offensives, Russia has taken 0.25 percent of Ukrainian territory(Russia currently holds around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory), suffered 320K casualties 10K destroyed tanks, IFVs and APCs, at the battle of Vulhedar alone it took the Russians 2 years, 50K casualties and 1k destroyed tanks APCs and IFVs just to take a town(with a pre war population of 15K) and have essentially captured a pile of rubble, ruins. The Russians have been buying lots of North Korean artillery ammo missles and now buying North Korean mercenarie(at 2K USD per soldier per month) s to fight in Ukraine since regular Russians despite offers of 4K USD per month to fight in Ukraine are refusing to fight. also Ukraine has been drone bombing Russian oil refiniries and ammo depots a lot with Russian air defenses barely able to stop them, also the Ukrainians actually invaded Russia and took an area the size of Los Angeles in a week. and for nearly 5 months now, the Russians have been throwing men and tanks just trying to kick the Ukrainians out but the Ukrainians are still holding a large chunk of Russian territory. Yep the Russians are not winning this war and with a looming Kamala harris win at the USA presidential elections, well , the RUssian economy cannot take another 4 years of war at this rate.
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Also while the Russian soldiers seem to be earning a lot of money , its all paid in Rubles which is lately depreciating, Currently standing at 1 USD = 104 Rubles. when on the strongest on June 2022 it was 1 USD to 54 rubles. also prices of foodstuffs and other products have been going up in Russia signficantly lately. that there are butter and egg shortages to the point criminals are stealing them . the price of a block of butter for example in Russia on average lately is 2.47 USD. , in Vancouver Canada is 4 USD. The average Russian earns 1130 USD per month, the average Canadian earns 5404 USD per month. Prices of foodstuffs in Russian have risen 35 percent since the war started. and also the Russians ruble is worth a lot less compared to hte western currencies like in Russia the black market rate for buying USD is 1 USD = 200 rubles. in Vancouver Canada most currency exchanges will not take the Russian ruble those that do the rate is selling your Rubles to USD , is 250 Rubles for 1 USD. and Russian soldiers, are only paid in Rubles. which will probably not be worth much after this war goes along esp. after this war is over.
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I think Russians in general are sick of Putin's war that is why he had to bring in the NOrth Koreans , an act of desperation.
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looking at how hollowed out the Russian stored weapons due to corruption , not surprised the Russian nuke stockpile is even more hollowed out. estimate say at least 75 percent of Russian nuke warheads dont work.
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so my view on what happens, is that Trump does negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. talks break down, Trump puts blame on Ukraine for the negotiation's failure. and Ukraine continues to fight, Trump stops all aid to Ukraine , and washes his hands of the war, however Ukraine's NATO allies step in the breech and dramatically increase aid to Ukraine, esp. monetary aid, and those nations buy weapons from the USA to ship to Ukraine which trump allows. and the war goes on.
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why??? cause the Russians need cannon fodder and meat to fight the Ukrainians , the Russians are losing the war.
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yah ive heard of stories of Russian IT guys, university graduates who were unlucky enough to be mobilized in late 2022, well most of them became casualites with a 50 percent death rate, they probably found out the smart educated Russians dont make for good soldiers compared to the criminals and working class. many smart educated russians already ran away from Russia. and the ones left are probably in hiding, paid off the recruiters or faking invalidation. The blue collar working class Russians and lower class unemployed they not stupid either, they saw how shit the war in Ukraine is , even if they get recruited their chances of survival are somewhat higher than Storm Z meat units. In Russian tactics, Storm Z goes up front first, followed by Russian mobiks, followed by regular army , then by their elite units.
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and its going to get worse, and the NATO summit June 2025 is coming up and I think Trump musk vance nad hesgeth will talk down to the rest of NATO and we will talk back to them, we are going to have a NATO minus the USA, and good we dont need a Trumpo musk USA interfering in NATO. we should not buy any american weaponry and Europe should go on its own. and defend what is left of the western world. Also Europe and the rest of the free world should support anti trump Americans to restore sanity back to the USA.
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well from what I know, most of the soldiers the NKs sent to Russia are of the lower class, the lower quality part of the NK army the expendables being paid 2K USD per month a pop direct to the NK gov to be cannon fodder in Russia. supposedly Putin want at least 150K NKs to fight in Ukraine. Yep from what I know about NK soldiers is from their labour quality as the Russians have long used cheapo North Korean labourers. and as Labourers their quliaty is quite good , hard working and cheapo. . However more expensive than the migrant Central Asians, so I think in combat they will perform OK, quality wise I put them about similiar to Russian regular army units. Their motivation is better only fighitng for the NK regime, not for the Russians. HOwever I think they might easilly break if you air drop choco pies to them or blast South Korean K pop music to get them to defect en masse.
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Not surprised if Russia loses this war and goes into turmoil, China might just march in with the PLA into Russian far east and Siberia and claim peace keeping duties. to control their borders and prevent a flood of Russian refugees heading to China. later they annex these regions. China will probably support Russian ethnics in Siberia and the far east for their independence and turn them into Chinese puppet states.
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@Vitalij_R2 yep that is why I said tough he did not sign, waiting for a better deal.
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and the longer the war goes, the more damaged the Russian economy is. I dont think Trump can end the war in 2025, possibly 2026. and post war, all problems the Russian gov has been artificially holding back will come streaming full force vs. the Russian public. I expect venezuelan style inflation, Russian ruble possibly becomes venezuelan pesos or toilet paper money. and Russians just start trading in USD. or any other foreign currency. the Russians will have a very bad economic crisis post war. and probably sow unrest and the Russian gov will respond with brutality which will cause more unrest. There is no soft landing for Russia after this war is over.
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I believe in this one by Malcolm Nance, musk and his puppet trumpo wants to create a greater america(with territory stretching from the Mexican border to the North Pole and Greenland) technocratic dictatorship influenced by the writings of Curtis Yarvin, like literally Silicon valley is controlled by Musk , thiel, and Sachs along with Bannon and Vance who are followers of Yarvin. Trump is just a puppet in it for the money. musk and his stooge trump are destroying American global influence to create domestic tensions int he USA , create a recession enough so that Trump is able to call for martial law state of emergency. and get authoritarian powers. This may sound crazy and out of science fiction but its quite real. WE HAVE TO STOP THIS. Malcolm Nance interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya3Q0-VCk1Q&t=394s Curtis Yarvin's technocratic dictatorship ideology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH0NlCAZuFM&t=2281s
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well Ive heard that Russian ships are operating on Skeleton crews since many sailors have been sent to Ukraine as regular line infantry or cannon fodder meat. if war with NATO ever broke out, the Russian navy is kaputski.
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I predict Russian civil war and dissolution in the next few years. Ukraine does not accept peace terms from USA and Russia and backed even more strongly by the EU, UK and Canada. meanwhile USA suffers a constiutional crisis and a deep recession due to Trump policies which results in political turmoil in the next few years. So while Russian and the USA fall into their own political economic social turmoils, China and the EU are waiting and watching on the backgrounds. Not surprised if China seizes control of Russian siberia and far east in the name of Peacekeeping and blockades Taiwan while the USA is busy with its trump caused economic and political turmoil. and Ukraine regains its lost territories and possibly even annexes more Russian territory in the process as reparations. USA is still the strongest economic and military power on earth even after this consitutional crisis and will probably be welcomed back in the western alliance fold but the relationships will not be the same. and the EU/NATO and China will be the real winners. USA will not have the same political clout and influence as it did before Trump was elected.
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this changes my calculus, and yes Russian tactics these days esp. at Kursk is crazy and unsustainable like jsut attacking and attacking on open ground in the same places where the Ukrainains whacked them hard and sustaining massive casualties is crazy. That is why Putin had to bring in the North Koreans. since the Russians finally found out that its suicide to fight vs. Ukraine. your chances of survival is like 25 percent. with the average life expectancy in the Russian army fighting the Ukrainians is 1 week. or less. So that is why they had to buy North Korean soldiers to fight. and from what I hear, the NKs are bringing in 100K more NK troops since the NKs lost thousands of troops in the recent week so much that the 10K NKs are not enough. and Putin is buying them at 2K USD per head. 4K USD for the officers. and these are regular NK army troops not the elite. 4K USD per month is simply not worth 25 percent surival rate for Russians.
1
not to mention in a WW3 scenario the west still maintains air dominance, and the Russian army is a joke. 85 percent of the standing Russian army is struggling to win vs. Ukraine. what more if Russia goes to war with NATO, Desert storm 2.0 with the Russians playing Saddam Iraqi army in 91.
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also besides the Russians being scared of war with NATO, the Russians are not confident that the nukes they have will actually work, its been estimated 50 to 75 percent of their nukes will not work when used due to poor maintainance corruption etc. Just looking at how they maintained the stored weapon stocks they have since the cold war USSR and that 50 to 75 percent of the weapons did not work, well nukes require very high maintenance and the Russians still have nukes stored for use which date back to the 70s. I think the failure rate for Russian nukes is probably around 90 percent. and judging by how their recent nuke tests failed including that Russian satan misssle which hilariously blew up in its silo during launch. well. I can say if the Russians and USA had a nuke exchange, the Russians would be a field of glass and the USA would be somewhat hurt. War with NATO means the Russians would lose a conventional and nuclear war and China and India and their so called Iranian and NK allies will not help them in teh very least. None of them want to committ suicide for Russia. That is why all these red lines the Russians put up were crossed without the Russians doing much of anything.
1
ive been saying this since 2022, that everything east of the urals and the Caucasus will probably secede from the Russian fed in the event of a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war, and Russia entering a time of troubles 2.0 or 1917 civil war 2.0 , and China will probably influence these independence groups to have them form their own indepedent nations dependent on Beijing's support. Not to mention Beijing flooding these areas with Chinese migrants and slowly annexing them esp. the border regions with China.
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Yes looks like trump did and I already figured this one out when he was elected, I was just hoping he will be his usual backstabbing trump self. and backstab putin but looks like the past week just proved he was a pUtin paid stooge all along. As I said many a time, Trump and the entire rep party has been paid for in billions of USD in Russian oligarch money funnelled through Musk and Thiel and others. to Rep super pacs. with the express purpose to get Trump elected. and also the Russians have compromising intel on Trump. I predict the peace talks will fail, the Ukrainains backed up by the EU Canada will refuse Trump imposed peace deals and the war will rumble on and continue. I think Trump pissed off by this , puts 25 percent Tariffs on the supporters of Ukraine and Ukraine itself, NATO supporters of Ukraine will increase their defense spending and armaments production and support Ukraine. USA will probably remove tariffs from Russia, normalize relations while prohibiting arms sales to Ukraine or supporters of Ukraine and posible 25 to 50 percent across the board tariffs on supporters of Ukraine who will be defiant. Basicaly a brutal trade war occurs between most of NATO (except for Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia) vs. the USA. USA also withdraws most troops from Europe in the guise of military spending cuts and trump even tells the Russians they have the green light to attack NATO nations. The Russians and Chinese are much delighted by all this, however this done not stop the war, in fact, the Ukrainians with all constraints removed with increased EU UK and Canadian support continue the war and focus on defense and attacking Russian oil infrastructure with increased intensity, with the USA now acting like an ally of the Russians. US navy escorts Russian shadow fleet, intel is given on Ukrainian plannned attacks to the Russian from the USA. etc. Meanwhile a consitutional crisis is rising in the USA, with Trump trying to control the judiciary and trying to control the FED. as trump interferes with the 2016 house and senate elections and allegations of voter fraud occurs calls for Trump to be impeached increases as the demos control the house and senate with Trump not recognizing the results. as USA economy goes into recession with rising inflation and there is protests in the streets of the US cities. Trump I think calls for martial law and the arrest and dissoluation of Senate and congress and this results in more chaos and unrest.
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also notice the Russians are getting more desperate lately bringing in the North Koreans etc. the Russians know not only do they have a economic problem but a manpower problem. The average life expectancy of a Russian soldier is around 5 months before he is killed or wounded by that time tthe average Russian soldier would have earned 1 million Rubles or 9500 USD. This sum is massive for your average Russian, however the Russian gov likes to cheat , like listing dead Russian soldiers as missing or deny they were recruited to withhold death benefits and wages and save money and they force Russian soldiers who finished their contracts to serve longer and can only get out by bribing Russian officers. , this abuse is even more blatant towards foreign volunteers and convicts. that is why even with all the incentives the Russian only recruits around 30K soldiers a month and the casualty rate for the Russian army stands at around 1500 soldiers a day. The war is costing the Russians 1 billion USD a day not counting the weapons they have to buy or produce. along wiht the cost maintaining the Russian infrastructure.
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@goodlife6277 I just bust a gut laughing at you. hoho
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@goodlife6277 sorry you are not my type so do not try to date me. boy hahaha
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@poleteli actually yes its happening bot
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@poleteli keep coping bot Russia has to buy North Korean missles since its running low very embarassing
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@poleteli yes NK products and Oreshink the Russians are very amusing losing the war, also trying to recruit houthis and taliban for Ukraine.
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and also a parallel to Russia to the Qing dynasty China, during the massive Taiping rebellion in the late 19th century which really weakened the Qing Dynasty, the Qing dynasty government had to allow local governors of provinces to create their own private armies who were effectively independent from the chinese central gov and can conduct their own military policies vs. the Taipings. and they were effective in defeating the Taiping rebels. The Qing dynasty gov lost a lot of control of over their provinces and the Qing dynasty later collapsed due to this as various governors of Chinese provinces and their private armies joined the rebellion vs. the Qing dynasty in 1911, and later became warlords in the start of the Chinese civil war which did inot end until 1949. well the Russians in the current Ukraine war allowed the creation of many PMCs to help get recruits to fight in the war. These PMCs private armies pay and treat their troops much better than the Russian army and they work for Russian elites and oligarchs. I suspect post war when Putin tries to outlaw PMCs while purging the elites to consolidate his power, they will rebel with their PMCs causing a RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR.
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yep highly agree with you and effect on the Russian economy and industries is not only on weapons but across the board, the war has done much damage to the Russian economy and Putin's politican standing and the prestige of the Russian military is down the toilet. meanwhile Ukraine has become a leader in drone tech. which will have massive future implications.
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I think the Russian elites are just waiting to see who wins the USA 2024 elections. If Kamala wins which I think is most likely , the Russian elites will cut their losses and get rid of Putin in 2025 or in 2026. then end the war, with a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in return for lifting of all sanctions and normalized relations with hte west, the Russian elites will do this do preserve as much of their economy and military from further destruction. The Russian economy simply cannot take another 4 years of this kind of war.
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most of the Russian oil refniries are positioned in western and southern Russia, reason for this is that the biggest export of Russian energy is to the EU. Now since that is gone, well. the Russians just cant build new facilities in the Far East. it takes years to do that. and the Russians are paying for this heavilly.
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you can tell the Russians are desperate when you have Russian propogandists like history legends saying that Russian golf carts and motorcycles are the new cavalry and very effective LOL
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and the war in Ukraine will send this demographic crisis over teh edge. when Russia loses, you will have a massive Russian diaspora worse than the 90s. maybe comparable to the diaspora of the 1917 to the 1920s. also the chaos in Russia will result in lots of deaths, not to mention the failure of Russian energy infrastructure esp. during a bad winter will result in a lot of deaths from exposure esp. among the Russian elderly (ironically many are Putin supporters).
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@Notrusbot yes because Russia should already have defeated Ukraine by itself like 10X the economy 10X the firepower and 5X the population yet Russia cannot seem to win against midget Ukraine and has to call help....I CALL THAT RUSSIAN DEFEAT.
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@Niek1001 and also more money, and resources from Russia.
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